1. Fifteen independent MLAs have contacted me and they are ready to join us
2. BJ P : 99 - SS: 57
Thus the 50-50 formula in MH IMO might be to Participation of Cabinet Ministers BJP : 65 - SS : 30 - INDPENDENTS : 05 Basis
Cheers
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:22
by Deans
I have been crunching numbers since GE 2014, trying to get broad electoral trends.
Couple of overall points:
In EVERY assembly election since 2014 (barring small NE states), the BJP has got a lower vote share than in LS-2014.
That is because its vote share in 2014, apart from those voting on the basis of ideology / committed voters comprised:
1. Those who believed Modiji was the best candidate / BJP best party for national issues. &
2. Those who wanted to teach Cong a lesson for mis-governance
In state elections, there is a loss of upto 4% on account of reason 1.
If the Cong govt is not in power at that state, there is additional vote share loss of 4% (no `displeased with Cong defector' votes)
If the BJP is in power at that state, there is a further 4% loss due to Anti incumbency (voters perceiving no difference in local govt between a
BJP and non BJP govt, at least before 2019).
Thus Guj / Raj & MP had a 10-12% loss on vote share for the BJP in assembly elections compared to 2014.
In Haryana there was a 3% loss in share in state elections of 2014, as Cong was the party in power in Haryana. (same in Mah).
In 2019, the BJP increased its share in all its core states (crossed 50% share in 16 states). With that kind of majority, it should be immune to
opposition alliances and to fall in vote share in state elections.
However, it appears that in Haryana this time, its vote share has fallen by a massive 22% (though higher than assembly 2014 - 36% vs 33%) with a higher level of opposition unity. In Mah, the combined share of BJP/SS is 10% lower than in 2019. (that's the anti incumbency effect, since in 2014,
it was just 3% lower than LS 2014). This anti incumbency has happened even though DF was possibly a good CM choice and Cong had no CM candidate.
So, BJP led state govts have to perform and they have to be perceived as being better than the alternative.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:23
by syam
bjp should have gone solo. why they need alliance with shivsena in first place any way. last time bjp contested in 260 seats and won 122. Now they contested in only 152 seats and winning 102. can someone explain logic behind this? what shivsena brings to the table that bjp itself can't get it on its own?
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:27
by abhijitm
pankajs wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:What is very evident is that the MSM has finally learned, and shifted strategy. Predict MASSIVE BJP wins, and the yindoos go {yawn} and don't go out to vote.
I would think Amit Shah also pushed that line. The complacency in the carder and base is an outcome of such statements by big leaders like him.
Works both ways. Can have demoralizing effect on opposition workers while internally you push your workers harder. In ideal situation a leader wants wokers show up for election work with boosted moral. Have seen leaders pulling out karyakartas from their home for work. So better of two devils is to assure your workers that victory is their to take. Typical moral boosting of soldiers strategy during war.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:28
by chetak
2014- BJP got 123/288 seats fought.
2019- BJP may get 100/164 seats fought.
the strike rate is much better in 2019.
It either conceded too many seats to the SS
or it erred grievously by not going it alone and then hooking up with the SS using the 2014 formula.
All in all, the BJP has not done badly, even though the actual numbers are down because of the much lower strike rate of the SS
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:31
by Deans
UlanBatori wrote:What is very evident is that the MSM has finally learned, and shifted strategy. Predict MASSIVE BJP wins, and the yindoos go {yawn} and don't go out to vote.
I don't think our English language media have the slightest clue about voter intentions.
In opinion/ exit polls, there is a tendency to play it safe. So if, the survey shows BJP with 35% and Cong with 33% with a 2% margin of error,
the surveyor, assuming it will be a BJP landslide, based on LS 2019 results, will assume 37-31, and translate that to seats, whereas it could well be 34% each. I'm not sure there is evidence to suggest the voters who voted in LS 2019 and stayed home this time, would have voted BJP. Possibly there felt LS 2019 was sufficiently important for them to go out and vote but if they were unhappy with the state govt, their reaction would be to either stay home, or (worse case) vote for an opposition candidate.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:32
by chetak
twitter
Exactly. 16 candidates were such that they said before voting that they will support BJP
If some people want to claim moral loss then that has 0 relevance in forming government.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:38
by abhijitm
syam wrote:bjp should have gone solo. why they need alliance with shivsena in first place any way. last time bjp contested in 260 seats and won 122. Now they contested in only 152 seats and winning 102. can someone explain logic behind this? what shivsena brings to the table that bjp itself can't get it on its own?
Over the years BJP and SS have developed core vote bank. These people will go with the party leaders in any scenario. SS developed local rooted leaders from the beginning so even when these leaders like ganesh naik, narayan rane left SS and joined cong they still retained their vote base. Similarly many exisiting leaders of SS. This core is detached from more global issues like hindutva etc.
Now, BJP is already fighting against two big parties. If they ditch SS then SS, NCP and INC can come together in MH and fight against BJP. This scenario is not far fetched. I know SS and their workers and hate for BJP is evident. Their hindu voters will vote SS even if they form alliance with INC. This is complicated. So the best is to keep SS with BJP for now. The day BJP leadership think they can take on all 3 parties alone be assured BJP will drop SS in first instance.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:39
by Deans
chetak wrote:2014- BJP got 123/288 seats fought.
2019- BJP may get 100/164 seats fought.
the strike rate is much better in 2019.
It either conceded too many seats to the SS
or it erred grievously by not going it alone and then hooking up with the SS using the 2014 formula.
All in all, the BJP has not done badly, even though the actual numbers are down because of the much lower strike rate of the SS
BJP + SS got 10% lower votes compared to LS 2019 (roughly same split of seats). That is the real problem (see my previous post on vote share loss
between LS and state assembly).
The BJP was able to get 123 seats in 2014 with a 28% vote share because the NCP & Cong fought separately. BJP would have been decimated this time if they fought alone against a combined Cong-NCP.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:44
by chetak
imran khan niazi has been reduced to this
jehadi writing on cashmeri apples being sent to the rest of India
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:46
by syam
abhijitm wrote:
Over the years BJP and SS have developed core vote bank. These people will go with the party leaders in any scenario. SS developed local rooted leaders from the beginning so even when these leaders like ganesh naik, narayan rane left SS and joined cong they still retained their vote base. Similarly many exisiting leaders of SS. This core is detached from more global issues like hindutva etc.
I don't think shivsena is same as it was during bala saheb time. Given chance, all of them will jump to bjp camp. bjp should have taken the risk and gone for post-poll alliance if it didn't work. Now we are not sure shivsena will stick to alliance.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:51
by abhijitm
Peregrine wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Btw 50-50 formula in MH means half term bjp CM and half term SS CM. Disaster.
abhijitm Ji :
Further my Post 24 Oct 2019 18:39, the Article now states :
1. Fifteen independent MLAs have contacted me and they are ready to join us
2. BJ P : 99 - SS: 57
Thus the 50-50 formula in MH IMO might be to Participation of Cabinet Ministers BJP : 65 - SS : 30 - INDPENDENTS : 05 Basis
Cheers
No sir, 50-50 means rotation of CM post. It was SS demand since last term. Cabinet sacrifice for BJP is given. This 50-50 is much more serious. I hope DF will call foxtrot oscar to Uddhav.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 19:55
by chetak
twitter
◆BJP: 103 out of 164. 63% Strike Rate
◆SS: 60 out of 124. 48% Strike Rate
◆INC: 44 out of 145. 30% Strike Rate
◆NCP: 55 out of 123. 45% Strike Rate.
BJP is number one in seats as well in Strike Rate. Still verdict is against BJP and in favor of INC and NCP
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:01
by chetak
ANI Verified account @ANI 3h3 hours ago
Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis: 15 independent MLAs have contacted me and they are ready to come with us. Others may also come but these 15 will come with us. Most of them are BJP or Shiv Sena rebels.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:03
by Prem Kumar
To woo the Hindu vote, you have to:
1) Give 5 years of excellent governance
2) Appease all castes & not piss off any major ones
3) Show job growth
4) Control inflation
5) Give welfare
6) Get everyone to vote
To get the Abrahamic vote:
1) You need to give a sermon from the pulpit (or) issue fatwa from mosque
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:09
by shravanp
syam wrote:bjp should have gone solo. why they need alliance with shivsena in first place any way. last time bjp contested in 260 seats and won 122. Now they contested in only 152 seats and winning 102. can someone explain logic behind this? what shivsena brings to the table that bjp itself can't get it on its own?
Simple reason. Cong NCP were in alliance and shared seats. Previously all four fought independently.
Had BJP and Shiv Sena fought separately, Cong NCP alliance would have won. Cant afford to lose Maharashtra
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:25
by pankajs
India Today
Haryana: BJP 40 + 5 (BJP rebels)
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:29
by syam
Yeah. Similar result in Maha too. .
BJP 105 + 15(rebels). close call. things turned out ok for bjp in the end.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:33
by pankajs
pankajs wrote:1. SS will transfer its ideological vote to BJP if it ties up with NCP/CON.
2. OTOH, BJP can tie up with NCP. Didn't we hear that Modi is good friends with Pawar?
My hunch says that @PawarSpeaks will offer CM post to Sena with outside support and also convince Cong to support the formation from outside. This would effectively checkmate BJP.
This would effectively destroy all those 3 parties irreversibly! Pawar is desperate but he's not stupid
The ideological foks from all parties will defect and in that scenario the yinduvadi vote of SS will defect to BJP. Leader dependent will stick with the party.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:34
by Picklu
syam wrote:Yeah. Similar result in Maha too. .
BJP 105 + 15(rebels). close call. things turned out ok for bjp in the end.
That would be 120, still 25 short from the magic no and gives enough bargaining power to SS
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:50
by syam
it's win-win situation for both bjp and supporters.
If bjp forms government, it's win. If they can't, it's still win. bjp with 120 will gain big from core sena folks in future. If bjp loses both states, it will shift its stance to little right. big win for supporters. It's like winning the game and losing everything for opp.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:52
by Karthik S
Prem Kumar wrote:To woo the Hindu vote, you have to:
1) Give 5 years of excellent governance
2) Appease all castes & not piss off any major ones
3) Show job growth
4) Control inflation
5) Give welfare
6) Get everyone to vote
7) Uphold law equally, usually indic complaints on 'minorities' fall on deaf ears.
8 ) Don't desecrate places of worship, shani shignapur etc.
9) Don't milk hindu temples taking 500 crores from shirdi interest free IIRC.
10) Don't discourage and guilt trip hindus on celebration of festivals (phadnavees taking oath from students of many schools not to burst crackers). Police acting more secular than secular.
11) Crack down on EJ and jihadi network, first lady of state having lunch and photo ops with gora EJs. Some other mumbai MLA inviting everyone for xmas.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 20:59
by chetak
twitter
So Hv EVMs worked or been hacked as per Oppn folks?
CHENNAI: The Madras high court has ordered notice to the state government on a PIL seeking to remove the commissioner of Hindu Religious and Charitable Rndowments (HR&CE) department and other authorities from their offices for not taking a pledge to the effect that they are Hindus by birth and are professing Hinduism as mandated by law.
Admitting a PIL moved by S Sridharan, as advocate based in Chennai, a division bench of Justices M Sathyanarayanan and N Seshasayee directed the state to file its response by November 28.
The HR & CE Act allowed only those who profess Hinduism to serve the Hindu temples, according to the petitioner. At any level of the department, officials could continue to render their service only as long as they were Hindus. “Every person appointed under the Act shall sign a pledge in the prescribed format before entering upon his duties. The appointee should take the pledge before the presiding deity in the nearest Hindu temple in the presence of the executive officer or chairman, board of trustees of the temple,” Sridharan said.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 21:30
by Sachin
sanjayc wrote:Since Gandhi's time, Hindus have developed an emotional attachment to anti-Hindu parties who damage their interests. Shows an inability to think clearly.
BJP can only do so much -- the Hindus too need to open their eyes rather than behave like cussed mules who cannot be made to see reason
Blaming the Hindus alone is not enough (at least in KL context). The BJP KL unit did not have any thing to offer to the people of Kerala. KL may have lots of drawbacks and unique aspects, but then KL BJP needs to strategise based on that. We must understand that KL has a large number of RSS workers and shakhas. That is one movement which the commies have not been able to put a stop to. But even in the RSS rank & file there is rampant dislike to the "political class" i.e the BJP.
There is much more work which BJP can do in KL. But that requires grooming of a totally new leadership. The fact is that even in Sabari Mala issue the senior leadership of BJP have done NOTHING to stop the commies in their tracks. The man power (which led to the protests) came from the RSS and the common Hindus who were religious and apolitical. The BJP leadership first supported the verdict, then back tracked and then made a big promise of fixing things if they win the Lok Sabha elections. Now that LS 2019 is over, the state level BJP is not showing any interest in trying to resolve the problem and basically asking the Hindus to wait for the review petitions. This plus some other earlier statements of BJP state level leadership send out the signal that for BJP Sabari Mala temple issue is more of a vote garner scheme than any defense of Hindu faith.
To summarise; Kerala BJP cannot have a plan which is keeping Hindus in pressure using their temples & faith hoping that they would be forced to vote for the BJP (and its mediocre leadership). I don't think BJP has tried such a defeatist strategy any where in India.
pankajs wrote:Haryana: BJP 40 + 5 (BJP rebels)
syam wrote:BJP 105 + 15(rebels). close call. things turned out ok for bjp in the end.
So alls well that ends well. From afternoon itself some of the main stream media which I followed had taken down their earlier breaking news that Congress would form the govt in Haryana.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 21:45
by chetak
A poke in the eye of our eternal pessimists who forage for problems, never solutions
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 22:05
by Karthik S
Gaurav Mohnot @mohnotgaurav18 1h
BJP had lost every Muslim Majority seats in Mah, Hary, UP, Bihar, WB & Assam.
No kind of extra appeasement to Minority will help. Peacefuls will never vote for BJP whatever you do.
Clear message : Better Work for Hindus.
@AmitShah @narendramodi
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 22:20
by vishvak
close call. things turned out ok
The close call and ok are the times when a vote bank (not each and every, obviously) will keep watching to eat democracy in parts by hedging on both sides with real or perceive d claims. What has hindoo not learnt for how many hundreds of years. Even in wars some switch sides at opportune moments but hindoo learn not from that too.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 22:25
by kittoo
Karthik S wrote:
Gaurav Mohnot @mohnotgaurav18 1h
BJP had lost every Muslim Majority seats in Mah, Hary, UP, Bihar, WB & Assam.
No kind of extra appeasement to Minority will help. Peacefuls will never vote for BJP whatever you do.
Clear message : Better Work for Hindus.
@AmitShah @narendramodi
There are Muslim majority seats in Maharashtra too? Surprised.
CHENNAI: The Madras high court has ordered notice to the state government on a PIL seeking to remove the commissioner of Hindu Religious and Charitable Rndowments (HR&CE) department and other authorities from their offices for not taking a pledge to the effect that they are Hindus by birth and are professing Hinduism as mandated by law.
Admitting a PIL moved by S Sridharan, as advocate based in Chennai, a division bench of Justices M Sathyanarayanan and N Seshasayee directed the state to file its response by November 28.
The HR & CE Act allowed only those who profess Hinduism to serve the Hindu temples, according to the petitioner. At any level of the department, officials could continue to render their service only as long as they were Hindus. “Every person appointed under the Act shall sign a pledge in the prescribed format before entering upon his duties. The appointee should take the pledge before the presiding deity in the nearest Hindu temple in the presence of the executive officer or chairman, board of trustees of the temple,” Sridharan said.
Thank you Saar! I will take any good news from TN. I am very depressed after I watched that stupid vijay fans antics. I know it is a long way to go in TN,KL where government takes over and sickularizes Hindu Temples
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 22:45
by pankajs
^^
I wrote a while back ... things that earlier were given a pass are being challenged even in states like TN. Will take time but turnaround will happen.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 23:00
by greatde
Haryana in 2009, despite 9 LS seats, Congress got 35 in state elections. Its a similar story here for BJP today. Additionally, BJP rebels caused dents in some 5-10 seats
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 24 Oct 2019 23:24
by vijayk
get better CMs with strong ideological background too.
In many ways, I am more disappointed at the Maha result no matter what spin ModiJi/Shah/Fadnavis put out on strike rate. Reason being that Maha is a big and strategically important state nationally, and more worryingly, BJP has to depend on those Shiv Sena louts. I can't stand those jokers. They can be constant drag on BJP.
Saudi Arabia is the 3rd country in the gulf to get RuPay card facility after UAE, Bahrain
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 25 Oct 2019 01:12
by UlanBatori
Looks like Haryana is a slap against poor governance. 8 of 10 mantris lost. I assume they deserved it? This may be a sign that the electorate EXPECTS enlightened governance.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 25 Oct 2019 02:43
by V_Raman
Well they better shape up then. Modi can get them only so Far!
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 25 Oct 2019 03:26
by UlanBatori
This is the message I see. 90% of the massive support that the Bee Jay Pee is riding on, is because Modi is an honest and capable leader. The other 10% is because Amit Shah is smart and "pro-active" and no-nonsense. But the vast majority of BeeJayPee mid-level and state level netaship is no different from their con-grej and commie contemporaries. A massive tsunami of "we won't accept this level" has to come up from the aam janata to put the "BJ" back in the BJP. Applies in Karnataka obviously, and now it seems in Haryana as well. How many more states? They need to get waaaaay beyond the Valentine's Day Morality Polis and Cowicide-Lynching mentalities. (heading to cave now b4 the mijjiles come).
If 8 out of 10 MINISTERS lose, that is not because people stayed home out of lack of interest. It is because they CAME OUT to vote. Good riddance.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Posted: 25 Oct 2019 03:32
by pankajs
Watch this India Today exit poll analysis on Haryana
So alls well that ends well. From afternoon itself some of the main stream media which I followed had taken down their earlier breaking news that Congress would form the govt in Haryana.
