Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Posted: 25 Feb 2019 15:18
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Manufacturing activity in India improved at a 14-month high in February, accelerated by an increase in sales which fuelled growth of output and employment, a private survey showed on Friday. The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.3 in February, up from 53.9 in January. A reading above 50 on this index indicates expansion and below that mark, contraction.
Why misleading? There are 28 days in Feb and 31 days in Jan. So 1.02 lakh crore over 31 days = 0.0329 lakh crores per day. Whereas 97247 crore over 28 days = 0.0347 lakh crores. So there is actually a growth in GST collection. Am I wrong?GST collections in February dropped to Rs 97,247 crore in February from Rs 1.02 lakh crore in the previous month, the Finance Ministry said Friday.
Nope, not at all... in fact, its quite a frequent mistake made by analysts. Easy to skew numbers one way or another!Uttam wrote: Why misleading? There are 28 days in Feb and 31 days in Jan. So 1.02 lakh crore over 31 days = 0.0329 lakh crores per day. Whereas 97247 crore over 28 days = 0.0347 lakh crores. So there is actually a growth in GST collection. Am I wrong?
US President Donald Trump has announced his intention to end preferential trade treatment for India, accusing New Delhi of failing to convince Washington it will provide “equitable and reasonable” access to its markets.
“I am providing notice of my intent to terminate the designation of India as a beneficiary developing country under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program,” Trump said in a letter to Congress on Monday.
I am taking this step because, after intensive engagement between the United States and the Government of India, I have determined that India has not assured the United States that it will provide equitable and reasonable access to the markets of India.
The move to end India's participation in the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program has been in the works since at least April 2018, after Washington launched a review into New Delhi’s eligibility for the program. All this time Trump has been accusing New Delhi of taking advantage of the arrangement, under which it enjoys zero tariffs on $5.6 billion of exports to the United States.
India is a very high tariff nation,” Trump told the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday. “When we send a motorcycle to India, they charge 100 per cent tariff. When India sends a motorcycle to us, we charge nothing.”
I want a reciprocal tax, at least I want to charge a tax.
Bilateral trade in goods and services between India and the US has tripled over the last decade and reached $126 billion in 2017. Despite good relations with the South Asian country, Trump has repeatedly made clear he sees the $27 billion trade deficit as “unfair.”
The US-Indian tensions escalated in June last year, when Washington slapped the country with 25 percent tariffs on steel and 10 percent levies on aluminum. In response, New Delhi accused Washington of unfair trade practices and threatened to retaliate by slapping tariffs on $1.4 billion of US goods. Further deterioration of the cozy trade relationship with Washington could prove problematic for India, for which the US serves as its second largest export market with 16 percent.
Economic conditions in India’s dominant service sector remained positive in February, with a quicker expansion in new work supporting a faster increase in output and solid job creation.Business sentiment also improved, while rates of both input cost and output charge inflation cooled. One area of weakness was international trade, with exports down from January.Rising from 52.2 in January to 52.5 in February, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index pointed to a moderate though quicker upturn in output. Greater bookings, the securing of new clients and supportive public policies were often commented on by companies that reported higher output.With growth of manufacturing production also gathering momentum in February, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index rose from 53.6 in January to 53.8 to signal a solid and accelerated increase in private sector activity in the country.New business received by services companies rose to a greater extent in February amid strengthening underlying demand. Some firms also suggested that marketing efforts bore fruit. At the same time, growth of factory orders climbed to a 28-month peak.The upturn in services new work was domestically driven, as highlighted by a renewed contraction in external sales. Conversely, goods producers were able to secure orders from international markets. The increase was solid and picked up pace from January.
Business sentiment among service providers strengthened in February on the back of expectations of further improvements in domestic demand, advertising efforts and the offering of new services. The level of confidence towards the 12- month outlook for activity was nonetheless below its long-run average.
MUMBAI: Job creation by the micro, small and medium enterprise (MSMEs) sector saw a growth of 13.9 per cent in the past four years claims an industry survey.
The findings are contrary to the official and other industry data which show that there was massive job losses since the note ban and GST implementation in this very sector.
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Video hereFugitive billionaire diamantaire Nirav Modi, one of the prime accused in the Punjab National Bank scam, has been tracked down to the United Kingdom.
The 48-year-old most wanted man now lives in an £8 million apartment in London’s West End and is now involved in a new diamond business, UK-based newspaper The Telegraph has reported.
The UK daily has also released a video of Nirav Modi walking freely on the streets of London.
With a handle-bar moustache, longer hair and a jacket, Nirav Modi is not easily recognisable.
As he is confronted by the newspaper over allegations levelled against him, Nirav Modi says "no comments" as he continues to smile.
The intel agencies had earlier provided input the Nirav Nodi had changed his appearance to disguise people.
The MOST WANTED MAN
An extradition request against Nirav Modi is pending since September last year before the UK authorities.
The investigative agencies told India Today that they are not happy with the UK authorities over the developments in connection with Nirav Modi’s extradition. After a Red Corner Notice was issued against Modi, we sent an extradition request to UK authorities with his address. The authorities were expected to provisionally arrest Modi so that judicial process can start but till date no action has been taken, said a senior officer.
The senior officials of Enforcement Directorate have sent multiple reminders to the UK authorities to arrest Nirav Modi, but no action has been taken.
INGAPORE -- India, Asia's third largest economy, is bucking the regional trend in manufacturing activity, after February's performance expanded at the fastest pace in 14 months, the latest Nikkei Purchasing Managers' Index survey revealed.The monthly Nikkei PMI survey asks companies in major Asian countries and regions except China about changes in output, orders and other business conditions compared with a month earlier. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction, while over 50 points to expansion. Of the 15 sets of PMI data, nine showed a drop in February from the previous month and six rose. Looking specifically at the manufacturing sector PMIs, most of the results were down.A notable exception was India. Its manufacturing PMI rose to 54.3 from January's 53.9, its highest level since December 2017. The growth of new orders was fastest since October 2016.India's major manufacturing operations are in chemicals, machinery, metals and textiles. The country has been strengthening the manufacturing sector under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" initiative. With a population of 1.3 billion and an economic growth rate at around 7% -- faster than China and most Asian nations -- the country has enjoyed strong domestic demand over recent months. In February, 21% of the companies surveyed signaled a growth in new orders. Local auto maker Mahindra & Mahindra, for example, sold 52,915 cars in the domestic market during the month, up 9% from a year ago."A number of panelists indicated the acceptance of bulk orders from clients in key export destinations," the survey also noted.
India's biggest export destinations are the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates, accounting for 16% and 10% of the total exports in 2017, respectively, according to the World Bank. China was its fourth biggest customer at 4%
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Foreign inflows into Indian stock markets have surged after the odds of Prime Minister Narendra Modi coming back to power for a second term increased on the back of a wave of patriotism following India's military strike on Pakistan in retaliation for a suicide attack in the disputed Kashmir region.
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If they've been lapping up China's BS data for this long, they need to keep their lying mouths shutMort Walker wrote:What’s with all this noise about 100 economists across the world complaining about quality of India’s economic data? It’s seems they’re trying to disrupt or influence election outcomes to prove the Modi govt. is wrong.
Those 108 (or is it 109) economists are jobless and are looking for jobs and are blaming GOI for it. None of them I think understand economics. And all of them are politically motivated. But since they are jobless and looking for jobs, they think they can get some attention (and money) by spouting politically motivated nonsense.Mort Walker wrote:What’s with all this noise about 100 economists across the world complaining about quality of India’s economic data? It’s seems they’re trying to disrupt or influence election outcomes to prove the Modi govt. is wrong.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said Friday the government's priority for the future would be infrastructure development and clearing backlog of defence procurement, among others.
Development of rural India and improvement of healthcare and education would be the other priority areas, he said at the Hindu Business Line award function here.
"In future may be four priorities-- rural India, backlog of defence procurement, healthcare and education and of course infrastructure," he said.
"I foresee a better quality of life in urban slums, rural India and the policies must be aimed at allowing these people to aspire and get into at least neo middle class. Two areas where we seriously need to concentrate is healthcare and education," he said.
India’s antitrust watchdog raided units of global commodities trader Glencore and two other firms in Mumbai on Saturday in an inquiry into alleged collusion on the price of pulses, four sources with knowledge of the raids told Reuters.
More than 25 antitrust officials carried out the raids at the offices of local units of Glencore and Africa’s Export Trading Group, and India’s Edelweiss group which previously had a commodities business, two government sources told Reuters.
The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has been investigating allegations that the companies formed a cartel to discuss the pricing of pulses while importing and selling them in the Indian market at higher prices in 2015 and 2016, when India faced an acute shortage, the sources said.
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The raids on five company offices in India’s financial capital began on Friday and were concluded on Saturday.
Antitrust officials collected evidence, including documents and e-mails, and questioned company officials during the raids, a second government source said.
Another source, an industry executive, told Reuters that CCI’s search involved going through company records at Glencore’s office in Mumbai, confirming it was part of the watchdog’s probe into accusations of fixing import prices.
The drought during 2015 wilted crops and exacerbated shortages of food such as protein-rich pulses and India, which consumes about 22 million tonnes of pulses annually, faced a shortfall of 7-8 million tonnes in 2015-16.
The CCI’s raids on commodities traders mark only its fourth such search operation in its near 10-year history. They can only be conducted with approval from a judge.
The chart is not IIP. This is IIP: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/indu ... production.Suraj wrote:PMI and CSO growth data are not the same thing anyway . The first is a sequential up/down indicator constructed from a multiple point survey sent out. The second is a YoY percentage growth figure generated from actual output data . The chart only lists the PMI scale . There’s also a greater lag in reporting the second compared to the first .
One more thing is that it’s not clear there’s a good overlap in the two entities measured . Specifically , manufacturing just happens to be the largest component of the CSOs IIP data, with a just under 60% percent contribution . The rest comes from core sector items - steel, electricity, coal, fuel refining, cement etc .
CSO does not independently report manufacturing growth. Manufacturing is a component of IIP. For example, 2011-12 series data are here:A_Gupta wrote:The chart is not IIP. This is IIP: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/indu ... production.Suraj wrote:PMI and CSO growth data are not the same thing anyway . The first is a sequential up/down indicator constructed from a multiple point survey sent out. The second is a YoY percentage growth figure generated from actual output data . The chart only lists the PMI scale . There’s also a greater lag in reporting the second compared to the first .
One more thing is that it’s not clear there’s a good overlap in the two entities measured . Specifically , manufacturing just happens to be the largest component of the CSOs IIP data, with a just under 60% percent contribution . The rest comes from core sector items - steel, electricity, coal, fuel refining, cement etc .
This is manufacturing production: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/manu ... production.
AFAIK, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI is trying to be a leading indicator of the latter, not the former.
The point is that either the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI is moving away from being a good indicator of manufacturing expansion; or else suddenly a whole lot of manufacturing growth is going to show up in the statistics. But there is something of a discrepancy.
Code: Select all
Mth CY FY IIP 3-mo 6-mo Notes
Jan 2019 2018-19 1.7 1.5
Dec 2018 2018-19 2.4 3.7
Nov 2018 2018-19 0.5 4.4
Oct 2018 2018-19 8.1 5.6
Sep 2018 2018-19 4.5 5.1
Aug 2018 2018-19 4.3 5.4
Jul 2018 2018-19 6.6 5.3
Jun 2018 2018-19 5.2 4.7
May 2018 2018-19 4.0 4.4
Apr 2018 2018-19 4.9 5.5
Mar 2018 2017-18 4.4 6.3 6.2 End of fiscal year
Feb 2018 2017-18 7.1 7.2 6.1
Jan 2018 2017-18 7.5 7.8 5.7
Dec 2017 2017-18 7.1 6.0 4.6
Nov 2017 2017-18 8.8 4.9 3.4
Oct 2017 2017-18 2.2 3.5 2.2
Sep 2017 2017-18 3.8 3.2 2.4
Aug 2017 2017-18 4.5 1.9 2.2
Jul 2017 2017-18 1.2 0.9 1.2 GST Effective
Jun 2017 2017-18 -0.1 1.6 1.5
May 2017 2017-18 1.7 2.5 1.4
Apr 2017 2017-18 3.1 1.5 2.1
Mar 2017 2016-17 2.7 1.4 1.3
Feb 2017 2016-17 -1.2 0.4 0.9
Jan 2017 2016-17 2.7 2.7 1.0
Dec 2016 2016-17 -0.4 1.1 0.2
Nov 2016 2016-17 5.7 1.5 0.6 Demonetization
Oct 2016 2016-17 -1.9 -0.6 -0.2
Sep 2016 2016-17 0.7 -0.8 0.0
Aug 2016 2016-17 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1
Jul 2016 2016-17 -2.4 0.3 0.4
Jun 2016 2016-17 2.1 0.8 0.5
May 2016 2016-17 1.2 0.2 -0.1
Apr 2016 2016-17 -0.8 0.4 -0.8
Mar 2016 2015-16 0.05 0.2 1.0
Feb 2016 2015-16 2.0 -0.3 1.6
Jan 2016 2015-16 -1.5 -2.0 2.3
Dec 2015 2015-16 -1.3 1.8 3.3
Nov 2015 2015-16 -3.2 3.5 4.2
Oct 2015 2015-16 9.8 6.7 5.2
Sep 2015 2015-16 3.8 4.8 4.2
Aug 2015 2015-16 6.4 5.0 3.9
Jul 2015 2015-16 4.2 3.8 3.6
Jun 2015 2015-16 4.4 3.5 3.4
May 2015 2015-16 2.7 2.7 2.9
Apr 2015 2015-16 3.4 3.5 1.8
Mar 2015 2014-15 2.1 3.2 0.6
Feb 2015 2014-15 5.0 3.1 0.6
Jan 2015 2014-15 2.6 0.2 -0.1
Dec 2014 2014-15 1.7 -2.1 -0.5
Nov 2014 2014-15 -3.8 -1.8 -0.2
Oct 2014 2014-15 -4.2 -0.4 1.2
Sep 2014 2014-15 2.5 1.1
Aug 2014 2014-15 0.4 1.4
Jul 2014 2014-15 0.5 2.9
Jun 2014 2014-15 3.4
May 2014 2014-15 4.7 GE 2014