West Asia News and Discussions

[Singha]

Lal comrade, I guess the poorer people who face harsh conditions there are aware of reality and keep no illusions. its the rich 'Ashraf' type IMs who have this whole arab thing going on and like to boast loudly about the infra and stuff there. many have done stints in white collar or business jobs there or run some Exim business with gulf from here.

most of the rich and educated IMs I have come across seem to have spent some stint working in gulf , somewhat like every itvity munna has worked in the US/Uk atleast for some time.

[Lalmohan]

fair observation mein kolonel
i think paquis go the next step up and pretend that dubai is really an extension of their benis...er i mean of isloo...
i can share with you over zam zam cola the choice words my IM contacts there used, and even one mango paqui abdul i met...

[RamaY]

^ +1

That is why, economic progression of IM's will not reduce their attraction towards the desert lands. It in fact increases their affiliation.

Story of the moral - Do not blindly focus on economic progress for IMs. Create avenues for them to develop Indic roots.

[Ameet]

Saudi king back home, orders $37 billion in handouts

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/ ... ational%29

Saudi King Abdullah returned home on Wednesday after a three-month medical absence and unveiled benefits for Saudis worth some $37 billion in an apparent bid to insulate the world's top oil exporter from an Arab protest wave.

Significantly, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa was among the princes thronging the tarmac when Abdullah flew in.

King Hamad freed about 250 political prisoners on Wednesday and has offered dialogue with protesters, mostly from Bahrain's Shi'ite majority, who demand more say in the Sunni-ruled island.

Riyadh would be worried if unrest in Bahrain, where seven people were killed and hundreds wounded last week, spread to its own disgruntled Shi'ite minority in the oil-rich east.

Hundreds of people have backed a Facebook call for a Saudi "day of rage" on March 11 to demand an elected ruler, greater freedom for women and the release of political prisoners.

[ramana]

So the Oil guy was right!!!
In civil unrest concessions will lead to more demands.

Be ready for the tamper going off. L-v-K

---
LalMohanji, What are the ground rumors in Londonium?

[ramana]

BBC reports:

India plans Libya evacuation

Expect to see reports of how India used its planes to evacuate its citizens and is thus a future threat to Western powers.

India preparing for 'mammoth' Libya evacuation Many foreigners are now trying to get out of Libya. The Indian government has said that it is preparing for a "mammoth operation" involving planes and ships to evacuate its nationals from Libya.

Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said Delhi was in the process of obtaining permission from Libya for its aircraft to land in the country.

The Bangladeshi government has also restated its plans to repatriate 50,000 mostly manual labourers in Libya.

The Pakistani embassy in Libya says that 18,000 Pakistanis there are safe.

"We have not received any report regarding untoward incidents against Pakistanis. We have no consulate or a commercial section in [the eastern city of] Benghazi but we are in contact with Pakistani people living there and according to them they are safe," Pakistan's acting ambassador to Libya, Ali Javed, told the BBC.

"So far we have not received any reports about injuries or deaths of Pakistanis," he said.

Turmoil

The Nepalese embassy in Libya meanwhile says that it is continuing with efforts to evacuate immediately about 600 Nepali migrant workers stranded in the city of Darnah.

It says that plans have been initiated to bring the workers 800km (497 miles) from Darnah to Cairo after the South Korean construction company which employs them said that it was unable to arrange for their evacuation because of the turmoil in Libya.

"We will rescue the workers by Thursday," First Secretary Tirtha Aryal said in Kathmandu. "We have already initiated a process to obtain legal permission from the Egyptian authorities to rescue our citizens."

There are about 2,000 Nepali labourers in Libya.

Most Bangladeshis in Libya work in construction Of some 18,000 Indians in Libya, about 3,000 are reported to be in Benghazi working for car companies and hospitals.

Ms Rao said an Indian passenger ship was on standby in the Red Sea which could carry 1,000 people to safety.

The Indian foreign ministry on Wednesday condemned the violence, saying that it gave cause for "serious concern".

"The government [of India] deplores the use of force which is totally unacceptable and must not be resorted to," it said.

The Bangladeshi government says it will do "everything it can, whatever it takes, to ensure the safety and security of our workers, but the situation is very, very volatile".

Might be a good idea to offer to evacuate all SAARC citizens.

[Lalmohan]

ramana-ji; the bones are not falling clearly and indicating patterns
the financial markets are unusually subdued considering what is going on (but then the overall recovery is underway was well)

[shyamd]

Saudi king back home, orders $37 billion in handouts

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/ ... ational%29

Saudi King Abdullah returned home on Wednesday after a three-month medical absence and unveiled benefits for Saudis worth some $37 billion in an apparent bid to insulate the world's top oil exporter from an Arab protest wave.

Significantly, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa was among the princes thronging the tarmac when Abdullah flew in.

King Hamad freed about 250 political prisoners on Wednesday and has offered dialogue with protesters, mostly from Bahrain's Shi'ite majority, who demand more say in the Sunni-ruled island.

Riyadh would be worried if unrest in Bahrain, where seven people were killed and hundreds wounded last week, spread to its own disgruntled Shi'ite minority in the oil-rich east.

Hundreds of people have backed a Facebook call for a Saudi "day of rage" on March 11 to demand an elected ruler, greater freedom for women and the release of political prisoners.

He is pre-empting everything I said. They know what the problem is, and they are moving early and fast before there are any problems. This is King Abdullah for you.

He's only buying time.

King Hamad was there because they had a chat about the situation in Bahrain. There is a dispute within both Al Saud's and Al Khalifa's of how to deal with the situation. That appears to be the problem. So King Abdullah first move was to speak to all the princes about the Bahrain issue with King Hamad present.

The dispute is that some are opting for force while King Hamad and Crown prince are saying dialogue. King Abdullah is here to solve also Al Saud's dispute over this. I think Prince Nayef was backing force.

Saudi king announces billions in aid for needy

Billions of riyals to boost housing, social security services and education for needy in Saudi Arabia

* By Abdul Nabi Shaheen, Correspondent
* Published: 16:16 February 23, 2011
* Gulf News

Riyadh: Shortly before his return to Riyadh from a three-month treatment and convalescing trip, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz issued several orders aimed at boosting monetary outlays for housing, social security services and university education for members of needy families.

The first order grants Saudi Riyal 40 billion (Dh39.2 billion) to support the capital of the Kingdom's Real Estate Development Fund to enable it to finalise all pending loan applications and accelerate new loans. The order also stipulates granting a waiver to all previously unpaid housing loans.

Another order allocates SR1 billion for raising the maximum number of members of a family covered by social security from eight to 15. The decision also grants another SR3.5 billion for supporting social security programmes.

This aims at increasing allocations for people with special needs, and boosting the capacity of rehabilitation centres and medical services provided to them.

The Saudi monarch has also allocated SR1.2 billion for increasing the number of beneficiaries from social development funds and establishing vocational training programmes for women.

Among other Royal Orders, broadcast on Saudi TV on Wednesday, the Saudi Housing Commission was supported with SR15 billion. Government employees will continue to receive a 15 per cent allowance for the high cost of living.

King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz also decided to grant SR100 million in support of co-operative societies and increase the assistance provided to charitable societies by 50 per cent.

A total of SR476 million is to be allocated annually for supporting the Ministry of Education's needy

students' programmes. This includes providing clothing, school bags and other essentials. Saudi students studying abroad at their own expenses will be covered by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Overseas Scholarship Programme.

Giving more attention to needy and poor families, the King ordered some university seats to be reserved for students from these families. Conditions for admission for such students are to be eased and they are to be exempted from pre-admission fees and some other expenses. The students will also be given priority in campus housing and temporary jobs at the universities.

The decisions, which are said to have surpassed all expectations of the Saudi people, also include freeing large numbers of prisoners convicted of public rights crimes.

Moreover, the decisions grant SR10 million for every literary club in the Kingdom.

In statements to Gulf News, foreign diplomats said the King's new package was the biggest direct financial support to be given to the people in the modern history of Saudi Arabia.

When Armies Decide

By DAVID E. SANGER
Published: February 19, 2011

WASHINGTON — There comes a moment in the life of almost every repressive regime when leaders — and the military forces that have long kept them in power — must make a choice from which there is usually no turning back: Change or start shooting.

FACEOFF Bahraini protesters confronted army tanks last week. Unlike Egypt’s military, Bahrain’s would open fire.
Egypt’s military, calculating that it was no longer worth defending an 82-year-old, out-of-touch pharaoh with no palatable successor and no convincing plan for Egypt’s future, ultimately sided with the protesters on the street, at least for Act 1.

In so doing, they ignored the advice of the Saudis, who, in calls to Washington, said that President Hosni Mubarak should open fire if that’s what it took, and that Americans should just stop talking about “universal rights” and back him.

As the contagion of democracy protests spread in the Arab world last week, Bahrain’s far less disciplined forces decided, in effect, that the Saudis, who are their next-door neighbors, were right. They drew two lessons from Egypt: If President Obama calls, hang up. And open fire early.

It is far too early to know how either of these reactions will work out. But in both countries, as in nearly all police states, the key to change lies with the military. And as with any self-interested institution, the military’s leaders can be counted on to ask: What’s in it for us, long and short term?

Egypt’s military leadership came to the same conclusion that South Korea’s did in the 1980s and Indonesia’s did in the 1990s: The country’s top leader had suddenly changed from an asset to a liability.

The military, with its business enterprises, to say nothing of its American aid and high-tech arms, required a transition that would let it retain power while allowing Washington to herald gradual, substantive reform.

In Bahrain, on the other hand, the military seems to have concluded that adapting to change would do them no good — that the protesters were far too great a threat to their very command of society. So the country that acts as host to America’s Fifth Fleet decided to ignore President Obama’s advice, which it regarded as assisted suicide.

None of this came as much of a surprise to the White House, which last summer, at President Obama’s request, began examining the vulnerability of these regimes and more recently began examining what makes a transition to democracy successful.

“There are many different factors involved in the cases we have looked at: economic crises, aging authoritarians, negotiated transitions between elites,” said Michael McFaul, a top national security aide at the White House who runs what he jokingly calls the White House “Nerd Directorate.”

He spent the past few weeks churning out case studies for President Obama and the National Security Council, as it sought lessons about how to influence the confrontations that have engulfed close American allies and bitter adversaries. “There is not one story line or a single model,” said Mr. McFaul, who drew on work he did as a professor at Stanford. “There are many paths to democratic transition, and most of them are messy.”

Egypt certainly started out that way, with street battles between police and protesters, and a rampage by thugs to rout the protesters from Tahrir Square. But American officials, recalling their strained conversations with Egyptian counterparts, say they knew that Mr. Mubarak’s days were numbered eight days into the crisis, when the military made clear that — except in some extreme cases — it simply would not fire on its own people.

“You could almost hear them making the calculations in their heads,” said one senior American official who was involved in the delicate negotiations. “Did they want to stick with an aging, sick leader whose likely successor was his own son, who the military didn’t trust? And we just kept repeating the mantra, ‘Don’t break the bond you have with your own people.’ ”

Their words were persuasive, in no small part, many American officials believe, because of the revered role the military has long had in Egypt and its deep ties to the American military. A 30-year investment paid off as American generals, corporals and intelligence officers quietly called and e-mailed friends they had trained with.
Related

But now comes the trickiest part, which is making the military hold to its promises to allow a civilian government to flourish. That will mean the military must give up its monopoly on power, and that isn’t easy for any leader of a regime, especially one deeply invested in its country’s economy — a trait Egypt’s army shares with the People’s Liberation Army in China. Already, Egypt’s generals have balked at Mr. Obama’s demand for an immediate end to emergency rule.

The question is whether Egypt’s military can manage a transition to democracy, as the militaries of South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Chile have.

South Korea is perhaps the clearest example of a good outcome, for both its citizens and the United States. The country is now among the most prosperous in the world, and the government, after some very rocky years, is now Washington’s favorite ally in Asia. In the face of large street protests in the mid-1980s, the generals gradually allowed free elections. In those days, rumors of coups were rampant, and the first freely elected president was a general. But the last four have been civilians, including one Nobel-prize winning dissident.

Then there is Indonesia. General Suharto ruled for 31 years — then ran out of gas, just as Mr. Mubarak did. Washington ignored Suharto’s many human rights abuses because he was a steadfast anti-Communist. But he lasted only two and a half weeks after street riots broke out in 1998, triggered by the Asian economic crisis.

Suharto’s cold war utility had expired. Karen Brooks, a former White House expert on Indonesia, wrote last week for the Council on Foreign Relations about the similarities between Suharto and Mr. Mubarak: “Both demonized Islamist political forces and drove them underground; both kept a tight lid on the media, the opposition and all forms of dissent; both accumulated massive amounts of wealth while in power” and, of course, “both enjoyed the support of the United States.”

After Suharto was finally forced out, it took the Indonesian military little more than a year to hold elections. Ms. Brooks said that a clear deadline was important, but so was allowing the Islamists to enter politics. They did so on an anti-Israel, anti-American platform. But even in the world’s most populous Islamic nation, she notes, the Islamic parties have remained a small minority, because once they were inside the system “the party found itself participating in the same unseemly activities” as everyone else, from corruption to deal-making.

That example leaves the Israelis, among others, unimpressed. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, they point out, is far better organized, and more disciplined. “History is rife with cases in which well-intentioned revolutions are hijacked,” said one senior Israeli official, echoing a point that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton made the weekend before Mr. Mubarak’s fall.

One can make a good case that Washington’s comfort with years of slow, incremental change contributed to the crisis sweeping the region. When American officials visited Bahrain, the king, Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, usually said the right things: The country’s dispossessed Shiite majority was gradually getting a larger share of the national wealth, and slightly greater political freedoms. In private, though, the Bahraini military would tell the Pentagon that it would never allow Shiites into serious positions. “We were told the Shia would all be spies for Iran,” one former senior official in the Defense Department said last week.

So when the protests started, the military decided that if it held its fire, Egypt-style, it would have no future: The Shiite majority would take over the country. Military leaders doubled their bet on King Hamad and his son, Crown Prince Salman, who on Friday was placed in charge of starting a “national dialogue.” The same day troops opened fire again.

Abderrahim Foukara, the bureau chief of Al Jazeera’s Arabic service in Washington, said the crackdown’s consequences are predictable. “Once you shoot women and children at 3 in the morning, you may be able to hold on to power for a while, but any sense of legitimacy is gone,” he said.

He may prove right. But other people said the same thing about the People’s Liberation Army in Beijing when it opened fire in Tiananmen Square in 1989. The army’s bet on firepower that June day has paid off many times over: Today it has far-flung business interests that make it so rich and powerful that most of China’s leaders will not mess with it.

Pff... this article is kind of accurate and interesting, but regarding Bahrain, they dont really understand the problems, family politics etc.

[ramana]

Actually King Abdullah's reaction will be what will stabilize the Arab world or not. Puppets think they can use force but the forces unleashed here are bigger than them.
Jobs is what the educated unemployed need.

Qaddahig has shown how the stablity driven UN world order is morally bankrupt. The first sing was in 1971 when Pak dictators confident of US/P-5 support murdered their citizens in East Pakistan. Despite claiming to be for human rights and democracy the US did no utter word of condemnation then. Nor did the UN.

Since then the same sordid drama has repeated: Cambodia, Rawanda, East Timor, Darfur etc.

Cold War compusions kept the system in place. The radio had a US spokesman talking about consultations underway to develop options!

The first one should be a warning to Qaddafi that any more violence he will be treated as human rights criminal.

And rush in aid declaring Tripoli as open city with US Sixth Fleet along with European NATO ships steaming in to enforce the decision.


Open medical clinics on both sides of Libyan borders.

The old order is showing itself to have outlived its post-WWII situation.

[SwamyG]

Source

As Morning Edition host Steve Inskeep notes, former Harvard reseacher Gene Sharp has been an inspiration to young revolutionaries in countries such as Serbia and Egypt, where they used his manual From Dictatorship to Democracy and his book The Politics of Nonviolent Action to help guide them through what turned out to be successful — and peaceful — revolts against oppressive regimes.

"I was amazed when I saw, very early on in the Egyptian struggle, this testimony — 'we're not afraid anymore, we've lost our fear,' " Sharp says. "That is something Gandhi always advocated. He said 'cast off your fear.'

[SwamyG]

Look at the changes in this World after since the 80s':
* Collapse of USSR.
* Demise of Communist regimes
* Unification of Germany.
* Balkanization
* Gulf War
* Iraq & Af-Pak War
* Ascension of China
* Ascension of India
* 2007-2008 Economic Meltdown
* H&D hit on West & unchecked/extreme Capitalism.
* Arab Revolutions.
* Capital flight towards Asia.

America could use these revolutions to slow Chinese influence in Asia and Africa. America needed an USSR (cold war) to keep it stable or marching forward. The information age, with Internet, helped a lot of these happen.

I think we are seeing the start of full fledged Cold War between China and USA; and USA seems to have drawn the first blood. All conspiracy theories onlee, take for what ever salt it is worth.

[ramana]

ShyamD, I just read the David Sanger article. I think there is big cognizance gap in that article.
Egypt, Indonesia, Philippines, and South Korea are national armies. True they were dictators but in end knew which is more important.
The Bahrain, Libya, Pakistan armies are sectarian armies and represent the interests of only one or some groups. Hence the decision to resort to force.

[shyamd]

^^ Yes. Its the info from the sources that is more interesting, you can clearly tell the chap is not educated in history or understanding of the regions and its issues.

About the use of force- I'm not sure its that. The Saudi's think that using force will make the problem go away. But you see, the leaders like King Hamad and King Abdullah are a lot more pragmatic. They deal with these issues differently. Funnily enough when shooting was happening I asked source about family split. Source said to me, everyone wants to use what means they can for the country.

Dialogue is the best way, coupled with wealth distribution more evenly is a way forward. This is what is happening. Read: Why Bad economics is good politics. Its the first chapter of a book called Growing for Prosperity. They studied indian politics etc and they explain the economics of governance. Its very interesting and I really think this is what the leaders of the world look to, in order to solve their dissent problems. That goes for India too more than anywhere else. Please give it a read, its very very interesting.

[Bade]

How did the evacuation happen during Iraq ? Mostly by air isn't it. Here the civil war will make getting people out to the airports via road quite a task. You cannot rely on either side for a safe corridor.

[AKalam]

Might be a good idea to offer to evacuate all SAARC citizens.

Thanks ramana ji, for your concerns for fellow subcontinentals. Hopefully all stranded people will be able to safely get out.

[shyamd]

How did the evacuation happen during Iraq ? Mostly by air isn't it. Here the civil war will make getting people out to the airports via road quite a task. You cannot rely on either side for a safe corridor.

B Ramanji and I were talking about this today and what the option is. Basically, these are your options for evacuation:

- Benghazi Port. Relatively peaceful, no problems at all at the moment. Chinese are using this for evacuation.
- Tripoli Airport. You'll be lucky to get there
- Egypt/Libya border. This border is unmanned on the libyan side so there is free movement. Chinese have diplomats at the border welcoming Chinese here.

India is getting ships to an egyptian port which is quite accessible from Eastern side.

But here is the problem. There are many indians working in oil fields in desert areas. These are accessible via desert airstrips. Lots of looting at gun point of expats, so its pretty dangerous out there. Its gonna be risky to get them out.

I said, get a sea bridge between Malta and Benghazi port. Its only a few hours by ship. Then get flights into Tripoli airport.

Iraq evacuation, was mostly via Syria & Kuwait right?

----------------------------
Btw for those interested. there will be a new government in Bahrain and most likely in KSA too.

[Karna_A]

Will TSP use its crown jewels on Iran?
Will KSA ask TSP to use its crown jewels on Iran to avoid a Shia led revolt in Bahrain and KSA?
Will Karna have to use Shakti on Ghatotkacha instead of Arjuna as he always thought? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghatotkacha)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world ... audis.html

But demonstrators have maintained their loyalty to Bahrain. The head of the largest Shiite party, Al Wefaq, said that the party rejected Iran’s type of Islamic government. On Tuesday, a leading member of the party, Khalil Ebrahim al-Marzooq, said he was afraid that the king was trying to transform the political dispute into a sectarian one. He said there were rumors the king would open the border with Saudi Arabia and let Sunni extremists into the country to attack the demonstrators.

“The moment that any border opens by the government, means the other borders will open,” he said. “You don’t expect people will see their similar sect being killed and not interfere. We will not call them.”
But, he said, they will come.

[abhishek_sharma]

Bahrain King in Saudi Arabia to Discuss Unrest

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world ... hrain.html

[abhishek_sharma]

Arab Unrest Propels Iran as Saudi Influence Declines

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world ... audis.html

[abhishek_sharma]

Saudi Oil: If the world calls, will Saudi be there?

http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/po ... i_be_there

[Sriman]

B Ramanji and I were talking about this today and what the option is. Basically, these are your options for evacuation:

- Benghazi Port. Relatively peaceful, no problems at all at the moment. Chinese are using this for evacuation.
- Tripoli Airport. You'll be lucky to get there
- Egypt/Libya border. This border is unmanned on the libyan side so there is free movement. Chinese have diplomats at the border welcoming Chinese here.

Is Tripoli port not usable?

[abhishek_sharma]

Neocons and the Revolution

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... revolution

[ramana]

In Dvid Sanger's piece above:

None of this came as much of a surprise to the White House, which last summer, at President Obama’s request, began examining the vulnerability of these regimes and more recently began examining what makes a transition to democracy successful.

“There are many different factors involved in the cases we have looked at: economic crises, aging authoritarians, negotiated transitions between elites,” said Michael McFaul, a top national security aide at the White House who runs what he jokingly calls the White House “Nerd Directorate.”

He spent the past few weeks churning out case studies for President Obama and the National Security Council, as it sought lessons about how to influence the confrontations that have engulfed close American allies and bitter adversaries. “There is not one story line or a single model,” said Mr. McFaul, who drew on work he did as a professor at Stanford. “There are many paths to democratic transition, and most of them are messy.”

Then why are they so surprised? That their studies came true? Or they didn't believe them?

[ramana]

ShyamD, Try to step back in time and review the whole West Asia setup after WWII and end of colonialism to date. Look at multilateral structures and political setup.

[Singha]

I guess paradrops of suitcases full of currency to army generals is the best way to collapse the regime in a soft manner....once main army generals change sides and are assured of amnesty and keeping their ill-gotten loot, the militias will melt away or be hunted down by angry civilians...

http://www.freep.com/article/20110224/N ... ng-capital

BENGHAZI, Libya -- The scope of Moammar Qaddafi's control was whittled away Wednesday as major Libyan cities and towns closer to the capital fell to the rebellion against his rule. In the east, now all but broken away, the opposition pledged to liberate Tripoli, where the Libyan leader is holed up with militiamen roaming the streets and tanks guarding the outskirts.

In a further sign of Qaddafi's faltering hold, two air force pilots -- one from the leader's own tribe -- parachuted out of their warplane and let it crash into the eastern Libyan desert rather than follow orders to bomb an opposition-held city.

International momentum was building for action to punish Qaddafi's regime for the bloody crackdown it has unleashed against the uprising that began Feb. 15.

President Barack Obama said the suffering and bloodshed in Libya "is outrageous, and it is unacceptable," and he directed his administration to prepare the full range of options to respond.

Obama said he was sending Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to Geneva, Switzerland, for international talks aimed at stopping the bloodshed and formulating a unified global message to Qaddafi.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy raised the possibility of the European Union cutting off economic ties. Another proposal gaining some traction was for the United Nations to declare a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent it from using warplanes to hit protesters.

In Tripoli, protest organizers called for new rallies today and Friday, raising the potential for another bloody confrontation.

In many neighborhoods, residents set up watch groups to keep Qaddafi forces out, barricading streets with concrete blocks, metal and rocks, and searching those trying to enter, a Tripoli activist said on condition of anonymity because of fear of retaliation.

In opposition-controlled Benghazi, the eastern city where the uprising began, residents held a mass rally outside the main courthouse, pledging to support protesters in the capital, said Farag al-Warfali, a banker.

The idea is to "march toward Tripoli," al-Warfali said, although Benghazi is 580 miles east of the capital, and territory still loyal to Qaddafi lies between them.

There were similar calls in Misrata, Libya's third-largest city, which was taken over by anti-government forces Wednesday. Residents honked horns in celebration in the city, about 120 miles east of Tripoli.

Qaddafi's control over the country he has ruled for 41 years has been reduced to the western coastal region around Tripoli, the deserts to the south and parts of the center.

[Singha]

if misratah has fallen to the rebels, it seems regime loyalists are boxed in around tripoli.

islands of support in the interior will surrender if tripoli falls.

time for UN to declare a no-fly zone and neighbouring AFs like Egypt with their shiny new F-solahs to clean up the skies. italian and spanish typhoons can also press their case for MRCA by shooting down libyan Mig23/27 types.

[shyamd]

^^ Singhaji. Italy will not get involved. Qaddafi bailed out Italy in 2008. They literally have Italy by the balls. If the libyans pull out their $$, European economy is "khalaas" (finished) as someone needs to bailout the banks. Italian economy would be back to 2008 state.
The oil prices are putting up inflation too and this is placing strains in Spain and other economies in europe.

I don't think people havethought about how serious this is for EU economies

[Lalmohan]

italy is most vulnerable, the libyans have stakes in everything from ENI (oil & gas major) to Juventus football club. Berluscuddin has publicly pampered Col-G. In addition, Berluscuddin started $5B worth of colonial era reparations payments to Libya last year for 25 years...
pulling the money out of italy will stall the nascent economic recovery in core europe (italy is part of the core) or atleast make it jittery. however with only 2% of global oil supply, libya alone will not upset the oil cart - various predictions for oil price shock levels are coming through - some or all may be true, but clearly above a certain level there will be major implications for all economies

...

now then... CT afficionados...

Q: who is the most vulnerable from oil price pain?
A: taller than mountain deeper than ocean dragon

is unkil slowly revealing his haath in this?

[Maram]

Ramana Garu.. Lal Mohan ji,

The news from Londonium so far is :-

1) A lot of print media is highlighting shoddy rescue flight planning(compared to countries like Portugal,Germany,Turkey etc...)
2) Late Night local talk radio listeners calling radio stations and expressing anger at Why UK tax payer has to pay for safety of folks who don't pay tax to the queen etc... blah blah...
3)On the 23/2/11, TV channels were airing Ombaba's speech and talking about " all options are being considered"
4)Left wing media outlets like gaurdian/mirror/independent asking for freezing Colonel's stash in UK and on how UK arms companies still are equipping rogue regimes in the Middle East
5)Some are calling Cameron's middle eastern soujourn as a "farce"
6) In the mean time nero(Nick Clegg) is holidaying as Rome( libyan crisis) Burnt!

LalMohan ji is spot on, Amir Khan may be in the process of revealing his hand.

In the end all politics is local. the threat of redundancy looms large on several folks in the UK economy and so thats all they are bothered about right now... over and out from NorthWest UK....

[Lalmohan]

mango brit is not too bothered (80% of pop) - they are all funny darkies after all and besides what does it have to do with my job surviving till next month?; intelligent brit (15%) is emotionally excited by spread of democracy but worried about beards so is unsure about how to react; economic/manager brit (5% or less) is worried about oil price and impact on the economic recovery and his next bonus

i can't make out yet if dawood kamran has been brave/opportunistic in initiating dialogue with the new regime in egypt or he is there as unkil's emisary to sound out the way ahead or to send instructions from washington

given the new government's record so far, i'd like to think that kamran is charting a new course... but i cant be sure

[A_Gupta]

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semp ... misry.html

In almost all the cases where the military ruled in the region, they achieved certain degrees of development. In Egypt, the slogan in mid-50’s was to build one school every two days. That was more or less done. In the beginning of the 60’s it was “1000 factories”. Literacy was at its highest in record. Kids used to receive a healthy free meal in schools. The Aswan dam was built. Hospitals were clean and free.

But all this occurred without “democracy”. In fact, a horrifying police state was being built behind the smoke of “national victories”. East German and Soviet experts in internal security were invited to design this whole structure. But Nasser did not allow that to stop him from arresting all Egyptian communists, hanging the leaders of the Muslem Brotherhood and banning any political activity except his own...

....

In Libya, Iraq, Syria, Algeria, and Yemen it was a similar story with different levels of intensity. The military regimes achieved some very essential social and political goals in return for a “blank check” from the population. In all these countries silence was imposed and a decorative political life was staged for deception purposes. But the equations were all the same : We will give you food, stability, education, infrastructural projects, national pride, jobs in the public sectors, price controls, etc., and you will give us total silence and submission. That was the deal.

But, times changed. The achievements were lost one after the other like the feathers of an old bird. What remained was the oppressive machine, the army that was in power, and some empty slogans.

[Lalmohan]

i guess we need to see if an Italian led 'NATO force' decides to intervene in the Libyan civil war, with the backing of the Egyptians to secure the oil fields...

[ramana]

Libya produces 2% of the world oil ie noise level. Yet turmoil is being exploited by oil companies and leaders are wringing their hands about free markets and other stuff.

[rsingh]

i guess we need to see if an Italian led 'NATO force' decides to intervene in the Libyan civil war, with the backing of the Egyptians to secure the oil fields...

Any armed intervention may backfire. Gaddafi and others like him will raise the arabs within hours. IMO these chain revolutions are sucessful because of inaction of west.

[Bade]

Looks like most Indians are located around Tripoli as per this report.

India firms up Libya evacuation plan

For a ship to sail from Libya to India it takes six days. Out of the 18,000 Indians in Libya, around 12,000 live in the capital Tripoli, and around. It takes four hours from Tripoli to Valletta, from where they can be flown out.

Benghazi, which is reported to be in the hands of the protesters has an Indian population of 3,000.

A ship can reach Alexandria in Egypt in 8-9 hours from there. A passenger ship, which is the Mediterranean Sea, that can carry 800 people, has been directed to drop anchor in anticipation of an evacuation. However, direct flights can operate from Sebha, which along with nearby areas have 2,000 people and Kufra has an Indian population of 1,000 people.

[Singha]

good pix here
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ds-newsxml

the only US response so far has been sending a 600 person ferry from malta to tripoli which is presently in harbour due to rough seas until tomorrow. permission to land flights in airport was denied by the regime.

around 5000 pan african militia members trained by the regime seems to be core of tripoli defence along with loyal militia and army units. there is fighting in some town 40 miles west of tripoli also.

imo the circle might get tighter over next two weeks as the "rebels" gather resources and deserters and march on tripoli in motorized transport. not expecting a quick outcome here...

[ramana]

There are random assessments on radio. Looks like Tripoli is a Qaddafi stronghold. There are reprots of the former Interior Minster organizing a govt in East Libya. There are reports of troops crossing over.

Qaddafi was referrng to a town ~50miles from Tripoli 'slipping' out of his hands. He is blaming Bin Laden with supplying drugs and alcohol to the protestors.

Slowly dawning on experts that Libya is a rebellion and not a protest. The periphery rebelling vs the capital protests.

Many Western leaders look foolish for having propped out the desert lizard Qaddafi.

Still stasis in US got repsonse. Lots of lip service about accountablity and other diplomatese. No threats to the dictator to stop the violence. Just calls which he will ignore.

There are deluded 'experts' claiming Qaddafi will carry out the threat of mass murder and implying doing nothing is the best option.

Reports of UK charter plane sitting in Gatwick for 10 hours after being hired.

Reports of high tide preventing ships leaving Libyan ports. And officials taking a lot of time to stamp passports.

ShyamD are you chronicling India efforts to get the citizens out of Libya in your blog?


All hwo is TSP taking the news of Qaddafi's problems? Recall there is a Qaddafi stadium etc in TSP and they took lot of money from him and sold him junk with PRC bum plans in a dry cleaning bag!

[SwamyG]

So the gurus agree that Qaddafi is toast too? Just a matter of time onlee? Or would he escape this wrath?

Ramana garu: Exactly. I can't understand why the markets are so jittery and Oil is climbing high.

[ramana]

He was toast the day Benghazi rebelled. However he has the guns and has the capability to do damage while going down. The real challenge is to minimize that.

I think a strong show of force will cow the bully. The pity is he cant take off to KSA as they will hang him there. Maybe he can go to Venezula.

[Lalmohan]

oil is climbing on saudi jitters
libya has been written off, risk priced into italy stocks

singha-ji, looks like the afrika 'korps' will make their last stand at the presidential tent in tripoli, just like SS Nordland and Charlemagne at the Reichstag. i can't imagine that the libyans will treat them very kindly when the shooting stops...