Afghanistan News & Discussion

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Sep 2012 21:43

shyamd wrote:They won't give up until they take Kabul. We'll be okay till then. We know it is coming though. Our plan for stabilisation of Afghanistan is a long term solution to paki problem.

The Taliban are going to take Kabul along with the rest of the country. Pakistan isn't going to waste anytime gearing them up to take us on. Our plan for stabilization was piggybacking the Americans. Now that they've decided to withdraw the bulk of their forces, our "stabilization plan" is now flushed down the toilet. Sure they will leave some bases here and there but if they've brokered a deal with the Taliban, do you honestly think they will lift a finger if they decide to come after us? If anything it'll better for the yanks if we become the punching bag for all the Islamists on the subcontinent. Keeps the pressure off of them.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 11 Sep 2012 22:36

^^ Not really... as long as that fight continues it will be okay for us. Have you read the fine print of the strategic agreement?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 11 Sep 2012 22:41

^^^
fight between which forces is advantageous to us?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 11 Sep 2012 22:53

ISAF/Karzai troops v jihadi's/drug cartels/taliban/Haqqani/ISI-D etc

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Sep 2012 23:04

shyamd wrote:^^ Not really... as long as that fight continues it will be okay for us. Have you read the fine print of the strategic agreement?

Yes. Doesn't mean anything as long as the bulk of US forces are withdrawing. It's a face saving exit document. There wont be any miracles.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 11 Sep 2012 23:39

shyamd wrote:ISAF/Karzai troops v jihadi's/drug cartels/taliban/Haqqani/ISI-D etc

you can exclude the drug cartels from that one. the drug networks have been allowed to stick around and perpetuate their trading connection, even by the US forces. nobody is fighting the drug networks/cartels in Afghanistan. in the name of not hurting farmers' feelings, other than a few token operations few years ago, not much has been done.

who's fighting ISI? No one. sure, the US is now suspicious about sharing much with them. but actually fighting them? there is no serious damage done to ISI's capabilities yet, and we should expect it to be that way.

Taliban is already on the return path. they will be restored to the official governing structure in some form or the other. this is pretty much a given, once the West started talking about "good Taliban". that rhetoric continues even now, and has become established practice now.

in short, the actual fighting is much less than what is shown and told to believe for the rest of the world. right now, there is actually a distinct lull in the fighting.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Sep 2012 00:28

And to add insult to injury the ISI is being shown on US Tv networks as some powerful spook agency with databases and what not!

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 12 Sep 2012 00:48

RoyG wrote: Yes. Doesn't mean anything as long as the bulk of US forces are withdrawing. It's a face saving exit document. There wont be any miracles.

meant the Indian one. Read it if you can and then tell us what you think (also based on whats happening now)

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 12 Sep 2012 00:54

Devesh you have the wrong end of the stick. The Taliban itself are vast number of groups. The point is simple - Karzai's troops will fight the Taliban and other groups. Obviously, with each group or tribe there are different issues or whatever.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 12 Sep 2012 01:09

^^^
that is an elaborate Afghan tactic at deceiving foreign observers. Karzai himself is in a delicate position and he is playing it with finesse. he is not as averse to "dealing with" the Taliban as he presents himself to be. Even with Pakistan, he is not that staunchly anti-ISI as is claimed. they are playing a very complex game where the distinction of tribes is being used to put up a show of "dissent" and "good Taliban". the Afghan troops themselves might be compromised (in our sense; but for them it's probably pragmatism) against any true "fighting". there have been enough indications of that.

in worst case, we might actually be aiding in training a force which will ultimately not mind acting as the military arm of the Taliban. that is a disturbing scenario, but not far fetched. very much in the realm of possibility.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 12 Sep 2012 02:57

Karazai's troops will "fight" Taleban? Taleban is part of Karazai's troops too! Who is building sandcastles in the sky based on "Karazai's troops will fight Taleban"? Karazai's forces will disintegrate - and the bulk will become Taleban army members.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 12 Sep 2012 10:53

Unlike afghan govt which may depend on outside aid mostly, taliban raise income locally. So even if "aid" to taliban from outside is forcefully turned off/reduced, it may not hit taliban heavily. Hence it seems apart from islamic idealogy, taliban also has money to buy over afghan tribes.

Taliban income $400 million last year: UN

The Taliban network in Afghanistan raised about $400 million last year from sources that included donations, taxing local economies and extorting money from such targets as drug dealers, cell phone operators and aid projects, the U.N. reported

Revenue extorted from nation-wide enterprises such as narcotics producers and traffickers, construction and trucking companies, mobile telephone operators, mining companies and aid and development projects

Local taxes imposed by the Taliban include a 10 percent tax on harvest and a 2.5 percent tax on wealth, the report said. The group will also tax services such as water or electricity, even though it has no control over the supply, and in some areas it will charge small businesses a 10 percent tax.

Estimates of Taliban income from contracts funded by the United States and other overseas donors range from 10 to 20 percent of the total, usually by the Taliban agreeing protection money with the contractor or demanding a cut.(This ensures taliban is "recognised" and provides "legitimate" source of funding from west.)

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 12 Sep 2012 12:29

RoyG wrote:
shyamd wrote:^^ Not really... as long as that fight continues it will be okay for us. Have you read the fine print of the strategic agreement?
Yes. Doesn't mean anything as long as the bulk of US forces are withdrawing. It's a face saving exit document. There wont be any miracles.

Nyet. The Afghanistan war's end should be more like Japan, with a permanent American detachment and support, rather than like South Vietnam.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 16 Sep 2012 18:43

Taliban targeted Afghanistan base to get to Prince Harry

An anti-Islam video spurred the attack, but the NATO site in Helmand province was chosen because the Taliban wants to kill or capture Prince Harry, a helicopter pilot, a Taliban spokesman says.

The British military said Prince Harry, who turned 28 on Saturday, was in a "secure location" about a mile away, with fellow Apache pilots. But two U.S. Marines died in the ferocious assault, in which insurgents managed to breach the base's perimeter. About 17 Taliban fighters were killed, military officials said.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 26 Sep 2012 23:34

Approaching Kabul

The visit of Zhou Yongkang, (member of the CCP’s politburo standing committee,) to Kabul over the weekend as well as the triangular talks among senior Indian, Afghan and American officials in the United States this week underline the rapidly evolving dynamic in the northwestern subcontinent.

China’s rising profile in Kabul and the prospects for Indo-US cooperation in Afghanistan are rooted in two important structural changes in our neighbourhood. One is the declining American military footprint in Afghanistan and the end to the US’s combat role there by 2014. The other is the growing international disappointment with Pakistan’s negative role in Afghanistan.

The triangular talks signal a sea change in US policy towards India’s role in Afghanistan. The Bush administration, for all its warmth towards India, had sought to discourage an Indian security role in Afghanistan. The Obama administration, which started four years ago with the notion that India is part of the problem in Afghanistan, has increasingly seen Delhi as a potentially significant element of the solution.

As Delhi steps up its trilateral diplomacy on Afghanistan, it can’t afford to go slow on the bilateral track. Despite its declared commitment to strengthen Afghan armed forces, Delhi’s indecisiveness has begun to disappoint Kabul. Beijing’s readiness to provide military equipment to Kabul, Washington’s support to a larger Indian role, Tehran’s interest in providing India access, and Pakistan’s declining credibility should encourage Delhi to adopt a bolder strategic policy in Afghanistan.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 09 Oct 2012 21:15

The big three who can help save Afghanistan

When Western diplomats talk about Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, the language often resembles that surrounding earlier generations of feckless and ill-fated American clients, such as Ngo Dinh Diem of South Vietnam or Chiang Kai-shek of the Chinese Nationalists. Diplomats whisper that Karzai is paranoid and impulsive. Afghanistan’s army will cost around $8 billion annually, but where will this money come from?

Hence

As its forces withdraw, Nato should not be afraid to seek help from Russia, India and Iran

India has a $2 billion aid programme in Afghanistan. Last year, Delhi and Kabul also signed a strategic partnership: Afghan officers are training in India and there are plans for the transfer of military equipment.

ran might seem a bizarre ally. But in 2001, members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps worked with the CIA and American special forces against the Taliban. Remarkably, Iranian officials were even open to working under US command to train Afghans.

As for Russia, it has 6,000 soldiers next door in Tajikistan, and played a key role in allowing Nato forces to fuel and arm themselves after Pakistan shut off supply routes last year. Moscow has no wish to see the resurgence of fundamentalist forces on its southern flank.

Working with these countries should not diminish our commitment to talking to the Taliban about a political settlement. We should also strive to give Afghan provinces more freedom from Kabul’s interference. Meanwhile, it is important than the Afghan army does not collapse. If we don’t co-operate with like-minded countries, they will opt to work with their favourite ethnic and factional militias, which would worsen Afghanistan’s own divisions.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 09 Oct 2012 21:36

Nyet. The Afghanistan war's end should be more like Japan, with a permanent American detachment and support, rather than like South Vietnam.

Was the US facing a proxy war in Japan? The US will confined to a couple major cities and bases. That's about it. Without a substantial troop presence, not much can be done.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 09 Oct 2012 22:01

brihaspati wrote:Karazai's troops will "fight" Taleban? Taleban is part of Karazai's troops too! Who is building sandcastles in the sky based on "Karazai's troops will fight Taleban"? Karazai's forces will disintegrate - and the bulk will become Taleban army members.

Unfortunately, this is alien logic to some on this thread.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Oct 2012 22:20

Gunjur, A big pharma firm in US found that one of its over the counter medication is also being used to induce sleep as its not addictive. So the big pharma packages that component and claims innovative marketing of its genius managers.

Same way the US has figured out those three have high stakes in Karzai regime survival and wants to pretend to support those efforts, when on the contrary they have done their outmost to undermine those efforts in the last decade to appease the terrorists in TSP!

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 09 Oct 2012 23:44

Definitely nato will bat for its interest only. Once they pack up (and stop being targets for taliban), its the nearby players who will have to bear the fallout. Hopefully india and russia put enough pressure on gcc so that taliban (and pakis) can be "contained" within the borders of afghanistan. If at all the "clout" india is supposed to have gained within gcc is true, then this "clout" should be used in afghanistan (though ultra pious gcc siding with kafir russia/india against ghazis of islam is nil). Also as stated in the article, india and russia have to prop up their own factions to oppose taliban over running the country.

Also iran may not be a "reliable" partner for us as it is vying for ummah leadership and would want its client to run the show in afghanistan. Indian and iranian interests may be same at a broader level but not at micro level. They may be even fine with taliban as long as taliban protects iranian interests and loosen their anti-shia measures. It's mainly upto india and russia to ensure islamic radicals do not run the show. But can india raise to the occasion??

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 10 Oct 2012 00:28

^^^

(though ultra pious gcc siding with kafir russia/india against ghazis of islam is nil)

Before this gcc itslef needs to be beaten. The last time arabian peninsula held sway over the greater region was during the 1st caliphate for around 3 decades. Then the power shifted to damascus/levant. Even now arabian peninsula (current day gcc) has held sway for over 3 decades, so currently if gcc gets beaten in syria so badly that they loose their hold over ummah and parallely syria does the "needful" by the way of kurds to the neo-ottomans and then finally west/israel does the "job" with iran so that gcc is not supplanted by iranian mullahs , then in a way levant would have again repeated the history. Thus the ummah without any "leaders" may cease to be a hindrance to global community.

So does levant hold the key?? Can something like this happen?? Maybe Inshallah.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Oct 2012 01:30

Good reading of the early Caliphate shift from Mecca to Damscus and the de-Arabaisation of political Islam.
Same role for Syria that is why it has so many backers. The French tried to "Frenchify" the Syrians during the Syrian Mandate but Arab Nationalism kicked in after decolonization and led to the project going astray.
The FSU stepped in to the void and took over Syria. But then it againdrifted after the collapse of FSU. So now 20 years later again at cross roads.

member_23692 · Post by **member_23692** » 10 Oct 2012 01:34

The "American woman who as raped by the men of Allah" speaks out. By the way, the men of Allah got away with it.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... r-cry.html

Note her diagnosis, her solution and how the Americans are too weak to go for her solution.

In the meantime, India led by MMS is busy, internally indulging in all kinds of debauchery known to man !

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 10 Oct 2012 02:47

America's weakness over situations like Afghanistan is threefold - and it is not unique to America.

(1) A complex consumption pattern in any civilization makes it vulnerable to resource constraints, especially the main source of eneregy that drives the tech of the level of the civilization. For Romans it was slave labour, and for Americans cheap oil. Growth trends ususally exhaust such primary resources, within the initial perimeter of the civilization, and hence further growth is only maintainable by extracting that primary resource from ever expanding outside territory.

Given the tech level, there will soon reach an equilibrium between the external people learning their power [as source of labour for Roman empire and as source of oil for USA] and the civilization's coercive power to extract the resource [for some time the control can be maintained by superior military tech, but with humans that is always a temporary advantage. Defeated quickly learn to copy.]

Over time the advantages of coercion will be lost, and the ex-dominated will roll back the civilization.

(2) A civilization that has been successful for some time in monopolizing resources of a significant portion of the globe, will coerce and destroy centres of opposition and lead to "peace", in which business and mercantile profit extraction becomes concentrated in the elite of the civilization and their non-local allies. Gradually this leads to the psychological alienation of the mercantiles from the original roots of the civilization, and development of trans-civilizational values as supreme. This is the result of a compromise between the need to enhance profits, and the idenity of the civilization. After some time, the civilizational identity becomes less important than the profits of the mercantile class.

Over time this means a loss of determination to protect the civilization. If you are no longer sure of what is most important after monetary profits, you cannot focus your energies on concrete steps to protect what is most important.

(3) Most complex civilizations inevitably evolve philosophically towards egalitarian and fairness principles, as a result of success in satisfying basic needs of humanity. When growth and expansion at the cost of others ceases, the large elite class that had been increasing in size, loses places to accommodate upcoming elite ambitions for power. The disgruntled and marginalized elite use philosophical principles [which could only be built upon a certain level of societal consumption fueled by exploiting externals], that go against the coercive strategies behind succes sof the civilization in the first place - as weapons in internal power struggles.

It was such search for "humane" memes that led to elite Roman sponsorship of early Christianity, and communism in early modern colonialist Europe, and is now leading to "secularist=pro-islamic/diversity" creeds in the west.

The humane values evolved by a civilization almost always is used by acombination of internal ambition and external opportunism to paralyze the coercive powers of the civilization, and ultimately allows the civilization to be destroyed.

Afghan's source of strength is a brutalized slave society ideologically complemented by slavery-justifying theology - sort of the same way the Russians managed to fight back Hitler under Stalin. What has defeated the west against Afghans, especially USA, is the failure to use coercion against the right institutions - in this case the slave ideology maintainers of the mullahcracy. Afghans do understand coercion - it just has to match their expected levels of brutality that they inflict on others. If selective brutality is imposed on the mullahcracy, and targeted elimination of their institutions and Afghans left alone as long as they don't try to help out the mullahs - Afghans will betray the mullahs and Afghans are very very very much bribable - its a false Kiplingian propaganda that Afghan loyalty to the clan/guest/ protected is beyond betrayal at the right price.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Oct 2012 03:29

Gunjur, Slow movement.....
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 3#p1349873

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 15 Oct 2012 21:46

Was searching for various Indian projects in Afghanistan. Found this document
http://www.jnu.ac.in/Academics/Schools/ ... 202010.pdf

Major Donors
1) US - 38Billion$ (Disbursed around 22 B$. And half of this is to building afghan army and police. These amounts are excluding US force expenses)
2) EU - Around 11.5 Billion$
3) Japan -around $1.8 billion. Main projects being Kabul airport, kabul-kandahar highway
4) China - 132 million. The main projects include the Jomhuri Hospital and the Parwan Irrigation Project as well as training for
about 500 afghan officials in diplomacy, trade, finance, agriculture, counter-narcotics, and other fields. It remained disengaged in the country until the afghan administration opened its energy, mineral, and raw material to foreign investors. Then in 2007 got contract for aynak copper mine. Metallurgical Construction Corporation of China (MCC) plans to invest US$2.9 billion in the project; with investment reaching to US$5 billion in the future. MCC has also agreed to build a 400 MW power station.

Now INDIA projects - around 1.3 Billion
- 218-kilometer-Iong Zaranj-Delaram road in southwestern Afghanistan. This road has a strategic significance for India as it is going to facilitate movement of go~odsand services from Afghanistan to Chahbahar Port in iran. This road, together with 60 kilometers of inner-city roads in Zaranj and Gurguri, was completed in January 2009 at a cost ofU5$150 million.
- construction of a 220kV DC transmission line from Pul-e-Khumri tQ Kabul and a 220/110/20 kV substation at Chimtala. Built at the cost of U5$120 million, this line has facilitated an almost 24-hour power supply from the northern grid to Kabul City.
- will also be setting up additional 220/20 kV substations at Charikar and Doshi along with Pule-e-Khumri Kabul transmission line.
- construction and commissioning of the 42 MW Salma Dam power project on the Hari Rud River in Herat province is also going to be
completed by the end of 2010
- Afghan Parliament (US$180 million)
- restored telecommunication infrastructure in 11 provinces and expanded national TV network by providing an uplink from Kabul and downlinks in all 34 provincial capitals.
- supplied vehicles (400 buses and 200 minibuses for mass urban transportation, 105 utility vehicles for municipalities) and 3 airbus aircrafts and spares to Ariana Afghan Airlines.
- supplied equipment for three substations in the Faryab province andfor a 125 KM transmission line from Andhkhoi to Maimana.
- rehabilitated Amir Ghazi and the Quargah Reservoir Dam.
- helped in the restoration/revamping of the Afghan media, including the setting up of Azadi (Freedom) printing press, a 100KW-SW transmitter at Yakatoot (Kabul), as well as a TV satellite uplinking/downlinking facility for 10 TV stations and a downlinking
facility and TV transmitters in 24 provinces.
- Other infrastructure projects include solar electrification of 100 villages, construction of a 5000MT cold storage in Kandahar, establishment of a modern TV studio and a 1000W TV transmitter in Jalalabad, setting up of a mobile TV satellite uplink and five
TV relay centers in Nangarhar, digging 26 tube wells in 6 northwestern provinces, drilling of 24 deep wells in Herat, planning the construction of a Radio Television Afghanistan (RTA) building in Jalalabad and leasing of slots on the Indian satellite INSAT3A for RTA telecast since 2004.
- 675 long-term university scholarships annually and 675 annual slots for short-term technical training courses.
- deputing 30 Indian civil servants as coaches and mentors annually and also provided services of Indian banking experts to Afghan Bank.
- Special training courses have also been provided to more than 150 Afghan diplomats at the Indian Foreign Service Institute, 30 staff of the National Assembly at the Bureau of Parliamentary Studies and Training, about 300 Afghan police, 60 teachers, 60 doctors and paramedics, 60 Ariana Airlines officials, and 40 officials from the Ministry of Mining and Industry.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Oct 2012 08:13

Pegging them in dollars undervalues the Indian contribution for it has changed the way ordinary Afghans see India.

Most Western aid is recycled into buying Western products.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 19 Oct 2012 05:56

The Scariest Little Corner of the World

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 31 Oct 2012 05:13

What's the latest on efforts to build a new-and-improved Northern Alliance? The US is withdrawing and obviously Pakistan isn't abandoning its dream of taking back over Afghanistan. It's obvious the US isn't going to stop them, but do we and our allies have to just idly by and let Pakistan retake the place?

Russia, India, and the various Central Asian republics bordering Afghanistan have the power to create a much more powerful version of the Norther Alliance. We can work together to ensure the new NA is far more heavily armed and organized into a proper army. Except they won't be called the Northern Alliance they'll be called the Afghan National Army. In other words the current ANA for which the US has already laid down the groundwork in terms of organization, training, and basic armanents can be purged of any Pushtun\Paki influences and become the Turkic\Tajik\Uzbek force it was always meant to be. When building up the ANA, the US absurdly required 38 percent of the troops to be Pashtun, 25 percent Tajiks, 19 percent Hazaras and eight percent Uzbek. The Afghans wisely resisted but still ended up with Pashtuns comprising nearly 30% of the ANA. And the Americans keep acting surprised when Afghan troops of Pushtun background turn out to be Talibunnies and turn their guns on US troops.

Anyway, the main thing holding back the ANA from becoming an effective fighting force is the presence of so many Pashtun in the ranks. This promotes fear, uncertainty, mistrust and destroys morale. Once the US is gone, this rediculous pretense of kissing Paki ass & coddling the Pashtun can end. The ANA can purge itself and become a lean mean fighting machine like they used to be under Ahmad Masood, only bigger and much better armed this time. India, Russia, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan can take over where the Americans left off, but we can do it smart: just arm & finance the people that hate Pakistan (ie: everybody in Afghanistan but the Pushtun) and they'll do the work for us. Nobody wants to thwart Paki designs in Afghanistan more than the non-Pushtun peoples who suffered most under Taliban rule. These people also happen to be pretty good fighters; in late 2001 they only needed a few weeks of US airstrikes and some logistical help to start an offensive and completely rout the Taliban. These people can fight and function as an organized military force.

I believe with proper backing from India\Russia\CAR the Afghan National Army can take on and defeat the Taliban anywhere in Afghanistan. I think it would take a full-fledged invasion by the Pakistani Army to defeat them. This is unlikely, but even if the PA were stupid enough to openly invade Afghanistan, so much the better for us. We win either way.

Is there any sign that India and our allies are laying the groundwork for this next phase in the Afghan war? Or does it look like the powers that be have decided to just give up and let the Pakistanis take the place back?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 31 Oct 2012 10:19

If Northern Afghans want the Pushtuns to work with them as Afghans, then they need to destroy Pakistani influence over the Pushtun Taliban and other supported networks.

The only way to do so is to get Pushtuns to kill more Pakistani security forces, then the Pakis succeed in getting Pushtun Taliban to kill in Afghanistan. The more TSPA and ISI get killed by Pushtun, Paki hold over Pushtuns would completely dissipate, and Pushtuns would end up becoming enemies of Pakjabis and TSPA. What does that say about Paki capacity to mobilize Jihadis to fight against India!

And since Pushtuns like intelligent mercenaries fight and kill for money, it is basically a question of who is able to invest more in killing. I think Indians should help the Afghans financially.

We really have a very simple equation here!

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 03 Nov 2012 19:48

Intelligence has been defined in many ways. Some define it as the ability to learn about, learn from, understand and interact, but Michael Herman (2011) understands that intelligence is a classified knowledge that support its own state’s information security by advising on and setting standard of defensive, protective security measures. In his recent book, he describes intelligence in these words: “Intelligence supply assessments of intelligence threat; engages in counter espionage; and seeks evidence of hostile countries’ intelligence successes through counterintelligence penetrations of their organisations.” In the case of Afghan intelligence agencies, we observed that they never adopted these and other measures of intelligence and counterintelligence to lead the government in positive directions.

The stories of the failure of Afghan intelligence agencies and their political and religious affiliations and loyalties have badly affected military strategies and counter insurgency measures of NATO and US intelligence circles; secret political and military reports are feared to have gone into the hands of war criminals, regional states and the Taliban insurgents. As per the nature of their controversial work, Afghan agents belong to various ethnic and political groups; therefore, they are bound to report to their masters. Like the Afghan police and army, intelligence network has also been divided between states, warlords, NGOs and foreign intelligence agencies. On July 13, 2012, Khaama Press reported that intelligence organisations of neighbouring states had acquired Afghan intelligence cards and operated independently.

There are many sections within the intelligence agencies; some report about the NATO, US, UK and ISAF military activities to the Taliban; some report to ‘war criminals’; some report to Karim Khalili; some report to the vice president and leader of the Northern Alliance and some report to Iran and Pakistan. An addition to the political and ethnic influence of the Taliban and the former Mujahedeen war criminals in KHAD, the influence of foreign intelligence networks is further making the task of the agency controversial. Recently, a source within the agency told me that the leakage of many important political and military reports has put in danger the lives of many Afghan and NATO soldiers. From a membership card to important intelligence reports, everything is for sale cheaply.

All players in the battlefield use Afghan intelligence for their own purposes while the recruitment of its members on ethnic basis is more worrisome. Experts say that this is the main cause of the failure of the Afghan, US and NATO forces in undermining insurgency and terrorism in Afghanistan. Mujahedeen, Taliban, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, India, China and Russia play their own roles. Afghan intelligence is playing a double game, providing false information to international community about the military plans of insurgents. The former Pakistani president Musharraf once alleged that Afghan intelligence was being used by the RAW against Pakistan. “Afghan intelligence, the Afghan president and the Afghan government don’t talk of them. I know what they do. They, by design, mislead the world...The Afghan intelligence is entirely under the influence of Indian intelligence. We know that.” Mr Musharraf said.

After the US intervention in 2001, General Hamid Gul says that the Afghan government along with CIA, RAW and FBS formed a new intelligence agency (RAMA) to use it against the regional states. Russia, the US and India provide training to its members. The agency is divided among three states and works on three different directives. According to the Glob and Mail report: “A member of Afghan intelligence service boasted to Canadian military officers in the spring of last year that his organisation was able to ‘torture’ or ‘beat’ prisoners during the course of its investigations.” On December 17 last year, President Karzai authorised the intelligence agencies to torture prisoners in prisons but his new decree further imperilled the rights of prisoners.

Like his predecessors, the present Afghan intelligence chief is a known ‘war criminal’ who tortured innocent civilians in the Kandahar province. In a recent CNN report, President Karzai has been criticised for his appointment: “The man tapped as Afghanistan’s next intelligence chief faces allegations of drug trafficking and torture.” In September 2012, the Human Rights Watch allegedly reported the appointment of the alleged war criminal Assadullah Khalid as worrisome as KHAD already has a long and well-documented history of torture of detainees.

The way intelligence works is a joke. Appointments on political and ethnic bases are an irksome story. No professional measures of intelligence are adopted; every sectarian and ethnic member of the agency is bound to report his leader, not to help the state in fighting Taliban insurgency. In his well-written book, Michael Herman understands, “We have already seen how national intelligence can be used for mediation and conflict resolution, including such means as its provision to potential antagonists as a stabilising measure; its use in international cooperation on counter terrorism and limiting international arms transfer; and the verification of arms control and other international agreements. Afghan intelligence with its non-professional strategies and security measures, never served the interests of the Afghan state, it served the interest of other states”. KHAD is known for the torture and killing of innocent Afghans in the 1980s and 1990s while murders and illegal means of interrogation are still part of the intelligence infrastructure.

In October 2012, a radicalised member of the Afghan intelligence blew himself up using a suicide vest, killing two US soldiers and four Afghan intelligence men. This is a new and secret tactic of war against the US and NATO forces. The prominent Afghan intellectual and historian, Muhammad Hassan Kakar, in his research book (1982-2004) complains, “The Afghan society may now be regarded a murderous society. The sad thing about it is that there is no investigation for murder cases. Human life has become the life of sparrow, and the principle that might is right dominates. In the past, murder cases were investigated not only among the people where the murder had taken place but also among neighbours, who were summoned to the security centres for questioning. In this way social conscience against murder was awakened.”

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 03 Nov 2012 21:49

Nothing can be done in Afghanistan without first destroyng Pakistan as a sovereign nation. Pakistan cannot be destroyed until Saudi and gulf support for Pakis, plus Brit-US support for Pakis - is withdrawn. A lot is drummed about in India about so-called Pashtun nationalism -etc., but these Pashtuns are opportunists, and for long now Islamized to the core. They fought the Soviets with an extra bite because of their mullahcracy's projection of communism as anti-Islam as an ideology. Their opposition to the US is guided not by ideology - but a kind of ethnic hostility, subject to the value of US as a source of capital and weapons in continued jihad.

Just so-called developmental efforts or training the Afghan police - has no impact at all on ground. The Pashtuns will take all that training, or developmental works - but they will not give up supporting jihad, or opportunistically helping out or striking at India, if they see benefit in it - either domestically or from foreign sources. One just has to remember the Taleb approach to India - when no Pashtunism was evident where it really mattered for India.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 Nov 2012 10:14

Afghan Warlords Regrouping
Afghanistan will certainly slip into a brutal civil war. It cannot be stopped.

One of the most powerful mujahedeen commanders in Afghanistan, Ismail Khan, is calling on his followers to reorganise and defend the country against the Taliban as Western militaries withdraw, in a public demonstration of faltering confidence in the national government and the Western-built Afghan National Army.

Mr. Khan is one of the strongest of a group of warlords who defined the country’s recent history in battling the Soviets, the Taliban and one another, and who then were brought into President Hamid Karzai’s Cabinet as a symbol of unity. Now, in announcing that he is remobilising his forces, Mr. Khan has rankled Afghan officials and stoked fears that other regional and factional leaders will follow suit and re-arm, weakening support for the government and increasing the likelihood of civil war.

This month, Mr. Khan rallied thousands of his supporters in the desert outside Herat, the cultured western provincial capital and the centre of his power base, urging them to coordinate and reactivate their networks. And he has begun enlisting new recruits and organising district command structures.

“We are responsible for maintaining security in our country and not letting Afghanistan be destroyed again,” Mr. Khan, the Minister of Energy and Water, said at a news conference over the weekend at his offices in Kabul. But after facing criticism, he took care not to frame his action as defying the government: “There are parts of the country where the government forces cannot operate, and in such areas the locals should step forward, take arms and defend the country.”

Mr. Karzai and his aides, however, were not greeting it as an altruistic gesture. Governor of Herat province called Mr. Khan’s reorganisation an illegal challenge to the national security forces. And Mr. Karzai’s spokesman, Aimal Faizi, tersely criticised Mr. Khan.

“'The remarks by Ismail Mr. Khan do not reflect the policies of the Afghan government,” Mr. Faizi said. “The government of Afghanistan and the Afghan people do not want any irresponsible armed grouping outside the legitimate security forces structures.”

In Kabul, Mr. Khan’s provocative actions have played out in the news media and brought a fierce reaction from some members of Parliament, who said the warlords were preparing to take advantage of the U.S. troop withdrawal set for 2014.

“People like Ismail Mr. Khan smell blood,” Belqis Roshan, a senator from Farah province, said in an interview. “They think that as soon as foreign forces leave Afghanistan, once again they will get the chance to start a civil war, and achieve their ominous goals of getting rich and terminating their local rivals.”

Indeed, Mr. Khan's is not the only voice calling for a renewed alliance of the mujahedeen against the Taliban, and some of the others are just as familiar.

Marshal Muhammad Qasim Fahim, an ethnic Tajik commander who is Mr. Karzai’s first Vice-President, said in a speech in September, “If the Afghan security forces are not able to wage this war, then call upon the mujahedeen.”

Another prominent mujahedeen fighter, Ahmad Zia Massoud, said in an interview at his home in Kabul that people were worried about what was going to happen after 2014, and he was telling his own followers to make preliminary preparations.

“They don’t want to be disgraced again,” Mr. Massoud said. “Everyone tries to have some sort of Plan B. Some people are on the verge of re-arming.”

He pointed out that it was significant that the going market price of Kalashnikov assault rifles had risen to about $1,000, driven up by demand from a price of $300 a decade ago.

“Every household wants to have an AK-47 at home,” he said.

One senior Western official in Kabul saw Mr. Khan’s actions as the start of a wave of political positioning before the 2014 transition and said it bore close watching. The allies want to avoid any replay of the civil war in the ‘90s that led hundreds of thousands of Afghans to flee. A renewed civil war would undo much of what the West has tried to accomplish.

Mr. Khan is one of the towering figures of the resistance against the Soviets and the Taliban, and his power base in Herat province, along the border with Iran, has remained relatively thriving throughout the war, despite a recent rise in kidnappings and militant attacks.

After years of consolidating power in the ‘80s and early ‘90s, he was forced to flee Herat after the Taliban took the city. After the northern coalition and U.S.-led invasion drove out the Taliban in 2001, he was restored as Governor of Herat. But he was removed by Mr. Karzai in 2004, prompting violent demonstrations among his supporters.

He continues to exert strong influence in the western regions today, and he clashes regularly with the current Governor, Daud Shah Saba, Western officials say.

Following the public criticism that he was creating an armed opposition to the government, Mr. Khan insisted at his news conference in Kabul on Saturday that he was not re-arming his followers or opposing the security forces, but rather wanted the mujahedeen to work with the army and the police as a sort of reserve force, warning them, for example, if they saw signs of Taliban infiltration.

“This does not mean we are rebelling against the government,” he said. “We are struggling for 30 years to build this government, and we are not allowing this government to be toppled.”

Still, such an auxiliary role is exactly what was envisioned for the Afghan Local Police, organised and trained at great cost by U.S. Special Operations forces in recent years.

A former mujahedeen fighter, Saeed Ahmad Hussaini, a member of the provincial council in Herat, said that if the United States had not yet recognised its failure in Afghanistan, the Afghan people certainly had.

“We have rescued this nation twice from the hands of invaders and oppressors, and we will rescue it once more if needed,” he said. “People cannot tolerate the whippings and beatings of the Taliban.” — New York Times News Service

Afghanistan is too fractious to be one nation state. Afghan leaders have no vision as they are mostly warlords and do not see beyond their respective clans or ethnicity. To add to the problem, Pakistan has been meddling for far too long there. Both Afghanistan & Pakistan need to be partitioned for the region to be pestilence free. It is in India's interest too.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 15 Nov 2012 21:27

The only solution if the Afghans wants to avoid civil war is to allow the ANSF to invade FATA and NWFP after US troops leave...Indians will be happy to provide millitary support to them....

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 16 Nov 2012 21:37

Hindus protest in Kabul over cremation problem

Members of the minority Hindu community rallied against residents of the Qalacha neighbourhood of Kabul for opposing the cremation of their relatives’ bodies.
Dozens of protestors in Pashtunistan Ward also accused the Afghan police and army of preventing them from burning the corpses of their near and dear ones in line with the Hindu ritual.
They also carried a woman’s body in a vehicle and sought a place for cremating it. One protestor, Raji Singh Dilnawaz, told Pajhwok Afghan News they wanted to burn their dead relatives in Qalacha.
But area people and security forces did not allow them to perform the cremation ceremonies, he complained, asking the government to drive Hindus and Sikhs from the country if it could not resolve the problem.
With his collar torn and a loudspeaker in his hand, Dilnawaz chanted: “Down with a government that can’t give us our rights. Aren’t we Afghan citizens, aren’t we sons of the soil?”
As the protestors wept and tossed bottles in the air, one of them, Darwand Singh, blamed Qalacha residents for opposing the cremation of Sikhs’ bodies in the area.
“Afghan police and soldiers slapped me and said we will never be allowed to follow our tradition,” warning of continuing their protest and blocking the road.
According to another demonstrator, Avatar Singh, the Ministry of Religious Affairs has failed to keep a 2003 promise regarding the creation of a crematorium. The problem needed to be addressed on a priority basis, he said.
A minority representative in the Senate, Anar Kali Honaryar, also participated in the protest. She explained residents, not security forces, had prevented the cremation ceremony in Qalacha.
The lawmaker claimed winning a promise from the security personnel regarding an early solution to the problem. She demanded the arrest of the elements stopping Hindus from burning their dead relatives.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 17 Nov 2012 00:57

^^ These are actually Kabuli Sikhs. A few of them still live there in terrible conditions, in bombed out Gurdwaras. Because of threats and insecurity, their children don't even go to school.
Sikh and Hindu refugees from Afghanistan and Pakistan need to be granted citizenship on a priority basis.

arun · Post by **arun** » 03 Dec 2012 22:03

Time Magazine reports on the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s machinations to steal Afghanistan’s water in cahoots with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Hardly the stuff of Mohammadden brotherhood.

Strangely India gets a mention in the article:

……………. The anxieties about Iranian and Pakistani meddling are exemplified by the speculation around the long-stalled Salma dam, being built by India in the province of Herat in western Afghanistan, which borders Iran. The dam has the potential to irrigate nearly 75,000 hectares and produce 42 MW of electricity. However, the project is already four years behind schedule. Its cost has doubled and is expected to rise by another 50%. Some Afghan officials are astonished that Indian engineers, who have built highways in Afghanistan in record time, are taking so long to complete the dam. They hypothesize that Iranian diplomatic meddling has caused the delays.

The Indians, however, deny it. “Afghans tell us that Iran has created issues, but we haven’t had to talk to Iran about it because we haven’t had evidence linking them to insecurity there,” says Gautam Mukhopadhaya, the Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, blaming the delay on cost escalation. “The Salma dam will be completed, no question about that.” ………………

Read it all:

What Iran and Pakistan Want from the Afghans: Water

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 04 Dec 2012 03:25

ramana wrote:Pegging them in dollars undervalues the Indian contribution for it has changed the way ordinary Afghans see India.

Most Western aid is recycled into buying Western products.

Recently met an Afghan refugee shopkeeper. he was talking fondly, of how he was treated like a human being in Hindostan and how Pakis and talibanis are "Khabeez ka aulaad".. He narrated a popular joke amongst Pathans of Mazar (perhaps elsewhere as well).. People asked Karzai,"How is India?" and HK replies "Kabhi Khushi kabhi gam"... Then they ask him how is Afghanistan and HK replies "Kabhi Rocket kabhi Bum"

The man game me few things for free, simply after knowing I was Indian...

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 04 Dec 2012 03:54

^^ Atri ji, one thing I don't understand is this - We keep hearing reports of how effusive Afghans are in their fondness for India. Yet, the treatment of Kabuli and Jalalabadi Sikhs and Hindus by the local populace leaves much to be desired. They have been living in bombed out gurudwaras, they too afraid to send their children to school, and they are constantly pestered to convert.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 04 Dec 2012 03:59

This is Islam. They will act very kindly towards kuffar till they reach critical mass and then halal time.