AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[Dasari]

Devesh,

The Congress don't give a damn right now about Visakha to TN border because they cannot win 2014 elections. Currently they only have chance in T and therefore it is strategic for their 2014 victory. Is that clear?

Mine becomes a Freudan slip on how the state division is going to happen based on who becomes the strategic partner to center in the next elections. You don't think what T separatists and center are doing to SA, SA and center can do the same to T. I can't call this hypocrasy on your part- is it because you live in this blatant entitlement day-in and day-out?

[devesh]

What's this stupidity about "future investments will slow down in Hyd" so its an equal equal to the loss of legitimate share in expected revenues from its current assets to rest of AP ?
Either maliciously this falsehood is being peddled or people peddling it have no basic idea of ownership and investment returns (I.e economics or finance) to peddle such stupid claims..

What happens to the fate of investment flow into Hyd's assets in a future T is entirely in T govt's hands.
But what happens to the future of revenue flows from the state capital's current assets is entirely a question of how much was taken(or withheld) from each of the region(in past 60 years) to invest in the assets of current capital called Hyderabad.
If 60% is the contribution of SA(including the central share apportioned to the state on population basis) then 60% of current revenues from current assets should be apportioned to SA regions in perpetuity. Or the present value of future cash flows from these current assets has to be calculated and given as a lump sum to the treasury of the new SA state.
If 80% is the contribution then 80% should be the share.

Again let me repeat

First there is no basis for giving onlee the debts of AP to SA (when much of it was incurred in developing the infra in capital) .
Second the revenues of Hyderabad are the AP people's revenues - they are generating onlee because of 60 years of investments by AP govt and the common people in its infrastructure with a belief in the common capital.
Third the future trajectory has nothing to do with the apportioning of revenue streams from current assets of Hyderabad.

before we get into this: what exactly are you defining as "taken" or "withheld"? is it synonymous with "taxes" here? also, if what was taken from each region is the benchmark, then SA has given 52% in the latest fiscal year, in terms of the State Revenues. so, if 52% was taken from SA, then you are saying 52% of the existing assets should be gifted to the SA govt's treasury as a lump sum, correct?

future investment in Hyd is not entirely in T govt's hands. what will a guy like Lagadapati do after bifurcation is not in T-govts hands. he might not abandon his existing investment in Hyd, but he might simply stop any further investment from his profits into Hyd itself. so, there is no guarantee that Hyd's share of the revenues of the combined regions will remain the same. under such a scenario, an arid and dry region cannot be asked to bear unrealistic debt burden not supported by future revenues, compared to one of the most fertile regions in all of the subcontinent which also has the delta of 2 major rivers contributing to its natural richness.

these considerations will be a part of the division.

and I have yet to see any solid figures for the debt-amount that was spent on developing the Hyderabad. constantly repeating that "most of it" was spent on Hyderabad amounts to a Goebbelsian tactic and nothing more. unless someone can prove that a huge chunk of the existing 1.8 Lakh core of public debt was spent on purely developing Hyderabad, and provide further, number which indicate that much of the public debt was incurred in projects that fall under in Telangana region, there is no basis for this argument that the division of debt on the basis of POPULATION PROPORTION is fundamentally biased.

and let's remember that too: the document linked in ShyamSP's post says that debt is to be divided on the basis of population. not some magic figure of 60-40 that they pulled out of their a**es.

[devesh]

....

and your last line is a freudian slip: either you will remain with us or we will screw you until your children and their children also keep paying for your "sins". when you are fondly hoping for such an outcome, what is the basis of your grand-standing?

Devesh ji,
First you speak nonsense. Then when replied with an allegorical tale of cat and monkey (apt to the situation) , you allege it as a Freudian slip.

Let me point out your earlier nonsense is more qualified to be called a Freudian slip going by your own metrics of psych analysis.

you will have to tell me what part of my earlier post is a "freudian slip". you do understand the context of that phrase, don't you ?!

let's drop the "ji". at this point, after the adjectives you've used, it's more superficial than anything else.

[Altair]

Relax guys.. Nobody is giving Hyderabad to Telangana anywhere in near future.

[Lilo]

after bifurcation, there is no reason to expect that SA investments will continue to flow in to Hyderabad at the same rate. what this means is by the end of the next 10 years, Hyderabad's tax revenues (as a % of the T+AP states' revenues) might very well drop by close to 25%. as another capital is developed in SA, there is no reason to expect that revenue share of Hyd will not witness a relative drop.

as of right now, what we have is T (without Hyderabad) providing 31.5% of the revenues. if you add Hyderabad, it comes out to 48%. so, essentially, the GOI estimates that Hyderabad will witness a roughly 35-40% decrease in its share of revenues to the combined Tax revenues of Telangana and AP.

that's drastic, you might say. but it might very well turn out to be true. there is no reason to expect that SA elites, given the burden of building their own capital, will continue to invest so heavily in Hyderabad.

before we get into this: what exactly are you defining as "taken" or "withheld"? is it synonymous with "taxes" here? also, if what was taken from each region is the benchmark, then SA has given 52% in the latest fiscal year, in terms of the State Revenues. so, if 52% was taken from SA, then you are saying 52% of the existing assets should be gifted to the SA govt's treasury as a lump sum, correct? {When one is dividing Hyd why is one again including hyd's contribution when measuring T's contribution to state govt revenue ?
Why will just the latest fiscal year be picked to measure a region's contribution ?}

future investment in Hyd is not entirely in T govt's hands. what will a guy like Lagadapati do after bifurcation is not in T-govts hands. he might not abandon his existing investment in Hyd, but he might simply stop any further investment from his profits into Hyd itself. so, there is no guarantee that Hyd's share of the revenues of the combined regions will remain the same. under such a scenario, an arid and dry region cannot be asked to bear unrealistic debt burden not supported by future revenues, compared to one of the most fertile regions in all of the subcontinent which also has the delta of 2 major rivers contributing to its natural richness.

these considerations will be a part of the division

you can buy or not buy. but it is a common sense argument that a lot of the investment flowing from SA business tycoons will get diverted into building a new capital for AP. and also, as shown by the numbers in my previous post, SA currently contributes 52% of the revenues, and they will have the burden of 58% of the public debt. that's not a "huge" disparity. comparisons to British, calling it "huge" debt burden, etc are all dramatizations which are not grounded in reality

Devesh ji,
I am speaking about precisely these quotes.They are nonsense.
Let me repeat again.
You seem to believe that Hyd came out of thin air today and its assets and debt which determine its revenue (tax and non tax flows to the rest of the state), now after division you want it for T onlee , while palming off its debts to rest of the state as they supposedly can "bear" them ,while T cannot bear it.

Yes its that ridiculous.

When assets(along with debt) are apportioned (or liquidated) between stake holders its their past investments which determine their stake. Not their own current(or future) individual requirements.
Someone can't get a greater stake than he can legitimately otherwise expect just because he has a greater pressing need (to buy a car, or to marry off a daughter or to take care of his hospitalized family or whatever) .

Re:" ji" you are welcome to whatever you want , its your prerogative . I'll stick with what ever I want.
Re:Freudian slip , I don't believe in that stuff but then I was referring to your metrics of psych analysis - pointing out that your nonsense argument can also be construed so if one wants to.

[Muppalla]

Draft Reorganisation Bill calls for constitutional amendments

The Central government will implement Article 371 (D) of the Constitution that provides for equitable opportunities in employment and education in the successor States of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana after bifurcation.

The draft A.P. Reorganisation Bill, 2013, tabled in the Assembly on Monday says Article 371 (D) must be amended so that suitable provisions may be made for different zones in the State. Interestingly, the Bill seeks amendments to relevant provisions of the Constitution on other counts too, but it was not clear whether this has to be done through simple or absolute (two-thirds) majority in Parliament.

The first and the most debated issue is the ‘common capital’ status to Hyderabad, a term that finds no mention in the Constitution. TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu wondered how the Centre was going ahead with the provision of a common capital that had no precedent and accused it of misusing Article 3.

The Bill has also a contentious provision in that it envisages appointment of a common Governor to the successor States for a period of 10 years and vest him/her with “over riding powers”, a provision that is opposed by the protagonists of separate Telangana too.

Besides, the Governor, by invoking provisions under Article 371 (H), could exercise his individual judgment and his discretion would be final. “The validity of anything done by the Governor shall not be called in question on the ground that he ought or ought not to have acted in the exercise of his individual judgment,” according to the Bill.


The Governor would have the responsibility of ensuring the security of life, liberty and property of all those who reside in the common capital of Hyderabad. In addition to law and order, the Governor’s responsibility would extend to internal security and safety of all vital installations in the discharge of these functions. This transitory provision would be effective for a period of 10 years.


The draft Bill mandates amendment to Article 168, the provision dealing with constitution of Legislatures in States, for creation of Assembly and Council in the successor States.

According to the proposed Bill, Telangana would consist of 119 MLAs in Assembly, Council of 40 MLCs, 17 MPs in Lok Sabha and 7 MPs of Rajya Sabha. The successor state of Andhra Pradesh will have 175 elected MLAs, 50 MLCs, 25 MPs of Lok Sabha and 11 MPs of Rajya Sabha.

Without calling it UT, Hyd is defacto UT for 10 years. In case of common capital, maximum clause is only for capital but the Governor hold and Law and Order hold is beyond max and it is 10 years. Telangana folks are just in haste to get this passed and in their desperation they are getting the raw deal for their aspirations. It is a State without Greater Hyderabad for all purposes. Dumbo population and leaders who only know to say "Andhra" every minute for every breath but couldn't even see the bamboo sticks that are being pushed in. TRS made some noise but see T-Congis or even the T-BJPites. The bill is a drivel for all the AP but the fight is for the bill and against bill.

[Dasari]

Draft Reorganisation Bill calls for constitutional amendments

The Central government will implement Article 371 (D) of the Constitution that provides for equitable opportunities in employment and education in the successor States of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana after bifurcation.

The draft A.P. Reorganisation Bill, 2013, tabled in the Assembly on Monday says Article 371 (D) must be amended so that suitable provisions may be made for different zones in the State. Interestingly, the Bill seeks amendments to relevant provisions of the Constitution on other counts too, but it was not clear whether this has to be done through simple or absolute (two-thirds) majority in Parliament.

The first and the most debated issue is the ‘common capital’ status to Hyderabad, a term that finds no mention in the Constitution. TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu wondered how the Centre was going ahead with the provision of a common capital that had no precedent and accused it of misusing Article 3.

The Bill has also a contentious provision in that it envisages appointment of a common Governor to the successor States for a period of 10 years and vest him/her with “over riding powers”, a provision that is opposed by the protagonists of separate Telangana too.

Besides, the Governor, by invoking provisions under Article 371 (H), could exercise his individual judgment and his discretion would be final. “The validity of anything done by the Governor shall not be called in question on the ground that he ought or ought not to have acted in the exercise of his individual judgment,” according to the Bill.


The Governor would have the responsibility of ensuring the security of life, liberty and property of all those who reside in the common capital of Hyderabad. In addition to law and order, the Governor’s responsibility would extend to internal security and safety of all vital installations in the discharge of these functions. This transitory provision would be effective for a period of 10 years.


The draft Bill mandates amendment to Article 168, the provision dealing with constitution of Legislatures in States, for creation of Assembly and Council in the successor States.

According to the proposed Bill, Telangana would consist of 119 MLAs in Assembly, Council of 40 MLCs, 17 MPs in Lok Sabha and 7 MPs of Rajya Sabha. The successor state of Andhra Pradesh will have 175 elected MLAs, 50 MLCs, 25 MPs of Lok Sabha and 11 MPs of Rajya Sabha.

Without calling it UT, Hyd is defacto UT for 10 years. In case of common capital, maximum clause is only for capital but the Governor hold and Law and Order hold is beyond max and it is 10 years. Telangana folks are just in haste to get this passed and in their desperation they are getting the raw deal for their aspirations. It is a State without Greater Hyderabad for all purposes. Dumbo population and leaders who only know to say "Andhra" every minute for every breath but couldn't even see the bamboo sticks that are being pushed in. TRS made some noise but see T-Congis or even the T-BJPites. The bill is a drivel for all the AP but the fight is for the bill and against bill.

What do you mean by they are dumbos? Just because the law and order is under Telangana governor( he/she is not AP governor) , does it make UT? How does it mater that the DGP of the GHMC is free from the influence of the T CM. Isn't what ideally it should be? Also bear in mind that this can be easily changed and will be changed much before 10 years as long as the the same political benefits exists to the center. It is a small sacrifice for the greater control of GHMC area. We can be sympathetic that certain goonda giri cannot be done by T leaders, but for common T man does it matter?

Most importantly, T govt has full authority on the development and revenue rights of GHMC area which they can use to promote their interests. They can encourage or discourage companies/industries in GHMC area, pass laws, create incentives to promote T employment and so on. In addition, they get 10 years of free tax basis from 30 lakh so called settlers who will not dare to voice their opinion and at the same time reluctant to move out, uprooting their roots. It is like Gulf countries inviting Indian workers. In fact it is SA leaders that are dumb to accept this arrangement. I don't know what they get out of this stupid arrangement. They should pack thier bags immediately and move to the new capital, even if it means holding the secretariat in rented buildings. That way they will be on their feet much quicker and put this painful history behind.

[shyamoo]

During the YSR regime's time, a lot of real estate taxes collected ( thousands of crores ) from Hyderabad region were siphoned off Rayalaseema region. Factors like these need to be considered.

Lot of SA folks bought property in Hyd. The value of these properties have gone up. All of them will make money if and when they sell. Maybe not as much as they would have made without the de-merger. I don't see how this separation affects them. The separation, as I see it is, purely administrative. A few thousand jobs for T folks. Why will pvt businesses owned by SA folks up and leave Hyd or T region? It doesn't make any sense. Cost of setting up new business in SA region will be prohibitively high. Unless, the new T govt decides to add oppressive taxes/tariffs, I do not see anyone leaving T region soon.

An alternate argument to the above:
Common capital is a disaster in the making. Why will ( and why should ) SA folks care about Hyd after de-merger. No one in the history of the world has washed a rental car. That is what Hyd will be for SA folks for the next 10 years ( I don't blame them for that either ).

But I also wonder...

How much is Telangana really going to benefit out of this de-merger? Without a strong leader in T, a la NaMo, I'm afraid, the situation will deteriorate in T. There are enough natural resources in T region to make it a success. But without proper leadership and vision, I'm afraid this will end up in a disaster.

I'm from the T region. The heart says one thing and the head says something else. I had visions of a separate T region doing well with proper leadership. But for this to happen, a lot of things need to align properly. I realize that that is more or less wishfull thinking. Utopia is the word that comes to mind. Separate T region might happen. But I don't see the success happening.

I'm probably making arguments all over the place. That, precisely, is my point. I just don't know...

JMTC and all that....

[Dasari]

How much is Telangana really going to benefit out of this de-merger? Without a strong leader in T, a la NaMo, I'm afraid, the situation will deteriorate in T. There are enough natural resources in T region to make it a success. But without proper leadership and vision, I'm afraid this will end up in a disaster.

The people and leaders may speak different accent but their thinking and values are exactly identical on both sides. What it really means is that political corruption, nepotism will continue unabated. But there is one difference on T side.

When the promised rivers of prosperity fails to flow, guess who they will blame? - The settlers who were left behind. You already see the pissing match between T congress and TRS on who can use more foul lanuage against SA and get the bragging rights on who cares more for T. When the honeymoon of the new state is over, this will reach new heights. After all this trade is not the sole property of KCR and anybody with decent foul mouth can replicate. This is where the so called settlers have to vary about. My suggestion to them is not to wait until last minute, and try to move to safer places while there is at least some semblance of protection.

I'm from the T region. The heart says one thing and the head says something else. I had visions of a separate T region doing well with proper leadership. But for this to happen, a lot of things need to align properly. I realize that that is more or less wishfull thinking. Utopia is the word that comes to mind. Separate T region might happen. But I don't see the success happening.

I agree. As a resident of A region, though I'm pained that people with 2000 years of common heritage could not live together, my main fear is not that we are losing Hyderabad, Badrachalam, Polavaram or Power generation or Irrigation water. It is more about huge political vaccum created in a rudderless , debt ridden newstate. Can you imagine how the SA state would be under the CM like Jagan? It will be an all out caste war. You will see in few months the fights over the new capital - also known as road to new real estate millionaires. Already huge parcels of Ongole are bought by the forces to make the next kill. The most apt description for the new state is 'kukkalu chimpina vistari'. But T will not be that far behind either. When the golden goose is done, it will closely follow SA.

[Dasari]

What a show that KKR gave as a star batsman? I hope our batsmen in Southth Africa didn't get lessons from this batsman and end up calling retired hurt without facing a ball.

It appears that two days of Digvijay singh's marching orders sorted both CM and speaker. Apparently the congress HC told the state leaders that failing to pass the bill will make the TDP+BJP sweep the state, and their pilitical fortunes will come to an end, at least for the next 5-10 years. It seems that did the job. The whole SA congress became silent. So blame TDP+BJP if the state is formed before the elections.

[Altair]

I heard that KKR, Lagadapati are going to announce the launch of a new party(The word "Samaikhya Andhra" will be present in the name). Its in advanced stages as of now. The idea is to split TDP+BJP votes in SA.

[Yagnasri]

Just see YouTube interview of JP on the division. Seems to have got Jyanodayam on mafia nature.

[Muppalla]

What do you mean by they are dumbos? Just because the law and order is under Telangana governor( he/she is not AP governor) , does it make UT? How does it mater that the DGP of the GHMC is free from the influence of the T CM. Isn't what ideally it should be? Also bear in mind that this can be easily changed and will be changed much before 10 years as long as the the same political benefits exists to the center. It is a small sacrifice for the greater control of GHMC area. We can be sympathetic that certain goonda giri cannot be done by T leaders, but for common T man does it matter?

As long as T leaders/goons doesn't have control over lands the entire movers and shakers of T falls flat. The entire T movement if bluntly put is about a power to grab lands and assets.(again it not about grabbing from common settlers. It is also about grabbing from the same folks that got grabbed) Right now the power to do the same is even but some folks wanted more exclusivity and hence the impetus to the movement. That is why TRS is opposing these clauses. I don't seriously get into so called ideal/genuine reasons for Telangana state or about common T person. In my view if you have gone through my posts there is absolutely no gain to common T because of T state. There is absolutely no reason to have a state of their own. No new employment or no new investments will come to T because they have a new state. It is all about how they create their destiny. They have Laloo Yadav and Jharkhand models and they also have Raman Singh model in front of them. They also has Madam Mehebooba Mufti model too

In the same breath, loss of Hyderabad as something loss to SA is also hilarious to me. The whole revenue losses or some money losses is all hilarious and just pulp fiction. I understand that taxation on Hyd areas is what state is currently using for various programs.

For over a decade or so most of the investments are private sector and based on areas (SEZs etc) that are created. There are ample number of things that are there in SA region and that will generate sufficient revenues for the state. It takes about five to 10 years to put efforts such as Greater Vizag or Vijayawada+Guntur+Eluru+Tenali type structures to start flows. It is the taxation on these that creates revenue and there could be initial tensions but the SA side is far better equipped than Telangana minus Hyderabad. Its ports and SEZs such as Vizag, Kakinada will get more revenue for it. Again the problem will be politics. Instead of opting for developed cities such as Vizag, if they opt for some Ongole-shit as capital then they will end up creating debt on unnecessary shit.

The potential is unlimited and can get to business quickly in SA to generate revenues. All this posturing by SA folks is just a good lobbying tactics like any good businessman do.

Most importantly, T govt has full authority on the development and revenue rights of GHMC area which they can use to promote their interests. They can encourage or discourage companies/industries in GHMC area, pass laws, create incentives to promote T employment and so on. In addition, they get 10 years of free tax basis from 30 lakh so called settlers who will not dare to voice their opinion and at the same time reluctant to move out, uprooting their roots. It is like Gulf countries inviting Indian workers. In fact it is SA leaders that are dumb to accept this arrangement. I don't know what they get out of this stupid arrangement. They should pack thier bags immediately and move to the new capital, even if it means holding the secretariat in rented buildings. That way they will be on their feet much quicker and put this painful history behind.

What kind of thinking is this? SA folks are living all over India and buying selling things. Wherever they are living the rights of the states and Indian laws apply. How is this different for T-state. They don't have any ART-370 and on top of that for the emotions that are built by goons they are also getting security from Center. Private sector employment moves wherever there are opportunities and if T does not want this investment it is at their peril (especially if the above corridors in SA go full vigor they will have a lot of competition and T has to create a competitive environment to sustain investment). You pay taxes wherever you live. It may take few years but the infrastructure and entrepreneurship on the other side will just grow more rapidly. In fact if we take away this political side of the story this whole split economically could be a multiplier. This whole revenue sharing and government investment based stats are bakwaas in this era though makes sense in a little way for the first few years.

It is just unnecessary rhona-dhona as far as economics are concerned. In fact, it is T' loss if they do any hara-kiri to private investments. They will lose revenues from taxes and also they being small state cannot lobby to get massive river water projects to get government funding to run the economy. There will be no Government employment like the way it was in 70s and 80s.(TRS sold pipes and bamboos to innocent T folks on this) It will just become massive bankrupt state if they go in that Naxal path. It will be first time that they will have a hand on running the state. So far they are only whining and criticizing others for their plight.

Your Gulf country analogy is totally uncalled for as Indians live and earn and spend as they like all over India. This is basic fundamental that is missing in the thought process of both side folks.

Government employment is just one percent or two percent. Had CBN been successful in his AP-WAN program it would have become 0.5%. Even YSR tried to get rid of a lot of posts but did not succeed.

I am totally at loss about this revenue sharing discussions.

[Muppalla]

Actually if this split does not go through, the SA region should seriously put a model like Maharashtra where Nagpur is winter capital. Slowly SA should seriously get out Hyderabad dreams stuff. The centrality of private investments will get diversified and revenues also get diversified from all districts.

[Yagnasri]

Ongole lands are being purchased left right and center by Panabaka Lakshmi at the alleged instance of Ahmad Patel. Vanpic lands are also to brother used. After the drama of Rayalatelangana Karnool lost all the sympathy. The capital will be a coastal place with little infrastructure for aanything else. No one is going to build big things there and even high court will be in another place.

[ShyamSP]

What a show that KKR gave as a star batsman? I hope our batsmen in Southth Africa didn't get lessons from this batsman and end up calling retired hurt without facing a ball.

It appears that two days of Digvijay singh's marching orders sorted both CM and speaker. Apparently the congress HC told the state leaders that failing to pass the bill will make the TDP+BJP sweep the state, and their pilitical fortunes will come to an end, at least for the next 5-10 years. It seems that did the job. The whole SA congress became silent. So blame TDP+BJP if the state is formed before the elections.

Ayyo! Samaikyandhra people are only getting abuses and debt.

While one hero KKR got diarrhea, another Samaikyandhra hero turned villian. He is abusing the same Samaikyandhra people that made him Minister

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H75JyvKLaOk
TV9 Kavuri slips tongue on APNGOs

[ShyamSP]

Looking at AP reorg bill, nothing is there for Seemandhra but they get to get 60% debt and liabilities post division. Much of the debt was used for Hyderabad and interestingly they will pay for it even though they don't have right on Hyderabad revenue. Good job Congress!

===
AP reorg bill is here.
http://www.aplegislature.org/en_GB/c/do ... ef8d110178

how exactly did you reach the conclusion that "much" of the debt was spent on Hyderabad? rhetoric will not suffice on this one. you'll have to give me numbers. total AP public debt as of today is 1.8 Lakh crore. so, as per the bill, Telangana will inherit a share of .74 Lakh crores and AP will inherit 1.06 Lakh crores.

per the link below:
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... istry-note

It is better to discuss with authentic data than one from TOIlet paper. Maybe since 1990, you can get info on investments, revenues, debt, and money allocations. If it is not 60:40 (CA+RS:T+Hyd), then it is back-stabbing.

[devesh]

It is better to discuss with authentic data than one from TOIlet paper. Maybe since 1990, you can get info on investments, revenues, debt, and money allocations. If it is not 60:40 (CA+RS:T+Hyd), then it is back-stabbing.

Okay, I understand your trepidation on believing ToI. do you have other numbers which say different? the ToI numbers come directly from a GoI release, so TOI is not pulling those numbers out of its a**. unless you have numbers that say otherwise, the whole 60-40 revenues from SA:T is bogus. as of right now, SA:T revenue ration is 52:48. and population ration of SA:T is 58-42.

[devesh]

the ratio above includes Hyd as part of T. without Hyd, revenue ratio is: 31.5:48. population ratio is: 2.75cr:4.9cr

[Muppalla]

Do you guys know this?
It seems CBN challenged for a debate on who contributed what towards Telangana with KCR. Initially he accepted the challenge and when Andhra Jyothy gave the platform, KCR got coldfeet and he seems to have said that he doesn't need to debate with other state folks. CBN is other state because he is from Andhra

[LakshO]

But I also wonder...

How much is Telangana really going to benefit out of this de-merger? Without a strong leader in T, a la NaMo, I'm afraid, the situation will deteriorate in T. There are enough natural resources in T region to make it a success. But without proper leadership and vision, I'm afraid this will end up in a disaster.

Sir, you have it right!!! I don't see a single T leader (across all parties - TRS, CongI, BJP, TDP) with a plan/program/vision to make T a success. All of T protagonists, see Hyderabad as jewel/cash cow to be milked No investment will come in, existing investors will flee, T will be hotbed of naxalism. In 20-30 years from now, votaries of T will regret the demerger.

I hope I am wrong, for T's sake.

[devesh]

{When one is dividing Hyd why is one again including hyd's contribution when measuring T's contribution to state govt revenue ?
Why will just the latest fiscal year be picked to measure a region's contribution ?}

Aha! so, at last! Lilo ji, are you sticking with the above argument then? more importantly, do you realize that you've tacitly agreed that Hyd is a "kosta" property and none of the revenues from Hyd can be counted as coming from Telangana?

have I got it right? the above is what you mean, correct?

[devesh]

No, Naxalism will not revive in Telangana. that source has dried up even in Warangal. that place really used to be the epicenter of the most idealistic of them. they've simply evaporated now. there is not even a breath of fresh air being pumped into that stream.

NO, naxalism is dead. any incidents that take place from now on are simply the last remnants who are still being allowed to survive by the Center and are essentially doing Center's bidding. genuine hot-blooded naxalism in AP is dead now. even YSR's relaxation on them couldn't revive their ideological dynamism.

what will happen, if INC decides that local people are not remaining loyal to it, is that the remaining ones will carry out some spectacular "incidents" and our SA-folks will happily get to say "I told you so."

but in the near future, everything will be calm. but inevitably the old feudal-ashraf alliance will once again unmask itself. that will have its own dynamics. primarily, Naxals then will become a tool in the hands of both the feudal-Ashraf and INC Center to target sections which don't go along with the re-emerging alliance at the local level.

[devesh]

complications in the North which could potentially pull those remaining "Lal salam" followers into destructive fights up there will be welcome.
it should also create an ideological fracture in the remaining forces which can be allocated to Southern sector in Telangana and Dandakaranya.

[devesh]

in a way, INC might not even realize this yet, by encouraging the re-forging of the feudal-ashraf alliance, they are exposing their Communist attack dogs to a terrible ideological and moral conundrum. it will not be without consequences.

[Shanmukh]

Devesh-ji,
If you would answer my one question, why did the movement crystallise around KCR, when there were many other leaders available? Why did the Telangana people choose the most foul mouthed, one of the most divisive people to rally around? Why the hatred, the fire and the brimstone for the SeemaAndhra folks? Why refer to them as `settlers', and threaten to kick them out (the most rabid ones have been saying this)? Would it not have been much easier to get a separate state without KCR?

Just for the record, I have genuine sympathy for Telangana, but KCR frightens the daylights out of me.

[Lilo]

{When one is dividing Hyd why is one again including hyd's contribution when measuring T's contribution to state govt revenue ?
Why will just the latest fiscal year be picked to measure a region's contribution ?}

Aha! so, at last! Lilo ji, are you sticking with the above argument then? more importantly, do you realize that you've tacitly agreed that Hyd is a "kosta" property and none of the revenues from Hyd can be counted as coming from Telangana?

have I got it right? the above is what you mean, correct?

Devesh ji,

Don't be disingenuous.
The source of investment in assets of hyd is central(which can be apportioned between T and SA in historical pop ratio), state and private funding. If current SA contribution is just 52% to state revenue(as you hold) , that means its historical (as well as current) contribution in developing assets of Hyd(assets are the source of revenues) has been ignored,and you blithely want to depict entire state revenue currently being generated by Hyd as T revenue..
I am precisely pointing out that fact.
But then you seem to peddle the notion that the mega city(I.e a metro) called hyd rose by itself one fine day (conveniently before division) like a swayambhu pratima.

[devesh]

Devesh-ji,
If you would answer my one question, why did the movement crystallise around KCR, when there were many other leaders available? Why did the Telangana people choose the most foul mouthed, one of the most divisive people to rally around? Why the hatred, the fire and the brimstone for the SeemaAndhra folks? Why refer to them as `settlers', and threaten to kick them out (the most rabid ones have been saying this)? Would it not have been much easier to get a separate state without KCR?

Just for the record, I have genuine sympathy for Telangana, but KCR frightens the daylights out of me.

I'll put it to you this way. Telanganites are loud mouths. what I'm about to say will sound like a Paki weaving his bania-brahmin conspiracy theories, but I'll tell you one simple fact on the ground: the SA-wallahs have a softness in language (not necessarily intentions) that T-wallahs lack. if you don't believe me, feel free to ask Muppalla garu. he might express it even better and more bluntly. The T-wallah speaks more than he does. the SA-wallah does more than he speaks.

end of story.

KCR and his ilk ultimately want aa fiefdom. that's what they're fighting for. they don't have any stakes outside of Telangana. they're not like Reddys who have presence all over AP.

let me ask you a different question: why is it that many SA-vadis, including here on BRF, put their trust on TDP? because the elite class which built and maintains TDP does not have "native" presence outside of SA. it's the same with KCR. his caste doesn't have presence outside of T. and he is the loudest of all.

[devesh]

the "harshness" in language that SA-vadis complain about is very common in T. you can have 2 friends speaking and if you don't know that this is how T-people speak, you might end up believing they're averse to each other. it is partly because a certain amount of brashness has now become inculcated due to long memories over past centuries. that natural "sweetness" or "soft skills" are atrociously lacking. and consequence is that the natural language spoken tends to be very harsh. and this is something that SA-vadis make no attempt to hide their disdain for.

even in SA for that matter, it is only the KG-delta and surrounding areas which have the shuddha-telugu. up north past Vishakha, and down south past Prakasam again we see the presence of a "yaasa". but these other yaasas, for some reason, don't have the kind of contempt reserved for them that you see for T-yaasa.

in most telugu cinemas, the only guys who speak T-yaasa are villains and rowdies who are getting their a**es handed to them by the hero.

this is why I appreciated Sri Hari so much. the guy built his career up around the fact that he wore his yaasa proudly on his sleeve and eventually even did hero roles without effecting a change in it. that and his stout physical constituency.

whatever. anyway, the point is: I make no excuses for KCR's line-crossing when it comes to some of the things he's said about SA-people. I say this not for the sake of formality. but simply because I don't think that kind of enmity needs to be there between the two regions.

and as such, I never have and never will support KCR's eventual goals. the same reason why I've stayed away from the local Telangana-"JAC" of NJ here in US. KCR's daughter and sons have both attended events here in the past and there was a pretty big crowd consisting not just of KCR's people but also other prominent elite-classes form Telangana. I've been invited to participate on multiple occasions. I know an "uncle" whom I've known since first coming to US long ago, who hopes to get an MLA ticket courtesy of KCR's "generosity". he dreams of past glory. on one side, it bothers me that this guy who I've known for so long is laying down all the justifications for the coming feudal-Ashraf alliance (vacuum ideology combined with a sharp disdain for the "lower orders"), and on the other I'm glad I got to know him: I've learned a lot from people like him. and my understanding of the region's history, and also India's history, has improved and benefited with interactions with people like him.

from my understanding, they don't want to go too far in their rabble-rousing. whatever they have done so far, and whatever they will do in the future, will still be controllable by them. they don't want to give up control to the "lowers". so they cannot let the "mass involvement" get too deep. for this reason, they will ultimately not do anything to seriously confront SA over anything. you guys don't need to worry about such things. the greatest protector of SA interests on the T-side will ultimately by KCR himself. he has his role to play. he cannot jeopardize that by seriously invoking mass public interest and participation. he's not here to build a mass movement.

I hope everybody understands what I'm saying. the TRS-style govt will be a status-quo govt. it will change nothing. it will improve nothing. at the same time, it will not purposefully do anything to screw the people. their method is to maintain status-quo as much as possible while sharing the spoils of taxation among themselves and their "link" to other networks in India: the Ashrafs. for the same reason, they will not ultimately do anything to fundamentally harm the coastal business/trade flows.

KCR-TRS-and-their-govt in Telangana will be the ultimate vacuum entity. a super version of INC, existing solely to bring the old-feudals and Ashrafs together in their dealings with the East-West coastal flows; and as a "bridge" between Southern India and North of Vindhyas. it's a holding regime which will eventually once again openly bring many prominent forces of Bharat overtly on the same platform.

[johneeG]

Devesh says that lingo in T is harsh and not sweet. Muppalla says that people of T are lazy. You guys are supporting T or opposing it?

Anyway, I think both the above assertions are wrong. T guys are as hardworking as anyone. I don't think such a generalization is possible at all. And as for the lingo, except the 'andi' suffix, lingo in T is also quite sweet. KCR is definitely abusive and there is no need to blame the entire T lingo just to justify one person's abuses.

Nageshks saar,
Thelangana people have not chosen KCR as their leader. He is a self-appointed one and supported by the kongis covertly from the center. Thats the secret to his power. Even now, after all this hungama, his popularity is unclear. In 2009 also, his popularity was over-esitmated by the TDP and CBN went for an alliance with him and that proved disastrous for TDP. I feel the same is happening now also.

TRS and KCR seem exaggerated to me. Their popularity is being exaggerated in my opinion.

Anyway, his claim to fame is through badmouthing the 'other'. And hoping that the 'others' would see him as the leader of T. I don't think split of AP is really what KCR wants.

BTW, KCR's ancestors hail from coastal area. They were brought over by the Nizam. Nizam used to hire people from outside Thelangana so as to not empower the people of T. Even now, KCR never ever says anything against Nizam. Infact, his whole demand for T is based on legitimacy and legacy of Nizam's state.

[devesh]

johneeg ji,

on KCR and why he is the "leader", I agree with you. he is not the NTR or MGR of Telangana. and to a large extent, he was picked by YSR primarily due to his background. he knew that they had no stake outside of T, so as long as he could manipulate them, they would be under his control simply b/c he could extract resources from a much wider geographic base than KCR could ever hope to.

[devesh]

and when was the "lazy" comment made?! Muppalla ji, is this true?

[Lilo]

I'll put it to you this way. Telanganites are loud mouths. what I'm about to say will sound like a Paki weaving his bania-brahmin conspiracy theories, but I'll tell you one simple fact on the ground: the SA-wallahs have a softness in language (not necessarily intentions) that T-wallahs lack. if you don't believe me, feel free to ask Muppalla garu. he might express it even better and more bluntly. The T-wallah speaks more than he does. the SA-wallah does more than he speaks.

end of story.

[admin] Why is the word buffaloes being used to refer to Telengana people here ?

I'll put it to you this way. Telangana Buffaloes are loud mouths. what I'm about to say will sound like a Paki weaving his quality of bania cow vs brahmin cow conspiracy theories, but I'll tell you one simple fact on the ground: the SA-Buffaloes have a softness in braying (not necessarily intentions) that T-Buffaloes lack. if you don't believe me, feel free to ask Muppalla garu. he might express it even better and more bluntly. The T- Buffalo brays more than he charges at people. the SA-Buffalo charges at people more than he brays.

end of story?

Not quite.Additional Notes to above:
A Buffalo traversing across Telangana border along Khammam Nalgonda districts into coastal AP suddenly starts growing bigger horns (its all in the water I say) and its udder shrinks due to poor quality brackish and cloudy water. They become restless and irritable due to the humidity imposed on them by the devious coastal elites in comparison to the perfect Semiarid clime of peace and freedom they experienced in Telangana . Basically they themselves now become devious and cunning with mind full of impure thoughts.
Similarly a Telangana Buffalo crossing into Rayalaseema along Kurnool border suddenly develops an inveterate kick in its hind legs . It starts kicking back its hindlegs even to scare away flies on its behind instead of using its tail like a regular well behaved Telangana Buffalo does. I say its all in the water again , there is so much arsenic in the dutty Rayalaseema water that Buffaloes literally go batshit crazy charging and hitting their heads on current poles now.

But look at Telangana Buffaloes, they have big mouths so their bray is more louder and sonorous.
How do you think dandakaranya was reduced to its current level hain ji? Telangana Buffaloes literally chewed the shit out of Dandakaranya. This is because, a Telangana Buffalo is evolutionarily sup-e-rear with its big mouth that can can gobble up Mulch in doubly quick time .
Further their horns are small and curly - you may even think they are cute, compared to the grotesque and menancing horns of Buffaloes in rest of AP. An evolutionary leap no doubt - the cute curly horns no longer get struck in the overhead forest thickets . Point a Telangana Buffalo a patch of green in the middle of an forest , it can make its way doubly quick compared to SA Buffalo .

Most importantly the water in telangana is pristine as it flows out through the natural filter of (remaining) Dandakaranya so Telangana Buffaloes are capable of high thoughts and determined action unlike their batshit crazy counterparts in SA . So when you come across a Telangana Buffalo which is looking your way from a distance chewing cud , don't think that its just chewing cud as a buffalo generally does, its in fact sizing you up whether to ignore you like an insect or acknowledge you with its loud bray.

[Shanmukh]

let me ask you a different question: why is it that many SA-vadis, including here on BRF, put their trust on TDP? because the elite class which built and maintains TDP does not have "native" presence outside of SA. it's the same with KCR. his caste doesn't have presence outside of T. and he is the loudest of all.

I don't contest your remarks about TDP at all. But I am afraid that the Telangana folks have chosen the worst person to rally around. As I see it, he is the exact counterpart of Jagan - the one determined to split the state, and the other determined to keep it united at all costs. Both of them are extraordinarily reckless people, who are lighting fires without caring to bother who will get consumed in the conflagration. Both of them are exceptionally selfish men, who are set on achieving their political objectives, without bothering about the consequences of their actions. Both of them, if they happen to become chief ministers, will prove disasters for their respective states.

[Shanmukh]

Nageshks saar,
Thelangana people have not chosen KCR as their leader. He is a self-appointed one and supported by the kongis covertly from the center. Thats the secret to his power. Even now, after all this hungama, his popularity is unclear. In 2009 also, his popularity was over-esitmated by the TDP and CBN went for an alliance with him and that proved disastrous for TDP. I feel the same is happening now also.

TRS and KCR seem exaggerated to me. Their popularity is being exaggerated in my opinion.

Anyway, his claim to fame is through badmouthing the 'other'. And hoping that the 'others' would see him as the leader of T. I don't think split of AP is really what KCR wants.

BTW, KCR's ancestors hail from coastal area. They were brought over by the Nizam. Nizam used to hire people from outside Thelangana so as to not empower the people of T. Even now, KCR never ever says anything against Nizam. Infact, his whole demand for T is based on legitimacy and legacy of Nizam's state.

Thanks for the tidbit of info, JohneeG-ji. As for KCR, the man has his popularity - that is not contestable. One can argue whether he has 30% popularity or 40%, but I suspect that a plurality of the Telangana folks support him. I also suspect it is precisely because he is so extreme that he is popular. I wonder how much of this comes from insecurity. After all, if he burns his bridges with all SA folks, he cannot be accused of betraying Telangana, can he?

On the other hand, we have the second generation Mafia lord on the other side, who is playing up emotions in a bid to keep himself relevant. And in all this, the only losers are the people of Andhra - they will elect a leader based on emotion and they will end up cursing themselves in 5 years. Another lost decade, I suppose, after the lost previous decade under his beloved Mafia daddy.

[shyamoo]

...
Most importantly the water in telangana is pristine as it flows out through the natural filter of (remaining) Dandakaranya so Telangana Buffaloes are capable of high thoughts and determined action unlike their batshit crazy counterparts in SA . So when you come across a Telangana Buffalo which is looking your way from a distance chewing cud , don't think that its just chewing cud as a buffalo generally does, its in fact sizing you up whether to ignore you like an insect or acknowledge you with its loud bray.

Lilo saar, I have no idea as to what you are trying to say.

Please do say it in simple language and you may feel free to be as blunt as possible. Too many assumption leads to incorrect analysis. I fear people do not exactly express what they feel/think. If there are genuine drawbacks on either side, they need to be discussed. How else will people improve?

[shyamoo]

Thanks for the tidbit of info, JohneeG-ji. As for KCR, the man has his popularity - that is not contestable. One can argue whether he has 30% popularity or 40%, but I suspect that a plurality of the Telangana folks support him. I also suspect it is precisely because he is so extreme that he is popular. I wonder how much of this comes from insecurity. After all, if he burns his bridges with all SA folks, he cannot be accused of betraying Telangana, can he?

On the other hand, we have the second generation Mafia lord on the other side, who is playing up emotions in a bid to keep himself relevant. And in all this, the only losers are the people of Andhra - they will elect a leader based on emotion and they will end up cursing themselves in 5 years. Another lost decade, I suppose, after the lost previous decade under his beloved Mafia daddy.

Most people that I know, don't particularly like KCR. Lack of a credible alternative leaves the field open to him.

But on the other hand, if there were a credible leader in the region, this separate T wouldn't have gained traction. Would it?

[Lilo]

Lilo saar, I have no idea as to what you are trying to say.

Please do say it in simple language and you may feel free to be as blunt as possible. Too many assumption leads to incorrect analysis. I fear people do not exactly express what they feel/think. If there are genuine drawbacks on either side, they need to be discussed. How else will people improve?

Vnmshyam ji,
What do you think ?
I am doing psych anal-e-sis of Buffaloes of AP as seen in three regions of AP. Actually i don't know jack shit about them. But when I see those sitting on their behinds that too in massa land keep passing copious generalizations (again from their behinds) on people or places they have never been to or seen with their own eyes or talked to in person with people residing there, then I suddenly feel confident that I too can do the same when it comes to behavior of say ...buffaloes in various regions of AP.

[ramana]

Lilo, No need for that.

Thanks,

ramana

[devesh]

Thanks for the tidbit of info, JohneeG-ji. As for KCR, the man has his popularity - that is not contestable. One can argue whether he has 30% popularity or 40%, but I suspect that a plurality of the Telangana folks support him. I also suspect it is precisely because he is so extreme that he is popular. I wonder how much of this comes from insecurity. After all, if he burns his bridges with all SA folks, he cannot be accused of betraying Telangana, can he?

On the other hand, we have the second generation Mafia lord on the other side, who is playing up emotions in a bid to keep himself relevant. And in all this, the only losers are the people of Andhra - they will elect a leader based on emotion and they will end up cursing themselves in 5 years. Another lost decade, I suppose, after the lost previous decade under his beloved Mafia daddy.

Most people that I know, don't particularly like KCR. Lack of a credible alternative leaves the field open to him.

But on the other hand, if there were a credible leader in the region, this separate T wouldn't have gained traction. Would it?

there were quite a few credible leaders. most got accidented. my personal opinion is that had the likes of Madhava Reddy not been killed off (right under TDP's nose; quite possibly with the indirect assistance of some within the TDP itself), there would have been nothing of this mess. it is a mess. that's for sure.