Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

[vivek_ahuja]

DAY 9 5:52 IST
Somewhere in Central India

Noise of brisk braking could be heard far away but this was not the main concern for Vivek Ahuja. He had to make sure that all the boxes were brought in ASAP. He had no time to waste. Workers were busy bringing boxes and cleaning the house. Vivek Ahuja glanced at his Rolex..........6:19. He walked up to the window that opened eastward giving him clear view of cluster of huts occupied by Tibetans. He could feel the day break. Sun about to rise above the horizon. He was thinking about next post he is going to post on BR. Hundreds of Brites in Delhi, Banglore, Mumbai, SF, New York , London , Paris, Kabul,Pindi and Beijing are waiting for his posts. Suddenly he remembered something. He was looking for boxes marked "K". He had to find those boxes and set the contents immediately. No. there were no desktops or laptops there. The contents were kitchen utensils. SHQ will be there any moment and cooking range has to be functional ASAP.
The door bell rings............

lol....nice one.

Ahuja ji, I hope you escaped court martial

[vivek_ahuja]

DAY 9 + 0740 HRS (L)

THE ADVANCE TO BARSHONG
EIGHT KILOMETERS EAST OF BARSHONG
NORTHERN BHUTAN

The small dusty clearing was covered in a small cloud of loose flying gravel as the Dhruv helicopter approached for a landing. The skids touched down, displaced some loose rocks and settled down. The sliding doors opened and Colonel Misra stepped off, running to the edge of the makeshift helipad. His battalion’s field commander and Captain Pathanya were standing, their rifles slung over their chests and their faces covered in grime. All three men had replaced their helmets with their red berets despite the cold. It was not so much a head cover as a badge of honor for the paratroopers. Misra walked past them and patted them on their shoulders to follow him away from the noise of the parked Dhruv’s engines. They walked a few dozen feet away and watched as several medical personnel carried wounded paratroopers on stretchers to the open doors of the helicopter…

“What’s the deal? Why are we stopped?” Misra said finally once they had walked a good distance away from the helicopter’s noise. They still had to yell, but it was bearable. The Major commanding the 11TH Para-SF in the field pointed his arm to the series of ridgelines between them and Barshong to the west.

“The Chinese reinforced battalion at Barshong is putting up a hell of a fight, sir. We broke through their lines north of Dotanang and swept past their destroyed anti-air battery north from there, where Pathanya and his men had engaged them. He and his men killed about twenty or so of their soldiers and my men must have killed about fifty? So they still have quite a few men at Barshong. Their reinforced infantry company attempted to retake the territory but we held them off. Now they have withdrawn somewhere on those ridges. We only have two of the BMPs left with us now. I don’t have the manpower to flush them out in frontal attacks on each successive ridgeline.”

“I would not recommend that either,” Misra agreed as he nodded. “But we don’t have that many reinforcements to play around with either. The Chinese commander of that Highland Brigade is playing hard to get with his remaining troops. He is forcing us to fight him for every ridge and in every case he will fight, inflict and suffer casualties and then pull back to the next line of defense, wearing us down piece by piece until we get to Barshong but have no strength left to take it from him. That’s unacceptable, gentlemen. I need Barshong! It’s the only foothold the Chinese have left that threatens Thimpu. The Chinese have a base camp in the village there and they are bringing in ground forces over the hump from the Chumbi valley between the Jomolhari and Kangcheda peaks. And that is the route the Chinese 43RD Airborne Division would take once it got to the Chumbi to enter Bhutan and threaten all of our advances made to secure Thimpu thus far. It will also secure the left flank of their 15TH Airborne Corps as it attempts to retake the strategic peaks and routes secured by our Divisions from the 33RD Corps. We cannot allow that to happen!”

The peaks of the Himalayas that formed the side walls enveloping the Chumbi were massive and jutted far above the base of the valley. In the valley, the Chinese main supply routes were located, on very flat terrain that allowed them to bring in reinforcements from Gyantse to the fight below. In the initial days of the war, the neutrality of the airspace above and the presence of the S-300 surface-to-air missile safety bubble had allowed the Chinese to bring in their Highland Brigade via helicopter airlift and ground infiltration to Barshong and a few other locations to begin the assault to the south towards Thimpu. Barshong was, and remained a valuable target to be retaken from the enemy…

“If we can dislodge the Chinese from Barshong, we can remove the gathering point for their paratrooper reinforcements after they descend down the route between the Jomolhari and Kangcheda. It will make any assault from such dispersed locations completely worthless. Besides, once Barshong is in our hands, they can’t use their Mi-17s to land troops directly into Bhutan anymore. So they will be forced to take the trek down the peaks on foot for days during which time this war will be over for them! You see why we cannot sit here and twiddle our thumbs while Barshong stays in their hands?” Misra said to both of his officers forcefully. He didn’t have to, though. They knew much of this beforehand and were familiar with the terrain. More so for Pathanya than the Major but that was because he had been in country longer, as General Potgam’s eyes and ears.

“Understood sir! But we still cannot take those ridges in between here and Barshong. I need more men,” the Major replied back.

“Or different tactics altogether,” Misra retorted. “Gentlemen, I see that we are all wearing the red berets that only the paratroopers get to wear. So how about we stop acting like frontline infantry and start thinking like paratroopers are supposed to do!”

[vivek_ahuja]

DAY 9 + 0940 HRS (L)

GOLMUD AIRBASE
NORTHERN TIBET

The first rays of sunlight had broken through the gray clouds to reveal the morning on the ninth day of the war. The sunlight illuminated the tips of the peaks surrounding the valley. But as the valley reverberated under the characteristic whine of the IL-76’s engine noise, few looked up from their work on the base. The KJ-2000 touched down on the concrete of the runway, leaving puffs of smoke in its wake and rolled all the way to the western end of the runway. Aircraft landing at such high altitudes had to land faster and had substantially longer roll distances. The aircraft sped past the main tarmac area where a KJ-200 stood parked with engines switched off while a very tired and weary flight crew stepped off and boarded the bus that would take them to their secure bunker residences at the airbase. Further down the line five Su-27s remained parked and loaded out to full capacity with air-to-air weapons. Two of their brethren were rolling to take their place on the runway for take-off just as the massive AWACS aircraft rolled off and headed towards its designated parking area under the guidance of a ground crew driving in a utility vehicle in front of them…

[vivek_ahuja]

DAY 9 + 0940 HRS (L)

AIRSPACE OVER NORTHERN BHUTAN

The EW operator on board the Indian CABS AEW aircraft checked his watch and noted the time on his notepad with a pencil…
Twelve hours to the mark…He thought to himself and grunted in amusement.

Yes. The Chinese had gotten complacent and fallen into a cycle of operations that had become highly predictable. Just a few minutes ago the replacement KJ-2000 for the one that had returned to Golmud had broadcast its radar emissions for him to see and detect. And he did so. The Chinese 76TH Airborne Command and Control Regiment was running defensive operations like clockwork out of Golmud with Su-27 and J-11 support from 19TH Division’s roster. Almost all of these were now on DCA tasking around their northern Tibet DF-21C missile locations. At least it appeared that way.

It doesn’t matter what they are defending. That’s not my job…the EW operator told himself as he typed up the latest EW track information and transmitted it to the operations center at Shillong.

Just as he had done before…

[vivek_ahuja]

DAY 9 + 0950 HRS (L)

OPERATIONS CENTER
INDIAN EASTERN AIR COMMAND
SHILLONG, INDIA

…This time, however, the situation was different. The IAF operations staff at Shillong immediately downloaded the EW update for northern Tibet and the officers nodded their approval for the PLAAF Divisional commanders for their strict sense of command and control regimen over their airborne radar assets. The officer in charge of electronic intelligence gathering for the Eastern Air Command, Group-Captain Gurnesh Singh picked up the phone.

“EAC-EWOps Commander here. Get me Ops Director on the line right away,” he spoke into his phone. A few seconds later the tired voice of the Air-Commodore in charge of day-to-day operations in the EAC came online:

“What is it, Gurnesh?”
“EWOps crew on board our radar bird over northern Bhutan confirms arrival of the replacement red radar bird over Lhasa. The 76TH ACCR is doing its job like clockwork. No deviations detected apart from usual AO handover delays. So it looks like the turkey has returned to the roost.” Singh said to his boss.

“Good job. Looks like our Chinese friends have become as complacent as we did. We paid our price. Now it is time for them to pay theirs. I am passing the word up the ladder here for Operation Hammer-Down. I will keep you posted. Out”

[vivek_ahuja]

DAY 9 + 0955 HRS (L)

OPERATION HAMMER-DOWN
NORTH OF BAGHDOGRA AIRBASE
INDIA

Five minutes later, word came down for the battery commander and his crew from SFC headquarters. His men had been briefed on this beforehand and had several hours to prepare. They were ready. Within a minute the noise from the hydraulic pumps filled the air and first of the three Agni-I missile launchers elevated their precious cargo. As the missiles reached their elevated position and close to ninety degrees on the zenith, the ground crews cleared off to safety. The sunlight glistened on the camouflaged paint on the missile body that carried the black painted re-entry warhead. A few seconds later the ground reverberated and an exhaust of fire and smoke came of out the nozzles of the first missile. The exhaust smoke cloud filled the air and enveloped the missile. Moments later the warhead tip of the missile elevated above the gathering cloud and the missile lifted into the clear blue morning skies above underneath a pillar of exhaust smoke. It was followed seconds later by the second missile and then the third. Within a minute the missiles were all in the air and their pencil thin trailing exhaust outlined their parabolic trajectories north, deep into Tibet…

[vivek_ahuja]

DAY 9 + 1005 HRS (L)

GOLMUD AIRBASE
NORTHERN TIBET

…There was little time for the Chinese to respond. The KJ-2000 airborne radar aircraft over Lhasa immediately picked up the missile launches as the missiles moved above the elevation of the Tibetan plains and accelerated far above into the upper edges of the atmosphere. Pretty soon they were above and beyond the detection range of the Chinese radars even as the warheads separated from the boosters. The latter fell back into the atmosphere, burning up along the way. The three black warheads moved above all available --and remaining—Chinese air defenses and entered the atmosphere on their way down south of the Golmud airbase…

The klaxons were sounding off at the airbase as the warning from the airborne KJ-2000 crew came down the 26TH Air Division HQ at Korla to Golmud. But there was no defense possible. As every Chinese soldier on the ground ran for cover, dumping whatever they carried with them at that moment of time, the three conventional, thousand kilogram warheads streaked through the atmosphere above their heads. At the speeds involved, it might as well have been instantaneous.

The first warhead exploded a few dozen meters above the camouflaged revetments being used by the crews of the 821 Brigade and their three CJ-10 GLCM launch, command and control and support vehicles. The expanding ball of white flame flashed through the area, ravaging the ground and reflecting the shockwaves across the hard terrain in all directions. The thunderclap instantly deafened anyone within the Golmud valley and the expanding circle of destruction behind a wall of gravel and rocks swept through the outer perimeter of the airbase…

The second warhead slammed into the hard tarmac being used by the 76TH ACCR and the inverted cone of flame and destroyed concrete rose hundreds of feet into the air before expanding outwards and sweeping across the parked KJ-2000, the KJ-200 and all five Su-27s on the ground in its wake. The mushroom cloud of dust and smoke was now rising thousands of feet into the air when the last warhead, a bit delayed at launch, swept overhead and crushed its way into the runway right along the center. In one brutal and sudden sweep the Chinese 26TH Air Division and its organic 76TH ACCR had lost the bulk of its airborne radar assets and the 821 Brigade assets previously assigned to the PLAAF was no more. By the time the thunder and echoes of the explosions rippled through northern Tibet and dissipated away, the three mushroom clouds of dust had enveloped the entire Golmud airbase as they rose into the cloudy skies above…

[Singha]

wah ustaad, kya tamacha mara!

Gen Liu is going to be very displeased. the next leadership meeting is going to be epic.

[Chinmayanand]

Damn !!! Would have loved the deatils of few chinese soldiers on fire and running and cursing the CCP.

[Bala Vignesh]

Won't the use of a ballistic missile be considered an escalation of hostility???
But awesome payback to the chinese.. They got B!#ch-slapped..

[Yashu]

What a payback, retaliation at it best, without being provoked to fall in trap the cheenas wanted us by bombing Tawang

Great!!!

[Singha]

http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=rela ... dYfaGtA9G4

Impact of a 2000lb jdam in ground impact mode. The collateral damage on exposed targets would be more in airburst warhead of similar size in agni1 case...probably titanium balls layered on top of explosive core to attack exposed soft skinned targets like trucks, missiles , radars and planes.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwrel&v=l1OqbwtIPy4

If there is ever a kargil2 i want to see this

[nash]

I think now its time to knock out the remaining airbase and take full control of sky above tibet and go for surgical strike on Infantry divison which were recently deployed, without giving any time to think to china. By the time they realize what happen they would lost most of the assets and can't continue war unless they move their remaining ones from their main cities, and that will led to shocking effect on chinese public and things go out of hand for PRC.

By that time viky will kick out their naval flotilla form IOR and block or destroy their capital and merchant ships, and that will again a devastating revelation of war for chinese people.

[Singha]

+1 sir. Time to bite juggler vein to use a pakword.

[chaanakya]

I assume that the Rail link to Lhasa is also severed. Golmund being main centre where it has a major station. probably the road link S303, G 215, G 109 would have suffered too. Besides some collateral damage in the town itself. Airbase has hardened bunkers north of the base connecting to the airfield. I am sure that is gone to. Could we have some damage assessment from Chinese War room?

[Eric Leiderman]

The jugler vein is jiggling as the kimino shiverers leave the dhoti shiverers in the dust.

[RamaY]

Bravo Vivekji!

Kudos to you that you are breaking the nonsensical assumption that only Pakis and China can escalate a war to the next level.

No hurry on the force attrition levels. I am hoping once you have your excel sheet worked on it would be nice to see the expected attrition levels on a day to day basis in the first 10-15 days. Given the a-prachya nature of our neighbors they will not be able to fight a long-drawn conventional wars over many months and years. Throughout the world the longevity of the wars are determined by the type of weapons they have in their hands. Given the fact that both the A-prachya neighbors have nukes, they will be tempted to use them at perceived red-lines.

My research shows that we might have anywhere between

150-250 Prithvis
60-80 agni 1s.

Assuming we keep 20% of them + Agni 2&3 for strategic purposes (how many nuke targets we have in china in 250-1000km range?), the rest (80% of Prithvis and agni 1s) can be used for conventional purposes?

That is at least 30-50 Agnis an be used to cleaning up the yellow sh*t in Tibet and reclaim the nuke assets for peaceful Tibetans?

[Khalsa]

Picture of India, Russia, China and Japan at night time. Courtesy NASA

Perspective on Indian and Chinese populations and targets availability for Total War Scenarios.
Either way a lovely picture of the continent showing pop densities and to consider.

[Singha]

japan , taiwan west coast look very densely populated. java island also.

[SaiK]

I like the thin density desserts of Rajasthan.. super de cool e-strategic place to do all types of long ranged road mobile canister launches.

NE regions are thin-k density too.


how old is that map?

[Misraji]

An Agni strike is quite an escalation!!!

Given the fact that the launch was detected almost immediately, I am wondering why there was no immediate retaliatory strikes.
How feasible is it to extrapolate the general target area based on the boost-phase analysis of the missile?

I mean if the situation had been the other way around, and we had BM strike coming towards us, would we able to figure out the target area?
If it turned out to be Delhi (or any of the metros) would we wait for the strike to finish, or we immediately order retaliatory strikes?

Kind of risky game to play!!

--Ashish.

[Avarachan]

I don't know why people are so surprised by the Agni strike. Dr. Kalam, in Wings of Fire, explicitly states that conventional strike is part of Agni's mission. "A great deal of misinformation and disinformation had been spread by vested interests about this technology mission. Agni had never been intended only as a nuclear weapon system. What it did was to afford us the option of developing the ability to deliver non-nuclear weapons with high precision at long ranges. That it provided us with a viable non-nuclear option was of the greatest relevance to contemporary strategic doctrines" (page 153).

[vasu raya]

The picture shows that Tibet literally is just a buffer state, and the Chinese mindset is at work when they are trying to claim another buffer zone, the SCS to protect its eastern sea board, nothing that long range precision missiles, DPSA and in future hypersonics cannot solve, whether we choose to fly them over Tibet or from the seas outside SCS to reach their economic heartland. So, whats the point in ill treating Tibetans?

if sea based minerals and hydrocarbons are another justification for their claims on the SCS , they already are undertaking deep sea mining or have acquired such rights in the Indian ocean i.e., diversifying. Again, whats the point in burning bridges with ASEAN nations over SCS?

[SKrishna]

Picture of India, Russia, China and Japan at night time. Courtesy NASA

Perspective on Indian and Chinese populations and targets availability for Total War Scenarios.
Either way a lovely picture of the continent showing pop densities and to consider.

This is not a true night time picture but a extrapolation composite image of population growth overtime . See this report: Viral satellite image of 'India on Diwali night' has nothing to do with Diwali. The true night picture of asia is below. This is also a composite image taken from IR-Visual range camera.



Courtesy: Gizmodo

[Singha]

An Agni strike is quite an escalation!!!

Given the fact that the launch was detected almost immediately, I am wondering why there was no immediate retaliatory strikes.
How feasible is it to extrapolate the general target area based on the boost-phase analysis of the missile?

I mean if the situation had been the other way around, and we had BM strike coming towards us, would we able to figure out the target area?
If it turned out to be Delhi (or any of the metros) would we wait for the strike to finish, or we immediately order retaliatory strikes?

Kind of risky game to play!!

--Ashish.

perhaps you missed the old memo. you think killing 100s of civilians in a deliberate strike in tawang is not? or launching a barrage of ALCMs to try and kill our political and mil leaders in Delhi on day1 of the war?

CMs tipped with nuclear warhead could have taken out delhi as good as a DF21c.

India has a declared second strike policy which I assume given our dharmic pretensions means launch on impact, not launch on detect. Cheen might follow same policy for military targets and non-strategic areas...golmud is hardly trantor or coruscant for sure...just some flea bitten Qinghai province...far from the elegant restaurants of Peking.

even if the local 2nd arty bosses get apeshit insane at the tamacha, he still needs PAL launch code from beijing else he will be shot like a dog and his body parts sold to soup kitchens as will all of his family and relatives. gen Liu will need to convince Chairman Peng who will need some consensus from a few top leaders how Cheen should respond now. as I said the next meeting in great hall will be epic for the rage levels

restraint cannot be a one way street.

[Chinmayanand]

Now , i am waiting for the cheeni aircraft carrier to get halaled in the ocean by IN. then , would love to see the CCP meeting where everybody will be ordering deer benis over the loss of their tfta carrier force and onslaught in tibet. I wonder if CCP members will convene a meeting wearing masks as some face is lost.

[Singha]

there are sure to be a strong squad of pistol armed royal guard in hidden side rooms to quell the situation if it got out of hand. failure and loss of face is always ruthlessly punished to set an example to keep rest in line.

thats how they work.

[Anand K]

Remember how Beria fell.... when he apparently tried to take the FSU in another direction? Quite a scene if the various memoirs are to be believed. The plan was pieced together by Khrushchev, Molotov and the Marshals a few days after Stalin kicked the bucket. One fine morning, Beria is shouted down and denounced at some Politburo meeting. Zhukov paaji himself and some officers emerged from an ante-room and swooped him up. Two whole divisions move into Moscow. Simultaneously Beria's cronies are picked all across the nation.......... real Night of the Long Knives/Godfather baptism scene/Friday the 13th stuff. Anyway, he had the honor of being shot in the face (by a General!) while he pee'ed his pants and bawled his eyes out a few dins later.

I read somewhere they have this fanatical Banner Guards regiment stationed in Beijing to prevent any mass of Aam Ashis breaking into Zhongnanhai to lynch the c*nts within. (You know, like the climax from that Tom Clancy trash "The Bear and the Dragon". What a POS that was!)

Rumors and fiction like this and other real life examples like the Qom Mullahs' own troops, the regicide experts the Praetorians turned into and the Valkyrie episode makes me think how exactly this Chinese Paetorian Guard is structured and controlled.
BTW.... them Chicoms should also have a Continuity of the (Red) Government thing right?

[jamwal]

I think that India has a No First Use policy against non-nuclear nations onlee. Nuclear weapons can also be used to retaliate against a biological or chemical attack.
Is CEP of Agni 1 low enough for it's use in carrying conventional warheads at it's full range ?

[Anand K]

Harking back to fiction again.... remember Humphrey the Humbug Hawksley's "Dragon Phyrrr"? We launch a wee conventional Agni-I at a missile base near Chongquing while their Premier was on the phone with the POTUS. The Premier "yelps" when he hears the news, leaves the line open and reflexively orders the nuke strike on Mumbai.

AFAIK the Chicomms wont be able to say right away if the Agni we just launched was a conventional Agni aimed at Golmud or an Agni-III with a 200kT aimed at Zhongnanhai.... not until missile re-entry. One should assume an immediate and panicked response?

PS: IIRC there was a discussion here on mating of nukes with cruise missiles (and publicly announcing it). I dunno if it was in the Indo-Pak context or the Sino-Indo context.

[Misraji]

..SNIP...
CMs tipped with nuclear warhead could have taken out delhi as good as a DF21c.
India has a declared second strike policy which I assume given our dharmic pretensions means launch on impact, not launch on detect.
...SNIP...
restraint cannot be a one way street.

If I were a Mango Indian who would call for restraint, BR Military forum would hardly be the place for me ...

Just that as Vivek Saar said, this thing is spiraling out of control with neither side backing down.
In that sense, BM attacks signify another phase of the campaign.
We have finished with one set of weapons, lets move on the next level ...

even if the local 2nd arty bosses get apeshit insane at the tamacha, he still needs PAL launch code from beijing else he will be shot like a dog and his body parts sold to soup kitchens as will all of his family and relatives. gen Liu will need to convince Chairman Peng who will need some consensus from a few top leaders how Cheen should respond now. as I said the next meeting in great hall will be epic for the rage levels

Singha Saar, if there any Wong reading your posts, he would be breaking into cold sweat right now ...

--Ashish

[Singha]

why should cheen get into a panicked response at all of *3* indian missiles coming over the horizon.

they know very well they have more IRBM and ICBM than us, more air delivered warheads and more cruise missiles with n-warheads(the remaining CJ10s and so on). they can wait for impact to study such small attacks or atleast let their sensors read which target area its heading toward. they also have old but powerful 1 MT sized bombs on the old silo ICBMs if anyone noticed.

TSP might get into panic under "use it or lose it" but not Cheen, not with 3 missiles.

[RamaY]

It is interesting to note that how we Indians think that India should never be the one to escalate the war, under no circumstances. The benefit of doubt is always given to the enemy and it is the enemy who has a "right" and "means" to escalate a war.

When a nation has the weapons and means of delivery that can inflict maximum pain on their opponents, they are used sooner than later in real war scenarios. There is no logical way to say nuclear weapons can/will not be used until x-number of days of the war.

Reminds me the story of Karna and his sakti weapon. He was forced to use it as soon as the threat perception (need not be the reality nor the final stage of war) reached a perceived red line.

[chaanakya]

An Agni strike is quite an escalation!!!

That is not escalation. They had twice launched Missiles , first to eliminate leadership and then on civilian population besides Military targets. This shows the intention that we would not hesitate if they escalate. Golmund is not much of a target which could represent escalation . This marks a setback for china not something which would force them to think about backing off .it is just a hint. Yes Chengdu could have been a different ball game and would have represented tit for tat. Three missiles,. I am slightly disappointed.. We need to target their identified missiles silos at some point of time...

[rajanb]

Vivekji,

I will not comment on your scenarios for the following four reasons:

a) Not to waste your time
b) you have an ardent fan and "yeh dill maange more"
c) In all humility, I am not an expert in these matters, because I have spent my life ascending from being a hindu refugee, whiose family was attacked brutally, but survived by God's grace (if I said Allah's grace it would irk the paki/cheeni lurkers even more and deprive them of their 72 houris. More piskological than a friend called Shiv! ) From Pakistan to a life of self respect
d) And having worked with MNCs in Asia Pacific, I used to make the mainland chinese in my company, shiver when I walked by Result of '62!

Send us more!
As always wish you the best for you and family!

And if I can, at my retired senior citizen age, assist you in your writing endeavours, you can contavt me a rajan underscore bhavnani at the hottest mail.com

[V_Raman]

I think the goal is to make China feel that Tibet is lost while sinking their shipping lines. This will make them climb down the escalation ladder.

[sarabpal.s]

Imho hitting golmund (military airbase) can clear the doubt in comm. mind that what could happen in future if they further escalate there pressure by employing Nuclear or conventional attack on civilian.message is clear we can hit and hit hard where we want only restriction is India himself

[Bala Vignesh]

I don't know why people are so surprised by the Agni strike. Dr. Kalam, in Wings of Fire, explicitly states that conventional strike is part of Agni's mission.

The surprise is the use of Agni all together, at least for me..

I think that India has a No First Use policy against non-nuclear nations onlee. Nuclear weapons can also be used to retaliate against a biological or chemical attack.
Is CEP of Agni 1 low enough for it's use in carrying conventional warheads at it's full range ?

Jamwal mian, this link puts the CEP at 25m for a 860km range. Don't know how true that info is.

That is not escalation. They had twice launched Missiles , first to eliminate leadership and then on civilian population besides Military targets. This shows the intention that we would not hesitate if they escalate. Golmund is not much of a target which could represent escalation . This marks a setback for china not something which would force them to think about backing off .it is just a hint. Yes Chengdu could have been a different ball game and would have represented tit for tat. Three missiles,. I am slightly disappointed.. We need to target their identified missiles silos at some point of time...

Chaanakyaji,
The missiles launched so far by chinese through out the scenario were cruise missiles. They haven't moved to Ballistic missiles yet.. And if I am correct across the world launch of anything more than a TBM is considered as escalation of hostility, irrespective of the target.

[chaanakya]

Dear Balaji
Please read first few pages again. War was officially commenced with China Launching about 147 GLCM from Tibet area which included Military Div HQs and Airbases and of Course Delhi. PM and DM along with others were evacuated. And India has launched a total of three BMs without which India cant hit targets deep in China. China can afford to start the war by launching cruise missiles. I say that is a radical escalation esp when target is Delhi. the reply should have been more drastic but saner minds prevailed. After 9 days of war China gets hint that India can launch Nuclear tipped Missile even though it chooses to use conventional one. The least I expect India to do is to pulverise Chengdu. And yes if it represents escalation then so be it.

[vivek_ahuja]

DAY 9 + 1030 HRS (L)

WUGONG AIRBASE
CENTRAL CHINA

Three H-6 tankers lifted off in quick succession of the concrete tarmac and into the cloudy morning skies above. As their undercarriage retracted, the lead aircraft pilot rotated his controls and the aircraft banked gently, turning to the south and then the southwest. It was followed by the two other aircraft and the flight of three climbed to altitude above the white clouds until there was nothing but bright sunlight above a floor of white clouds below them. Once there, the co-pilot noted and then pointed out to the Lt-Colonel piloting the lead tanker as a flight of seven J-11s broke above the cloud cover as well and headed a few kilometers ahead of them. All seven aircraft were armed with long range air-to-air missiles as the accompanied the tankers over the Tibetan plateau…


DAY 9 + 1040 HRS (L)

THE JUNWEI-KONG-JUN
STRATEGIC OPERATIONS CENTER
BEIJING

“I don’t care if you cannot raise them on the radios or the phones! Get some people on the ground there if you have to!” Feng slammed the phone down and then stood there, his arm quivering with rage as his palm crushed the phone. He turned around to see Lt-General Chen walk into the room as the latter returned salutes from several mid-grade staff officers. The General’s orderly took his uniform overcoat and peak-cap and left the room. Chen walked over Feng as the latter brought his rage under control.

“What’s the situation at Golmud, Feng?” Chen asked after waiting for his subordinate to retain his composure.

“Not good. We cannot raise anybody over there on the comms. No radio, no telephone, no nothing. The local army garrison commander was the only officer senior enough nearby who called his army command to report on nuclear detonation clouds over the airbase which he could see from his office windows a dozen kilometers away from the base! The PLA operations center for Tibet called us to confirm that and I told them there was no such event recorded on our sensors. That foolish garrison commander probably saw mushroom clouds and assumed the worst. I told the PLA commander to respectfully put that garrison commander in contact with me. I just got off the phone with him,” Feng said as they both walked out of the conference room with its soundproof glassing and into the main control center. The latter was lined with rows upon rows of communications gear. The room was also occupied with more than two dozen air-force officers as they controlled the massive scale strategic operations of the PLAAF…

The moment the two men walked out, the air filled with the chaotic cacophony of an air-force headquarters attempting to regain control of a fast deteriorating situation.
Normally, Feng and Chen would be at their Lanzhou MRAF command center controlling the curious mix of tactical and strategic operations that such large area commands entailed. However, given the current state of affairs, Chen found that Feng was wearing more than one hat at the moment as he attempted control of the skies above southern Tibet as well as advise Chen and General Wencang on more strategic matters.

Of course, it helps now that those two aspects have merged into one…Chen thought. He looked at the large screen showing ten aircraft entering northern Tibet from the northeast.

“What’s that tactical situation over southern Tibet? Who’s got operational control?”
“That’s what I am trying to find out right now. 26TH Division headquarters says they have lost all contact with the 76TH Airborne Command and Control Regiment headquarters,” Feng noted as he crossed his arms.

“That’s not surprising, is it? They were based in with the Golmud base ops center. What about our aerial presence over Tibet right now?”

“I have ordered tankers to meet up with the J-11s over Golmud to refuel them and keep them on station with the last remaining KJ-2000 until we can get reinforcements in there. We…” Feng sighed and ran his hands over the last remaining hairs on his head, “…lost several special mission aircraft at Golmud along with a few fighters and most importantly: I cannot raise 821 Brigade Detachment at Golmud at all.”

Chen frowned at that and rubbed his tired eyes with his fingers. A few long seconds later he turned to face Feng:
“Get me General Wencang right away. Its better he hears this before General Liu breaks through his office door demanding an explanation,” Chen said. Feng pointed him to a phone and he walked over and picked it up.

“This is Lt-General Chen. Get me General Wencang right now.”
A few seconds of silence later, Chen livened up:

“Chen here. You are not going to like this at all. I…” Chen was cut mid-sentence as Wencang took over the conversation. All Feng could hear were some distant voice on the phone and Chen as he raised his eyebrows in surprise as he heard Wencang talk. Several seconds later Chen got off the phone and looked at Feng as he put down the speaker.

“So it looks like General Liu will not be breaking down Wencang’s door after all.”
“Indeed? And why is that?” Feng asked.

“Because Wencang just told me that on General Liu’s advice, Chairman Peng has ordered all CMC members to move to the 2ND Artillery Corps underground wartime operations center outside of Beijing…”