Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Feb 2014 16:03

saravanaji,
Modibhai has a problem communicating with people in non-hindi speaking states like TN.TN is an extreme example.Also the young students were going to modi rally,in an aimless sort of way drawn by vague rhetoric,if the article is to be believed and I have no reason to doubt it.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 20 Feb 2014 16:05

Sridhar wrote:There is no reason a complete rookie cannot say something sensible. And even on this thread, I doubt that anybody has spent as much effort on backing their posts with objective, credible and verifiable evidence as I have. Your post was unwarranted.

Sridhar ji,

your insistence on calling your dated data, good wishes & unjustified criticism, evidence is approaching Paki standards of calling J&K a root cause.

A highly successful man like NaMo feeds a sense of respect in the mango man like myself and in some other people who had greater desires (probably you) it can also engender a sense of competition. Request you too to keep it healthy, we all can go home safe and better understood.

Your HDI criticism makes use of only the parameters that are 'standard'. I would rather live with a lowly Gujarati HDI if the very same socio-cultural milieu also holds out a promise of some other lesser appreciated issues like 'crime against women'.

Unless you claim that HDI is solely a political issue while crime against women is a solely a social issue. In which case I can only laugh.

Would you deny it that all progress can only be measured only with respect to our own timelines. Doosre ki thali mein jhankne sey hamari sehat nahi ban ne wali.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 16:11

Ok, before I sign off for the night, let me present one more piece of evidence related to education, since somebody brought up education. An important metric that is tracked worldwide and in India regarding educational infrastructure is pupil teacher ratios (PTRs).

See the table on page 91 of this report - the data are based on a nationwide survey called DISE.
http://planningcommission.gov.in/aboutu ... ry1708.pdf

The numbers relate to the latter part of Modi's tenure - 2006 vs 2010.

The PTRs at the primary level for Gujarat for both years is marginally better than average at 35 vs. 38 in 2006 and 32 vs. 33 in 2010 (note that the 2010 numbers are much closer to the national average). But averages miss the state to state comparison pictures (since they are lowered by populous, bad-performing states) so let's look at ranks. In 2006, Gujarat was ranked 24th out of 35 states. What happened after 4 more years of Modi's rule? Gujarat dropped down to 26th out of 35 with only 8 states below it since Orissa was tied with it.

On the same metric for the upper primary level, Gujarat was below average in both years. In 2006, it was 26th out of 35, with Maharashtra tied with it so only 8 states were below it. His dropped to 27th in 2010. Note that this was with a below average, bottom quartile base to begin with.

So some people might argue that educational outcomes are not in the Government's control and that they have lags. Fair enough (though that is the case for everybody, so remember that argument when you make a case against somebody else). But what about educational infrastructure. In a key metric of educational infrastructure, Gujarat is one of the worst performers in the country and the trend relative to other states is downward.

So where is that positive evidence everybody is talking about. Provide me some fuel other than state gross domestic product (I will research those in detail as well).

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 16:13

Arjun,

Those are your metrics. The onus is on you to provide the data, not on me. I am putting in a lot of effort on the forum. Why don't you, the economics expert that you imply that you are, provide some data to back up something you are claiming.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 16:16

Once again you are questioning credentials,with the qualifications of whether I have indeed posted or not - implying that I might be lying. What certificate would you want me to provide your lordship before I can post something?

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Feb 2014 16:18

Sridharji,
You have made the claim that Narendra Modi fought the 2002 elections in a fundamentally dishonest and unethical way.I request you to go to the bottom of the issue.Education statistics from planning commission are tangential to the AAP thread.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 20 Feb 2014 16:25

^^ please drop the ji sir.
unless it was PVNR who can be silent in N languages it is an issue almost all national leaders have and had. TN is used to speeches being in Hindi with perfunctory "ellarkum vankam"!

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 16:27

Ravi_g,

Let's see what excuses you and others bring up. The data are dated (never mind that they span more than half his tenure and are the most recent data available)? What about the literacy data (ending in 2011) or the school infrastructure data above (ending in 2010)? Are they dated too? Why don't you try to find some more recent data? Oh, data don't matter. Only sentiments do. He may not be a development champion compared to other states, but we only benchmark against ourselves. Let's hear the rest of the arguments.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 20 Feb 2014 16:38

Sridhar wrote:Arjun,

Those are your metrics. The onus is on you to provide the data, not on me. I am putting in a lot of effort on the forum. Why don't you, the economics expert that you imply that you are, provide some data to back up something you are claiming.

Those are standard metrics used by any center-right economist...You are the one making revisionist claims that go against accepted wisdom. It is upto you to either disagree with my list of parameters or to present evidence that NaMo may not be the best candidate from the standpoint of any one of those parameters. ~~If you don't do either, you will need to stop trolling on this thread.~~

Arjun - No need to get into name calling bit. Let the moderators decide on this aspect. It only brings down the level of debate. Please be mindful of the same. - rohitvats.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 16:43

The mods will decide who is trolling, not you. Please stop the attacks in the meantime.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 20 Feb 2014 16:52

Sridhar wrote:The mods will decide who is trolling, not you. Please stop the attacks in the meantime.

Yes they will.

Let me state again that since you are the one challenging conventional wisdom you need to either (i) explain why you disagree with the list of parameters I have presented OR (ii) show that on the basis of these parameters Modi does not come out on top in comparison with other alternatives. This is straightforward logic. And yes, you would qualify as a troll, in my eyes, if you follow through on neither option.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 20 Feb 2014 17:01

Arjun wrote:
Sridhar wrote:The mods will decide who is trolling, not you. Please stop the attacks in the meantime.
Yes they will.

Let me state again that since you are the one challenging conventional wisdom you need to either (i) explain why you disagree with the list of parameters I have presented OR (ii) show that on the basis of these parameters Modi does not come out on top in comparison with other alternatives. This is straightforward logic. And yes, you would qualify as a troll, in my eyes, if you follow through on neither option.

So the T-bill gets passed in LS, people start blaming the BJP and NaMo. And overnight a bunch of 'Modi supporters' suddenly have a lot of contrarian positions and data besides questioning whether NaMo is the best or if he is being truthful.

Brings to mind the rather pointed question that another posted asked: were they really NaMo supporters in the first place? That conversation led to questioning and opinions on whether Hindus are built this way....and so on.

A pity!

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 17:03

Svenkat,

I said unethical. If it warrants it, I will surely explain why I think that was the case. In all honesty, I fail to see how anybody can see that election campaign as anything but unethical, but I cannot claim to know anybody else's logic or considerations. In any case, I won't shy away from a discussion on that, in due course.

But again, why does everybody presume that you can dictate what I post and what I don't and when? That is really up to me. What evidence has any of you provided for anything that I am the one always expected to dig up stuff for your benefit? Are you (by you I don't mean you personally but the collective you) even interested in looking at it objectively or are you predetermined to reject it whatever the evidence? For the record, I have given credit where it is due and not selectively given facts. For instance, I could have easily hidden the fact that the improvement in the health index is a redeeming feature in the analysis on HDI, but did not because it would be dishonest. Based on seeing posts on the forum including a recent one on this thread, I have seen that to be the norm. That is the level the forum, which used to, through a socially enforced but unwritten norm, train people to conduct cogent and forceful, but honest arguments backed by facts, has sunk to unfortunately. How I miss formidable opponents, who I disagreed with often but respected immensely, such as Kaushal and enqyoob. And the wisdom of Spinster. Where is the likes of Shiv? Or Imtiaz? Or Sainis? The only really old time heavyweight still posting prolifically and for whom I have immense respect is Ramana.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Feb 2014 17:22

I cant speak for others.I cannot dictate anything to you,Sridharji.We post what we want to.We seek what we are interested in.I have an interest in political aspects.Regarding economic indices,gas rates I have not done any debating with you at all.Theres a political slant in your posts.And I asked you to elaborate on something *you* said you had to share about modi.And these are primarily political threads.Please feel free to ignore this post.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 20 Feb 2014 17:26

Sridhar,
I request you to please summarize your stance into following categories:
a) Gujarath was developed before Modi.
b) Gujarath is not developed and Modi is wrong.
c) Guj is developed but not as developed as Modi claims.
d) Guj is developed but there are other developed states.
e) Guj is developed but not because of Modi.
f) Guj has good economic indicators but not impressive social indicators.
g) Others.

I have not followed the entire exchange between you and others but it seems like its rambling all over the place and is difficult to follow. Your posts that I have read seem to have started with the gas price issue raised by Fordri and from there to lotus not taking up the issue strongly and from there it went to Modi and then to opinions on his ethics and now the discussion seems to be about developmental claims of Guj. So, I feel the rambling nature is distracting. Please summarize your views, so that people can agree or disagree with you once they understand your stance properly. Having said that I don't understand why Modi is being discussed in Fordriwal thread? I can understand that these topics get intermixed but it seems that Fordriwal discussion has taken backseat in this exchange and the topic seems to have shifted to Modi and his PM candidature.

If you remember, I had initially agreed with you on gas prices issue. Anyway, it seems that there is already a report by a committee headed by YS which opposed the gas prices. So, the point is not whether lotus supports or opposes the present gas price situation but rather why they are not making a more visible campaign on this crucial and vote-catching issue. If the Fordriwal can do that, then certainly the lotus can also do that.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 17:33

JohneeG:

It is unfair to ask me to summarize all my posts. Are you asking anybody on any thread to do that? Lots of threads are long and ramble.

On why Modi is being discussed here, I raised the attention of the mods but it was the call of a mod to let this Modi related discussion run its course. Better still - why not rename the thread title? Its substantive content, even long before I started participating again, has nothing to do with the title.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 20 Feb 2014 17:44

Sridhar wrote:Ravi_g,

Let's see what excuses you and others bring up. The data are dated (never mind that they span more than half his tenure and are the most recent data available)? What about the literacy data (ending in 2011) or the school infrastructure data above (ending in 2010)? Are they dated too? Why don't you try to find some more recent data? Oh, data don't matter. Only sentiments do. He may not be a development champion compared to other states, but we only benchmark against ourselves. Let's hear the rest of the arguments.

Ok Sridhar ji here are the first few excuses I could figure

1) The data is dated because it was presented around 4 years back while the HDI lags behind the economic indicators. Merely because it is the only one available or even the latest available, does not mean it is not dated.

2) Rankings are a red herring because different areas have had different priorities. Hill states traditionally have sent many more of their kids (proportionately speaking) to schools compared to the states in the plains and those with higher tribal populations fall even later in the line.

3) The rankings also say nothing about the utility of the education being given. This is a specially important ametric because we have had a large number of well schooled english speaking even IIT educated thieves/idiots/unemployable people running around here (Add later - ie. in our country). Actually for me this is the most important tell. All we really need are a few good men the rest can all be given trade related education and that should be good enough to run a civilization. All else is bakwas. Asmita is for all practical purposes a Gujarati word now.

4) The Pupil Teacher Ratio is only a useless metric that gets quoted amongst educated elite. It makes little sense unless the Gross Enrollment Ratio and the Net Enrollment Ratio is also simultaneously read. Pg 151 of following report read with Pg 91 of your link
http://www.dise.in/Downloads/Publicatio ... cators.pdf
Accounting for populations sizes and traditions and investments and special cases (COIN supported states) you will find that beside Karnataka, Gujarat is the only worthwhile state that has managed to bump up the GER AND NER while pushing the PTR in the proper direction. Karnataka is better but then them Kanadigas voted Congress in based on a motivated report that got thrown out of the courts with the contempt it deserved. Shows exactly what is being taught in Karnataka.

5) Gujarat at no time sold the sabz-baag of education like AAP did (remember 500 schools!

). They are a pragmatic bunch of people who care for other things then more schools. We have had good number of schools in Kerala and look what happened there. It will pretty soon become a national security threat in exactly the manner the highly educated masses of Delhi became with Ford funded AAP.

.....................................

@Arjun ji,

Re. Data loss

Deleted to comply with Mod requirements as understood.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 20 Feb 2014 17:56

Long term trend. That is if you care at all.

http://www.india272.com/2013/11/19/dr-b ... e-hangout/

Literacy rate has improved more in Gujarat than the national improvement between 2001 and 2011. While the national improvement in literacy level was more than that in Gujarat between 1991 and 2001.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 20 Feb 2014 18:14

Was just thinking the disaster it would have been to listen to SS, LKA and gang and declare BJP PM candidate post assembly elections in Raj, MP, Chattisgarh etc. There would have been no time for the truth about Modi being sorted out and those dozens of mega rallies that he has made till now garnering a percent vote increase per rally figure wouldn't have been possible. He has been educating people on development and making them dream last 5 months or so..there would have been no time if he was not appointed in Sept. Now even people in remote areas are aware Modi is synonym for development.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Feb 2014 18:18

saravanaji,
I agree.What I was trying to convey is whether Narendrabhai can get across his development/nationalist/anti-corruption message to tamizh people? I have seen Ela ganesanjis fine oratory.But sometimes I wonder whether we require vaali,vairamuthu type writers,thinkers for BJP to break through multiple shibboleths,misconceptions.Cong started out in very different,distant times.They had very strong media/literary presence in olden days.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Feb 2014 18:48

Yawn. Those who attack NaMo should just answer this question - Who will you vote for/who do you want us to vote for, in the GE 2014?

All the other statements like 'we deserve better than 'least worst'' or 'who will change the system' etc. are all emotional appeals that hold no ground.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 20 Feb 2014 18:48

Rohit, There doesn't seem to be a way to enforce a systematic code for debate that allows for argument to be exchanged in a logical back-and-forth fashion. Sridhar makes a claim that goes against conventional thinking (" Modi is not the best candidate for PM from a standpoint of development"). I respond by presenting to him the key parameters on which to judge a candidate's suitability and ask him to back up his claim based on these parameters. It is now his turn to either challenge me on the selection of parameters, or alternatively present the data to backup his revisionist claims.

The definition of 'trolling' needs to take into account the rules for such a back-and forth argument - failing which I don't see how we can make progress in proceeding towards a systematic conclusion in any of these various threads....I do think that's something to chew on.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 18:55

Let's take the gross enrollment ratio. Gujarat started below average in 2005/06 at 100.3 vs. 103.8. And stayed below average in 2008/09 at 107.7 vs 115.3. In other words, GER increased at a rate below the national average. The net enrollment ratio has a similar picture. It went from 78.9 to 86.0 during this period vs a national average of 84.5 to 98.6.

Coming to the literacy performance that Debroy talks about. The growth rate in literacy rates between 2001 and 2011 in Gujarat is indeed very marginally higher than the national average (12.87% for Gujarat vs. 12.65% for India). But what he doesn't say is that Gujarat's growth rate is ranked 15th among the states, and this despite a lower than average and lower than potential growth in the previous decade. Its absolute ranking on the absolute literacy levels actually dropped from 16th best out of 35 to 18th best out of 35, i.e. Below the median.

Are these really evidence of stellar performance. Would you even give it a satisfactory grade?

Check the census figures page 46 for the state wise data.

http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011censu ... pter-3.pdf

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 19:03

Arjun,

Get the basics of a debate right. You bring up some measures with a self-professed claim of those being the legitimate ones and others being revisionist. If you so desire, present the data for what you think are the relevant measures. You don't get to decide what I should or should not talk about. And to name call if I don't adhere to your script. You have the full freedom to withdraw and not present anything, or refute anything I say. As long as you don't name call and don't violate other forum rules. This seems simple enough, and may I add, the only logical way any debate or discussion can proceed.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Feb 2014 19:04

Sridhar wrote: Coming to the literacy performance that Debroy talks about. The growth rate in literacy rates between 2001 and 2011 in Gujarat is indeed very marginally higher than the national average (12.87% for Gujarat vs. 12.65% for India). But what he doesn't say is that Gujarat's growth rate is ranked 15th among the states, and this despite a lower than average and lower than potential growth in the previous decade. Its absolute ranking on the absolute literacy levels actually dropped from 16th best out of 35 to 18th best out of 35, i.e. Below the median.

Are these really evidence of stellar performance. Would you even give it a satisfactory grade?

Check the census figures page 46 for the state wise data.

http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011censu ... pter-3.pdf

Sridhar-ji,
Finding some of your data interesting, but I have one question. Do you know if the migration rates and/or absolute figures of migrations to and from states are monitored anywhere?

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 19:14

If you are looking at things like gross enrollment and net enrollment, most of the migrants have families back home in their own states. Not in Gujarat, right? So won't the migrants issue be irrelevant for these measures? As for the one measure where it can make a difference - literacy rates - let's look at what data is there. I am not 100% sure whether there is a breakdown by migrant status (or proxies for that) in the data tables, but it can likely be found through the micro data (that need to be purchased). That said, what do you think are comparable states wrt number of migrants. We could compare within that set of states.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Feb 2014 19:23

Sridhar wrote:If you are looking at things like gross enrollment and net enrollment, most of the migrants have families back home in their own states. Not in Gujarat, right?

Not necessarily. I do not mean this as an insult, but my own experiences in Bangalore was that Tamil and Telugu labourers (these were the poorest of the poor from Rayalseema and northern TN and did jobs like construction work, farm labour, etc which the richer locals did not want) moved with their families, and their kids never went to school. They accounted for a substantial segment of the population in Bangalore and adjoining areas.

As for the one measure where it can make a difference - literacy rates - let's look at what data is there. I am not 100% sure whether there is a breakdown by migrant status (or proxies for that) in the tables, but it can likely be found through the micro data (that need to be purchased). That said, what do you think are comparable states wrt number of migrants. We could compare within that set of states.

Happy to debate this with you over the weekend. I am rushing to finish a conference paper today and tomorrow, but I will sit down over the weekend and let us see where the illiteracy is coming from. If it is a migrant problem, then it is hard to solve. But if it is Gujaratis themselves whose literacy rates are not rising fast enough, then there is something Modi should be worried about.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 20 Feb 2014 19:29

Sridhar wrote:Let's take the gross enrollment ratio. Gujarat started below average in 2005/06 at 100.3 vs. 103.8. And stayed below average in 2008/09 at 107.7 vs 115.3. In other words, GER increased at a rate below the national average. The net enrollment ratio has a similar picture. It went from 78.9 to 86.0 during this period vs a national average of 84.5 to 98.6.

Coming to the literacy performance that Debroy talks about. The growth rate in literacy rates between 2001 and 2011 in Gujarat is indeed very marginally higher than the national average (12.87% for Gujarat vs. 12.65% for India). But what he doesn't say is that Gujarat's growth rate is ranked 15th among the states, and this despite a lower than average and lower than potential growth in the previous decade. Its absolute ranking on the absolute literacy levels actually dropped from 16th best out of 35 to 18th best out of 35, i.e. Below the median.

Are these really evidence of stellar performance. Would you even give it a satisfactory grade?

Check the census figures page 46 for the state wise data.

http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011censu ... pter-3.pdf

If what you say is right then it does indicate a problem but you give no detail about the cause and without knowing the cause how are you questioning the motive of the Gujarat government ??? There might be very well a legitimate reason for this fall in rank like due to influx of migrants into Gujarat.

Though I see no major problem as you are painting it to be, given the size of Gujarat 86.3% urban and 71.7% rural literacy level is good.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 20 Feb 2014 19:30

Sridhar, my reply here

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 19:31

The Bibek Debroy interview linked by Ravi_g above is a classic example of why it is best to go back to the original data sources and do your own analysis. It involves effort (I had to key in the numbers in a spreadsheet manually) but otherwise there is no rocket science in it. Now the question is why is Bibek Debroy so economical with the truth? Does he say anywhere that Gujarat has dropped in the rankings and has dropped from being in the top half of the country in 2001 to being in the bottom half in 2011? Why don't our media ask these simple questions that took only 15 mins of effort? Why has not a single journalist pointed out that the Rangarajan committee explicitly excludes Reliance from its price recommendation not once but thrice in the report but the Government went ahead and included it anyway? Why didn't the YS committee question it?

You have to wonder whether there is anybody at all in the media batting for India. Many think they are, but are they really? Even if the intentions are good, are they putting in even a half hearted effort?

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 20 Feb 2014 19:54

Sridhar:

Your posts deserve nothing but contempt. As they say lies, damn lies and statistics.

You are convinced about something and want to create straw men to burn it.

If you want to have a true comparison and want to dig into data here are some parameters:

=> How much money did the Modi govt. from the UPA ruled center during his tenure compared to other Congress passand states?

=> For the states which improved, how much could be attributed to government effort or how much to private initiative & foreign money (Church funded NGOs & schools)?

=> In the population blurb which matters (i.e. the children who are supposed to go to school), what is the enrollment and the change in drop-out rates? I can run an adult-education camp, teach a 30 yr old to write his name and start counting him as literate. It is an irrelevant figure.

=> What is the total percentage of immigrant population and what are their educational levels?

Be careful burning strawmen; some day your own house will be on fire.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 20 Feb 2014 19:55

Sridhar wrote:Get the basics of a debate right. You bring up some measures with a self-professed claim of those being the legitimate ones and others being revisionist. If you so desire, present the data for what you think are the relevant measures. You don't get to decide what I should or should not talk about. And to name call if I don't adhere to your script. You have the full freedom to withdraw and not present anything, or refute anything I say. As long as you don't name call and don't violate other forum rules. This seems simple enough, and may I add, the only logical way any debate or discussion can proceed.

Sridhar, I can see you don't believe in a systematic top-down approach to looking at issues. No-one is looking to shut anyone out of a reasoned debate here. As a matter of fact, I am asking you to present your case for disagreeing with my parameters if that is indeed what you want to do, before we delve into the data. But you have consistently refused to constructively engage and either agree or disagree with my list - and instead focus on jumping to the next step and demand that I present data on these parameters. None of us out here has the time for spoonfeeding - a simple Google search should present to you all the evidence that you need. As the person who has had a pathological interest in trying to prove that conventional wisdom is wrong - it is upto you to spend the time and come up with counters to the data that is widely known. Are you actually telling me that you are not aware that -

1. Gujarat has been among the top few performers in state GDP growth over the past decade. How do the other contenders compare to Modi in terms of either performance or stated intention on this front ?
2. Infrastructure development (power, roads, water...). Gujarat's performance on these fronts (especially power) is widely known. How does this compare with Congress / AAP intention or methods or performance ?
3. Ease of Doing business.Gujarat ranked top state in economic freedom. What has been the comparative performance or intention expressed by either Congress or AAP ?
4. Job creation. Gujarat has been among the leading states, if not the best, in industry jobs created. How does this compare to Congress track record or AAP's stated focus ?

I can go on about the other parameters I had listed. But enough spoonfeeding. Lets start with these to begin with and proceed to your rebuttal.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 19:59

SagarG

You want to talk about cause or rather the Government's input in the educational output. I have given on the other thread a measure of Government input. That is the statistic on pupil teacher ratio. There are other factors in Government input for sure, nor is it my claim that this is a perfect measure. But it is one for which we have readily available data across time and across states, and one that is used across the world, FWIW. It is an aggregate measure of how much is being invested in educational infrastructure - schools and teachers in particular. For both primary and upper primary, the ratio is worse for Gujarat than the rest of the country and trend over time is also worse than the national average. There might be other measures for measuring Government's intent to change educational outcomes for the better. We should figure out what those are and see if there is any data on those. I am not an expert on this, but am seeking information as well. (For details and links to primary data sources, see my posts there).

Now, about the problem. May point is not that literacy levels is a problem (though I think it is and is in good measure due to government neglect of certain parts of the state and certain segments of the population over decades, particularly the STs). My point in all this analysis on that thread is to figure out whether the claims being made are correct or not. The claim is that Modi brought about a revolution in development. The question is on what measures? On key measures of education and even income, the performance is sub-par. It is downright appalling in the case of education on multiple measures. Health is the only redeeming feature, but that too only in terms of differences over time. The absolute measures are still not great. This is an important question since the one thing on which Modi makes his case at the national level is his developmental record in Gujarat over the last decade. The solid credentials that people here talk about. The claim needs to be scrutinized using hard data, not anecdotes of how there is an improvement on such and such front.

manju · Post by **manju** » 20 Feb 2014 20:07

Sridhar wrote:If you are looking at things like gross enrollment and net enrollment, most of the migrants have families back home in their own states. Not in Gujarat, right? So won't the migrants issue be irrelevant for these measures? As for the one measure where it can make a difference - literacy rates - let's look at what data is there. I am not 100% sure whether there is a breakdown by migrant status (or proxies for that) in the data tables, but it can likely be found through the micro data (that need to be purchased). That said, what do you think are comparable states wrt number of migrants. We could compare within that set of states.

Wrong!
Many people move with families and I have seen this firsthand. How many, I dont know (cannot give reference).

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 20 Feb 2014 20:09

You have to see the overall picture. No body is giving Modi 100/100 on every parameter nor is anyone claiming he turned Gujrat into a Japan. If you take a median he has been one of the visionary and performing CMs in the country.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 20:10

Arjun,

If you think presenting your case is spoon feeding, I am am afraid you have no idea about how a discussion proceeds. What exactly are the data on the basis of which the claims you have listed are made? Indulge me, if that is what you think it will amount to, and provide the evidence. If it is all somewhere point me to the specific source. Like I just demonstrated, there is a ton of crap out there which is misleading or downright false. Just asking somebody to go google it is both useless (any search will throw up tons of stuff with contradictory information) and is typically a way to shirk the discussion, Regarding misleading or false information, Bibek Debroy's interview is an example. Show me concrete, credible, verifiable evidence, and we can have a discussion. Or withdraw from it if you want to.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 20 Feb 2014 20:12

svenkat wrote:saravanaji,
I agree.What I was trying to convey is whether Narendrabhai can get across his development/nationalist/anti-corruption message to tamizh people? I have seen Ela ganesanjis fine oratory.But sometimes I wonder whether we require vaali,vairamuthu type writers,thinkers for BJP to break through multiple shibboleths,misconceptions.Cong started out in very different,distant times.They had very strong media/literary presence in olden days.

svenkat sir, again I insist, please drop the ji.
I believe there is this Thamizharuvi Manian who has impressive skills in the tradition of Tamil political oratory, though I am not a big fan of this style. He has been writing in magazines, giving interviews to impress upon TN people.
I read Ela Ganesan's speech in Thuglaq though I haven't heard him speak. He comes across as a very witty and effective speaker.
The patronage system ensured that DMK hogged the most of the writers, poets and speakers. But I gather that due to neglect DMK has lost quite a bit of their orators.
But yeah I agree, the typical street corner fire and brimstone style of *MK parties is difficult to compete against. All the translations in the World can't match that. Vaiko is playing footsie now but once he comes inside the tent, then his speeches can be quite effective.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 20:15

VikramS wrote:Arjun

Stop wasting time with Naxal sympathizers. That Congress is the team B of AAP is in no doubt.
This is a classic FUD campaign where some data is cherry-picked. Doubt he gets the concept of a systemic top down approach.

When I pointed out how drop out rates have collapsed thanks to toilets, he calls it Modi propaganda.

This Sridhar dude reminds me of keyboard warriors. Has very little understanding of the issues which affect the common people, their aspirations, and the systemic change happening in Gujarat to address those problems.

He has completely ignored the percentage of migrants in Gujarat and their contribution to lower numbers. But he will pick up some stat in some report and create an entire Burning-Man out of it.

Classic AAP, shoot & scoot.

Instead of again violating forum rules by doing a personal attack and name calling, why don't you prove me wrong? Why don't you present data to show that migrants negate all the points related to education. Oh, you probably don't have any data at all and won't provide it either. Who is doing the shoot and scoot here, someone just firing missiles and running away, or somebody painstakingly looking through the data (at he moment, I seem to be the only one here).

bTW, there is an ongoing discussion on the issue of migrants, and it is not over yet. So hold the judgement,

Also, you claim that I called the dropout rates Modi propaganda. Where?

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 20 Feb 2014 20:16

Sridhar wrote:Neela,
You had pointed to his being elected. That was irrelevant. I agree that this is not any evidence of being a development champion because otherwise Laloo should qualify. Now you are saying that there are other metrics. So provide them, so that all of us can reduce our confirmatory biases. Deal?

You misunderstood.
Being elected 3 times + development efforts must be seen together. You are isolating causes and effects.
In other words, Modi has been re-elected and the state has shown improvements across several development parameters. The same cannot be said of Laloo , who incidentally has been convicted and went to jail. He cannot contest until 2019.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 20 Feb 2014 20:20

manju wrote:
Sridhar wrote:If you are looking at things like gross enrollment and net enrollment, most of the migrants have families back home in their own states. Not in Gujarat, right? So won't the migrants issue be irrelevant for these measures? As for the one measure where it can make a difference - literacy rates - let's look at what data is there. I am not 100% sure whether there is a breakdown by migrant status (or proxies for that) in the data tables, but it can likely be found through the micro data (that need to be purchased). That said, what do you think are comparable states wrt number of migrants. We could compare within that set of states.
Wrong!
Many people move with families and I have seen this firsthand. How many, I dont know (cannot give reference).

Until you get a hard number, it is neither here or there.