India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

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negi
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by negi »

GeorgeWelch wrote: Apparently they reached enough of an agreement to consider the F-16 and SH.
I think they never reached that stage itself; CISMOA was only brought up after the decision to purchase C-17 was made the former did not even make through the initial screening.

The USA has already missed the bus as far as IAF is concerned for with MRCA, PAKFA and indigenous projects showing promise it won't be too far fetched to say that PAKFA and it' two seat derivate will be the last phoren figther AC IAF will buy , at most there might be incremental orders for the existing inventory but I simply don't see why would IAF need a JSF when it has committed itself to PAKFA.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Taygibay »

@ Cosmo_R ^^^

Nice post, I like the AC choice that
reading its filigrane implies. :D

Good day all, Tay.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by GeorgeWelch »

Philip wrote:
Washington intends to buy 2,443, at a price tag of $382 billion.
Let's do some quick math

20 billion / 126 = $158 million / aircraft
382 billion / 2443 = $156 million / aircraft

So for all your doom and gloom about the F-35 price tag, you're spending even more on a last generation fighter :rotfl:
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by koti »

.
GeorgeWelch wrote:
Let's do some quick math

20 billion / 126 = $158 million / aircraft
382 billion / 2443 = $156 million
/ aircraft

So for all your doom and gloom about the F-35 price tag, you're spending even more on a last generation fighter :rotfl:
You are mixing up operational costs with acquisition costs.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Taygibay »

Washington intends to buy 2,443, at a price tag of $382 billion.
But a trillion with dev and sustainment cost whereas India has added the support
through expected life!
Since dev cost are either included or accounted in the MMRCA's price bids it should be :
1000 billions/2443 = 409 millions / aircraft
and
20 billion / 126 = $158 million / aircraft???

OUCH!
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by GeorgeWelch »

koti wrote:.
GeorgeWelch wrote:
Let's do some quick math

20 billion / 126 = $158 million / aircraft
382 billion / 2443 = $156 million
/ aircraft

So for all your doom and gloom about the F-35 price tag, you're spending even more on a last generation fighter :rotfl:
You are mixing up operational costs with acquisition costs.
Nope

Both figures are acquisition including a certain number of spares.

Neither figure includes fuel, pilot pay, maintenance pay, etc.

edit: the India figure may include slightly more spares and high-level tech support (it certainly doesn't cover daily maintenance costs), but the US figure includes the entire development cost which India isn't going to have to pay. On the other hand the US built/maintained a lot of expertise and skill going through the development process that India won't gain either, no matter how much ToT you're given.
Last edited by GeorgeWelch on 09 Nov 2011 22:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by GeorgeWelch »

Taygibay wrote:But a trillion with dev and sustainment cost whereas India has added the support
Most of that trillion is fuel to fly the planes

I can assure you that the $20 billion figure for India does not include fuel.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by rajanb »

^ guys it doesn't work that way. (Now that the JSF has been flown off to another thread, I can stop lurking)

It would have been broken down into the following which a bean counter (finance guy) would include:

a) Fly-away Costs
b) Initially to ramp up induction and also to impart training leading to the various phases of ToT: SKD, CKD costs
c) Training costs for all personnel for manufacturing, quality checking and operational duties etc.
d) Costs of Capital goods for various factory related items to be able to produce ---> assemble -----> manufacture----> Test components/assemblies/full product.
e) Costs of certain components which cannot be manufactured locally because of lack of infra/higher costs due to lower volumes.
f) Annual Maintenance costs which will be calculated as proportional to the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) of components and their estimated periodicity of replacement.
g) Guarantee of serviceability by ensuring the availability of components in e) above over the life cycle of the a/c.
h) Costs of upgrades and replacement thereof, which have been demonstrated during the technical evaluation (like AESA, imporovements to Spectra for e.g)
i) Costs of the 50% plowback into India as a contractual requirement.(if such costs are applicable)
j) Costs of guarantees

There maybe many more items like simulators etc.

The flyaway cost of an aircraft is actually a poor indicator. the MoD has to ensure that there are not hidden costs.

For e.g: I might say that I have an a/c at a flyaway cost for $65M (say a 5th gen A/C :wink: ), but the annual maintenance costs of each may be 40%.

Or the cost of my 4th gen is $75M, but the annual maintenance cost is 15%.

So the exercise of normalising the Tiffy and the Raffy costs so we are comparing apples to apples is a very important exercise for the bean counters in MoD and MoF to accomplish faithfully and accurately. Hopefully we have the MoF bean counters involved because i) It will save precious time and they would understand also the technical nuances of the purchase; and ii) It shouldn't be like the tanker deal where the MoF shot down the preferred IAF choice on costs.

Also, both the contenders would have to see the calculations our chaps make, initially only of their own calculations and point out any lacunae if it exists due to wrong assumptions. If our bean counters forget to add or project lower costs, the manufacturer may not point out the additional cost omitted, because they want the order. This additional omitted cost cannot be claimed later as the manufacturers would have agreed to our calculations. If our bean counters have inadverdently assumed costs in excess, the manufacturer can point that out, justify and reduce it.

When the final selection is made there maybe two scenarios:

One is we ask the manufactures to rework the finances as per our format and give us the best possible price! :mrgreen:

The second is to announce the winner and show the loser why they lost out financially, not by sharing the details, because that would be now under the purview of the secrets act and relate to showing them config, abilities, reconfig for Indian role etc., but to announce the total and the costs of a few major heads, sufficient to ensure there is no doubt on the integrity of the selection process and the financial calculations.

In either case the second will happen and one maybe omitted. :((

There will still be rumblings from the loser. It is an imperfect world after all.

Been there, seen it and enjoyed!

Cheers
Last edited by rajanb on 09 Nov 2011 23:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by rajanb »

George, you obviously are ignorant of how things work around here.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by arthuro »

It would have been broken down into the following which a bean counter (finance guy) would include:

a) Fly-away Costs
b) Initially to ramp up induction and also to impart training leading to the various phases of ToT: SKD, CKD costs
c) Training costs for all personnel for manufacturing, quality checking and operational duties etc.
d) Costs of Capital goods for various factory related items to be able to produce ---> assemble -----> manufacture----> Test components/assemblies/full product.
e) Costs of certain components which cannot be manufactured locally because of lack of infra/higher costs due to lower volumes.
f) Annual Maintenance costs which will be calculated as proportional to the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) of components and their estimated periodicity of replacement.
g) Guarantee of serviceability by ensuring the availability of components in e) above over the life cycle of the a/c.
h) Costs of upgrades and replacement thereof, which have been demonstrated during the technical evaluation (like AESA, imporovements to Spectra for e.g)
i) Costs of the 50% plowback into India as a contractual requirement.(if such costs are applicable)
j) Costs of guarantees

There maybe many more items like simulators etc.

The flyaway cost of an aircraft is actually a poor indicator. the MoD has to ensure that there are not hidden costs.

For e.g: I might say that I have an a/c at a flyaway cost for $65M (say a 5th gen A/C ), but the annual maintenance costs of each may be 40%.

Or the cost of my 4th gen is $75M, but the annual maintenance cost is 15%.

So the exercise of normalising the Tiffy and the Raffy costs so we are comparing apples to apples is a very important exercise for the bean counters in MoD and MoF to accomplish faithfully and accurately. Hopefully we have the MoF bean counters involved because i) It will save precious time and they would understand also the technical nuances of the purchase; and ii) It shouldn't be like the tanker deal where the MoF shot down the preferred IAF choice on costs.

Also, both the contenders would have to see the calculations our chaps make, initially only of their own calculations and point out any lacunae if it exists due to wrong assumptions. If our bean counters forget to add or project lower costs, the manufacturer may not point out the additional cost omitted, because they want the order. This additional omitted cost cannot be claimed later as the manufacturers would have agreed to our calculations. If our bean counters have inadverdently assumed costs in excess, the manufacturer can point that out, justify and reduce it.

When the final selection is made there maybe two scenarios:

One is we ask the manufactures to rework the finances as per our format and give us the best possible price!

The second is to announce the winner and show the loser why they lost out financially, not by sharing the details, because that would be now under the purview of the secrets act and relate to showing them config, abilities, reconfig for Indian role etc., but to announce the total and the costs of a few major heads, sufficient to ensure there is no doubt on the integrity of the selection process and the financial calculations.
Exellent post. I would add that the sustainability of the offer must be checked. to be sure that there is no dumping on prices.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by rajanb »

@Arthuro The sustainability of the contract in view of dumping prices and maybe, therefore making the deal untenable, in the case of a Defence Purchase would be as per norms, by a guarantee from the Government of France for thr Raffy. And since the UK has bid the Tiffy from the UK Govt.

Now in the case of the Tiffy, since there is a consortium and the UK is the lead bidder, the UK would have back to back agreements with other Govts./manufacturers in the consortium mix.

Cheers

The contract for purchase on our side would be signed on behalf of the President of India.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Taygibay »

Thnx for the complete inside, Rajanb! :)
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Victor »

IAF has definitely fallen into a tight corner because of the meltdown in Europe. The problem is not going to go away but will likely get much worse. Piddly little Greece which makes up 2% of the EU basket caused so much grief when it threatened bankruptcy, I shudder to think what will happen when a major pillar like Italy does the same. Frighteningly, it is poised on the brink but considered "too big to bail out". For the first time, the breakup of the EU is a real possibility and I would like to believe that the IAF and Delhi recognize the possibility and are prepared to take appropriate action.

The likelihood is that given a choice between maintaining pensions and benefits on one hand and maintaining expensive fighter programs that they don't need on the other, they will choose pensions and benefits. This can have a catastrophic effect on the MMRCA project because neither the Rafale nor the Typhoon are finished products as-is per IAF requirements. Any pressure (or blackmail) on India to pick up further development costs will take huge bites out of our domestic projects and seriously jeopardize our capabilities.

One option is to dispense with a production line in India and buy the Rafale off the shelf. Besides making the French very happy, this will give us the jets immediately and cut a large chunk off our costs right off the bat, maybe by half. God knows HAL already has enough experience in license manufacturing foreign designs over 60 years. The money saved should be ploughed into the Kaveri, FGFA and AMCA projects as those are the ones that will give us the most bang for the buck in terms of domestic jet building capability. I chose Rafale because in the worst case of a European disintegration, the French can be expected to repulse the evil Americans the longest before they capitulate and adopt the F-35. The others will do so immediately.

Another option is to get 80 or so upgraded M2Ks from Greece, UAE etc along with a couple of AESA equipped Shornet squadrons. It would help if we also got 2 JSF squadrons off the shelf just for CYA purposes in case the FGFA/AMCA projects get delayed. After seeing 4.5 Gen and 5th Gen projects from the richest, most advanced countries become so expensive and behind schedule, I have no reason to expect that we will do better with our track record. We are not advanced or rich and we are not china, but we should be careful.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Rishirishi »

A few points to think about.

1 No other country has decided to purchase EF or Rafael, if they had the choice of JSF. Even Britain has ordered the plane.
2 Development cost is a major part of any fighter programme. the more AC the less development per plane.
3 Improvements cost is also dependent on numbers.

who has purchased EF or Rafeal accept the manufacturing countries?
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by SaiK »

nice post rajanb.. wondering how are they going to take a weighted average among all the cost factors? for example cost of guarantees may be more with Rf than Ef, but cost of AESA upgrades may not. OR, let us say training cost with Ef2K, they say : will do it free, then do you consider that?
What if that exceeds cost of guarantee?
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Cosmo_R »

Victor wrote:IAF has definitely fallen into a tight corner because of the meltdown in Europe....

The likelihood is that given a choice between maintaining pensions and benefits on one hand and maintaining expensive fighter programs that they don't need on the other, they will choose pensions and benefits. This can have a catastrophic effect on the MMRCA project because neither the Rafale nor the Typhoon are finished products as-is per IAF requirements. Any pressure (or blackmail) on India to pick up further development costs will take huge bites out of our domestic projects and seriously jeopardize our capabilities.

One option is to dispense with a production line in India and buy the Rafale off the shelf. Besides making the French very happy, this will give us the jets immediately and cut a large chunk off our costs right off the bat, maybe by half. God knows HAL already has enough experience in license manufacturing foreign designs over 60 years. The money saved should be ploughed into the Kaveri, FGFA and AMCA projects as those are the ones that will give us the most bang for the buck in terms of domestic jet building capability. I chose Rafale because in the worst case of a European disintegration, the French can be expected to repulse the evil Americans the longest before they capitulate and adopt the F-35. The others will do so immediately.

Another option is to get 80 or so upgraded M2Ks from Greece, UAE etc along with a couple of AESA equipped Shornet squadrons. It would help if we also got 2 JSF squadrons off the shelf just for CYA purposes in case the FGFA/AMCA projects get delayed. After seeing 4.5 Gen and 5th Gen projects from the richest, most advanced countries become so expensive and behind schedule, I have no reason to expect that we will do better with our track record. We are not advanced or rich and we are not china, but we should be careful.
Well, I think this is what LM was suggesting with its "F-16 is the pathway to the JSF": In effect, buy the F-16 now, we'll upgrade you to JSF through a 'trade-in' later.

Victor, you have put it succinctly: when the MMRCA bids were tendered no one had any clue about Europe's problem impacting the procurement. Plus, the first part of the process only factored in technical issues--a wise move at the time. Now, one must factor in Europe's staying power. Sarkozy et al will try hard to maintain a robust military until the crisis rolls over France and then as you said, they will choose butter over guns.

HAL has its hands full with the LCA, MKI, FGFA and AMCA. An off the shelf purchase with a 50% offset investment in private Indian defense companies gets it here faster and cheaper. IMVHO, the critical technology to master is engines and interestingly, the funding for F-136 engine for the JSF by GE/RR will be/has been cut off. Man! I'd like for it to be the technology basis for the AMCA/FGFA.

JMT
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by SaiK »

when you guys say europe meltdown, are you focusing just on greece issue? or even a aaa- rating for france or italy should not be a problem here for IAF. france especially is sitting better in the sense, of parts supply vs. distributed EADS.

masans went to AAA- from AAA rating.. melt down for IAF's order for apache helos?

Now, the problems Fr faces could be same as EADS faces in terms of parts supplies as well.

The risk is =.=.=
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Rishirishi »

Greece, Spain, Italy were amongst the largest partneres/expected purchasers of the EF. Greece certainly does not have the cash to purchase any AC. Italy and Spain are both in very very bad shape.

France is also in a bad shape and will have to make cuts. Britain is slightly better, but also they have made painful cuts in welfare spendings.

So who are left?
The scandinavian countries Norway, Denmark, Holland and Austria are in good shape but will be purchasing the JSF.

Another great issue is that there are no natural enemies left for europe. Russia is in no shape to wage war. Nato has become even stronger with Poland, Baltics, czech republic, Slovania, Rumania etc also joining in.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Cosmo_R »

SaiK wrote:when you guys say europe meltdown, are you focusing just on greece issue? or even a aaa- rating for france or italy should not be a problem here for IAF. france especially is sitting better in the sense, of parts supply vs. distributed EADS.

masans went to AAA- from AAA rating.. melt down for IAF's order for apache helos?

Now, the problems Fr faces could be same as EADS faces in terms of parts supplies as well.

The risk is =.=.=
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/busin ... nk.html?hp
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by SaiK »

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Eur ... act-05674/

19.5% Italy (121). Alenia Aeronautica: Left wing, outboard flaperons, rear fuselage sections


So, technically, our local companies can replace Italy, unless the above is so complex to do with out italy. Now, that would be only if Italy says that they are out of the partnership, which I doubt under any influence.

And, this is a problem for the first 18 only correct? the rest are anyway going to be slowly done from desh. I am sure, we can get the wings, flaperons and fuselage techs in a jiffy with LCA experience. We need to know what is so different in EADS than what we have already known about these technology.

of course, the point is moot, if Rf is chosen.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Cosmo_R »

SaiK wrote:http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Eur ... act-05674/

19.5% Italy (121). Alenia Aeronautica: Left wing, outboard flaperons, rear fuselage sections


So, technically, our local companies can replace Italy, unless the above is so complex to do with out italy. Now, that would be only if Italy says that they are out of the partnership, which I doubt under any influence.

And, this is a problem for the first 18 only correct? the rest are anyway going to be slowly done from desh. I am sure, we can get the wings, flaperons and fuselage techs in a jiffy with LCA experience. We need to know what is so different in EADS than what we have already known about these technology.

of course, the point is moot, if Rf is chosen.
Volumes/unit cost/R&D?
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by SaiK »

all under ToT?
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Cosmo_R »

Either way. Europeans cutting back means low/high/zero
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by SaiK »

Let us list all the ways if Italy or France economy breaks down, how will it effect MMRCA deal now?
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Philip »

And now welcome our "Hangar Queen",the JSF!

Bharat Karnad writing in the Deccan Chronicle has this scathing indictment of the US peddling,one should really say,pimping its "Death Rattler","Mad Hatter" and now "Hangar Queen" that as Rand says,"can't (out) turn,(out) climb,and (out) run" its 4+ gen opponents and now that expert Wheeler says is “appallingly unmaneuverable” !

His viewpoint echoes what we have been saying on BR for some time now.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/columnis ... ngar-queen
Why is US peddling a hangar queen?
November 10, 2011 a a a Shareemail print

A multi-role combat aircraft is one of those things air forces the world over love for no good reason other than the desire to fly a plane that can do everything. Some 30 years ago, when the Indian Air Force selected the Jaguar as an MRCA (Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) when plainly it was only a low level short range strike plane, I had pointed out that the trouble with aircraft designed for multiple missions is that they cannot perform any particular role very well. Nothing has changed, except now “medium range” is added to the Air Staff Quality Requirements, two planes have been shortlisted, and the US is trying to scramble the competition by offering the Lockheed Martin Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) F-35 Lightning-II just as the bids by Dassault Avions for its Rafale fighter and by the European consortium EADS for its Typhoon warplane were being opened. This offer, while sudden, was not entirely unexpected, and has a whiff of the spoiler even though there’s a more substantive reason behind it. In any event, if aircraft quality and performance is what matters, scrutinising the JSF makes sense.

JSF can, at best, be considered a work in progress, and at worst an enormously expensive failure, that has already racked up 89 per cent cost-over-run and time delays of several years, with no end in sight to major design and technology problems confronting it. Winslow Wheeler, a combat aviation expert formerly with the US’ government accountability office (GAO) and ex-staff adviser to several US senators, deems this aircraft “a bad idea that shows every sign of turning into a disaster as big as the F-111 fiasco of the 1960s.”

The serious nature of F-35’s troubles is not a secret. According to news reports, the Pentagon’s director of operational test & evaluation earlier this year pointed to a raft of problems afflicting the JSF, among them, the “transonic wing roll-off (and) greater than expected sideslip during medium angle of attack testing”, unreliability of the components, the after-burner on the Pratt & Whitney F-135 engine disrupting the air flow causing severe vibrations and preventing realisation of maximum power, helmet-mounted display that has restricted testing to the preliminary Block 0.5 and Block 1 mission systems software, and the inability of the on-board inert gas generation system to obviate the buildup of oxygen in fuel tank that can result in fire and explosion. A news story additionally revealed significant structural weakness in the “forward root rib” providing “core strength of the wings”, and a recent GAO report referred to the faulty manufacturing of the outer mould of the aircraft that has undermined its stealth characteristics, rectifying which, it said, has major cost and time impacts.

JSF, it turns out, is an over-weight (49,500 pounds at takeoff in air-to-air role), under-powered (with an engine rated at 42,000 pounds of thrust) aircraft with a relatively small wing span (460 square feet), rendering it, in Wheeler’s words, “appallingly unmaneuverable” and in the same league as the short-lived F-105. Worse, it has only two tons of ordnance carrying capacity in its internal bays; loading additional bombs and weapons on outer wing stations will light up the aircraft like a Christmas tree on enemy radar, making nonsense of its vaunted stealth qualities. And in ground support mission, it is seen as a “non-starter” — “too fast to independently identify targets, too fragile to withstand ground fire”, and too lacking in payload capacity, including fuel, to pull useful loiter time over battlefield. The crux of the problem, according to Wheeler, is that the JSF “has mortgaged its success on a hypothetical vision of ultra long-range (air-to-air) radar… that has fallen on its face many times in real war”, eventuating in performance that is “embarrassing in the air-to-air role” even when compared to “elderly” A-10.

But that’s not the half of it! The F-35, when it enters service, will be the least test-proven of any new aircraft. In this regard, the GAO report mentions that “Open air testing (is) constrained by range limitations that are incapable of providing realistic testing of many key (Block 3 systems software-driven) capabilities” that are available, but mostly on paper. What this means, according to Wheeler, is that 97 per cent of “flight testing (is) still unflown” and eventually only 17 per cent of JSF’s flight characteristics will be physically tested and proven. Dismayed as much by the sub-standard aircraft in the offing and the escalating costs as by the unwillingness of the US to share “critical technologies”, many of the Nato partners have reduced their requirement of this aircraft. Britain, for instance, has cut back to 40 F-35s from its initial order of 138 aircraft, and Israel, which contracted for 20 JSFs, is seeking refurbished F-16s and F-18s instead, as a near and middle-term solution.

The F-35 has been pushed into a virtual death spiral also by the seemingly insurmountable difficulties facing its vertical take-off variant, compelling the Royal Navy to junk it. Costly attempts to rectify design flaws and to meet performance criteria amidst slashed domestic and foreign sales have raised the programme expenditure to the one-trillion-dollar level and the unit price of this platform to a “catastrophically high” $200 million, leading the US Congress to threaten a cut-off in funding.

It is the imperative to save the JSF programme that has prompted US to offer this plane to IAF. Delhi has to decide which combat aircraft industry it will play the white knight to. Lockheed will flourish even if India rejects the F-35. But failure to sell Rafale or the Eurofighter will respectively put the survival of future combat aircraft development and production in France

The writer is a professor at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi
PS:But then GW knows best and that Karnad and those he's quoted are habitual liars!
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by SaiK »

Philip: We do have a JSF thread.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Philip »

True,but this piece by BK is in the context of the JSF being offered as a substitue for the two MMRCA contenders.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Singha »

I curse the day this thread got derailed by this JSF thing. all learning has ceased since then.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by anishns »

^^ +1

whats the point in creating a separate thread if you are going to X-post every post :roll:
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by rajanb »

SaiK wrote:nice post rajanb.. wondering how are they going to take a weighted average among all the cost factors? for example cost of guarantees may be more with Rf than Ef, but cost of AESA upgrades may not. OR, let us say training cost with Ef2K, they say : will do it free, then do you consider that?
What if that exceeds cost of guarantee?
Saikji. There will not be a weighted cost per line item. For e.g: the training cost is zero, so be it. If the cost of guarantees is implicit in the purchase, then great.

If we believe the news that fly away costs of the Raffy is surprisingly only 5% less than Tiffy, then two scenarios emerge.
a) Have the prices for the Tiffy been dropped substansially?
OR
b) Have some of the recurring costs been slapped into the Raffy's fly away costs and spread over other items which the IAF would need to buy? And correspondingly other costs have been reduced somewhere else? All possible.

Moving costs around under various heads is just creative finance and sales strategy! As long as the profit margin remains the targeted one that the seller has in mind.

Some line items, as you rightly pointed out maybe "free". :wink: We have to remember that there is nothing like a free lunch.
The term "free", thrown into pricing is to engineer satisfaction with the buyer and give the competitor taqleef!

It is all about perception and the fact that the financials are presented in such a way so as to win the order. And to give the competition taqleef!

Creative finance is a difficult art and subject to various strategies dependent on the characteristics of the product. In a ToT situation, even more so, because you cannot assume that the IAF would buy a particualar component during the life cycle since, say 2 years down the road, IAF says "We have manufactured a local substitute and so we do not need to buy anymore." Or a third party vendors product, at a cheaper price could be substituted!

Fun & Games it is! I would expect that L1 would win.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by rajanb »

Singha wrote:I curse the day this thread got derailed by this JSF thing. all learning has ceased since then.
+500% The musharraf way!
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by SaiK »

I hope they don't split the order now between these two euro giants owing to various econo-political factors.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by rajanb »

SaiK wrote:I hope they don't split the order now between these two euro giants owing to various econo-political factors.
The plus point would be our exposure to different design concepts and tech.

The downside:

ToT: The need to have two lines, different capital goods, sourcing production training and methodologies etc.

Logistics: Would be a nughtmare keeping two tech advanced birds running, spares, gorund staff etc. etc.

WE would be hard pressed to be able to cater to both. And this approach would lead to time delays which I think we cannot afford with our depleting force levels.

I think, the chances of a split order are very remote.

Cheers
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by nash »

I hope they don't split the order now between these two euro giants owing to various econo-political factors.


Yes 126+126, would be an awesome combo for IAF, but with these assets their liabilities also comes, a logistic nightmare...
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by rajanb »

nash wrote:
I hope they don't split the order now between these two euro giants owing to various econo-political factors.


Yes 126+126, would be an awesome combo for IAF, but with these assets their liabilities also comes, a logistic nightmare...
The question also to ask, is that with both a/c, would the overlap in capabilities be so small that they would be complementary. if so, would then costs and taqleef justify it. But if the overlap is large and we have other arrows in our quiver, like the SU-30, M2K and JAG, why take the taqleef?

Spend the money on increasing our air defence systems instead?
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by SaiK »

I agree.. unless there is a 50% commonalities between these two platform, it is no use or a logistic nightmare.. If Kaveri++, mission computing, composite skins and some common sensors, radar and weapons package could constitute the 50% LRUs, then we can think about it.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by nash »

SaiK wrote:I agree.. unless there is a 50% commonalities between these two platform, it is no use or a logistic nightmare.. If Kaveri++, mission computing, composite skins and some common sensors, radar and weapons package could constitute the 50% LRUs, then we can think about it.
Here GoI can play wisely if they ask both the competitor that we can split the order say 108+108 or whatever, if you guies can make us sure about 50% commonality...i assume both(UK,German and France) will be happy to work it out because indirectly they get the business of 200+ fighter.

Engine may not be possible for now but weapon(meteor), composites, mission computer(Indigenious),MFD(samtel & thales) and some other things like this can be work out for us.
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Singha »

whichever e-canard we select just get 126 and devote more funding such that Tejas mk1 is also == 126 and replaces the Bisons on a 1:1 basis.

tejas mk1 would hence fullfill its original role of Mig21 replacement 1:1 by 2018
MRCA will take care of impending retirement of Mig27 and older half of Jaguar fleet by 2025 - around 150 units
MKI will have it own niche and continue to add in numbers until 270
tejas mk2 can be seen as replacement for Mig29 and M2K as it will have full spectrum of capability - we need 150 atleast
PAKFA will supplement and eventually replace the MKI as heavy fighter - 150-200
AMCA (mashallah) will bring stealth strike into the game and replace Tejas mk1 first (I hope) around 2025-30 - 300+
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Cain Marko »

^^ sounds good wonlee, now where are those damned AF/MOD planners?
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Re: India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Par

Post by Pratyush »

Singha wrote:whichever e-canard we select just get 126 and devote more funding such that Tejas mk1 is also == 126 and replaces the Bisons on a 1:1 basis.

tejas mk1 would hence fullfill its original role of Mig21 replacement 1:1 by 2018
MRCA will take care of impending retirement of Mig27 and older half of Jaguar fleet by 2025 - around 150 units
MKI will have it own niche and continue to add in numbers until 270
tejas mk2 can be seen as replacement for Mig29 and M2K as it will have full spectrum of capability - we need 150 atleast
PAKFA will supplement and eventually replace the MKI as heavy fighter - 150-200
AMCA (mashallah) will bring stealth strike into the game and replace Tejas mk1 first (I hope) around 2025-30 - 300+
Singh Ji,

It is the second time today that I am accusing you of being an optimist when it comes to Indian planning. No way the IAF will ask the HAL to keep on building the additional Tejas, without the MK 2 modification. That it self will be completed by 2016.
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