Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): June 30, 2011

[Kamboja]

There is an element of timing and constraints that is important and, perhaps, is not factoring into the discussion of Unkil's attitude to TSPA.

We are asking the questions: If Unkil is really so strong, how come they have never 'turned the screws' on TSP? OTOH they have showered largesse and arms on TSP over the decades -- should that be interpreted as jiziya, protection money, or steroids to pump up TSP against India, or all the above?

I want to point out what (I think) Suppiah did above -- The question 'if Unkil is so strong how come they haven't hammered TSP' is flawed for two reasons IMO: first, because TSP never gave the Yanquis a reason to hammer TSP until after 9/11. Before 9/11, TSP had been a sometimes ally; it was only after 9/11 that they actually started to work directly against US interests and thus justify a hammering. More importantly it is only in the past couple of years that Unkil has woken up to the depth of this betrayal. Now that the US is finally, belatedly realizing the extent to which TSP is against them, we are witnessing the true beginnings of the 'turning of the screws' -- think about all that has happened since Obama became President? More drone strikes in his first year than in all of Bush's presidency; Geronimo; G N Fai; evidence of ISI duplicity being exposed at every turn; an all-out media assault on the TSP name; contrast this with the situation in 2001-2008, when all the headlines were about AQ, Iraq, Afg -- Pakistan didn't even feature. At least to me, it is clear that the US war machine has finally identified its true target and is slowly gearing up to face TSP. I think in future years we will see 2010-2015 as a pivotal time when the US did indeed hammer the Pakis, but that has only just begun.

Second, TSP does indeed have Unkil by the balls so long as thousands of US troops in Afg depend on TSP supply lines -- so even if Unkil may have finally woken up to the backstabbing of TSP, they cannot turn around and punch them in the face because TSP is still clutching the short and curlies. Once TSP grip loosens, then Unkil will be free to turn around and unleash their 'full wrath' with less fear of direct consequences. I am fairly certain we will see far greater US-TSP tension at that point. However, until we reach that point, Unkil can only go so far in 'turning the screws' on TSP.

To summarize: asking 'why hasn't Unkil hammered TSP if they are so strong' may be missing the point that (a) Unkil didn't know it should be hammering TSP until a couple of years ago, (b) now that they do know, they are constrained because their troops in Afg are vulnerable to Paki counter-attack, (c) despite this vulnerability, Unkil is already showing signs of 'turning the screws' given the massive moving of the 'theater of war' from Afg/Iraq/Yemen to Pak, and (d) once the constraint of US troops in Afg is removed, I am betting Unkil's full wrath will be unleashed, but not until then.

Of course this means the US was incredibly stupid (at best, and malicious at worst) not to have seen TSP perfidy for what it is decades ago; and especially after having been slapped in the face with 9/11 it took them an additional seven years and a new president to finally wake up to the true enemy. But I do agree with posters who are saying that US ability to turn screws on TSP is far greater than India's, simply because they are so much better placed than us (thousands of miles away, control of influential media, etc. etc.) to inflict pain on TSP. The ability is far from limitless but it is also greater than India's.

My 0.02 US dollahs onlee.

[rajpa]

kamboja - good post.

tsp overestimated their own skills in the perfidy dept isi-s. with all the recent moves - curtailing movements of us embassy personnel etc- they still think that the situation is controllable.

very soon, tsp will be forced out into the open and dragged into the mud. and then they will have to decide if they want to be a noko/iran axis of evil allied to china or be a really democratic type of state. and reap respective consequences.

sworn enemy of khan or long lost brothers of indian wkks welcoming them with tears in their eyes.

[A_Gupta]

Shorter Shiv & others discussion: US is Spiderman, Pakistan is Batman, Israel is Superman, China is Lex Luther. India is some random bystander. Or not.

[Shaashtanga]

Hajam Sethi's latest Aapas ki Baat episode (2nd August), here he talks about 10 biggest blunders in Paki history, right from Pak becoming the kiraye ke kaatil (hired assassin) state to constitutional acts justifying army takeovers etcetera
Clicky

[anjan]

Good.So that's settled, US pays Pakistan in return for a service that helps US, pray explain what service do we get through WKKs that helps India ?

You might notice that we're(as in India) not actually paying them. What service do you expect?

This is news to me! US is now in charge of securing the Afghan border too ? But then again we digress, ocean or no ocean does not help the fact our intelligence could be much much better than what it is now.

No? Interdicting supply routes of hostile forces is a primary tasking for anyone hoping to secure a country and fight an insurgency. What do you suppose all that fighting in the Korengal Valley was about? I was going to go with sarcasm but where to start if you think "securing the border" is too lowly a task? What do you believe the US is in charge of in Afghanistan then?

How do you know what attacks have been stopped? Sure, Intelligence can always be better. Terrain and geography are a huge part of the battle though. If you've never seen our borders then you cannot fully appreciate why it's hard to seal it. It's a lot harder for a bunch of pakjabis to hijack boats of the coast of California and it has jack all to do with good intelligence.

Since Indian bleeding heart WKKs are == China/US policy towards Pakistan,American bleeding hearts ==Chinese policy towards N.Korea ? Dhanya ho guruji for such pisskoligical analysis!

Show me the money. What does Pakistan have to show for A Roy? She's sadly still here and not as she promised sitting there awaiting our missiles. Meanwhile there are actual tangibles that the US concedes while its troops bleed. Bleed, as a point of fact, to actions directly attributable to Pakistani state assets. Supply line, supply line is what I always hear. How to secure it? The US cannot wage war on Pakistan. There is neither the stomach nor the wallet for(the rebuilding/propping up puppets after) it. What do you figure are Obama's chances if he starts a new war instead of ending the existing two? Pakistan knows this too. So the US pays in hard cash instead. Forgive me for believing that this is from a position of weakness.

Chinese policy is more complicated. That however was not the original question at all. It was about the great Khan.

[Yajnavalkya]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/nri/ ... 442676.cms

Pak community backs installation of Basaveshwara statue in UK

Chankian move? Basaveshwara was a social reformer.

[Theo_Fidel]

Hard though it may seem, esp. with recent activities and words spoken, TSP does not even figure in most American conversations. The US does not wake up every day asking, how do I punish TSP today. They rightfully realize this pimple of a country is on the other side of the world and not a linear threat to USA. In fact the conversation involves Iran a heck of a lot more that it does TSP even now after OBL. Iran and North Korea probably represent the maximal positions of the USA today, now that the days of Vietnam & Saddam are over.

While we may agonize over $22 Billion over 10 years , it is still a very small sum for Amrika. Probably similar to the budget of say Boise, Idaho. We would not agonize if say the budget of Nashik were given to Vietnam to oppose say Panda.

What USA wants in TSP land is space to act. It does not believe in 'punishing' or 'rebuilding' or even 'stabilizing'. It only wants as much stability as is necessary for it to be able to act in the region. To this end it 'stabilizes' the GOP just as far as is necessary to drone bomb, run its CIA assets and keep open the supply lines. Think of it as Life Support while it mucks around in the intestines, without anesthesia. By getting India to start some sort of Jaw Jaw the US is able to lower the Baksheesh amount. From say $30 Billion to say $22 Billion. WRT TSP this is all India represents to USA. A discount chip or coupon.

Now the US has developed a whole different appreciation for Indian money. They think Indian money can help discount their Baksheesh amount even more. Also their companies think there are Billion $ type contract amounts possible as India invests with a vengeance. That has started a entire separate channel of conversation between India & USA. Already this financial intercourse is much stronger than the old Indo-Pak one. Hence the gradual shift to Af-Pak.

As India has grown more wealthy we obsess less and less about TSP. We too have too many things on our mind now compared to older times when not much happened in Desh. Doesn't make the vicious attacks any less painful. Just that we are unable to focus on these things for too long. Already Heena and her bag & buttock are history. The number of complex issues on our plate are simply staggering, with 90% of them being economic in nature. It is only on major events like 26/11 that as a population we are able to concentrate. That event pretty much set the attitude of an entire generation of Indians to TSP. All the WKK business is meaningless.

[svinayak]

Now the US has developed a whole different appreciation for Indian money. They think Indian money can help discount their Baksheesh amount even more. Also their companies think there are Billion $ type contract amounts possible as India invests with a vengeance. That has started a entire separate channel of conversation between India & USA. Already this financial intercourse is much stronger than the old Indo-Pak one. Hence the gradual shift to Af-Pak.

This is a fake perception created and they are trying to fool the Indians. They want a metally slave population which does not do harm for their interest.

[Vinod Ji]

I don't know how to embed but please watch najam sethi in today's aapas ki baat at
http://www.friendskorner.com/forum/f319 ... -a-239470/

about 4 wars with india & coups in Pakistan.

[krisna]

The Haqqanis of North Waziristan

Combating Terrorism Center at West Point has a new report on the Haqqani network, the jehadi group based in North Waziristan. Titled The Haqqani Nexus and the Evolution of al-Qa’ida, the deeply-researched study report is authored by Don Rassler and Vahid Brown. The report explores how the Haqqani network has historically functioned as a nexus organization and as a strategic enabler of local, regional and global forms of Islamist militancy.

A few noteworthy extracts from the study, especially some pertaining to Kashmir:

At the regional level, many of the Pakistanis who fought with Haqqani would later shift their attention and employ the fighting skills and training they had acquired in Loya Paktia against Indian forces in Kashmir. Some would even go on to create their own jihadist organizations and become legendary commanders, a dynamic perhaps best exemplified by Fazlur Rahman Khalil and Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi, who were respectively central to the formation of Harakat ul Mujahidin (HuM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The Haqqani network’s direct support for various Kashmiri training camps are revealed in a 1998 communication from the Pakistani government to the Taliban, contained in the Harmony database. This document includes a list in Pashto and English of nine wanted Pakistani “terrorists,” with photographs and names, aliases and last known sightings.

The most striking element of the Haqqani network’s evolution post 9/11 is the persistence of its cross?dimensional nexus. During this decade, surprisingly little changed in terms of the Haqqani network’s relations, strategy and outlook. The war in Afghanistan has reinforced and strengthened the Haqqani network’s central role, with the group still being located at the nexus between local, regional and global forms of militancy. Similar to the 1990s, areas in which the Haqqani network exerts the most influence continue to be used as a platform to enable other actors, most notably al Qa’ida and more recently elements of the TTP. The Haqqani network has been able to maintain close ties with these actors while also remaining a key proxy for Islamabad, highlighting the paradox underlying Pakistan’s security policy. Perhaps most importantly, this nexus has also survived a generational change in leadership from father Jalaluddin to son Sirajuddin, as well as a ten year campaign against al Qa’ida conducted by the United States and its partner Pakistan.

By serving as the local to al?Qa’ida’s global over multiple decades, the Haqqani network has directly contributed to the development and endurance of global jihad

This makes the Haqqani network a willing ideological partner and an active participant in al Qa’ida’s global jihad, as Haqqani network leaders have consistently provided the local context and space for al Qa’ida to sustain itself and continue its fight. By shedding new light on the history of al Qa’ida, this report also tells us that al Qa’ida and the Haqqani network, and not the Quetta Shura Taliban, became the United States’ primary enemies on 11 September 2001.

More tangible is Pakistan’s reluctance to conduct a military operation against the Haqqani network and the milieu of jihadist actors sheltered in North Waziristan. Pakistan’s inaction is fueling the Afghan insurgency and it is also providing space for the Haqqani network to sustain itself and for anti?Pakistan militants and global jihadists to further coalesce. Left unchecked, North Waziristan will continue to function as the epicenter of international terrorism.

Perhaps there is good reason why the US has avoided highlighting this issue publicly. It is to save Pakistani Army chief General Kayani the embarrassment of being seen as sending his troops into North Waziristan under direct US pressure, if he agrees to send them there. But that is a big If — if General Kayani is able to convince his corps commanders that Pakistan army should actually be taking on its long-term strategic asset, the Haqqani network.

[krisna]

kerry lugar bill

[ramana]

krisna, What that study shows is Haqqani netwrok is irregular ISI. In other words its the non-state version of ISI to give them plausible deniablity.

To destroy the Haqqani network you need to destroy the ISI.

[krisna]

krisna, What that study shows is Haqqani network is irregular ISI. In other words its the non-state version of ISI to give them plausible deniablity.

To destroy the Haqqani network you need to destroy the ISI.

yes you are right
from the article

Given the ISI’s historical sponsorship of the Haqqani network, it is highly unlikely that Pakistan has not been aware of this history. Although less clear, there is also some evidence that the ISI helped, and continues to a lesser degree, to facilitate these ties, suggesting that Pakistan could have played a more influential role in the development of al Qa’ida than has thus far been recognized.

no wonder TSPA is unwilling to go after them as it has serious ramifications.

[jrjrao]

Pretty prominent on MSNBC today. Sure to give Pakis ravaging khujlis in the musharrafs. In fact, Musharraf is quoted in this story, and he makes an attempt at sounding angry and TFTA.

US prepares for worst-case scenario with
By Robert Windrem
NBC News Investigative Producer for Special Projects

As U.S.-Pakistani relations spiral downward, the specter of a showdown between the increasingly antagonistic allies is garnering more attention, including the worst-case scenario of the U.S. attempting to “snatch” Pakistan’s 100-plus nuclear weapons if it feared they were about to fall into the wrong hands.

That would be a disastrous miscalculation, former Pakistani President and army chief Pervez Musharraf told NBC News, saying that such an incursion would lead to “total confrontation” between the United States and Pakistan.

It’s no secret that the United States has a plan to try to grab Pakistan’s nuclear weapons -- if and when the president believes they are a threat to either the U.S. or U.S. interests.

In an interview with NBC News early this month, Musharraf warned that a snatch-and-grab operation would lead to all-out war between the countries, calling it “total confrontation by the whole nation against whoever comes in.”

“These are assets which are the pride of Pakistan, assets which are dispersed and very secure in very secure places, guarded by a corps of 18,000 soldiers,” said a combative Musharraf, who led Pakistan for nearly a decade and is again running for president. “… (This) is not an army which doesn't know how to fight. This is an army which has fought three wars ( INDEED, WITH STERLING RESULTS AFTER EACH WAR). Please understand that.”

[ramana]

Is he losing it? A divison is about 18,000 troops. Or is he insulting his corps commandus!

[CRamS]

I reiterate that the US is WKK^1000 when it comes to its relationship with Pakistan. Any misguided person who thinks otherwise must see the light - or we will forever get sidetracked.

Utter nonsense and not worth discussing if you persist with this line of argument. In addition to my insight on US dealing with TSP from an absolute position of strength, but geo-political interests such as maintaining TSP's balance of power with India prevent it from taking a more hard approach, please read the views of SuppiahJi: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 8#p1140698 (In addition, as RamaYji pointed out, it is within the space that US is constrained, that there is room for TSP perfidy. But make no mistake, US isn't tolerating TSP's hanky panky out of any weakness).

Let me summarize my view:

1. Is India handling Pakistan well? No
2. Are the actions of the WKK correct? No
3. Should India emulate the US in its handling of Pakistan? No

You are almost in agreement with most of us. So what are your arguing about endlessly. Just blowing steam?

[krisna]

Beijing's increasing jihadist challenge

Fears are rising in China that the weekend violence in Xinjiang is but the first skirmish in a larger war ahead.

Thirteen months before a missile fired from a Predator drone ended his life, the head of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) videotaped his final testament at his base in Pakistan's troubled North Waziristan.

( yours friendly neighbourhood)

My Muslim brothers in East Turkestan,” said Memtimin Memet in a January 2009 address released on jihadist websites linked to al-Qaeda. “We failed to follow the tenets of our faith, and instead supported our enemies — who enforced communism upon us, raped our women, violated the sanctity of our homes, invaded our land, and stole our wealth.” “Preparing to fight these atheist communists,” a narrator continued, “is an obligation upon every Muslim.”

For China, the killings are troubling news. Ever since 9/11, the TIP, like its sister-organisations targeting central Asia, has struggled to survive in the face of relentless assault by the United States and its allies, But, as the U.S. prepares to pull out of Afghanistan, Pakistan has ever-diminishing incentives to continue with its fitful — and destabilising — war against jihadist bases in North Waziristan. Fears are rising in China, as in much of central Asia, that the weekend violence in Xinjiang is but the first skirmish in a larger war ahead.

so unkil leaving af-pak is troubling to dlagon as unkil is footing the bill and bodybags so far.

For centuries a protectorate of distant emperors in Beijing, Xinjiang became part of modern China in 1949 after decades of violent rebellions and wars.

(in effect an occupied terrritory)

Xingjian's Uighur community is estimated to make up eight to 10 million of the region's 21 million population — a population that includes a welter of ethnic groups, including other Chinese Muslims like the Hui, as well as clusters of Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Tajiks.

(%age decline as hans have intruded into the area) Advantage is minorities like tibetans and uighurs have no one child policy in effect as compared to chinese hans in the long term)

But the birth of the modern Islamism in Xinjiang, as opposed to the traditionalist-leaning secessionists, was forged in another crucible: the great anti-Soviet Union jihad that tore Afghanistan apart from 1979. Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Uighurs are reputed to have participated in the jihad, returning home empowered with the belief that a superpower could be successfully defeated through insurgent warfare. In 1993, Hasan Mahsum and Abdukadir Yapuquam, both residents of the town of Hotan, founded the ETIM to spearhead this cause. Both men are known to have met Osama bin Laden; their cadre fought alongside the Taliban.

For three reasons, China's intelligence and security services are taking these threats seriously. First, as an increasingly global actor, China has become evermore vulnerable to transnational terrorism.

Second, ETIM and its affiliates are a regional concern — threatening the arc of States to China's west which are crucial to its energy security. The TIP is known to have worked closely with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which has waged brutal campaigns in the country of its birth, as well as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

(these countries are poor have rebellious peoples, dictattors with violence is common but energy rich. Oil pipelines run thru these countries into china)

Third, there is the obvious: unlike India, China has succeeded in averting large-scale communal strife, using its rapid economic growth to defuse the ethnic-religious tensions which have, inevitably, arisen in times of momentous change. Events like the 2009 riots, though, drove home the point that terrorism posed a real threat to internal peace within China.

(once economic growth slows down internal dissension will take its own dynamics)

In 2009, Pakistani diplomat Masood Khan had gushing words of praise of his country's relationship with Beijing: it was, he said, “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, sweeter than honey, stronger than steel, all-weather and time-tested.”

Looks like bakistan is needed more than ever .
As they say every bad ass has at least one good virtue, hope bakis prove it is a badass with one good virtue.

[RamaY]

RamaY, Geelani, the chief Hurrirat, has told Hina Khar that he intends to extend his campaign to PoK also. Shows the US origins of Hurrirat to Raphael's handiwork in 1990s.

--

India is ignoring the pivot. Sort of 'benign neglect." Anything else will rally/centralize the forces inside TSP.

Was thinking same about whore-iat. Hope india pushes this strategy to it's logical end, not USA's end; an independent cashmere as a compromise.

IMHO india's benign neglect of pak-as-pivot is due to its nonrecognition of Pakistan as a separate entity.

[anupmisra]

Beijing's increasing jihadist challenge

Notice anything consistent with the cookie cutter message that Islamists around the world, and in pa'astan in particular send out to instigate the populace? Here, take a gander:

"My Muslim brothers in __________<Fill in the region: Cashmere, Palestine, Chechnya, China, Uk'istan, Germanistan, Francisistan....>, we failed to follow the tenets of our faith, and instead supported our enemies — who enforced ________<Fill in the cause de jour: Unfair Laws, Crusader Laws, Alien Culture, Anti-Islamic Laws...> upon us, raped our women, violated the sanctity of our homes, invaded our land, and stole our wealth. Preparing to fight these ________< Fill in the imagined enemy: Crusaders, Hindus, Jews, Communists, Homos, Sons of Pigs....> is an obligation upon every Muslim."

Amazing, isnt it?

[ramana]

You forgot snatched unborn foetuses from women.

BTW this was the charge during Ali's time.

[KJo]

Muslims are big on izzat (hence constant harping on H&D by Pakis), so they use "and they raped our wimmen " to provoke anger in fellow Muslims.

[abhishek_sharma]

Lashkar-e-Taiba's rise, before Mumbai: BY STEPHEN TANKEL

[Virupaksha]

Is he losing it? A divison is about 18,000 troops. Or is he insulting his corps commandus!

it might be their version of strategic command. So their strategic command might be a division.

if I have to take a wild guess, it will be a division raised in late 1980's situated in the western punjab and be under the HQ reserve.

[shiv]

Clearly there are many opinions about how India should deal with Pakistan - opinions that have ranged from giving up Kashmir (people have actually said that on BRF in the past) to nuking Pakistan.

If you study the manner in which three significant countries deal with Pakistan there may be lessons on how to move forward. The three countries are the USA, China and India. I will come to India last.

The US has treated Pakistan as an ally. Funding, arming and diplomatic and military support has been given to Pakistan. The US has never been in a state of war with Pakistan. After 9-11 the US has had some difficulty with Pakistan and has shown some minor signs of irritation with Pakistan. But on balance the US has given Pakistan 3 billion dollars a year, half to the military and has referred to Pakistan as an ally and has done everything in its power to ensure that it does not antagonize the Pakistani army bar a few incidents. The US has acknowledged the Pakistani use of Islamic militants for state purposes and has mainly objected to the use of those militants against US interests. The link between the Pakistan army and those militants has never been officially called out in public and the Pakistan army has never been publicly shamed by the USA bar the bin Laden raid. As a result of these policies the USA gets some cooperation from Pakistan

Pakistan considers China as an ally and an all weather friend. The Chinese too have never fought a war with Pakistan. They have given nuclear material, nuclear bomb designs, nuclear reactors, aircraft and ships to Pakistan. Pakistan has ceded territory to China and has invited China to occupy and develop parts of Pakistan. Relations between Pakistan and China are cordial. When Islamic militants kidnapped some Chinese in Islamabad, the Pakistani army responded with vigor and wiped out the kidnappers den in Lal Masjid - so there is considerable "give and take" in Pakistan's relations with China.

India's relationship with Pakistan is a unique case. Antagonism and dispute marked the creation of Pakistan. A war was fought over Kashmir within the first year of independence and a second war was fought 18 years later, followed closely by a third war 6 years after that. The third war (1971) split Pakistan up - and this was followed by a period where there appeared to be no war. The issue is muddied because Pakistan changed to covert war after 1971. From 1980 there was support for insurgencies in India. I think Indians in general, and BRFites in particular will have no dispute with this narrative. But what i want to highlight here is the fact that Pakistan played a diplomatic/geopolitical game with admirable finesse. It is another matter that Pakistan screwed up internally, I am not going to talk about that here.

What Pakistan did was to bend over backwards to accommodate the cold war concerns of the US, helping to place India in the "soviet camp". Pakistan also played on China's fears of India to ingratiate themselves with China.

In other words
1. China and Pakistan cooperated in opposing India
2. The USA and Pakistan cooperated in opposing "Soviet ally" India

Both China and the USA have benefited in the long term from the antagonism between Pakistan and India. India-Pakistan antagonism had fed and nurtured US-Pakistan and China-Pakistan friendship. Both China and the USA tolerate Pakistani militant actions against their interests in the larger cause of maintaining friendly relations with Pakistan which they see as a more important long term goal that the relatively minor irritants of terrorism in Afghanistan or Xinjiang. Even today the US and China are able to use Pakistani antagonism towards India to keep Pakistan on "their side" as their ally. The more India thinks of attacking Pakistan or hitting Pakistan, the more the USA and China benefit.

The unfortunate fallout of this situation for India is that while we might celebrate US forces being killed by the Taliban and Xinjiang burning, but all these problems will come to a halt in a millisecond if India makes war with Pakistan. India is faced with two choices
1. Don't make war with Pakistan
2. Make peace with Pakistan

If there is any other good choice I would like someone to point that out to me.

Footnote:
If Pakistan is India's adversary, then the US and China will be India's foes
If Islamist militancy is India's adversary, the US and China will have common cause with India

[Manny]

http://pk.msn.com/news/localnews/alqama ... featuredpk

Baloch and Sindhis demand for the US intervention in Balochistan

[RamaY]

^^

If islamism is different from Pakistan, there would be no Pakistan.

[Hari Seldon]

The unfortunate fallout of this situation for India is that while we might celebrate US forces being killed by the Taliban and Xinjiang burning, but all these problems will come to a halt in a millisecond if India makes war with Pakistan. India is faced with two choices
1. Don't make war with Pakistan
2. Make peace with Pakistan

400% agreed. Option 3 could be 'make proxy war with Pak' using deniability as a weapon. Or maybe Dilli's already doing that in all its grand chankian-ness and aam jingoes are unaware only.

[shiv]

Some further thoughts on the following theme

If Pakistan is India's adversary, then the US and China will be India's foes
If Islamist militancy is India's adversary, the US and China will have common cause with India

Pakistan of course has played a fine game in which the leaders have projected the country as a secular nation state while the internal politics of the country has been decidedly Islamist. For a long time Pakistan played the "Headley-Fai" game in which a moderate secular face serves as cover for an Islamist mindset. The secular face was shown to the USA (and China) while the Islamist face was the one that carved Pakistan out of India.

As stated many times before on this thread, an Islamist takeover of Pakistan benefits India because the secular mask of taqiyya that Pakistan has shown to the US and China will be removed. The US and China will see the face of Pakistan that India has seen for 60 plus years.

The US and China are both playing a desperate rearguard action in which they seek to support what they believe is a secular Pakistani nation state which has been infested with some "misguided Islamist elements". The US believes (rightly or wrongly) that there is a secular "true" Pakistan somewhere inside Pakistan that will show itself up if Islamic militancy is conquered.

Both China and the US have been, and still are ever willing to hold the hand of that "secular Pakistan" and fund them and arm them, hoping that Islamic militancy will subside. I believe that both China and the USA are unwilling to contemplate their biggest horror scenario - which is the collapse of the Pakistani state and the emergence of Islamist Pakistan as the true inheritor of Pakistan. It gives me a great deal of pleasure to type these words because I think the USA and China are both wrong. Islam is Pakistan and Pakistan is islam. Any attempt to separate Islamism from the Pakistani state will collapse the Pakistani state.

But India's choices are not too cheerful either. India's first priority will have to be to make no war with Pakistan and at least pretend to make peace so that China and the US do not get a chance to arm and fund their "secular ally" Pakistan against India. In my view Pakistan is an out and out Islamist state displaying taqiyya. The US and China will see that sooner or later. What the US and China will do then is to try and mollycoddle the islamists of Pakistan - funding them and arming them to remain antagonistic towards India while not attacking US and Chinese interests. This is something that India needs to anticipate now. One possible route for India is to help moderate Pakistani Islam. I don't know how and have no ideas.

[A_Gupta]

Eventually striking at India will be inextricably linked with striking at US and Chinese interests. Behold the wonders of international Capitalism.

[Suppiah]

At the present course of WKK-ism set by our ruling elite the possibilities vis-a-vis TSP are

1. Unkil/China get convinced about TSP double game, get together and fix it themselves in a positive way ie root out jihad from source
2. Same as above, but in a negative way as Shiv pointed out, fix it for themselves but advise us to turn other cheek and continue dialogue when the terror gets fully redirected to India.
3. TSP itself realises, like most whores do, either due to old age or lack of customers, that it has been one and that is not a respectable way of existence and best to make peace with India. Again like whores and Bollywood starlets, they make a virtue of this necessity.
4. TSP breaks up by itself.
5. Just by sheer momentum of inertia (is that a valid term?!) Indian economy grows to a point where costs are higher than benefit for the kind of game Unkil/China are playing. As I mentioned earlier in many posts, this is already happening though at glacial pace.
6. TSP gets taken over completely, overtly by bearded barbarians who now control it indirectly offering 'plausible deniability' to Unkil.
7. TSP gets caught in the Iran-Arab game, tries to do same tricks ie., play both sides of the game and gets beaten by both.
8. Oil era ends, the root cause of jehadi terrorism - billions flowing into ME coffers ends and hence the entire region including all of Ummah goes back to 6th century as they always wanted. Rest of civilised world ignores them. TSP too finds itself a sugar-daddy less whore.

In case you missed, none of these options require any action on our behalf....perhaps that is what GOI WKKs are doing too..

[Kati]

^^^^^

...But Shiv-ji,...the last option for india is again a catch-22 situation......helping the moderate islamists in Pakistan will eventually help US + China, and the whole set of chain reactions will start afresh.....
...
How about India just watch silently the take over of TSP by extreme jihadists. It will
then prompt US+China to make something decisive, I mean breaking up TSP. From a
pure strategic point of view, it makes sense for Indian leaders, directly or by proxy, to
make noise about "how the muslims in Pakistan are being victimized by imperial Unkil
and communist dragon"....
Sounds naive?
But it'll deflect some of the jihadi focus from India to unkil and dragon......a pure
strategic move....
...
but, oh, yes, the "indian leaders"......

[A_Gupta]

http://bit.ly/quvh3Y

Might have already been posted. Baber's attempt to ram into the Godavari.

[shiv]

http://bit.ly/quvh3Y

Might have already been posted. Baber's attempt to ram into the Godavari.

Yes it was posted yesterday when the video had a hit count of about 170. Tday it has 5000 and most are from BRF if you look at the stats counter. The Babur closed in from behind and tried to cut in at the back of teh godavari and there are moments of panic among the Pakis as they make a mistake and actully hit the ship. After that the Babur rapidly slows down while the relieved Pakis shout to their Allah

[KLNMurthy]

...
In case you missed, none of these options require any action on our behalf....perhaps that is what GOI WKKs are doing too..

GOI WKKs go beyond just sitting with popcorn and watching events in TSP unfold while consciously avoiding action, or even chanakianly pretending to be friends--at the core, they are actually sincere in wishing Pakistan well, and in the case of some who have been brainwashed with pre-partition nostalgia, hankering for things to be all brotherly with the Pakis, as they imagine was the case in the "good old days."

This is not a strategic calculation but heartfelt if misplaced goodwill. Very different from the cool calculation which drives US and China to pay off Pakistan and pay the additional price of constantly having to keep it on some semblance of god behavior, even accepting that there can be no such thing as genuine love between them. The GOI / WKK attitude and US-China attitude are incommensurables; we can't say the two are 'like' or 'unlike' each other.

If TSP is a whore, then WKK / GOI is like the goodhearted lover played by Jack Lemmon I believe, in the movie Irma la Douce (remade in Hindi as Manoranjan, played by Sanjeev Kumar?). The lover may get exasperated at the whore's destructive acts but never stops loving her.

This is sweet, and at some level speaks to the essential benevolence of the Indics; but in the real world it is a toxic relationship, and given the magnitude of india, a relationship that is bound to put all of humanity in grave danger. The relationship must be broken up and replaced by a reciprocal hostility that is carefully managed to fall short of nuclear war.

[Dipanker]

36pc of Pakistanis undernourished

ISLAMABAD: Leading aid and development charity Oxfam said 36 per cent of Pakistanis were undernourished, listing Pakistan among the 21 nations of the world which were found to be undernourished according to an interactive map published on Wednesday.

Pakistan was adjudged to be more undernourished than Tanzania (35 per cent), Niger (28 per cent) and Yemen (32 per cent) where nearly every third person was feared to be malnourished.

[Ambar]

You might notice that we're(as in India) not actually paying them. What service do you expect?

..and hence the comparison between Indian WKKs and US/China policies towards Pakistan is preposterous and ridiculous.

No? Interdicting supply routes of hostile forces is a primary tasking for anyone hoping to secure a country and fight an insurgency. What do you suppose all that fighting in the Korengal Valley was about? I was going to go with sarcasm but where to start if you think "securing the border" is too lowly a task? What do you believe the US is in charge of in Afghanistan then?

Supply routes are now same as securing the borders of a country ? The Korengal offensive was a part of core Afghan strategy "Target,Train and Transfer" and never "securing" Afghanistan's border "sovereignty". Even the security of supply logistics is not covered by the US military, if so, ever inch of the long route between Karachi to Kandahar would have to be secured by the US. So 140 thousand NATO troops are fighting a bitter war,holding on to cities/towns/villages in Afghanistan, training the Afghan forces and also making sure Afghanistan's non-existent borders are secure? wow!

How do you know what attacks have been stopped? Sure, Intelligence can always be better. Terrain and geography are a huge part of the battle though. If you've never seen our borders then you cannot fully appreciate why it's hard to seal it. It's a lot harder for a bunch of pakjabis to hijack boats of the coast of California and it has jack all to do with good intelligence.

I have seen those attacks that haven't been stopped, and there is one too many for comfort.

Show me the money. What does Pakistan have to show for A Roy? She's sadly still here and not as she promised sitting there awaiting our missiles. Meanwhile there are actual tangibles that the US concedes while its troops bleed. Bleed, as a point of fact, to actions directly attributable to Pakistani state assets. Supply line, supply line is what I always hear. How to secure it? The US cannot wage war on Pakistan. There is neither the stomach nor the wallet for(the rebuilding/propping up puppets after) it. What do you figure are Obama's chances if he starts a new war instead of ending the existing two? Pakistan knows this too. So the US pays in hard cash instead. Forgive me for believing that this is from a position of weakness.

Chinese policy is more complicated. That however was not the original question at all. It was about the great Khan.

Your question was my original answer! US shows the money,gets a service,much cheaper and less painful than going on another war. How on earth is Arundhoti doing India's bidding ? And how is this WKK ==US/China ? No, the "==" between WKKs and others wasn't limited to the "great Khan", it was great Khan and Chinese policies towards Pak.

[chetak]

http://bit.ly/quvh3Y

Might have already been posted. Baber's attempt to ram into the Godavari.

Yes it was posted yesterday when the video had a hit count of about 170. Tday it has 5000 and most are from BRF if you look at the stats counter. The Babur closed in from behind and tried to cut in at the back of teh godavari and there are moments of panic among the Pakis as they make a mistake and actully hit the ship. After that the Babur rapidly slows down while the relieved Pakis shout to their Allah

Some on the Babur's bridge would have been hallaled, for sure.

[SSridhar]

Some on the Babur's bridge would have been hallaled, for sure.

Chetak, why ? OTOH, they are heroes in Pakistan's eyes. They challenged an Indian warship and that too from the behinds and slowed down to face the Indian ship's response. But, the cowardly Hindus chose to remain silent. A nice retribution for the bombing of the Karachi harbour in 1971. I am sure the commander of the ship would get an award soon, probably Nishan-e-Imtiaz.

[sum]

I am sure the commander of the ship would get an award soon, probably Nishan-e-Imtiaz.

HT channel was reporting this yesterday ( Shiv Aroor probably picked up dhaga from BRF).

They mentioned that the ex-ISI captain of this ship has been promoted very recently after the incident, as per "secret sources"

[Mort Walker]

Shiv,

I've been reading your posts for a while and note your more cynical disposition. In any case, here are some points to consider:

1. The US is no longer in a position to grant as much aid to Pakistan as it once did, since the US macro economic condition is weak. Yes, $3 billion/year is not much for the US, but internally there are calls to reduce all foreign aid in order to set its own house in order first.
2. The US military personnel in the Af-Pak theater are very unhappy with the lying and back stabbing of the Pakistani army. The US military, from the rank of brigadier general and below, knows full well the Pak army is responsible for the death of its soldiers in the Af-Pak theater. These officers will be in the Pentagon leadership position in the near future and they have a very negative opinion of Pakistan from experience.
3. The US-Pakistan relationship is based on three legs. One, the Pak army and US military relationship is based out of the Pentagon leadership. Second relationship is the US Dept. of State and Pakistani political leadership. Finally, the third relationship is the White House with whomever the Pakistani dictator is of the year. In my opinion, this military relationship is going sour, for the reason stated earlier, and overall relations are being supported by the other two legs. The relationship with the White House is on thin ice and could improve further, but if there is a major terrorist strike against US interests or some crazy like the shoe bomber or Time Square bomber from Pakistan attacks the US mainland, then any US president must strike targets, assets, of the Pak army out for US political survival. See Bob Woodward's book "Obama's Wars".
4. In my opinion, the US-Pakistan relationship with the White House can also be made less relevant should US-India trade go over $100 billion, or become a top 5 US trading partner, over the next few years. There is money to be made by the corporations who have tremendous political leverage with a US president from any political party. Its a double edged sword because these corporations will also screw India economically, but they will ensure Pakistan is relegated to the dust bin of history.