Siachen News & Discussion

[Y I Patel]

Yes, Bahadur is east of 5770 - thanks for catching it!

Also, thanks for your remembering me and for your kind words Main reason for posting less is that I did have a lot more value to add then than I do now.

[Y I Patel]

And this need not be the end of it either. India can choose to keep advancing at a glacial pace, and leverage the sheer mass of its presence to displace Pakis one peak at a time. Time, terrain, and technology are all reliable allies in this. Take technology for instance. Ironically, by raising environmental awareness about the pollution at the battlefield, Pakistan has forced the "play by the book" Indian Army to innovate and bring in technology like solar panels and windmills which have the potential to dramatically alter the battlefield. Think about it - everything so far has been done by sheer force of willpower, through an almost unimaginable ability to endure and carry out the country's mission. But plentiful energy sources not tied to a cumbersome and vulnerable distribution network can beget force multipliers like battlefield surveillance radars, heated shelters, even oxygen generators. There is more - electrical winches can be used to transfer heavier weights over sheer cliffs, much heavier weights than possible to be carried by an oxygen deprived soldier whose main attention needs to be devoted to safely getting to his post in the first place. Greater stores of food and ammunition can be accumulated, possibly oxygen generators can be located at larger posts for medical emergencies.

I've quoted my thoughts on technology to maintain continuity, but as regards the other two - time and terrain - I'll use the specific example of Navdeep Top (pt 5770.)

No less than an ex Army Chief has compared its importance to Bana Top, and Google Earth makes it possible for us to understand just why. The feature absolutely dominates the terrain around it, especially the gorges leading southwest to Chalunka and West to Goma. The initial stage of the conflict, post Meghdoot, must have been like the game Risk where players have to scramble to capture and strengthen key territory. As in the game, there are just too many squares for any one player to control, and in the southern glaciers area, close to NJ9842, the contest has always been a lot closer than in the other areas where India beat the Pakis to the punch. Pt5770 is a perfect example, where an entire line of access had been unavailable to India. The gorge from Chalunka affords a line of communication to India that is every bit as good as the Paki access through the gorges leading northeastwards from the Ghyari valley. But the Pakis were able to keep it blocked, all the way till 1999 when it was finally wrested. Capturing this vital feature now opens up the access to southern glaciers area and secures the Shyok valley in the Chalunka complex. It also raises the exciting possibility of creeping towards the northwest and capturing some heights overlooking the Ghyari valley. This should be India's goal for the immediate future, but slowly enough to make sure Pak continues to bleed white over time. However, matters could come to a head and India might need to precipitate this, say, if Pak decides to lease parts of Gilgit/Baltistan to China.

But as we consider these heady prospects, here is an important point to underscore: India's case for continued militarization of the Saltoro Range is no longer merely defensive - now the Saltoro Area of Operations has become a dagger pointed at Paki Occupied Gilgit Baltistan. And the biggest takeaway of all is that it is no longer in India's interest to abide by an AGPL. Delineating an AGPL is to sanctify Pakistan's control over the scraps that remain, and it is not in India's interest to continue to do so. The phrase "and thence northwards to the glaciers" may have been through strategic myopia, but if Pak can interpret it lead Northeast to Karakoram Pass, India too can play the game and now make the line go Northwest towards the Kunjerab Pass!

[partha]

This is disturbing. There are so many WTFs in this article.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-wh ... al-2543556

When MK Narayanan stalled Siachen deal

In 2006, the stage was set between India and Pakistan to clinch a deal over the issue of Siachen — the world's highest battlefield where the climate has claimed more lives than gunfire — but the process was scuttled by India's then National Security Advisor (NSA) MK Narayanan, former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran has claimed.

In his forthcoming part-history-part-memoir titled How India Sees the World, Saran has claimed that he and his Pakistani counterpart Riaz Mohammad Khan were close to breakthrough. He has claimed that the deal was even consented by the Indian Army, and mentioned its finer points, including current positions of the forces of the two countries, the positions to which they would withdraw, a schedule for redeployment, and a joint monitoring mechanism to prevent mutual intrusions. All this would have been recorded in an annexure to the main agreement.

In their tumultuous relations, India and Pakistan had already missed two possible deals on the Himalayan territory — located as high as 20,000 feet above sea level — in 1989 and 1992.

"To give the document additional strength, we insisted, and the Pakistani side agreed, that both the agreement and the annexure will be signed, and that the main agreement will explicitly declare that the annexure had the same legal validity as the agreement itself," records Saran, who also worked as adviser to then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Of course, why wouldn't they agree? We are giving them what they want so why wouldn't they agree? Time and again GoI makes the mistake of trusting Pakistan. Will we ever learn? Sooner an IG like leader gets elected and takes care of Pakistan once for all, the better it will be.

Prime Minister Singh, who was keen on the agreement had directed the Foreign Secretary to obtain a consensus from all key stakeholders. "I did many rounds of consultations, both at the senior bureaucratic and ministerial levels in the ministries of defence, home and finance (whose members are part of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS)," he said.

Saran claimed that then Army Chief General JJ Singh and the chiefs of all intelligence agencies were also brought on board.

The deal was consented by the Army and its intricate technical details including the points and timing of redeployment and also the phases in which it would have been implemented and the structure of the monitoring mechanism were actually worked out by the Director-General Of Military Operations.

After all this exercise, when approval from the CCS was seen as a mere formality, the deal was aborted after Narayanan launched a bitter offensive. The draft agreement, along with the annexures, had been put together in a note to the CCS for approval so that it could be presented as a proposal from the Indian side at the India–Pakistan Defence Secretary-level talks scheduled for May 2006. The note had been examined and agreed to by all relevant stakeholders and agencies. The CCS approval was, therefore, expected to come as a matter of course.

"When the CCS meeting was held on the eve of the Defence Secretary-level talks, the NSA launched an offensive, saying that Pakistan could not be trusted, and that there will be political and public opposition to any such initiative and that India's military position in the northern sector vis-à-vis both Pakistan and China will be compromised. General Singh, who had happily gone along with the proposal in its earlier iterations, now decided to join Narayanan in rubbishing it," records Saran in the book.

It's scary to think that it's always that one bureaucrat that saves the day for us. Remember Vivek Katju too scuttled a stupid deal with Pakis.

In the meeting, Home Minister Shivraj Patil and Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee decided to play it safe and proposed the deferment of its consideration until further study. The Prime Minister, who was keen to see the deal through, chose to keep silent. In the ensuing exchange of words, Narayanan, went further suggesting that Siachen be taken off the agenda of India–Pakistan talks entirely and that this should be communicated to the visiting Pakistani Defence Secretary at forthcoming talks. At this stage, Mukherjee stepped in to support Saran. He pointed out that Rajiv Gandhi himself had agreed to include Siachen in the India–Pakistan dialogue.

So F*ing what? Is Rajiv Gandhi some kind of God? Just because he included Siachen in the dialogue, should we continue doing so forever? What kind of stupidity and sycophancy is this? I thought Pranab Mukherjee was better compared to other Conmen but doesn't look like it.

Saran recalls that in 2007, when he visited a couple of high-altitude posts at the Siachen Glacier as part of a border infrastructure survey, he informally asked stationed officers it they would support a mutual withdrawal by India and Pakistan from the glacier. "The answer was an unqualified yes. I then asked whether we could risk Pakistani occupation of the area vacated by us. The officers replied that nothing better could happen because the Pakistanis would suffer 'what we have been going through these past several years," he records in the book. The opportunity to finally resolve a long-standing issue and a constant source of bitterness in Pakistan was lost.
Strange.

Saran has also referred to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and President Pervez Musharraf's back channel and confidential talks on Kashmir at their January 2004 meeting in Islamabad, which continued during Manmohan Singh's era as well. He also mentions another tiff with Narayanan, when he tried to rock the boat of the Indo-US nuclear deal. Even though being chief negotiator, Narayanan had excluded him from an apex committee consisting of the Department Of Atomic Energy and PMO officials.

"It often turned out that I was negotiating with William Burns on one side and the PMO on the other. Narayanan became the interlocutor between the negotiating team and the DAE, which seemed to be convinced that we were about to sell the store to the Americans," he added.

What's this itch of every PM to make a peace deal with Pakis instead of working on finishing them off? Are they after Nobel Peace Prize?

[pankajs]

More for the history books ... like the mahatma but of course the nob@ll makes it sweeter.

[Schmidt]

Kudos to MK Narayanan and General JJ Singh for scuttling this stupid deal

Somehow our diplomatic corps seem to be full of slimy mofos

During the book launch on Wednesday, General (Retd) J.J.Singh, who was also in the audience, asked Mr. Saran whether it would have been possible, in fact, to “trust Pakistan”, and ensure Pakistani troops wouldn’t return to occupy positions in Siachen.

“In matters of international diplomacy, it is a convergence of interests rather than trust that counts,” Mr. Saran replied.

So this idiot coolly discounts the issue of Paki trustworthiness and instead points to some imaginary convergence of interests

If the Pakis had then broken the treaty and occupied the heights , he would have justified it anyway saying this is a punishment for them !!

[arvin]

[What's this itch of every PM to make a peace deal with Pakis instead of working on finishing them off? Are they after Nobel Peace Prize?

Generational issue of people born before 1947.

[malushahi]

The gorge from Chalunka affords a line of communication to India that is every bit as good as the Paki access through the gorges leading northeastwards from the Ghyari valley.

which itself was built one brick at a time on a foundation laid by col chewang rinchen, mvc (bar). this was THE game-changer in ssn.

now make the line go Northwest towards the Kunjerab Pass!

hope springs eternal

[ramana]

Kudos to MK Narayanan and General JJ Singh for scuttling this stupid deal

Somehow our diplomatic corps seem to be full of slimy mofos

During the book launch on Wednesday, General (Retd) J.J.Singh, who was also in the audience, asked Mr. Saran whether it would have been possible, in fact, to “trust Pakistan”, and ensure Pakistani troops wouldn’t return to occupy positions in Siachen.

“In matters of international diplomacy, it is a convergence of interests rather than trust that counts,” Mr. Saran replied.

So this idiot coolly discounts the issue of Paki trustworthiness and instead points to some imaginary convergence of interests

If the Pakis had then broken the treaty and occupied the heights , he would have justified it anyway saying this is a punishment for them !!

Bravo to MKN on this matter.

PVNR used to keep the MEA out of discussions as they would bring global/strategic factors to submit to blackmail.

[nam]

“In matters of international diplomacy, it is a convergence of interests rather than trust that counts,” Mr. Saran replied.

Ofcourse someone forgot to tell him, Siachien is not a 5 star hotel, where these worthies discuss "diplomacy". Convergence would decided by Paki Army.. not Paki MEA.

I have near heard of these morons discussing about areas which are under Paki/Chini control.

The deal making is always about areas under Indian control. Peace park, area swapping, border not understood by chinis etc etc.

So why do we want to resolve Siachien?

[Rakesh]

For Nobel Peace Prize saar. Apparently MMS was after that...

[nam]

MK Narayan being the sole reason the deal failed, sounds like a story made up. Narayan was a Gandhi family retainer and there is no way his opposition would have been considered. He would have been pushed to governorship much earlier, if he was standing in the way of Nobel prize and glory to Sonia Gandhi. Saran is probably settling a personal score.

The scuttling must have been from the Paki side and this moron is trying to cover it up that they fell in a trap. The Pakis must have seen an opening for a larger bargain and tried to push their luck further.

This was the same time of close to deal thing with Musharaff. joint administration and what not. Once there is joint admin of J&K, our access to Siachien would be cutoff. If Pakis occupied it afterwards, we would not have been able to move the troops in to Siachien.

Musharaff would have got, what he could not by using his SSG guinea pigs, when he was trying to capture peaks.

[ramana]

MK Narayan being the sole reason the deal failed, sounds like a story made up. Narayan was a Gandhi family retainer and there is no way his opposition would have been considered. He would have been pushed to governorship much earlier, if he was standing in the way of Nobel prize and glory to Sonia Gandhi. Saran is probably settling a personal score.

The scuttling must have been from the Paki side and this moron is trying to cover it up that they fell in a trap. The Pakis must have seen an opening for a larger bargain and tried to push their luck further.

This was the same time of close to deal thing with Musharaff. joint administration and what not. Once there is joint admin of J&K, our access to Siachien would be cutoff. If Pakis occupied it afterwards, we would not have been able to move the troops in to Siachien.

Musharaff would have got, what he could not by using his SSG guinea pigs, when he was trying to capture peaks.

+1008. Most likely thing.
And JJS was part of the chain of succession gang.
Where would he have the guts to oppose MMS?

[Karan M]

Guys this whole thing is theater. I encourage everyone to read up on Kunal Vermas book on 1962. It shows what happens when sycophants try to curry favour with a leader who is obsessed with politicking.

Similarly, here MMS is part of one clique. He has supporters like Saran who think they will get a share of the Allbull peace pipe via cushy post GOI sinecure, the usual Guverner waghera. Because he has the ear of the PM, he is meddling in military affairs, claiming he spoke to the troops etc. Shades of VK Menon and Mullick of the IB in 1962.

NSA represents another coterie. MK N would not want Saran to bow out with all the applause. So political play.

JJ S by all accounts was no great IA chief - designer chief was a sobriquet used. People will remember what it was for. However, JJ would not have wanted to go back to the IA having given away Siachen. All the guvernerships will not get him the izzat loss in the retired veterans group. Folks will remember the spirited campaign run by veterans over Siachen!

Kudos. Organizational pride beyond one individual indeed. They spoke up against Tyagi & Kanwal as well when needed.

So JJ Singh & MKN would have struck a tactical deal to stall the whole deal. Each for his own interests. MK N was no great fan of the IA. His prior statements on Cold Start clearly indicate an independent, well provisioned IA was not to his liking. His advisory position to the G-clan is well documented. So he would not be swayed by any great nationalist position I am afraid, he was above such "petty" things, in the power structure.

Pranab & Patil would likely play the middle ground.. hey we supported ya MMS but hey what cud we do. That sort of thing.

All power plays, zero izzat, zero concept of national aims. Just plain Gods grace we muddled through this dispensation.

[Kashi]

Pranab & Patil would likely play the middle ground.. hey we supported ya MMS but hey what cud we do. That sort of thing.

But according to the report, Pranab stepped in saying Rajiv Gandhi too had agreed to have Siachen included in the dialogue..

[Karan M]

Keep the discussion going, chai-biscoot, but dont commit to any one side. Until there is clear benefit.

MMS's all-bull prize will not help Pranab no? It will just cement MMS legacy in INC and may even elevate him. So don't support strongly

However by raking up Shri RG, he might win some brownie points with MMS + cut MKN to size + hangers on may approvingly tell Queen Bee about how shri Pranab remembered RGs sombre wishes to solve Siachen..

All politics from these jokers onlee.

Byzantine era politics in a nutshell.

And they were "running" the country. Into an early breakup more or less.

[Vips]

Plainly Saran is lying, The Porkis had on various occasions never agreed to authentication (Bringing on record) the actual ground position held in any Siachen withdrawal deal or agreement.

[Karan M]

BTW, this should also tell everyone how "accidental" the reference to Balochistan was from these worthies. What was the excuse? Typographical error, bureaucratic oversight, bla bla bla.

It was all planned and yet another attempt to kiss WKK butt by the entire born in Pak, we miss it so and we would so like an All-bull peace prize coterie.

Just think for a moment - is it any surprise Su-30s were at 45% serviceability, their primary weapons issue wasn't resolved (in contrast Parrikar raised it in his first meeting in Russia), the ammo state of most of IA formations was parlous.. and then VK Singh was blamed for treason when the letter exposing the state leaked.. and in WLeaks, MKN the savior of the moment above, snorts to a US guy, that Cold Start will never happen or so forth.

Its just bloody cliques.

MMS had his man friday Sanjaya Baru and Saran and others all helping his all-bull peace prize efforts. "History will remember me kindly" sniffed our great man, who presided over saffron terror and torture of a sadhvi, torture of an IA officer for politics.

MKN and others had their own cliques. All trying to posture as the defacto security czars.

We had JJS angling for his post retirement cozy setting yet navigating politics & wondering how his peers would agree to the crackpot sell the nation-down-the-river antics of MMS and cronies

We had all the G-family cronies and long time power centers in the INC including our Pran, Patil etc all seeing the political benefits of playing up peace with TSP but not wanting MMS to get too big for his boots.

National security etc comes last in all this horseshit.

Same as 1962. JLN cuts Timmy at the knees to save himself. Appoints a bunch of buffoons bypassing IA hierarchy. Rest of IA general staff then gapes at Delhi politicking and aligns to whosoever has the master aka JLNs favor. Even as regiments get slaughtered in last stands in quixotic deployment, when Thorat speaks his mind, JLN furiously dismisses him, VK Menon is a giant, he rages. And no thought for the actual war.

Compare & contrast to Doklam and count your blessings that we finally have a functioning GOI and a real PM, not some byzantine intrigue with a puppet PM and multiple power centers and a hidden power behind the scenes which is also pulling its own darn strings.

[kancha]

On Shyam Saran
Twitter

[kancha]

Just put out a short blog on Siachen. Nothing that is not known over here on this forum, but archiving some basic info that needs to be put out on the www. Do have a look

BLOG

Twitter Thread

[deejay]

^^^Tweeted the blog and retweeted the thread. Thanks for the great work.

[Gagan]

If the pakistanis don't want to authenticate the AGPL, it is because they feel that with people like Shayam Saran and CONgress I politicians they have a chance to alter this eastwards
If their vision is under threat, and the AGPL is threatening to move westwards, they will run to dilli, pleading for ratifying the AGPL.
Case in point being, Kiyani asking for peace after the 2012 Gyari avalanche, because there was no way they could have defended their positions at the foothills of the Saltoro range, had the IA and IAF decided to move westwards

This is very similar to them asking for a "No War Pact", because they really fear a war, but they are not interested in a "No Terrorism Pact"

The LOC and AGPL are not borders, time India gets rid of its self imposed restraints

[ShauryaT]

x-post

In my opinion,India's mil strength would've enabled us to counter any attempt by Pak to welsh on the agreement later by embarking upon snitching Siachen. The region is so inhospitable and air strikes would've made icy tombs for any Paki forces attempting another Kargil.It has been a colossal drain on manpower and money on both sides,esp. us. If the DMZ could hold in Korea for so many decades ,a Siachen Demilitirisation would've been possible too. Siachen is not Kargil. A deal could've been signed and sufficient security monitoring established. Opportunity missed,despite our mistrust of anything signed by Pak

I wish more people understand the above instead of just hallucinating with ideological blinkers on. Shyam Saran should have been the NSA instead of SS Menon, India would have been better served. It is painful to see respected bureaucrats being called names. I have disagreed with him (on the nuclear deal for example) but that can be done with respect, no? Very few mandarin speaking babus, who know the actual ground situation on the LOC and the LAC. Agree with his views on Siachen, demilitarization is possible without loss of core interests. The place is a geographical dead end for the military.

[Karan M]

[u]"KW1: Siachen is not Kargil ..[/u]

so everything is easier. monitoring, targeting, easy and pie at that alt. with all our current assets. and of course waging war is an easy decision, it wont escalate either. no troops will be put in (redux) after initial strikes.

[i] I wish more people understand the above instead of just hallucinating with ideological blinkers on.[/i]

I wonder who are hallucinating with idealogical blinkers on. The military who clearly note taking the heights back would have been next to impossible with current assets and would require a huge effort otherwise. Or the keyboard warriors who won't even be proper analysts and see the state of actual monitoring and control, and whether it is even feasible, let alone eviction without a vicious war which will escalate... and then there are bureaucrats who think some signs on a piece of paper and some map-giri will translate to a binding agreement, as resolute as the Simla Agreement and what not. When bureaucrats engage in glib talk on matters as important as siachen, heat is inevitable, with the veracity of their claims judged.

[Manish_P]

Perfectly put - by poster Nam

I have near heard of these morons discussing about areas which are under Paki/Chini control.

The deal making is always about areas under Indian control. Peace park, area swapping, border not understood by chinis etc etc.

[Manish_Sharma]

Republic TV is exposing likes of gurmeet manual, tyagi, MMS and saran who were putting all out efforts to vacate Siachin. How absurd and preposterous was the idea of trusting porki nation was.

JJ Singh is also being as quoted to expose mms and gurmeet gang.

I remember how tooth and nail posters like shaurya and sudeep were in support of vacate Siachin movement brushing aside General V.K. Singh's objections while giving weightage go likes of gurmeet kanwal and tyagi.

[Y I Patel]

We can clearly see a road in google earth/maps leading northwards from Chalunka almost right upto Pt 5770. This affords a rare opportunity to circle back to a historic post on BRF

I was the one who broke the news on BRF that such a road was being considered:

viewtopic.php?t=335&start=80

Regarding the shelling of base camp by Pak arty and the need to move the base camp, we have none other than the official Mily rag Sainik Samachar saying this:

"A Bridge to Siachen"
http://mod.nic.in/samachar/html/ch9.htm

Gaurav Sawant gives details about a new road connecting Chalunka to Siachen base camp and "Souther Glacier". Now this may seem like just another report, until you pour over a map and realise that Chalunka is in Shyok valley and base camp is in Nubra Valley. Then, if you can imagine the terrain, you go

The link I originally mention is now dead, but here's another similar one from that era:
http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/dec/10road.htm

Knowing the efficiency of BRO, that road was probably not ready before the early years of this decade, and may even now be in an indifferent state of repair. However, it does exist, and in any case Google maps now reveals the geography to us in excellent resolution. So we can tell for ourselves, without needing to speculate as we had to back in 2001, as to what the strategic import of this road will be. Also note that the final stretch is over hard, exposed rock which presents a drivable surface even if the road is not a metaled one.

I have, by now, gone up and down that road on GE with Shiv-like intensity. And I am happy.

[Vidur]

x-post

In my opinion,India's mil strength would've enabled us to counter any attempt by Pak to welsh on the agreement later by embarking upon snitching Siachen. The region is so inhospitable and air strikes would've made icy tombs for any Paki forces attempting another Kargil.It has been a colossal drain on manpower and money on both sides,esp. us. If the DMZ could hold in Korea for so many decades ,a Siachen Demilitirisation would've been possible too. Siachen is not Kargil. A deal could've been signed and sufficient security monitoring established. Opportunity missed,despite our mistrust of anything signed by Pak

I wish more people understand the above instead of just hallucinating with ideological blinkers on. Shyam Saran should have been the NSA instead of SS Menon, India would have been better served. It is painful to see respected bureaucrats being called names. I have disagreed with him (on the nuclear deal for example) but that can be done with respect, no? Very few mandarin speaking babus, who know the actual ground situation on the LOC and the LAC. Agree with his views on Siachen, demilitarization is possible without loss of core interests. The place is a geographical dead end for the military.

Demarcation cannot easily be monitored or enforced. Core interests can be managed when the other player is a rational player playing within norms and rules. In Pakistan's case this assumption has been shown to be wrong several times. In a cost benefit analysis the costs of vacating far outweigh any gains.

[eklavya]

Agree with his views on Siachen, demilitarization is possible without loss of core interests. The place is a geographical dead end for the military.

What do you know about defending or capturing territory like Siachen? What have you ever had to defend or capture?

Scenario. India vacates. Pakistan and Chinese "roadbuilding" crew move in (overnight). Your move next.

[Vips]

Knowing the Pakis and their perfidious nature if there are still people who either advocate vacating Siachen or are defending ass-h***s who want India to do so, all i can say is shame on them for at best being ignorant or worse (a majority of them fall in this category) indulging in feeling good about talking peace while wilfully ignoring (what goes of my father's) the country's strategic interests and the blood and sweat of our soldiers. Aack Thoo.

[Gagan]

We can clearly see a road in google earth/maps leading northwards from Chalunka almost right upto Pt 5770. This affords a rare opportunity to circle back to a historic post on BRF

I was the one who broke the news on BRF that such a road was being considered:

viewtopic.php?t=335&start=80

Pt 5770: 35° 0'13.63"N, 76°55'59.67"E

Chulung Pakistani Base Camp: 35° 2'53.10"N, 76°56'15.69"E
This camp is nicely visible from up there from 5770

[chetak]

Agree with his views on Siachen, demilitarization is possible without loss of core interests. The place is a geographical dead end for the military.

What do you know about defending or capturing territory like Siachen? What have you ever had to defend or capture?

Scenario. India vacates. Pakistan and Chinese "roadbuilding" crew move in (overnight). Your move next.

It appears that shyam saran may have been lying through his teeth regarding the IA being on board for the siachen agreement with the pakis.

Why do these MEA baboo(n) types get involved in military affairs and make a mess of things??

per ticker news on republic tv yesterday, ex COAS Gen JJ Singh has flatly disagreed that the IA was agreeable to the siachen agreement with the pakis.

MMS will remain a mere baboo(n), constrained by the baboo(n) mentality, hyped up though he may be. The political and national dimensions of a siachen withdrawal/agreement with the pakis has not been gamed properly and whichever govt that does this on the quiet and by working surreptitiously in the shadows will fall very quickly.

as regards the oft-repeated complaint that the IA is the hurdle in the siachen withdrawal/settlement scenario, the IA has every right to put forth its POV and have it duly considered by the govt.

The foolishness of IG during the simla agreement where she gave away paki POWs and hard won captured paki territory on the advice of the baboo(n)s who were with her during the discussions with bhutto still rankles and in fact, it reeks of treachery by the baboo(n)s as well treachery by an allegedly "hard as nails, tough and strong" PM who got nothing in return for all the compromises she made with a smooth talking, glib and pin stripe wearing prick.

indeed, shyam saran himself, snake oil salesman that he is, also comes across as another pin stripe wearing prick with an agenda.

I simply don't understand that siachen is an exclusive concern of the IA. The IN and the IAF are equally involved because in case tensions flare up in siachen, the consequences result in the deployment of both the IN and the IAF. Paramilitary forces also have their vital part to play in deployments.

[Manish_Sharma]

[
I wish more people understand the above instead of just hallucinating with ideological blinkers on.

I wonder who are hallucinating with idealogical blinkers on. The military who clearly note taking the heights back would have been next to impossible with current assets and would require a huge effort otherwise. Or the keyboard warriors who won't even be proper analysts and see the state of actual monitoring and control, and whether it is even feasible, let alone eviction without a vicious war which will escalate...

According to shaurya T, General V.K. Singh is hallucinating while gurmeet kanwal is more competent.

[Manish_Sharma]

What do you know about defending or capturing territory like Siachen? What have you ever had to defend or capture?

Scenario. India vacates. Pakistan and Chinese "roadbuilding" crew move in (overnight). Your move next.

It appears that shyam saran may have been lying through his teeth regarding the IA being on board for the siachen agreement with the pakis.

Saran is lying indeed, at that very time arnab interviewed General V.K. Singh and General indeed opposed the move. Later bikram singh too opposed. So army was very clear on this.

[Vidur]

It appears that shyam saran may have been lying through his teeth regarding the IA being on board for the siachen agreement with the pakis.

Saran is lying indeed, at that very time arnab interviewed General V.K. Singh and General indeed opposed the move. Later bikram singh too opposed. So army was very clear on this.

The army's view has been very consistent.

[chetak]

Saran is lying indeed, at that very time arnab interviewed General V.K. Singh and General indeed opposed the move. Later bikram singh too opposed. So army was very clear on this.

The army's view has been very consistent.

Undoubtedly!!! and why not??

They are the ones who have to go and get it back, while the shyam saran and kanwal types lie back and swill expensive scotch in some stoopid seminar organised by the moombathi mandal

[putnanja]

On Shyam Saran
Twitter

If all it required for determining strategic value was for one individual to stay one night at a place and decide, then we can give away large parts of land to China and Pakistan as its harsh environment in the mountains and cost of deployment is too high

[kancha]

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If all it required for determining strategic value was for one individual to stay one night at a place and decide, then we can give away large parts of land to China and Pakistan as its harsh environment in the mountains and cost of deployment is too high

Not a blade of grass ..

[Y I Patel]

One huge change from the initial internet discussions that we had on this topic is the democratization of information due to Google Earth. Initially, the only maps available were sanitized ones with very coarse resolution, especially on the terrain of the region. Google imageries themselves were just a huge blob, with no orienting information.

Compare that to now, where many salient features like peaks and passes are labelled right there on Google, high resolution spatial imagery has become available, and there are sites like Wikimapia where one can access even specialized information like the location of Bana and Sonam Posts - see, for example, this very useful site from Rohit Vats: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.17 ... 2&z=10&m=t

This holds true for other areas as well, of course. But to stick to the subject, let me present a very high-level overview of the deployments in and around Saltoro Range.

(1) The best way to think about the deployment of the Siachen Brigade is to view the region as a V. On a map oriented northwards, the left arm rests on an east-west axis along the Shyok Valley from about Hunder to Thang (and here we are simplifying the curve of the valley a bit, of course). The right arm extends NNW along the Siachen Glacier. An alternative is to link up the tips of the two arms and form a triangle, where the third side so formed stretches from SW to NE, roughly along the Saltoro/Ghyari valleys in POK (and this is imperfect because of several important branches on the POK side which we will talk about soon.) Retain that image as we go through the description below.

(2) Let's begin with the Indian Army deployments to the west of Siachen Glacier. The right tip of the V has Indian forces deployed in an angle, from Sia La on the west to Indira Col West to its NE. This angular deployment forms the northernmost foundation of India's line of defenses. The positions here, along Sia La and Indira Col, offer dominating views of the glaciers leading up to them from the Paki and Chinese controlled areas. While Pak has contested them in the past, all attacks have been repelled. The inherent strength of these positions means that they are never in the news, and not much is known in the public domain about how many posts there are in the general area. But understand that out of discussion does not in any way imply lack of strategic importance. Simply put, the positions in this northernmost complex make it impossible for Pak to turn India's flank from the north in this area, and that is not due to lack of intention or access through glaciers. Note that I used the term northernmost complex - I have borrowed the term complex from "Bahadur Complex", and complex in this usage implies a bunch of mutually supporting posts.

(3) As we go a bit to the south of the northernmost complex of posts, we are still in the North Glaciers area, and we encounter the most celebrated complex of them all: the Bana/Sonam/Amar/Bhim Complex. Look up Bilafond La on GE, and orient yourself such that west points upwards. Then the first mountain feature to the left contains most of these posts. If you do a 360, the biggest thing that jumps out is that the entire Siachen glacier lies exposed to the east of this complex. Without it, simply put, there would be no Indian possession in the entire triangle. It is that important for defensive purposes. Also note how easy it is to access from the Paki Base Camp - Ali Barangsa Base Camp - situated at the snouts of Bilafond and Chumik Glaciers. It is a gentle slope along the glaciers, and barely a kilometer or so from Bana Post. Now reflect on what the cost would be to walk away from this post in any misguided and moronic attempt at "building confidence" with Pakistan.

To wrap up on the Northern Glaciers - there are two complexes in these area, both of enormous importance from a defensive point of view. India cannot afford to cede any ground here, because doing so will fatally weaken the entire Indian line of defenses by enabling the enemy (be it Pak or China or both) to turn the flank from the north. It does not, however, have much offensive potential. For example, Bana Post does have good view to the south west which helps in defending it, but the Ali Barangsa Base Camp is actually hidden from direct observation. This gives insight into why a Paki Brigadier (Mushy!) mounted what were considered suicidal Brigade level attacks to recapture Bana Post. The assembly area is hidden from observation, so a large enough force can concentrate without getting observed, and a major attack can be mounted without much forewarning. However, the attack will have to cover significant open ground uphill to Bana, and so an alert defender can mount an effective defense which India did, under the inspiring leadership of then Brig Chandan Nugyal.

(4) Now we move to the Central Glaciers area. The terrain in this area is a complicated mess of high peaks, large glaciated areas, and sharp ridges with near vertical slopes in one direction or the other. The Guyong Glacier is the defining feature in this area, but there are other glaciers feeding eastwards into Siachen that also originate in this region. The folds of the terrain also do not afford easy access to control of either the Paki LCs or the Indian ones - to do so, either party has to cross a lot of extremely forbidding terrain and then fight to control commanding heights that are easily accessible to the defender. There are accounts of fighting to control high ground - for example, Pakis launched Op Ibex where Lt Naveed and another soldier heroically strapped themselves to a helicopter and were dropped to defend some height in that area called Naveed Top. There are also accounts where India shelled Paki logistics nodes to get them to evacuate either that post or some nearby post. The whole message here is that until there is some game-changer development, it is prohibitively difficult to win and retain a dominating advantage in this area. Meanwhile, with the Bahadur complex guarding the southern access and other positions east of Guyong Glacier guarding the eastern access, Indian army is well situated defensively. So, BTW, is Pak Army.

(5) Before we move southwards along the Indian line, let's discuss the Pakistani positions. The biggest difference is how compact the Pakistani deployment can be, due to favorable terrain. We talked about joining up the tips of the V from SW to NE, and how that would be an imperfect simplification. This is because of some very important reasons: the general line does indeed extend from SW to NE, but (a) there is an important gap between Indian tip of V in the west and Paki base in Khapalu, and (b) the Paki line SW to NE is really two major lines - one along Ashkole and one along Sakisa-Goma-Ghyari. One valley leads up from Ashkole to Baltoro Glacier (opposing Indian positions in Sia La and Indira Col) and is self contained. The other one, leading up to the avalanched Ghyari Base Camp, splits up into three branches - one gorge leads up to the snouts of the Chumik, Bilafond and Ali Brangsa glaciers and opposes the Indian Bana Complex, and the second one is actually a rather broad and relatively flat valley that slopes gently up the Guyong Glacier in the Indian Central Glaciers area and opposes the Indian posts in that area plus the Bahadur Complex. The third and final one is up the Chulung gorge and opposes the Indian positions mainly in the Navdeep (note - NOT Naveed!) Complex comprising of Point 5770 and other supporting posts.

The compactness for Paki deployment is because they have to deploy inside the bulge, so to speak, whereas India surrounds the bulge from the remaining sides. The flip side of this is, of course, that they would have to work extremely hard to break out of the bulge if Indian positions continue to be held. And we have not begun to talk of offensive possibilities on the Indian side, which we will come to next!

(to be continued)

[Y I Patel]

(6) Now we come to the most consequential (and least talked about) region - the southern glaciers region. This is a huge chunk of real estate defined by the Saltoro Valley in the west, the Chulung Gorge and Guyong Glacier on the north, the southern end of Saltoro Ridge on the east, and the Shyok Valley up to Thang in the south. The area has several high peaks including Garkun and La Yongma Ri (LYR in particular is a spectacular massif that needs to be seen on GE to be appreciated!) The critical feature of this topography is the ready access afforded to both India and Pakistan by the gorges that penetrate deep into the mountains. There are several gorges from the Indian side leading northwards to this area, and in particular the gorge leading northwards from Chalunka now has a graded road that affords access right up to Navdeep Post on Chulung La (Pt 5770.) This is true from the Pakistani side as well - the Chulung gorge has a motorable road that leads almost up to the glaciated area at lower westward elevations from the same Navdeep Complex. This, of course, leads us to arguably the most important post in the southern glaciers if not in the entire area - Navdeep Post, otherwise known as Point 5770.

Navdeep Post is so named for its conqueror (then) Major Navdeep Singh Cheema, it was wrested from Pakistani Army during Operation Vijay (the Kargil War.) The mountain feature in which the post lies sits on the west of Chulung La, overlooking both the Chalunka and Chulung Gorges mentioned before. Any party controlling that complex can command lines of sight unrivalled by any other post except Bana looking eastwards. Importantly for India, it affords control through visibility deep into the Chulung Gorge, which prevents unobserved assembly of forces or unmonitored movement of patrols into the entire area. Notably, the distance between the two gorges is barely over a kilometer, although some glaciers or mountain ridges do need to be traversed in order to do so. The presence of other gorges nearby, all leading to different Indian locations along the Shyok Valley, can make this an easy point of ingress for infiltrators if left unguarded. All in all, Navdeep Post commands and controls several routes of ingress and is of immense defensive (as well as offensive) importance.

This concludes the geographic description of the are of operations for the Siachen Brigade. Strongly related to the topography is the physical infrastructure supporting the deployments - on the Indian side, there are now good quality roads along both Shyok and Nubra Valleys, an vitally important logistics support air base at Thoise, an amazing forward logistics support base that seemingly floats at the mid-point of the Siachen Glacier, named, very appropriately, Kumar Base. There is one motorable road up the Chalunka gorge as already mentioned, and other navigable tracks up some other gorges that can be used by porters and Animal Transport companies to supply posts on the southern glacier. Pakistan has motorable roads extending deep into several of the important gorges, such that their personnel can deploy on foot almost at the snouts of the glaciers. Helipads can be seen scattered on both sides.

The Siachen Brigade is only one link in a chain of land based defenses stretching over all of India's land boundaries, and therefore it lends its support to and derives protection from neighboring links. The two neighboring links are the Army post and ALG at Daulet Beg Oldie on the east, and the Turtuk to Batalik area straddling the Shyok and Indus valleys to the south and then west. Naturally, both of these would deserve an equally detailed analysis to do full justice, and normally that would be the subject of a separate discussion. However, there are important geopolitical, operational, and historical reasons to include a somewhat detailed mention of the Turtuk to Batalik area in the context of the Siachen Conflict, not the least because that area holds salutary lessons about how Pakistan came frighteningly close to winning the entire Siachen region during the Kargil war. That, then, will be the subject of the next post in this series.

[manjgu]

and the lying Pakis make vid's saying Pak Army fighting in Siachen/playing cricket in Siachen, when in reality they cant even peep into the Siachen glacier !! playing cricket in their base camp in Gyari is playing cricket in Siachen !!