After separatists' victory in Debaltseve, will Putin stick or twist?
If Russia and the rebels continue to breach the ceasefire or otherwise overplay their hand, they are likely to face a much tougher US response
Debaltseve
Ukrainian troops in tanks near Debaltseve. Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Simon Tisdall
Wednesday 18 February 2015
Vladimir Putin has got what he wanted. The Kiev government can call it a “planned retreat” if that makes it feel better, but the watching world will join the Russian president in viewing the Ukrainian army’s withdrawal under fire from the strategic hub of Debaltseve as a highly significant victory for the Moscow-armed separatists.
The critical question now is: will this be enough for Putin, or will he and the rebels press their advantage and try to further enlarge the territory under their control? Despite last weekend’s ceasefire, fighting has continued along other parts of the frontline, around Donetsk and at the government-held southern port city of Mariupol.
With Ukraine’s army on the run, with President Petro Poroshenko politically wounded after making big concessions to achieve last week’s Minsk II peace deal, and with Kiev’s divided western allies fulminating impotently and uncertain what to do, Putin may calculate that he can keep on going until he chooses to stop.
Separatist leaders make no secret of their ambition to carve out a viable, self-contained entity encompassing the three eastern oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv that could, in time, become an independent state. Moscow may prefer an autonomous region inside Ukraine that does Russia’s bidding – another so-called frozen conflict.
But if Putin and the rebels continue to breach the ceasefire or otherwise overplay their hand, they are likely to face a much tougher, escalatory US response. Barack Obama and Nato have avoided any military involvement so far, partly at the bidding of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, the EU’s lead mediator. With Kiev reiterating its calls for western weapons and material and Putin’s proxies running amok, this restraint cannot last much longer.
John Kerry, the US secretary of state, was on the phone to Moscow on Wednesday, warning of dire consequences. On Tuesday Joe Biden, the US vice-president, pointedly warned Putin to knock it off, and the Obama administration fiercely criticised Russian behaviour at an angry UN security council meeting.
Prodded awake by Washington, David Cameron unexpectedly waded in too. He urged European countries to stick together in facing down Moscow and not be afraid to jointly impose additional, painful economic sanctions – which is very much the American line.
It is unclear, too, how long Poroshenko can hold the line at home. He was forced to give much away in the Minsk talks – too much, according to some nationalist politicians. Now his forces have suffered a demoralising defeat. Some suggest he may try to reassert his authority by imposing martial law.
Semyon Semenchenko, a battalion commander and MP, accused the military command, and by implication Poroshenko, of betraying the country’s interests in Debaltseve. “We had enough forces and means. The problem is the command and coordination. They are as bad as can be,” he said on his Facebook page.
Even as the US and UK appear to be gearing up for a bigger confrontation, the Europeans are still desperately hoping Debaltseve will mark the de facto beginning of the ceasefire, not its end. Stephane Le Foll, a French government spokesman, said France would do everything it could to keep Minsk II alive. He hoped the separatists would now honour the deal. Some rebel leaders in Donetsk have indicated they will.
This approach may be characterised as either valiantly persistent or foolishly naive. Putin knows EU countries will avoid armed confrontation by all means, and are split on the question of tougher sanctions. Like all bullies, he despises weakness, and this may be what he sees in Franco-German attempts to keep talking.
He may decide to bank his winnings and call a halt. Equally, he could be tempted to push his luck and grab more territory.
For their part, the Americans
(and their British mouthpiece 
) are fast running out of patience. Merkel and Hollande, with only imperfect solutions available, are caught in the middle as never before. They may be the only two people standing between Europe and a wider war.
“The rest of the way we walked on foot because our car was totally broken," Sardarian said.
