India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 05 May 2013 16:38

Another theory now doing the rounds is that PRC want to review the agreement reached between NSA and Dai Binguo on border issues. MMS extending stay in Japan (without host approval might I add) to underline message to Beijing. i.e. the next move on the chess board by India.

member_23692 · Post by **member_23692** » 05 May 2013 17:03

I have not seen this suggested anywhere as a possible response to Chinese aggression.

Diplomacy.

Where are the Indian Diplomats ? Why are they not active in every Western Capital, every multilateral agency such as the UN and even the Middle East, aggressively presenting India's case ? While some may argue that it would not make a difference, that you cannot wake up an already awake person(which I agree with), Indian diplomats must put India's case on record and clearly convey to all and sundry that in this crisis, "either you are with us or against us". Where are the frantic and frenzied visits and/or shuttle diplomacy to World Capitals by the Foreign Minister, Indian National Security adviser, Defense Minister, prominent members of "Babudom" and special envoys, in order to create a sense of urgency and seriousness, even a crisis all over the world ?

Of course, effective diplomacy requires threat of a credible stick. It is generally accepted in this thread and other related threads of this forum (not by all, but by most), that India is not in a position to threaten an all out or a full scale war at the moment, for a variety of reasons. I happen to agree with that assessment. But I believe that there is another stick which India has which is credible and does not involve the threat of an all out war. It is called, "TEST and then THREATEN TO TEST MORE", in view of the Chinese incursion. Yes, let us go ahead and do about 4, 5 or 6 critical nuclear tests that are badly needed to further strengthen our nuclear arsenal. Then ask the West to put pressure on China to withdraw or else.........we will TEST again and again and again, while clearly stating that India had absolutely no intentions of testing whatsoever and had in fact internally decided to have a "moratorium for eternity", thereby virtually abiding by the CTBT, until this totally unexpected and brazen 19th century style "dagger in the back" invasion of our country.

What else was India to do ? Go for an all out war, which could turn Nuclear ?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 May 2013 17:07

rsangram ji,

this is true. All we need to do is to tell the Americans, "Please, ask Chinese to get out by tomorrow evening otherwise in order to placate the national anxiety, we would be forced to restart nuclear testing".

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 05 May 2013 17:11

mate Nukes with sagarika and let chakra loose.. Declare so in a public ceremony.. mate nukes with agni 1,2,3 and move them to locations near border.

start constructing nuclear shelters in metro cities. and best of all, start conducting public drills training people against missle raids and nuke attacks.

But first, government needs to change. Someone like LKA of 1980s and early 90s or as crazy as togadia should be Home minister.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 05 May 2013 17:19

Wait a month - that will probably be the last step after Japan visit. Preparations for that will be kicked off soon. Wait for NCA review.

member_23692 · Post by **member_23692** » 05 May 2013 17:24

RajeshA wrote:rsangram ji,

this is true. All we need to do is to tell the Americans, "Please, ask Chinese to get out by tomorrow evening otherwise in order to placate the national anxiety, we would be forced to restart nuclear testing".

Yes, but before we say that to the Americans, we should first conduct our 4, 5 or 6 required tests. The reasons are:

1) We need those tests anyway, and let us thank the Chinese for giving us an opening to do them

2) If we did not test first and just "threatened" to test, no one, least of all the Americans will take us seriously, considering the joke of the ruling establishment we have

3) Worse, they will take our threats seriously and start threatening us and putting pressure on us in return to prevent us from testing at all, and our government as weak kneed and jelly-spined it is, will easily succumb to that pressure, particularly if the pressure includes the threats to leak and expose some in our leadership as corrupt to the extreme and even traitors.

No, we should test first and then threaten to test more. If they could not do much to North Korea after their test, what can they possibly do to us ? If they threaten us with consequences such as economic embargoes etc, we all know how well those have been working against Iran and in that event, we can certainly escalate and threaten to test every two weeks until they lift any such embargoes.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 05 May 2013 17:30

Where are the Indian Diplomats ? Why are they not active in every Western Capital,

Though i don't see why we should be arguing in Western capitals. Yet i wrote this day before couple of pages back:

I wrote: Shiv Ji, there is another option and IMO is the most important. Whether the present day Institutions that Govern us consider it a part of our territory at all. The vacillation/ delays/ hand wringing may be emerging from that consideration at the highest levels of our institutions.

The institutional mindset has been changed with acquiescence on China as neighbor. Thus historically territories that had no people, just arbitrary lines drawn in capitals 2000 km away becomes a cause of dispute. The nearest mass settlements to the Aksai Chin area lie on the Indian side for millenia. Same with KM. Central and Eastern Tibet have had their own settlements. Lop Nor area in the 5th century had a settlement 'of 5000 people all following the religion of India' (in China's most famous travelers own words). Now when our FP folks on the border talks get bombed with some odd Chinese map. they are clueless. There is no backbone to reply. It is ultimately being left to outrage being generated in the media and public that thus leads to some kind of 'tough' response from the Indian officialdom. When one agrees with the indefensible, how can then one defend the defensible? That is exactly the situation Indian FP institutions are facing.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 05 May 2013 17:46

Just sharing this comment from VB from Chennai in ToI:

Oh, the Chinese are trembling in their shoes because Salman Khurshid will not be visiting them as scheduled, spelling DOOM for China! How will they react? Having given Khurshid acne by their 20-kilometre intrusion into our territory, they will now proceed to inflict hernia (100 km incursion), followed by eczema (200 km), psoriasis (500 km) and halitosis (1000 km), culminating in diarrhoea (2000 km) when they reach Khurshid's own bungalow. Shri Khurshid would do well to stock up on imodium and lactobacil...

member_23692 · Post by **member_23692** » 05 May 2013 17:55

harbans wrote:

Though i don't see why we should be arguing in Western capitals. Yet i wrote this day before couple of pages back:

While I share your disdain and contempt for Western Capitals, here is the reason why we should be arguing in Western Capitals.

1) We are not in a position to risk an all out war against China. So we are not "ALL POWERFUL". If we were all powerful or even just powerful enough to tackle China entirely on our own, we would NOT have to argue in Western Capitals, but we are not. Therefore, as long as we are weak, we need allies, even "half allies", even, "lip serving allies", hell, even "moth eaten allies". And our weakness has been glaringly exposed by the Chinese here and this is not the time for us to act all "arrogant" against the West and push them even further into the Chinese corner or even neutrality (Lord knows they are already far more inclined towards China vis-a-vis India). Why open up more fronts ?

2) Even if we know the West is hostile, why should we drop the appearance and pretense of being a civilized and respectable member of "the community of nations", particularly when it costs so little (just the cost of a few airplane trips) and it is not as if the Indian ministers, babudom, foreign ministry staff and National Security advisors are so busy doing productive work here that they will be taken away from performing their "valuable duties" to perform this diplomatic task. Diplomatically putting our case before the world is never a losing proposition. At least it cuts down on potential Western propaganda that "India had no case". It is precisely our not making a good case around the world on Kashmir that has done further damage to our cause in Kashmir.

3) Realistically, we all know that we WILL absolutely require American aid in the event of a full flare up with China.

4) If anyone today, can make the Chinese back off, it is American diplomatic pressure backed by its fleet movements in the Pacific, the South China Sea and even the Indian Ocean.

In any event, what does it cost us to argue our case, not as subservients but as equals and with dignity in Western Capitals or anywhere else ? I am not arguing for a Salman Khurshid visit to China to present his backside and ours.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 05 May 2013 18:26

While I share your disdain and contempt for Western Capitals,

Firstly nowhere have i expressed disdain for any Western capital! They do what is in their interests. My point was simple. That our Institutions are not convinced that these territories are ours indeed.

Rest of your post i know you are wrong. Power is always rooted in how much you desire something. If a billion people are convinced and want to do something genuinely, no one can stop them. Not China and not the US. All it depends on how convinced you are and what sacrifices you are willing to take for achieving your ends.

In any event, what does it cost us to argue our case,

Again re read my earlier post: I said are our Institutions convinced enough that we do have a case in the first place. Any arguments in Western, Eastern, Southern capitals is for later discourse.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 05 May 2013 18:29

RSangram,I wrote on some thread...there are so many on China,that we are militarily on weak ground now,need time to bolster our defences and prepare for a counter offensive,but that using Diplomacy,we can win this crisis (same word for opportunity in mandarin),by sending high-powered delegations to Taiwan with a view to recognition.Upping our official recognition of the Tibetan diaspora,its new equivalent of PM,raising a Tibetan military force with a view to using it in the future to free Tibet,banning all cheap and consumer specific Chinese goods,stapling visas for all Chinamen,providing tactical missiles to Taiwan and Vietnam,which can be armed with N-warheads,and establishing defence relationships with similar threatened nations in Asia.24X7 manufacture of mil. hardware,too.acquisition of essential weaponry and ammo from abroad.

Full scale production of N-warheads in the hundreds to match Chinese numbers is also needed for the future.

vic · Post by **vic** » 05 May 2013 19:13

My list possible leverages we can exercise against China:-

1. Reduce non-essential Chinese imports like toys, consumer durables. Impose duties, harass them at customs.

2. Ask Indian banks to refuse loans and LC facilities for Chinese imports.

3. Ban further/future import of Telecom and power plant imports.

4. Increase interaction with Taiwan

5. Increase military interaction with South East Asia and Japan

6. increase moral and diplomatic support in Tibet and XinXiang through Burma, CIS, Nepal and Bhutan

7. Prepare to re-start nuclear testing

8. Switch nuclear power projects for weapon grade Pu production

9. Intrude in Chinese areas

10. Change position on Tibet, as part of China

11. Reduce imports of defense goods and invest massively in better infrastructure.

12. Double indigenous R&D budget.

13. PM should visit Arunachal Pradesh.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 05 May 2013 20:03

Breaking News on Times Now at about 8:20 pm is that India and China will simultaneously withdraw troops from the DBO campsite.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 May 2013 20:11

If mutual troop withdrawal is true it suggests China is nervous about IA strengthening in Aksai Chin area and was testing whether we had intentions on AC or sending out a message not to have an intention on AC.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 05 May 2013 20:18

Why should we have to move our troops from our own area?
Is the Army going to patrol the area Chinese were at .. or not ??

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 05 May 2013 20:18

http://www.ptinews.com/

Withdrawal of Chinese and Indian troops from the face off point completed at 1930 hours today: Sources.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 05 May 2013 20:23

It is very interesting that just at 6:45PM that's 45 minutes before the simultaneous troop withdrawal, the Chinese side refused to move unless Indian troops withdraw first! and now we get news of simultaneous withdrawal? if they were 19 km inside what we hold as LAC then did Indian side moved LAC to west and allowed Chinese to define new LAC?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 May 2013 20:25

Virendra wrote:Why should we have to move our troops from our own area?
Is the Army going to patrol the area Chinese were at .. or not ??

From the conflict maps the region is disputed with Chinese and Indian patrolling crossing over. This means there will be no permanent holdings in the area from either side.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 05 May 2013 20:32

the bottom line is that the chinese do not accept the LAC

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 May 2013 20:39

Lalmohan wrote:the bottom line is that the chinese do not accept the LAC

Thats correct. This incursion was to preempt IA from decisively enforcing the LAC. We should not do anything till we have sufficiently bolstered the region militarily.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 May 2013 20:40

Good News if True , Atleast Diplomacy worked in this instance.

Now Kursheed can happy travel to Beijing and the Chinese PM can visit India both sides will claim all problem between India and China can be resolved peacefully and diplomatically.

MEA Strong !

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 May 2013 20:49

Oh So we have withdrawn from our areas?? How far China has withdrawn from their 19 Km incursion and how far have we withdrawn from our side?

Kursed visit to China is still doomed if there is no clarification. Gen BS is keeping studied silence on the issue though he was commanding Eastern Command , before taking over COAS, which is primarily a China centric command and he is supposed to be in better know of things about China. Should wait for some clarity on this as to how this happened and nothing could be done but to withdraw from our side.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 05 May 2013 21:07

chaanakya wrote:Oh So we have withdrawn from our areas?? How far China has withdrawn from their 19 Km incursion and how far have we withdrawn from our side?

Yeah that is what I don't like.
But the status quo of both armies patrols come and go like before is still tolerable for now.
We'll have to bolster our military and infra in that region at war footing now.

About the retreat, their presence means their tent. If there are any tents still like 4 or 7 kms inside, our patrols would find out soon enough. It isn't likely to happen though.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 05 May 2013 21:13

Hope there are no unreasonable conditions agreed to by India. We do need more presence and improved infrastructure in the area ASAP.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 05 May 2013 21:37

GoI must disclose the agreed conditions.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 05 May 2013 21:47

Lalmohan wrote:the bottom line is that the chinese do not accept the LAC

That gives us an opportunity to do the same.

Now we only need a nationalist government in place that looks at Indian interests first (surprise, surprise) and increases our military strength drastically.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 05 May 2013 21:48

abhijitm wrote:GoI must disclose the agreed conditions.

Fat chance of that happening. It will trickle out in due course anyway.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 05 May 2013 21:53

Indian express reporting

Under today's agreement, the Indian troops decided to move back to Burste, the point they were stationed at prior to April 15

is there anything else that has been agreed?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 May 2013 22:06

If Indians did not give up any thing and the Chinese meekly accepted the agreement .....then we can rule out MMS and MEA hand it this must be the Aliens who are often seen landing UFO in the region might have negotiated the deal...they need safe landing zone after all.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 05 May 2013 22:23

Supratik wrote:
Lalmohan wrote:the bottom line is that the chinese do not accept the LAC
Thats correct. This incursion was to preempt IA from decisively enforcing the LAC. We should not do anything till we have sufficiently bolstered the region militarily.

What timeframe are we talking about here.....in about 50 years? 30 years? Maybe never?
Do note that military bolstering will have to take place along the entire 3300 km border and not just DBO or some other god-forsaken rocky, cold corner of the border that they take a fancy to. Sometimes, I wonder if Chinese military, when they get bored, decide to throw a dart at a map of the LAC and then say, let's set up tents there and see what fun happens (am referring to all the incursions known and rumored).

1962 was 51 years ago. If the military bolstering has not happened in the last 51 years after a humiliating loss (and this was way before China took off on the industrial and economic front), why will it happen in the next 30 years- assuming things continue the same way- for both India and China. Though I quoted your post, I dont mean to vent at your post specifically, it is more general. The current situation shows that in some ways, things have reverted to 1961.

member_23692 · Post by **member_23692** » 05 May 2013 22:37

If the Chinese have truly withdrawn all the way back, then we missed this golden opportunity to test(nuke).

If on the other hand they are still in our territory, even a few meters, then we should test quickly, before they withdraw.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 05 May 2013 23:16

abhijitm wrote:GoI must disclose the agreed conditions.

Troops from both countries have withdrawn to respective permanent bases. That is essentially a victory for India.

Indian media has done very well in this episode, congratulations to them for maintaining the pressure and reporting the facts, which the international media also picked up (with a largely pro India stance).

If China was hoping to extract concession from India regarding not enforcing our side of the LAC, they have failed.

This episode will give a huge impetus for investing in India's capabilities against China: army, navy and air force. All those who were questioning whether China is truly hostile to India cannot now voice reasonable doubt on this count.

The Mountain Strike Corp needs to be buillt up as quickly as possible, and we need massive investment in roads, landing strips, hardened air shelters, Brahmos missile forces, mountain artillery, helicopters, more C-130 and C-17, etc. MMRCA contract and deliveries also need to be accelerated, and all MMRCA should be deployed for defence against China.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 May 2013 23:20

abhijitm wrote:Indian express reporting
Under today's agreement, the Indian troops decided to move back to Burste, the point they were stationed at prior to April 15
is there anything else that has been agreed?

So where did the PRC withdraw to? And why isn't that mentioned?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 05 May 2013 23:28

@nitingokhale: Govt officially not saying anything on what went into China agreeing to withdrawing from faceoff site

Wait till tomorrow morning for more. Lots of speculation as contradictory news articles going around. Beware

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 06 May 2013 00:05

Area under Chinese control rich in thorium

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/are ... in-thorium

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 May 2013 00:16

TOI says: Though there was no immediate official word on what were the exact terms of disengagement but sources said "there was some give-and-take" to resolve the face-off. "There had to be some face-saver for the Chinese," said a source.

Worked out exactly as mentioned before

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 06 May 2013 00:21

SriKumar wrote:
Supratik wrote: Thats correct. This incursion was to preempt IA from decisively enforcing the LAC. We should not do anything till we have sufficiently bolstered the region militarily.
What timeframe are we talking about here.....in about 50 years? 30 years? Maybe never?
Do note that military bolstering will have to take place along the entire 3300 km border and not just DBO or some other god-forsaken rocky, cold corner of the border that they take a fancy to. Sometimes, I wonder if Chinese military, when they get bored, decide to throw a dart at a map of the LAC and then say, let's set up tents there and see what fun happens (am referring to all the incursions known and rumored).

1962 was 51 years ago. If the military bolstering has not happened in the last 51 years after a humiliating loss (and this was way before China took off on the industrial and economic front), why will it happen in the next 30 years- assuming things continue the same way- for both India and China. Though I quoted your post, I dont mean to vent at your post specifically, it is more general. The current situation shows that in some ways, things have reverted to 1961.

No if you would like to take AC which India claims to be its own territory or at least enforce the LAC you need to be very strong militarily viz-a-viz China. I am not talking about a few tents. It will depend on economy, governance and will of the Govt. in power. The attempt to match China militarily started really with Vajpayee. So it has been only 15 years. How fast we can do it will depend on the above three factors.

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 06 May 2013 00:25

My feeling is India gets to do chest thumping and china gets the honey!
I don't believe China, under any circumstances, will pull back without achieving its minimum target whatever that is.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 06 May 2013 00:28

Vinod Ji wrote:My feeling is India gets to do chest thumping and china gets the honey!
I don't believe China, under any circumstances, will pull back without achieving its minimum target whatever that is.

Sir, why do you have so much confidence in China's power and so much confidence in India's weakness? Irrespective of the party line, one should not disrespect India's strength.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 06 May 2013 00:55

This is just an interval in a long drawn serial. Too early to call an all out victory. We will be tested again at different points along the LAC. This is going to be more fun to watch than anything on the western side of LAC on the TSP border.