Anindya wrote:IIRC we had a HT poll during the stone throwing days which showed that about 60% of the the Kashmir valley respondents supported some form of non-Indian political solution
There have been 3 surveys that I remember over the years. The first was done by Outlook magazine in its inaugural issue..And the last one was the Chatham House survey that got published recently (there was a third - I forget when/by whom)...Almost all of them confirm that the Kashmir valley (which is the Kashmiri Muslim) voice would prefer a "non India" solution, even though (quite surprisingly, or not so!) the numbers looking for a "merger into Pak" is relatively small..
So here is the situation:
1. KMs dont like us. Ceterus paribus condition, probably wont change in a long time.
2. We cant let go of Kashmir, for the obvious reasons.
3. There is an internal security dimension to the issue - needs to be managed.
4. Kashmir cannot define India's agenda with the rest of the world - has been our policy for the better part of the last 15 years...
5. Cannot let the world's discussion on Af in any way pass through K...
So what has been our responses (across govts over the same time period)?
1. Fence the border, saturate the area with troops - pull insurgency levels down to a bare minimum...SATP data shows that the military strategy has paid off in the last 5-6 years, with casualty levels at all time lows in 2010..aided of course by Pakistan's own problems..
2. Try to bring the political temperature down through elections etc..Give the sullen KMs less exuse to pick up stones or guns and al alterantive pipe to vent their spleen...Again something that has been somewhat of a success...
3. Drive Kashmir to irrelevance - again, things have moved in that direction...UNSC taking Kashmir off as an issue, none of the world powers really pontificating on Kashmir etc etc...
4. At a legal-political level, dilute the Art 370 to enhnace integration - "dilution by stealth" if you will...Soemthing that has been done successfully over the years...
So what should be our next steps? Provoke and bring along another round of intifada? Another round of clashes, inevitably leading to police firings, deaths? Or to continue with more of the above three?
A few more years of status quo wil enable the govt to seriously look at diluting Art 370 (on the issue of proerty owndership)even further...Maybe start with Jammu and Ladakh, then on to Kashmir...It will make sense only when the security situation in Kashmir to be good enough for people to WANT to migrate..Currently most people will baulk, including the pandits..
Instead of a slow, deliberate strategy of irrelvance of the issue, if we keep the pot boiling forever, the chances of us getting scalded will be a constant threat...
This isnt about party politics, BJP understood this pretty well while in govt........