News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

[CRamS]

Surinder: In answer to your question, watch this if you haven't already.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline ... bin-laden/

At around 19-20 mins, the reporter asks Steve Coll the very question on all our minds: why is the GOTUS, even after May 2nd, unwilling to confront TSP on its duplicity? The answer Coll gives, I think, is close to the right one for the majority of the US government. The right answer for the Brzezinski types is of course something else altogether.

I watched this, and I find this bull crap: TSP is too big to risk failure, another piece of US bogus disinformation and professing of helplessness. Give me a break. They sent in a bunch of commandos right under Paki army noses. That wan't risky?

IMO, Steve Coll gives it away for those of us who understanding the strategic value of TSP to US. A failed emaciated TSP with no nukes means is in everybody's interests. Why not? You guessed it, SDREs get to keep their nukes? Noooooooo!!!!

[CRamS]

Hence Pakistan is engaged in subtle nuclear blackmail vis a vis the US and open nuclear blackmail vis a vis India. And nobody in the USG or GOI has the ba**s to do anything about it. Every one is kicking the can down the road.

I don't accept that. If US wants to, it can take TSP nukes out in a heartbeat. And I am sure they know the precise location of every crown jewel that TSP has.

[Johann]

Johann,

One of the big mysteries to me is why did OBL stay on in Afghanistan-Pakistan post 9/11. While he was persona non grata in KSA, he could have slipped into Yemen and even into the southwestern part of KSA through the porous borders both into Yemen and then into KSA. There was an enormous amount of sympathy for him in those parts even in the immediate aftermath of 9/11....he could have lived with the Bedouins for years and nobody would have been wiser.

As a refuge it would have been infinitely safer. The only answer I can think off is that as a base to carry on his jihad in terms of communication and direction, the Afghanistan-Pakistan base was superior.

L Dev,

Bin Laden once said in an interview that Yemen was his second choice after Af-Pak. There were two major reasons;

- Bin Laden didn't trust the PA/ISI, but he feared the Saudi state far more. The number of areas outside Saudi intelligence reach in Yemen is far smaller than in Af-Pak.

- Af-Pak had a fare more developed jihadi infrastructure than Yemen. The number and size of of pro-Salafi tanzims, madrasas, mosques, ulema, etc meant that he had a lot of people he could deploy as a deterrent. This was Bin Laden's insurance against betrayal by the state (important after his experience in Sudan), and it did work. The Pakistanis did not betray him.

- The only place that could have been big enough and secure enough for him to move to was the Sunni triangle (esp Al-Anbar) in Iraq after the US invasion. The success of the surge and the tribal 'Sunni Awakening' killed that hope.

[James B]

[Johann]

Hence Pakistan is engaged in subtle nuclear blackmail vis a vis the US and open nuclear blackmail vis a vis India. And nobody in the USG or GOI has the ba**s to do anything about it. Every one is kicking the can down the road.

I don't accept that. If US wants to, it can take TSP nukes out in a heartbeat. And I am sure they know the precise location of every crown jewel that TSP has.

The US couldn't even simultaneously take out Bin Laden and Zawahiri, or Mullah Omar and Haqqani; how could they be sure enough of the numbers and locations to simultaneously take out 100+ weapons through SOF strikes and bombings?

Sounds like magical thinking to me. America is powerful, but not omniscient or omnipotent.

The only way they could be sure would be to nuke every single seriously suspected location, and America hasn't nuked anyone since August 1945.

[CRamS]

Johann:

How did the Israelis take out Saddam's nukes?

I mean, lets get real here. Nukes are not like cluseter bombs. They need a delivery system, and they have got to be integrated with the larger military hardware like aiirplanes, missiles etc. And you are telling me US does not know where all this infrastructure is? And tell me, even if some jihadi gets hold of some fissile material from TSP, what is he going to do with it? Is it that easy to build a nuke suitcase bomb and put it in the heart of a city? I mean this scary scenarios just don't add up to me.

A few B-52 raids on TSP nuke sites will bring the b#$%^rds to their knees. Thats for sure.

[Johann]

CRS,

I don't understand the comparison.

Saddam did not have a single working nuke in 1981 - the Osirak reactor hadn't even been fuelled yet - that was the whole point of the Israeli raid.

Pakistan has actual weapons. They also have ballistic missiles.

The US has conducted covert raids to snatch people from hostile countries before. It has never attempted what you are suggesting. No one has, and for good reason.

Keep in mind - if your nuclear forces come under attack you must either use them or lose them.

Unless the US can guarantee getting every single one of the warheads and bombs within a few scant hours, the PA is likely to launch whatever they didnt get the targets they can reach - US forces in Afghanistan, or even more likely, India.

Consider just how severe, and thus limited the circumstances would have to be before the US, or *any* country, including Israel, would find it worth taking such enormous risks.

[Sanku]

And tell me, even if some jihadi gets hold of some fissile material from TSP, what is he going to do with it? Is it that easy to build a nuke suitcase bomb and put it in the heart of a city? I mean this scary scenarios just don't add up to me.

A few B-52 raids on TSP nuke sites will bring the b#$%^rds to their knees. Thats for sure.

True, its as easy as that.

[CRamS]

Johann,

I wish I could locate it, but I read the analysis of a former CIA agent on rediff post 26/11, that US will thwart any launch of Paki nukes against India. Do you believe him? Assuming he is right, it does appear to me that US knows pretty much every location, operational aspect of TSP nukes and they can either make them disfunctional or take them out.

I forgot to ask you this, and please be honest. If last week, I or anybody had suggested a navy seal commando raid by US deep in the heart of TSP army towns, would you have not laughed me off saying exactly the same thing: TSP has nukes, very risky and US has never attempted that etc? Yet, US pulled it off with clinical precision leaving TSP's H&D in tatters. And has TSP been able to brandish its crown jewels in response?

[Johann]

CRS,

The US can use its significant diplomatic leverage if Pakistan is sabre-rattling against India.

In any actual attack on Pakistan's nukes, all bets are off as far as physically preventing every launch.

As for a single commando raid on a single target in Pakistan - I would have had said yes, because of what the US has been doing in Pakistan since the summer of 2008, and because of what it has done elsewhere in the past.

If you remember I've been saying that the US is steadily escalating its secret war in Pakistan, to which your response has generally been 'its not serious, call me when they really go after the LeT'. Even before the Raymond Davis crisis broke, it was in the air (I dont just mean word of mouth, but the well-connected but offbeat media of both left and right) that JSOC was operating in Pakistan, not to mention the CIA's paramilitary forces (both US and Afghan nationals).

During the Son Tay raid in 1970, SOG (the precursor to JSOC) flew in to some of the most heavily defended airspace in the world - and landed choppers in a PoW camp the heart of North Vietnam and flew out without a single casualty. The Americans have done other things like that have never made any headlines.

Nukes (and not pre-production nuclear infrastructure) however, are a different story. Think about North Korea for a second - do you think the Americans, especially in the Bolton-Rumsfeld years didn't seriously consider every single military option?

[Johann]

Let me add something else- back in 2008 when William McRaven took command of JSOC, I said something brash here, something that I almost immediately regretted.

I said the McRaven was 'a real gunslinger', and that we would finally see results in the hunt for Al Qaeda's leadership.

If I remember correctly, someone (Shiv, was it you?) said rather scornfully that no matter how many 'gunslingers' America put out there, its trust of Pakistan would foil any and every attempt to catch OBL.

I bit my lip at that point, but I think events vindicate what I said, and why. American trust in Pakistan finally gave way at the highest levels, and the change of command reflected the more aggressive kind of operations the US was thus willing to undertake.

[VikramS]

I had almost started a new thread on the issue of what it would take tactically to de-nuke TSP. However, I realized that before any tactics could be discussed, the strategic ground-work needs to be done.


IMHO, of the P5 it is only China which *may* have a reservation in de-nuking TSP. The rest of the P5 would rather have a fissile free TSP than a TSP with nukes, IF they have a way of doing it without risking a blow back.

For China to come aboard a few things have to happen.

1. The realization that TSP in its current form is too unstable to serve as a viable commercial transit lane to the Gulf or Central Asia.
2. That any more sleeping with TSP will more or less push India in to the arms of other super powers. This does not necessarily mean the US only. It also includes Russia. In the really big picture the interests of the US and the Russians are not diverging as much as they used to, especially when it comes to China.
3. That unstable TSP may eventually come to haunt parts of China too via the Jehadi bug.

If China does come to the table, it will require some guarantees of a significant role in shaping the post-nuke TSP which accommodates here core commercial interests. However, if China is at the table, the tasks become much easier. The towel will be thrown.


Suppose China does not come to the table, can the rest of the world bypass China and go ahead? While China has provided vital support to TSP, when it comes to putting boots on the ground, especially when it comes to Indo-TSP issues, China has so far been reluctant whether it was 71 or Kargil.

However, before China backs down, it has to be convinced that the rest of the world is serious. This may take other forms, but nothing beats a massive show of force. i am talking AT LEAST half a million men ready to take on the TSP with participants from the P4 + RSA+ Brazil + Aussies + NATO + Nordics + Japanese + SoKo etc. Essentially who ever matters in the free world.

The actual snatch will require a massive search and steal operation with overwhelming display of available power to neutralize any resistance. It may require networked gieger counters at every crossing and bazaar of TSP, and QRTs within minutes of the scene of the crime.

Denuking of course will have to be a precursor to de-martialising the TSP society. This is a much longer term project but something which needs to be done to prevent a slide.

This is where the Iran-Shia-bomb also comes in.

BTW, I think the reason the rest of the world will gang up on TSP is that they perhaps realize, that it is just a matter of time before the fissile material gets lost. The Japanese earthquake and the aftermath has highlighted that you do not need a nuclear explosion to cause havoc. Just the release of fissile material can make a place unusable for generation.

I can not imagine the economic impact of Manhattan or London or Tokya being rendered unlivable thanks to Paki Plutonium which fell from a truck when being transported. And I would not be surprised if the Pakis themselves pull this stunt off just to keep themselves relevant.

The Kicking the Can down the road will eventually come to an end. TSP is in a mad rush to produce more fissile material and the longer the wait is, the worse the situation becomes.

[shiv]

Let me add something else- back in 2008 when William McRaven took command of JSOC, I said something brash here, something that I almost immediately regretted.

I said the McRaven was 'a real gunslinger', and that we would finally see results in the hunt for Al Qaeda's leadership.

If I remember correctly, someone (Shiv, was it you?) said rather scornfully that no matter how many 'gunslingers' America put out there, its trust of Pakistan would foil any and every attempt to catch OBL.

Unlikely Johann. I have never been very interested in the US's hunt for Osama and tend to lose interest rapidly when I hear names like JSOC or US election primaries or some internal US restructuring.

For example I found Rudradev's initial post very thought provoking even if I had some quibbles, but when the talk turned to Wilsonian, Jeffersonian etc - I am essentially out of reckoning as a person who can add to the discussion.

[RajeshA]

Rudradev ji,

You have a fan in me! With every post of yours, I see my fandom justified! This is such a fast moving thread, I feel I coming a bit late to the revelations party!

OBL was never an enemy of India, except in the broadest ideological sense. Just because he became the poster-boy of "dangerous Islamism" for the west, we do ourselves a disservice by adopting that image wholesale and applying it to an Indian context where it is not at all relevant.

Indeed, I believe the presence of OBL in our subcontinental neighbourhood was in fact a net gain for India. Let me explain why.

Rudradev ji,

I too hold the view, and since a long time, that Al Qaeda's war footprint is still relatively small with respect to the potential in India, or for that matter even in neighboring Bangladesh - there is immense poverty and backwardness amongst the Indian Muslims, with a virtual hold of the ulema in India over them. And still there is no open war with the Kufr! In comparison to the war being waged by Al Qaeda against USA, Israel and may be even against KSA and Iraqi Shias, India has been pretty much off the radar of Al Qaeda.

It is ISI that has been trying to bring Kashmir into the Global Jihad Movement, while Al Qaeda has at the most given it only fleeting attention!

Not too long ago, while speculating in a different context, I wrote in a post

Al Qaeda, IMHO, may have sent out a few anti-Indian messages, in order to tap in into the Pakistanis native enmity against India, but my feeling is that it has been pretty much hands off in their approach to India. That however is here beside the point.

The question I was posing, was whether Al Qaeda and Associated Movements, whether Muslim Brotherhood, take the side of the Sunni Gulf monarchies, or twist this as another betrayal by them by aligning with the Great Satan, and take the side of Iran and the Arab Shias. If it is the latter, then one could see the TTP and JeM and others increasing their destabilization of Pakistan. The Gulf War would come to Pakistan and not just through the Shia-Sunni schism but through the Wahhabi schism as well.

Perhaps some gurus here would like to speculate on the position of Al Qaeda on this coming war.

The event is shrouded in mystery.

Could the US have conducted the raid without any knowledge of the TSPA/ISI top-brass? Unlikely.

However awesome the stealth helicopters, the NAVY seals, the high-tech jamming gear etc... there were just too many things that could have gone wrong with a purely unilateral operation, for Washington to risk it. From JSOC choppers getting shot down, to a fire-fight in urban Pakistan including civilian collateral damage, to the mistaken launch of a Pakistani nuke against India. Just too many unpredictable outcomes to consider, if the US had actually "gone it alone."

BUT BUT BUT... if Pakistan AGREED to let the US snatch OBL, why did they not bargain for a more H&D-saving facade? Why did they not insist that OBL be "found in the border regions of Afghanistan" rather than the very embarrassing location of Abbotabad? Why did they not angle for more recognition of their cooperative role so that they could get generous baksheesh in reward from the US Congress? Why did they submit to a raid that makes them look so very bad, in terms of H&D, and in terms of casting suspicion on their role in harbouring OBL all these years? Why did they let SEALS cart away incriminating evidence from the location instead of delivering Bin Laden to the Americans on their own terms?

There is only one possible answer: the Pakis may have agreed to let the US snatch OBL on such humiliating terms because... the only alternative available to the Pakis was WORSE. Unkil has something so damaging to the Pakis, that he was able to threaten them with it, and dictate the terms of how the OBL raid was going to go... or else.

What is that "WORSE" thing? I don't know.

I have a suspicion that it might revolve around two trials currently taking place in the US, though. The trial of Tawwahur Hussein Rana in Chicago; and the trial in NY where the families of American 26/11 victims are suing the Pakistan Army and ISI. Things which could have come out in those trials and become public information, may have been even more damaging to Pakistan than the mere fact of OBL hiding in Abbotabad all these years.

Rudradev ji,

Most of the reports of Pakistanis being somehow involved in Operation Geronimo came from the Pakistani side, where they were claiming that Pakistanis switched off electricity to the area, or Pakistani personnel were deployed on the street to secure it. It was a weak effort by Pakistanis to show that they were involved. The Americans on the other hand disputed any involvement of the Pakistanis in the Operation.

Regarding ISI having decided to sell off OBL, I very much doubt it! You have already gone into many reasons, but OBL was instrumental in keeping some control of the Jihad tiger. Pakistan primary business model was to ride the Jihad tiger, a very risky proposition. OBL was supposed to be Pakistan's reigns on the Jihadi tiger, some means of controlling it, some means of steering it. OBL was not simply for the purpose of inciting Jihad in Kashmir, which he probably did hesitatingly. OBL was Pakistan's trump card for staying in business with Islamic elements far far radical than the whiskey-slurping make-belief-TFTA generals of GHQ! OBL was Pakistan's trump card in keeping the West financially supportive of Pakistan. With OBL's death, that card has weakened substantially. Here is another post perhaps relevant to the topic!

Seeing the gutter into which Pakistan is moving into day by day, the Kashmiris are not all too awed by Pakistan or Pakjabis.

However having Osama bin Laden as their guest, giving the Emir of Al Qaeda their protection and shelter, gave the Pakistani Ghazis some added stature. Osama bin Laden had brought the highest edifices of American power down to the ground on 9/11. He was somebody worthy of respect and awe! The Pakis on the other hand have been failures all their lives!

What Pakistan was doing, was to use OBL's aura and charisma for their own ends as honey to attract the attention and indulgence of jihadis from everywhere, including from Kashmir, which was Pakistan's favorite core issue!

The Separatists in Kashmir Valley were genuinely in awe of OBL and Al Qaeda and looked at both for inspiration and guidance!

We have all been wondering what was the attraction of Pakistan! How can Pakistan have such power over jihadis from all over the world! There are a few reasons:

1. Pakistan was home to Osama bin Laden - the King of Jihad!
2. Pakistan had the best education system for jihadism in the world - the terror infrastructure!
3. There are American crusaders next door in Afghanistan to fight against!
4. Radicalized Pakistani diaspora in West, esp. in UK would naturally tend to come to Pakistan

But Pakistani Army control over Jihad Inc. came, in my opinion, from Osama bin Laden's presence. Since the Pakistani Army controlled Osama, they controlled Jihad Inc. The Pakistani Army was milking the cow to the last drop!

Without Osama bin Laden, Pakistani Army control over the militants is over! At least there would be no awe anymore amongst the jihadists for the Pakistani Army!

I believe we in India now have an opportunity to do something about the Islamists in Kashmir! First step would be to cut the umbilical cord between Kashmiri separatists and Pakistani Army!

The TTP has declared an end to their peace with Pakistani Army. From an Islamist point of view, so too could the Kashmiri Jihadis! Of course due to logistics, they would not do it! But can the Kashmiri Islamists remain stuck to the Pakistani Army when all other Islamist Jihadi outfits in Pakistan rise up against the Pakistani Army? It would not seem right!

One should also consider that amongst themselves the Kashmiris, the Pakjabis, the Pushtuns, they all have a certain racial contempt for the other! It is the presence of an Ashraf that really bridges their contempt for the other! And there was no better Ashraf than the Emir of Al Qaeda!

Now some other Ashraf would have to become an international icon, both feared and hated by the biggest Crusader, before the Subcontinental Ajlafs become enamored by him, and his charisma is able to overcome their mutual contempt.

What India has to ensure is to prevent any Islamist in the Subcontinent to become an iconic figure! All jihadis should die a quiet lonely death without too much fanfare or media circus around them either when they are alive or when they die!

I just don't think, the Pakistanis really sold off their trump card!

[Lalmohan]

the fact that the wives and others didn't get lifted out indicates strongly that the american version of events is closer to the truth. if it had been stage managed, they would have been lifted too

the fact remains that the US pulled off a behind the lines smash and grab raid deep inside hostile territory

[manjgu]

@ldev... on ur theory of mumbai dons not spending 2 nights at the same location.

the reason for that was they were in hostile territory with police/rival gangs looking for them.

OBL under ISI/Paki protection was in friendly territory and not hostile territory, so no need for him to move around. Moving a prized asset like OBL has its own security risks... to find a string of safe houses and the attendant involvement of many more people. OBL safely staying put in a secure compund under the watchful eye of ISI/Army with attendant medical care etc... deep inside Pakistan close to india border was the perfect place to hide.

What has hit pakis real hard is that someone came deep inside Pakistan and ferreted out the bandits and went away. Not even OBL or Pakis in their wildest dreams had thought of it. So ur logic is very weak to put it mildly. This shows total non application of mind.

[shyamd]

Pak escalated by identifiying CIA station chief. So Obama is responding by investigating ISI protection of OBL. So the deadline of the investigation gives TSP a warning - either fall in line or we'll implicate ISI and take you guys on.

Ball is in TSP court.

[VikramS]

Pak escalated by identifiying CIA station chief. So Obama is responding by investigating ISI protection of OBL. So the deadline of the investigation gives TSP a warning - either fall in line or we'll implicate ISI and take you guys on.

Ball is in TSP court.

Now is the time for them to show some tactical brilliance. Now is the time for some H&D preservation. The yanks need to be shown who has the balls.

Bloomberg sees TSP hiding withwas

[shyamd]

^^ All these articles now and the BBC headlines etc is because the US govt is raising the tempo. Most major channels in the west have had specials questioning Pak's role.

Cameron is also launching an investigation into Pak's role. Coalition forces are aligning on TSP, placing pressure on Kayani. Kayani can either fall in line or make his next move. Question is - what does US want now? I am pretty sure Shuja Pasha would have spoken to DC and said CIA chief has to go because of internal pressure before Pak announced it. But why did Obama escalate now? Which means something else is happening behind the scenes. US is probably saying give us more talebs (probably Haqqani's). Also keep in mind hte drone strike the other day, which caused further embarresment - which led to the name of the CIA station chief being announced. Obama - investigation. So TSP will respond now. How?

I think Kayani is thinking - I have nukes and I know as long as I keep the talebs going at ISAF troops - these gorey don't have will power to sustain serious casualties. West Asia is putting pressure for Unkil to take on Iran, so the US is locked up there and so US can't do anything in the long run.

If Obama was smart, he would call their bluff and maintain the pressure on Pak - maybe use the investigation to implicate ISI, perhaps next move would be to sanction certain sections of TSPA/ISI. Take on Haqqani's in TSPA territory.

The US have plenty of cards to play - 26/11, this investigation on OBL protection, Balochistan and so many more. LOL!

How stupid do you think the west are?
- They all have known for many years about TSPs role in funding/helping/arming Talebs against US.
- They have massive amounts of evidence of TSPAF even air dropping supplies to talebs.
- Pak army IDs on taleb commanders.

They have known this for years. Why havent they pulled TSP by the ear before? Is it India? Is it because of TSP has nukes?

Whatever happens this is a test of willpower. Has TSP underestimated Unkil? Kayani is about to take some serious risks. If it gets that far where they literally bomb Mullah Omar in his TSPA bunker. Not outright war here but we can prepare for some IED mubaraks in TSP here.

India can't do any raids to get anyone - that would be ultimate H&D damage and will invite a disproportionate response from TSP. TSP needs a war with India to unite the country - so our leadership have rightly beefed up the borders and forward positions.

If this gets serious expect KSA to call a meeting between the 3 families and sort this out. Both will issue terms and some settlement will be brokered.

Added Later: After reading the US Ambassador's intercview to the Paki press it is clear what the US wants. US have said either work with us and hand over Zawahiri & Mullah Omar (save your H&D) or we'll get them ourselves and this will get worse for you. So Pak have said a BIG NO to the US. LOL! Lets see where this goes.

[Marut]

Anujan,

I do not want to go OT here, but in the old days many of the dons in Mumbai's underworld, did not spend two consecutive nights in one location...same theory....chances of being in your opponents crosshairs get higher if you stay static. Ofcourse Pakistan was/is extracting money from the US for its ostensible help in the "war on terror". How much safer would this be if its primary cash generating asset OBL, was moved around every 6 months or more often? Even if the US got a lead, chances are it would lead to the older safehouse and not the current safehouse?

Hence I dont think the US and Pakistan were in cahoots on this issue. On many other issues, yes but not this one.

On the bolded part, it actually confirms Anujan's first point. The don's existence in the region is known, hence location needs to changed frequently to prevent rivals/police getting to them.

Regards to moving OBL around every six months or so, this will actually increase the chances of detection and subsequent raids to capture him. As is now known, OBL wasn't your lone ranger but a family man with three wives and numerous kids. So any frequent movement of this retinue will attract attention from those in the business of tracking movements. This will definitely reduce his chances of well being.

It was better for Pakis to hide OBL 'safely' in their house and point fingers at every other house. To keep the cash register ringing, all you need is a periodic video or message from OBL to keep the show running. So long as you can maintain this arragement, you needn't worry about moving your golden egg layer. The Pakis never believed that US could get to OBL on their own since they had cut him off from all civilization rendering the unparalled US techint superiority ineffective. It was a chance call from one of the inner circle that set the ball rolling culminating into the May 1 raid. Had the Pakis known beforehand (like the Tomahawk saga), they would have moved him out of Abbottabad and then continued to move him around very frequently, since the scenario has changed.

[RamaY]

Actually, Unkil too should be on the bed on the other side of OBL. Can someone rework this image?

If possible with 3.5 friends. Perhaps we should show some orgy, however disgusting it might look...

TIA.

[ldev]

Anujan,

I do not want to go OT here, but in the old days many of the dons in Mumbai's underworld, did not spend two consecutive nights in one location...same theory....chances of being in your opponents crosshairs get higher if you stay static. Ofcourse Pakistan was/is extracting money from the US for its ostensible help in the "war on terror". How much safer would this be if its primary cash generating asset OBL, was moved around every 6 months or more often? Even if the US got a lead, chances are it would lead to the older safehouse and not the current safehouse?

Hence I dont think the US and Pakistan were in cahoots on this issue. On many other issues, yes but not this one.

On the bolded part, it actually confirms Anujan's first point.

India does not need to move Kasam around because he is in a well guarded fortified prison. OBL was not in a well guarded fortified location. By all accounts there were 2 brothers on the first floor and maybe one other person with small arms who were his guards. Not moving OBL around would make sense if he was protected by a brigade of the Pakistani Army immediately outside his walled compound. The fact is that there was no Army presence on the road outside, otherwise the US forces would have run into them. Hence he was not protected. Either you have heavy fortified protection and stay static like nuclear weapons are OR if you stay below the radar and move around frequently. The fact that was holed up for 5 years means that he was not sure that with his ostensible LIMITED contacts and helpers in Pakistan he could move around without detection, given that he was about 6 feet 4-8 inches tall. If he had the official protection of the Pakistani Army (senior decision making elite) he would have been moved around in a convoy of vehicles with tinted glasses.

The Mumbai dons could move around with a lower risk of detection because while you can disguise many characteristics, height is very difficult to obscure. The only way would have been as I indicated above, that a convoy of Pakistani Army vehicles rolls into his compound picks him up out of public view and departs for another location. Clearly he did not have that facility and hence he and his limited band of supporters (probably some within the ISI) opted to keep him holed up in one location. Not ideal, but given the circumstances, optimal.

[shiv]

It was a chance call from one of the inner circle that set the ball rolling culminating into the May 1 raid.

This is probably a statement made to throw people off the trail. The real information may have come from many sources - some of them may be moles in the ISI whom the US cannot afford to lose. The Pakis are angry and pant browning because they have to figure out how this happened. I am certain the Pakis ar clever enough to ensure a strict "need to know' system in such cases. Osama would have had a code name. the identity of the code name would be known only to a few (or merely entered in some register somewhere). The people who knew the code name (or had access to the secret database/register) would not know the address. The people who knew and address would have no name of person at that address.

Even if Kayani or Pasha were caught and tortured they would not have known, But if Kayani wanted to know- he would ask Pasha. Pasha would ask the relevant cell which would access the relevant database to find the code name. Then someone would be asked to correlate code name with address. Only a core inner group person would get the info of code name and address and be able to say that this is Osama. The answer to "Where is Osama" would be available in a couple of hours to Kayani/Pasha.

[A_Gupta]

If the senior decision making elite of the Pakistani establishment was aware of OBL's actual location, he probably would have been moved around from safe house to safe house on a frequent basis. It just does not make sense to have him holed up in one location for 5 years. It is possible that elements within the ISI were aware of his actual location and provided local tactical protection, but had the elite decision making establishment as a whole been aware of his location, he would have been moved around periodically.

POTUS is aware of witness protection programs, CIA operatives in various countries, etc., etc., but is likely totally unaware of any of the details, names, addresses etc.

The senior decision making elite of the Pakistani establishment would simply be aware of a policy to protect Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban leaders, but not be aware of the details. In fact, they would not want to know.

Moreover, the details would be marked with suitable security classifications. E.g., so a nosy police inspector in Abbottabad who was not in the know, and who might have started sniffing around the OBL compound would quickly find out that the site is highly classified and he should desist.

Obviously the people in charge of taking care of OBL thought that keeping him in one place was safer than moving him around. Moving OBL around increased the probability of him being spotted. Note that while the US knew that there was a high-value target in the compound, that it was OBL was based purely on circumstantial evidence. In particular the key info was that the person there was OBL's courier. Other intelligence agencies with no knowledge of OBL's courier would simply conclude some high value target is there, but would not know whether it is OBL, Mullah Omar, etc., etc., or whether it is simply an ISI safehouse.

[Sanku]

All said and done, what ever be the political compulsions or otherwise. Any geo-political pressure or not. Continuing institutional support or not.

Barak Obama really made a remarkable move. This is a watershed event. For better or for worse, and he needed to sign off on this.

As some one who knows what taking decisions means in terms of stresses -- I offer kudos. In one stroke he has shaken off two+ years of stigma of over-promising without real meat to back him up. This is good stuff, any which way.

[ldev]

Shiv's scenario given above is also possible. That Pasha/Kayani knew he was in Pakistan but did not know exactly where to allow them plausible deniability. But one thing is certain, the Pakistanis did not want to give up OBL, especially in the way he was publicly executed by the US forces in their own backyard. Very humiliating for the Pakistanis....great loss of H&D.

[shiv]

Obviously the people in charge of taking care of OBL thought that keeping him in one place was safer than moving him around. Moving OBL around increased the probability of him being spotted. Note that while the US knew that there was a high-value target in the compound, that it was OBL was based purely on circumstantial evidence. In particular the key info was that the person there was OBL's courier. Other intelligence agencies with no knowledge of OBL's courier would simply conclude some high value target is there, but would not know whether it is OBL, Mullah Omar, etc., etc., or whether it is simply an ISI safehouse.

I suspect the US had a tab on every single "secure compound" in Pakistan. It may not be that difficult. I am certain software algorithms can eliminate a large number of places as insecure or openly visible - gradually whittling down the areas to a few that need extra snooping. if you put 200 people working on high quality photos 24x7 - a few months of work would cover Pakistan

[Muppalla]

If a lie is perpetrated via several media and other thinktanks it will become a truth. We discuss in various thousand pages thinking the same lie as truth.
(1) Pakistan having 100 nukes is really suspect.
(2) The capabilities of Pakistan in nukes is well documented and how they got via shady nuke wallmart created by some western countries and China.
(3) All the development and testing is done under the able eyes of biggies like US and China
(4) Suddenly the world has to beleive that they allowed Pak to deploy these independent of verifiable/trackable mechanism

For me this itself is hillarious and BS of highest order. I just do not belive that Nukes are free in the hands of PA. They are there for the Godly powers to use as hedge against India for geopolitical purposes. They are there to ask India not to act against Pak even in case of serious terror attacks. All other theories are spin IMVHO.

[Prem]

Uncle should be shown providing Bluepills and rest of 2.5 holding Lubricant,wipes and wating for turn wearing Bikinis.

[chaanakya]

Navy SEALs perform Advanced Cold Weather training to experience the physical stress of the environment and how their equipment will operate, or even sound, in adverse conditions in this Dec. 14, 2003 file photo in Kodiak, Alaska. (Photographer's Mate 2nd Class Eric S. Logsdon/U.S. Navy/Getty Images)

They used to get trained at HAWS Gulmerg as well.

[CRamS]

CRS,

The US can use its significant diplomatic leverage if Pakistan is sabre-rattling against India.

In any actual attack on Pakistan's nukes, all bets are off as far as physically preventing every launch.

As for a single commando raid on a single target in Pakistan - I would have had said yes, because of what the US has been doing in Pakistan since the summer of 2008, and because of what it has done elsewhere in the past.

If you remember I've been saying that the US is steadily escalating its secret war in Pakistan, to which your response has generally been 'its not serious, call me when they really go after the LeT'. Even before the Raymond Davis crisis broke, it was in the air (I dont just mean word of mouth, but the well-connected but offbeat media of both left and right) that JSOC was operating in Pakistan, not to mention the CIA's paramilitary forces (both US and Afghan nationals).

During the Son Tay raid in 1970, SOG (the precursor to JSOC) flew in to some of the most heavily defended airspace in the world - and landed choppers in a PoW camp the heart of North Vietnam and flew out without a single casualty. The Americans have done other things like that have never made any headlines.

Nukes (and not pre-production nuclear infrastructure) however, are a different story. Think about North Korea for a second - do you think the Americans, especially in the Bolton-Rumsfeld years didn't seriously consider every single military option?

Boss, first things first. I cannot argue with you on operational details, you are much more well informed than I am on this front. But I will give you the big picture, and I challenge you to refute it.

Do you accept (yes/no) that while professing helplessness in not being able to take out TSP nukes, whether or not its true, there is a huge geo-political reason why US and its lackeys, and China, are quite happy to see nukes in TSP's hands? And the reason, I as many others here do believe with good reasons, is because once TSP nukes are taken out of the picture, this "South Asia" is a nuclear flashpoint crap goes out of the window, and us SDREs can get a little uppity with the P-5. Of course, US knows that us decent SDREs will never think of using nukes, but the very fact that possession of nukes gives us SDREs some level of self confidence in our dealing with the west is what is a no no for them. Do you not accept this?

Now lets come to some hard facts. TSP is the evil pit of terrorism in the world. Every f^*%ing terrorist responsible for 9/11 was found in TSP. And this does not even include the savage beasts TSP has arrayed against India. US acknowledges this. TSP has proliferated nukes. Once again US acknowledges although its brilliant protect TSP disinformation campaign is in place, calling it the A.Q.Khan network as a way to disassociate TSP from this racket. Bottom line, TSP is the epitome of a mad, jihadi extremist rat hole with nukes, and yet US does not even talk about rolling back its nukes. I find this incomprehensible. And on the contrary, it is galling to note that US draws an equivalence between India & TSP on nukes. That’s the give away.

Contrast that with Iran and North Korea (your example). In those cases, US is actively campaigning for rolling back their nukes. Why not even a fraction of the same obsession when it comes to TSP which is far more dangerous and volatile than either Iran or NK. And are you telling me there are no geo-political reasons for this? Are you telling me that the India factor does not figure in their calculations? Give me a break!!!

I don’t believe a word of what US says when it pleads helplessness.

[chaanakya]

Look at it this way folks. Bin Laden - one of the world's most wanted men, assumed to be lving in a cave - shitting in that cave and eating half-cooked food and shivering in winter was actually sitting in a pukka house with access to wives, children, frends, cooked food, baths, toilet etc.

.

OBL's wife had a child five years old now while living in that Abbottabad compound.

[Johann]

CRS,

To every potential successful operation there are two key elements that *must both* be present - political will and military capability.

You are arguing that US willingness to act against Pakistani nuclear weapons in any sense is weak or non-existent, but that the military capability certainly exists.

What I am taking issue is the idea that a reliable, non-nuclear military capability exists - if it did it would have been used elsewhere in places where the intention and desire certainly existed.

Name *one* case where a country has attacked another nuclear power's nuclear weapons.

Ramana has shifted part of this nuclear discussion to the US-PRC-Pak thread, and I will continue there.

[pgbhat]

Even if Kayani or Pasha were caught and tortured they would not have known, But if Kayani wanted to know- he would ask Pasha. Pasha would ask the relevant cell which would access the relevant database to find the code name. Then someone would be asked to correlate code name with address. Only a core inner group person would get the info of code name and address and be able to say that this is Osama. The answer to "Where is Osama" would be available in a couple of hours to Kayani/Pasha.

Information Security .....two groups of people.... Individuals who need to know and Individuals with actual access.

[chaanakya]

Again I want to ask are the Americans so incompetent that the chopper that they use for the most important mission of the decade crashed due to mechanical failure or are they so naive that they used and untested stealth chopper for a mission which was so important . so what could be the exact reason?? Was it shot down??

I remember someone explaining that high walls created the vortex and heli got stalled., could not lift off. Thye had to call backup heli.

This reflects rather well on competence of SEALS.They had Plan B .

Rest is speculation. Could have been shot down by one of the men in the compound, but not if they could not anticipate the heli raid. It seems they were caught surprised. OSMAMA had no time to escape. That makes it unlikely to have targeted heli.

[SaiK]

Since uncle has the wherewithal and proved he can be both a bully, and continue to use pakis as condoms, and we have a political black hole and will power to take up surgical strikes on deep pakis.. why not "outsource" our strategic surgical ops to uncle, and in return some military sales could be something we can look up? This strategy would be like having a a double edged sword.

[ramana]

As Raj Kumar says in Waqt" yeh churi hain,. Hath kat sakta!"

Beware of outsourcing such important details as it can lead to worse effects. For sake of moquito bite don't cut of your arms.

Also think it over before making Saikological posts.

[Pranay]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/10/world ... ml?_r=1&hp

In an address to Parliament, Prime Minister Yousaf Gilani on Monday defended Pakistan’s spy agency and indirectly criticized the United States for Osama Bin Laden’s presence in Pakistan.

The prime minister’s statement was expected to give an accounting of what Pakistan knew about the Qaeda leader’s presence in Pakistan, but instead centered on how the raid by the United States was a breach of Pakistani sovereignty. He warned that a repeat of such a raid to capture other high profile terrorists could be met with “full force.”

Pakistan outs CIA Station Chief in Islamabad, again...

In apparent retaliation, the ISI appeared to have told a conservative daily newspaper, The Nation, the name of the C.I.A. station chief who is posted at the American Embassy in Islamabad. A misspelled version of the station chief’s name appeared in the Saturday edition of The Nation.

In December, the prior C.I.A. station chief had to leave Pakistan after he was publicly identified in a legal complaint sent to the Pakistani police by the family of victims of the American drone campaign. The station chief received death threats after his identity was exposed. At the time, the Obama administration said it believed that the ISI had deliberately made the name public.

The new station chief was responsible for directing a large part of the operation that killed Bin Laden, including supervision of a C.I.A. safe house from which operatives spied on the compound where Bin Laden lived for five years. There was no expectation that he would leave Pakistan, American officials said.

... and some more to the above story.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/10/world ... an.html?hp

For the second time in five months, the Pakistani authorities have embarrassed the Central Intelligence Agency by leaking the name of the C.I.A. station chief in Islamabad to Pakistani news media, a deliberate effort to complicate the work of the American spy agency in the aftermath of the raid that killed Osama Bin Laden, American officials said.

"After our raid, some defiance was to be expected regarding our not informing them. But the lengths to which the Prime Minister went to avoid taking any blame but rather shifting it all to the US, is unbelievable."

The publication of the name demonstrated the tilt toward a near adversarial relationship between the C.I.A. and the Pakistani spy agency, the Inter Services Intelligence Directorate, or ISI, since the Bin Laden raid. It appeared to be aimed at showing the leverage the Pakistanis retain over American interests in the country, both sides said.

In an address before Parliament on Monday, Prime Minister Yousaf Gilani made clear that Pakistani officials at the highest levels accepted little responsibility for the fact that Bin Laden was able to hide in their country for years.

Instead, he obliquely criticized the United States for having driven Bin Laden into Pakistan, condemned its violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty, and called the Qaeda leader’s presence in Pakistan an intelligence failure of the “whole world.”

[Lalmohan]

so, gilani is threatening his biggest benefactor with overt war...
and he is the army's mouthpiece too...
gauntlet is being thrown down...

[CRamS]

Since uncle has the wherewithal and proved he can be both a bully, and continue to use pakis as condoms, and we have a political black hole and will power to take up surgical strikes on deep pakis.. why not "outsource" our strategic surgical ops to uncle, and in return some military sales could be something we can look up? This strategy would be like having a a double edged sword.

I thought about that too, but I think the price US will demand from us SDREs is much more steeper than any military sales. They will demand roll back of our nukes in a verifiable, humiliating manner. In fact, if tomorrow, India were to announce cap and rroll back (which MMS won't mind and will agree to in a heartbeat except that he can't given the opoosition), both Chincom and US will collude and make TSP nuke nude in a few hours.

TSP nukes are for one and only purpose: India containment and to cap, roll back of India's nukes. Lets not dance around this. More on the other thread.