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One partial explanation would be election year funding for UPA. Dalals and PSU unions would be happy? Election funds?Mort Walker wrote:Some of the anti-Modi or anti-BJP tweets going around that need further explanation.
However, Finance Minister Piyush Goyal’s Budget speech, and a government statement released through the Press Information Bureau, treated the pension and MoD allocations as outside the defence Budget. By that count, the defence budget amounts to Rs 3.02 trillion.
Hello einsteinullahs:darshan wrote:One partial explanation would be election year funding for UPA. Dalals and PSU unions would be happy? Election funds?Mort Walker wrote:Some of the anti-Modi or anti-BJP tweets going around that need further explanation.
Remember he called out Wire magazine BS that BJP will lose 40 seats as stupid spreadsheet analysisVDPAssociates
@VDPAssociates
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Lok Sabha results will stun political pundits across India on May 23rd.Some states will give results no one imagined #LokSabhaElections2019
VDPAssociates
@VDPAssociates
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Apr 30
With it almost clear which way 2019 election is going can the next government be expected to focus on education sector which is almost in shambles? #LokSabhaElections2019
Exit poll?UlanBatori wrote:UBCN is also making similar claim. In fact MANY states, not just SOME states.
Lok Sabha results will stun political pundits across India on May 23rd. MANY states will give results no one imagined #LokSabhaElections2019
Mark our words!
After OROP, pensions are being brought out in a different head, not the defense budget, IIRC. That explains some of the apparent decline as a percentage.darshan wrote:One partial explanation would be election year funding for UPA. Dalals and PSU unions would be happy? Election funds?Mort Walker wrote:Some of the anti-Modi or anti-BJP tweets going around that need further explanation.
The keyword being partial. We have an overlap on that part. Many other explanations were already covered in different threads before when folks were battling out defense spending. My comment was mainly based on the particular year's coincidence with the election year.UlanBatori wrote:Hello einsteinullahs:darshan wrote: One partial explanation would be election year funding for UPA. Dalals and PSU unions would be happy? Election funds?
PLUS, 100% of the spending is going to benefit the warfighter, not the Seychelles bank account of 3-star-King RaGa&Mother Pvt. Ltd
https://m.republicworld.com/india-news/ ... clone-faniCentre orders release of Rs 1,086 crore to 4 states as advance assistance for cyclone 'Fani'.
Can BJP mount same campaign in Rae Bareli too? WHy not get rid of Chinese Gandhis from Parliament totally and sanitize it?
चौकीदार छोटे चौधरी
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BJP mounting strong campaign in Azamgarh..
Today Ram Vilas Paswan campaigning for Nirhua.. Anupriya Patel also active in constituency... All top BJP leaders spending nights..
Akal-less didn't expect this..
Akal-lessramana wrote:So who are the candidates in Azamgarh?
actor dinesh yadav (Nirahua) and akhilesh yadav.ramana wrote:So who are the candidates in Azamgarh?
Chintamani
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#ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in 14 UP constituencies in #Phase5 - Dhaurahra, Sitapur, Lucknow, Mohanlalganj, Barabanki, Kaiserganj, Bahraich, Gonda, Faizabad, Amethi, Raibareli, Kaushambi, Fatehpur, Banda.
BJP ahead in all of them. Yes, all of them.
In the 51 seats of Phase 5, I would expect NDA to have a rich haul of minimum 40 and quite possibly 45+ seats.hanumadu wrote:Chintamani
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#ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in 14 UP constituencies in #Phase5 - Dhaurahra, Sitapur, Lucknow, Mohanlalganj, Barabanki, Kaiserganj, Bahraich, Gonda, Faizabad, Amethi, Raibareli, Kaushambi, Fatehpur, Banda.
BJP ahead in all of them. Yes, all of them.
Is that a live interview? If it is not live. Then editing will do the trick.Shaktimaan wrote:I watched Pappu ji's interview on NDTV today. It was full of lies about Rafale etc, but Pappu himself has come a long way from that notorious interview with Arnab. He seemed confident and there was no fumbling.
We the People of India
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The dynasty extracted a huge price from India. It's now extracting a huge price from the Congress party. In well nurtured constituencies like Guna, they want to vote for the party, but won't do so only because of Pappu and Pappi.
I can certainly see Amethi turning saffron considering the charisma and hard work of the BJP candidate. Rae Bareli seems more of a numbers game + hard campaigning by BJP "stars". Will of course be great if Rae Bareli turns too. It helps that the incumbents in both seats have been total duds in their multiple terms as MPs.vijayk wrote:spoke too early …
https://zeenews.india.com/lok-sabha-gen ... 00506.html
BJP gets mission mode in Amethi and Raebareli
Excellent way to cover all your bases without saying anything specific.vijayk wrote:VDPAssociates
@VDPAssociates
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Lok Sabha results will stun political pundits across India on May 23rd.Some states will give results no one imagined #LokSabhaElections2019
VDPAssociates
@VDPAssociates
·
Apr 30
With it almost clear which way 2019 election is going can the next government be expected to focus on education sector which is almost in shambles? #LokSabhaElections2019
And right above that they show the fool looking like himself.It seems that BJP has prepared a foolproof plan to defeat Congress
I wonder how much overlap is there. WhatsApp is preferred medium to share but how much of direct or indirect content from other platforms being referenced on WhatsApp?Picklu wrote: I understand that twitter is less influencial than whatsapp but whatsapp remains and will remain more close and private compared to twitter.
Can BJP really afford to cede a space and allow a new axis of attack to develop?
What's so great about that tweet ? It's basically a tweet about tweeting. Twitter is already used widely for fratting. What's that ? Well here's a tweet about itPicklu wrote:An example of Con Bot army
https://twitter.com/callmeashu2017/stat ... 3892726786
I understand that twitter is less influencial than whatsapp but whatsapp remains and will remain more close and private compared to twitter.
Can BJP really afford to cede a space and allow a new axis of attack to develop?
Rishi Bagree and now TrueIndology are victims of this.“Fratting” is when paid troll groups organize off Twitter to time mass harassment. They then swarm the target, hoping to provoke any pushback. Then, they and a botnet send 1000s of reports of “abuse” - by the target. Twitter then suspends the account.
He said WB will be a stunner. He predicted TMC in his opinion polenachiket wrote:Excellent way to cover all your bases without saying anything specific.vijayk wrote:
If BJP comes back with higher seat count than 2014 - Stunning, no one imagined, but I predicted.
If BJP loses a whole bunch of seats and Thugbandhan wins - Political pundits stunned! No one imagined, but I predicted it.
If BJP loses seats but NDA manages to scrape thourgh - Still stunning! Unpredicatble, but this is what I meant in my tweet.
PP at least says exactly what he means on Twitter, regardless of whether you choose to believe him or not.
All I'm saying is there is no reason to be cryptic. People cannot post exit poll data or exact seat predictions. But there is nothing stopping him from saying that BJP will get a decisive verdict in their favor or they will sweep WB if he wants to. If that is what he means, he should say it without the wink-wink nudge-nudge that can be interpreted in any way.vijayk wrote: He said WB will be a stunner. He predicted TMC in his opinion pole
He trashed Wire when they tried to say BJP will lose 40-45 in UP based on caste count/2014 vote statistics/vote cutter analysis on spreadsheet.
In one tweet he said public will stun by giving decisive verdict? Is 20-30 party Non-alliance based on caste arithmetic a decisive verdict?
Of course actual capital expenditure trend over years will give the true picture, but the figures aren't any thing to write home about. Correct me if I'm wrong but the Arjun Mk1A has not actually been ordered, neither has Tejas Mk1. Also indigenous content has probably come down (I'm looking for the actual numbers, don't know if these are released) due to signing of massive importgiri deals like Rafale and S400 without equivalent desi ones.ramana wrote:Mort Walker wrote:Some of the anti-Modi or anti-BJP tweets going around that need further explanation.
We can rebut this quite effectively. For starters its NaMo govt that persuaded IA to order Arjun MK1A that the graphic uses scissors on the gun barrel.,
While your argument makes sense in isolation, I think we are being a little blinded by our own confirmation biases here. I took a quick look at the Indian Express front page yesterday. The news articles all describe 'Modi not censured for MCC violation; EC goes against arguments made by its own officials' . The details describe an EC exec committee meeting discussing successive poll code violation petitions against the PM, which were debated after after various positions were argued, decisions were made. That standard committee discussion is massaged as 'going against its own officials'.nachiket wrote:All I'm saying is there is no reason to be cryptic. People cannot post exit poll data or exact seat predictions. But there is nothing stopping him from saying that BJP will get a decisive verdict in their favor or they will sweep WB if he wants to. If that is what he means, he should say it without the wink-wink nudge-nudge that can be interpreted in any way.
TIMES NOW
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TIMES NOW EXCLUSIVE: Sensational claims by sleuths. Raids reveal top beneficiaries 'Surjewala and Digvijaya'.
Listen in to @RShivshankar and @navikakumar on #PollCashTrailConfession
General models are like that - differential/swing analysis on raw data to do predictions. With ML algos available, they can be further fine tuned. This all gives positive and ideal case results. Even large scale base shifts are okay as they can be modeled and analyzed in the same way.fanne wrote:BB has still the same risk that he had in the last assembly election. He is using Mapi, that has one fatal flaw - It assumes a solid base vote for each party (at booth level as he claims) and then based on some targeted opinion/exit poll at supposedly bell weather booths (bell weather from his model perspective), predict swing, adjust the base and predict who will win. In Chhattisgarh assembly election, what was base was wrong (as the base itself had shifted). No amount of swing would have accounted it (same was the reason of Rajasthan being wrong, MP from psephology wasn't wrong.).
This is good use of Machine learning/predictive analysis, but has his limitations. The model will only work, if the political situation is more or less static (as in base is intact) and swings are then measure. If I remember right, he started with 17% undecided voters in his Mapi (meaning 83% were accounted in respective party's base, I was a day late in accessing, undecided could have been bigger). I am not sure he has some triggers to account for base shift ( he got Bihar right, he saw perhaps large swing towards Lalu/Nitish than expected and in Bihar I suspect that time opposition base was bigger than BJP's).
That could be a flaw in his analysis in this election. Not sure how Savyasachi or Chintamani are doing their analysis (real exit interview?).
BB if doing a survey (I don't know how hw will confirm all 543 constituency) can at a very gross level confirm the base (The macro at top is not that).
Yadav said: “The Congress party has stood together with the individual, who got a CBI inquiry ordered against Netaji (Mulayam Singh Yadav) and his family for disproportionate assets. But look at our large-heartedness, we still spared two seats for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh.”
Shashi Tharoor must be training him these days.Shaktimaan wrote:I watched Pappu ji's interview on NDTV today. It was full of lies about Rafale etc, but Pappu himself has come a long way from that notorious interview with Arnab. He seemed confident and there was no fumbling.
