Geopolitical thread

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Dec 2011 14:37

(X-posted in the genocide thread.)

The Turks have reacted predictably.Their lack of memory about the genocide of Armenians,briefly seen in that classic film "Mayrig" strring Omar Sharif,is now coming back to haunt them as their imperial dreams and sabre-rattling against Syria is dusting off the hisrtory and legacy of the Ottoman Empire warts and all.
The egalitarian FRench,hacve done yeoman service to the world community by reminding the Turks about it in typically Gallic fashion,equating it with the horrors of the Holocaust,denial of which is a rime in France! Not becoz I have inn my veins a few wee drops of Armenian blood as well,but the French do deserve our global praise and acclamation for their stand on the issue,especially at a time of Turkish imperiousness.Vive la France!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/de ... r-genocide

Turkey freezes all political relations with France over genocide rowRecep Tayyip Erdogan recalls ambassador after Paris's decision to prosecute people who deny killing of Armenians was genocide

Quote:
Turkey freezes all political relations with France over genocide rowRecep Tayyip Erdogan recalls ambassador after Paris's decision to prosecute people who deny killing of Armenians was genocide
Angelique Chrisafis in Paris and Nick Hopkins
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 22 December 2011

Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said the French decision, to prosecute people denying the killing of Armenians was genocide, amounted to Islamophobia. Photograph: Burhan Ozbilici/AP
Turkey has frozen relations with France, recalling its ambassador and suspending all economic, political and military meetings in response to French MPs' approval of a law that would make it a crime to deny that the mass killing of Armenians in 1915 by Ottoman Turks was genocide.

The furious Turkish reaction to Paris's parliamentary vote marked an unprecedented low between the Nato partners.

The Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, cancelled permission for French military planes to land and warships to dock in Turkey, annulled all joint military exercises, recalled the Turkish ambassador to France for consultations and said he would decide case by case whether to let the French military use Turkish airspace.

He said this was just the start and "gradually" but "decisively" other retaliation measures would be taken against France. He warned of heavy diplomatic "wounds" that would be "difficult to heal".

A majority of the 50 MPs present in France's lower chamber approved the bill which would make denying any genocide – but implicitly the Armenian genocide – a criminal offence punishable by a one-year prison sentence and a fine of €45,000 (£37,500). The bill was put forward by an MP from Sarkozy's rightwing UMP party, but the issue was supported by socialists.

"This is politics based on racism, discrimination and xenophobia. This is using Turkophobia and Islamophobia to gain votes, it raises concerns regarding these issues not only in France but all over Europe," Erdogan said, accusing the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, of deliberately courting the large Armenian-French vote ahead of next year's election.

The French foreign minister Alain Juppé said he didn't want "our Turkish friends" to "overreact". Earlier, trying to smooth the row with Turkey, he dismissed the bill as "useless and counterproductive". He said Turkey, "a proud nation", should work on its issues of history and memory, but threatening French criminal sanctions was not the right way to make them do it.

Under Sarkozy, who opposes Turkish entry to the European Union, relations between Paris and Ankara have been difficult. But the Nato allies had been working together on key issues such as the Syria uprising. Erdogan said Turkey was now "suspending all kinds of political consultations with France".

A Turkish official indicated the freeze would not affect the country's membership of Nato, and that the withdrawal of military co-operation would be at a bilateral level.

Armenia, backed by many historians and parliaments, says about 1.5 million Christian Armenians were killed in what is now eastern Turkey during the first world war in a deliberate policy of genocide ordered by the Ottoman government. Ankara denies the killings constitute genocide and says many Muslim Turks and Kurds were also put to death as Russian troops invaded eastern Anatolia, often aided by Armenian militias.

The French bill criminalising genocide denial must now be put to the French senate for debate next year.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Dec 2011 20:51

Now we got to get all Genocides that happened in India at the hands of the foreign invaders up front in France, make them a public controversy, get a few people arrested and have fun.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 24 Dec 2011 09:15

Washington has a long tradition of misreading Moscow. As Putin teeters, it’s worth recalling George Kennan, the best Kremlinologist America ever had.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Dec 2011 10:01

Abhishek, That article is BS. The real heart of Russia is how they decided to become Orthodox. The then leader sent envoys to all the power in Europe at that time to chose who best had the potential for power. His envoys returned and told the leader that Byzantium was the powerhouse at that time. Hence the leader chose the Orthodox Church.

A key to understanding Russians is they are Vikings (Rurik et al), Slavs and Tatars(Taras Bulba et al). Its melting pot.

Another insight is it was St Andrew who set out to Christianise the Greeks as opposed to St Peter who went to Rome.

There has been a long struggle between Rome and its descendants (England and USA) and Byzantium and its descendants (Russia etc.)

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 24 Dec 2011 12:56

I wonder, though, whether the French feel the same way about their activities in Africa over the past couple of centuries... It would be nice if they had a look at it and regarded that as genocide too, pass a "bill" to that effect even. Algeria anyone?

Not that the bill matters much. I mean seriously who gives a crap other than the Armenians. Like I said, France is like a tired old tart sprucing herself up 10 times a day in the hope that some of the young ones might find her attractive in dim light. Turkey is over-reacting. They should simply have issued a government statement saying "A bill passed in an increasingly irrelevant country on an issue which has nothing to do with it will get the attention it deserves".

Not that the Turkish did not commit an Armenian genocide. But why stop there? Any comments from any European "Human Rights" quacktivists about the Gypcy genocide and the ongoing systematic discrimination against them...real action I mean. Not these useless bills.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Dec 2011 20:35

with a bunch of S.american countries banning any ship going to Malvinas from touching their shore.....how much will HMGs cost increase to support this outpost of empire? typically it would be cheaper to source fossil fuels, food and farming supplies from the nearest place which is argentina! now even chile, uruguay and brazil are off limits.

as the leading economy in the region its time for Brazil to punch its weight and make life difficult for HMG in the region?

its seems there is one airbase and 4 typhoons posted to defend the ramparts.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Dec 2011 23:26

What if the "city" of finance fails in three months? Depends on what the reality of the debt ratio is : 450% or 1045%!

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 25 Dec 2011 18:18

brihaspati wrote:What if the "city" of finance fails in three months? Depends on what the reality of the debt ratio is : 450% or 1045%!

The cat wouldnt be out the bag until after the 2012 games have concluded. The city might also experience a bout of goodwill growth right after the games, before the ill-effects catch on.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 25 Dec 2011 18:37

Stratfor Hacked, 200GB Of Emails, Credit Cards Stolen, Client List Released, Includes MF Global, Rockefeller Foundation

This Christmas will not be a happy one for George Friedman (who incidentally was the focus of John Mauldin's latest book promotion email blast) and his Stratfor Global Intelligence service, because as of a few hours ago, hacking collective Anonymous disclosed that not only has it hacked the Stratfor website (since confirmed by Friedman himself), but has also obtained the full client list of over 4000 individuals and corporations, including their credit cards (which supposedly have been used to make $1 million in "donations"), as well as over 200 GB of email correspondence. And since the leaked client list is the who is who of intelligence, and capital management, including such names as Goldman Sachs, the Rockefeller Foundation and, yep, MF Global, we are certain that not only Stratfor and its clients will be waiting with bated breath to see just what additional troves of information are unleashed, but virtually everyone else, in this very sensitive time from a geopolitical point of view. And incidentally, we can't help but notice that Anonymous may have finally ventured into the foreign relations arena. We can only assume, for now, that this is not a formal (or informal) statement of allegiance with any specific ideology as otherwise the wargames in the Straits of Hormuz may soon be very inappropriately named (or halfway so).

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 26 Dec 2011 00:08

brihaspati wrote:What if the "city" of finance fails in three months? Depends on what the reality of the debt ratio is : 450% or 1045%!

It should be called "Pakistan of finance". Just like you see a Paki connection with terrorism in any part of the world, you can see a London connection in financial terrorism in any part of the world.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2011 00:48

Gerard, The Girl with dragon tattoo strikes!

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 26 Dec 2011 01:52

On Thursday, Judge George Daniels in Manhattan signed a default judgement finding Iran, the Taliban and al-Qaida liable in the 2001 attacks. The ruling came in a $100 billion lawsuit brought by family members of victims.

The findings also said Iran provides al-Qaida members a safe haven.

NY Judge Rules Iran did 911

This is really crazy and reinforces the dumb Yank stereotype.. Looks the Judge is not yet aware where they got OBL and where Mullah Omar and company are.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2011 04:59

I guess he is geography challenged. He doesn't know where is Abortabad! Should be sent back to "Where in the world is Carmen San Diego?"

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 27 Dec 2011 19:27

On Stratfor

Stratfor was not breached in order to obtain customer credit card numbers, which the hackers in question could not have expected to be as easily obtainable as they were. Rather, the operation was pursued in order to obtain the 2.7 million e-mails that exist on the firm's servers. This wealth of data includes correspondence with untold thousands of contacts who have spoken to Stratfor's employees off the record over more than a decade. Many of those contacts work for major corporations within the intelligence and military contracting sectors, government agencies, and other institutions for which Anonymous and associated parties have developed an interest since February of 2011, when another hack against the intelligence contractor/security firm HBGary revealed, among many other things, a widespread conspiracy by the Justice Department, Bank of America, and other parties to attack and discredit Wikileaks and other activist groups.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 28 Dec 2011 10:47

Stephen P. Cohen, a renowned analyst of India, has argued that, since the country gained independence, its "officials have inculcated the precepts of George Washington's Farewell Address of 1796: that India, like the United States, inhabits its own geographical sphere, in India's case between the Himalayas and the Wide Indian Ocean, and thus [it] is in a position of both dominance and detachment. During the Cold War, this meant non-engagement; now it means that Indians see themselves with their own separate status as a rising power".

http://gulfnews.com/business/opinion/ne ... y-1.957737

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 28 Dec 2011 12:32

Klaus wrote:
brihaspati wrote:What if the "city" of finance fails in three months? Depends on what the reality of the debt ratio is : 450% or 1045%!
The cat wouldnt be out the bag until after the 2012 games have concluded. The city might also experience a bout of goodwill growth right after the games, before the ill-effects catch on.

Not necessarily.

The troubles may happen before the games, leading to its cancellation.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Dec 2011 22:41

Uneven Cohen should read Radha Kumud Mukherjee's "Fundamental Unity of India" written pre 1947, based on a lecture he gave in UK.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 04 Jan 2012 23:02

http://the-diplomat.com/2011/12/31/japa ... -lifeline/

Japan’s Defense Industry Lifeline

By deciding this week to relax its rules prohibiting the export of defense equipment, the new Japanese administration of Yoshihiko Noda has done something that local defense industry and the country’s security experts have for many years been crying out for.

Until now, the numbers just didn’t add up for Japan’s big defense firms, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries. Their only customer, the Japanese government, has stubbornly held defense spending below 1 percent of GDP, with much of that money going towards imported American weaponry; indeed, the defense budget has generally been declining in recent years. And with hi-tech defense equipment becoming ever more expensive to develop, Japan’s defense industry was facing an unenviable life away from the cutting edge of military technology. In another business sector that might not have been so disastrous, but the death of a country’s defense industry brings with it considerable security risks – especially when you live in a neighborhood as uncertain as Japan’s.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura, who announced the policy shift, stressed that the Three Principles on Arms Exports, which govern defense sales, would remain in place. This means that arms export opportunities will still be restricted and subject to government approval on a case-by-case basis; most importantly, companies will still be prevented from selling equipment that might end up being used in anger. However, new “criteria regarding overseas transfers of defense equipment” will enable Japan to jointly develop military equipment with other countries.

It’s grimly ironic that this decision, which is an important tonic for Japan’s increasingly moribund defense industry, came within days of Tokyo’s announcement that it is to procure the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft. The F-35 is exactly the kind of collaborative project that Japanese industry needs to be a part of – an opportunity to draw on technological expertise from the cream of the global defense industry, and to share in the work of developing and building an advanced new aircraft. Unfortunately, the government’s rethink came too late for Japanese industry to participate meaningfully in this important international project: as it is, none of the systems in the F-35 will be Japanese, and Japan’s own F-35s will merely be assembled in Japanese plants.

Having already missed out on the biggest international defense collaboration currently out there – and perhaps the biggest that will ever be – Japanese industry can at least now focus on the positives of this week’s decision. The government will of course be slow, as Japanese governments are, to ease its restrictions on defense exports. However, opportunities to sell kit overseas should now increase. Precedents already exist. In 2006 Japan sold patrol vessels to Indonesia: a benign and sensible sale to a country that needs help in building up its under-strength navy. And just last month, Tokyo gave the green light for ShinMaywa Industries to respond to an Indian government RfI for a search-and-rescue seaplane. Japan should be able to sell this kind of equipment to scores of countries around the world without compromising its pacifist principles, and for the sake of its domestic industry it needs to start doing so aggressively.

No less important is the prospect of engaging in meaningful development programs with other countries. Importing weaponry does nothing for local industry, while developing advanced systems yourself is becoming prohibitively expensive. Japan can now build on its existing security relationships to start developing defense technology with its allies and so get the most out of its defense dollars. An obvious opportunity is coming up imminently in the form of the development of Japan’s indigenous stealth fighter, the Shinshin ATD-X. If Tokyo is genuine about wanting to develop the Shinshin – something that many aviation analysts continue to question – it can now call on the expertise of Boeing, which is frozen out of the F-35 program, or a second-rank F-35 participant like BAE Systems. Better still, it could follow the South Korean-Indonesian model and find a friendly country to share the development costs with.

Pacifism will remain at the heart of Japanese government policy, but there’s now a sense that not even pacifism should be allowed to stand in the way of national security. The Noda government has made the right decision. If Japan wants to be able to defend itself adequately in the years to come, it’s now important that his government and the ones that come after not only stick to it, but also build on it.

when Japan decides to change, it is capable of rapid transformation. the pace at which post-WW2 policies are breaking down in Japan is astonishing. Germany is going through the same process, but Japan will go the extra mile. their uber pacifism is a thing of the past. if they start selling weapons, then they have to care for their own interests. who to sell and who not to sell? this means that they now are responsible directly for their own interests and will do things that way.

some time within the next 5 years, it's very likely that the pacifist constitution will be amended in a huge way, or perhaps even entire chunks taken out and the fundamental emphasis and nature of the constitution changed completely....

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Jan 2012 02:19

B Raman in Pioneer on spread of Al Q after OBL's death

Metastasis of Al Q is cause for worry

The full name of Boko Haram is Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad. It means ‘People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad’. The shortened version of its name as Boko Haram in the Housa dialect means “Western Education Is Sin”. It has been campaigning against Western and Christian education and for the enforcement of shari’ah in a country where Christians and animists are in a majority in the South. It was responsible for more than 450 killings in Nigeria in 2011.

The organisation was formed in the town of Maiduguri, the capital of the Borno State, in 2002 by a cleric called Mohammad Yousef. He was reported killed by the police in 2009. The name of its present leader is not known. It was initially thought of as an Islamic fundamentalist organisation with no links to Al Qaeda or its international affiliates such as its units in Yemen, Somalia and Algeria, or the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba in Pakistan or even the Taliban in the AfPak region. Since Boko Haram stepped up its acts of violence in 2009, there are growing concerns of such linkages.

Ayman al-Zawahiri, the present leader of Al Qaeda, believes that instead of over-focussing on spreading jihad to the US homeland, his group should concentrate on creating a prairie fire of jihadi intifada across countries that have a Muslim majority as well as lands that, according to him, traditionally belonged to Muslims but are now under the control of non-Muslims. He has been saying that African countries such as Algeria should play an important role in this multi-front war for the triumph of Islam.

The spreading and growing pan-African jihadi violence since 2009 has to be seen in the beliefs and conviction of Zawahiri who is now in the driving seat of international jihadi terrorism. The death of Osama bin Laden during the US raid on Abbottabad on May 2, 2011, was a setback to those in Al Qaeda who had, in the past, advocated a US homeland-centric campaign. Since then, Zawahiri and his followers have come to fore and they believe that instead of wasting human and material resources on organising jihadi attacks in the US, Al Qaeda and its affiliates should concentrate on the rest of the Islamic world.

In 2004, Boko Haram spread from Maiduguri to Kanamma in the Yobe State where it reportedly set up a base called “Afghanistan”, giving the first indication of a possible Afghan/Taliban inspiration for its ideology and activities. It spread its targets and started attacking the police too. It then spread to the Bauchi area.

On August 26, 2011, the UN headquarters in Abuja was blown up by a suicide car bomber, leaving at least 21 dead and dozens more injured. On November 5, 2011, a series of coordinated attacks in Borno and Yobe States, mainly around Damaturu, killed at least 67 people, and practically destroyed a new police headquarter. Local Government offices were damaged. A Boko Haram spokesman claimed responsibility for the attacks.

US Africa Command Commander General Carter F Ham stated in September 2011 that three African terrorist groups - Al Shabaab of Somalia, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb across the Sahel region, and Boko Haram — “have very explicitly and publicly voiced an intent to target Westerners, and the US specifically.”

Gen Ham was quoted as stating after the Christmas Day bombings: “I remain greatly concerned about their stated intent to connect with Al Qaeda senior leadership, most likely through Al Qaeda in the lands of the Islamic Maghreb.”

The death of Osama bin Laden might have weakened Al Qaeda’s senior leadership, but it has not weakened the jihadi virus and its trans-national carriers. It is important for Indian counter-terrorism agencies to start closely studying the activities of Boko Haram.

Lots of medical terms likeening Al Q to a cancer whic mens it can be treated with specific drugs and a virus which doesnt have any antidote. Both these are wrong analogies. All these movements are due to Islamism which is an ideology which has to be discredited and defeated like Nazism was and are not diseases which can be treated.

However he is right at AL Q has morphed into an idea and not just an organization which can be de-organized.

His comments about Boko Haram and India look unrelated but there is a big Nigerian expatriate community in India which is mainly into secondary criminal activity like drugs peddeling. If these elements get Boko Haramed then it could be serious threat for Indian police.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Jan 2012 02:44

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/trave ... -2012.html
Where to Go to Understand the World in 2012

you want to understand the world, you need to understand Asia. That, in turn, means setting foot in China and India.Together, those two countries account for one-third of humanity and much of the world’s recent economic growth. They reflect two of our richest civilizations, two broad religious traditions and a vast share of the world’s artistic heritage — and its future. fly to Beijing and Shanghai, Xian and Guangzhou. But don’t just visit the giant metropolises. Go also to the countryside that is China’s soul. Visit a town like Datong, west of Beijing, home to stunning carved Buddhas several stories high. They are 1,500 years old and one of the most amazing sights in China, yet few foreign tourists know of Datong. Not far away is the stunning Hanging Monastery, perched precariously on the side of a cliff. And Datong can be used as a base to see parts of the Great Wall that haven’t been restored. Nobody charges admission: they just sit there, waiting to be explored.

Then visit India, and likewise go beyond Delhi and Mumbai, Kolkata and Bangalore. From Delhi, you can hire a car and visit the poor state of Rajasthan next door. Or explore the religious side of India, perhaps with a flight to Varanasi, on the holy Ganges River, where corpses are cremated on bonfires beside the waters. Or take a train to Amritsar and visit the Sikh Golden Temple. As a backpacking student years ago, I slept a couple of nights free on the floor of a room on Temple grounds; it was as memorable as the Taj Mahal Palace in Mumbai, one of the world’s best hotels. From Amritsar, you can also make a side trip by road to Lahore, Pakistan, a grand and relatively safe city just an hour across the border.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Jan 2012 07:15

The French are stirring. Le Monde has an article on how empires survived for so long and compares them to the nation state. Interesting is that they don't compare their own French dynasties which got swept by the French Revolution. There were only a handful of French dynasties after the fall of Rome till the French Revolution. Yet don't merit their sight!

http://mondediplo.com/2012/01/13empire

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 10 Jan 2012 08:56

Preaching the Gospel in the Hermit Kingdom: Can Christian evangelicals save North Korea?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 10 Jan 2012 20:29

abhishek_sharma wrote:Preaching the Gospel in the Hermit Kingdom: Can Christian evangelicals save North Korea?

the EJ's hunger frenzy is clouding their judgement. spreading EJ'ism in NoKo means they have something in common with SoKo. if the Americans know what's good for them, they should keep the No and So differentiated. a united Korea is really not in America's interests in the long term. a united Korea means all Koreans have a direct boundary with China. and historically Korea has borrowed ideas and regimes from China. there is an illustrious person in Korean history who goes out on an "invading" mission to China, but instead makes friends with the Chinese and returns militarily defeats the ruling regime and establishes a regime that borrowed administration and religion from the Chinese.

this trend, in some form or the other, repeats in Korean history. and China's happy communist days are over. they are stirring. there is a slow revival of indigenous belief systems in the rural segments. eventually, the EJ's will be discarded simply because I don't think the Chinese will want to be enslaved by another Western ideology. EJ penetration into urban areas will not be enough to counter the hunger of the Chinese to "return to the roots". and if Korean history is anything to go by, the happenings and tidings in China inevitably will flow into Korea.

so, in the short term, EJ's might feel like they are having a victory harvesting and colonizing souls, but in the long term they are creating conditions of commonality between NoKo and SoKo, ultimately aiding in unification, which is a stepping stone for future wiping out of EJ'ism as a prescribed ideology....

member_19969 · Post by **member_19969** » 10 Jan 2012 21:00

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/arti ... ot-to-asia

While some Indian commentators feel that India’s participation in such trilateral mechanisms increases it space vis à vis China, the depth of India’s engagement will ultimately depend less on Chinese behavior and more on what an Indo-Pacific strategic architecture can yield in economic terms. India’s engagement with Japan is therefore clear enough: Both countries believe they can gain by facilitating India’s entry into the East Asian supply ecosystem through major Japanese investment in India’s new manufacturing corridors. So, too, is the Australian decision to sell uranium, given that it will increase Indian confidence in Australia’s willingness to act as a premier resource-supplier to power India’s industrialization drive.

Indeed, both developments tie in well with Obama’s pivot, which is ultimately an effort to articulate the geo-economic future that Washington envisages for itself in this century. This vision is encapsulated in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade area that seeks to expand eventually to include both India and China. If the TPP comes to pass, it will be the greatest liberalized economic zone in history, leaving any trans-Atlantic formulation behind. Naturally, the South China Sea will then become the world’s most important navigation channel, and any proprietary claims on it will be unacceptable by other parties. Ultimately, Washington is hoping to create consensus on its vision of a new rules-based system for a seamlessly linked Indo-Pacific region. India’s willingness to be part of that system will be focused on securing business rather than on incrementally balancing China. After all, China is the No. 1 trading partner for Japan, Australia and India, and second after Canada for the U.S.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 12 Jan 2012 08:10

A new kind of NATO

Purush · Post by **Purush** » 13 Jan 2012 14:31

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/1 ... 02070.html

Iranian Nuclear Scientist's Death Prompts Silence In Israel -- And Hint Of Satisfaction

TEL AVIV, Israel -- The death of yet another scientist working on Iran's burgeoning nuclear program Wednesday has started to make such killings look like a trend. But here in Israel, where the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb feels most palpable, it has also invoked another great tradition: the winking, know-nothing denial.

"I understand there has been a problem with suicides among the scientists," one Tel Aviv-based military think-tanker said on the day of the killing, with a broad grin.

"Oh no," a top Knesset political adviser added later, eyes rolling, when asked about the scientist. "We know nothing about that."

It is a typical response in a country notoriously secretive about its military and espionage activities, even when its handiwork and capabilities seem obvious. After all, Israel still has not formally acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons, despite the established fact that it does.

The killing of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a scientist at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, on Wednesday morning while he was on his way to work was the latest in a string of highly suspicious incidents surrounding Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Since the incidents started about two years ago, four scientists have been killed and one gravely wounded, a highly sophisticated computer virus has ravaged the processors at Iran's central nuclear facility, and debilitating explosions have hit high-sensitivity military locations in the country.

In the latest incident at least, the Iranians have expressed little doubt as to who was culpable: Reuters quoted an official there as saying the bomb that killed Roshan was a magnetic device, similar to the ones that were used in previous assassinations, and was "the work of the Zionists" -- meaning, of course, Israel.

In The New York Times on Thursday, experts on Iran openly speculated that the killing has all the markings of an Israeli hit, perhaps even with American complicity.

"I often get asked when Israel might attack Iran," Patrick Clawson, the director of the Iran Security Initiative at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told the paper. "I say, 'Two years ago.'"

Meanwhile, Richard Silverstein, an American blogger who covers the Middle East, cited a "confidential Israeli source" as confirming that the hit was the work of the Mossad, Israel's spy service, together with a militant Iranian opposition group.

The White House and State Department, for their part, have both vehemently denied having anything to do with the killings.

"I want to categorically deny any United States involvement in any kind of act of violence inside Iran," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday during an appearance in Washington with the ruler of Qatar.

But Israelis, even officially, were more circumspect.

Speaking to the Washington Post, an Israeli government official said only, "It is not our policy to comment on this sort of speculation when it periodically arises."

Meanwhile, on his Facebook page, Yoav Mordechai, the spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces posted, "I don't know who took revenge on the Iranian scientist, but I am definitely not shedding a tear."

An IDF spokesman did not respond to The Huffington Post's request for comment.

It's not the first time. When an arms depot outside Tehran exploded last November, killing 17 members of the country's elite Revolutionary Guards, Israel's defense minister Ehud Barak told reporters that he had no idea what had happened, but added, "May there be more like it."

None of the think-tankers or political analysts who pepper the security think tanks of Tel Aviv are likely to have firsthand information of any covert operations, but Israeli involvement in the killing seems to almost be taken for granted here -- as is the great practice of outright denial.

"You could argue it's a clear modus operandi" for the Israeli spy services, Shlomo Brom, a retired IDF general and senior research associate at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told HuffPost Thursday. Then he added, "But of course, I don't know anything."

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 Jan 2012 00:08

ramana wrote:Yes some form of nation/sovereignity for control and civic amenties will be needed but not this form of Westphalian state.

You said this in the TSP dhaaga. An interesting follow-up topic would be about the loyalty/patriotism of the citizens. So if the responsibility becomes more or less administrative in nature, what sort of loyalty can one expect from citizens? With the dual citizenship, individuals in some countries already have their identity and loyalty split. Would people lose connection to the "soil" ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Jan 2012 09:37

The Dead Man and His Long Shadow

by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi and Oskar Svadkovsky
The American Spectator
January 16, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3152/gaddafi-long-shadow

Muammar Gaddafi was certainly more than prophetic during the summit of the Arab League (AL) in 2008 when he inquired about the fate of his Iraqi predecessor for Western military interventions: Saddam Hussein. "The ruler and head of an AL member has been hanged. Why?" he asked. "In the future it's going to be your turn. Even you, the friends of America," he told the Arab leaders present as the audience was rolling on the floor laughing. "Friends of America… No, I say," said Gaddafi, "We are friends of America, but America can approve of our hanging one day."

Two years later, the eccentric dictator was dragged out of a sewage channel and lynched by a mob of rebels after the regime succumbed to an alliance of domestic insurgents and NATO air strikes. In the White House, Obama hailed Gaddafi's demise, saying, "One of the world's longest-serving dictators is no more. The dark shadow of tyranny has been lifted."

Well, Gaddafi might be no more, but his long shadow keeps chasing Obama and other enthusiasts of the intervention in Libya even now. When Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, the rationale behind the award rested in significant part on the president's commitment to nuclear disarmament, with the Nobel committee's citation hailing Obama for a "vision of a world free from nuclear arms."

Furthermore, the citation affirmed the following: "Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for resolving even the most difficult international conflicts."

Or as Professor Juan Cole -- the go-to Middle East "expert" for pundits like Andrew Sullivan and Glenn Greenwald -- put it: "Barack Obama was given the prize because he is a game-changer.… Two years ago we were talking about whether Cheney could convince Americans to go to war on Iran. Now Washington is engaging in direct talks with Tehran that have eased tensions."

However, when the next installment -- the Libyan civil war -- of that reality show otherwise known as the Arab Spring was hitting TV screens, NATO involvement attracted an unwanted and unintended audience: namely, North Korea and Iran.

An unnamed North Korean foreign policy official quoted by North Korea's news agency lambasted air strikes on Libya and drew a direct parallel between his country's nuclear arsenal and the ill-fated WMD program of Libya, which Gaddafi dismantled in 2003 as part of his plans to co-operate with the West. Calling the West's bargain with Gaddafi "an invasion tactic to disarm the country," the North Korean official said that the subsequent bombing of Libya by NATO forces was "teaching the international community a grave lesson," and proclaimed that a powerful military was the only means of ensuring peace in the Korean Peninsula.

More ominously for the administration, the implications of the war in Libya did not escape the attention of Iran's Supreme Leader -- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Supreme Leader compared the West's tempting Gaddafi with diplomatic and economic incentives in 2003 in exchange for giving up his nuclear ambitions to "giving candy to a child." Khamenei said Iran was right to reject restrictions on its nuclear program, making it clear that one can fool a child with sweets, but only once. Having seen what happened to Gaddafi, Iran is not going to trade its nuclear ambitions for any "candy."

The non-proliferation connection of the war in Libya was completely missed by many analysts. The same Juan Cole endorsed the war in Libya as follows (while expressing slight reservations over the fact that Obama continued U.S. participation without authorization from Congress): "The Libya intervention, in and of itself, is therefore legal in international law in a way that the Iraq War was not. I personally believe that the UN attempt to forbid unilateral aggressive war is absolutely central to our survival on earth, and although it has had many failures, it is an ideal worth reaching for." His position on Iran remained unchanged.

In a blog post last October, Juan Cole again called for dialogue between the administration and Iran, "Obama came into office convinced that the negotiating table was the only plausible way to deal with Iran. He should go back to that."

But by now it has become abundantly clear that if a plausible way to deal with Iran exists at all, it is not the negotiating table.

Common sense suggests that a regime will only abandon a WMD program on the understanding that the other party will not subsequently try to take advantage of the degradation of the regime's deterrence capabilities.

By backing the anti-Gaddafi forces in the Libyan civil war to the point of pushing a de facto policy of regime change (and not simply "protecting civilians"), Obama broke the United States' tacit agreement with Gaddafi that had been in place since the Libyan autocrat gave up his WMD ambitions in 2003. The president has indeed become a "game-changer"… by eliminating the negotiating table from the list of options for dealing with Iran.

Gaddafi was not even the first dictator in the Middle East to be toppled after it dismantled its WMD program at the request of the West. That honor belongs to Saddam Hussein. Yet unlike Saddam, Gaddafi was never accused of failing to carry out his part of the bargain. After reaching a de facto agreement to give up his WMD program, Gaddafi joined forces with Western powers as a supposed ally against terrorism and became a regular visitor in Western capitals.

The truth is that the casus belli behind the NATO intervention in Libya was the violent crackdown on a popular uprising against Gaddafi's rule. On the other hand, violent crackdowns on popular uprisings are exactly what Iran has been very busy with in recent years. The regime crushed the Green Revolution in 2009 under heavy criticism from the same Western powers that later intervened in Libya when Gaddafi forces were on the verge of defeating the rebels. At the beginning of 2011 the regime in Tehran faced off an attempt to revive the protests.

Meanwhile, the Saudi prince stated the monarchy's position on Iran's nuclear ambitions in very clear terms at a conference in Riyadh: "If our efforts, and the efforts of the world community, fail to convince Israel to shed its weapons of mass destruction and to prevent Iran from obtaining similar weapons, we must, as a duty to our country and people, look into all options we are given, including obtaining these weapons ourselves."

The Saudi warning, while clearly being insincere as regards Israel's nuclear weapons that have existed for a few decades, leaves no doubt regarding the nasty potential for a nuclear Iran to unleash an Arab-Persian nuclear arms race in a region that is generally not known for stability or predictability.

In 2010, the United Arab Emirates' ambassador in the U.S. was even more frank. Calling Iran the only country in the region to pose a threat to the UAE, Yousef Al-Otaiba said, "We cannot live with a nuclear Iran."

Today the Obama administration is facing a dilemma undreamed of in the philosophy of Professor Cole. The manner in which the ideal of preventing unilateral aggressive wars ended with the lynching of Gaddafi has unnerved the regimes of Iran and North Korea. The chances that either country will voluntarily discontinue WMD programs or surrender existing weapons have turned from very slim to non-existent. Indeed, on what basis should they do so in light of Gaddafi's fate?

Under the present circumstances, the Obama administration may well be considering a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear installations before the regime acquires a nuclear deterrent and sends the whole region on a WMD acquisition spree. Contrary to the arguments of some pundits like Jeffrey Goldberg, a preemptive attack is the only realistic option now, if Obama's vision of a nuclear free world is to have any chance of survival in the Middle East in the near future. The regime in Tehran is not going to back off through a carrot-and-stick approach of negotiations and sanctions after what transpired in Libya.

However, such a unilateral, preemptive attack was certainly not the original intention of the Nobel committee that commended Obama's non-proliferation efforts with the Peace Prize. Nor did Juan Cole have such an outcome in mind when he was lauding the administration's "leading from behind" in Libya.

Truly one should never underestimate the shadow of a dead man: in this case, Gaddafi.
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Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an adjunct fellow at the Middle East Forum. Oskar Svadkovsky is a computer networking professional based in Tel Aviv, and the owner of the Happy Arab News Service blog. He graduated in Indian and Chinese Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 18 Jan 2012 08:33

How to get the world's elites to encourage democracy

Russian State TV bashes new U.S. ambassador

The British & the Slave Trade

He Told the Truth About China’s Tyranny

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 18 Jan 2012 22:44

Is Pan-Islamism the dominant ideology of Iran or is it strategic priorities of the land that guides the actions of the IRI gov....Are we sure that the Arab spring is actually a liberatarian movement or fundamentally Reconquesta first of North Africa and now Levant? Isnt't the growth of Iranian Power actually works according to the Eurocentric model?

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 20 Jan 2012 05:41

Energy Geopolitics To Shift Farther East By 2030 - BP Economist

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Jan 2012 12:41

An interesting read. Covers a lot of bases so posting here.

Announcing a deadline in Afghanistan was catastrophic — as the Taliban say, you may have the watches, but we have the time

Eliot A. Cohen is a professor of strategic studies and the director of the Philip Merrill Centre for Strategic Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University in Washington DC. He is currently advising Mitt Romney, the leading contender for the Republican nomination (though the views expressed are his own). In an interview with Shubhajit Roy in New Delhi, he talks about the possible course of action on Iran, the situation in Syria, the Afghanistan deadline and how the US is dealing with China.

What is your assessment of the situation in Egypt and the West Asian neighbourhood?

Watching elections in Egypt, it looks to be in an early stage. Two-thirds of the vote is going to either the Muslim Brotherhood or the Salafists. That’s a matter of concern. I think what can happen in the long run is that they won’t be able to build effective governments. We are in for a challenge that will go on for a long time.

Do you have similar thoughts on Syria?

I think the regime there will go down...from the American point of view, it is better to give it a push. Any regime that has to kill 40 to 50 people every week to keep itself where it is, is not going to last a long time.

Has the Arab spring changed your views on Iran?

It will be a very good thing if the Syrian regime goes down. Syria is their main ally, the only ally really in the Arab world. It is clear that large masses of Iranian people do not like this regime and would like to get rid of it. It is also clear that this regime is going to be utterly ruthless while repressing them. And they are advising the Syrians on how to do this. So the Syrian regime going down puts pressure on the Iranian regime. These pressures are cumulative... and at some point, regimes crack apart — not just because of pressures from the population, but splits within the regime.

Do you think US military action is an option?

I will be very careful about recommending military action to the Obama administration, because I am not sure whether they will follow through on it.

Would it be the same if there was a Republican administration?

It depends on the circumstances. And for sure, I will not take military action off the table. Nobody thinks that’s a good option but the problem with Iran is that it is very hard to see the good options. The best option will be if the regime goes under. But that doesn’t seem to be happening in the short-term. The other three options will be — Israel attacks them, we attack them, and that regime’s nuclear weapons. Those are all awful possibilities. The question then is, which is the least awful? And when it comes to making policy, people rarely put it that way. But they find an awful possibility and then try to convince themselves they are not so bad.

How difficult is the situation in Pakistan?

It’s pretty bad. One of the main problems in the US-Pakistan relationship is that it has ups and downs. But it’s a downward sloping sine curve. You never recover to the same level you were before, and the next low is lower than the previous low. And the current administration has made some things worse by giving the impression to Pakistan and Afghans that we are out of Afghanistan.

Was it prudent to give a deadline?

You never give a deadline. There is an old line that the Taliban say, “You may have the watches, but we have the time”. In my view, that was catastrophic. The other mistake, we are making, is I am not in favour of negotiations with the Taliban. We have seen this before. You conduct negotiations with the superpower patron and you delegitimise the government in Kabul. Why would you want to do that? I think the Obama administration handled President Karzai terribly. He is not an easy guy, but if you are king of Kabul, you won’t be an easy guy yourself. He is in a very difficult situation. And that relationship started off bad, because the Obama campaign was very critical of Karzai.

How challenging is it for the US to deal with China?

It is a challenge for us, but more of a challenge for China’s neighbours. China doesn’t claim a piece of the US, but a piece of India. The Chinese are worried about American warships in their backyard. I am not worried about Chinese warships in my backyard.

They are holding so many of your dollars?

There’s a saying US that if you owe your bank 10,000 dollars, you have a problem; and if you owe your bank 10 million dollars, the bank has a problem. So, if we have a problem, they have a problem. It is going to be a mixture of cooperation, trade, exchange and also tension, and some great power manoeuvres. And we have to be subtle.

But what you are seeing in the way the US is responding to the situation now is — firstly, there is a lot of pull from the region, from the Vietnamese, from the Japanese, from the Australians, from you. Anybody you talk to in this region wants US presence. I am yet to hear anybody in East Asia, Southeast Asia or South Asia say that we should not be around, we make life difficult... They say, we want you to be around the way we want it.

Last question — is American influence waning?

There is an economic crisis, yes. Wwe have our challenges, yes. I am a pessimist about most things in the short- and mid-term, but in the long-term, I am optimistic about the US. And I would remind everybody that anybody who’s betting against the US goes broke.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Jan 2012 14:30

Russia 'Gave Finger' to Taliban's 2001 Alliance Offer

Russia gave the Taliban "the finger" when the Islamist Afghan regime proposed in 2001 that Russia join in an anti-U.S. alliance, former Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov told BBC in a documentary broadcast on Thursday.

In the first episode of the four-part BBC documentary, “Putin, Russia & the West,” Ivanov, who headed the Defense Ministry in 2001-2007, said that several days after the start of the 2001 NATO’s military operation in Afghanistan, the Taliban proposed that Russia unite in the effort against the United States.

“The Taliban contacted our frontier guards on the Tajik-Afghan border,” Ivanov said. “They said they had been sent by Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar to propose that the Taliban and Russia unite against the United States.”

“It was a proposal that we rejected with a well-known American hand signal: 'F… off,'" Ivanov said.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 24 Jan 2012 08:21

Grading Obama’s Foreign Policy: Eight experts rate the US president’s performance so far.

Where have all the public policy stars gone?

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 27 Jan 2012 07:36

Interview: Zbigniew Brzezinski (video)

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 28 Jan 2012 04:53

Something that people are beginning to call "American Islam":
Arab spring: 'Western-backed exported Islamist revolution’

Basically this theory is that the Anglo-Saxon elites (US, UK) are patronizing certain forms of Islamism in order to create and maintain political influence and dominance in the Mid East for the foreseeable future. This is a case of the conqueror/invader taking up Islam enthusiastically in order to create a new Mid East order. The Turks and Mongols had done it before, and its not a coincidence that Gulenist Turks today are the one's helping plant and encourage the same idea in the West.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 28 Jan 2012 05:13

This is being done for the last 150 years. Indian muslims also contributed to this effort.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 28 Jan 2012 05:56

^ Yes, Blunt project and all that. Remains to be seen howmuch reverse effect happens, i.e. Islamization of American/UK society.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 28 Jan 2012 09:59

Interview: US National Security Advisor

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 30 Jan 2012 01:52

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/ ... own-skins/

Will German Politicians Wreck Europe To Save Their Own Skins?

Without years of stupidity on the part of Germany’s banks and politicians, Europe would not be in this fix today. Their cowardly and irresponsible failure to take their fair share of responsibility for this mess is at the heart of the inability of Europe to overcome its crisis today. Germany must come clean for Europe to thrive.

so Walter Mead finally rises to the occasion of doing his masters' bidding. I was waiting for this to happen. being the long nurtured and nourished agent that he is of the Atlanticists and their stooge organizations like CFR, one expect nothing different from WRM.

it takes a truly astonishing level of twisting and obscuring to come up with the conclusion that Germany is responsible for the European financial disaster. in reality it is the Anglo Saxon banking empires and those closely related to them that triggered this collapse, and here we have Mead lying without shame to shift the blame completely to German banks.

this is blatant and not even a hint of underhanded subtlety.....somebody is really having a fit...