Bharat Rakshak

Vayutuvan wrote:

ManSingh wrote:The 1. simulation 2. design tools 3. Lithograhpic manufacturing equipment are the other key.

Three different areas. The design tools are followed by simulation. Litho tools are in the loop - from the start to end.

ManSingh wrote: Synopsys, Cadence, ASML etc..

array saar, please do expand on that etc..
Synopsys and Cadence are in a different space than ASML.

My point: There is no point for taking a hard stand by India on the issue for/against Russia.

China, Russia, India, UAE are the four countries that vetoed/abstained from the UN security council resolutions. Previously China and now Russia has lost access to this ecosystem. They are denied the tools ( Synopsys ), fabs ( TSMC won't ship to Russia/China and ASML won;t sell lithographic machines to Chinese fabs. I maybe wrong but I believe UAE has no use of this ecosystem. This leaves only India which maybe subject to pressure on loosing access to this ecosystem via US export control rules. We are also at a bigger disadvantage because we don't have the fabs either unlike China. So if India is denied access, it would be goodbye to electronics design and manufacturing for a long time till these tools/facilities are developed indigenously ( a long shot! ).

Irrespective of our vote US will not give us anything

Expecting anyone to just give anything to us shows lack of mental maturity.

If someone is prepared to sell something to is. That is because we are a market and they expect to make money from us.

Some of the sellers are more dishonest then others. But that's the price to be paid for external dependencies.

Breaking: Belarus has revoked non-nuclear status, paving way for Russia to place nuclear weapons in the country.

Russia is currently designing and fabricating micro processors using a 28 Nano meter process node for any national security applications.

The commercial industrial capacity might be effected by sanctions.

But national security apparatus can continue to function without any major obstacles.

They own design skills and node.

Something similar can be done by India as well for as little as 250 million USD.

Having said, I still think Putin step was rash and stupid, he has walked into a trap, US, UK and CHina will benefit. Europe, Russia and to some extent India will sufffer.

But this clearly shows how we are mostly controlled through NGO puppets, we need some 20-25 years in mission mode before we start solving some of our messes.

Best analysis of the current invasion state I have seen. It is by a grunt and not a general

https://youtu.be/xKFSK_9e-g4

Aditya_V wrote:Having said, I still think Putin step was rash and stupid, he has walked into a trap, US, UK and CHina will benefit. Europe, Russia and to some extent India will sufffer.

I don't think that US and UK will benefit at all in this adventure. The only real beneficiary is PRC. The real loser is US. followed by East Asia and potentially India.

European states will not be able to handle the Russian bear on their own. Which ties up US in another European mess.

PRC when it's emerged in it's final form. Cannot be handled just by a distracted by Europe US and East Asian power's alone.

Note: that I no longer count quad amounting to anything in the next few decades. It has been a talking shop untill now. At best it will remain so.

Russia and India will have to be a part of the security systems needed to contain PRC. That's not happening now.

https://www.axios.com/us-protests-israe ... 6cce5.html

U.S. protests Israel's refusal to back UN resolution condemning Russia

Very interesting. Zelensky is first Jewish president of Ukraine and considers Israel as model. Yet Israel is neutral.

Jewish and he has allowed the AZOV battalion which is an open neo-nazi far right militia into the national guard. I doubt Israelis are gonna back him up anytime soon

sivab wrote:https://www.axios.com/us-protests-israe ... 6cce5.html

U.S. protests Israel's refusal to back UN resolution condemning Russia

Very interesting. Zelensky is first Jewish president of Ukraine and considers Israel as model. Yet Israel is neutral.

Aditya_V wrote:Having said, I still think Putin step was rash and stupid, he has walked into a trap, US, UK and CHina will benefit. Europe, Russia and to some extent India will suffer

What if: Putins half hearted invasion is only meant to tie down US/western forces, so that China gets a free hand against Taiwan or India?

AdityaM wrote:

Aditya_V wrote:Having said, I still think Putin step was rash and stupid, he has walked into a trap, US, UK and CHina will benefit. Europe, Russia and to some extent India will suffer

What if: Putins half hearted invasion is only meant to tie down US/western forces, so that China gets a free hand against Taiwan or India?

If you were Putin, would you risk your armed forces' lives, your country's economy, your international (and possibly internal) political standing, and maybe even full-scale nuclear conflict on your home soil... just so that China gets a free hand?

Putin sems to have already played most of his cards if he is already threatening to play the nuclear card. At this point, things are starting to look pretty bad. Rouble just hit it's lowest against USD and there are talks of bank run. The economic war undid the Soviet Union and it might do the same to Putin.

Things might turn very ugly before they get better. This is a conflict that no one needed, except for maybe PRC. Maybe Putin will realize that and sue for a quick ceasefire proclaiming gains for the domestic audience.

Rudradev wrote:

AdityaM wrote: What if: Putins half hearted invasion is only meant to tie down US/western forces, so that China gets a free hand against Taiwan or India?

If you were Putin, would you risk your armed forces' lives, your country's economy, your international (and possibly internal) political standing, and maybe even full-scale nuclear conflict on your home soil... just so that China gets a free hand?

Of course not; but then again, he is already risking a half hearted effort.
The bear is being less brutal, very unusual of them. So real agenda has to be elsewhere


To the Gurus here: during Kargil, Pakistan was willing to sacrifice NLI, but would be wary of expending their punjabi troops as cannon fodder.
Is there a similar parallel in Russia? They are bringing in Chechen troops, so I am assuming that loss of Chechen fighter will not be as intolerable as mainland sons of soil.
Is Russia feigning a full fledged war effort?

Reminds me of analytical posts in Levant thread during Syria campaign, so educative :

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... UE6Vg&s=19

other than vdv and spetsnaz units, rest of russi army seem vehicle bound & not highly capable as dismounted infantry, esp for complex urban fighting with politically mandated NO artillery & gunships to blast the way. in that scenario all will fail not just russi 1/n

our J&K police and CRPF seem much more capable and equipped for that role. Russis want to fight a war of movement on open fields, Ukr has abandoned all thoughts of that and will fight _only_ from cities, parking their gear among houses and daring russi to come in and fight 2/n

with pre-sited c3i teams provided by nato in deeply buried bunkers or under civil structures like apts/malls & satphone gear to use for psyops videos - so even cutting wired & 4g is not going to block leak of psywar videos albeit slow it down. 'police action' narrative fails 3/n

Ukr plan to sit in cities, fight back probes & let the world reaction and effects on russian economy grow more & more adverse. fan civil unrest in russia..new revolution. they know 'police action' narrative means cities are unlikely to be shelled or even gas/power/4g cut off
4/n

glaring weakness in russi air surveillance and airbase denial showing up as Ukr able to stage their remaining fighters and drones from near moldova and western side using isolated airstrips and roads(for bayraktars)...this must have been gamed & trained for earlier 5/n

Ukr at present will not concede to any russi demand and dare them to fight on since russi has shown no willingness or ability to go after western ukr and destroy the new strongholds there via belarus .... 6/n

attack on supply train is a ancient thing. every book on ww3 has such teams attacking supply chains and stores in west europe. 7/n

chechnya has been at peace and the militias lack battle exp unlike the retired lot. bushy hipster beard, skinny pants, tacticool gear, high cut helmets .. have to see how good they are ... not yet exposed to any serious fight 8/n

russia can certainly carve up all the east bank of the dneipr and make it a defacto border but may need to leave kiev and not demand regime change...instead just annex upto odessa and east of dneipr and call the novorossiya project done 9/n

non-linear soln is they need lots and lots of good infantry and caucasus muslim leftover areas are their only source with uzbekistan gone away (rest of CAR are space pop)...10/n

would suggest Pakistan could provide solution(!) - long tradition of hard fighting baloch, pathan, jutt, rajput musalman regts w/ plenty of battle experience & no lack of manpower or line infantry skills.
pakistan can provide rus with good dismount infantry it badly lacks n/n

IAF has better tools for precision strike now with saaw and rudram going in, I dare say we would have done better than the mostly minimal help ruaf has offered barring the frogfoots. a week into the war they are still having to use precious iskanders and kalibr for airbases

saaw with derated warheads permits going in among populated areas to strike artillery and tanks parked near houses with minimal collateral damaged using a vertical shaped dive profile to focus cone of explosion downwards.
we need say 50,000 saaw on a emergency basis.

the time to experiment and prove such concepts, how to deal with similar strategies in our context is now. nobody can just 'derate' a SAAW on the fly without good amt of test on adding small warheads and ballast for such urban CAS PGM role or maybe laser guided rockets from helis

needless to say LCH in huge nos is a urgent need .... the days of waving around a couple iphones and having the natives in awe of the mirrors & beads is LONG over.

hope our top brass has woken up after this fracture of the world system...

days of sending a high level team to russia in a emergency and arranging for a few C17 loads of essential gear are over. russia is going to be under huge pressure on all fronts and will need to rebuild its military to face expanding nato forces.

germany for eg has both the money and tech to build big. they had conscription of 2 yrs and a huge high tech army upto the end of cold war.

India and China are now the only 2 large nations with a foot in both camps. Turkey is a marginal third case.
China is insulated due to being the worlds factory and a host of other reasons.

after russia, the next 'usual suspect' to be beaten & punished is surely India.

hybrid combined arms lashkars of wokes, murican deep state, global left, anarchists, jihadists all have a common agenda - get Mudi ji out, bring back the good old days...
they are already on the march globally.

time is running out...

Pratyush wrote:

European states will not be able to handle the Russian bear on their own. Which ties up US in another European mess.
.

I'm not sure this is very right. Russian population is small, the economy is small and under sanctions, large area to protect. So, if EU decides they can easily take care of Russia. But since US is providing cover, they just go with it.

This is US mess anyway. They are the ones arm twisting EU on everything

The more time goes this looks worse for Russia.

Checking social feeds and speaking to Russian friends it seems the war is not popular. Yes people are standing for their country but they are saying that this war against Slavic brothers was unwarranted.

Of course it's a minuscule sample. But that people are writing openly is a departure from the past. Two of my contacts have solidly voted for United Russia al through the last decade and a half.

The current scenario is too stressed. Something has to give. And the change when it comes will be of seismic proportions.

We live in interesting times.

AdityaM wrote: What if: Putins half hearted invasion is only meant to tie down US/western forces, so that China gets a free hand against Taiwan or India?

I don't think that will happen. US/Western Forces will fight till the last of the Ukranians are disposed and then will make a deal with the remnants of Russia.

vinod wrote: I'm not sure this is very right. Russian population is small, the economy is small and under sanctions, large area to protect. So, if EU decides they can easily take care of Russia. But since US is providing cover, they just go with it.

This is US mess anyway. They are the ones arm twisting EU on everything

What happens, if Russia is completely subsumed by PRC in the next few decades.

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:The more time goes this looks worse for Russia.

Checking social feeds and speaking to Russian friends it seems the war is not popular. Yes people are standing for their country but they are saying that this war against Slavic brothers was unwarranted.

Two of my Russian colleagues who are secretly Putin supporters (only confided in me since I am Indian) are also not happy about this war. But they both live in the West and exposed to western median/propaganda. We don't know the pulse of ordinary Russians in Russia.

^^^^
For Last few posts........that is the reason Putin has alerted Strategic forces. EU will never let its superior genteel people to die for some half civilised eastern Slaves. Keep this in mind. Any EU or US fighter plane hit Russian forces, the response will be asymmetrical. Those who live in swanky crystal palaces have more to loose. Simple as that.

The common refrain on the forum seems to be: the more time that goes by, the worse it is for Russia. IOWS, this is taking too long.

Wonder if this is direct result of media spin that can't be avoided anywhere today.

For all we know russkis are just going about their business and most ukranian army has been coopted.

I remember all the hoopla western media made about Clinton's easy victory in 2016. We all know how it turned out.

Point is, we simply don't know.

I think in the geopolitical context Russia's veto at the UN is of critical importance to India. Loss of which can potentially be disastrous., also lead to emergence of G2.

rsingh wrote:^^^^
For Last few posts........that is the reason Putin has alerted Strategic forces. EU will never let its superior genteel people to die for some half civilised eastern Slaves. Keep this in mind. Any EU or US fighter plane hit Russian forces, the response will be asymmetrical. Those who live in swanky crystal palaces have more to loose. Simple as that.

Putin seems to be ok with a tactical nuclear strike if it comes to that, their doctrine allows the use of nukes in such context.

Dilbu wrote:Breaking: Belarus has revoked non-nuclear status, paving way for Russia to place nuclear weapons in the country.

It was a given, Lukashenko is the last word not his parliament.

Pratyush wrote:Russia is currently designing and fabricating micro processors using a 28 Nano meter process node for any national security applications.

The commercial industrial capacity might be effected by sanctions.

But national security apparatus can continue to function without any major obstacles.

They own design skills and node.

Something similar can be done by India as well for as little as 250 million USD.

28nm node requires 12" / 300mm wafer fab. Costs upwards of $5B to setup. A GaN fab on 8"/200mm wafers itself costs $400-500M

Sly moves by the Chinese?

Offers "build back better world" plan to US aka g2

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 022-02-28/

IMO Russia and Ukraine are playing the waiting game. Russia doesn't want to go into an urban warfare while Ukraine is looking to draw them into one. If Russian tanks are out of fuel or even lying in wait, aren't they sitting ducks especially with the thousands of anti tank missiles that Ukraine was gifted? None of the sides is taking the battle to the other side yet.

The cutoff from SWIFT and central bank sanctions on Russia hold big lessons for China. Against Russia's $640 billion of foreign exchange reserves, China has > $3 trillion in reserves. And while sanctioning China will have major global trade repercussions, the Chinese will make sure that they have a Plan B in the event they decide to move against Taiwan given what has happened to Russia.

Besides CIPS which is the Chinese payment system, China introduced the digital yuan last year and while the rollout is still limited to certain Chinese cities and is a retail phenomenon right now, there is no reason as to why in the years ahead it cannot be scaled up for commercial payments including cross border payments. It is particularly well suited for China as China runs a trade surplus with virtually every country in the world other than Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia. And making payments in digital yuan will bypass SWIFT, CHIPS and from the Chinese viewpoint the surveillance and control that goes with those systems. Since China runs such large trade surpluses with almost every trade counter party, countries will have an incentive to store digital yuan for making payments to China, thus bypassing the US $ and Euro.

Big lesson for India. Atmanirbhar is only half the story. It has to be Atmanirbhar at the lowest cost in the world.

kit wrote:I think in the geopolitical context Russia's veto at the UN is of critical importance to India. Loss of which can potentially be disastrous., also lead to the emergence of G2.

Yes, that is quite important. Which other country is willing to support Indian interest in the UN. I don't think Khan will ever use their Veto for India even if we sign all the 4 letter treaties.

The sanctions from Central Bank and cut off from SWIFT is warning to us also. These can be re-activated the next time we do something that the West won't like but is strongly in our interests, such as a nuclear test.
We need to start building financial systems that can withstand this.

Neela wrote:
28nm node requires 12" / 300mm wafer fab. Costs upwards of $5B to setup. A GaN fab on 8"/200mm wafers itself costs $400-500M

I had confused the 28 nano meter node with domestic process. The design is domestic, the fabrication is by TSMC.

The Russian state of the art was 65 nano meter.

But to my knowledge no CPUs were produced using this node. However, the lithography machines of that process are quite cheap, if available from Nikon and Canon.

Except Australia, NZ and a handful of other countries in Europe, all the remaining white countries are participants in this war. As a percentage of population, 90% of white nations are at war.

Millions of Russians even today remember what they underwent in 1998 when Moscow devalued the ruble and defaulted on its foreign debt. People lost their lifetime savings overnight. In fact one of Putin’s key promises to the Russian people was that he wouldn’t let it happen again.

But the western led sanctions will likely ensure probably that. Russian government bond is now rated as junk, Bansi have been delinked from SWIFT, and even the Russian central bank’s gold reserves apparently can’t be used to bail the economy out. The Ruble has crashed.

We will possibly see impact on mango man in Russia Beth quickly.

I refused to believe Putin had not gamed this. He was warned about this before and knows what is coming.

hanumadu wrote:Except Australia, NZ and a handful of other countries in Europe, all the remaining white countries are participants in this war. As a percentage of population, 90% of white nations are at war.

Saar Australia is providing lethal weapons to Ukraine and has also imposed Economic sanctions

https://www.financialexpress.com/world- ... 6454/lite/

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2033091/business-economy

And New Zealand has also imposed some economic sanctions.

Make that 95 percent.

Spoils of War:
American MIC --> New Cold War and Billions in sales
UK and other European countries --> Fresh hands to man the economy (UK especially after brexit seems to be having a hard time to fill jobs
Russia --> Parts of Ukraine (Not sure if Russia is in on it or just a victim
Ukraine --> The biggest loser

This could be really big.

What we are seeing is the *possible* early days of USSR 2.0 (semi-democratic, and having Ukraine, Belarus, Abkhazia and maybe the Central Asia 'Stans).
What we are also seeing is the *possible* early days of European Union as a military power. Now that Germany is going to spend more on military, it is only a matter of time before a Franco-German alliance develops and becomes a pivot for the rest of Europe.

Yagnasri wrote:I refused to believe Putin had not gamed this. He was warned about this before and knows what is coming.

There is definitely a support to believe that a lot of preparations were made over years to minimise the impact on economy and leverages were tested, but not full proof for sure. Following comes to mind (not in any particular order)
- reliance on China is a big one
- accumulation of gold reserves
- alternative to SWIFT
- russ sanctioned EU companies post Donbas 2014 to see how they react and dependence on russ market for EU exports
- Syria for a war perspective and preparedness
- fast implementation of NS2 to solidify leverage over EU
- O&G exports to US and Canada
- support of India