Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2014 07:05

per the map Deans posted above 25-31 Aug was when Mariopol on the coast was engulfed and became another ukrainian pocket with an outlet to the sea only.
http://a-news.info/uploads/posts/2014-0 ... 50x528.jpg

looks like rebels get the general idea the SE quadrant of Ukr between russia and crimea is ripe for the plucking and unlikely to offer as much resistance as the north which borders kiev and hence likely to be hotly contested .

http://www.lonelyplanet.com/maps/europe ... kraine.jpg

who knows even Kherson could fall in the bag if panic is induced.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 03 Sep 2014 08:10

The scene of a smashed UKR tank with its top blown off is quite telling.
Wonder what kind of superior fire power the rebels applied to cause such a devastation.
That sight (and description of a tank crew's mangled body hanging from electric cables)
might send a chill down the spine of all UKR conscripts.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Sep 2014 08:26

Singha wrote:per the map Deans posted above 25-31 Aug was when Mariopol on the coast was engulfed and became another ukrainian pocket with an outlet to the sea only.
http://a-news.info/uploads/posts/2014-0 ... 50x528.jpg

looks like rebels get the general idea the SE quadrant of Ukr between russia and crimea is ripe for the plucking and unlikely to offer as much resistance as the north which borders kiev and hence likely to be hotly contested .
http://www.lonelyplanet.com/maps/europe ... kraine.jpg

who knows even Kherson could fall in the bag if panic is induced.

There are doubts about weather Mariupol is actually a pocket, since the Media has access to the city. Most likely explanation is that
rebel patrols reached the coastal road behind Mariupol but were numerically too weak to form a strong ring. (That would not have
been the case if it were regular Russian army units involved).

East of the Dnieper river, the area south of where the current conflict started (i.e. between the Russian border and crimea, which
includes Mariopol) has a larger Russian population than the area to the North (i.e. around Kharkov), so the South is more likely
to welcome the separatists/Russia.

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Sep 2014 09:49

ldev wrote:The payment for Ukraine:Isolation and punishment

The article originally appeared in the Rossiyskaya Gazeta in Russia. It looks at the Ukrainian crisis from a Russian standpoint. Interesting observations, that Russia does not expect outright support from the BRICS, that it is positive that the long term unspoken objective of the West is to replace Putin, that a normal relationship between Putin and the US is not possible even after the US Presidential elections and that the Kremlin now sees the US an outright enemy.....whew!!

Sanctions are not fatal. But in the case of sector-wide sanctions against entire industries, they will sour the economic situation and require a new model of development. Such a model does not yet exist, and a response mechanism to a serious economic blockade from the West has not been developed.
Russia has an economy that is not so deeply immersed in the global economy compared to China. But Russia is still bound very closely to global markets and especially to Europe, so it would be a bad idea to disregard the sanctions.
I also would not bank on Europe’s “greed”. Without a doubt, sanctions against Russia would be horrendously disadvantageous, but the pressure from the US has been very strong, and the informational situation surrounding Ukraine and the downed Malaysia Airlines flight has become extremely harsh. The international media has portrayed Russia as almost a rogue state.

There is no cause for panic, but Russia has not found herself in such a serious political, economic, or informational confrontation since 1991.
On a possible turn to the East
This would require very active work; we would need to seize the initiative and be highly assertive.
Russia does not expect the Brics or any developing countries to support its struggle against the Ukrainian government. They are not interested.
The fact that Russia’s actions led to a change of internationally recognised borders could also be taken as support for separatism on the territory of a neighbouring state. Such behaviour is not consistent with what China, India, or other developing nations consider appropriate in international relations.
At the same time, it is understood in Beijing, New Delhi, Brasilia, Pretoria, Tehran, and Buenos Aires that Russia’s actions had an extensive prehistory. Furthermore, it is recognised that Russia acted in response to pressure from the West, which heedlessly expanded its sphere of influence.
These countries will accordingly not join Washington’s chorus of those condemning Russia. In China, for example, the ‘‘battle for Ukraine” is not considered a local conflict, but a confrontation over the structure of a new global hierarchy. Russia’s defeat would mean the strengthening of the US and increased pressure on China. Thus, a certain amount of support is guaranteed.

On the aims of the West
It is seeking to end any support for the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. This is the immediate goal, as it is important to the US that Kiev achieves a military victory. Such a result is probably inevitable if Kiev secures the border with Russia.
This will not settle the Ukrainian crisis. Resistance will continue: instability, but with the territory generally under the control of the Ukrainian authorities.
The West’s long-term goal, about which it does not speak publicly, is a change in Russia’s domestic political situation, and regime change, if possible.
After all that happened this spring and summer, normal interactions between Washington and Moscow at higher levels are impossible. Not only for Obama, but in all likelihood for his successor. The Kremlin also sees the US as an outright enemy.
So the ideal scenario for the US is for Putin to leave office, especially now the level of demonisation has reached its peak, with highly personal attacks. We are not speaking of direct interference, but a deterioration in Russia’s position through sanctions, as a long-term way of weakening the ruling elite.
On why Israel’s operation disturbs the West less than the conflict in Ukraine
In the first place, everyone is accustomed to regular exacerbation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Second, Israel has enough allies within the US that it can expect support for absolutely any action, thanks to the influential Israel lobby.
Third, while Europe has much more sympathy for the Palestinians when compared to America, Europeans still harbour an enormous amount of guilt for the Holocaust. Thus it is frowned upon to criticise Israel, which is using military force to maintain its security.
On Russia’s introduction of sanctions
Russian sanctions came as a surprise.
I have a feeling that Europe did not expect such a harsh reaction. However, it was quite predictable. Moscow is not the type of capital city to tolerate being treated as a pariah or to succumb to overt pressure.
But because the sanctions war began, we must wait for the coming rounds. This is bad for everyone but the laws of politics are not always rational.
The most interesting thing is how this will affect the future of world trade and global regulations. What we are seeing from both sides aren’t violations but rather a disregard of WTO regulations, and thus politics reigns.
The Ukrainian crisis was the catalyst but the trend towards fragmentation of the global environment began earlier. It is possible that we will see a qualitative change in the world, far beyond the relations between Russia and the West.

Based on material from Lenta.ru and RBTH.

It means Russia & Putin slightly miscalculated western resolve for implementing the goals of whichever malevolent entity they are acting on behalf of. There is underestimation in Russia on the determination of US-Euro elite to impose a pathological order on rest of the world. Russia should have intervened effectively at the first provocation, rather than throw hints at how they really knew what was going on. They are facing an enemy in highly pro-active phase which will always make the first move. Eurasia and Asian countries should hunker down and prepare themselves on ideological lines to face this western assault.

A single leader in Eurasia or Asia who bungles up gives an opportunity to the US-Euro elite to intervene humanitarian-aly and cleanse countries of stabilizing figures or nationalists. Case in point is Yanukovych, NGOs and other sleepers will immidiately identify the weak target and create a destabilizing event with help of western intelligence agencies. Later on there will be some condemnation and humanitarian intervention with F18s and drones. Once air space is cleared, ISIS or Leftists will be unleashed on hapless public. This will be the pattern in times to come.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2014 10:11

south ukraine democratic republic has the advantage of providing a contiguous land corridor to the crimea which brings down cost for russia of provisioning the place -vs- by ferry across the sea of azov.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 03 Sep 2014 10:16

Deans wrote: East of the Dnieper river, the area south of where the current conflict started (i.e. between the Russian border and crimea, which
includes Mariopol) has a larger Russian population than the area to the North (i.e. around Kharkov), so the South is more likely
to welcome the separatists/Russia.

I thought even Kharkov oblast has about 60% Russian population? And there have been several small, but unseemly incidents even in Kharkov. As for the south, I thought even Odessa is Russian. Do you see any chances of either Kharkov and/or Odessa revolting against the Right Sector thugs? From what I understand, if either Kharkov or Odessa revolts, it is curtains for Ukraine as a country.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2014 12:24

both these cities must be well stocked with maidan thugs then to keep boots on ground.

although TSJ was claiming each sq m of eastern ukr was under 24x7 US surveillance not sure how the Ukr wandered so deep into the traps laid for them and why NATO is unable to furnish any clear evidence of russian mechanized units moving around firing artillery like no tomorrow.
maybe the idea _is_ to let eastern Ukr be lost to kiev to enable a tighter embrace of the rump Ukraine in NATO , a hot frontier with russia and continuing sanctions on Russia to weaken the elites around Putin...that would be just the kind of 'moskva spring' plan someone in DC would dream up and sell strongly in the high councils of the potus. that would also keep the baltic states in line and willing to host ABM and airbases.

a peaceful soln and federated settlement of issues is NOT of benefit to nato.

the nato under US tutelage has been playing this pushing deeper and deeper into russosphere game a long time now nearly 25 yrs. the bear has run of out buffer space to concede though and hence forced to fight back everywhere now, else the next nato member will be belarus

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Sep 2014 13:14

nageshks wrote:
Deans wrote: East of the Dnieper river, the area south of where the current conflict started (i.e. between the Russian border and crimea, which
includes Mariopol) has a larger Russian population than the area to the North (i.e. around Kharkov), so the South is more likely
to welcome the separatists/Russia.
I thought even Kharkov oblast has about 60% Russian population? And there have been several small, but unseemly incidents even in Kharkov. As for the south, I thought even Odessa is Russian. Do you see any chances of either Kharkov and/or Odessa revolting against the Right Sector thugs? From what I understand, if either Kharkov or Odessa revolts, it is curtains for Ukraine as a country.

Both Kharkov and Odessa oblasts have around a 40-45% Russian speaking population (vs. 70-75% in Donetsk and Luhansk).
Zaporizye (which is the oblast that can provide a corridor from the rebel districts to Crimea), is just under 50% Russian.
Odessa also has a lot of other nationalities, which are not very enthusiastic about being Ukrainian.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Sep 2014 13:41

Singha wrote:both these cities must be well stocked with maidan thugs then to keep boots on ground.

although TSJ was claiming each sq m of eastern ukr was under 24x7 US surveillance not sure how the Ukr wandered so deep into the traps laid for them and why NATO is unable to furnish any clear evidence of russian mechanized units moving around firing artillery like no tomorrow.

I think NATO surveillance is trying to find what is not there. Perhaps they (believing their own propaganda) are looking for vast armoured columns moving West from Russia, whereas this seems to be war fought at the company and platoon level.
I believe there would be small groups of Russian army `volunteers' inside Ukraine which will be difficult to track, since they will be indistinguishable from local rebels and don't have a fixed HQ etc. Similarly, a lot of equipment that might have come across the border will be things like AT Missiles, which are difficult to detect. One of the problems rebel press releases mention, is that quite often, their forces are numerically too weak to seal pockets, which is why they are not being reduced quickly.

If correct, this will also indicate that the Russian army has vastly improved its doctrine and junior officer quality since the Georgian conflict (where in turn, they performed far better than in Chechnya). The Red/ Russian army has traditionally planned operations at divisional level, with junior officers not being encouraged to show initiative or deviate from a plan.

My view is that the current set of Russian junior officers (commissioned after 2000 - when Putin came to power) are from a very different Russia than the Russia NATO thinks it knows. Several of the NCO's are no longer just senior conscripts, but combat veterans from Chechnya. A lot of the success of the Separatists/Russians is not from superior firepower (the opposite is true) but from better leadership at the platoon and company level - a typical scenario might be a Russian army `volunteer' officer and a few weapons specialists taking charge of separatist units.
The Ukrainians on the other hand are using Soviet style tactics - artillery/ air strikes to flatten static targets, and unimaginative use of conscript infantry, with no plan B.
The militia units have no clue of mechanised warfare and seem increasingly resentful about being used as cannon fodder by the
regular Ukrainian army.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2014 13:43

Odessa seems to be a wealthy, stylish and well heeled place..not some grey soviet era town...it would be mistaken for a french or italian city on the Mediterranean coast

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1451009

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Sep 2014 14:08

Latest situation map.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivan ... iginal.jpg

1. The area West of Mariopol is disputed (striped Pink colour). Not quite a pocket.
2. The pockets around Luhansk have been liquidated. (earlier maps showed 3 pockets in the area south of Luhansk).
Ukrainians admitted 700 POW's when one of the pockets surrendered.
3. The big pocket in the South remains. It has 1 Brigade (with an attacked tank group) and 2 Tank Battalions.
(the acronym `OMBP' stands for Independent Mobile brigade).
The smaller pocket to the east of the big one, has elements of 8 brigades and 7 militia battalions !
4. The separatist thrust towards the North (Slavyansk) ran our of steam and seems to have been pushed back a few miles.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Sep 2014 14:10

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 601064.cms

Ukraine president says ceasefire deal with Russian president reached

KIEV, UKRAINE: The office of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says he and Russian President Vladimir Putin have reached agreement on a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.

The brief statement on Wednesday gave no details and there was no immediate reaction from the Russia-backed separatists whom Ukrainian forces have been fighting since April.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2014 15:09

what does the blue line on the west side of the map mean? is that the boundary of the area claimed by the separatists?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Sep 2014 15:20

Singha wrote:what does the blue line on the west side of the map mean? is that the boundary of the area claimed by the separatists?

Yes, Its the boundary of the districts claimed by the separatists.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Sep 2014 15:21

Chinese Vice-Premier Statement Yesterday

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/22880

I want to make it clear that China categorically opposes the sanctions the United States and Western countries have taken against Russia. China categorically opposes colour revolutions and attempts to hold back Russia’s development. I already said to Mr Miller and Mr Sechin that we will do all within our power. Our cooperation is expanding substantially now, and this includes in trade in agricultural produce too.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Sep 2014 15:26

pankajs wrote:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 601064.cms

Ukraine president says ceasefire deal with Russian president reached
KIEV, UKRAINE: The office of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says he and Russian President Vladimir Putin have reached agreement on a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.

The brief statement on Wednesday gave no details and there was no immediate reaction from the Russia-backed separatists whom Ukrainian forces have been fighting since April.

Putin agreed that there ought to be a ceasefire, but that Ukraine should discuss that with the separatists, since Russia is not a party to the conflict.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 Sep 2014 17:02

Where is the LOC after the ceasefire? I hope the entire pinko area, hain? Surely these little pockets are not sustainable?
I thought the Freedom Fighters were insisting that the UkBapZis get out of the ENTIRE east Ukraine, which means everywhere east of the river.
Now vodka supplies will have to enter in a trickle to flood all that area before the next Spontaneous People's Protests. What do u make of the 4000-strong NATO Rapid Response (48-hour) Force which is to Travel Light, Hit Hard etc? All Blackwater mercenaries or have they recruited in Marseilles? How about in Pakistan? Time for ISISPU to make an appearance?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2014 17:07

the NATO rapid reaction force is just more of the same noise. the UK was tom toming its airmobile combined arms brigade a decade ago with 'joint force harriers' and lots of helicopters in AFM - precious little to show for it.

inevitably in a crunch situation it will be organic and wholesome units like american airborne divisions & some socom units who have to be the tripwire. the ponderous mechanized divisions are too slow and large to move fast....putin would long since have ravaged kiev before they appear in theater and equipped to attack. even a air campaign needs a week to organize on small scale and a month on large scale if amrika really puts its shoulder to the wheel. EU as usual would run out of fuel and munitions in a week of moderate use. hasty deployments under political pressure leads to accidents, like 2 AH64 had a fatal accident in their 'game changer' charge into the kosovo war during a familiarization mission and the entire unit withdrew from the field, tails between legs, with not a single combat sortie flown.

each of the EU munnas could potentially contribute about 1 brigade each to a combined grand armee of europe(france maybe 1 division), dutch have retired all their tanks btw...how to co-ordinate this zoo of small units would be a headache for the commander.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 03 Sep 2014 17:30

Col Wu would be proud of NATO standards -

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2014 18:06

JMOUST - Joint MOU for screwing up things - all highly compatible and x-trained saar. its no surprise amrika prefers to tell EU to clear some air corridors for its own forces and stay out of the fight, when its time to fight. its no surprise amrika has a tired look on its face when attempting to keep the sham of a joint nato military tasking.

france can contribute about 5% of the throw-weight. amrika does 90%. the rest together struggle to put in the token 5% to get the ' I wuz there' t-shirt and post-race breakfast

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 03 Sep 2014 19:51

France is not part of NATO. Most of the time French interests are same as those of NATO (specially when Middle Eastern countries are concerned). French think they are thekedar of that area.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 03 Sep 2014 20:33

Deans wrote: Putin agreed that there ought to be a ceasefire, but that Ukraine should discuss that with the separatists, since Russia is not a party to the conflict.

Putin delivered a balanced message for the 'Piss Talks'.

Why should the Russians negotiate a peace when they have nothing to do with whatever is happening.

Putin is begining to think like .... Why legitimize a friggin allegation.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Sep 2014 21:35

To "Cease fire or not to cease fire",that is the Q that everyone is asking the Chocolate soldier about his unilateral statement,which thus far has not been confirmed by the Russians.Putin has reportedly said that a deal will be reached by Friday.From his eagerness to get first off the block,the Choco soldier appears to have blinked after facing the truth of the situ.

http://rt.com/news/184791-putin-ukraine-kiev-militia/
Ukraine ceasefire: Putin lays out 7-step plan to stop hostilities in E. Ukraine
Published time: September 03, 2014

Kiev must withdraw troops from southeastern regions of Ukraine and rebels must stop offensive to stop bloodshed, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin says. He and Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko discussed "a ceasefire regime."

READ MORE: Kiev retracts 'permanent' ceasefire statement, says steps for establishing peace agreed

President Putin has outlined a seven-point plan to stabilize the situation in the crisis-torn east of Ukraine.

“On my way here from [the city of] Blagoveschensk to Ulan-Bator [Mongolia], I outlined some ideas and plan of actions. It’s here, but in handwriting,” Putin told reporters.

1. Militias should cease military advances in the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions.

2. Pro-Kiev armed forces should withdraw to a distance that excludes the possibility of shelling settlements.

3. Implement full and objective international control over ceasefire observation and monitoring.

4. Exclude the use of combat aircraft against civilians and villages.

5. Prisoner/captive-exchange via an ‘all-in-all’ formula, without preconditions.

6. Humanitarian corridors for refugees movement and delivery of humanitarian aid across Donetsk and Lugansk Regions.

7. Direct repair-crew access to destroyed social and transit infrastructure with supportive aid.

Putin expressed hope that final agreements between Kiev and militia in southeastern Ukraine could be reached and secured at the coming meeting of the so-called contact group on September 5.

“I hope the leaders of Ukraine will support the anticipated progress in bilateral relations,” Russia’s president said.

He called on Ukraine to take an active part in the work of the contact group “for a final and comprehensive settlement of the situation in the southeastern Ukraine, of course, with full and unconditional assurance of the legitimate rights of the people who live there.”

Commenting on the phone call with the Ukrainian president earlier on Wednesday, Putin stressed that their “views on ways to resolve the conflict are aligned.”

So far, attempts at temporary ceasefires between Kiev and self-defense forces in the past months have failed to bring about any improvement in the situation in southeastern Ukraine. Each time fighting has continued, with both sides blaming each other for breaking the truce.

2,593 people have died in fighting in eastern Ukraine since mid-April, the UN reported last week.

The military conflict that started this spring has displaced over a million Ukrainians, with the majority of them finding refuge in Russia.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 03 Sep 2014 22:30

Kati wrote:The scene of a smashed UKR tank with its top blown off is quite telling.
Wonder what kind of superior fire power the rebels applied to cause such a devastation.
That sight (and description of a tank crew's mangled body hanging from electric cables)
might send a chill down the spine of all UKR conscripts.

I read its because the the main Ukrainian tank, the T-64, is an uber tin can. Apparently because of the way the ammo is stored it cooks-off even more easily than a T-72.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 Sep 2014 23:09

“On my way here from [the city of] Blagoveschensk to Ulan-Bator [Mongolia], I outlined some ideas and plan of actions. It’s here, but in handwriting,” Putin told reporters.

Where all great minds attain Realization..

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 04 Sep 2014 00:19

France has surrendered.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 04 Sep 2014 00:23

The Ukr. conflict is a lesson in indirect fire management. It is nearly all MLRS and artillary duels. Very little ATGM. Hit by a grad or smerch no merkava, abrams, arjun or type 99 will look any different. I suspect this will change a few things in future conflicts. Anything standing still will receive an area cleaning detergent.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 04 Sep 2014 05:47

KLNMurthy wrote: Thanks, these are new insights for me. To put it in our terms, then, the Russian ethnic nationalists are the equivalent of pakis, more or less(are they Yeltsinists or Gary Kasparovists?),

Yelstin was a drunken lout, but a lot of his advisors were either ethnic nationalists or liberals (it is funny how these two can get along very well). I was never able to make out any ideology in Yelstin.

while the Putinists are (again more or less) equivalent to good ol' Yindu Nationalists, or even global Indics (the trans-slavic unity wallahs).

Many have accused Putin of wanting to re-create the old SU, but again, it is not very likely. I don't think he wants the Baltic states, or any of the Central Asian republics back inside SU, and would refuse integration even if offered - he just wants to influence them enough that they are not hostile to Russian interests. Of course, the Balts, the Poles and the Ukraineans have their own history of being suppressed brutally, first by the Tsars, and then by the SU, so they are also fighting their own demons. Putin might want back genuinely sympathetic Russian dominated areas back inside Russia, but he has shown no signs of wanting Slavic unity. Not many Russians are that starry eyed today.

It would suit the West to work for the victory of the paki-Russians, then.

Nice to see patterns and formulas emerging. We can see if the West's strategy and tactics in the Russian theater (as it were) will help understand and predict the same for the Indic theater.

This is a given. Trouble in the north east or Kashmir is what I predict will be West's next step, once they see Modi is no poodle.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 04 Sep 2014 08:24

Shreeman wrote:The Ukr. conflict is a lesson in indirect fire management. It is nearly all MLRS and artillary duels. Very little ATGM. Hit by a grad or smerch no merkava, abrams, arjun or type 99 will look any different. I suspect this will change a few things in future conflicts. Anything standing still will receive an area cleaning detergent.

Its a lot more difficult for the Russians to have indirect fire, as there are a lot of (Russian) civilians in the places the separatist forces
would have liked to fire on.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Sep 2014 09:42

Franxe surrenders to the Yanqui diktat.Cheese-eating surrrender monkeys like M.'ollande!
France says it cannot deliver Mistral warship to Russia over Ukraine
Published time: September 03, 2014

France has suspended delivery of the first of two Mistral helicopter carrier ships to Russia, due to events in eastern Ukraine.

“The situation is serious. Russia’s recent actions in the east of Ukraine contravene the fundamental principles of European security,” said a statement from the office of President Francois Hollande.

"The president of the Republic has concluded that despite the prospect of ceasefire, which has yet to be confirmed and put in place, the conditions under which France could authorise the delivery of the first helicopter carrier are not in place."

The office informed AFP that the suspension would be next reviewed before November.

"Legally, nothing has changed and the contract is still in force, and the first vessel is still due for delivery on November 1. But a political decision has been taken. The President is saying that if nothing changes, he cannot allow the delivery to go through," one of Hollande's representatives told Russia's RIA news agency.

As the rift over Ukraine has widened, Russian officials have repeatedly said that they would accept the French government’s failure to deliver the ships, as long as it paid the penalty for breaking the contract, which, could potentially exceed the cost of the ships themselves.

"This is not a tragedy, though of course the news is unpleasant. It will not affect our armament plans. We will act in accordance with international laws and the statutes of the contract," said Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov, in a statement.

The two ships were commissioned by Russia in 2011 at a cost of $1.6 billion. The first of these, the Vladivostok, was due to come into service at the end of this year, with the second, the Sevastopol, due to be completed in 2015.

France’s suspension does not fall under the sectoral sanctions the EU and the US imposed upon Russia for purported meddling in the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, introduced last month. That raft of sanctions did not cover deals signed before their imposition.

But it could be covered under new sanctions sanctions the EU is expected to introduce this week, which may earn France a temporary reprieve from compensation under the terms of the contract.

While Moscow officials earlier admitted that in terms of efficiency and versatility the cutting-edge Mistral has no equivalent in the Russian Navy, the deal was always considered controversial, as France was a Cold War adversary, and is a founding member of NATO.

Indeed, there had been speculation of NATO taking over the Mistral order from Russia, following a proposal from a group of US congressmen back in May. Earlier this week, the Alliance chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen did not rule out the possibility, but said that it “remains a national decision, not for NATO to interfere.” In the aftermath of the announcement from Hollande, NATO maintained that it wasn't forcing France to suspend the sale.

Previously US President Barack Obama said France should “press the pause button” on the deal, while fighting in Ukraine is in progress.

Previously, French officials resisted, citing concerns over reputational damage, and saying that the financial penalties might hurt Paris more than Moscow. Even if France does now decide to sell the ships to someone else, it will have to refit them, as every aspect, from the helicopter pads to hull alloys is custom-made to Russian specifications.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Sep 2014 09:44

Anatol Lieven, on a way out:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/04/opini ... oscow.html

The progress of the conflict in eastern Ukraine is utterly predictable. Since the rebellion began with Russian backing five months ago, it’s been obvious that the Kremlin would not allow the rebels to be crushed by force. So deeply is President Vladimir Putin’s prestige invested in his Ukrainian strategy, and in the image of Russian strength, that to allow a Ukrainian military victory would threaten the stability and even the existence of his own regime.

...

For even if the West were to provide Kiev with enough military aid to give a real chance of crushing the rebels, this would also create a real chance of a full-scale Russian invasion. Such an invasion could only be stopped by the introduction of a Western army — something which is simply not a possibility. A Russian invasion would be a disaster for both Ukraine and Russia — and a disastrous humiliation for NATO and the West.

The toughness of Russia’s stance does not stem from Mr. Putin’s calculations alone. It is also due to the fact that a great many ordinary Russians, including those who are basically pro-Western and anti-Putin, regard American support for the overthrow of a democratically elected (albeit repulsive) government in Kiev last winter as utterly outrageous and a threat to vital Russian interests. Mr. Putin’s popularity soared as a result of his stance on Ukraine, and it shows no sign of declining. As Thomas Graham of Kissinger Associates has written, Russia cares about what happens in Ukraine much more than the West does — for reasons which should be apparent to anyone who has spent 10 minutes studying Russian and Ukrainian history.

At the same time, the Kremlin remains relatively cautious — were it not so, the Russian Army would be in Kharkov and Odessa by now. Moscow did nothing after the crackdown on pro-Russian demonstrators elsewhere in eastern and southern Ukraine (including the killing of more than 40 in Odessa) and accepted control of those areas by Kiev.

Moscow also accepted as legitimate the election of Petro Poroshenko as president, abandoning its support for former President Viktor Yanukovych. It should be recognized therefore that in seeking de jure control of Crimea and decisive informal influence over the Donbass region, the Kremlin has drastically scaled back its hopes from where they stood a year ago, when Moscow wanted to bring the whole of Ukraine into a Russian-dominated bloc, and even from its initial response to the revolt in Kiev. This allows the possibility of a political solution, which can only consist of a special autonomous status for the Donbass region within Ukraine.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2014 10:00

the Ukr truce could be a way for Kiev to stem the tide of latest reverses and keep its powder dry for another round later.
meantime the new sanctions will russia will happen anyway.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 04 Sep 2014 10:01

France not agreeing to abide by the agreement in the first place probably damaged Dassault's chances of a getting a deal signed by GoI. MoD & GoI bought french weapons under the impression that France wouldn't bow down to int'l pressure and impose sanctions. That thinking just went out of the window.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Sep 2014 10:10

strategic weapons must always be either home-made or of Russian origin or collaboration, there is no guarantee that western systems won't just blow out of the sky on self-destruct mode.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 04 Sep 2014 11:03

Hitesh wrote:France not agreeing to abide by the agreement in the first place probably damaged Dassault's chances of a getting a deal signed by GoI. MoD & GoI bought french weapons under the impression that France wouldn't bow down to int'l pressure and impose sanctions. That thinking just went out of the window.

In a case where vital French interests are not threatened, France not abiding by their agreement is a huge red sign for the Rafale. GoI has to be ultra cautious now, perhaps even cancel the deal.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 04 Sep 2014 11:13

merlin wrote:
Hitesh wrote:France not agreeing to abide by the agreement in the first place probably damaged Dassault's chances of a getting a deal signed by GoI. MoD & GoI bought french weapons under the impression that France wouldn't bow down to int'l pressure and impose sanctions. That thinking just went out of the window.
In a case where vital French interests are not threatened, France not abiding by their agreement is a huge red sign for the Rafale. GoI has to be ultra cautious now, perhaps even cancel the deal.

French interests are tied to NATO interests (in this case). Imagine the French delivering two Mistrals and in a few months see an amphibious assault on Odessa. It is a much more relevant weapon for the current conflict area than an SLBM.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2014 11:19

france will do gubo when its friends are in danger. like it passed on data on exocet missile to UK in the falklands war - clearly another area where its vital interests were not at stake.

for the domestic gallery they like to play a little truant, but ever since sarkozy days they are plenty more pro-american than say germany or japan. they led the kosovo war from european side, they got involved in chad/mali, they led the euro attack on libya from day1, they are keen to attack assad ....

the consider the Med and black sea area as their jaedaad.

odessa if you see my link above has a very french coastal look and feel to it, and a french noble richelieu was indeed its governor for some time.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Sep 2014 11:35

france is a rothschild colony and is a puppet just like UK, Italy and others. There will be nothing independent about french policy at least in future.

Russia should now actively train Indian & Chinese OEM's to help in mass manufacture of vital components and scale up production of armaments and naval vessels and form a common defence bloc. Quantity is also important as quality when fighting against NATO backed wars. All future wars shall be initiated by same set of players and led by USA.

We are already in WW3 and no more pussy-footing is allowed.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Sep 2014 12:46

I agree.The attitude of the US and Euro-Peons is utterly incomprehensible.yesterday there was such a one-sided "special" on Ukraine by the BBC,that was simply nauseating.The "Beeb" got as talking heads a young pretty UKR bimbo MP,an ex-Russian PM,and Shaky-villi from Georgia to comment upon the UKR situ.All expectedly condemned Russia and it was hilarious when the bimbo said that everyone in the east supported the UKR govt.! The Georgian was shrieking and ranting.There was no objective discussion at all.The e tire "special" was meant to tar Putin as another Hitler and drum up the propaganda campaign against Russia ignoring the actual facts on the ground and the history of the region.The timing of this "special" was meant to happen during the NATO summit in Wales,where the delegates are to be entertained with a lavish dinner at the taxpayer's expense while all over the world millions are displaced and thousands are dying every day.So much for that discredited and derelict entity called NATO.

PS:There is also no way that you can make a complaint to the BBC .It's a maze wandering through its website where you ultimately find no avenue to express your displeasure at its biased reporting!

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 04 Sep 2014 12:50

Singha wrote:france will do gubo when its friends are in danger. like it passed on data on exocet missile to UK in the falklands war - clearly another area where its vital interests were not at stake.

for the domestic gallery they like to play a little truant, but ever since sarkozy days they are plenty more pro-american than say germany or japan. they led the kosovo war from european side, they got involved in chad/mali, they led the euro attack on libya from day1, they are keen to attack assad ....

You make an important point. In a future Indo-Pak war, the French may well be concerned about a possible backlash from their
North African, or West African Muslim population (which is volatile at the best of times), or may simply GUBO under pressure from Unkil and renege on weapons supply.

The biggest (indirect) french import to India is actually the Airbus 320. indigo and Go Air alone will have 240 A320 Neo aircraft delivered by 2021. Including discounts on the list price, the value is US$ 7.7 Billion Add to that the cost of spares etc and it becomes a huge bargaining chip if India decides (like China) that GOI will clear all aircraft purchases made by any of its airlines.