Intelligence & National Security Discussion

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Feb 2011 20:43

Did they ask the Pakis where the problems are coming from?

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 Feb 2011 09:39

They have strange sense of humour

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 12 Feb 2011 09:11

At Mazagon Dock near the southern tip of Mumbai, hidden behind high concrete walls, hundreds of Indian workers are putting the finishing touches on the hulls of two 217-foot Scorpène-class attack submarines, the first of six slated to be built over the next few years.

Nearby, workers are adding to India's fleet of stealth frigates and guided-missile destroyers.

One big reason India is beefing up its arsenal: China.

Craig Alpert · Post by **Craig Alpert** » 17 Feb 2011 19:57

Sleuths fail to crack code of Karmapa hard discs

Highly placed informed sources told TOI that though the other contents in Chinese and Tibetans had been opened and the contents translated or read by interpreters, sleuths of the investigating agencies were not able to get to the contents which are also in Chinese but in a code, which has yet to be cracked.
"We have gone through the contents that were not in code and had them also translated by interpreters. It is mostly material relating to religious discourses that have either been given or are on the cards and schedules of various programmes of the Karmapa and the Dalai Lama at various places", they added.

Sources said that efforts were being made to get to the information that was in code and that would only be possible after the code had been cracked. "Some specialists are working on them and others may be out on the job in the hope that we can get to the contents as soon as possible", they claimed.

Meanwhile it was reliably learnt that the investigating agencies here had also taken the help of senior persons of a Chinese company Long Jian Bridge and Road Construction company, which is building the Theog-Hatkori-Rohru road to translate the contents, which is in Chinese in the hard discs of the lap tops and the computers.
This was done to cross check and ascertain whether the contents had been understood and translated by the interpreters who were working on them and even the Chinese personnel of the company had clarified that the contents related mostly to religious discourses and programmes of the Dalai Lama.
However, deciphering the code in which the main contents of the hard discs of the computers and lap tops has become a matter of concern, as sleuths of the intelligence agencies feel that there had to be some reason why the particular contents were on coded form, while the religious discourses were not in code.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Feb 2011 02:56

A RAW officers son died in a NOIDA mall.

IAF objects to highrises near RAW's aviation branch

sum · Post by **sum** » 21 Feb 2011 12:18

Japan building foreign spy service: WikiLeaks

Japan is setting up its first fully-fledged post-war foreign spy service, modelled on the CIA and Britain's MI6, according to a classified US cable obtained by WikiLeaks, a report said on Monday.

The new intelligence service aims to spy on China and North Korea and to gather information to prevent terrorist attacks, said Australia's Sydney Morning Herald, citing a US cable WikiLeaks exclusively provided to the daily.

The espionage unit is being created under the wing of Japan's top intelligence agency, the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office (Naicho), which reports to the prime minister, the Herald said.

Then-Naicho director Hideshi Mitani revealed in 2008 that a "human intelligence collection capability" was a priority, in talks with then head of the US State Department's bureau of intelligence and research, Randall Fort.

An expert on intelligence issues in Japan, who asked not to be named, said that Japan does not yet have an operational "human intelligence branch".

Japan does not seek to recruit foreign nationals as agents or informants, the expert said, instead relying on Japanese businessmen and journalists abroad to gather intelligence, paying them out of "secret funds" controlled by the foreign ministry and cabinet office.

Japan seems to be even worse than us in foreign intelligence gathering department ( R&AW is critised for having very little HUMINT in places of interest)

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 23 Feb 2011 05:49

Policy paralysis

All this is clearly commonsensical but China’s rapid rise is shaking up the strategic milieu around India and Indian armed forces will have to be made capable of tackling that challenge. This rise is actually now an old story and the Indian government should have been ready long back. But the reality is that Indian defence modernisation is lagging behind and the government, particularly, the present defence minister, is largely responsible for the sad state of affairs today in the military realm.

aditya.agd · Post by **aditya.agd** » 23 Feb 2011 08:20

Indian policy planners have to get ready for a 2 front simultaneous war with China and Pakistan. Our intelligence setup must be ready to break Tibet from China, Baluchistan from Pakistan to win this war.

We should have never agreed to Tibet being part of China. Tibet should serve as a buffer between China and India.

aditya.agd · Post by **aditya.agd** » 23 Feb 2011 08:21

deleted.

Craig Alpert · Post by **Craig Alpert** » 25 Feb 2011 06:25

India, Bangla to redraw border

By straightening out the 4,100-km boundary, India may end up losing some land because it has more enclaves on the other side that would be absorbed by Bangladesh. "That is not a major issue, given the fact that it would forever settle the issue that has been on for centuries," the official said.

The 130 Indian Chitmahals (enclaves) occupy a land of some 20,000 acres while the Bangladesh Chitmahals in India occupy about 12,000 acres. In effect, India would end up losing some 8,000 acres.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 Feb 2011 18:46

Bodes well for the future security scenario for the country. A disgrace.

Ghosts Who Walk
Long overdue, a taskforce report on how to reform our intel agencies

SAIKAT DATTA

Spywork For Dummies

Lack of coordination: Turf battles have slowed down or completely blocked reform No financial accountability: Secret service funds steadily increasing, without unused funds being surrendered
Press reports as intelligence: Artfully cloaked news reports from international publications passed off as source reports
Poor recruitment policies: RAW suffers from the “tail-end syndrome” where UPSC bottom-rungers are offered jobs
Archaic training: The training curriculum in RAW remains archaic and too police-centric Drift in operational work: Breaches of national security due to poor analysis and inadequate follow-up action
Lack of cover: RAW operatives suffer from inadequate cover when posted abroad
***

Intelligence reforms in India have usually been an area that always sees a piecemeal approach, mostly crisis-driven and not based on a real assessment of need. Now, for the first time, a task force of the Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa) has come up with a comprehensive set of recommendations by examining the processes that have plagued India’s intelligence community.

Making a strong pitch for greater accountability via a parliamentary oversight board, the task force has suggested the government also look at strengthening financial accountability as a measure to prepare Indian intelligence agencies for the challenges of the 21st century.

“About a year ago, vice-president Hamid Ansari pointed out that there is a need for statutory oversight of our intelligence agencies. That was the spark needed...for us at idsa,” director-general N.S. Sisodia told Outlook. In a first, the think-tank decided to look at preparing recommendations that examine the critical processes of national security “to promote a healthy debate and help the government take an informed decision”, says Sisodia.

The task force examined the efficacy of the current operational structure, recruitment, ability to process raw inputs into actionable intelligence, technology upgrades and better intelligence coordination between the agencies (currently riven by turf wars). Led by R. Banerji, a well-regarded former special secretary in raw, with P.K. Upadhya and Brig Raj Shukla as its members, it held a series of consultations with the strategic community, including former nsa Brajesh Mishra, the recently deceased K. Subrahmanyam and a host of ex-IB and raw chiefs before preparing its report.

“Vice-president Ansari felt that a statutory oversight of our intel agencies was needed. That was our cue.” N.S. Sisodia, IDSA D-G “All major democracies have gone in for tiers of accountability and oversight...it empowers the intel agencies.” R. Banerji, Taskforce head
Some of the key problem areas identified by the task force are:

Lack of national intelligence coordination: Acknowledging that turf wars have proved to be a major impediment, the report notes that they have “taken a toll by slowing down or even completely blocking reform”. The task force also felt that proposed organisations like the National Counter Terrorism Centre (nctc) have the “potential to intensify turf battles among existing agencies”. Hence, it has recommended that the government appoint a national intelligence coordinator to end turf battles and assist the national security advisor in preventing a repeat of intelligence failures like Kargil and the terrorist attack on Mumbai in 2008.

No financial accountability: The task force felt that “to improve efficiency... there can be no getting away from introducing some sort of external supervision and control, including legislative oversight”. It also examined critical lacunae in current procedures where there is no accountability of secret service funds. In fact, it observed that unlike other government budgetary allocations, funds here never lapse at the end of a financial year. “Ironically enough, the secret service funds portion has been steadily increasing and it is that portion which is never surrendered whereas other portions of funds allotted do lapse if schemes remain unimplemented.” It feels these “aberrations need to be controlled and scrutinised”.

Press reports passed off as secret intelligence: The task force did not mince words where “very common examples of misuse of operational practices” such as “artfully cloaking” news reports from “international publications such as the (International) Herald Tribune, Le Monde or foreign magazines such as Der Spiegel as source reports”. Many intelligence operatives would then source these news reports to their “non-existent human source assets” and even claim secret service funds. As a result, Indian intelligence has been plagued by spectacular failures on several occasions.

Poor recruitment policies: The task force noted that raw suffered from the “tail-end syndrome” where the “bottom of the entrance lists” of those appearing for the upsc examinations were offered jobs. Even the Intelligence Bureau (IB), which used to have an excellent earmarking system, has now “diluted” its standards. Both agencies seem to have confined their “deputation quotas” to the Indian Police Service. As a result, specialised requirements such as science and technology or intake of defence service officers have suffered. The task force has strongly recommended open recruitment to ensure that the most talented professionals are recruited. It noted that this is the current practice in frontline intelligence agencies of countries like the US, the UK and Israel.

Archaic training: The “training curriculum in raw”, the report notes, “remains archaic and too police-centric”. Training methods have not even incorporated “modern technological advances in methods of communication” for running a source. In the IB, training schedules have been ‘shortened” to meet operational needs, far short of the ideal two years needed to produce good intelligence operatives. The task force also points out that an earlier recommendation to establish a common training centre for all intelligence agencies “was not accepted”.

Poor analysis and drift in operational work: “Many breaches of national security occurred in the past and continue to occur today, not for want of intelligence, but due to poor analysis and inadequate follow-up action.” The task force analysed the problem and said operations is an area that needs urgent attention. It recommends that analysts be trained in modern prescriptive work which can then ensure better supervision in operations.

Lack of cover jobs: A major problem for raw operatives has been the inadequate cover they get when posted abroad. Sadly, the report says, “in India efforts were made earlier to experiment with non-official cover by setting up a travel agency or a security wing thereof with operations overseas. But these proposals did not get off the ground due to last-minute bureaucratic obstacles”. The current diplomatic cover “limits access to spot real targets” and causes issues on handling “high-value assets”. It also restricted gathering intelligence in specialised fields like economics and technology. “While working on the report, we noted that a balance must be maintained between operational efficiency and oversight mechanisms,” Banerji told Outlook. “All major democracies have gone in for several tiers of accountability and oversight and it empowers intelligence agencies to produce sharper results.”

The last major institutional and systemic reform in India’s national security was undertaken in the aftermath of the Kargil war. But in 2008, when LeT terrorists attacked Mumbai, it revealed that much of the improvements envisaged had failed to materialise. Now, an attempt has been made to address the needs of India’s intelligence community rather than take a crisis-driven approach. Hopefully, those responsible for India’s security will approach the recommendations with an open mind.

sum · Post by **sum** » 25 Feb 2011 18:52

A major problem for raw operatives has been the inadequate cover they get when posted abroad. Sadly, the report says, “in India efforts were made earlier to experiment with non-official cover by setting up a travel agency or a security wing thereof with operations overseas. But these proposals did not get off the ground due to last-minute bureaucratic obstacles”

So, basically India has no NOCs or front companies doing our bidding at all ( standard process of most countries intel wings)..

sawant · Post by **sawant** » 25 Feb 2011 20:08

I wonder how good is our intelligence if SFs are compromised...
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 572055.cms

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2011 21:31

Sum,
In India intelligence is a sarakari pesh. Its treated as another govt job. All these leaks and stories when a new RAW/IB chief is about to be appointed are examples of anonymouse knives. They are basically to tarnish whoever is appointed. I would have all leaks plugged and those leakers dismissed. Even if the chief is corrupt and good for nothing fellow, these guys cannot leak anything about him. And haul up any presswala who wants to even name the chief. If not they(leakers) will leak to foreigners with impunity for they will think they are venting or advancing their own career prospects.

Unlike children who should be seen and not hears, RAW chiefs should not be seen or heard.

To add to this problem is the police origins of the intel agencies. Intelligence is military function. Its for war fighting while police is for crime investigation. That is the fundamental problem of Indian intelligence. They are superb after the event and will round up all the facts in 24 hrs of the event. But cannot prevent it. Eg. B Raman rounded up the Memon gang connection to 93 blasts in 48hrs. He knew every flight those guys were on to escape India after the event.

Also the constant deputation and moving out of cadre prevents the bulding of experience which is the most important aspect.
As long as politicians keep the RAW 'uncooked' this will keep happening.

Parliementary oversight will lead to ineffciency as ourpoliticnas need to mature. It looks good on paper. All agencies report to the PM and that is all they need. And as they function thru the Cabinet Secy, the highest bureaucrat and its the Secretariat of the President. So there is oversight and accountability.

The best option is to create a new agency (500-1000 people as core) which does not have the limitations of govt service - fixed retirement age and other crap. Or hand it over to military as part of war fighting apparatus.

Indian intelligence agencies are not an anti-coup protection. The anti-coup protection is the Indian military's professional loyalty to INDIA.

And lets bury the Kitchener-Cruzon spat once and for all. The Brits have gone but the Raj still lingers.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Feb 2011 00:26

^^ Very good Post. Got it spot on there imo. But the whole idea of IB and RAW split by Indira was to have an alternate right?

IB scores a decent 6.5 out of 10. RAW is just abysmal and shocking, maybe 1 out of 10. They have no sources in neighbouring countries and operate like a police service. It needs a total re-think, I laugh every time I see ex RAW chief saying India should do xyz. Question becomes What did you do to change things?

There were very good RAW chiefs. PKHT was one of them. He was one of the few who actually gave press briefings. And I'll be honest with you, I used to monitor the press on RAW nearly everyday, while he was present. There was always news, that RAW did this or that (good and bad but at least we knew what was going on in terror cases, investigative angles). Since he has gone, info has really dried up, reluctance to release to the media the facts. Quite sad. PKHT had actually commissioned this Banerji report that's in the article above if memory serves me right. PKHT has been brought back to look at training I believe. But none of this solves the main issue of the problem.

Ramana, You are right, you know, we don't have the maturity amongst the MPs yet. There is talk that a Director of Intelligence will be created on the lines of the Office of DNI in the US. This is principally to take the pressure of the likes of MKN - who deals with major political issues and internal security. I mean how much can the man deal with.

Really, something needs to be done. Even the external operations that we have lead to date is by IB or had considerable IB involvement! IB Directors are now visiting international capitals for cooperation.

But no PM wants to touch it, even the few good men who were RAW chiefs havent been able to do a lot. What does this mean? Is there a consistuency that doesn't want change? Is it about votes? What is it?

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 26 Feb 2011 01:55

sawant wrote:I wonder how good is our intelligence if SFs are compromised...
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 572055.cms

You are reading too much in small news. it happens every where.

IB scores a decent 6.5 out of 10. RAW is just abysmal and shocking, maybe 1 out of 10. They have no sources in neighbouring countries and operate like a police service. It needs a total re-think, I laugh every time I see ex RAW chief saying India should do xyz. Question becomes What did you do to change things?

Source ? Otherwise there are just word is air. Understand that you are angry............there are no J bond type who could turn the tide Maoist tide in Nepal or bring back India's most wanted in car boot across Wagha boarder. In real world things work differently.
Chinese could not predict Tibet uprising
CIA could not predict fall of USSR or current pan Arabic revolution.
SK and USA could not predict NK nuclear explosion
IMO RAW does what it asked to do and is very careful of not being exposed. GOI does not want want bad name to peaceful rise and RAW is used in reactive mode.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Feb 2011 04:00

rsingh wrote: Source ? Otherwise there are just word is air. Understand that you are angry............there are no J bond type who could turn the tide Maoist tide in Nepal or bring back India's most wanted in car boot across Wagha boarder. In real world things work differently.
Chinese could not predict Tibet uprising
CIA could not predict fall of USSR or current pan Arabic revolution.
SK and USA could not predict NK nuclear explosion
IMO RAW does what it asked to do and is very careful of not being exposed. GOI does not want want bad name to peaceful rise and RAW is used in reactive mode.

Brother. Ask anyone who is part of the organisation.

The PRC, CIA etc failed in a lot of things. But, even having said that they are pretty good at what they do to a certain extent. CIA is focused on bigger issues for them than the current arab uprising such as Iraq war, AfPak issues etc. These are all done under priority basis. Who said CIA failed to predict pan arabic revolutions? Have you been monitoring the articles posted on the West Asia thread?

Chinese failed to predict the Tibet uprising and they actually got it hopelessly wrong. But look at the other operations that we hear of. Indian diplomats ensnaared in honey traps from Beijing to Colombo, Karmapa, NE militants etc etc. What about our Indian operations?? And please, I have enough people telling me RAW has NO sources in TSP, read G Parthasarthy's comments after they found out about that embassy employee spying for ISI. RAW ops in TSP use different techniques. Whilst RAW has the technical data, it lacks in HUMINT sources. Akin to the CIA in 1990's. Read the old CIA books and the biography of former intel Czars.

All I'll say is look at the major successful operations in the last few years and what you'll find that most of them are IB led (yes even the cross border operations, RAW plays a small role with not much value addition.). Did you know today Mumbai ATS is sending operatives across our borders to gather intelligence or investigate crimes? The only things that RAW seems to be doing properly are managing national security of our assets and important national defence programs. This is as much detail I can reveal on what they do.

As long as people are fooled by what is RAW doing, they are winning.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 26 Feb 2011 08:51

ramana wrote:Intelligence is military function. Its for war fighting while police is for crime investigation. That is the fundamental problem of Indian intelligence. They are superb after the event and will round up all the facts in 24 hrs of the event. But cannot prevent it. Eg. B Raman rounded up the Memon gang connection to 93 blasts in 48hrs. He knew every flight those guys were on to escape India after the event.

Also the constant deputation and moving out of cadre prevents the bulding of experience which is the most important aspect.

-----------

Parliementary oversight will lead to ineffciency as ourpoliticnas need to mature. It looks good on paper. All agencies report to the PM and that is all they need. And as they function thru the Cabinet Secy, the highest bureaucrat and its the Secretariat of the President. So there is oversight and accountability.

Intelligence is very different from a military function...By its very nature, intelligence work has to deal with nuances and ambiguities in thought and action that militaries just cannot handle...No wonder most intel officers have a very contemptuous view of the "brains" of military officers....

Going by the various reports that periodically comes into the media about RAW, one wonders what really the problem is...If the issues are so well known, what is preventing corrective action? Based on the dodgy, imperfect information available, it seems the biggets issue is that of accountability...Both ABV and MMS left the oversight of RAW to their NSAs...which means that RAW has operated without political oversight for more than a decade now...Parliamentary scrutiny is more than just important, its imperative..Its a bit facile to say our MPs are immature - if our MPs can be entrusted with oversight of IB (which is under the Home Ministry), the military and the nuclear programme, there is no reason why they cannot be trusted with info about RAW...NO democracy in the world allows its prime intel agency to be accounable to no one...

A last point on deputation...Deputation is not necessarily bad at all - it brings in specialist skills, keeps the organisation fresh...At the same time, a core cadre of permanent employees should be there......the issue is not about whether the head is from within or outside, but whether he brings the right kind of leadership...In recent years, the most effective RAW chief has been AS Siali - and he was an "outsider"...The legendary Meir Amit was techincally an outsider when he was appointed as head of Mossad...

I am sure there are no easy answers....But accountability and leadership are crucial..

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 26 Feb 2011 09:11

The New Virology: From Stuxnet to biobombs, the future of war by other means

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... w_virology

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 04 Mar 2011 09:20

Stuxnet isn't all it's cracked up to be -- but then neither is cyberwar, really

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/20 ... war_really

kit · Post by **kit** » 08 Mar 2011 11:18

Dont know whether this should be in the humor thread but anyway

http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-news ... n-Pakistan

nits · Post by **nits** » 08 Mar 2011 16:45

How SIMI set up terror shop in Kerala once again with ease

Very recently, an intelligence brief highlighted the manner in which the Students Islamic Movement of India had re-grouped in Kerala, utilising the strong roots that the outfit has in the state.

Intelligence Bureau sources point out that any terror group would find it easy to set up base in the state. Security agencies say that the vast coastline, the Malabar coast in particular, is well connected to the international waters. Poor vigil has ensured that terrorists manage to push in their arms and ammunition with much ease.

Security agencies have noticed that certain distance education centres were being set up only for the Muslim youth in Kerala, aimed at luring the youth into terrorism. Although this trend is not that full-fledged, the police believe it may be flourishing in certain pockets of the state.

vishal · Post by **vishal** » 09 Mar 2011 06:52

SF Gate reporter claims to bribe his way past gate agent at Srinagar airport. Gate agents are airline employees & not CISF, right? Srinagar airport, of all places!!!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... ype=travel

Extract: I hear an announcement: My "Jet Airways" flight to Delhi is closing.

I pull out two crumpled 500 rupee notes (roughly 20 bucks). I watch the paper portrait of Gandhi as it passes from my hand to theirs.

Stan_Savljevic · Post by **Stan_Savljevic** » 11 Mar 2011 01:08

To catch a thief
http://telegraphindia.com/1110310/jsp/c ... 691090.jsp

aditya.agd · Post by **aditya.agd** » 11 Mar 2011 07:38

I hope India secures all the cricket venues from these terror threats. They should not take any threat lightly. Pakistani ISI and Pakistani Army is hell-bent on creating trouble in India during these sport events.

Those guys have nothing else to do in their lives.

aditya.agd · Post by **aditya.agd** » 11 Mar 2011 07:41

K for Kerala and K for Kashmir. I think all the Antony's should carefully look into kerala's woes. It is emerging as a major terrorist destination.

aditya.agd · Post by **aditya.agd** » 11 Mar 2011 07:43

Any politician connected with terrorists must be considered as a terrorist.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 14 Mar 2011 06:22

National Security Doctrine for India

One of the very first projects undertaken by the NSC ought to have been the drawing up of a cogent and comprehensive national security doctrine for the country, taking into account not only the internal and external security environment and their inter-linkages and implications, but also the Constitutional, political, social, economic, financial, scientific, technological and business and commercial dimensions of national security.
:
There was a sudden media flutter in March 2009 to the effect that “Forced into action by a dramatically changing security environment that has only worsened since the Mumbai attacks (26/11), the UPA government (had) started …drawing up a first-ever national security doctrine”. There has been no word since then as to the progress made in this direction. There has obviously been none for, on October 22, 2010, we find the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, calling for an “enlightened national security policy”, with the concept of contemporary national security being set “within a wider strategic and economic and social matrix”, and based on a holistic appreciation of the inter-related aspects and concerns impinging on a nation's overall well-being. He has also stressed the importance of modernisation of ‘defence doctrines', in view of the indispensable role of military power in buttressing the nation's stability and strength, and its ability to defend itself against armed aggression or insurgency.

ASPuar · Post by **ASPuar** » 15 Mar 2011 11:48

somnath wrote:
ramana wrote:Intelligence is military function. Its for war fighting while police is for crime investigation. That is the fundamental problem of Indian intelligence. They are superb after the event and will round up all the facts in 24 hrs of the event. But cannot prevent it. Eg. B Raman rounded up the Memon gang connection to 93 blasts in 48hrs. He knew every flight those guys were on to escape India after the event.

Also the constant deputation and moving out of cadre prevents the bulding of experience which is the most important aspect.

-----------

Parliementary oversight will lead to ineffciency as ourpoliticnas need to mature. It looks good on paper. All agencies report to the PM and that is all they need. And as they function thru the Cabinet Secy, the highest bureaucrat and its the Secretariat of the President. So there is oversight and accountability.
Intelligence is very different from a military function...By its very nature, intelligence work has to deal with nuances and ambiguities in thought and action that militaries just cannot handle...No wonder most intel officers have a very contemptuous view of the "brains" of military officers....

Going by the various reports that periodically comes into the media about RAW, one wonders what really the problem is...If the issues are so well known, what is preventing corrective action? Based on the dodgy, imperfect information available, it seems the biggets issue is that of accountability...Both ABV and MMS left the oversight of RAW to their NSAs...which means that RAW has operated without political oversight for more than a decade now...Parliamentary scrutiny is more than just important, its imperative..Its a bit facile to say our MPs are immature - if our MPs can be entrusted with oversight of IB (which is under the Home Ministry), the military and the nuclear programme, there is no reason why they cannot be trusted with info about RAW...NO democracy in the world allows its prime intel agency to be accounable to no one...

A last point on deputation...Deputation is not necessarily bad at all - it brings in specialist skills, keeps the organisation fresh...At the same time, a core cadre of permanent employees should be there......the issue is not about whether the head is from within or outside, but whether he brings the right kind of leadership...In recent years, the most effective RAW chief has been AS Siali - and he was an "outsider"...The legendary Meir Amit was techincally an outsider when he was appointed as head of Mossad...

I am sure there are no easy answers....But accountability and leadership are crucial..

Hearsay about the "brains" of military officers, and the contempt shown thereto by Intel officers is of hardly any value. The "brains" of the last chief of the R&AW (an IPS man) were decidedly sub par, while some of the most legendary intel figures in the world have been military men (C, the originator of MI6 was a Naval officer, while WJ Donovan, the father of American intelligence, and originator of the OSS was an Army man.. both British and US intel can legitimately be said to have been much more successful than our own nuancedly bureaucratically led orgs). The issue is not whether a person is military, or anything else, simply his or her suitability for the job. NF Suntook, a policeman who began his career in the Indian Navy was, by the way, one of the most successful chiefs of R&AW, while one of the worst was also from the IPS.

Agree fully that lack of accountability has led to rot, and leadership is lacking. No intel agency can work without clear political oversight and direction, much though the bureaucrats may think they can run the show themselves.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Mar 2011 20:10

ASP, Chanakya says in one of his dictums that" relyingon ministers to give advice on things not in their cognisance will lead to wrong policy" or words to that effect. To me in modern language it means don't ask a doctor of divinity about a heart condition.

Unless the opinion giver has responsibility to implement his opinion its next to useless. Only when the adviser has to implement his advise will he be grounded in reality.
Indian agencies by bifurcating themselves from action (separation from military and Foreign Policy) and further highly bureaucratic rules and isolation have made themselves irrelevant.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2011 00:59

Some links on four cognitive processes and how they shape information.

Cognitive Processes:

http://www.bestfittype.com/cognitiveprocesses.html

And

http://www.cognitiveprocesses.com/typecode.html

Essentially there is
Perception and Judgement

And Perception has Sensing and Intuting
and Judgement has Thinking an feeling
And all these have further divisions or categories based on Extravert or Introvert

A good analyst has to marshal/channel all these types to get to the bottom of things.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 16 Mar 2011 07:15

ASPuar wrote:Agree fully that lack of accountability has led to rot, and leadership is lacking. No intel agency can work without clear political oversight and direction, much though the bureaucrats may think they can run the show themselves

ASP-ji, the question about military/non-military is moot IMO...the "best" man should do the job..The question is of philosophy - intel agencies have a mandate very different from military organisations...They deal with ambiguities that mil organisations hate...Which was part of the reason why the CIA was set up "outside" the DOD, or Mossad was set-up despite the presence of the powerful Aman (mil intel, which technically remained as an oversight agency for political reasons)...

Bulk of intel work is about analysis of reams of information and arriving at trends that are (hopefully) prescient...

Net net, various skillsets are required - technical, psychological, linguistic - which is why intel agencies worldwide cast their recruitment nets wide - T-schools, language schools, police, military - by its vry nature it cant be a straitjacket..RAW was set up with a similar objective as well - and Kao and his "boys" were fashioned likewise..Somewhere down the line its lost the way, at least seemingly...

As a start, IMO they should immediately bring in parliamentary oversight over all intel agencies....Accountability does wonders to the most moribund setup...

ASPuar · Post by **ASPuar** » 16 Mar 2011 10:44

Somnathji, very true. I also agree with Ramana, that like many things in India, we have lost sight of the forest for the trees in intel as well. The triumvirate of Defence Policy, Foreign policy, and Intel collection and maintenance have become divorced from each other, with each imaginging that they can carry on while igonoring the other. A recipe for disaster.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 16 Mar 2011 10:51

ASPuar wrote:The triumvirate of Defence Policy, Foreign policy, and Intel collection and maintenance have become divorced from each other, with each imaginging that they can carry on while igonoring the other

Which is the job of the National Security Advisor, and his secratraiat at an institutional level...In India, perhps the only person really upto the job was JN Dixit...

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 16 Mar 2011 11:35

...Accountability is very important but even more so clear direction is important...People at the top have realised that Raw and sister agencies arent doing a good job..That is why the initiative taken by LKA and also the setting up of NTRO....
But these actions have only created more confusion rather than sorting out the problems...We need someone with insight who knows what he wants to do and stays at the helm for at least five years...
...The government is too focussed on other matters to be able to direct its energy in this direction as of now...Sad state of affairs...Another lapse and I think we will see some action

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 18 Mar 2011 06:48

RSoami wrote:That is why the initiative taken by LKA and also the setting up of NTRO

NTRO was setup as follow-up to the recos of the K Subramayam committee after Kargil...It was supposed to be a one-stop techint shop - similar to the National Security Agency in the US...

One of the issues in recent years (from ABV) is that the PM seems to have delegated oversight of intel to the NSA - so Brajesh Mishra, then MKN and now Shiv Menon seem to have oversight...This isnt desirable at all...

In the meanwhile, some more on the Samba spy case - from TV Rajeshwar..

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/honou ... m/764024/0

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Mar 2011 09:30

somnath wrote:One of the issues in recent years (from ABV) is that the PM seems to have delegated oversight of intel to the NSA - so Brajesh Mishra, then MKN and now Shiv Menon seem to have oversight...This isnt desirable at all...

Why is that not desirable ? Its NSA job to largely overlook civil Intel Agency and be a single point of advise on that matter.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 18 Mar 2011 10:20

^^^Well, the NSA is supposed to be an advisor to the PM in that trijunction area between intel, foreign policy and defence...He is, for want of a better word, the "intellectual shop" to come up with ideas and advice on matters that have cross-functional imact. Which is why the NSA has a separate staff, in NSCS to help him articulate and formulise the postulates...It is not an "opreational" job...

Intel is a specialised operational function, and need political oversight...As does the military and diplomacy...A single person cannot be the single functoinal point of contact - physically and intellectualy - for this wide canvas...

Unfirtunately in India the NSA has become a defacto functional Intel Czar, nuclear czar and foreign policy czar...

ASPuar · Post by **ASPuar** » 18 Mar 2011 10:27

^^

Agreed. The NSA is supposed to function as a national security ADVISOR, and not as a national security CONTROLLER. The ultimate say, must be an informed and well thought out decision by the political leadership, and not outsourced to any council or advisor.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Mar 2011 10:36

NSA generally end up being Intel Czar , IIRC there was similar allegation thrown at the end of US Home Land security chief of being an Intel Czar.

NSA task is to work with intel chief of Civilian and MI and be a single point of contact for the GOI for policy and intel matters, its not that GOI or CS has to rely on only NSA to filter out the details , but for practical day to day task he remains the boss.

A lot depends on the caliber of the person manning the post and the kind of relationship he enjoys with GOI and Agencies that report to him , his own understanding of such matter and how can he use it to shape the policy to India benefit , he certainly needs to be a visionary with a practical touch.

If you end up with a sub caliber person on that post , you will get similar result and has cascading effect.