2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[amdavadi]

I am sure.. one Gujju bhai called other.. and said.. Kemcho.. in anger!! .. then NIA stepped in..

Motabhai personally called another motabhai.

[Ambar]

Don't be so sure. If i have to bet on 2 states Congress coming back to power with majority it is Karnataka and Maharashtra . The MVA corruption, thuggery , mismanagement has not hit Congress directly and in Karnataka thanks to constant bickering among various BJP factions, people are fed up and will vote back Congress into power. For Fadnavis to win back the power, BJP will have to win pretty much 3/4th of Shiv Sena seats and atleast 1/3rd of NCP seats while retaining every single one of their current seat in the next elections. It is hard for incumbent opposition MLAs to win because their constituencies get screwed over by the party in power, so BJP has an uphill task winning back MH on its own unless it breaks MLAs from the other 3 parties.

Hmm..

Nothing personal but you either haven't been to either Karnataka or Maharashtra recently or speak in very limited circle with obvious leanings.

Maha - everyone knows and says, MVA especially Shiv Sena understand they are not coming back, ever. Thus gather as much as they can and as soon as they can. Mumbai cops have always acted as local thugs but now it is their main occupation under able guidance of Sena. Don't want to call them Shiv Sena anymore, as they are anti thesis to whatever Mahakaal is.

Palghar Murders > SSR / Other Film Murders > Botched Investigations > Arnab arrest and arraignment for 10 days > Pooja Chavan murder / suicide > Extortion from Mukesh Ambani!! ...

The Maha Administration will do down as perhaps the worst ever in Independent India. I would say even worse than Lalu Admin in Bihar...

Karnataka -- as long as BJP understands the strength of BSY (which thankfully it does now), no one can come close to BJP in Karnataka. BTW, BSY is a very capable person and good to go another 10 years. After the mess previous admin did (as an example) with infra projects in Blore, things are moving at very fast clip... I can go on and on about BJP admin / BSY in Karnataka.

Born , raised and live (half of my time) in KAR Sir, i work with karyakartas closely on the ground so know the pulse of the state. BSY has been around for decades in KAR politics, his appeal isn't wide spread as you think it is. As a matter of fact in coastal Karnataka where BJP opened its first seat in the entire South India some 30 yrs ago, BSY and his close "confidant" Shobha karandlaje are absolutely hated, and the only reason for BJP's win in the twin districts is because of RSS leg work and the absolute admiration towards Modi and Shah. Next election BJP will lose Udupi unless they give ticket to someone local like Jayaprakash Hegde. Go to the malnad belt and the vokkaligas are pro-JDS or pro-INC and have been for generations. Preetham Gowda's win in Hassan dist is an aberration for many in that region and his victory is attributed to the ground work he did even before entering politics, he is not ideologically associated with Sangh nor BJP and in all likelihood will switch to INC or JDS depending on the wave. Same in Tumkur, Mandya, Mysore, Chamrajnagara, Ramanagara and Bangalore Rural, INC is still a force to reckon with. I dont have to say much about Kolar, Bijapur, Bagalkote and Gulbarga and especially Davangere where Shamanur Shivashankarappa is almost God.

That all aside Karnataka BJP has various factions - there is the panchamshali lingayat faction of BJP where the mutta swamis act like mullahs on Friday evening and on any given week thousands slogan against Yeddi and this mob is ironically led by BJP MLA Basangouda Patil , there is the banajiga faction of BJP of which Yeddi is the leader , there's the dakshina kannada faction of BJP where Yeddi is barely tolerated but they vote for BJP anyways because of RSS/Modi else they want Sadananda Gowda or Jayaprakash Hegde or Halady Srinivas Shetty, there's the Bellary moneybags faction funded by mining baron Gali Janardhan Reddy and more recently there are the "aaya ram, gaya ram" faction of MLAs BJP broke off from INC and JDS. Also,Yeddyurappa is now 78 and this will likely be his final time on the CM chair, as the search for his successor begins so does the intensity of infighting.

Believe it or not it is harder to win multiple times in wealthier states than it is in poorer states. Its because irrespective of the party in power, the economic activity in states like KAR, MH, GJ, TN etc continues to tick, so it becomes a battle of perception close to the election than the record in the previous years.

As for MH, all i can say is best of luck wresting the seats required from NCP and INC in paschim maharashtra and vidarbha . There's a solid reason why BJP had never formed government on its own in Maharashtra despite the history of the state . Like i said in my earlier post, BJP not only has to retain much of its current seats but also need to win atleast half the seats from NCP and more than half from Shiv Sena to form the government. The misdeeds of MVA maybe more obvious to the well read urbanites in Mumbai-Thane-Pune belt but for those in vidarbha or western MH the dynamics on the ground are entirely different.

Do not underestimate the resiliency of Congress . They have a 100+ yr history, and still control the bureaucracy, judiciary, law enforcement at many levels, they have the ground infrastructure to support elections from APMC level to general elections level. The only way BJP to establish itself in some of the bastions of Congress is by breaking Congress into factions like it did in MP and is trying to do in RJ but its easier said than done because of the above reasons.

[Sumeet]

Can Shiv Sena be split ? The split unit can be merged with BJP and that should get BJP extra numbers to achieve majority. Just as Sardar Patel was snatched away from INC so should Bal Thackeray. Just like current Nehru-Gandhi (especially ma-beta) family does not deserve Sardar Patel, Bose and Ambedkar baap beta does not deserve to be carry forward Bal Thackeray's legacy.

[Kakkaji]

Can Shiv Sena be split ? The split unit can be merged with BJP and that should get BJP extra numbers to achieve majority.

I don't think that would be good for the BJP in the long-term.

If the MVA splits up, it is better for the BJP to let the President's Rule be imposed on the State. Start clean-up of the administration under President's Rule, call elections within 6 months, and then come to power on its own. The Shiv Sena and NCP need to be completely routed in the elections.

[Ambar]

NCP will weaken after Sharad Pawar passes , same with JDS after Devegowda. Unfortunately some of our most corrupt politicians are blessed with really long lives, Pawar is 80 and Devegowda is pushing 90 and both look good to last another 10 yrs. BJP wont have the numbers in MH even if elections are called next week, the only way is to grab MLAs from other 3 parties and form the government , be it tomorrow or 3 yrs from now. Better still if there's a way to orchestrate throwing out the Thackerays from Shiv Sena that would be great, but that's like saying remove aloos from samosas. To understand the dynamics of MH , look at the 3 general elections between 1996 and 1999 in India, despite all the shenanigans of regional parties and Congress, BJP still did not have the numbers to form the government on its own, it is quite similar today in MH. People have short memories and even shorter attention span. Does one really think a farmer or a small business owner in Sangli or Solapur cares about Ambani or Sushant Singh ? No, they look at what benefits their communities will get from NCP after the next elections.

[Santosh]

Hm has called Mansukh Hiren death a murder and has handed over the case to NIA. Big indication that ncp has decided to play ball with center and throw mumbai police under the bus because they messed up on purpose. Question is why did aghadi members/police turn on each other. Pb is trying to save his skin. More dirt will come out in days to come. Sv was probably happy to walk into nia arms to save himself. It is possible that shaktimaan may be given option to sacrifice a few pawns and pull out of sarkar after state elections. Will he take the option or tempt his fate?

[Santosh]

BJP will not do anything in maha before state elections are over. They will milk it though and gain benefit. After elections, it will get interesting. Either NCP may support from outside or they may try to break a few from ss.

[KL Dubey]

Karnataka -- as long as BJP understands the strength of BSY (which thankfully it does now), no one can come close to BJP in Karnataka. BTW, BSY is a very capable person and good to go another 10 years. After the mess previous admin did (as an example) with infra projects in Blore, things are moving at very fast clip... I can go on and on about BJP admin / BSY in Karnataka.

Yes, from what I know the Congis in KA are in a very poor shape. Complete disarray after all the defections and other infighting. Mostly these days the Siddaramaiah and "Boss DK" factions are fighting. On top of that, JDS is trying to poach the "peaceful" vote from the Congis.

Congis seem to be more stable in CG and to some extent in RJ. I think RJ will flip back to BJP in 2023, not sure of the dynamics in CG.

[KL Dubey]

Can Shiv Sena be split ? The split unit can be merged with BJP and that should get BJP extra numbers to achieve majority.

I don't think that would be good for the BJP in the long-term.

If the MVA splits up, it is better for the BJP to let the President's Rule be imposed on the State. Start clean-up of the administration under President's Rule, call elections within 6 months, and then come to power on its own. The Shiv Sena and NCP need to be completely routed in the elections.

That is indeed the right approach. Prez rule should be called as soon as possible so the state comes under Modi sarkar for 6 months.

[KL Dubey]

BJP will not do anything in maha before state elections are over. They will milk it though and gain benefit. After elections, it will get interesting. Either NCP may support from outside or they may try to break a few from ss.

BJP+SS did not work, SS+NCP+INC is not working (soon to fall), NCP+INC will never get enough seats, BJP+INC obviously not, so BJP+NCP is the only combination left to try (and almost happened last year). Farnavis and the New Delhi leadership have shown they have no problem tying up with the NCP.

BJP+SS will only work again if the dork duo are sidelined and someone competent takes over. Or if the SS cadre and legislators move wholesale to the BJP.

[AkshaySG]

Congis seem to be more stable in CG and to some extent in RJ. I think RJ will flip back to BJP in 2023, not sure of the dynamics in CG.

RJ will flip for sure no matter how stable the govt is , The last 7 governments have been stable and yet they've always been flipped by the public , As a result BJP and Congress have exchanged power' for the past 35 years . With Gehlot and Raje taking over from each other for the last two decades

[Shanmukh]

In all this, people, please don't forget the by-elections in Tirupathi. TDP is disappearing from large areas of Andhra. While I have no doubt that YCP will win the Tirupathi bypoll, it will be interesting to see who comes second. I won't be very surprised if BJP ends up in second place in Tirupathi. If that happens, expect a large scale disintegration of the TDP and mass ingress into the BJP.

My recent trip in Rayalaseema and Gunturu shows that TDP as a party is on its deathbed - in large parts of Rayalaseema, TDP has completely vanished, which explains why BJP came second in some wards in Kurnool corporation. There is a lot of anger against Jagan, but there is no one to tap into that anger. If BJP plays its cards right, I think it may end up with most of the TDP vote.

BTW, the total Christian pop, in Andhra is ~15%, not more than that. So, BJP has ~80% of the vote to play for. And the anger against Jagan gives them a very powerful starting point.

[Yagnasri]

The aim of the BJP is to be at least become the main opposition in AP in 2024. That is why the entire CBN controlled MSM Telugu attacks BJP for almost everything.

[OmkarC]

Dont bet on anything from Andhra for BJP.. BJP is competing with NOTA in Andhra for the foreseeable future... the hatred has been more deeply ingrained in Andhrites than in perhaps Shias or Orthodox christians - so much that Telangana parties are paradoxically catering to Andhra voters to help them defeat BJP.

Ultimately, even if Andhra can hypothetically be saffronized, it will be the last southern Indian state (or even the last Indian state) to do so - if at all it can sustain the EJ onslaught over the next decade and maintain a Hindu majority..

The apathy & greed of locals is one, the all pervasive dumbed-down communist/TDP propaganda that has infiltrated them for the past decade or so is another...

"Ambani/Adani stealing AP wealth", "Modi selling off entire country", "Modi is PM of only Gujarat and north India"... to everyone's favorite - " BJP backstabbed AP over special status". There is just low IQ,loud, shallow, one-sided propaganda about every single act of Modi being somehow against Andhra's interests.

Shallow rhetoric & extreme mercantilism cant be overcome by mere calls for nationalist thinking..

[chetak]

words to live by, or words to die by...........

because of political repercussions and the self inflicted, fatally prescient opinions that will cost them huge in the coming elections.

public hai, ye sab janti hai

[Lilo]

Dont bet on anything from Andhra for BJP.. BJP is competing with NOTA in Andhra for the foreseeable future... the hatred has been more deeply ingrained in Andhrites than in perhaps Shias or Orthodox christians - so much that Telangana parties are paradoxically catering to Andhra voters to help them defeat BJP.

Ultimately, even if Andhra can hypothetically be saffronized, it will be the last southern Indian state (or even the last Indian state) to do so - if at all it can sustain the EJ onslaught over the next decade and maintain a Hindu majority..

The apathy & greed of locals is one, the all pervasive dumbed-down communist/TDP propaganda that has infiltrated them for the past decade or so is another...

"Ambani/Adani stealing AP wealth", "Modi selling off entire country", "Modi is PM of only Gujarat and north India"... to everyone's favorite - " BJP backstabbed AP over special status". There is just low IQ,loud, shallow, one-sided propaganda about every single act of Modi being somehow against Andhra's interests.

Shallow rhetoric & extreme mercantilism cant be overcome by mere calls for nationalist thinking..

Voteshare in just concluded AP municipality elections .

YCP: 52.63
TDP: 30.73
JSP: 4.67
BJP: 2.41
INDEPENDENTS: 5.73
NOTA: 1.07

TDP fell to 30% now from 39% in 2019 elections.
NDA(BJP+JSP) increased its share to 7% from 6% in 2019 elections Per my observation their candidates did hardly any cash burning during election campaigning.

Omkar garu,

Below will be the probable scenario in AP.

2024 AP:

YCP + TDP money bag contestants (fixed matches/walkovers for business interests) with CBN's blessing

Vs

TDP cadre (who cant fathom visionary's intent yet) + Commies

Vs

NDA

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2029 AP :

YCP + remnants of TDP + Commies (grand sikular casteist alliance)

Vs

NDA (Hindutva alliance)

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/rss-ready ... l-campaign

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is bracing up to commemorate 100 years of the outfit in 2025. Newly elected Sarkaryavaha Dattatreya Hosabale on Saturday revealed the RSS's three-dimension (3-D) outreach plan which aims at ensuring that the BJP comes to power in 2024, a year ahead of the RSS completing 100 years in 2025.

Even as Hosabale did not take the name of RSS's political arm BJP or the incumbent Central government throughout his 45-minute press meet, he dropped enough hints about how the RSS plans to fan out across the country and reach out to various sections of society.

[chetak]

the wokes are gathering to save their favourite patron 12mati preparatory to the whitewash that will very soon follow.

and these dalals are all trying hard to save their bosses to ensure next month's commission.


very apt twitter comment

If even a fraction what's happening in maharashtra had happened in UP, they wud be asking Yogi, Modi, Shah, BJP, RSS to resign.. But now they are sharing random comment of a political thug.. The narrative in such situations is "all parties are same"

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/ayushman- ... 9-pandemic


In a major feat towards ensuring affordable healthcare for all in the country, the Government has completed the establishment and operationalisation of 70,000 Ayushman Bharat-Health and Wellness Centres (AB-HWCs), reports Financial Express.

The Government has achieved the target to establish 70,000 such centres ahead of the targeted deadline of 31 March. This gains significance as the centres have benefited about 41.35 crore people with primary healthcare facilities so far, of which about 54 per cent of the beneficiaries are women.

Sharing the development, Union Ministry of Health Dr Harsh Vardhan said that the feat of scaling up primary health care facilities at this pace despite the COVID-19 pandemic was enabled by a high degree of coordination between the Centre and states and union territories, foresight in planning, flexibility in adaptation, standardization of processes, and regular interactions at all levels for monitoring and prompt redressal of issues.

[darshan]

Hindus can't guard their own ghar and dream of wapsi.
The fickle mass only rolls towards the strongest house and not dharmic intelligence.

HP government appoints non-Hindus to administer Maa Jwalamukhi Temple, one of the Shaktipeetha
https://www.opindia.com/2021/03/himacha ... walamukhi/
...
In an order released by Office of the Commissioner (Temple)-cum DC Kangra, two employees from non-Hindu community have been appointed as langar sevadars in the Shaktipeeth temple. The order further specifies that the salaries would be taken care by temple administration. The two individuals appointed are named Jashan Deen and Shakeen Mohhamad.
...

[OmkarC]

Dont bet on anything from Andhra for BJP.. BJP is competing with NOTA in Andhra for the foreseeable future... the hatred has been more deeply ingrained in Andhrites than in perhaps Shias or Orthodox christians - so much that Telangana parties are paradoxically catering to Andhra voters to help them defeat BJP.

Ultimately, even if Andhra can hypothetically be saffronized, it will be the last southern Indian state (or even the last Indian state) to do so - if at all it can sustain the EJ onslaught over the next decade and maintain a Hindu majority..

The apathy & greed of locals is one, the all pervasive dumbed-down communist/TDP propaganda that has infiltrated them for the past decade or so is another...

"Ambani/Adani stealing AP wealth", "Modi selling off entire country", "Modi is PM of only Gujarat and north India"... to everyone's favorite - " BJP backstabbed AP over special status". There is just low IQ,loud, shallow, one-sided propaganda about every single act of Modi being somehow against Andhra's interests.

Shallow rhetoric & extreme mercantilism cant be overcome by mere calls for nationalist thinking..

Voteshare in just concluded AP municipality elections .

YCP: 52.63
TDP: 30.73
JSP: 4.67
BJP: 2.41
INDEPENDENTS: 5.73
NOTA: 1.07

TDP fell to 30% now from 39% in 2019 elections.
NDA(BJP+JSP) increased its share to 7% from 6% in 2019 elections Per my observation their candidates did hardly any cash burning during election campaigning.

Omkar garu,

Below will be the probable scenario in AP.

2024 AP:

YCP + TDP money bag contestants (fixed matches/walkovers for business interests) with CBN's blessing

Vs

TDP cadre (who cant fathom visionary's intent yet) + Commies

Vs

NDA

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2029 AP :

YCP + remnants of TDP + Commies (grand sikular casteist alliance)

Vs

NDA (Hindutva alliance)

Ok. I am not sure that's likely, but wish you are right.

The 2.5 % that BJP got was despite it being in a pre-poll alliance with Janasena.. and now it looks like Janasena is slowly distancing itself away from BJP (may go back to supporting TDP, they've started supporting TRS in Telangana):
https://www.gulte.com/political-news/69 ... -jana-sena

FYI: in 2019 LS polls, it was < 1%, while even NOTA got 1.5%.

[Ambar]

Angry demonstrations, ransacking of party offices and even acute embarrassments over faux pas have marked the BJP’s ticket distribution in many of the 294 Assembly seats in West Bengal where elections are due from next week.

All these have revealed a failure of the state leadership and the central observers deputed to Bengal to gauge the mood among party workers, take them into confidence and the lack of adequate homework on their part.

The biggest embarrassment--and this is perhaps unprecedented in the history of elections in India--came two days ago when two candidates named by the BJP for two seats in Kolkata denied that they were even members of the party!

The two--Shikha Mitra, widow of former state Congress chief Somen Mitra, and Tarun Saha, husband of an outgoing Trinamool legislator--said they were stunned to learn that they had been nominated as BJP candidates (read this).

Shikha Mitra had contested and won the Chowringhee Assembly seat in Kolkata on a Trinamool ticket in 2011. But she resigned from the party in 2014 and returned to the Congress.

The BJP had nominated her from the same seat, but she told the media that she had turned down the BJP’s invitation to join the party. “They must have lost their minds,” she told the media, referring to the BJP leadership.

Tarun Saha is the husband of Mala Saha, the outgoing Trinamool legislator from Kashipur-Belgachia seat. She won from this seat in 2011 and 2016, but this time the Trinamool has nominated another person from this seat.

Saha also said he never joined the BJP and is firmly with the Trinamool.

BJP sources said that some individual leaders had reached out to both Mitra and Saha. Mitra was said to be unhappy with the Congress for not nominating her from Chowringhee while Saha was also angry with the Trinamool for not re-nominating his wife from her seat.

“They (Mitra and Saha) were hesitant to join the BJP, but were requested to reconsider their stand. They reportedly assured our intermediaries that they would. But it was a mistake to not take their approval before announcing their names as our candidates,” a senior state BJP leader told Swarajya.

This embarrassing development has definitely dented the BJP’s image and provided buoyancy to the Trinamool’s charge that the BJP does not have enough candidates for all the seats.

The BJP on Friday withdrew the nomination of Ashok Lahiri, the former chief economic advisor to the Government of India, from Alipurduar in North Bengal and announced the name of a local party leader, Suman Kanjilal, as its candidate for the seat.

Though the BJP cited technical reasons--that Lahiri was yet to get his name transferred to the Alipurduar voters’ list--for withdrawing his nomination, the fact is that the announcement of Lahiri’s had been met by widespread protests.

BJP workers and local leaders, led by the district president Ganga Prasad Sharma, staged angry demonstrations, thus embarrassing the state and central leadership.

There have been demonstrations by angry BJP workers protesting the nomination of ‘outsiders’ (BJP members, but from outside the state or not belonging to those constituencies) and ignoring the claims of local leaders in many other parts of the state.

Earlier this week, a series of demonstrations were staged in front of the state party headquarters and one of the demonstrations turned violent earlier this week, prompting cops to resort to a lathi-charge.

BJP workers and leaders are angry in as many as 40 constituencies (according to reports culled from newspapers and local TV channels) for nominations being given to ‘outsiders’ as well as recent entrants into the saffron party from the Trinamool.

So grave was the outbreak of resentment over nominations that Union Home Minister Amit Shah held an emergency meeting with state BJP leaders and the party’s Bengal minders in Kolkata.

Shah reportedly gave the state leaders a piece of his mind and asked them to meet local functionaries of all constituencies where resentment over nominations exists in order to placate them and convince them to work for the party’s victory.

The meeting that started late Monday evening and was attended by BJP national president J.P. Nadda, went on till 3.30 am. Shah then flew back to Delhi and summoned state leaders to discuss and finalise the nominations for the least few phases of elections in New Delhi.

But despite Shah’s intervention and his directive to state leaders, the problems persist. This is evident from more protests that met the announcement of the list of candidates for the last four phases of polls.

It is apparent that state BJP leaders and the BJP’s minders for Bengal--Kailash Vijayvargiya, Shivprakash and Arvind Menon--have failed to do their homework meticulously.

The resentment over nomination of recent entrants from the Trinamool, as well as some ‘outsiders’, is turning out to be difficult for the party leadership to handle.

“Till just the other day, these new entrants from the Trinamool were our sworn enemies and we suffered a lot because of them. Many of them were responsible for attacks on us and many of our functionaries even lost their lives to such attacks. It is grossly unfair on the part of the party leadership to overlook our sacrifices and hard work and give tickets to Trinamool turncoats,” explained a senior BJP functionary from Hooghly.

The BJP unit in Hooghly is on the boil over nomination given to a former Trinamool minister, Rabindranath Bhattacharya (88) from Singur.

“He (Bhattacharya) harmed us a lot and caused us immense sufferings. We used to abuse him and campaign against him. How is it possible now to campaign in his favour?” asked the BJP leader from Hooghly.

Some of the Trinamool turncoats who have been given BJP tickets are perceived to be corrupt. A senior state BJP leader who is against nomination of Trinamool turncoats told Swarajya that the anger of the cadres is justified.

“Till the other day, they were labelling these very same Trinamool leaders ‘corrupt’. With what face will they ask people to vote for the same persons they had labelled as corrupt?” he wondered.

The nomination of ‘outsiders’ who don’t have any links or bonds with the constituencies they have been nominated from is also causing acute resentment.

The senior state BJP leader took the example of one such ‘outsider’ who has been given the BJP ticket from a constituency in central Bengal.

“There are many eligible candidates in that constituency who are popular amongst workers and the local people and have a lot of credibility. They have toiled for the party and sacrificed a lot. Some had even been jailed on false charges by the police only for being associated with the BJP. It is wrong to ignore them and foist an outsider on them,” he explained.

BJP workers and functionaries in as many as ten districts of the state are up in arms and want the state and central leadership to change candidates in many seats.

They have threatened to work against these ‘unwanted’ candidates, or abstain from campaigning at best, if corrective action is not taken.

The state leadership, however, is reaching out to them in a desperate effort to placate them and get them to bury their anger and work for the party.

While such efforts may ultimately meet with a fair degree of success given the fact that BJP cadres are mostly a disciplined lot, it cannot be denied that a lot of precious time and effort that could have been devoted to campaigning is being lost in sorting out differences and placating angry cadres and functionaries.

That represents a substantial setback for the BJP. And the party has none to blame except its state leaders and the minders deputed by the central leadership for this.

This is the direct result of opening the doors for all and sundry to enter the party. Remember the MH debacle in 2019, BJP lost many seats because it gave tickets to defectors from NCP and INC which resulted in the party getting trounced in vidarbha and paschim Maharashtra.

[Ambar]

Sharad Pawar's unexpected news conference today confirms what many of us have said here that there is no immediate threat to the MVA government. As long as NCP has SS's back they will live on to fight for another day. At most we may see the HM Anil Deshmukh replaced with someone else from NCP or Ajit Pawar may take on the responsibility of the home ministry as well but that's about it.

[chetak]

founders of the ashoka university

[nachiket]

The more i think about it the more i feel the first hour and a half of Nana Patekar's "Ab tak chappan" was almost a documentary like accurate depiction of Mumbai Crime Branch and its working, the last hour ofcourse was pure fantasy.

Nana Patekar's character in that movie was based on Daya Nayak the infamous 90's era "encounter specialist" who had loads of corruption and other charges against him. Nearly every one of the big "encounter specialists" that Mumbai Police had were investigated for shady dealings and criminal links at some point or another. Waze and Parambir Singh are continuing that tradition. The only one AFAIK who "seemed" to be clean was Vijay Salaskar, and he died with Karkare on 26/11.

Growing up in 90's Mumbai, these guys (and the ones who came before them) were our heroes, the men who broke the back of the underworld and solved Mumbai's crime and gang violence problem once and for all. Only later did we realize what was really going on was far murkier.

[OmkarC]

Massive protests against Modiji's visit to Bangladesh by local Muslim outfits.. is it really necessary to endanger his life for a bunch of low life ingrates ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkovXYPQQpM

[chetak]

Massive protests against Modiji's visit to Bangladesh by local Muslim outfits.. is it really necessary to endanger his life for a bunch of low life ingrates ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkovXYPQQpM

If the BJP wins, the teesta river agreement will be signed with the beedis and they will try extract a lot of other things from Modi.

Once the teesta work is done, the true colors of their desert cult will come out for all to see.

the one sided and very foolish IWT signed by neverwho has emboldened many piddly states to take a maximalist position against India and get away with making outrageous demands.

[Ambar]

There were massive protests across BD land last year too when Modi had plans of visiting but then the visit was called off with a timely intervention from the pandemic. I don't understand the purpose of the visit to Bangladesh especially so close to WB and Assam elections where illegal immigration is a huge issue.

[Prem Kumar]

This is the direct result of opening the doors for all and sundry to enter the party. Remember the MH debacle in 2019, BJP lost many seats because it gave tickets to defectors from NCP and INC which resulted in the party getting trounced in vidarbha and paschim Maharashtra.

BJP & many BJP-supporters suffer from a very strange disease. When it comes to people from "one's own tent", they demand purity like Sita-maa. So, a Subramaniam Swamy or an Arun Shourie, who belong to the same ideological tent, will be branded as snakes if they have any differences of opinion. They will be kept away till they get pissed. But when it comes to elections, all sorts of scumbags will be welcomed into the party. People who were openly Hinduphobic a few weeks back, will be given tickets.

[nachiket]

Subramanian Swamy went way beyond mere differences of opinion. He actively worked to engineer the fall of Vajpayee's government. He is lucky to be in the BJP. Any other party would not have forgiven that.

[Sachin]

Nana Patekar's character in that movie was based on Daya Nayak the infamous 90's era "encounter specialist" who had loads of corruption and other charges against him.

Daya Nayak was originally from Coastal Karnataka (Mangalore side) who began his life as a hotel waiter in Mumbai. And when on that job he studied and cleared the PSC examinations to become a Police Sub Inspector. There were cases against him for possessing wealth much above his known sources of income. He also had built a school in his native place in KA, and IIRC Amitabh Bachan inaugurated it. Don't know whether he used the "Satya" movie tactic to get Bachan to agree for the inauguration .

The cream of the encounter squads were the 1982-1983 sub inspector batch of Muaharashtra Police. In fact Pradeep Sharma and Vijay Salaskar were from the same course and were thick friends. Pradeep Sharma in a book of his mentions that Vijay Salaskar too had Shiv Sena leanings. Pradeep Sharma also got involved in the election campaigning of Satya Pal Singh who joined BJP after his career as a police officer (and Com.Pol @ Mumbai). Later in their careers there was also some rift between the two. Pradeep Sharma too was dismissed from the service, using a specific provision in Indian Constitution (and not any Police acts), but was later reinstated at the same rank. Sachin H Vaze also went through the same process. There were very strong rumours that Pradeep Sharma only targetted gangsters of the 'non-peaceful' gangs.

There were also other officials who actually kept away from the lime light. Ravindra Angre, Praful Bhosale and the "man who enforced law using hockey sticks" V.R Dhobale were some of them. Dhobale for sure has retired from service, and may be the others as well.

At most we may see the HM Anil Deshmukh replaced with someone else from NCP or Ajit Pawar may take on the responsibility of the home ministry as well but that's about it.

I don't think Anil Desmukh will need to resign. Because Parambir Singh's statements may not have good evidence to support it. It would be just played up as rants of a police official who was transferred to an insignificant post. My gut feeling is that the standard tactics of A. Shah and BJP will not have much impact on Shiv Sena, NCP and the current MH state government. They are crooks, but smart crooks. As in Malayalam we say - "they know how to rob, and also stick to one's ground".

[Paul]

Until the COVID scare blows over, even the BJP will not want to do a 'Karnataka' style coup-de-tat in Maha.

[SRajesh]

Massive protests against Modiji's visit to Bangladesh by local Muslim outfits.. is it really necessary to endanger his life for a bunch of low life ingrates ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkovXYPQQpM

Hmmm
I was under the impression the Beedi's have gone fully 'desert-cult' including the attire and face coverings
That video doesn't reflect that!!
I wonder whether the hindooo Bengali's being at the forefront of this student demo's like in the 70's
some ladies there have bindis etc

[chetak]

Nana Patekar's character in that movie was based on Daya Nayak the infamous 90's era "encounter specialist" who had loads of corruption and other charges against him.

Daya Nayak was originally from Coastal Karnataka (Mangalore side) who began his life as a hotel waiter in Mumbai. And when on that job he studied and cleared the PSC examinations to become a Police Sub Inspector. There were cases against him for possessing wealth much above his known sources of income. He also had built a school in his native place in KA, and IIRC Amitabh Bachan inaugurated it. Don't know whether he used the "Satya" movie tactic to get Bachan to agree for the inauguration .

The cream of the encounter squads were the 1982-1983 sub inspector batch of Muaharashtra Police. In fact Pradeep Sharma and Vijay Salaskar were from the same course and were thick friends. Pradeep Sharma in a book of his mentions that Vijay Salaskar too had Shiv Sena leanings. Pradeep Sharma also got involved in the election campaigning of Satya Pal Singh who joined BJP after his career as a police officer (and Com.Pol @ Mumbai). Later in their careers there was also some rift between the two. Pradeep Sharma too was dismissed from the service, using a specific provision in Indian Constitution (and not any Police acts), but was later reinstated at the same rank. Sachin H Vaze also went through the same process. There were very strong rumours that Pradeep Sharma only targetted gangsters of the 'non-peaceful' gangs.

There were also other officials who actually kept away from the lime light. Ravindra Angre, Praful Bhosale and the "man who enforced law using hockey sticks" V.R Dhobale were some of them. Dhobale for sure has retired from service, and may be the others as well.

At most we may see the HM Anil Deshmukh replaced with someone else from NCP or Ajit Pawar may take on the responsibility of the home ministry as well but that's about it.

I don't think Anil Desmukh will need to resign. Because Parambir Singh's statements may not have good evidence to support it. It would be just played up as rants of a police official who was transferred to an insignificant post. My gut feeling is that the standard tactics of A. Shah and BJP will not have much impact on Shiv Sena, NCP and the current MH state government. They are crooks, but smart crooks. As in Malayalam we say - "they know how to rob, and also stick to one's ground".

rumors are doing the rounds: the poawer play is that HM will resign only if CM asks for it and then it is conditional that one from CM's party will also have to resign, that one guy who has played a dubious role in the vazegate chanda vasooli mandali.

this is the true state of the maha vasooli aghadi and their CSR initiatives. This is why the MVA was set up in the first place.

one MVA/CSR votary has been consistent in demanding the ATM portfolios of agri +1 at center and home portfolio in the state including those ministries with the best ATM potential in the state in return for support and they are willing to break the MVA because they see greater ATM potential and greener pastures for themselves across the great divide.

In MAH, no one believes in fairy tales anymore because the max number of fairies are not in bullywood but among the politicos

[Manish_P]

From Twitter

[chetak]

the noose is being prepared.

only one neck is being measured for size and sacrifice.

all seem to be in agreement.

[Tanaji]

So the latest coming out is that Vaze would sit in his CIU office and make calls to hoteliers. He has classified the various restaurants and bars into 3 categories: A , B and C. This corresponded to 2 , 1.5 and 1 lakhs a month contribution respectively. In return he would guarantee that there would be no raids by social responsibility division that regulates opening hours, ensuring age verification etc etc.

Make no mistake this was a proper operation that beat anything the underworld came up with.

[nachiket]

Make no mistake this was a proper operation that beat anything the underworld came up with.

This was basically how the Mumbai Police dealt with the underworld. Became the biggest gang themselves after eliminating the competition. Of course they could not have done this without the politicos being in on it and getting their slice of the pie (biggest one no doubt).

[Tanaji]

Nachiketji, I agree... in the 90s there used to be articles hailing Daya Nayak, Pradeep Sharma etc as heroes. There used to be a competition as to who has the higher numbers of informants not to mention kills. As someone said, in the end it went to the level of cops bumping of people belonging to a particular gang at behest of another gang.

Julio Ribeiro has refused to head a committee that would investigate this mess citing his age of 92. If you recall Pawar had asked for Ribeiro as he is “respected”

[RajeevK]

How come someone like Vaze who is extorting money from hotels/restaurants/bars end up extorting Ambani as well? It takes a lot of institutional backing, manpower and ingenuity to implement such an extortion attempt.