ramdas wrote:Indeed it will take a huge effort to chuck us "out". In other words, does this mean that even if we resist FMCT (in the event of TSP resistance ceasing) uncompromisingly and conduct another round of tests, throwing us off the official high table is more or less impossible ?
Ramdas-ji, we need to understand what constitutes the "high table" - this lies at the heart of the nuclear deal..First up, the nuke deal brings us back into the legit global nuke trade - this is a "privilege" accorded to most countries in the world, barring a few "rogue" states, Israel and Pakistan...With the deal, India is "out" of the morass effectively..This isnt a high table, just getting back at a level of, say, New Zealand...It allows us to enter into 123-type agreements with every country which has anything to trade - US to Kazakhstan...
But the next things are more interesting, and constitutes the "high table"...One, India enters the global nuclear "club" as a
certified nuke weapons state - admittedly not in NPT terms, but for all manner and purposes, a country that posseses nuclear weapons...Which makes us only the 6th state in the world to have that privilege...This is the real deal - this is why the US had to spend so much political capital (we wanted a "clean" waiver, rmeember?)...There is absolutely zero appetite in the international system to give that waiver to any other country...It will be impossible to build consensus around anyone else, certainly not Pakistan...
And "consensus" is where the next stage comes in...Part of the deal is the US-sponsorship of India to the 4 multilateral export control regimes — the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Missile Technology Control Regime, the Australia Group and the Wassenaar Group...NSG is the big one, and the ball has been set in motion...Once we are there, the "consensus" will need us to agree!
Now, how does that affect our position on FMCT/CTBT? Not too much...First, there is no agreement among even the principals on the contours of the treaties..Second, even if for argument's sake US tried to put India back in the "doghouse" in a fit of pique, what does it have to do? It has to convince Russia, France, UK and 40 odd other states to rescind the "clean" NSG waiver to India...I that a plausible scenario? Not really...what it can do is to scsuttle our membership of the export control regimes..Which is why we are hurrying to finish the formalities on them...
For Pak, FMCT is a death trap...Even after signing the FMCT, it does not get anything tangible in return on nuke trade..But it caps its own fissile material at current levels...India, on the other hand can use every single pound of Pu (R and W) it has for our weapons programme - and that is already enough for 300 warheads? We can run our power proramme exclusively on imported fuel with several 123s been signed up...which is precisely why Pak is not willing to sign up...Lets see if they do...I am sure the conditions under which they do will give us enough reaosns to backtrack as well
