Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

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shiv
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by shiv »

svenkat wrote:Johanns posts make a lot of sense.Pakjab is stable.They have rivers,plains,canal systems,dams,food surplus,sunni faith,stable social system inherited from Hindu past.They have colonies as well-sindh,baltistan,balochisthan where pakjabi soldiers can exercise their blood lust.
Well said venkat. This, in two lines, is how the west sees Pakistan and this serves as the basis for recognition of Pakistan as a fellow nation state in the comity of nations.

But what's in it for us, in India, to see Pakistan through this fakeological filter?
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by svenkat »

Shivji,
Filters might change the way the people see things,but that does not change 'objective reality'.The 'objective reality' is pakjabi state is stong internally(sunni pakjabi) and has support of US/Britain/Hans.Our description cannot change reality,can it?

We have little in common with balochis and pakthuns,unless we believe in the 'kool-aid' of Congress sikularism.The sindhis are basically non-entities.Its just a colony of Pakjab.Theres little chance for an insurgency to succeed there.Ultimately,its the US/British/Han supported Pakjabi state that matters.

In a way,pakjabis as a renegade Indian province are beating the hell out of the trans Indus people and bringing them under "Indian" control while in the good cop-bad cop routine,we are comforting the trans indus people.
Last edited by svenkat on 16 Apr 2014 09:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Agnimitra »

svenkat, shiv ji,

Yes the incoherent quasi-state of Bakistan sticks together due to being godfathered by powerful external actors.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by shiv »

svenkat wrote:Shivji,
Filters might change the way the people see things,but that does not change 'objective reality'.The 'objective reality' is pakjabi state is stong internally(sunni pakjabi) and has support of US/Britain/Hans.Our description cannot change reality,can it?
You stress on Pakjabi state. That state has the support of external entities but does not control Baluchistan or NWFP. As long as one chooses to believe that they do control those areas in full, "objective reality" for the person who believes that is of a coherent functioning state.

Baluchistan and NWP are not Pakjab. If Pakjab is internally strong it does not say anything about Baluchistan or NWFP. There is a tendency to declare the whole of Pakistan as Pakjab. If Pakistan is Pakjab, what are Baluchistan and NWFP? How is the situation in Baluchistan and NWFP an indicator of Pakjab's "internal strength". The situation in Baluchistan/NWFP indicates that Pakistan is fragmented and unstable even if Pakjab is stable. Only using word-play like by saying Pakjab=Pakistan can anyone claim that Pakistan is stable. That is what I have been trying to point out
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by shiv »

Agnimitra wrote:svenkat, shiv ji,

Yes the incoherent quasi-state of Bakistan sticks together due to being godfathered by powerful external actors.
The question that I am asking Indians is as follows

"if you accept that Pakistan is an incoherent collection of warring states that are imagined to be united by the name Pakistan and supported by western powers, what is in it for us as Indians to abide by that definition and description?"
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Agnimitra »

shiv wrote:
Agnimitra wrote:The question that I am asking Indians is as follows

"if you accept that Pakistan is an incoherent collection of warring states that are imagined to be united by the name Pakistan and supported by western powers, what is in it for us as Indians to abide by that definition and description?"
Framing it like this has many policy ramifications. Policy paralysis or confusion stems from inability to clearly define and understand the enemy. Once the nature of the enemy is clearly defined and understood, it clears many obstacles.

1. Express overt "sympathy" when RAPEs say "Bakistan itself is a victim of terrorism", etc. Then India, Iran, Oman, Afghanistan, etc. must necessarily "help out" by dealing directly with TTP, Baluchis, MIM, and various other "non-state actors", about their concerns, etc.

2. Neighboring countries use this iteration of recognizing Bakistan's "reality" to justify acquiring and developing our own drone technology, which will become increasingly important in the changing war environment in the near future. As it is, Bakistan's borders are defined by the fences and walls its neighbours, esp. India and Iran, have built.

3. Anyone can dismantle any Bakistani diplomacy at an international level about "core issue" J&K by simply pointing out that it is hardly a sovereign state to begin with.

4. We can openly question the role Bakistan's Fourfathers play in holding together an artificial entity.

Etc.

All of this may be done with "sympathy" for the "besieged" Bakjabi RAPES, who, as has been pointed out, have an attachment-envy relationship with DIE anyway. In this way, it is not only about slicing Bakjab from the rest, but also different strata from other up-and-coming lower-middle class momineen.

Eventually internal non-state actors from within India may also begin targeting specific pieces of Bakistan. E.g., a re-invented and re-directed Naxal/Maoist movement may turn its attention to Bakistan as things in India improve for the underprivileged.
Last edited by Agnimitra on 16 Apr 2014 10:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Johann »

shiv wrote:I will take up three points that Johann made that are typical of the "current comfortable" western view of how all is well in Pakistan and no one needs to worry:

...I have been warning people on BRF precisely to recognise how a series of little bluffs from Pakistan, supported by western media lead to the impression that almost all is well exactly as Johann is at pains to point out [/list]
I'm sorry Shiv, but I think we're talking past each other.

I'm the last person to suggest that "all is well" in Pakistan, but its interesting you've chosen to interpret it that way. It seems you've actually lost the patience to consider what I'm actually saying and lump it in with what you consider the standard narrative.

We have far more differences on the nature and the uniqueness of Pakistan's problems than on their seriousness.

- Of course there's nothing 'good' about patronage - that is as obvious as saying there's nothing good about schizophrenia - but the discussion was on whether there are things that actually hold Pakistan together. This is one of the most important things because its very successful at co-opting the political elements at every level across the entire country (even in large parts of Balochistan) and tying all of their interests together. But its not a simple pathology - as much as it ties the country together, it also holds it back.

- To suggest that the biggest problems of coherence in Pakistan are not separatism and nationalism but over definition and inclusion in the idea of Pakistan is again hardly good news. Mullahs vs. Generals, rich vs. poor and Pious Sunni vs. everyone else aren't conflicts that can be dismissed. These are violently clashing visions that the Pakistani state for the longest time attempted to gloss over. They are producing titanic convulsions, the worst of which we probably have not seen. The Baloch are a divided minority to the Pakhtuns even in their own province, and the Pakhtuns themselves seem keener on taking over and running Pakistan (which they're sort of doing whether its Karachi or Quetta, the TTP or PTI) than on becoming marginal parts of a smaller, poorer country in the form of Afghanistan.

- On the question of development. To point out that Pakistan is on the upper reaches of the bottom third of humanity or that is hardly congratulatory. All I have pointed out is that most countries in that portion of the human development index have severe problems with governance, coherence and problems of violence. The country that most reminds me of Pakistan is actually Nigeria in terms of corruption, ethnic diversity a powerful military rule and extremism. Its a country that people also routinely expect to fall apart, but somehow doesn't, but whose pathologies (including polio) affect its neighbours. What makes Pakistan particularly notable is combining that with nuclear weapons.

You've brought up polio - its actually a useful example of a lot of the different things I've already said. The moment India announced that it eradicated polio, it became a national priority in Pakistan to keep up. The state, working with the NGO world that has mushroomed in the last 20 years has had enough capacity to launch a major drive across Pakistan, except for the areas in NWFP and FATA where the TTP is strong. In these areas the polio vaccination drive has literally become militarised, and drops are being handed out to infants at security checkpoints - these are the areas that all polio cases for the first quarter of this year have been reported from. Its an example of what I said that the differences between the TTP and the Army are hardly minor - they could make all the difference in whether Pakistan is actually able to eradicate polio, or if it will have to do continuous battle with this reservoir area.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by abhijitm »

Yes pakjab is stable; except the gigantic 786 size shoe that TTP has put in their a$$.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by partha »

You all remember one Mr Tahir Ul Qadri from Canada who suddenly appeared holding rallies nashun wide before elections and then disappeared? Well, he is coming back. Kya comedy hain :lol: Looks like GHQ has summoned him again.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Lilo »

partha wrote:You all remember one Mr Tahir Ul Qadri from Canada who suddenly appeared holding rallies nashun wide before elections and then disappeared? Well, he is coming back. Kya comedy hain :lol: Looks like GHQ has summoned him again.
Hope TTP will fix his Canadian vijja to Jannat this time.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by SSridhar »

If one looks dispassionately at Pakistan, one would find that but for the UK first and then the US, there would have been no Pakistan at all in the first place or no sustenance after its unfortunate creation.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by anupmisra »

Only in the land of the pure. MEPCO staff taken hostage by power thieves at Munro
Multan Electric Company (MEPC) personnel who had been taken hostage by area residents for disconnecting illegal connections were released after four hours
area-residents enraged over the removal of ‘kundas’ (illegal connections) by MEPCO staff, had taken them hostage
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Johann »

abhijitm wrote:Yes pakjab is stable; except the gigantic 786 size shoe that TTP has put in their a$$.
The threat the TTP poses to Pakistan or Pakjab today is nothing compared to what it might become.

The Sharif brothers have for years bought peace in northern and central Punjab by leaving the 'Punjabi Taliban' a free hand to recruit and organise in the south. After all the SSP was born in Jhang.

Many of those cadre have gained experience fighting with the TTP, and the Afghan Taliban.

9/11 brought the conflict between the different answers to 'Pakistan ka matlab kya hai' to FATA, and the Lal Masjid siege expanded it to NWFP, Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

I can't predict what would bring it to southern Punjab, but its far more likely than any Pashtun or Sindhi secessionist movement.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by KLNMurthy »

shiv wrote:I will take up three points that Johann made that are typical of the "current comfortable" western view of how all is well in Pakistan and no one needs to worry:

1. That Pakistan's human development index is the same as that of Bangladesh.
  • If you dig deeper into how statistics are collected in Pakistan, you find that no full census has been conducted since the late 1990s and even today no go areas like parts of Baluchistan and FATA are simply not included in human development statistics When you cant get accurate population statistics you cannot get accurate human development statistics, You can only predict that if population increases faster than economic growth and if there is great income disparity HDI will get worse, That is what I said. Pakistan statistics are limited to what people can get out of Punjab and Sindh. Furthermore HDI is not a one time photograph. It is a moving picture. Bangladesh was worse than Pakistan. It is equal now. That says that Pakistan has deteriorated or failed to improve as even Bangladesh has done
2. Pakistan works on a system of"patronage".
  • Actually patronage exists all over. Patronage per se does not mean things are good - it means things are bad. I once got a paper published in a so called 'Top" journal from the UK simply because of patronage (received by a Brit co author who then got his name first pn the paper). The AAP in India and Janaagraha are both reactions to the feudal patronage system that allows family dynasties to rule. Patronage bypasses democratic systems, In fact Pakistan is loved by the US and the west simply because patronage and paying off a general or chief of staff and his family allows them to get things done.
3. the sub nationalities of Pakistan are not an issue.
  • If you exclude sub nationalities from the reckoning and speak only of Punjab and Sindh then sub nationalities are not an issue. if you exclude Baluchistan, huge parts of NWFP then oh yes Pakistan is fine. A bit of terrorism, a bit of patronage, a bit of ethnic cleansing, a bit of illiteracy, a little bit of polio, a bit of sharia, some terrorist training camps, a bit of borrowing, a bit of begging, a bit of lying and obfuscation and hey yes you have a functioning nation state called Pakistan.

    I have been warning people on BRF precisely to recognise how a series of little bluffs from Pakistan, supported by western media lead to the impression that almost all is well exactly as Johann is at pains to point out
My takeaway from this discussion has been that Johann is not exactly saying "all is well" with Pakistan, but rather that there is some sort of non-state internal equilibrium in place. However Johann has consistently ignored the Indian POV, namely that (1) whatever the inner situation in Pakistan, all elements therein are united in implacable enmity towards India and (2) as far as India is concerned, there is no entity or set of entities in Pakistan with which to talk things out and negotiate something resembling a roadmap to put an end to this one-sided enmity.

At a different level, observe how Johann--undoubtedly a friendly person who is intelligent and expresses himself well, even elegantly--has effectively caused the discussion to get sidetracked. From articulating concerns about Indian public entities' incapability to see Pakistan for what it is, shiv the uncompromising defender of India has gone into debating the veracity of Pakistan's development statistics, driven there precisely by Johann's insistent tone-deafness to India's perspective, on BRF! I don't know shiv's internal workings, but maybe what we have is a difficulty in resisting the seduction of a debate (even if it is a misdirection of energy) especially when it is offered by someone with an aura of intelligence coupled with goodwill. Mind, I am not CT-ing or imputing any evil motives to Johann (aside from noting his insistent tone-deafness towards Indian interests, which is in effect, especially insidious precisely because he is too knowledgeable to be ignored),

If these are the discussion dynamics on BRF itself, doesn't that tell us something about the anatomy-etiology-physiology (is that the correct metaphor, shiv?) of the mysterious illness that seems to afflict Indian thinking and decisionmaking when it comes to Pakistan?

If I am right, shouldn't we be thinking in terms of making a start for the cure by setting aside at least a part of our gentle, sajjan-seducible selves, and proceed to let the iron int our soul just a bit, and keep our focus on Indian concerns while firmly turning aside Johann-like efforts to redefine the terms of the debate?

In the present instance, why not just meet Johann's disquisitions with a tl; dr and instead ask him to explain how it would affect the BRF project?
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Johann »

KLNMurthy wrote:My takeaway from this discussion has been that Johann is not exactly saying "all is well" with Pakistan, but rather that there is some sort of non-state internal equilibrium in place. However Johann has consistently ignored the Indian POV, namely that (1) whatever the inner situation in Pakistan, all elements therein are united in implacable enmity towards India and (2) as far as India is concerned, there is no entity or set of entities in Pakistan with which to talk things out and negotiate something resembling a roadmap to put an end to this one-sided enmity.
KLNM a few pages back I actually posted my own thoughts on this - that the current status quo power structure in Pakistan is not remotely threatened by India in the era of nuclear stalemate, it is threatened by the TTP, and that the threat is only likely to grow. From what I've seen and head of the generation that is now in its 20s and 30s another decade or two of this is likely to bring about the collapse of the Anti India-centric style of Pakistani nationalism among that country's ruling classes. And I include the PA in that - if things keep this way, 1971 will be a distant memory compared to the thousands of military casualties inflicted by jihadis.

There's already the start formal efforts to rework Pakistani nationalism in that class - take a look at the work by Aitzaz Ahsan, the PPP lawyer who led the anti-Musharraf campaign and the party's brains trust. 'The Indus Saga' is a non-Mughal/Delhi, non-Afghan/Persian centric historical narrative that he's promoting as the basis for a recalibrated, geographically located national identity. This is clearly an elite project, but most nationalist projects start that way.

This is not to say that Pakistan will become a normal country - its going to be a huge trial to its own people and those around it, as well good bits of the world at large, but its ruling class will have to adapt to new circumstances to survive, and that is the one trait they have consistently shown.
In the present instance, why not just meet Johann's disquisitions with a tl; dr and instead ask him to explain how it would affect the BRF project?
I have no issues with Shiv's project in general. What caught my eye was again, this idea that to be compelling it had to capture the way things are, and the way they're going.

In one of my posts on the previous post I actually prefaced my post specifically saying my interest was an accurate model of Pakistan's strengths, weaknesses and dynamics that can provide some predictive power of where its going. That's also one of the long standing interests of the thread.

There's no reason that the larger discussion about messaging can not go on as well.

Also I'd like to point out that there is no single anything POV - whether its India or BRF or Pakistan or America or whatever. There will be various clumps of opinion regardless of what I say. If anything it actually hardens opinions because of reflexive assumptions about who I am and why I'm saying something, with very little attention to what I'm actually saying. The point is that the exchange of both facts, and differing interpretations of facts is stimulating and educational. I get a kick out of it, until I get busy with real life and wander off for a while.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by SSridhar »

TTP decides not o extend ceasefire - DAWN
The outlawed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) announced on Wednesday its decision to not extending the ceasefire and said that the government had failed to respond positively to the militant organisation's ceasefire of more than 40 days.

TTP spokesman, Shahidullah Shaihid, said that the Taliban shura had decided not to extend the ceasefire becuase more than 50 of their activists were killed in custody during the past 40 days and added that the justifiable demands of the militant organisation were not met.

Shahid however said that the Taliban would be willing to hold meaningful dialogue if the government was ready for serious talks.

Moreover, the TTP Mohmand Agency chief, Umer Khalid Khurasani, also issued a statement in which he had said that government was not serious about peace and the only way to implement true Shariah was jihad. {AoA}
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by abhijitm »

Johann wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Yes pakjab is stable; except the gigantic 786 size shoe that TTP has put in their a$$.
The threat the TTP poses to Pakistan or Pakjab today is nothing compared to what it might become.
Actually the threat is already huge and growing. Pakistani elites understand language of money and TTP is hurting them where it hurts most. They have already captured pakjabi's cash cow Karachi. Foreign investment in pakistan (read pakjabi businesses) is reduced to zilch due to the instability created and sustained by the TTP. Money or bribe the west is giving them is just enough to survive. This is not a promising situation and its not improving either.

All said, I don't think TTP has any plan to takeover pakjab...yet. TTP is in consolidation phase right now. They are not in a position to spread thin and lose control over the captured territory. Afterall TTP is not kejri. (only a joke...not ==).
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by KLNMurthy »

Johann wrote: ...
KLNM a few pages back I actually posted my own thoughts on this - that the current status quo is not remotely threatened by India in the era of nuclear stalemate, it is threatened by the TTP, and that the threat is only likely to grow.
Are you familiar with the Mahabharata? There is an expression deriving from it: We may be five against a hundred, but against outsiders we are a hundred and five. What this means for India is that TTP may threaten the current status quo but both everyone--TTP and stakeholders of current status quo are virulent haters of Hindus and enemies of India.
Another decade or two of this is likely to the dismantle Anti India-centric kind of Pakistani nationalism among that country's ruling classes.
I don't see how it follows that this is good for India's interests. For India, it doesn't matter whether whisky-swilling koi-hai TFTA ashraf pakis are hating on India or it is their unwashed ajlaf TTP frenemies.
There's already formal efforts in that direction - take a look at Aitzaz Ahsan's (the PPP lawyer who led the anti-Musharraf campaign) 'The Indus Saga' for a non-Mughal/Delhi, non-Afghan/Persian centric historical narrative as the basis for a recalibrated national identity. This is clearly an elite project, but most nationalist projects start that way.
With respect Johann, (a) stuff like this Indus Project is some sort of self-aggrandizing quixotic BS by well-meaning ashraf snobs (unkind of me perhaps to refer to a "liberal" activist like Aitzaz Ahsan in this way, but in my experience, you just have to scratch a well-spoken paki a little bit to expose the ashraf snob inside) to invent a heritage to reconcile and make whole their own self-image. Woe be unto India if it is fool enough to set any store by "Indus Saga"-ish things for bringing Pakis to their senses and into the human fold.

Even you are not convinced, Johann: Look at the weasel words: "likely to dismantle?" "in a decade or so?"

And you are contradicting yourself: On the one hand, TTP is an existential threat to the Paki elite, but on the other hand, India is supposed to pin its hopes on some BS that a fringe of that same mortally threatened elite has dreamed up, which is "likely" to fructify in "a decade or so?"

and (b) By the way, even if this Indus nonsense wins out in some fantasy universe and there is somehow some sort of reconciliation with India, the overwhelming odds are that it will still be structured as a hierarchy with ashraf pakis (now reinvented as "children of Mother Indus") on top, leeching on India's productivity and hard work, while constantly bloviating to us about what is wrong with us. How's that for extrapolating from present trends, eh?

Face it, for India, Pakistan is intractable; the best approximation that I can think of, for an answer to Pakistan is to invent some sort of super-max prison for that country and confine it there for all eternity.

I have no issues with Shiv's project in general. What caught my eye was again, this idea that to be compelling it had to capture the way things are, and the way they're going.
What we select for capturing, out of the infinite amount of information about the present state and future trends, is driven by our interests. On BRF India's interests come first and foremost.
In one of my posts on the previous post I actually prefaced my post specifically saying my interest was an accurate model of Pakistan's strengths, weaknesses and dynamics that can provide some predictive power of where its going. That's also one of the long standing interests of the thread.
My issue is not that your posts are irrelevant to the thread, or that you should not post your stuff (though I'll submit with respect that nearly all of what you post on this thread is already well-known to its readers). It is that we should be ruthless in constantly pruning the scope of the debate to keep our focus on India's primary interest wrt Pakistan (as articulated aeons ago by shiv and with which I agree) which is to destroy it as it is presently constituted and render it ineffective.
There's no reason that the larger discussion about messaging can not go on as well.

Also I'd like to point out that there is no single anything POV - whether its India or BRF or Pakistan or America or whatever. There will be various clumps of opinion regardless of what I say - if anything the problem is that people are often much more interested in who I am and what that means than in what I'm actually saying - which means I often waste a lot of time having to try to argue with their slightly random projections and straw men. The point is that the exchange of both facts, and differing interpretations of facts is stimulating and educational.
Speaking for myself, I try generally to keep away from personalities when not relevant and I hope I am not engaging in it here.

But I disagree with you in what you seem to be saying above--obviously there are multiple POVs, but are you claiming that there is no such thing as an Indian POV or a BRF POV? And an American POV? Really? That seems rather, well, fantastic. And I can't imagine an Indian-type BRFite taking such a view.

I actually think "educational" and "stimulating" discussions are not always necessarily unequivocally good things. I have spent literally decades educating myself about Pakistan only to realize that most of that effort came from a desire on my part to convince myself that Pakistan is "just like" India or for that matter any normal civilized nation or culture, and we could have a friendly relationship if not be actual friends with it. Which is of course completely false.

What I am advocating here is that Indians don't waste further time and energy in indulging our personal need to not see ourselves as haters, and focus our minds instead on the task of working out and debating ways to destroy Pakistan. Which is why I demanded that whatever information or knowledge provided be tied to what I might term the shivving of Pakistan. True you obliged, and I appreciate that, but as I said above, the effort to make the connection shows that the connection is rather weak and tentative, more of a projection of wishful thinking than anything real.

So, let me put it to you again: given the information you have provided, and given the mission of BRF, what should India be doing at this time to make progress on destroying Pakistan?
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 16 Apr 2014 20:44, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by abhijitm »

SSridhar wrote:TTP decides not o extend ceasefire - DAWN
Shahid however said that the Taliban would be willing to hold meaningful dialogue if the government was ready for serious talks.
Seems at this moment TTP needs the dialogue more than pakis.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Paul »

They have not been able to hit back at a single PAF base in retaliation for the airstrikes in Waziristan.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by KLNMurthy »

Paul wrote:They have not been able to hit back at a single PAF base in retaliation for the airstrikes in Waziristan.
[sarcasm on] Yay, the good guys are winning, let's light those wagah candles![/sarcasm off]
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by ramana »

Jhujar wrote:http://tribune.com.pk/story/695963/rest ... y-balance/

Restoring the civil-military balance
The Kargil episode and the Memogate affair are some of the classic examples that caused national embarrassment. Moreover, our foreign, defence and security policies continue to suffer as a consequence of this imbalance. [b]Recently, a war of words between the civil and military leadership has rung alarm bells as friction between institutions could undermine our capacity in dealing with the TTP, or for that matter, with any militant organisation, whether based in Punjab, Sindh or Balochistan.[/b] Radical groups are known to cleverly exploit differences among institutions to their advantage.
Foreign powers, too, become sceptical when they see the gulf between the civil and military. India, Afghanistan and the US were never sure whether the army was supportive of the policies that the government professed.There are several other serious ongoing irritants. The saga of missing persons goes on while the prime minister is supposedly engaged in a reconciliation process with the Baloch nationalists. It is rumoured that TTP prisoners were released without taking the military into confidence. This may well not be true, but the apologetic and fraternal overtures extended to the TTP by the interior minister did deeply hurt the feelings of the rank and file of army, reflecting the disconnect. In Punjab, well-known radicals like Maulana Ludhyanvi, Hafiz Saeed and Maulana Azhar becoming a part of mainstream politics and their increasing influence are a source of concern. The level of government tolerance has reached a stage where individuals and groups that were blatantly involved in acts of terrorism and sectarian killings are being given respectability. :(( :(( :(( Is there a realisation in the ruling elite how much the policy of appeasement affects national power and lowers prestige in the eyes of its own people and abroad? The question is whether this is happening with the concurrence of the civil and military leadership or that these policies have no ownership. Once the state surrenders the monopoly of violence and allows it to be outsourced, it loses its ability to protect its citizens. It is ironic that a state that has been using asymmetric forces to multiply its power is now facing a situation where the same forces are diminishing it. :(( More importantly, how will the central policy of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to maintain good relations with our neighbours harmonise with its current approach of appeasement with most of these militant groups? Has the civil and military leadership seriously deliberated over these issues and will the new national policy on internal security be implemented to confront and combat these forces?The fissures in institutional relationships have compromised our ability to deal with neighbouring countries effectively. While dealing with India, granting it the Most-Favoured Nation status has been an on and off affair, giving the impression as if the army brass is not fully supportive of the peace process. :(( Afghan President Hamid Karzai has also been blaming our army and intelligence services for being involved in destabilising his country. Surely, the Pakistani state is not interested in destabilising Afghanistan as it directly hurts its own interest, yet the perception is different.

Jhujar, Thanks for posting an important article that peers behind the green burkha of TSP. Essentially the TTP has managed to become significant force that the civilians are playing them agaisnt the kabila guards. Eg. Badmash has released TTP prisoners without consulting the TSPA, neogtiated with Balochis and that is causing takleef.

Next mullahs are being mainstreamed etc.

Last they are complaining that TSPA is beign blamed wrongfully for not providing MFN status to India.

What we are seeing is inshore balancing of the kabila gurads by the TTP and assorted pakiban.

I dont know if the sarakari mullahs have crossed over to the TTP or not.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by abhijitm »

Paul wrote:They have not been able to hit back at a single PAF base in retaliation for the airstrikes in Waziristan.
They won't for those coward paf airstrikes on civilians. They are consolidating now. Abdullah Abdullah will win afghan election. He will sign the pact with Americans which Karzai did not. Means around 10k american soldiers will remain back. I don't understand was there a plan-b for Mullah Omar for this situation or he was betting on complete withdrawal. Whatever may be the case it seems Tabilan has gone quite quiet recently. I don't see this as a sign of weakness exactly but it seems they all are consolidating, may be planning next move.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by KLNMurthy »

ramana wrote:
...

Jhujar, Thanks for posting an important article that peers behind the green burkha of TSP. Essentially the TTP has managed to become significant force that the civilians are playing them agaisnt the kabila guards. Eg. Badmash has released TTP prisoners without consulting the TSPA, neogtiated with Balochis and that is causing takleef.

Next mullahs are being mainstreamed etc.

Last they are complaining that TSPA is beign blamed wrongfully for not providing MFN status to India.

What we are seeing is inshore balancing of the kabila gurads by the TTP and assorted pakiban.

I dont know if the sarakari mullahs have crossed over to the TTP or not.
Do these developments reflect more an upgrade of TTP or the emergence of a more overt alliance between Pakjabi civilian elite under Badmash and their fellow Pakjabi TTP?

If it is a consolidation of Pakjab that is going on, then India should be careful about its tentacles extending into Indian Punjab under the guise of shared Punjabiat.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by abhijitm »

Ah ha. Found this :)
Mullah Omar wants TTP to end infighting, join spring offensive
The latest call by the ameer of the Afghan Taliban Mullah Mohammad Omar to the Pakistani Taliban to end their infighting in South Waziristan is actually aimed at securing their support against foreign troops in Afghanistan to launch the annual spring offensive with full force which is about to begin with the end of the winter season.
According to well-informed diplomatic circles in Islamabad, the ameer of the Afghan Taliban’s call to the Pakistani Taliban for a truce between the two key warring factions has confirmed earlier reports that Mullah Omar had used his influence to persuade the TTP ameer Mullah Fazlullah for initiating peace talks with the Pakistan government primarily to prevent a Pakistani military action in Waziristan before the withdrawal of the US-led Allied Forces from Afghanistan. The ameer of the Afghan Taliban was of the view that instead of wasting their energies in battling with Pakistan Army, the Taliban on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border should prepare themselves for a decisive battle in Afghanistan after the American withdrawal for the revival of the Taliban Emirates of Afghanistan.
The TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan had made public the formation of the Shura through a press release, saying all the militant groups have reposed their confidence in Mullah Omar’s leadership and accepted him as the consensus leader of Afghanistan. He had added that the unity among the militants came after a call by Mullah Omar, telling the Pakistani Taliban to stop fighting at home to join the battle to liberate Afghanistan.

Ehsanullah had said the TTP would send its fighters to Afghanistan after March for waging jehad against the US-led “infidel” forces.
The current level of relationship between the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan Taliban was well-described by TTP spokesman Shahidullah Shahid on October 6, 2013 in these words: “The Afghan Taliban not only financially support the Pakistani Taliban in their war with Islamabad but they also provide them sanctuary in Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban are our jehadi brothers. In the beginning, we were helping them. But now they are strong enough to support us financially”
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Hitesh »

KLNMurthy,

Johann is under no obligation to follow the thought that Pakistan must be destroyed. He does not share that belief nor should he be compelled. But what he brings to the table is an outsider's perspective, a useful counterweight and effective guard to the dangers of group thinking where the thinking is so ingrained in one line that the group fails to consider other points or paths to take. I find that as a very valuable contribution to BRF.

Do not take it personally against Johann or his posts. I do not find his posts insidious. Why? Because the information and facts he gives in such a way that it allows us to form our own opinion and check out other criteria and points. I do not find that Johann is peddling some kind of insidious agenda on BRF. He is being open about it.

I do believe that for the sake of India, Pakistan must be destroyed or neutered. Johann is not trying to throw roadblocks into that thinking but introducing points and facts that we have not considered before or a new angle or light we can look at. For instance, Johann has revealed several fault lines in Pakistan that India could exploit and minimize the dangers to India at little cost provided that there is political will at the heart of GoI.

Furthermore, BRF is a forum where we can exchange ideas and opinions freely without worrying from ad hominem attacks or the likes of it. BRF may not have influence on the thinking of GoI as people would like to think. Nonetheless, we should be constantly exposed to new ideas and thoughts.

Back to regular programming.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by anupmisra »

Panic!! PM calls urgent meeting on national security
Nawaz Sharif has called an urgent meeting of the cabinet committee on national security on Thursday at PM House
Chairman joint chiefs of staff committee, three services chiefs, DG IB, DG ISI are also expected to attend the meeting
Latest developments with regard to government, Taliban peace talks
So, what's the take from this panic attack after TTP backed out?

1. The PM has called this meeting (not the PA or other defence related agencies).
2. Cabinet committee runs the meeting. PA+Agencies are expected but not obligated to attend.
3. Meeting at the PM house (not GHQ in pindi or other neutral places).

Something's cooking and it could be Nawaz's goose. Popcorn time.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by ramana »

KLNM, There you have your answer.

TTP is gaining and the Kabila guards see them as a threat for it allows the inmates an alternate power center to appeal to.
Hence they activated Mullah Omar to appeal to TTP to concentrate on strategic depth.

It also means Taliban are making plans for US presence in Afghania!

Now TTP has to choose Af ya Pak?
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Paul »

They need the Rajputs to take on the Ulema. During Mughal times, Kachwaha Raputs were positioned by the Kabila near Agra to keep off the upstarts and ulema.

In Pakistan, they have finished/converted the Rajput allies hence are facing this problem.
Last edited by Paul on 16 Apr 2014 21:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by shiv »

KLNMurthy wrote: If these are the discussion dynamics on BRF itself, doesn't that tell us something about the anatomy-etiology-physiology (is that the correct metaphor, shiv?) of the mysterious illness that seems to afflict Indian thinking and decisionmaking wh
Good point there.

I see Indian decision makers suffering from a massive case of cognitive bias - as in "I think in this way and I am normal, so all people would normally think like I do"

India has consistently believed that since Indians have decided to get on with each other and be tolerant towards all political and religious viewpoints, Pakistanis too will be that way even if they are saying something different. they will get over it after some discussion.

I was saddened by something I saw on TV earlier today. It was an interview of Arun jaitley of the BJP - normally confident and erudite, talking in his usual confident erudite manner about Pakistan. He was saying that there s no room left for any discussions on Kashmir (which I agree with) - and he added that - so talks must go on about trade and tourism.

This is the "standard view" that treats Pakistan as a normal nation with which we have some disagreements but progress can be made in other areas. But this is so totally wrong. There is no entity in Pakistan that can reach any agreement with India. There is no agreement that can be signed with anyone in Pakistan that is not at risk of being broken. In India we just don;t seem to understand how badly fractured Pakistan is internally. We trust thatthey are normal and act as if business can be conducted with them. And with our government acting in this manner and leading the way - Indians are united in considering Pakistan as a whole nation that is "bad" or "good" or "friendly" or "unfriendly" and we hope to change that by talking again and again to that same bunch of impotent lying buffoons who are being passed off as "the government of Pakistan"

How often have we seen on here announcements by top Pakistan government personalities that they have just signed a deal where China will invest 10 billion, or UAE wil invest 2 billion. How often have we seen announcements saying that cricketing ties with India will be normalized very soon.

Pakistani "leaders" are constantly bluffing and playing a game. They bluff to everyone. They announce agreements that have not been signed and they sign agreements that cannot be implemented. Do Indians not understand this? How long are we going to keep imagining that there is a"normal nation" next door. If we realize that Pakistan is not normal, why do we insist on treating it like another normal country? We naively believe every word that comes from Pakistan as the truth without checking with what we already know about Pakis.

One of the reasons why I have been hankering for a name change for this thread is that no matter how small or symbolic and useless that name change is - over time visitors to this forum will get used to seeing a reality of Pakistan that we are not accustomed to think about when we hear the name "Pakistan".

Pre-Independence India was simply bisected with a line and it was expected that people on either side of that line would simply get on with each other. India put in a great deal of effort to unite ethnicities and states, highlighting the commonality while allowing space for the differences to exist unfettered (such as linguistic states). In shitistan it was assumed that Islam would simply glue together the garrulous grabbing Punjabis, the feudal Sindhis, the tribal Pakhtuns and the Baluchis. Worse - Urdu - a language native to none of these states was imposed. Islam is no glue. Pakistan is simply a collection of 4 countries clubbed together and being called "one country". It is any wonder that the "government" of this so called country cannot impose law and order, collect taxes or speak on behalf of its diverse people. How long before Indians realize that Pakistan is 4 countries pretending to be one? Should we not be first off the mark advertising that?
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by abhijitm »

1. Mullah Omar will never let S Waziristan and Karachi to slip out of TTP. It has too much of strategic significance.
2. Irrespective of what happens in Afghanistan they will keep their push inside Balochistan. Quetta is already in the hands of Taliban (no matter how much pakis deny that. It was they who created Quetta Shura wasn't it).

JMT.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Prem »

KLNMurthy wrote:
ramana wrote: What we are seeing is inshore balancing of the kabila gurads by the TTP and assorted pakiban.
I dont know if the sarakari mullahs have crossed over to the TTP or not.Do these developments reflect more an upgrade of TTP or the emergence of a more overt alliance between Pakjabi civilian elite under Badmash and their fellow Pakjabi TTP? If it is a consolidation of Pakjab that is going on, then India should be careful about its tentacles extending into Indian Punjab under the guise of shared Punjabiat.
Its the Pakjabi Elites now sensing the loss of power and money in near future. Economic stress gonna increase by the day and we speculated here it will cause greater fissures up north among Paki power centers by the day and down south by the night. There is limited money and shrinking by the day and PA cant have monopoly on Violence /Power. Share They must with new generation/centers and aspirants looking at big Bungalows and Mansions of Jernails etc. Their last economic card is China but Dragon have no record of cash charity, It will make them work like bonded labor .
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by ramana »

Shiv, Long ago I saw a Bollywood movie made in late 40s. The setting was medieval North India with constant raiders coming from across the borders. The actors playing the role of raiders were so realistic, that image of what is now Pakistan has stuck in my mind that nothing has changed over the centuries.
Another image was the speech by Razak (of razakar ill fame) quoted in N. Luther's book "Hyderabad" where he talks about how Hyderabad is a temporary holding place till he and his ilk would rein over Dilli and hoist the green flag over the Lal Quila ramparts.

I then realized the kabila nature of Islamic society in India. It is a kabila for it cannot rest until it converts all of Hindusthan to Islam.
All this tehzeeb, mushairas, biryani, kulture, sufi singers, are all fake to realize that goal which is ever present in all of the raiders progency aka Ashrafs.

Recall Naseeruddin Shah's role in Aamir Khan's movie "Sarforosh" of a sufi singer from TSP connecting with terrorists!

I too agree "namo namah!" There is power in naming names.
And as the Chinese say "Calling things by right name is begining of wisdom!"
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Prem »

anupmisra wrote:Panic!! PM calls urgent meeting on national security
So, what's the take from this panic attack after TTP backed out?
1. The PM has called this meeting (not the PA or other defence related agencies).
2. Cabinet committee runs the meeting. PA+Agencies are expected but not obligated to attend.
3. Meeting at the PM house (not GHQ in pindi or other neutral places).
Something's cooking and it could be Nawaz's goose. Popcorn time.
Talk among Dilli Billies is that Raheel want to make Nawaz Nanga next month by removing his Salwar in public. Plan is to ship out both Nawaz and Mushia to incestral land.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by ramana »

is this in preparation for 2014 exit plans?
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by partha »

Image
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Prem »

ramana wrote:is this in preparation for 2014 exit plans?
Did not think about this point. Massa will like to deal with One Window/Point person to make a deal.
With perspective windfall of Billions, All these Ali Babas and Chorrs will be out with sharp knifes.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by Anujan »

I simply dont believe the narrative in Pakistan that Army wants to fight TTP and Civvies are releasing Taliban without consulting PA. This is the biggest pile of Nandi droppings that has ever been sold.

When Mush was in power, the Army went and signed peace deals after peace deals (remember Nek Mohammad). This is after several TFTAs were goatnapped. Why didnt they fight TTP then? When Zardari was in power and Kayani was pretty much running the show (Recall that he got Husain Haqqani sacked and pretty much ran the foreign policy), there was no TTP operation. If TFTAs wanted to take on the TTP so badly, why didnt they?

Now the new nandi droppings that the Army wants to fight TTP and civvies wont let them. Take the Mushy trial for example: One statement by Raheel that "Army will protect its honor" and everyone's shalwar is brown, the defence minister is on his way out. You think Nawaz released all those taliban without Army's blessing and overruled their judgement?

It is very simple: TFTAs dont have the balls to take on the TTP. All they can do is hide in their cantonments and say "Oh if only they let us fight, we will teach them a lesson!!". Every Jernail and Kernail knows that the lower rungs dont have any appetite in fighting true muslims and the middle rung is browning their pants and the top rung just wants their plot allotment and a cushy job after retirement. They also want to preserve the yahoos to fight in Afghanistan and in JK. Note that the Saudi ambassador Ali Saeed Asiri is back. He was Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan during the last taliban government in Afghanistan and Pak's nuke tests. So what do you think TFTAs are planning except for Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and terrorism under the nuclear umbrella?

ABV was right. India has an army of Soldiers. Pakistan has an army of electricity meter readers, fertilizer sellers, real estate developers ....
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014

Post by RSoami »

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-1 ... ni-Network

Pakistan warns ... Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network. :eek:
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