Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

[johneeG]

RajeshA saar,
three cheers to you. I think you are the only one on the right track here.

----

JohneeG:

I am not committing to any position, since I want to keep an open mind and let the data speak for themselves. This is not to say that I don;t have a working hypothesis. The hypothesis is that there may be a few factors on which the numbers support the hype, but not on a significant majority of them. The data will subsequently confirm or disprove this working hypothesis.

On the HDI analysis, your conclusions are a mischaracterization of my post. I will repost here. Plus, there were other numbers on education. One just looking at literacy, where the pre-post analysis compares 2001 to 2011. Three other analysis on education - two focused on outcomes (gross enrollment ratio and net enrollment ratio) and one that is much closer to Government inputs (pupil teacher ratio). Frankly, I didn't do the literacy and enrollment ratio analysis on my own. It was Modi supporters who presented those numbers and tripped on them by themselves. I did look at pupil teacher ratio since it is much closer to what the Government does. Outcomes can be affected by several factors outside the Government's control - though one can argue that they apply to other states too - the situations are not dramatically different at least for a subset of states.

Ok. It seems you are already engaging multiple posters on this topic and I don't want to burden you any further. But, it seems to me that this discussion is going more and more microscopic. You say you have a presumption(working hypothesis) that in sectors Guj may have done a great job, but on others it is hyped up. You want your presumption to be refuted by data by others. To back up your presumption, you mention 3 sectors: health, Income and Education. Among these 3 sectors, Guj seems to be performing reasonably well in 2(health & income). You accuse that Guj has performed miserably in Education. These conclusions are based on data upto 2008 at which point Modi had only completed one proper term 2002-2007.

Your accusation on Education sector was sought to be refuted by some by providing some data. You sought to buttress your point by taking up Teacher to pupil ratio. So, now, Guj development seems to have become single point discussion on Education sector and discussion on education sector seems to have become analysis of teacher to pupil ratio. While all this is interesting, I think it is too microscopic. There is nothing wrong in going into all these details, but it seems to me that its too early(in terms of accepting or refuting your working hypothesis).

I think the first step should be that you please provide your working hypothesis(presumptions) properly. Then, people can agree or disagree with them. And they can provide data to support or refute that hypothesis.

So, I think the first step should be that you categorize the sectors based on whether Guj performance was great, avg, or poor. First this has to be done for the time frame from 2002-2007. Then, this has to be repeated for the time frame from 2007-2012.

Here is an example:

2002-2007
Sectors with great Performance:
a) S
b) T
Sectors with avg Performance:
a) U
b) V
Sectors with poor Performance:
a) X
b) Y

2007-2012
Sectors with great Performance:
a) S
b) T
Sectors with avg Performance:
a) U
b) X
Sectors with poor Performance:
a) V
b) Y

If you want, you can then go to the next step and do further analysis of each sector. For example, since you seem to be focusing on Education sector, you could take up various factors within the education sector and then do a similar analysis.

Performance in education from 2002-2007:
Areas with great performance:
a) P
Areas with avg performance:
a) Q
b) R
Areas with poor performance:
a) M
b) N

Performance in education from 2007-2012:
Areas with great performance:
a) Q
Areas with avg performance:
a) P
b) R
Areas with poor performance:
a) M
b) N

When you list out your hypothesis in that manner,
a) it will provide a better way to analyze the performance of Guj in Modi's 1st term and 2nd term.
b) it will be a constructive criticism.
c) it will also give others an opportunity to agree or disagree with you and then support or refute you by providing data if they want to.

Right now, what seems to be happening is a random discussion with shifting focus on microscopic details.

Vuccha Dharma - Dharma of Urination (No joke but based on real-life observation)

When there was a sticker on the wall that said, "Vuccha Poyaradu" (Don't urinate here). It was exactly place where more Urination happened. The first person to urinate was the real crook who had no dilemma of Dharma and showed to others that he can do anything. This guy is similar to Congress and no explanation needs to be given by Congress-bots. The second person claims to be Dharmic, upon seeing the first person his dilemma solved and urinated. This guy is similar to BJP. All the explanation by BJP-bots like above is to explain how the dilemma is solved. In real incident, all people followed and the place where sticker was there became area where more urination happened. I can give what that place is similar to but I leave it to your imagination.

When people urinate at the very place with stickers prohibiting it, it means they are asserting that they can urinate wherever they want i.e. no place is safe from urination. When the very state that fought and achieved linguistic state and heralded an era of linguistic states is broken, it means an end of linguistic state era. It is not at all a co-incidence that both national parties have colluded in this(particularly the dilli gang) because they are the major beneficiaries if no state or state leader can stand up to dilli's leaders.

Modi must very easily understand this concept because time and again he has talked of Guj asmitha to win votes and rally against the kongis in dilli. He has also talked of how kongis have played spoil sport by denying funds to certain states due for political benefits. Modi's rise was also opposed by the dilli gang of his own party. Given this background, Modi would clearly the importance of states, asmitha and state leaders(and the threat they provide to the dilli gang). So, either Modi failed or colluded to protect AP and Thelugu asmitha. One cannot have one yardstick for oneself and another for others. One cannot talk of Guj asmitha on one hand and then fail/collude in protecting other asmithas. The irony is that Modi is using crores to build a statue for Patel while the existence of AP was the living testimony to the achievements of Patel. When the living testimony has been broken with active collusion from his own party, Modi is busy building some huge statue which is no more than an ego boost and tourist attraction. On the other hand, existence of AP state was a living testimony to the achievements of people like Patel, Shyama Prasad Mukherjee and Potti Sri Ramulu ...etc.

----
There seems to be a lot of focus on Thelugus by phoreners also. 1956 reorganization of states ended the Dhravda-naadu idea. How and why is no one asking the simple question: if the formation of AP can stop Dhravida-naadu idea, will the breaking of AP resurrect Dhravida-naadu idea?

[Jarita]

Hindus are most unsafe in Gujarat today, alleges VHP, Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) has condemned the Narendra Modi government for "not ensuring safety" of Hindus in the state and for its alleged failure to check crimes committed by Muslims against the majority community.

Ranchod Bharwad, general secretary, VHP Gujarat, called the abduction and murder of Niraj Verma, a Hindu engineering student, allegedly by a Muslim group in Dhundhiyavadi village near Palanpur, as an instance of the "growing atrocities" by the minority community of the state.

"This is not the only case. Recently, two brothers were killed in Munderda village of Amreli district by a Muslim group," said Bharwad. He went on to claim that Hindu girls were allegedly gangraped by Muslim criminals in Viramgam and Vadodara recently.

"These attacks have a clear pattern. They are intended to create terror among Hindus who, as a result, are most unsafe in Gujarat today. We demand immediate action against all criminals from the minority community who are involved in murder, rape and other atrocities. We demand Rs 11 lakh compensation from the state government for Niraj Verma's family and help to other victims," said Bharwad.

"The VHP will submit a memorandum at all taluka-level government offices and demand security for Hindus. We will launch an awareness drive across the state to make people aware of atrocities by Muslims,'' the VHP leader said.

The Gujarat unit of VHP has often accused the Modi government of neglecting Hindus. Last year, after many Hindus were convicted and jailed in the Naroda Patia, Ode, Sardarpura and Dipda Darwaja riot cases, the VHP had written an open letter to Modi condemning the Gujarat government for not protecting Hindus.

[Nitesh]

KLP saar, nice post, if we don't vote right, we will see mess getting so big that country will not be able to recover from it.

[member_20317]

The Bibek Debroy interview linked by Ravi_g above is a classic example of why it is best to go back to the original data sources and do your own analysis. It involves effort (I had to key in the numbers in a spreadsheet manually) but otherwise there is no rocket science in it. Now the question is why is Bibek Debroy so economical with the truth? Does he say anywhere that Gujarat has dropped in the rankings and has dropped from being in the top half of the country in 2001 to being in the bottom half in 2011? Why don't our media ask these simple questions that took only 15 mins of effort? Why has not a single journalist pointed out that the Rangarajan committee explicitly excludes Reliance from its price recommendation not once but thrice in the report but the Government went ahead and included it anyway? Why didn't the YS committee question it?

You have to wonder whether there is anybody at all in the media batting for India. Many think they are, but are they really? Even if the intentions are good, are they putting in even a half hearted effort?

Sridhar ji, why did you click open the video . I had posted the excised portion of what was claimed by Bibek Debroy and I was willing to commit to myself. Expressly writing something implies I am committing it to and that part was the real part where I requested you to filter down the combined list of PTR, GER & NER. You avoided that and instead clicked one more big name for a confirmation/inputs. Sir your argument will never get damaged by Bibek Debroy because he never made his presentation keeping your arguments in mind. I made the arguments that I made, keeping your analysis in mind hence only I and others like me (coming in after your arguments getting placed) will be able to confirm/damage your conclusions.

Let me go a step further and put up the picture showing the result of what I believed a spreadsheet enabled man could do himself and be honest about the results.

Remember Pupil Teacher Ration can be improved by not sending enough kids to school in the first place or by hiring larger number of dumber teachers.

The following filters are to see who bettered Gujarat on the combined improvement on all relevant parameters:

[member_20317]

My 9-yr old born and brought up in maasa, wants Modi to become India's PM. He does the typical things a kid does in any country, but he watches a few desi English channels when I watch. His reasons for BJP and Modi for winning is because I like Modi and want him to become the PM. He likes "Modi's speech". He does not watch/listen to them. Neither does he watch to Rajiv Malhotra's videos. But he will name Rajiv Malhotra, Rahul Gandhi and MMS. He thinks BJP is winning, and likes winners.

Why am I saying this? Human behavior. India, like any other country, is filled with humans who will like or vote because someone dear to them like/vote for a particular leader. And more Modi stays in people's mind - with a positive message - the greater is his chance of winning. There is a fine balance of getting too much air time causing boredom vs being in screens/media all the time. He still requires more recognition across the country.

As of now there is not enough of him, he has very little time on his hands. Modi needs to continue spreading his message/image across to common people, while Amit Shah and other trusted lieutenants have to strike alliances with regional parties.

SwamyG ji, don't compete with the little one. You are going to lose.

In the grey zone that life keeps presenting us with there are methods to formulating a decision and then living by it. Some are fast at it, some trudge along and then a few never get it. As they say Samajdaar ko ishara kaphi hai. He is samajdaar and you are still looking for more confirmation. And I am happy for it. Proves that our tomorrow is going to be better then our present.

[Neela]

I am happy to have given you your laugh for the day, but the fact remains that this is a direct outcome of your own flawed logic. You have proved my point, that the fact that he was re-elected thrice is completely irrelevant to the question of his record. Unless you make the claim that Gujarati voters are intelligent and that Biharis are fools. I hope that is not your position. Because without that position, the only logical conclusion is that re-election can happen due to variety of reasons, including record, but also other reasons.

In the language of logic, which you know more than me:
A leads to C but also B can lead to C. If you observe C, you cannot conclude that A has happened. You cannot rule out that C was caused by B.
If you are unable to understand this, let me make it even more clear
A = development record
B = other factors e.g. mobilization on the basis of caste, religion, quality of opponents, etc.
C = re-election thrice.

So what you want to do is to show that his re-election is not based on development record but rather a mixture of other factors including quality of opponents.
Your focus is therefore to puncture his development record and then use Laloo as a example to show that there is nothing positive that can be drawn out of his reelection.
BTW, unless I have not interpreted things correctly, using the same terms, C is a function of A and B and cannot be as you mentioned ( A --> C, B-->C ) . Otherwise re-relection boils down to a simple formula and it will all be happy days for the entire world.
No one is going to stop you from analyzing the statistics and extracting conclusions out of this.
But there have been enough reports which have given a basic idea about Modi improving several social parameters in the state. And this idea has been packaged and sold well and lots of people have bought this.
Your attempt in proving records wrong is beset with two problems;
1. It is not enough to show that improvement is not stellar. You have to show that that state has regressed and terribly at that under Modi.
2. Your motive will always be suspect. Lets be honest here. A frank open discussion on any forum is an ideal. Reality is , people have entrenched positions. So when you try something that goes against the grain, it is you who has to take all the personal attacks and still come out with a way of expressing things. When you complain of personal attacks, I always keep thinking "Well, what did you expect? Can you not sense the pulse of the forum?

And just to let you know, and I mean no harm when I say this - I doubt if you will be able to "convert" one person here.

[Atri]

All these theoretical discussions on candidates irritates me. Some people behave as though they are supreme court judges who will finally select the PM based upon detailed examination and deliberation of their record.

In fact, we are all just prospective voters, who basically have four choices come election day:

1) Vote for the NDA candidate in your constituency. This will help bring the BJP to power and Shri Modi as the PM. He will determine the cabinet, who are likely to be capable and honest individuals qualified to handle national security, defense, economy, etc etc. The country will have a strong and effective Central government.

2) Vote for the UPA candidate in your constituency. This will help keep the Congress in power and bring Rahul Gandhi (or a puppet like Chidambaram or some other joker) as PM. These people will be controlled by Sonia and Rahul, and continue screwing the country on all fronts.

3) Vote for some local party. You then are assisting the possible formation of some "third front" patchwork of small parties, which will form a ramshackle cabinet filled with all kinds of monkeys with differing agendas and no cohesion. Country screwed again for next five years.

4) Don't vote for any of the above.

If your option isn't crystal-clear to you from all the election rallies, speeches, news, and the state of the country after a decade of UPA/Congress rule at the center and "third-front" party rule in various states, then no amount of postings dissecting Shri Modi's record will be of any use to you or anyone else.

It's as simple as that. Make up your mind.

+1

this is nothing but intellectual masturbation.

It looks like Sridhar garu has already decided not to vote for namo. the chance for intellectually converting a person is past. most of us have already made up their minds.. in the last phase of election when the code of conduct is implemented, its all about mobilizing all those who have made up their minds and bringing them to the booths and make them cast their vote.

By far, King rules by the force of sentiment, not empirical evidence alone. People do not remember how many toilets did king build OR by how many points the health index increased. People remember things subjectively - that is how happier and well-off they are. Young men are willing to work 18 hours a day, heck most of them do. It does not matter to them as of yet, how the HDI indices are performing. As long as they have jobs and way to earn money, they invest bulk of their money in their children so that children can live a better life than they did. Modi gives them that hope. Modi has given Gujjus that hope by his performance. These socialistic ideas of govt being a maai-baap is really appalling. Govt's job is to create infrastructure for bijli-sadak-pani-protection of individual and biz interests-administration and in return extract taxes. All this education, health, happiness what not is for people to pursue. HDI, for example, cannot differentiate between a beggar and a bhikshuk sannyasi, can it?

All these uber-intellectual arguments are to convince themselves and the ppl around as to why one voted for Raul baba and kejru and not Modi. Just be upfront already and vote INC in. Modi is not a maryada purushottam, such maryada purushottams ceased to exist after treta-yuga. RSS is here to stay. Modi is a Hindu-Rashtravadi. and yes, the goal of RSS is to create a powerful Hindu-rashtra. And by hindu, it means all those who consider Undivided India as their motherland and punyabhumi, irrespective of their belief (or lack of it) in a supernatural being OR mode of worship. One who believes in designing India's sociopolity around this simple premise - is a Hindutva-vaadi. One may not like the org, but there are millions who like them OR are OK with them pursuing this goal, as long as the material needs of citizens are taken care of.

Kejri has presented an option to those who hate Hindutva-theory and are embarrassed to vote directly for congis. They should know that any vote which is not given to BJP (plus Shivsena plus SAD) is a vote for congress. So either vote NOTA (may as well not vote at all), or any other non-NDA symbol OR vote lotus. Simple.

Modi ensured ppl get 24 hours electricity, clean water and good road-connectivity. He has ensured people are able to pay for these expensive services. His role has ended. Now he has to monitor and make minor adjustments as the system evolves on its own.

And lastly, those harping about HDI should consider the migration effect from lesser developed parts of India. We have similar problems in Mumbai (which is why MNS exists) due to huge influx of people from all over in search of jobs. If bijli-sadak-pani is made available in UP-Bihar-Bengal (eastern half of India), many people will fine avenues of prosperous growth in their native setting without having to leave villages to stay in shite in bigger cities, away from families. That does not mean there aren't enough doctors OR hospitals etc in Mumbai or western MH as a whole. NaMo actually talks of this development disparity in eastern India, and yet he is non-kosher. What does one want? Non-BJP parties with wide-range of freebies? interior India and east has to develop and set its demography in order (too few Hindus). Western coast can do only so much. And there cannot be forever that revenues of western coast and south disappear in black hole of delhi, at some point people are bound to question. A politician who has clearly identified and enunciated this problem along with solutions (and track record of solving the basic bijli-sadak-paani-governance problem), should be the clear choice.

The social, political and economic ills infesting India is accumulated junk over period of centuries. It won't go away in matter of 10 years. And it is not the job of government to reform society. Society should reform intrinsically. And Hindus do that, no matter what. As long as Modi strives for fulfilling basic needs of people (bijli-sadak-paani being paramount), he is fine.

[Comer]

There seems to be a lot of focus on Thelugus by phoreners also. 1956 reorganization of states ended the Dhravda-naadu idea. How and why is no one asking the simple question: if the formation of AP can stop Dhravida-naadu idea, will the breaking of AP resurrect Dhravida-naadu idea?

No sir, some people from TDP calling for SA secession doesn't mean anything.

[kumarn]

@Disha ji, thanks for your help! I have sent her choicest nuggets from your posts and the exchange is happening on kitabe-e-chehra. So, it is for all to see. Hope she comes back with more. It is not easy to convert her. But it will affect the fence-sitters. I will keep you updated!

[Supratik]

The best way is to confront data with data. Otherwise, it will just seem like avoiding the issue all together. There are many from Gujarat here who have provided anecdotal evidence on improvements in that state. And the industrialists are happy because of pro-active government. I believe Gujarat also was the first in providing 100% electricity throughout the state, reduced judiciary backlog by having courts working through the night etc.

It would be good if someone can pull up the data which is available on the web. Just making personal attacks or skirting around it saying so and so also supports modi might not be very productive. Not just Sridhar, but as the elections draw closer, many others in the media and other parties will start pulling up the data to show how Gujarat is doing. So it is pointless to blame the messenger. If the data is available to prove that Gujarat is doing well, it can also be put in the first post of the thread so that it is there for reference.

Sorry bhai. Got pissed off. The data is available and has been dissected several times. Has been commented on by experts. A few minutes of google chacha is all it takes. No problem if it is discussed again.

[Atri]

this year's Gujarat budget graphics - plenty of "Data" for rational discussion onlee - http://financedepartment.gujarat.gov.in ... h_Part.pdf

Here is overview of budget on finance dept website - http://financedepartment.gujarat.gov.in ... t14-15.php

the budget speech by nitin patel - http://financedepartment.gujarat.gov.in ... _Final.pdf

[rohitv]

@Disha ji, thanks for your help! I have sent her choicest nuggets from your posts and the exchange is happening on kitabe-e-chehra. So, it is for all to see. Hope she comes back with more. It is not easy to convert her. But it will affect the fence-sitters. I will keep you updated!

link, if that debate is open to public/can be viewed by non-friends

[panduranghari]

+1 KLP Dubey, unlike NRIs , locals like me do not have the luxury of urbane debates and wealth and kids nicely settled abroad and immune from the failure and chaos that is the routine here. they can indulge in intellectual support for socialist zealots of the AAP stripe based on books, IIT brand or whatever is the fad of the day.

I need jobs for myself and jobs for my kids as well. everything else like health and wealth flow from there. the UPA has presided over the longest periods of job and economic stagnation in our modern history. and what they have NOT DONE in the last 10 yrs will take another ten years to recover from due to long lead time in big projects and reforms that were halted and not started on time.

True saar. But I am hoping I can move to desh after these elections with the right kind of leadership at the helm. So I have a vested interest. Besides I still am an Indian national after 12 years in foreign land and I will be coming to vote for the elections as well.

Life in the west may be rosy for some. Its not bad for me either but I would rather live in India.

I am now seeing the world as its is, not as I wish to see it.

[anmol]

Big in Japan: Why Abe is Rooting for a Modi Win
by Shrey Verma,
February 20th 2014

When Shinzo Abe led the Liberal Democratic Party to a landslide victory in the December 2012 Japanese general elections, one of the many congratulatory messages he received from world leaders -- and one that went largely unnoticed -- was from Narendra Modi, the chief minister of the Indian state of Gujarat. A phone conversation between the Japanese prime minister and the Gujarat chief minister is odd by strict standards of protocol, but it underscores how the personal relationship between the two men and the economic partnership between Japan and Gujarat has thrived over the years.

Recent polls show that Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the principal opposition to the ruling Congress party, is well positioned to win the greatest number of seats in India's upcoming parliamentary elections. If Modi becomes India's next prime minister, his rise could also vault the strategic India-Japan relationship to a position of unprecedented importance.

The economic success story between Japan and Gujarat is one of politics driving business. Modi's administration began pursuing a vigorous "Look East" policy courting Japan after the West, led by the United States, closed its doors to Modi in 2005 for his controversial role as chief minister during the 2002 Gujarat riots that killed more than 1,000 people. His visit to Japan in 2007 was an icebreaker of sorts, opening new investment channels between the Indian state and a foreign country.

In the years since, Gujarat's administrative efficiency and investor-friendly climate have rapidly attracted Japanese investments, with significant investment flowing into mega infrastructure projects. Suzuki, the Japanese auto giant, is already setting up new plants and ancillary units in the region, and private Japanese investment in Gujarat is expected to total $2 billion by 2015-2016. The investment spree is not restricted to Japanese multinationals. In 2009, the Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO), a trade and investment agency under the Japanese government, partnered with Gujarat to organize the Vibrant Gujarat Global Investors Summit, a mini-Davos showcase event to attract foreign investment. Japan was designated "partner country" to the summit and represented by a senior delegation led by the Japanese ambassador.

Japan's current policy establishment enjoys strong working relations with Modi. The extent of the relationship became clear when, during an official visit in 2012, the Japanese government accorded Modi protocol befitting a cabinet minister of the union (a more highly ranked position than chief minister of a state). Coordinating the visit and overseeing the new partnership was Akitaka Saiki, a former Japanese envoy to India and now Japan's top diplomat in the current government. During the visit, Modi made it a point to call on Abe, then in opposition.

Strength in numbers

At a time when the China-Japan relationship is reaching new lows, India now forms the cornerstone of Abe's near-abroad strategy. The desire to expand the India-Japan relationship from its economic bedrock to a higher strategic level is finding greater traction in New Delhi as well.

Japanese Emperor Akihito's recent historic visit to India and Abe's attendance of Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi as India's chief guest point toward a gradual rebalancing taking place in Asia. India's invitation to Japan to take part in the U.S.-India Malabar Naval exercise, to be held later this year, was a more overt manifestation of the evolving strategic partnership. India may also soon become the first country since World War II to buy military aircraft from Japan in a $1.65-billion deal.

It is amid these shifting geopolitical relationships that Modi may ascend to India's top post. The Japanese view the emerging India-Japan relationship as going beyond economic interests and being further strengthened by Japan's special relationship with Gujarat and the mutual respect between Abe and Modi.

Politically, the two could help each other. Economically, Japanese savings are looking for greener shores as Japan battles deflationary pressures. Businesses in India, on the other hand, are hoping that a Modi victory later this year would restart the stalled reform process and revive economic growth, opening new space for Japanese investments. And China's aggressive posturing along its border with India and in the East China Sea presents an obvious rationale for strengthening India-Japan military and strategic relations.

Weakening ties with Washington?

The renewed thrust in India-Japan relations is not only a reaction to China. It is also embedded in the more expansive vision of the U.S.-Japan-Australia-India Quadrilateral Security Dialogue that Abe articulated in 2006.

Abe's "Quad" strategy has acquired a new practical dimension of late. Japan's recent apprehension about the strength of its alliance with Washington is driving Japanese diplomats to forge stronger security relationships with other Asian powers. Despite the U.S. "pivot" to Asia, U.S. relations with India and Japan, the continent's two democratic powers, have hit a rough patch. Abe's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine and his government's moves to extricate Japan from a U.S.-centric security framework have made Washington uneasy.

A similar disquiet also marks the U.S.-India relationship, where diplomatic tensions, trade disputes, and foreign policy divergences on Bangladesh and Afghanistan have garnered more headline space than defense cooperation and strategic gains made after the historic Indo-U.S. Civil Nuclear deal. The current drift in relations is further complicated by Washington's eight-year estrangement with Modi -- a position that was reversed only recently, as the American ambassador to India, Nancy Powell, met with him in mid-February.

From a geopolitical perspective, the two sides of the strategic triangle involving U.S.-India and U.S.-Japan have frayed in recent months. However, the third flank, representing the India-Japan relationship, appears to have entered a new phase of strength and proximity.

This relationship would undoubtedly find greater expression if Modi's fortunes rise. Should Modi be appointed India's next prime minister this summer, expect Tokyo to be his first stop abroad.

[Rahul Mehta]

In fact, we are all just prospective voters, who basically have four choices come election day:

1) Vote for the NDA candidate in your constituency.

2) Vote for the UPA candidate in your constituency.

3) Vote for some local party.

4) Don't vote for any of the above.

Well, voters have innumerable choices and two of them are

1. vote for candidate/party who has worked MOST to publicize and bring good law-drafts in Gazette to fix India.

2. and if all candidates/partiies oppose good law-drafts then vote for NoTA so that next time candidates/parties and their activists learn to work for good law-drafts.

Now since this is NaMo thread, I would NOT advertise the only group in India which worked to publicize good law-drafts to fix India. But BJP, Congress and AAP have never spent a minute or penny in publicizing good law drafts. All that these 3 parties have done is slogan shouting, cap wearing, mask wearing, rallying and other noisy and time-waste activities.

I can give 100s of examples. One of them is Sonia Gandhi's decision to hide Hindu\Muslim % numbers of census-2011. On facebook, ONLY one group publicized this fact as early as dec-2012 and since dec-2012 that group has been asking activists to pull collars of MPs and demand this data. Congress, BJP and AAP leaders merely supported this action of Sonia Gandhi for their own nefarious selfish reasons. And NaMo has NOT demanded that his data from census authorities , for some reasons that my brain with IQ of 107 cant understand.

So pls vote for party/candidate who has been asking for such data and doing good work or publicizing much needed law-drafts in India. Pls dont waste vote on candidate/party who dont have necessary body parts to ask census authorities to disclose % Hindu\Muslim numbers. If no candidate/party in your area has body parts to ask for census numbers, then just hit NoTA

[RajeshA]

Well, voters have innumerable choices and two of them are

1. vote for candidate/party who has worked MOST to publicize and bring good law-drafts in Gazette to fix India.

2. and if all candidates/partiies oppose good law-drafts then vote for NoTA so that next time candidates/parties and their activists learn to work for good law-drafts.

Now since this is NaMo thread, I would NOT advertise the only group in India which worked to publicize good law-drafts to fix India. But BJP, Congress and AAP have never spent a minute or penny in publicizing good law drafts. All that these 3 parties have done is slogan shouting, cap wearing, mask wearing, rallying and other noisy and time-waste activities.

I can give 100s of examples. One of them is Sonia Gandhi's decision to hide Hindu\Muslim % numbers of census-2011. On facebook, ONLY one group publicized this fact as early as dec-2012 and since dec-2012 that group has been asking activists to pull collars of MPs and demand this data. Congress, BJP and AAP leaders merely supported this action of Sonia Gandhi for their own nefarious selfish reasons. And NaMo has NOT demanded that his data from census authorities , for some reasons that my brain with IQ of 107 cant understand.

So pls vote for party/candidate who has been asking for such data and doing good work or publicizing much needed law-drafts in India. Pls dont waste vote on candidate/party who dont have necessary body parts to ask census authorities to disclose % Hindu\Muslim numbers. If no candidate/party in your area has body parts to ask for census numbers, then just hit NoTA

No! Most who are "working" on "good" law drafts are those with their heads in the sand. They think they are living in peaceful times, where the system needs to be only tinkered around with to improve it.

Improved for whom? The citizen?

This is like decorating the outside of one's house with paper cutouts just before an Andhi is due! Indrashakti!

It is looking for strong leadership for the country in some legal bookworm sitting in some chancellery!

When Jihadis terrorize, let's invite them to work on law drafts! When China attacks, let's invite them to work on law drafts! When America does arm-twisting, let's invite them to work on law drafts!

[Neela]

Read from bottom to top.

Narendra Modi ‏@narendramodi 9m

We need strong linkage between tourism & handicraft sector. Our experience in Kutch shows the difference it can make http://nm4.in/1h4KElU
Expand

Narendra Modi ‏@narendramodi 10m

For the growth of handicraft sector we need to focus on upgradation of quality, technology & making durable & user friendly products.
Expand

Narendra Modi ‏@narendramodi 12m

More our handicraft sector develops, the more opportunities poor get. We need to invigorate the sector with latest research & innovation.
Expand

Narendra Modi ‏@narendramodi 15m

At the inauguration of Garvi Gurjari National Craft Fair & Summit in Ahmedabad pic.twitter.com/wXB9ZKotto
View photo

[Abhijit]

For Sridhar garu:

If I understand correctly, you are basing your arguments on the pdf of Oxford University Press that you linked before? As per my cursory reading of that document, most of their 'analyses' are based on the data furnished by NSS/NSSO. And as per NSSO, ALL the data is done using sample survey method. It is not primary data (as per my understanding of what constitutes primary data). Please let me know your views.

[gashish]

Though rohitvats's data-based rebuttal seems solid,I dont think it will change minds of people who have already decided not to vote for NaMo. Similarly, people who have decided to vote for Namo would still vote for him even if the rebuttal were to be not so strong.

Simon Sinek has beautifully articulated this phenom in one of his most watched videos "Start with Why?" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sioZd3AxmnE):

"People dont buy "what" you do; people buy "why" you do it"

Inspirational leaders such as NaMo appeal directly to limbic part of the brain which evokes emotional behaviour & choice ("Why").The advanced part of brain part just tries to rationalize ("What") the choice you have already made. For some the WHY is Hindutva leader, for some others it is OBC chai-wala leader, for still some others it is a leader who puts "India first", for still some others it is "strong leader" providing economic and physical security etc Nobody is making decisions/choices on that 1 or 2 percentage points slippage in PTR, SCR,literacy or what have you.

Base of followers of new leader, just like in the diffusion of new technology, grows in stages formed of "innovators" and "early adopters" who first try out the new tech, which are then followed by cynical early majority in not-so-common successful cases (critical mass, this is where I believe Modi is). You also have late majority or laggards who will never try new tech/leadership and find all kinds of excuses for not doing so.
(i still remember my excuse for not buying iPhone for very loong time-that apple didnt give me freedom to change batteries on my own!)

People who are trying to find holes in "what" (=Namo's developmental record) have already made their choice (based on their "why") and are now looking to rationalize it.

JMHTs

[Abhijit]

^^^ +1

[Vayutuvan]

I have to say I disagree with CM NaMo on this point of development of handicrafts to bring people out of poverty. This will not help if we are talking large numbers (as it is in India's case). The only way out is industrialization and more efficient farming and animal husbandry. The latter has problems of its own (like factory animal farms) which should be discouraged by increasing the content of vegetables in the food intake. Both require good primary/secondary education to feed a year or two of vocational training beyond 10th/12th grades.

Handicrafts can be one of the components only. What is required is goods which are standardized along with standardized construction methods for interchangeability of parts in the BOM of related products. High Art or curiosity nick-knacks (initially for export and much later for internal consumption) can come much later. Even on the export side, it is a cultural thing in that US citizens (the largest market) would be more interested in European, African, and increasingly Latin American items due to interest in the culture of their forefathers.
We may have some market in far east (Budhhist back ground of Japan, S. Korea, China; Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia are at or below our level of development and would not enough disposable income to spend on non-essentials) and possibly better off countries like S. Africa in Africa.

[Vayutuvan]

Choosing a top political leader cannot be done in the way one decides on promoting a mid-level executive, based mainly on performance metrics.

I am one of those who thought in 2002 that Modi was a mass murderer and probably a crook aswell. Over the next decade, Modi has survived the most intensive scrutiny of any politician anywhere, from some very powerful entities. As more evidence came out, I was forced to admit that I was wrong; Modi did do his sincere best to control the riots, probably rising above his own personal biases, and despite his inexperience.

Then I watched a couple of his speeches of his and was impressed by the clarity of his thinking. He is a man with a good head on his shoulders and displays a sound ethical base. None of the other contenders comes anywhere close in this regard. And obviously he knows how to connect with and inspire people, which is a key element of political leadership.

Same here. Very good summary of how a large number of people from the center (but may be a tiny bit left or right of the center depending on the issue at hand) as they got more information saw through the hyperventilation/ululations/mud-slinging/bigotry of the far-left (almost verging on CPI(ML), RSU, PDSU ideology) people like Teesta Setalvad, Susanne A. Roy, Aruna Roy, Medha Phatkar etc. and turned into NaMo supporters.

[RajeshA]

gashish ji,

good post!

[Kakkaji]

Is Sridhar = sugriva?

[KLP Dubey]

Well, voters have innumerable choices and two of them are

1. vote for candidate/party who has worked MOST to publicize and bring good law-drafts in Gazette to fix India.

2. and if all candidates/partiies oppose good law-drafts then vote for NoTA so that next time candidates/parties and their activists learn to work for good law-drafts.

LOL. Nope. Only four kinda choices on the ballot, Mr. Mehta: NDA member, UPA member, other local party (including independents), or NOTA. Does your ballot have the question "which party brings best law drafts"?

Whatever be your pet election issue(s), remember:

1) You need to make up your mind among the four types of choices.

2) The Lok Sabha election has the key objective of determining the Central government. That is the key event that is going to occur immediately after the election, which will determine the country's direction in the next 5 years. Your friendly neighborhood party headed by Shri Mehta is not going to form the central government. So any voter with half a brain would use their general election vote to help determine the central government that they are best comfortable with.

[Muppalla]

Though rohitvats's data-based rebuttal seems solid,I dont think it will change minds of people who have already decided not to vote for NaMo. Similarly, people who have decided to vote for Namo would still vote for him even if the rebuttal were to be not so strong.

Simon Sinek has beautifully articulated this phenom in one of his most watched videos "Start with Why?" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sioZd3AxmnE):

"People dont buy "what" you do; people buy "why" you do it"

Inspirational leaders such as NaMo appeal directly to limbic part of the brain which evokes emotional behaviour & choice ("Why").The advanced part of brain part just tries to rationalize ("What") the choice you have already made. For some the WHY is Hindutva leader, for some others it is OBC chai-wala leader, for still some others it is a leader who puts "India first", for still some others it is "strong leader" providing economic and physical security etc Nobody is making decisions/choices on that 1 or 2 percentage points slippage in PTR, SCR,literacy or what have you.

Base of followers of new leader, just like in the diffusion of new technology, grows in stages formed of "innovators" and "early adopters" who first try out the new tech, which are then followed by cynical early majority in not-so-common successful cases (critical mass, this is where I believe Modi is). You also have late majority or laggards who will never try new tech/leadership and find all kinds of excuses for not doing so.
(i still remember my excuse for not buying iPhone for very loong time-that apple didnt give me freedom to change batteries on my own!)

People who are trying to find holes in "what" (=Namo's developmental record) have already made their choice (based on their "why") and are now looking to rationalize it.

JMHTs

Thanks for great post. Here is a gaowaala post a month ago on similar lines

This crowd is typically a group who thinks they are with liberal values and BJP is some conservative monster. Today being educated and young and part of capitalist economy and have certain fair life ethics (governance and abide by law etc), it is just impossible for them to side with Congress party which is once a darling of such folks.

In 2009 with an Economist as PM and a young turk as Congress rising start they just closed their eyes and voted to Congress. I live in the midst of such crowd and several of them are my close friends too. They all know that I hate anything that is not BJP and were very conservative in their views but as soon as BJP lost I can see the glee and talk about youthfulness and modernism etc.

Even now they agree that the governance is worst in India under congress but in deepest of deepest wishes they want to see that something nice should happen where there is no place for BJP or Modi.

For social life they cannot openly side with anti-Modi as that will take them away from being part of mood of the community. So they do occasional lip service. In the midst of this predicament AAP came as a thing where these liberal-values nice folks can hang on. When AAP won Delhi, a close friend called me and said we can now live peacefully as people has something away for two extremes.

The new theme of talk for such crowd is I like Modi but I like to see a new emergence and I support AAP. The "I like Modi" part is just social acceptance stuff but not really true. It is as good as saying "he is so sweet", "you are too sweet yaar" stuff.

In the end there is no one from this group that will really go out and vote if AAP fails miserably. Very insignificant will vote to BJP among those who openly say "I vote for AAP". Their love for Modi is just for social acceptance but not truly. This where congress still has some opening. They need to give a new leader and a new hope so that they get a pretext to not vote to Modi.

I my opinion, AAP supporter is a well settled mind and it is not swing as many think.

[Sridhar]

gashish: Rohit's rebuttal is not really a rebuttal - it is a case of presenting a different set of data. They are valid and worth consideration. I have not responded to him in detail yet, but that does not mean that I will not.

Abhijit: I am not using any analysis from any publication I have linked. The document is only a reference for data that was collected elsewhere (in that instance, a data collection exercise initiated for monitoring of the SSA called the DISE). Also, instead of going by definitions of primary data (BTW, your understanding of its definition is incorrect), why don't you point out what issue you have with using NSS data and what alternative you propose? As an aside, I am not wedded to the NSS data. In fact, the only place the NSS data might have entered in anything I have presented is in the HDI numbers.

[Sridhar]

Is Sridhar = sugriva?

Kakkaji, I am not. I am the same Sridhar whose article in BR Monitor on a statistical analysis of ethnic cleansing in Pakistan was the first data-based article on the topic anywhere and is cited by many others now (and has for over 10 years been a part of the first post in every single version of the TSP thread). It is the same Sridhar who helped behind the scenes, when Sunil Sainis was leading that effort, in editing (often rewriting entire articles in the process) and producing multiple issues of BR Monitor, a publication of quality that I have been proud to have been associated with. I have never posed on this forum as anybody else, and would appreciate not being repeatedly questioned about my credentials, my identity and my motives by multiple people. Criticize anything I have to say, but why this focus on the person?

[Kakkaji]

Is Sridhar = sugriva?

Kakkaji, I am not. I am the same Sridhar whose article in BR Monitor on a statistical analysis of ethnic cleansing in Pakistan was the first data-based article on the topic anywhere and is cited by many others now (and has for over 10 years been a part of the first post in every single version of the TSP thread). It is the same Sridhar who helped behind the scenes, when Sunil Sainis was leading that effort, in editing (often rewriting entire articles in the process) and producing multiple issues of BR Monitor, a publication of quality that I have been proud to have been associated with. I have never posed on this forum as anybody else, and would appreciate not being repeatedly questioned about my credentials, my identity and my motives by multiple people. Criticize anything I have to say, but why this focus on the person?

"Oops! Sorry

[Gus]

what is with people repeatedly questioning somebody's credentials...

I remember Sridhar's posts in infra etc, especially the chennai metro discussions, and of course the seminal work on ethnic cleansing in pak that is the go to article on the subject. I think he was active in 06,07 but we had more people join in later and may not be familiar with that.

[Suraj]

Posters have an annoying habit of making it personal these days. I happen to know Sridhar in real life, and consider him a friend for about a decade. I may not agree with the thrust of his recent posts, and wrote my own perspective in response, in the AAP thread. But that doesn't change my impression of him, or anyone else for that matter. Not only is questioning his credentials uncalled for, but the specific credentials of his in the field of business and economics that were questioned made me , knowing what he happens to do in real life.

[Supratik]

Yes, I was surprised it was coming from him but each to his own opinion.

[SagarAg]

Though rohitvats's data-based rebuttal seems solid,I dont think it will change minds of people who have already decided not to vote for NaMo. Similarly, people who have decided to vote for Namo would still vote for him even if the rebuttal were to be not so strong.

Simon Sinek has beautifully articulated this phenom in one of his most watched videos "Start with Why?" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sioZd3AxmnE):

"People dont buy "what" you do; people buy "why" you do it"

Inspirational leaders such as NaMo appeal directly to limbic part of the brain which evokes emotional behaviour & choice ("Why").The advanced part of brain part just tries to rationalize ("What") the choice you have already made. For some the WHY is Hindutva leader, for some others it is OBC chai-wala leader, for still some others it is a leader who puts "India first", for still some others it is "strong leader" providing economic and physical security etc Nobody is making decisions/choices on that 1 or 2 percentage points slippage in PTR, SCR,literacy or what have you.

Base of followers of new leader, just like in the diffusion of new technology, grows in stages formed of "innovators" and "early adopters" who first try out the new tech, which are then followed by cynical early majority in not-so-common successful cases (critical mass, this is where I believe Modi is). You also have late majority or laggards who will never try new tech/leadership and find all kinds of excuses for not doing so.
(i still remember my excuse for not buying iPhone for very loong time-that apple didnt give me freedom to change batteries on my own!)

People who are trying to find holes in "what" (=Namo's developmental record) have already made their choice (based on their "why") and are now looking to rationalize it.

JMHTs

+1 for this "chemical locha" post
gashish ji,
Someone is definitely reading our forum.

[Vayutuvan]

I think he was active in 06,07 but we had more people join in later and may not be familiar with that.

Even before. IIRC, as early as 2002-3 time frame.

[gandharva]

AAP and Kejriwal agents of West~ Baba Ramdev (1:10 onwards)

[gakakkad]

arguments similar to sridhar's argument has been refuted by suraj,I et al dozens of times in this thread as well as the economic thread...

other point to note is that iHDI is a load of crap... a greater number of wealthy people actually reduces iHDI.

[Victor]

Yes, I was surprised it was coming from him but each to his own opinion.

It is unhelpful, at best, to not suggest an alternative backed by the same exactitude used to down Modi and BJP. At worst, it looks very much like what AAP is doing.

[VikramS]

Is Sridhar = sugriva?

Kakkaji, I am not. I am the same Sridhar whose article in BR Monitor on a statistical analysis of ethnic cleansing in Pakistan was the first data-based article on the topic anywhere and is cited by many others now (and has for over 10 years been a part of the first post in every single version of the TSP thread). It is the same Sridhar who helped behind the scenes, when Sunil Sainis was leading that effort, in editing (often rewriting entire articles in the process) and producing multiple issues of BR Monitor, a publication of quality that I have been proud to have been associated with. I have never posed on this forum as anybody else, and would appreciate not being repeatedly questioned about my credentials, my identity and my motives by multiple people. Criticize anything I have to say, but why this focus on the person?

Funny isnt it.

I did a search just to get to that article earlier this week. Have shared it with many people..

The problem with the posts in AAP was I would call attitude. When you say

" but all we have in the link you have provided is Modi's word for it. I don't trust secondary sources, but will look up dropout numbers also and see how much truth there is in that",

it clearly shows what I would call a lack of 'trust' in what Modi is saying.

Perhaps you do not realize it but that is the exact tone used by the thousands of Congressi trolls (reincarnated as AAP followers) over the years. Many of us have spent hundreds of hours writing comments, tweeting or on FB to get rid of the FUD thrown against Modi.

So when I see some one taking one data point (that too a rank) on an issue where their is wide diversity even in the raw-data collection process (definition of literate, classification of literate vs illiteracy), it certainly stirs up some raw emotions. Especially when you are aware that he has been attacking the root cause of some of the problems directly.

There are a lot of variables which can contribute to the end result; what should be clear that even if the results are not top-notch they are not because of lack of effort, or more importantly intent. In a country which has had to import Chinese tradesmen for infra projects because there are not enough trained tradespeople available, he has made it a point to invest in trades people skills (ITI not IIT or something along the lines). That is so unlike any other leader.

I hope you see the bigger picture.

[anmol]

[Arjun]

Not only is questioning his credentials uncalled for, but the specific credentials of his in the field of business and economics that were questioned made me , knowing what he happens to do in real life.

It is fair to question credentials - but that can never be, and it was never the intention to have that be, the QED to any argument. QED is only possible through the underlying merit in the argument...

I think it says a lot about why India is underdeveloped, when somebody supposedly senior in the world of business (as you seem to certify Sridhar to be) doesn't understand the criticality of growth to the economy.