I was trying to understand what this whole pak-china corridor is about. The whole idea seems to be:
- iran-pakistan pipeline.
- developing Gwadar port.
- Pakistan china economic corridor.
This is the Oil logistics:
This is the proposed Iran-Pakistan pipeline with possible extension to Bhaarath:
This is the proposed Pakistan-China corridor:
Iran is the source of Oil. China is the major market for Oil. The next major market is Bhaarath. Pakistan does not have the money to pay for Iran's oil. So, either that Iranian oil has to be paid by Bhaarath or China.
Pakistan hopes to collect rent and be merry and if possible do some blackmailing if and when the time comes.
Bhaarath seems to be not going ahead with Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline because it simply does not trust Pakistan.
China which is playing the whole game needs to be understood. China wants to enter the Indian ocean for the following reasons:
- China has been curtailed in the south- china sea using Taiwan, Japan and South-Korea by US.
- China wants to be able to enter the Indian ocean to be able to get logistics for its imports(fuel) and exports avoiding the straits of Malacca.
- China would like to contain Bhaarath using its neighbours. String of Pearls.
String of pearls serves dual purposes for China:
- contains Bhaarath.
- eases the logistics of China.
From China's perspective, there are two ways of entering Indian ocean:
- Myanmar - Bangladhesh.
- Pakistan.
Pakistan route is a more risky venture as it passes through high altitudes and high risk environment. So, perhaps, China tried to build its logistics via Myanmar and Bangladhesh first as part of Plan A. Pakistan route was perhaps the plan B.
Now, about Pakistan - China economic corridor:
The only way Pakistan can earn money in this scheme is if China pays them large rents for long time period for using the infrastructures which are supposedly going to be built by chinese labourers, chinese engineers and chinese money for chinese purpose.
Iran won't mind pakistan taking rent. Because the cost would get passed on to the consumer. The consumer is either China or Bhaarath. In this case, it is China. So, either this corridor can be economical for China or profitable for Pakistan. But not both simultaneously. If its really profitable for Pakistan, then China would be taking losses. If China is making profits, then pakistan won't get much out of it.
From Bhaarath's perspective, this is a threat because:
- its part of Bhaarath containment policy by China.
- China gets into Indian ocean threatening the position of Bhaarath.
Bhaarath seems to have initiated a few counter-measures to this:
- raising the issue diplomatically because the logistics seems to be going through Pakistan occupied Kashmir.(short-term counter-measure)
- developing the Chahabar port in Iran. (medium-term counter-measure)
- Balochistan freedom. And if we are to believe the pakistanis, they say that even Sindh is going the route of Balochistan. (Long-term counter-measure)
If Balochistan and Sindh secede from Pakistan, then Pakistan will not have access to Indian Ocean. But, its a long shot. In the meanwhile, Bhaarath seems to be developing Chahabhar port to counter the chinese development of Gwadar.
