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brihaspati wrote:The regional alliance will not form around the subcontinent - it will only form around Japan-Vietnam axis. Around India, Nepal, BD - yes even after hot love-making, and Pak, will lean towards PRC. Sri Lanka will stay neutral becuase of a different equation even if it has a very strong pro-China lobby.
Nepal is a bone of contention at the moment as PRC is trying to "Lebanonise" it.
But again these forces are not going to do anything to India really. Look at our forces compared to theirs.
Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Phillipines (these 3 already coordinate against PRC), SIngapore (already have several agreements and they have asked for our help since 1965!), Aus - Japs (just formed a new alliance against PRC with SF training, "intel pooling"). They will be on our side. US will be on our side as if India goes down, then nothing to stop them reaching the oil fields. Russia too.
As for Indian moves against China - or preparations - nothing much will come out of it at this stage, unless USA seriosuly decides to go against PRC, which is unlikely. The Indian camp is divided into two - and there are those who prefer China over USA. At the moment both camps are equal in strength - with the pro-China lobby tipped to increase further in strength [both the anti-US, Marxian, and Islamophile components add to the pro-China camp giving it a marginal edge over the pro-US group].
Nothing will come out of it? I am afraid you should read the news more often. Have you not read the article above? Have you not seen our defence moves for the next 5 years?
FYI, the ones prefering PRC are getting weaker by the day. As time goes it will be more clear that India will have more people siding with us and also the ones in India are growing weaker by the day. Give it 3 to 4 years.
It was your suggestion that what is given out for public consumption should not be relied upon that much. The article should fall in the same category. By the way - Oz tactical moves are more oriented towards stabilization rather than any aggressive commitment against PRC. If the "trade and investments rule all else" theory is correct - then there is little chance of Oz ever actually joining or manifesting concrete moves against PRC.
Nepal division within society is not going to mend within the next 5 years. There is a huge pro-PRC section. The real pointer - which I also agreed - was and is that primary convergence of hostile attitude towards PRC is centred around the Vietnam tract, not immediately around India in the subcontinent. We have Pak, BD, Myanmar, Malayasia quite actively likely to be on the PRC side. Indonesia has ties to both sides, and will be forced to play neutral.
If you don't plan to build up base presence on a long term basis - you cannot rely on the intervening straits and passages through Indonesian channels to be reliably open in case of hostilities to maintain pressure through a second front - when you may need all your resources to keep things stable around your homeland itself.
brihaspati wrote:It was your suggestion that what is given out for public consumption should not be relied upon that much.
Yup and it was clear this wasn't one of them because it was backed up by fact. The fact taht India has sent a warship to SE Asia every month. The fact that we are building a strategic partnership with Vietnam, the fact taht a base was offered in Vietnam, the fact that several IN ships have docked in Vietnam since their crisis started.
The article should fall in the same category.
Which bit? The fact that India has been offered a permanent base in Vietnam - which was mentioned by several sources, not just 1. The fact that India is actually investing and committing to expansion of forces in A&N? The fact taht India is almost going to confirm a permanent presence in ANOTHER SE Asian nation in the near future besides Vietnam.
By the way - Oz tactical moves are more oriented towards stabilization rather than any aggressive commitment against PRC. If the "trade and investments rule all else" theory is correct - then there is little chance of Oz ever actually joining or manifesting concrete moves against PRC.
Its called carrot stick policy - they trade and also build alliances against PRC. Just like how we trained with every SE Asian navy and with the US alliance against PRC, we also encourage trade at the same time. At the end of the day, war doesn't benefit anyone, its expensive and does no favours for anyone.
Nepal division within society is not going to mend within the next 5 years. There is a huge pro-PRC section. The real pointer - which I also agreed - was and is that primary convergence of hostile attitude towards PRC is centred around the Vietnam tract, not immediately around India in the subcontinent.
We have Pak, BD, Myanmar, Malayasia quite actively likely to be on the PRC side. Indonesia has ties to both sides, and will be forced to play neutral.
Pak - ok
BD - they'll stay neutral if push comes to shove, what can they do with their 40 odd tanks that they have anyway.
If you don't plan to build up base presence on a long term basis - you cannot rely on the intervening straits and passages through Indonesian channels to be reliably open in case of hostilities to maintain pressure through a second front - when you may need all your resources to keep things stable around your homeland itself.
I agree with you. Well, we are going to do it. Just a question of time now. Lets see how it goes. Our exercises with the Singapore Navy centre on the straits and ASW warfare at teh chokepoints.
I hope what you realise is that, our policies are just a continuation from the 90's.
BD's strength is not its 40 tanks, but its territorial advantage. It can and will easily help PRC presence in NE, by actively supporting the separatists without appearing to be actively supporting PRC in war, who will in turn be supported by PRC. In a real conflict, that can mean a great deal of disadvantage.
I guess I should also ask you to follow up and read up on the policy statements and projections from BD [and Myanmar and Malaysia and Oz and Singapore and Indonesian "policy" voices] about how they see their "advantage".
BD is the mouth of the Ganges. that itself is a huge strength. BD can have zero military, and still be a huge thorn on India's side. it's ability to sabotage NE, and its rabidly breeding population are the 2 things that BD will use to shaft India. these things aren't solved by military to military comparison. you need lot of strategic and policy-level effort to neutralize this advantages. they can be overt and covert.
brihaspati wrote:BD's strength is not its 40 tanks, but its territorial advantage. It can and will easily help PRC presence in NE, by actively supporting the separatists without appearing to be actively supporting PRC in war, who will in turn be supported by PRC. In a real conflict, that can mean a great deal of disadvantage.
Could be. But you know in todays warfare is not all about the army. Nature of warfare has changed, AF is now the most powerful tool. Besides, did you read the statement by the ULFA "foreign minister"? Did you read how weak they are today after numerous arrests and army raids?
I guess I should also ask you to follow up and read up on the policy statements and projections from BD [and Myanmar and Malaysia and Oz and Singapore and Indonesian "policy" voices] about how they see their "advantage".
In future please post these articles... In Oz, the previous govt is pro PRC, the current govt isnt.
What we need at the minimum in the next several years is our own militant constituency embedded within the establishments of our neighbors, chiefly Bangladesh and Nepal!
We want to be able to sabotage any plans of the pro-PRC constituency in both Nepal and Bangladesh, when it comes to war! We don't want state or non-state actors from these two countries to get involved in anyway whatsoever.
So if I were to make policy for India - I would set up two groups. One coterie assumes the most anti-Indian pro-Islamic pro-PRC stand, and projects as working actively against Indian interests. This coterie should assume the leadership of the whole anti-Indian militant establishment. The other group should be midway between antagonistic towards India and indifferent towards India. They should have a different focus as India, if possible. This group should be aligned with the anti-Indian militant establishment, but not part of it.
When war drums start sounding, the second group should put pressure on the main militant establishment not to get involved, and the allegedly anti-Indian pro-Islamic pro-PRC leadership coterie, but India sponsored, should give in to this pressure, and use that "pressure" to justify its hesitation!
We need to neutralize what awaits us from both Nepal and Bangladesh, when it comes to blows between India and China in the Northeast.
brihaspati wrote:BD's strength is not its 40 tanks, but its territorial advantage. It can and will easily help PRC presence in NE, by actively supporting the separatists without appearing to be actively supporting PRC in war, who will in turn be supported by PRC. In a real conflict, that can mean a great deal of disadvantage.
Could be. But you know in todays warfare is not all about the army. Nature of warfare has changed, AF is now the most powerful tool.
Could be. By that logic India does not even need its navy to dominate IOR. Its peninsula is one gigantic carrier. Elsewhere people seem to be trying to enforce "no-flying" zones and still not able to prevent ground forces going around.
So AF will take out the Chinese from air before entering NE. Good one. We do not need ground forces there then! Or in case the air campaign fails to prevent a few columns sneaking in, we will drop off the army by air - crossing "neutral" BD airspace - or a slight detour through Indian territory, and keep supplying them as such. In case the army fails we evacuate them by air pronto - or risk letting them fall prisoners to PLA. No problem!
No military supplies will be allowed through BD - apparently, as per the most "friendly" gov so far, as for the "transit". Maybe here is also some deep secret long term agreement to allow such supplies and troop movements - which we do not know and which will appear 4-5 years later?
Besides, did you read the statement by the ULFA "foreign minister"? Did you read how weak they are today after numerous arrests and army raids?
Oh! and you believe him? Can he please tell where Paresh babu is?
I guess I should also ask you to follow up and read up on the policy statements and projections from BD [and Myanmar and Malaysia and Oz and Singapore and Indonesian "policy" voices] about how they see their "advantage".
In future please post these articles... In Oz, the previous govt is pro PRC, the current govt isnt.
Thanks.
I am sure the strategic community is so much more aware of such statements and "articles" - than poor me. In case you cannot find references to dubious projections that favour China over India from the countries mentioned above, please do let me know.
Yes, both BD and Oz have a bipolar political community and ideology - especially with respect to PRC. Alternately they seem to influence policy, and there is as yet no clear cut trend emerging that these two extremities have converged to a stable, regime independent, attitude towards China.
Since you have "millenia" of historical knowledge. Surely you will remember what happened the last time PRC threatened us. We moved Agni 2 to the border and that seemed to make them back off.
Regarding using air power - did I say we need no troops? Did I say we need no navy? Lol Anyway, I wish you could speak to any military personel who will tell you how modern wars are fought. Oh wait... you can't trust him.
Well, if you can trust an ULFA militant in custody - I can at least make a try at listening to a "military" personnel! Did I say I do not "trust" the military? However your claim pointed to AF being able to take care of it all alone since you did not mention AF as part of the three that together determined outcomes but AF alone - whereas the very "unmilitary" me thought otherwise, that you still need coordinated presence of all three wings.
I had briefly considered including the "missiles" in my post as - the cure-all ["why need even the AF - missiles should do it"] but then dropped the idea. I can see that you have beat me to the bush. Congratulations.
Pakistani troops resorted to firing and violated the ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir five times in June and July, Defence Minister A.K. Antony said Wednesday.
There were two violations in June and three in July, he told the Rajya Sabha in a statement. The Pakistanis used small arms, machine guns and rocket launchers, he said.
X-posting -
India goes through a periodic and recurrent breakdown of polity as a preparation for cleaning the slate. As a young boy I had often raged and fumed at the general criminalization and devaluation of public life and services. This process cannot really be understood from close proximity. One needs distance and separation, even formal detachment of ties with day-to-day politics to understand why descent into chaos is a necessary part of the process for renewal.
India's problems are that it becomes a collective of special interests because of its traditions of "diversity" which is highly efficient on economic and associated supporting ideology terms. But at the same time no general coordinated, cooperative mode develops because we have never sat down to the task of creating an overarching objective to which all special interests must be subordinated. People of course have attempted it before, and traces remain in our ancient texts -but the task is a continuous one. Changing conditions generate new special interests all the time, and hence the task of creating overarching objective is also continuous - to keep special interests in check.
At this particular period - the internal special interests are administrative caucuses, business networks, semi-feudal rich peasantry and landlords, a political class for whom politics is profession and a source of income and personal power.
The external special interests acting are foreign powers loosely clustered around three major groups - the "west+white+Christian", China, Islamic.
The concurrent or dual origin - external and internal special interests - are the transnational criminal networks, global financial networks, Islamist and EJ networks, Marxist networks.
The response has so far been extremes of reaction - increasingly fractured, extreme inward looking closed subgroups, each trying to defend its special sub-interests and ready to ally with any other special interests if the other promises to protect this groups special interests - without any concern or thought about overall consequences for the collective of special interests. Thus we have closed jaati-varna combinations still insisting on special rights and exclusive identities, exclusive closed linguistic specialities, exclusive regional identities, exclusive religious claims, totalitarian as well as exclusive violent ideologies aiming to take over state power, biz interests and mercantile mentalities prepared to push for their special interests in foreign policy and internal dispensations under cover of trade and prosperity arguments, admin thinktanks and "experts" pushing for transnational interests that they identify with as their special interests, dynastic political mafia again preserving their exclusive special interests.
This should help us understand as to why India failed to prevent hostile international takeovers in the past and a period of internal progressive collapse became unavoidable where the leading heads of special interest groups were either destroyed or coopted and absorbed into invading regimes. The invaders never become "Indians" out of a necessity to remain another "special interest" group to claim exclusive right to rule. In time this dual process leads to space for a new interest group to arise which has the potential to form the overarching objective. The task is not easy and has not always been carried out successfully.
If this time around, the opportunity comes again after such an earthmover-excavator rollover - the lessons of history should be absorbed. The centres of special interests have to be crushed and then allowed to regrow as parts of a non-exclusive framework. The transition is impossible without some degree of authoritarianism.
------------added---------------
the dynastic succession should be seen as part of this enhancing process of chaos. There is a distinct possibility that the sis will take over at a later stage, which will temporarily be beneficial for the party. But eventually it is the sunset of the dynasty.
The crackdowns on AH are a necessary and desperate part of a wide ranging elimination of political "enemies" - including Modi, and BJP in general, [well MB of WB is also an enemy - dont be surprised]. These acts must be carried out now - and so we will see an intensification of these moves - so that the scion does not have to preside over such moves.
But I am not sure that Pak and pRC will play ball to this. They are increasingly hotting up internally - and both may seek a conflict with India as a diversion. In that case the current drive by the ruling regime and system may backfire as a divisive and narrow-minded policy.
either way, if the close coterie of INC is the only "dominant" force that is still alive when PRC+Pak attack us, then Nehru dynasty and entire P-sec brigade is done.
this is a double edged sword. on one hand, elimination of Nehru dynasty and associated coteries is a necessity. on the other, if Pak+PRC attack while NehruDyn is in control and other centers of power have been crushed, then India will suffer by losing territory. these mofos are incompetent enough not to be able to protect the country, at the same time, they won't be able to gather the masses to fight and defend b/c of their actions. the consequences of their actions will be that people on street will feel nothing but disgust and cynicism towards the nation's leadership. disastrous situation.
there is a crude saying in Telugu: "mundu ki poyina dhoudi ke, venakki poyina dhoudike." (Damned if you do, Damned if you don't.)
Chinese soldiers damaged a wall erected by India in the disputed area near Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh in an incident being termed as the most important one along the Sino-Indian border this summer.
A senior official said Indian soldiers promptly repaired the wall, and lodged a protest with the local Chinese military commander.
A senior official said the development, which took place a month ago, is the most serious incident along the Sino-Indian border this summer. During summer months, the two sides resort to various tactics to assert the disputed nature of the border. These include long patrols or drives through areas that each assert as disputed. However, it is not routine for each to damage other's property in the disputed areas.
A senior government official said the Chinese soldiers came across to the particular part of Yangtze where India has a wind-breaker wall, stretching for almost 200 metres, and damaged it. The wall, which is a few feet tall and from behind which Indian soldiers carry out occasional monitoring, is an old structure, he said.
The official said about a month ago the Indian side discovered that the Chinese soldiers had damaged the wall, by removing stones from it. He didn't say how extensive was the damage. He said the Indian side lodged a formal protest at a meeting of the local commanders. Indian soldiers also promptly rebuilt the wall, he said.
While the India-China border remains relatively peaceful, such nagging issues continue to highlight the disputed nature of the 4,057-kilometre Line of Actual Control between the two Asian giants.
The official said there have also been at least a couple of instances this summer when the Chinese soldiers tried to drive through the disputed area manned by Indian troops in the Finger Area in northern Sikkim. "Our soldiers stood their ground, and didn't let them go through," he said.
Officials said they do not see any "qualitative" change in the border situation this summer, compared to recent summers. But they added that they are worried about the slow pace of infrastructure development and military modernization. An Army proposal to set up a Mountain Strike Corps for the border is pending with the ministry of defence, while infrastructural developments such as road and rail links are far behind schedule.
In second ceasefire violation in two days, Pakistani troops reportedly fired on Indian posts along the LoC in Jammu & Kashmir's Rajouri sector injuring an Army jawan.
A senior Army officer said that on noticing some movement along the LoC in Keri, a patrol was sent out. "Around 5.20pm, the patrol was fired at from across the LoC," a defence spokesperson said.
the axe is falling on India. there is a concerted action by both Pak and PRC. few days ago, the exercise near Rajasthan border. now, continuous violations by Pak almost every day over the past 2 weeks and PRC is joining in. Is India ready? things are moving very rapidly. this is getting dangerous. there might be a two-frontal attack sooner than we might think.
But some are saying that US is beating Pak into submission - so that in the near future, decadal range - India might be pushed into accepting the responsibility of taking over Pak. On the other hand both these countries are increasingly facing internal dissent. They may not precipitate something right now - but they can do this continuously as part of a build-up for opportunist action in the 2012-2018 phase. Pak demoniacs have been salivating about 2012 shenanigans a lot. They could unleash something in their own fevered delusion.
cross posted from "Lokpal, Anna, Baba Ramdev" thread:
shiv wrote:
RoyG wrote:For some reason i feel emergency will be declared.
Good. That will really help clean up the system. Government offices will be looted and burned down. Government servants who do not join the movement will be lynched. People will stop paying taxes. Good. That is a good way forward. India of 2011 is not the India of 1975.
what are the reactions to Shahi Imam's call for Muslims to not support Anna, b/c of Vande Mataram??? how are the Urban dhimmis reacting to it? is there any shock and awe? or is ignore and hope that it goes away? it is interesting to see which position Urbanites take on this...
what are the reactions to Shahi Imam's call for Muslims to not support Anna, b/c of Vande Mataram??? how are the Urban dhimmis reacting to it? is there any shock and awe? or is ignore and hope that it goes away? it is interesting to see which position Urbanites take on this...
well - when it comes down to strict choices between two alternatives - thats when real positions come out. So when forced to choose between anti-corruption and Islam - the top theologian chooses Islam - according to his interpretation. Have to wait for Deobandis to shoot out a fatwa - the legal manifestation of an Islamic state in rashtryia power otherwise. It simply shows what certain ideologies have as their higher preferred values.
the recent happenings in Karnataka BJP and AP show that, in the Deccan, there are strong headwinds in favor of "rooted" candidates. the solid support for Yeddy by Karnataka people shows that they 1). Know Yeddy was a small time player who did it for political necessities more than a desire to build an empire, 2). strongly associate with a leader who shows he belongs to them and has the capability to lead.
in AP too, the T-movement and YS Jagan's rise show something similar. it is a pity that Jagan is an EJ who ultimately bats for the interests of his family and foreign interests.
Is there a new emerging "sentiment" in Deccan that is leading to the search for "rooted" political thinking", and away from Delhi controlled model like 2G??? if so, what effect will it have on Maharashtra areas which have strong association with Deccan?
either way, any newly emerging movement in Deccan is already compromised b/c of Jagan and EJ infiltration in AP. they now have a foothold on the East Coast. until AP people move towards an ideology which differentiates between Bharatiyas on one hand and the hatred for Bharatiya systems that characterizes EJ's on the other hand, there is no hope of Dakshinapath starting a process of cleansing Bharat.
and this search for a "rooted" leader is not confined to Deccan. the stable bases of Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Raman Singh, and possibly Mamata are an interesting trend. in UP, if there is any indication that Mayawati's political ideology is embracing a pan-GV thinking and is trying to adopt a "GV-rooted" image, then things will get really interesting.
I know what you mean about Islamists. but what about non-Muslim "common man" in Delhi? some middle class guy who works in some office? what are their reactions to this call?
In second ceasefire violation in two days, Pakistani troops reportedly fired on Indian posts along the LoC in Jammu & Kashmir's Rajouri sector injuring an Army jawan.
A senior Army officer said that on noticing some movement along the LoC in Keri, a patrol was sent out. "Around 5.20pm, the patrol was fired at from across the LoC," a defence spokesperson said.
the axe is falling on India. there is a concerted action by both Pak and PRC. few days ago, the exercise near Rajasthan border. now, continuous violations by Pak almost every day over the past 2 weeks and PRC is joining in. Is India ready? things are moving very rapidly. this is getting dangerous. there might be a two-frontal attack sooner than we might think.
I know what you mean about Islamists. but what about non-Muslim "common man" in Delhi? some middle class guy who works in some office? what are their reactions to this call?
Its more important to make money than react to anything - perhaps, in certain places. All ancient capitals or cities which were centres of virtual colonial powers - attract people/ and form networks which learn to shed any ideological commitments to any position. The opportunism once learned seems never to go out as a handy strategy.
devesh wrote:the recent happenings in Karnataka BJP and AP show that, in the Deccan, there are strong headwinds in favor of "rooted" candidates. the solid support for Yeddy by Karnataka people shows that they 1). Know Yeddy was a small time player who did it for political necessities more than a desire to build an empire, 2). strongly associate with a leader who shows he belongs to them and has the capability to lead.
in AP too, the T-movement and YS Jagan's rise show something similar. it is a pity that Jagan is an EJ who ultimately bats for the interests of his family and foreign interests.
Is there a new emerging "sentiment" in Deccan that is leading to the search for "rooted" political thinking", and away from Delhi controlled model like 2G??? if so, what effect will it have on Maharashtra areas which have strong association with Deccan?
either way, any newly emerging movement in Deccan is already compromised b/c of Jagan and EJ infiltration in AP. they now have a foothold on the East Coast. until AP people move towards an ideology which differentiates between Bharatiyas on one hand and the hatred for Bharatiya systems that characterizes EJ's on the other hand, there is no hope of Dakshinapath starting a process of cleansing Bharat.
and this search for a "rooted" leader is not confined to Deccan. the stable bases of Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Raman Singh, and possibly Mamata are an interesting trend. in UP, if there is any indication that Mayawati's political ideology is embracing a pan-GV thinking and is trying to adopt a "GV-rooted" image, then things will get really interesting.
It is a very old reaction of regions. Whenever they feel the centre is going down the drains, the regions rally around a local identity and "roots". A kind of hedging against uncertainties.
Yeddyurappa no longer enjoys a semblance of "solid support". BJP did well to discard him as he was a liability. "Rooted" or "non-rooted", real test of leadership comes after power is gained.
In general, it's good to see political parties willing to discard the chaffe no matter how fiercely they swear loyalty to ideology or how much vote bank clout they wield. Same applies to yeddy as well as ysr.
The sea change in south is that people seeing through identity politics and demanding real values from their leadership.
Bji, just as we have a 100k foot level view of geography I want you to look at the history and evolution of Great Britain, US and India. The interconnections and linkages between these three since the advent of Sir Thomas Roe.
China-Pak actions must be seen in the context of the imminent withdrawal of the US from AfPak region. It is a historic moment in history - because it represents the end of Western ability to invade Asia. It is a bigger moment than the fall of Berlin wall.
The resulting vacuum is drawing in all sorts of people, China being one of them. Chinese Pak military exercises are an effort by pak to show strength to India. As usual, pak is boasting of borrowed strength. China is intent on replacing US as the primary security gauranteer to pak against aggression by India, but China cannot replace the other roles that US was playing - namely, controlling and funding various Islamic factions, regulating the drug trade, and keeping PA on a short leash.
Once US leaves permanently, pak will have:
1. a free hand against India,
2. free hand to promote Islamic fundamentalism and parties
3. free hand in Afghanistan
US kept these desires of pak in an (uncomfortable) balance along with its own agenda. Since China will not be able to control pakistan on these factors, pak will feel free to destabilise the subcontinent. This will create pressure on future GOI to respond in kind. If India does respond, China will either have to stand up for pakistan (face saving) or accept Indian domination of pak (slink back over the Himalayas). Neither case is satisfactory for China because it would neither like India to stabilize the neighbourhood, nor directly confront India on its own (or with Pak).
IOW, China will find itself sucked into a battle it did not want, but with far less leverage than US to manage this conflict. Interesting times for the Panda.
China is headed for turmoil. I could be fed agitprop - collating different versions, points to some common underlying themes the individual versions themselves may not be aware of. There are several party factions struggling for power. This has both ideological, personal as well as regional [and origins - multiple generations in the party or neophytes] aspects of struggle. The new middle class also has realized its power within this factional fighting, and is being seen as a potential "class" for a bid for power by at least one party faction.
But from my understanding of the Chinese process of social uprisings, changes led by the middle class alone remains incomplete, and often unsuccessful. A neo-Maoist faction is trying to revive the early radicalism and appeal to the increasingly disgruntled regional elite [and of course disgruntled commons] in a counter-bid for power.
The PLA and the party both has factions, although it is not so apparent in the case of the PLA. Both factions will be forced to resort to slogans of nationalism - which therefore is likely to turn towards ultra-nationalism. This is where south China Sea and Himalayas come in. Overall, it is less risky for them to have a proxy war in the south China sea rather than directly take it out on India. But the Paki Occupation Government is getting desperate. PRC is rather cold at this moment to pleas of racheting up the pressure on India from the Pakjabis. But Pakjabis can start up something unilaterally and then try to blackmail the Chinese - who might be in an impossible dilemma. They lose if they come, and lose if they do not come.
I would say a Pakjabi adventure on India and PRC coming to their help or not, would be good either way. More because it will lead to political bakclashes within India, than because there would be any quick decisions.
ramana wrote:A great man said
"You can analyze the past, but you have to design the future!"
What about creating a situation where Pakjabis attack, and they are allowed to be seen as gaining ground initially? Without some initial success the closet affiliations - on either side of the political/national divides will not come out. Doodh ka doodh - paani ka paani - sav kuch ho jaye. There is no clarity now and too much hedging of bets on all sides.
ramana wrote:A great man said
"You can analyze the past, but you have to design the future!"
What about creating a situation where Pakjabis attack, and they are allowed to be seen as gaining ground initially? Without some initial success the closet affiliations - on either side of the political/national divides will not come out. Doodh ka doodh - paani ka paani - sav kuch ho jaye. There is no clarity now and too much hedging of bets on all sides.
These are old methods. New paradigm demands both Genhu and Ghuun to be grinded and grilled together using iron method.lett Upparwala sort them out separately.
Last edited by Prem on 31 Aug 2011 02:29, edited 1 time in total.
With what Premji? How do you know that the iron is okay? That it has not been adulterated already with the wrong alloys? So that at the right time the weapon fails wrongly. Kutaneeti in preparation for the battlefield is necessary.
To prepare and use the right kind of metal is Indian historical internal problem/weakness . Our governing bodies give no glimpse of any thought, plan or working toward neutralizing long term obvious threats.
Obviously some Russians are worried . I can't believe in my wildest dreams that India would be even thinking along these lines. I thought it some jingo wet dream. I am impressed by me. Ha ha.
A question was raised during the conference about a possible immigration of a considerable part of the Indian population to Russia. Alexander Apokin, an expert with the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis particularly stated the following: "If some people in India will find money and labor resources to work in Russia, it will be a promising development of events. Hundreds of millions of people will be able to find work."
It is not the first time when Indian officials talk about a possibility of sending millions of Indian nationals to Russia. In 2010, Indian officials offered to simplify the migration regulations with Russia. They also say that some countries suffer from climate change and need to redirect their human resources to other countries of the globe which suffer from the shortage of their own human resources.
added: Equally impressed by people like you and others
Last edited by SwamyG on 31 Aug 2011 20:46, edited 1 time in total.
Obviously some Russians are worried . I can't believe in my wildest dreams that India would be even thinking along these lines. I thought it some jingo wet dream. I am impressed by me. Ha ha.
The tone of the article in its second half is sounding protectionist. IMO the Russian strategic community is probably welcoming this move as a way of deal-making with India to get a foothold in the southern IOR in addition to the usual Indian investments in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Irkutsk Oblast and other former Buddhist strongholds.
Effective way for the USSR's legacy state to finish unfinished business with respect to Anglo-Saxon realms.
The author of a piece opining that Indian male immigrants to Russia would solve the demographic problem comes to mind.
Talking about Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent, here is something to ponder.
1. The future of the subcontinent depends on who proactively takes lead in defining what its future should be (clear goals and objectives), defining a strategic plan to achieve those goals and objectives and then executing that plan, step by step over a period of time. There are other steps in between, including constant monitoring and adjusting the plan and execution strategy based on this constant monitoring.
2. India being the dominant power in the subcontinent (at least so far), should be the logical entity to proactively do what I menionted in point #1 above.
3. India, by history, nature, religion, societal make up and maybe other reasons too, is not a proactive power. It is a passive power. Does not mean that there have not been instances where it has acted proactively, but they are few and far between.
4. Indian security, since its independence, has largely depended not on its own proactive stance, even within the narrow sphere of its armed forces strategy, but on geopolitical balance of power followed by a Western vision of maintaining world order through perpetuating territorial status quo in the world (certainly the subcontinent), which has so far tended to create a stalemate which roughly freezes the national borders and doesnt allow borders to change easily
5. Since India's security has more or less depended on these external factors over several decades, its people have been lulled into a certain complacency, which has worked to further the interests of the extreme corrupt and regressive elements within the Indian society, as represented by the Indian National Congress and even worst elements like the Left, Mayawati, Lalu, Karuna and Mulayam. These elements have portrayed to the general population of India that all this nationalistic talk by the nationalists of imminent danger from Pak or China or elsewhere is just talk to promote their own "nefarious", "upper caste" and "communal" agenda, that there has not been any major dilution of Indian territorial integrity under the Congress rule of more than 60 years (yeah, there was that small matter of China in 62, but it is the distant past and there were "special" reasons for that debacle).
6. In the meantime, the Indian National Congress has lead an agenda of promoting the worst traits within the Indian society and bringing those into the mainstream by legitimizing corruption, non-rule of law, criminality, theft, violence, in order to perpetuate its rule. By legitimizing the fundamentally illegitimate, the Indian National Congress along with its even worst sidekicks, has successfully perverted the value system of our nation and in effect destroyed the basic fabric of our society.
7. The well meaning and nationalist forces share the blame, as they have not successfully been able to come up with an alternative narrative, which is attractive enough to different sections of Indian people, particularly the Dalits and even more particularly the Other Backward Classes (which constitute a very large percentage of Indian population). In fact, these nationalist and postive forces have been unable to come up with an attractive narrative even for a very narrow core of forward castes, where an overwhelming numbers of those can rally around or coalesce. While it is much easier to corrupt than to come up with an attractive positive agenda, the task of the well meaning people and nationalist was uphill to begin with and therefore, deserving of some sympathy, but not much.
8. Since it is far more difficult to have a postive, longer term vision and translate this vision into an attactive narrative for many different sections of the population, the one nationalist dispensation that represented some "halfway", "limping", sort of positivity, namely, the Sangha Parivar, succumbed to defeatism and gave up on coming up with anything positive and nationalistic. Instead, it too decided to go for short term power grabbing, even if it meant only gaining power in certain very small minority of states, by tactically following the corruption model so magnificently pioneered by the Indian National Congress and its sidekicks.
9. What most posters on BRF miss and therefore indulge in delusional and wishful thinking, is that as we speak, as of 2011, there is not even a single alternative, positive narrative in India to compete with all the negativity and destructive narrative put forward by the Indian National Congress and its cronies. In other words, the positive minded are not even organized into a small group anywhere in India. In actuality, what is needed is an overwhelmingly superior narrative with an overwhelmingly superior force that should come from the grassroots, which will smother and kill of the negative strains in the Indian society, as exemplified and typified by the Indian National Congress culture. Let us open our eyes and realize that there isnt even a small group anywhere in the country, leave aside this multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, mutli-regional, multi-community behemoth that is required to counter it. The BJP, I contend, at this moment is more in the corner of the regressive elements, meaning it is more on the other side and therefore is a help to the Indian National Congress, than its foe, exceptions like Narendra Modi, notwithstanding.
10. There is another delusion that most of us suffer from, and it is understandable, as after all, what can one do, when one is in such a hopeless situation, other than to dream and pray and live in a fantasy world (the real world of India is too painful for most of us to handle). That is that somehow, somewhere, when things will get really really bad, all of a sudden a new leader will emerge, a new "avatar" of Lord Vishnu, like He has always come in the past, and then lead us all into the promised land. There is no logic behind it, it will just happen. Anyone who questions this leap of faith is a Paki sympathizer or better yet, a "Dhimmi". So, anyone who advocates a realistic assessment of the situation and proposes that no matter how bad the situation is, we can fix it and come out of it, if we worked really really hard, unite in positivity and make sacrifices, huge sacrifices, multi-generational sacrifices towards the cause, is a person with slave mentality. Why ? because everyone realizes that an essential part of any alternative postive narrative has to involve a complete doing away with our narrower caste, regional, linguistic and sectarian identities. Something that none of us, even the most educated, the most enlightened and the very best of us is willing to do, with a very few exceptions. None of us really want to completely forget about all our sectarian history and baggage and merely convert to being a "Hindu Indian", no matter where we were born, how we were born, what we were born to and where we are coming from. Well, if we dont convert into this one "Hindu Indian" and lose all our memory of the past, we will be forced to convert into one "Muslim Indian" and lose all of our glorious history and more importantly all of our future.
. I can't believe in my wildest dreams that India would be even thinking along these lines. I thought it some jingo wet dream. I am impressed by me. Ha ha.