Bharat Rakshak

sum wrote:

Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.

Simple glance of K'taka in the last yr with JD(S)-INC should be enough where the ideologies were not even as different as in this case where they seem diametric to each other.

Thankfully, MH don't have Gowda parivaar or Siddu. Pawar bhau is too sophisticated for such crass games while Congress will not get much of say in MH.

My 2 cents are this govt if formed will survive for more than 2-3 years.

greatde wrote:

pankajs wrote:Hindutva-vadis will NOT accept SS diluting on hindutva to just for the sake of being in power and will migrate to BJP. It must be obvious by now that there are Hindus who vote NCP+CON but there are NO Hindutva-vadis who vote for NCP+CON.

If that was the case, then why are SS leaders joining hands with NCP+Con in the first place? Its not a simple black & white picture. There are many factors including personal interests. If what you said is true, there should be huge internal rebellion right now within SS. But its arent happening.

Right now, BJP is only gaining a moral high ground but that means nothing if you are not in power.

You are right. We lay too much emphasis on ideology. Unless something major happens or there is a wave, most of the voters will stick to whomsoever they vote with a 3%-4%. swing making the difference.
SS will not see any rebellion as they are too close to power now. Who doesn't want to get onto a grave train.
BJP maybe on a high moral ground but will that translate into votes next time is a million Yen question. Thankfully BJP is not dependent upon any ally for NM govt's stability.

In all this what happens to BMC - will BJP take support back from SS there ?

greatde wrote:If what you said is true, there should be huge internal rebellion right now within SS. But its arent happening.

What would SS MLAs gain by revolting. They want power and they'll get it either way.

Going by what Maharashtra-based rakshaks here have pointed out, SS leaders may not actually be perturbed about any backlash at the ground level from their constituents. Of course, some BJP supporters who may have voted for SS may be a tad miffed, but SS voters probably will not care much.

greatde wrote:

pankajs wrote:Hindutva-vadis will NOT accept SS diluting on hindutva to just for the sake of being in power and will migrate to BJP. It must be obvious by now that there are Hindus who vote NCP+CON but there are NO Hindutva-vadis who vote for NCP+CON.

If that was the case, then why are SS leaders joining hands with NCP+Con in the first place? Its not a simple black & white picture. There are many factors including personal interests. If what you said is true, there should be huge internal rebellion right now within SS. But its arent happening.

Right now, BJP is only gaining a moral high ground but that means nothing if you are not in power.

There are Marathi manoos and Hindutva-vadis who vote SS. Marathi manoos vote is not going anywhere only the Hindutva-vadis votes that will migrate. Now if that vote is 1% or 50% of SS voter base, I don't know.

The answer to your question is simple!

1. What does the last could of election cycle tell us? Specifically, 2014 and 2019 MH results? That the BJP is growing at the cost of SS! BJP has become the de-facto party of Hindutva-vadis.

2. RJB verdict will further add to the Hindutva credentials of the BJP. Will it add to the Hindutva credentials of SS? Will the SS claim credit in alliance with CON+NCP which have the exact opposite ideology? The RJB verdict will only increase the BJP's attraction to for the Hindutva-vadis base of SS.

3. SS joins hands with CON+NCP will have to dilute its ideological commitment to Hindutva. There are no if and buts. IT WILL HAPPEN. That will only accelerate the migration of Hindutva-vadis from the SS to BJP.

4. I would further suggest that BJP took this step of walking away from government formation under the glow of the RJB verdict. The verdict allows them to present themselves as at the forefront of Hindutva in contrast to SS which is willing to work with anti-Hindutva forces for power. Also allows them to claim of being principled vs the unprincipled SS.

IIRC, it was Raut of SS who stated "Abhi nahin to kabhi nahin". He understood the imperative. He should be able to clear all your doubts.

a. Lust for power / Putra moha. A very human fault.
b. Slow but steady erosion of its Hindutva base. Unable to match the BJP on this count.
c. Ego .. unable to digest that when junior partner overtakes you. A very human fault.

As for "Internal rebellion" how do you know? Is the game over yet or are we in the beginning of the innings? Have patience.

BJP's moral high-ground will translate to higher political ground when the next election happens. That is why the BJP has rolled the dice on this one.

Vikas wrote:

pankajs wrote: Simple .. will SS celebrate the Ram temple court victory or not? Will they participate in the building of the Ram temple of not?

pankajs, SS will play on both sides of the divide now. They will suddenly go on mute about Hindutva except for few articles in Samana. Don't forget the Cong/NCP need SS as much as they need them. So both sides will take Janta as a fool for next few years.

He he ... As I asked before ... What if BJP decides to honor the MH martyrs of RJB in Mumbai and invites UT/AT. Will they accept and be seen to be honoring the folks who brought down the Babri structure?

BJP can keep asking questions like that. IF the CON/NCP needs the SS then let SS fully claim the glories of RJB movement! Will be fun watching the entertainment.

Added Later: From now till the time the RJB Ram Mandir is completed, about 6-7 years, there will be so many opportunities to test SS commitment to Hindutva that is it insane to think UT/AT can keep mum and get away with it.

UT/AT can openly support Ram Temple too. Only it will irritate the sickular voters of NCP/CON. I would suggest BJP offer a seat on the RJB trust to be formed to UT as an acknowledgement for his contribution to RJB movement. Wouldn't that be right neighborly of BJP!

Now all my analysis ONLY focuses on Hindutva vote of SS and not the Marathi manoos vote.

Whatever is happening on ground in Maharashtra is really unfortunate and unacceptable but realistically speaking, the BJP simply didn't have the heft to win Maharashtra on it's own, neither the last time nor had it this time round despite having Modi wave to ride on both these occasions. As I'd said before in 2014 there was a division of votes but still it couldn't. And this time the congies fought together so it was bound to be a close fight. And AS knew it.
The situation is going to be the same in future also, and will unfold exactly the way it did in Bihar state elections if Cong, NCP and SS stick together in the next elections too.
And the most ironical part of it is that
it will not be a surprise if BJP wants to form alliance again with SS at a later date exactly like they they have done with Nitish. Many had written obituary of Nitish long back and are doing the same for SS. But it's highly unlikely that the SS would fade away. Many are drawing anology with fate of CBN but its also notable to see what the status BJP has in Andhra after break up with him. It's a wishful thinking that all nationalistic hindutwawadi voters will desert SS and come to BJP.
It's going to be a long winter for BJP in Maharashtra, really a very very long one, once again.

RajD wrote:Whatever is happening on ground in Maharashtra is really unfortunate and unacceptable but realistically speaking, the BJP simply didn't have the heft to win Maharashtra on it's own, neither the last time nor had it this time round despite having Modi wave to ride on both these occasions. As I'd said before in 2014 there was a division of votes but still it couldn't. And this time the congies fought together so it was bound to be a close fight. And AS knew it.
The situation is going to be the same in future also, and will unfold exactly the way it did in Bihar state elections if Cong, NCP and SS stick together in the next elections too.
And the most ironical part of it is that
it will not be a surprise if BJP wants to form alliance again with SS at a later date exactly like they they have done with Nitish. Many had written obituary of Nitish long back and are doing the same for SS. But it's highly unlikely that the SS would fade away. Many are drawing anology with fate of CBN but its also notable to see what the status BJP has in Andhra after break up with him. It's a wishful thinking that all nationalistic hindutwawadi voters will desert SS and come to BJP.
It's going to be a long winter for BJP in Maharashtra, really a very very long one, once again.

Everyone has an opinion and it is their right ...

Hindutwawadi voters will ditch SS for BJP BUT not the Marathi manoos voter. The Hindutwawadi voters may not be enough to trouble SS. Anyone one votes for SS after it aligns with CON, which fought tooth and nail to prevent RJB resolution in favor of Hindus, is NOT Hindutwawadi but an ordinary Hindu whose prime concern is his/her secular needs and that is Ok too. That is not to say that they are not proud Hindus, an overwhelming percentage are.

A CON pasand BJP hating "journo"
https://twitter.com/sumanthraman/status ... 0704025600

Sumanth Raman @sumanthraman

This is not bcos they couldn't break the Sena.They didn't even seem to attempt it. Something is going on. BJP possibly sees an opportunity to cannibalize Sena vote and by showing SS as opportunistic by aligning with INC-NCP they may be thinking longer term.

1. Opportunistic and untrustworthy.
2. Compromised on Hindutva

I don't think PK is a Modi/BJP's secret weapon but an opportunist.
https://twitter.com/ajitdatta/status/11 ... 4863426570

PK will go down as the man who buried JDU and SS, making BJP the primary player in 2 important states. This is after helping PM Modi win in 2014. And serving as the opposition's campaign manager in UP (2017) when BJP got 325+. Don't tell me he wants to take Modi down

RajD wrote:Whatever is happening on ground in Maharashtra is really unfortunate and unacceptable but realistically speaking, the BJP simply didn't have the heft to win Maharashtra on it's own, neither the last time nor had it this time round despite having Modi wave to ride on both these occasions. As I'd said before in 2014 there was a division of votes but still it couldn't. And this time the congies fought together so it was bound to be a close fight. And AS knew it.
The situation is going to be the same in future also, and will unfold exactly the way it did in Bihar state elections if Cong, NCP and SS stick together in the next elections too.
And the most ironical part of it is that
it will not be a surprise if BJP wants to form alliance again with SS at a later date exactly like they they have done with Nitish. Many had written obituary of Nitish long back and are doing the same for SS. But it's highly unlikely that the SS would fade away. Many are drawing anology with fate of CBN but its also notable to see what the status BJP has in Andhra after break up with him. It's a wishful thinking that all nationalistic hindutwawadi voters will desert SS and come to BJP.
It's going to be a long winter for BJP in Maharashtra, really a very very long one, once again.

Probably true. And given how important a state Maharashtra is, not good.
Also to be noted is what will happen in case riots etc happen. Usually the first thing Congress/NCP etc do is castrate the state police in way which completely gives the peacefools the reign. This will inevitably lead to some riots and then what will Shivsena do, given that they are usually the foot soldiers of Hindutva. Will it let peacefool reign over them?

If what Raj sir has written is true then it's unfortunate that alliance has broken. How much one man's greed to crown his son will cost 100 million people is yet to be seen. I have many issues with DF, wife's EJ visits and other singing flings, shani shignapur etc. But from what I read, he was not corrupt and got things done.

JDU despite being in NDA, keeps a “strategic silence” or does some nautanki on many key/hot topics. SS is a no different case ,and the talks about SS is trapped is wishful thinking...

And right now for BJP, it’s immediate concern has to keep its own MLAs united. Power and greed attracts many...

greatde wrote:JDU despite being in NDA, keeps a “strategic silence” or does some nautanki on many key/hot topics. SS is a no different case ,and the talks about SS is trapped is wishful thinking...

And right now for BJP, it’s immediate concern has to keep its own MLAs united. Power and greed attracts many...

Man, JDU was always a sickular party very aware and aligned with sentiments of Muslims. The right question is why BJP did not get hurt by aligning with a Sickular party.

SS was openly Hindutva, infact going faaaaaaar to the right of BJP at times. Was more Kattar than kattar BJP for CON/Muslims and Liberals of India.

You can be a SS supporter but don't attempt such logical gymnastics that can be proven wrong in seconds on just facts and news clippings without even going into logic and argument.

The last line/highlight is pure Gold. Nothing gives you sentiment away like it.

pankajs wrote:

greatde wrote:JDU despite being in NDA, keeps a “strategic silence” or does some nautanki on many key/hot topics. SS is a no different case ,and the talks about SS is trapped is wishful thinking...

And right now for BJP, it’s immediate concern has to keep its own MLAs united. Power and greed attracts many...

Man JDU was always a sickular party. The right question is why BJP did not get hurt by aligning with a Sickular party.

SS was openly Hindutva, infact going faaaaaaar to the right of BJP at times. Was more Kattar than kattar BJP.

You can be a SS supporter but don't attempt such logical gymnastics that can be proven wrong in seconds on just facts and news clippings.

There are many Hindutva / RSS people who have switched sides and been accepted as long as BJP is stopped.... So this is not a new thing..

You are presenting the best case scenario for BJP, but its not so straight forward, and we ought to be practical about other scenarios...

nits wrote:In all this what happens to BMC - will BJP take support back from SS there ?

They should. Snap all ties.

vimal wrote: Really?? Thacakrey of SS was picked out of nowhere by Congress to defeat Communists. They end where they started from. The whole Hindu thing is a facade and junk politics.

1960s India is very different from 1990s India. So is SS. Anyway, no point in discussing over spoilt milk.

pankajs wrote: Very short lived happiness.
Tell us who will compromise? SS on its hindutva or CON on its sickular policy? Or maybe both can stick to hindutva and sickularism both at the same time. Will be an interesting experiment to watch. First hint will come with the common minimum program document.
As far I can see, it is win win for BJP and loose loose for SS and CON. SS hindutva vote will migrate to BJP while CON's sickular vote will migrate to NCP.

SS already compromised with the alliance. We don't have to cling to the past. NCP gains most from this. BJP might gain in later phase. maybe after UP elections(?). Politics are not arithmetic. Have to see how this will turn out in future.

Meanwhile any update on Jharkhand elections ?

greatde wrote:

pankajs wrote:

Man JDU was always a sickular party. The right question is why BJP did not get hurt by aligning with a Sickular party.

SS was openly Hindutva, infact going faaaaaaar to the right of BJP at times. Was more Kattar than kattar BJP.

You can be a SS supporter but don't attempt such logical gymnastics that can be proven wrong in seconds on just facts and news clippings.

There are many Hindutva / RSS people who have switched sides and been accepted as long as BJP is stopped.... So this is not a new thing..

You are presenting the best case scenario for BJP, but its not so straight forward, and we ought to be practical about other scenarios...

I am sure you know from personal experience and I to have read a few confessions on twitter but very few. Attrition is the name of the game. However the key question is, Has BJP gained or lost overall All-India and in MH? The answer, sadly from your POV, is that BJP has gained. I am not sure of MH but in GE2019 Modi/BJP upped their vote share between 6-9%. That is proof enough for me that BJP's strategy is working AND it did its magic BEFORE BJP got to implement its core agenda!

Hindus are practical and focused on day to day, Hindutva-vadi not so much. That is the reason why Marathi manoos (Hindus) will not ditch SS while Hindutva-vadis will. Depending on how many SS supporters are Hindutva-vadi that many BJP will gain, Now that SS will move from far-right of BJP to the far-left of BJP. Simple.

Does Swarajya have it right?

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/sena-h ... -wont-last

And

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/if-mah ... gest-loser

syam wrote:

vimal wrote: Really?? Thacakrey of SS was picked out of nowhere by Congress to defeat Communists. They end where they started from. The whole Hindu thing is a facade and junk politics.

1960s India is very different from 1990s India. So is SS. Anyway, no point in discussing over spoilt milk.

pankajs wrote: Very short lived happiness.
Tell us who will compromise? SS on its hindutva or CON on its sickular policy? Or maybe both can stick to hindutva and sickularism both at the same time. Will be an interesting experiment to watch. First hint will come with the common minimum program document.
As far I can see, it is win win for BJP and loose loose for SS and CON. SS hindutva vote will migrate to BJP while CON's sickular vote will migrate to NCP.

SS already compromised with the alliance. We don't have to cling to the past. NCP gains most from this. BJP might gain in later phase. maybe after UP elections(?). Politics are not arithmetic. Have to see how this will turn out in future.

Not yet. The process has just started. Let the common minimum program be released to understand what kind of compromise has been made.

No one has to cling to the past. SS is moving from the right of BJP to the left of BJP. That will have consequences in that voters that stuck to it for that very reason will move to the next best place and that will now be BJP. How will BJP gain? Depends on the how many voted SS just for its being on the right of BJP.

Re Jharkhand Elections
Will SS campaign with NCP+Cong against BJP
They will have to shake hands with SP/BSP/RJD/Commies
interesting times ahead
There is a video of Balasaheb circulating on teetar never to join hands with Pawar
Will that come in handy to break SS in few weeks/months
Can Raj be trusted with inducements to head the new breakaway faction of SS+MNS??

I am not sure, but is there any precedence for this scenario where an alliance was formed before election and then a partner broke away to form gov with aother party?

If not, then guv should have dissolved the assemble and called for fresh election citing immoral post election-alliance.

Let SS+NCP+Cong form alliance and fight fresh election. If BJP loses then be it. But at least mandate will be clear.

abhijitm wrote:I am not sure, but is there any precedence for this scenario where an alliance was formed before election and then a partner broke away to form gov with aother party?

If not, then guv should have dissolved the assemble and called for fresh election citing immoral post election-alliance.

Why prevent SS form committing hara-kari is what BJP thinks. BJP is giving SS the long-rope especially when BJP has delivered on one key Hindutva plank.

Some are saying chest pains.

Safe to assume the middle path and say that the pain is between the leg and the head

what sort of leg pain requires three days of hospital admission


twitter

Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut admitted to Lilavati hospital due to complain of leg pain. He will undergo treatment here for the next three days.
http://zeenews.india.com/india/live-upd ... ss-2245385 …

It looks like the doctors have already assembled to handle the medical emergency

given the gravity of the situation, they may operate even without anesthesia.

pankajs wrote: Not yet. The process has just started. Let the common minimum program be released to understand what kind of compromise has been made.

Isn't it wonderful? ss is best example to understand the role of ideology in politics. pawar is really good politician.

Beyond current drama, which bjp is playing well without blinking, MH politics is at a crossroad. With family led political parties (namely SS and NCP) nearing the expiration date, 2nd generation is busy keeping the status quo and the 3rd guaranteed to destroy it (like dear Pappu). Sharad Power is 78 years old, which means that next election related calling shots will be from the nursing home. With, Bal Thackery then UT and AT, it is slowly moving towards irrelevance. Bjp has nice shot at establishing strong institutional framework for strong leadership for the benefit of the state and future BJP pm.

Wonder how an [un] holy alliance between the SS Congress and NCP can last though, i think this could well be the beginning of the end for SS.

chetak wrote:Some are saying chest pains.

Safe to assume the middle path and say that the pain is between the leg and the head

what sort of leg pain requires three days of hospital admission


twitter

Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut admitted to Lilavati hospital due to complain of leg pain. He will undergo treatment here for the next three days.
http://zeenews.india.com/india/live-upd ... ss-2245385 …

It looks like the doctors have already assembled to handle the medical emergency

given the gravity of the situation, they may operate even without anesthesia.

maybe a deep vein thrombosis in the leg and a pulmonary embolism in the lungs (chest pain), quite treatable i think if detected early.

Governor rejects SS demand to give them 3 days to form Government; now he invites NCP to form gov...

Things are changing at a fast pace... Power games going on in full swing

The NCP insisted that a "senior" SS leader should become the CM.

It's very possible that some guy with leg pain may have pitched himself as that senior SS leader to the NCP and "suggested" that he be named as the preferred senior leader to the SS leadership by pawarful people

the son was immediately replaced by the father as the CM candidate.

was raut then rauted.

kit wrote:

chetak wrote:Some are saying chest pains.

Safe to assume the middle path and say that the pain is between the leg and the head

what sort of leg pain requires three days of hospital admission


twitter




It looks like the doctors have already assembled to handle the medical emergency

given the gravity of the situation, they may operate even without anesthesia.

maybe a deep vein thrombosis in the leg and a pulmonary embolism in the lungs (chest pain), quite treatable i think if detected early.

sirji, what happens if the pain is in the gluteus maximus

chetak wrote:The NCP insisted that a "senior" SS leader should become the CM.

It's very possible that some guy with leg pain may have pitched himself as that senior SS leader to the NCP and "suggested" that he be named as the preferred senior leader to the SS leadership by pawarful people

the son was immediately replaced by the father as the CM candidate.

was raut then rauted.

Name of Eknath Shinde is doing the rounds; with gov not lasting its full term - for UT also it make sense to have remote control

No govt yet. Seems Congress has not officially provided support yet.

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/ma ... 81397.html
Poetic justice
Wily Maratha fox has done it again
SS will have to wait for another 20 years

So SS which wanted written agreement with BJP on power-sharing, yet didn't ask the same with NCP-Con. They got fooled but it's not over, so let's see what happens tomorrow.

So NCP successfully broke 30 years alliance, that too pre-poll alliance, and then gamed SS. Bravo.

I wonder if push comes to shove BJP has decided to support NCP, otherwise calling them to form gov makes no sense when publicly there was no intention from NCP. If that happens - really low probability, but if if - then SP has to be considered the greatest political strategist of all time.

<facepalm>

https://twitter.com/NadeemNusrath1/stat ... 2943873024

Nadeem Nusrath @NadeemNusrath1

Quitting NDA isn't Enough. Sena has to quit Hindutwa Agenda & Accept Secularism As The Way of Life. Then ONLY Congress should consider its request to consider its proposal, if any.

I want CON to get SS to publicly declare it sickular credentials. That way the only Maharathi standing on the Hindutva side will be BJP and it will enjoy all the after glow of Ram Temple, etc.

How thoughtful of CON to get the field vacated for BJP to lord over.

SS couldn't make it in time to meet the governor's deadline. They did not have support letters from either the NCP or the congress.

they have been booted out of the race.

pawar and sonia have gamed the greedy SS and left them stranded in the dirt after making them quit the NDA while the BJP silently watched the farce playing out.

now there are strong rumors that in case of a trust vote the BJP will abstain. So no one needs the SS anymore.

any fool would have got the support letters first before setting fire to a three decades old bridge. This was their predetermined fate if they trusted a low IQ moron and a gas bag like sanjay raut to run point.

the SS's shoe size and IQ levels are both the same single dight number

the Governor has now called the NCP to form the govt.

this was the news at around 2020hrs or so.

ajit pawar was claiming in some press conference that he did not know why the NCP was being called by the gov.

abhijitm wrote:So NCP successfully broke 30 years alliance, that too pre-poll alliance, and then gamed SS. Bravo.

I wonder if push comes to shove BJP has decided to support NCP, otherwise calling them to form gov makes no sense when publicly there was no intention from NCP. If that happens - really low probability, but if if - then SP has to be considered the greatest political strategist of all time.

<facepalm>

I think this is a joint BJP/NCP project to clear the field for the two by decimating the other two. Get CON and SS into an unnatural alliance which ends up benefiting BJP/NCP. Game over.