Caucasus Crisis

[ShyamSP]

Good thing about this attack of Russia on Georgia is that International institutions lost relevance.
NATO as security bogeyman of the west is also shown to be toothless tiger.

This is good for India as it doesn't have strong position in those Intl institutions. In any newly
constructed institutions India can aspire to have stronger position as India is at a stronger
negotiating position than before.

Hope to see some Patel guy buying UN building in NY and converting into Motel Manhattan.

Can't the exact same thing be said about US invasion of Iraq where the UN was shown to have little to relevance? Actually, part of the neocon agenda is to weaken the UN's capability and credibility. Interesting, no?

I'm talking about collapse of current institutions (security and civilian) not just UN. Russia was at weaker position during Iraq invasion and now it has shown its paw. I'm looking for a bipolar/multipolar from current unipolar world for new institutions like World's Security Org (WSO) or World's Assembly (WA) to emerge.

Hope to see some Patel guy buying UN building in NY and converting into Motel Manhattan and making that Taroor idiot head janitor.

[NRao]

Perhaps we should move and stick to the topic of this thread.

With Georgia, Russia at war, where's Condoleezza Rice?

AP :: The United States' Response to the Russia/Georgia War

Inevitable Russia-Georgia war brewed for years

[Lalmohan]

GW-II had (ash-faq) kiyani-all to do with the plight of the kurds! not sure if you're being ironic when talking about them. if anything the kurds are an irritant in the big picture. the neo con agenda was always to find a prototype democratic state in the middle east from which to radiate out the pax americana to the desert infidels and complete the crusade. that state was judged to be iraq since it was more secular and better educated than the others... only minor irritant being sad-damn. but he'd been whopped once, he could be whopped again. it all went so horribly wrong. the real war on terror has always been in afganistan and pakistan, its only now that these yahoos are taking it seriously.

and if you read about the UN and the US in the backdrop of the Rwanda genocide, you'll be physically sick at the sheer callousness of 'the west' over those poor darkies without any oil. completely changed my mind about billua clington

[enqyoob]

Vick, sometimes on BRF the temptation becomes very strong to just walk away, what with all the PC Pandoos waiting with lathis and Delete Keys for any move to take out the Mototov Cocktail, but the temptation to stay and do some good sometimes wins. You, my friend are doing nothing but flame-baiting and barking.

So, what's your point? Russia stopping the killing of Ossetians is good but US invasion of Iraq and stopping the Kurdish genocide is bad?

My point is that the US didn't do diddly to stop the genocide against Kurds. I am sure you have the literacy to go back and read my post, whether you have the integrity is up to you.

The US went to war again in 2003 for spurious and blatantly false reasons, however beautifully Colin Powell articulated the lies with satellite photos from 1989-90 in the UN.

Genocide of the Kurds stopped, didn't it?

Genocide against the Kurds stopped loooong before the US invasion in 2003. It in fact occurred before and AFTER the 1990-91 war, so the US invasion had nothing to do with it. Again, I am sure that's what I wrote, but you did not choose to either use your gray cells, or go check on the facts if you are ignorant, but instead chose to flame-bait.

narayanan wrote:
I am glad you think Iraq has "territorial integrity" today, though over 1.8 million of its citizens including nearly a miillion children have met early deaths due to violence or malnutrition. But Halliburton and Blackwater stocks are doing great, thank you!

Isn't that a bit like saying sure, Russia might have save the lives of Ossetians but what about the Georgians it killed, including Georgian children?

No, it is not like saying anything like that, it doesn't sound like it, the words don't have anywhere near the same meaning, and you are throwing red herrings desperately to cover the obvious fact that your arguing positions has been blasted to Houristan.

The Georgian Army started this particular round of killing civilians. There is no evidence that the Russians deliberately targeted civilians. They have taken over Gori, but certainly haven't gone around tossing grenades into basements to kill hiding civilians like the Georgians did in Tkshinvali. Some apartments and markets got hit with random bombs, but even with all the western papparazzi running around, there is no evidence that there was anything else. The targets were exclusively military. For instance, has the goon Shaakashvili's "Presidential Palace" been leveled? Why not? Didn't Dubya go hit Saddam's Presidential Palaces even BEFORE the 2003 invasion started?

Tbilisi could have been carpet-bombed by the Russians since they have complete air dominance - but they have instead stopped the war without chasing the fleeing Georgian "Army" of civilian-killers any further.

Again, Vick, the facts are before your eyes, but you are deliberately ignoring them like Dubya before the 2003 war. Instead you are very obviously trolling. I know that reasoning with you is futile, because you are not here to debate but to troll, but I do want others to see your Glorious Victory.

Thanks, Vick, for the opportunity to contrast the US Administration's lies about Iraq with the reality of the situation in Georgia. I'm afraid the US' favorite Harvard graduate mass murderer Kissinger-follower Shaakashvili is toast.

There! I don't think I have violated any of the guidelines per Forum or the long and varied edicts of the various admins here. (oops! violated the one about "no smileys"!)

[A_Gupta]

uping the ante:

http://freeandindependent.wordpress.com ... h-ossetia/

Russians move 2 SS-21 Medium Range Ballistic Missile Launchers into South Ossetia

Col. Sam Gardiner notes, in an interview with Amy Goodman on http://www.democracynow.org/ Democracy Now, Russia has deployed tactical nuclear weapons to South Ossetia. The SS-21 Missile launchers are relatively weak compared to bombs that have already been used against Georgia by the Russian air force. However, this move does indicate Russia is potentially upping the game from a conventional weapons war to a tactical nuclear weapons war. Gardiner notes that at a news conference on Sunday, the US Deputy National Security advisor has noted these weapons arriving in South Ossetia.

Business Wire confirms the subject matter of the news briefing in Beijing.

from a comment here:
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semp ... ussia.html
which is interesting in its own right.

[Gerard]

Situation Report, Russo-Georgian Conflict

Analysis


• Russia has announced a unilateral ceasefire because its operations have achieved their aims.

• Medvedev and Sarkozy have drafted a document that encapsulates all of Russia’s demands in return for a ceasefire—but not a final settlement, which must still be negotiated. Sarkozy is discussing that deal with Saakashvili right now.

• So the situation on the ground now legally is that there are two unilateral ceasefires, although the Georgians claim that Russian forces continue their attacks, and the Russian military has laid the predicate for those and further attacks in public statements today. The Russian military has also made plain that if a formal ceasefire agreement is not reached, then Russian forces will not withdraw from Ossetia or Abkhazia.

• The Russian military has clearly stated that the objective of its operations was to reduce Georgia’s overall military capability so that Georgia could not again conduct an operation similar to the one it launched in South Ossetia, and for that reason has been attacking targets throughout Georgia.

• Russian leaders repeatedly say that they will not deal with Saakashvili.

• The Russian Attorney General has announced that Russian law permits the trial of Saakashvili for crimes under the Russian Federation Criminal Code.

• The Russian Foreign Minister has called for an investigation of Georgian war crimes and the punishment of those ultimately responsible by international tribunals, and has said that Russian citizens victimized by Georgians will be bringing individual actions in appropriate European human rights courts.

• The Russian aim is to force Saakashvili from power, preferably using international legal maneuvers (a la Milosevic), but possibly using Russian law instead or in addition.

• The Russians are maintaining their excessive forces in South Ossetia, and continuing to control Georgia’s airspace and conduct periodic attacks in a flagrant effort to compel an immediate Georgian agreement to their armistice terms, conveyed by Sarkozy.

• Russia will not permit South Ossetia and Abkhazia to return to Georgian control, and will move one way or the other to have their independence recognized, and probably soon.

[Gerard]

US, allies weigh punishment for Russia

Scrambling to find ways to punish Russia for its invasion of pro-Western Georgia, the United States and its allies are considering expelling Moscow from an exclusive club of powerful nations and canceling an upcoming joint NATO-Russia military exercise, Bush administration officials said Tuesday.

[NRao]

BBC :: Georgia and Russia agree on truce

[A_Gupta]

Moscow was disconcertingly taken by surprise with the sharp escalation of hostilities in South Ossetia last Friday. The most apparent part of the problem was the lack of leadership, as President Dmitry Medvedev departed to a Volga resort and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin went to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. The greater problem was the serious military and political miscalculations that had resulted in the apparently chaotic emergency decision-making (Kommersant, August 9; Ezhednevny zhurnal, August 8 ). It is hard to blame the military for missing the Georgian preparations for the large-scale offensive, since the command of the Armed Forces had been thoroughly reshuffled: The Chief of the General Staff was replaced in early June, his first deputy (the head of the Main Operational Department) was fired in early July and not replaced, and the commander of the Ground Forces was replaced in the first days of August (Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 5).

The main blunder, however, was political, as the Kremlin seriously overestimated its ability to dominate the situation in the conflict zone. The large-scale military exercises conducted across the North Caucasus in July were supposed to demonstrate Russia’s superiority in projecting power (Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 18 ). In parallel, the withdrawal of the railway troops from Abkhazia in early August symbolized Moscow’s flexibility and responsiveness to the peace proposals advanced by Germany (Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 8 ). Putin was confident that his performance at the NATO Bucharest summit had effectively blocked Georgia’s Atlantic aspirations; several stern "warnings" should have ensured that Georgia would not dare make any pro-active move. Surprise was so complete that Putin, according to those who saw him in Beijing, was pale with barely controlled rage, which he tried to convey to U.S. President George Bush and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev (Moscow echo, August 8 ).

Via
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/12 ... 622/566882

[Y. Kanan]

Some quick observations\predictions:

* Russia stopped its military action too quickly. This leaves the Georgian gov't in power and ensures quick NATO membership for Georgia. Russia's failure to decisively punish Georgia will embolden Ukraine and the other ex-Soviet republics. Now all these ex-USSR states will scramble to join NATO and move decisively into the US orbit. Georgia got off too easy; now the other republics have seen the bear can be antagonized and prodded without disastrous consequences.

* The entire US political\corporate\military establishment is eager for a new Cold War. Media coverage of this conflict has been so blatantly one-sided that it proves the ruling establishment's determination to demonize Russia and justify even greater military spending and US aggression worldwide. The US powers-that-be are already selling the next Cold War and round of interventions, wars, and empire-building - an even bigger bonanza for the military-industrial-energy complex than Iraq has been.

* If there was any doubt about the US mass media being under the direct and firm control of the US ruling establishment, it certainly doesn't exist anymore.

* The US and Europeans are going to punish Russia with a wide range of economic and political measures. Georgia and other nations antagonistic to Russia will be armed with billions in high-tech military gear. Russia will be forced to respond by arming Hezbollah, Syria, Iraqi insurgents, Iran, and other US opponents. The US military may, for the first time, find itself facing real weaponry.

* Russia and China may get pushed back into each other's arms once again. This could prove very inconvenient for India.

[svinayak]

http://www.ca-c.org/online/2005/journal ... neng.shtml

http://www.everyculture.com/Ge-It/Georgia.html

Identification. The term "Georgian" does not derive from Saint George but from the ancient Persian Gurg or Gorg, meaning wolf, "supposedly a totemic symbol, or from the Greek georgios ("farmer," "cultivator of land").

Self-identification is based mainly on linguistic tradition, and population groups that belong to different ethno-linguistic groups, such as Ossetians, Abkhazians, Armenians, Greeks, and Kurds, are not considered Georgian. There are some exceptions, such as Jews, who speak Georgian as a native language and have surnames with Georgian endings, but historically have had a distinct cultural identity. Georgians are subdivided into smaller regional ethno-cultural entities. All that have specific traditions and customs, folklore, cuisine, and dress and may speak a different language. Ajarans, unlike the Eastern Orthodox majority, are mostly Sunni Muslims. All these groups preserve and share a common identity, literary language, and basic system of values.

http://www.caucaz.com/home_eng/breve_contenu.php?id=297

[shiv]

Hope to see some Patel guy buying UN building in NY and converting into Motel Manhattan and making that Taroor idiot head janitor.

One of the things that education does not teach us is that a degree of decency is required in speaking about people for a particular reason. We collect in a forum because we share a common nation and interests, with common friends and relatives.

It should be obvious when you scratch the surface that sharing common friends and relatives means that even public figures like Manmohan Singh. Shashi Tharoor or someone else has a friend or relative who visits this forum.

I repeat yet again that if I call a forum member's father or uncle or good friend an idiot or a ******** it is unlikely to be taken as a joke or allowed to pass. Why can't perfectly well informed and responsible people on this forum understand that public figures that they diss may also be friends or relatives of forum members and they may be needlessly hurting feelings by using words that they would not us with people face to face (without risking getting punched in the face)

We have a forum were we weep heavily on loss of dharma and yearn for jahlia, but we can't get past the habit of cussing someone we don't know personally. Please stop. A least two forum members have received 3 warnings about this and that causes an automatic one month ban to kick in. A fourth warning leads to a 3 month ban. A fifth warning after that to a permanent ban.

[Gerard]

This Saakashvili chap has got to be a reincarnated Paki leader
Sombre mood at Georgian rally

Mr Saakashvili told the crowd: "I promise you today, that I'll remind them of everything they have done and one day we will win."

[enqyoob]

Vintage Ayub Yahya Khan Musharraf.

[svinayak]

Cyberspace Barrage Preceded Russian Fighting

*
By JOHN MARKOFF
Published: August 12, 2008

Weeks before physical bombs started falling on Georgia, a security researcher in suburban Massachusetts was watching an attack against the country in cyberspace.
Skip to next paragraph
Enlarge This Image

A screen grab of the Georgian Parliament Web site, parliament.ge, which had been defaced by the "South Ossetia Hack Crew." The site's content had been replaced with images comparing Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, to Adolf Hitler.

Jose Nazario of Arbor Networks in Lexington noticed a stream of data directed at Georgian government sites containing the message: win+love+in+Rusia.

Other Internet experts in the United States said the attacks against Georgia’s Internet infrastructure began as early as July 20, with coordinated barrages of millions of requests — known as distributed denial of service, or D.D.O.S., attacks — that overloaded certain Georgian servers.

The Georgian government blamed Russia for the attacks, but the Russian government said it was not involved.

Researchers at Shadowserver, a volunteer group that tracks malicious network activity, reported that the Web site of the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, had been rendered inoperable for 24 hours by multiple D.D.O.S. attacks. The researchers said the command and control server that directed the attack, which was based in the United States, had come online several weeks before it began the assault.

As it turns out, the July attack may have been a dress rehearsal for an all-out cyberwar once the shooting started between Georgia and Russia.

According to Internet technical experts, it was the first time a cyberattack had coincided with a shooting war. But it will likely not be the last, said Bill Woodcock, the research director of the Packet Clearing House, a nonprofit that tracks Internet traffic. He said cyberattacks are so inexpensive and easy to mount, with few fingerprints, that they will almost certainly remain a feature of modern warfare.

[Gerard]

Russia's Divide and Conquer Strategy

[svinayak]

The Caucasus — Washington Risks Nuclear War by Miscalculation
By F. William Engdahl

Rather than initiate discussions after the 1991 dissolution of the Warsaw Pact about a systematic dissolution of NATO, Washington has systematically converted NATO into what can only be called the military vehicle of an American global imperial rule, linked by a network of military bases from Kosovo to Poland to Turkey to Iraq and Afghanistan. In 1999, former Warsaw Pact members Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic joined NATO. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia followed suit in March 2004. Now Washington is putting immense pressure on the EU members of NATO, especially Germany and France, that they vote in December to admit Georgia and Ukraine.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_cys2T5FgJdo/S ... ucasus.JPG

[ramana]

A few comments.

That cyberspace attack stuff might be true but it doesnt deny the fact that it was Georgia that used the Olympics as a diversion and launched an attack that killed many people. The Russian response was a retaliation and sort of restoring order. One couldnt wait for Un resolutions etc as the world leader who mattered were diverted to beijing and there are pictures of Bush and Putin looking deeply into each others soles.

Engdahl has something to think about. Russia might cut of gas supplies in December stating pipeline problems. Imperial reach is for those who have the stomach to suffer the losses and not for shopkeepers.

Also now those stories of SS21 make sense.

[Vick]

Vick, sometimes on BRF the temptation becomes very strong to just walk away, what with all the PC Pandoos waiting with lathis and Delete Keys for any move to take out the Mototov Cocktail, but the temptation to stay and do some good sometimes wins. You, my friend are doing nothing but flame-baiting and barking.

I can understand why you're getting frustrated at someone looking at the same facts and coming to a different conclusion. It's interesting that you've decided that somehow disengagement from conversation can occur by hurling accusations at the other person. I guess, that's par for the course for you and your ability for selective application of "logic". Take for instance your ability to justify Russian actions on one hand due to some pretext but condemn similar US action based on similar pretext, on the other.

I hope you do understand that I couldn't let you get the last word in after hurling accusations at me. Now, you may disengage and attend your local chapter of Наши weekly meetings.

[enqyoob]

That is one classy hacking job.

But the reports of tactical nukes being moved along with the SS-21s are not so funny. Maybe it's time to dust off the Fallout Shelter signs over my workplace again. Ukraine and Latvia and all are playing with fire. They should let Shaakashvili stew in how own pee.

BTW, Vick dear, bye, sorry to have made you cry. I am way too happy and peaceful to be drawn in by people who are just trolling and flamebaiting, and have no thoughtful points to make whatsoever. The Forum now has this wonderful feature where if I log in, your posts don't show up. So keep posting to your musharraf's content - it just shows up as "this post is posted by a troll and rendered invisible ha ha!" Okayski, lets see.. where did I put my bottle of Stolichnaya?

[A_Gupta]

Debate in the American Establishment:
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archiv ... hour/#more

Transcript of
GWEN IFILL INTERVIEWS VITALY CHURKIN, AND MARGARET WARNER INTERVIEWS DIMITRI SIMES AND RICHARD HOLBROOKE FOR "THE NEWSHOUR WITH JIM LEHRER"

Very interesting!

Remember, Richard Holbrooke is advising Obama.

[Vick]

Here's some US domestic fallout from this episode:

From FT

Foreign policy pulls in 'Obamacans'
By Edward Luce by Washington
August 12, 2008 9:17:00 PM

Barack Obama on Tuesday netted the endorsement of three prominent Republicans, including Jim Leach and Lincoln Chafee, both of whom lost their congressional seats to Democratic opponents in the 2006 mid-term elections.

The announcement boosts the ranks of so-called "Obamacans" and is likely to fuel speculation about the possibility of bigger names – such as Colin Powell, former secretary of state, and Chuck Hagel, the Republican senator for Nebraska – also endorsing the Democratic nominee.

Describing Mr Obama's call for change as "more renewal than departure" and thus in line with traditional conservative principles, Mr Leach said: "This is simply not a time for politics as usual . . . I have no doubt that a lot of Republicans will be attracted to Obama in spite of the flaws in this year's primary process."

The two Republicans, along with Rita Hauser, a former White House intelligence adviser, stressed foreign policy as their principal motivation for endorsing Mr Obama.

Ms Hauser described as "bellicose" the response of John McCain, the Republican nominee, to Russia's conflict with Georgia.

Most "Obamacans" come from the so-called realist wing of the Republican party which has fallen into deep disenchantment with president George W. Bush's foreign policy.

Some have also stressed their hope that Mr Obama would take a more aggressive approach to solving the Israeli-Palestinian crisis even though the Democrat has taken a strongly pro-Israel line. All said they supported Mr Obama's pledge to talk to US adversaries, including Iran.

"There is a deepening split between the traditional Nixonian realist wing of the Republican party and the neo-conservatives that has become more pronounced with John McCain's hardline anti-Russia rhetoric," said Steve Clemons at the New America Foundation.

"I have good reason to believe that there will be other Republicans, such as James Baker (the former secretary of state), who may withhold endorsement from McCain rather than endorse Obama directly."

Electoral analysts say there is unlikely to be a large switch of Republican voters, although Mr Obama's endorsement by prominent Republicans could help sway independents into the Democratic column or encourage others to stay at home.

Mr McCain is working hard to win over hawkish Democrats to his camp, following his endorsement by Joe Lieberman, the former vice-presidential candidate, earlier this year.

There is a possibility that both Mr McCain and Mr Obama could choose running mates from opposition ranks in a bid for centrist voters. Mr Hagel is thought to be an outside choice for Mr Obama's ticket and Mr Lieberman is on Mr McCain's shortlist.

[A_Gupta]

Read Flynt Leverett at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26158425/
(Countdown with Keith Olbermann on MSNBC).

A brief look at how American politics plays into this crisis.

[ajay_hk]

How different is this from what happened in Kosovo? There you had Albanians as the ethnic group wanting to cecede from Yugoslavia. The United States used military force against an independent nation without UN mandate to break up Yugoslavia. How different is it from what the Russians have done here? The Ossetians wanted to cecede from Georgia and the Russians seem to have done the same thing. US being pro-UN now (to appear benevolant to the world?) is just plain hypocrisy.

I'm afraid US has already set a bad precedent by creating dangerous and chaotic ground realities - directly arming states that are hostile to Russian interests in that region et al. Would it be right to think that US is trying to encroach the Russian sphere of influence for its own geo-political interests by using NATO as the tool?

The Russians did convey a stern message to the 'West' with its quick and efficient military responce. It'll be interesting to see how things shape out once the Russians actually start to pull out.

[Skanda]

Early lessons from S Ossetia conflict

1. Do not punch a bear on the nose unless it is tied down.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
Did President Saakashvili miscalculate?

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili must have thought that Russia would not react strongly when he sent his forces in on the eve of the Olympic games to regain control of a territory he had insisted must remain part of Georgia, albeit with some form of autonomy.

Yet Russia was always likely to respond. It already had forces there, leading the peacekeeping force agreed back in the easier days of 1992 between President Boris Yeltsin of Russia and President Edward Shevardnadze of Georgia, himself the former Soviet foreign minister who helped bring the Cold War to an end.

Russia has been supporting the separatists in South Ossetia and handed out Russian passports to the population, thereby enabling it to claim that it was defending its own citizens.

The result of what many see as his miscalculation is that President Saakashvili might well lose any hope of reasserting Georgian power in the enclave.

2. Russia is in a determined mood, to say the least.

Russia, as it has so often done in the past, sees itself being encircled.

In a revealing interview with former BBC Moscow correspondent Tim Whewell earlier this year, an adviser to the then President Vladimir Putin, Gleb Pavlosky, said that the Russian leadership had concluded after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine that "this is what we faced in Moscow, that they would try to export this to us, that we should prepare for this situation and very quickly strengthen our political system..."

What applied after Ukraine moved towards the West also applied as Georgia did the same. Moscow wanted to prevent any such internal revolution in Russia itself and therefore saw Ukraine and Georgia as hostile influences.

It is not clear how far Russia wants to push this, but given that it says it wants to re-establish order in South Ossetia, that probably means a permanent presence, with no return to a Georgian government role. Diplomats think it unlikely that Russia will invade Georgia 'proper'.

3. Remember Kosovo.

Russia was mightily displeased when the West supported the separation of Kosovo from Serbia and warned of consequences. This might be one of them. Of course, Russia has not argued in this crisis that it is simply doing what the West did in Kosovo - that would undermine its own argument that states should not be broken up without agreement. But everyone knows that underneath, Kosovo is not far from its mind.

4. Georgia is unlikely to join Nato anytime soon.

Georgia and Ukraine were denied membership of Nato in April, although they were allowed to develop an action plan that could lead to membership one day.

The Americans argued for both countries to be accepted, but the Germans and others countered that the region was too unstable for these countries to join at the moment and that in particular Georgia, a state with a border dispute, should not be given formal Nato support.

5. Vladmir Putin is still in charge.

It was Mr Putin, prime minister not president these days, who went to Beijing for the Olympic opening ceremony and who then rushed to the crisis region to take control of the Russian response. His language was uncompromising - Russia was right to intervene, he stated.

6. Do not allow a cuckoo to police the nest.

Mr Shevardnadze's decision in 1992 to allow Russia into South Ossetia as part of the peacekeeping force enabled a later and very different Russian government from the one led by Boris Yeltsin to gradually extend its influence and control. It was not hard for Russia to justify its intervention. It simply stated that its citizens were not only at risk but under attack.

7. The West still does not know how to deal with Russia.

Some of the old Cold War arguments are resurfacing, with no consensus about what to do. There are the neo-conservatives, led by US Vice-President Dick Cheney (and supported by Republican presidential candidate John McCain) who see Georgia (and Ukraine) as flag bearers for freedom which must be supported. In due course, they argue, Russia will be forced to change, just as the old Soviet Union was.

Against that is the argument, expressed to the BBC for example on Sunday by the former British Foreign Secretary Lord Owen, that it is "absurd" to treat Russia like the Soviet Union and that Georgia made a miscalculation in South Ossetia for which it is now paying.

8. Are borders in Europe to be sacrosanct for ever?

It has been one of the rules of post-war Europe - borders cannot be changed except by agreement, as say in Czechoslovakia. Perhaps this rule has been applied too inflexibly. Yet governments like that of Georgia are reluctant to give up any territory, even when the local population is so clearly hostile and might be in that state simply as a result of some past arbitrary decision. It was the Soviet Union that created a semi-autonomous region of South Ossetia in Georgia in 1922. Nikita Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. Will this lead to trouble one day?

9. August is good month in which to reflect on alliances.

In August 1914, the First World War broke out following the assassination in June of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. It did so because alliances had been formed in Europe which came into play inexorably. Russia supported Serbia, Germany supported Austria, France supported Russia and Britain came in when Belgium was invaded.

Alliances must not be entered into lightly or unadvisedly. If Georgia had been in Nato, what would have happened?

[Skanda]

Nice picture

[vina]

Well..well.. Unkil trying some deft CYA and H&D recovery act with word play via NYT.

The New York Times
Printer Friendly Format Sponsored By

August 13, 2008
After Mixed Messages and Unheeded Warnings From the U.S., a Conflict Erupts
By HELENE COOPER and THOM SHANKER

WASHINGTON — One month ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Tbilisi, Georgia, for a high-profile visit that was planned to accomplish two very different goals.

During a private dinner on July 9, Ms. Rice’s aides say, she warned President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia not to get into a military conflict with Russia that Georgia could not win. “She told him, in no uncertain terms, that he had to put a non-use of force pledge on the table,” according to a senior administration official who accompanied Ms. Rice to the Georgian capital.

But publicly, Ms. Rice struck a different tone, one of defiant support for Georgia in the face of Russian pressure. “I’m going to visit a friend and I don’t expect much comment about the United States going to visit a friend,” she told reporters just before arriving in Tbilisi, even as Russian jets were conducting intimidating maneuvers over South Ossetia.

In the five days since the simmering conflict between Russia and Georgia erupted into war, Bush administration officials have been adamant in asserting that they warned the government in Tbilisi not to let Moscow provoke it into a fight — and that they were surprised when their advice went unheeded. Right up until the hours before Georgia launched its attack late last week in South Ossetia, Washington’s top envoy for the region, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, and other administration officials were warning the Georgians not to allow the conflict to escalate.

But as Ms. Rice’s two-pronged visit to Tbilisi demonstrates, the accumulation of years of mixed messages may have made the American warnings fall on deaf ears.

The United States took a series of steps that emboldened Georgia: sending advisers to build up the Georgian military, including an exercise last month with more than 1,000 American troops; pressing hard to bring Georgia into the NATO orbit; championing Georgia’s fledgling democracy along Russia’s southern border; and loudly proclaiming its support for Georgia’s territorial integrity in the battle with Russia over Georgia’s separatist enclaves.

But interviews with officials at the State Department, Pentagon and the White House show that the Bush administration was never going to back Georgia militarily in a fight with Russia.

In recent years, the United States has also taken a series of steps that have alienated Russia — including recognizing an independent Kosovo and going ahead with efforts to construct a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. By last Thursday, when the years of simmering conflict exploded into war, Russia had a point to prove to the world, even some administration officials acknowledge, while Georgia may have been under the mistaken impression that in a one-on-one fight with Russia, Georgia would have more concrete American support.

After a meeting at the White House on Tuesday, Ms. Rice emphasized the urgency of bringing the fighting to a halt, rather than how and why it started. But around Washington, there are some rumblings already over whether the crisis might have somehow been headed off.

In a flurry of briefings intended to counter the critics and overcome the impression of having been caught flatfooted, senior Bush administration officials tried to paint a portrait of American reason and calm in the midst of hot tempers in what several called “a hot zone.”

Officials at the White House, State Department and the Pentagon said that President Saakashvili did not officially inform the Bush administration in advance of his offensive — let alone ask for support. “The Georgians figured it was better to ask forgiveness later, but not ask for permission first,” said one administration official. “It was a decision on their part. They knew we would say ‘no.’ ”

But critics say the United States may have given Georgia reason to hope.

Ms. Rice went to Tbilisi just as tensions between Russia and Georgia were escalating. Standing next to Mr. Saakashvili during a press conference, she said that Russia “needs to be a part of resolving the problem and solving the problems and not contributing to it.” Mr. Saakashvili, for his part, was clearly thrilled to host Ms. Rice.

“We are also very grateful for your support for our peace plan for the conflicts and for your unwavering support for Georgia’s territorial integrity,” he said.

Ms. Rice left Tbilisi, but the violence between the Georgians and the South Ossetian separatists continued to get worse, until 10 days ago, when it suddenly escalated. Each side accused the other of setting off the fighting, which began on Aug. 1 and involved mortars, grenade launchers and small-arms fire. Troops from Georgia battled separatist fighters, killing at least six people; the Georgians accuse the South Ossetians of firing at Georgian towns from behind Russian peacekeepers.

By Thursday night, Aug. 7, things had gotten out of hand, almost everyone agrees.

At the State Department in Washington, Mr. Fried, the top envoy for the region, received a phone call on Thursday from Georgia’s foreign minister, Eka Tkeshelashvili, who said the country was under attack. The foreign minister said Georgia had to protect its people.

“We told them they had to keep their unilateral cease-fire,” the official said. “We said, ‘Be smart about this, don’t go in and don’t fall for the Russian provocation. Do not do this.’ ”

Around the same time, members of the Georgia army unit assigned to a training program under American advisers did not show up for the day’s exercises. In retrospect, American officials said, it is obvious that they had been ordered to mobilize for the mission in South Ossetia by their commanders.

“This caught us totally by surprise,” said one military officer who tracks events in the region, including the American-Georgian training effort. “It really knocked us off our chairs.”

Ms. Rice did not get on the phone with her Georgian counterpart on Thursday, but left it to Mr. Fried to deliver the “don’t go in” message, a senior administration official said. “I don’t think it would have made any difference if she had,” the official said. “They knew the message was coming from the top.”

A few hours later, in the early morning hours of Friday, Aug. 8, Georgia launched its offensive in South Ossetia, and Russia responded with a tenfold show of force. Ms. Rice, the administration official said, “called Saakashvili on Friday morning, after their folks were in.”

[Deans]

http://exiledonline.com/war-nerd-south- ... my-dreams/

I love this guy's columns. He's cynical, knows his stuff & usually has things spot on.

The newspaper `Exile' is published by a bunch of expats, who take a tongue in cheek look at life in Russia. Its harmless enough to allow Anti-Russia views to be printed.

[Rahul M]

deans, that is A-class !!
thanks.

The American military’s response so far has been all talk, and pretty damn stupid talk at that. A Pentagon spokes-thingy called Russia’s response “disproportionate.” What the Hell are they talking about? They’ve been watching too many cop shows. Cops have this doctrine of “minimum necessary force,” not that they actually operate that way unless there are video cameras around. Armies never, ever had that policy, because it’s a good way to get your troops killed needlessly. The whole idea in war is to fight as unfairly and disproportionately as possible. If you’ve got it, you use it. Thank God we never fought “proportionately” in Viet Nam. The French tried that, because they never had much of an air force, and got wiped out. By the time the French withdrew from Indochina, their Lefty Prime Minister, Mendes-France, made a big show of promising peace withing 30 days of taking office—and his commanders in Indochina said privately, “I don’t think we can hold out that long.” That’s what fighting “proportionately” gets you: Dien Bien Phu.

[Karan Dixit]

Original NATO members are convinced that both Ukraine and Georgia intend to use NATO membership to further their personal agenda against Russia. Up to this point it was just Germany, Italy and France that opposed their admission into NATO. I am certain that Britain will join that group pretty soon after having seen Georgia in action. It was US alone who was pressing for Georgia and Ukraine's membership into NATO.

NATO members are so glad that Georgia is not the member or else either it would have been the end of the NATO or the nuclear war.

[RayC]

Here is a very interesting analysis from stratfor:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_ge ... ance_power

[hnair]

Vick is right. We cannot do an equal-equal by comparing Iraq with Georgia. For Iraq is a righteous war, and not a border war. Let us wait till some "New & Improved" Pancho Villa rolls into a Texas border town, because the Glorious State of Texas has electrocuted the 100th Hispanic prisoner in a year. I am sure Dick Cheney (Lord bless his shriveled heart!) will switch off his pacemaker and lead a candle light vigil from El Paso to Juarez. Condi will fly to UN to find "consensus" amongst the noble allies and Bush will of course shed a tear for the mommas of the dead Hispanics.

But till then, all can I say to both Russo-philes and US-philes is that these countries care two high-pitched hoots about what we all think. So it is time to throw away that much squeezed tube of "Fair 'n Lovely" and switch to the channel with a Bipasha Basu item number. For if she does good around the world, you do good, whatever be the passport you hold. And remember, the good Lord has said that the meek shall inherit the earth, even if they are not melanin-deprived? And best of all, he said nothing about the dusky Bips!!

We wait. But that doesn't mean that in the meantime we should not try to get discounts on both the super-bug and that rust-bucket Vicky-carrier

[Singha]

black & well muscled is definitely in. denotes energy, mystery and good health.

[Brando]

I've read numerous articles online and they all say that the Russian military operation in South Ossetia has "made" Russia "strong".

I find this absurd! Some crazy retired general on Fox News even claimed that NATO should impose a no-fly zone over Georgia like as if it was Iraq and NATO was up against Saddam Hussein! Is it just me or have all these people forgotten that two decades ago, the Americans feared that the Russians would roll their tanks across Europe and nuke their cities!

Today, however, when the Russian military conducts a minor operation a few hundred kilometers past its border into a largely lawless region in a minuscule country, they have suddenly become "strong". Weren't they always "strong" or do the dullards who write for the news media in Europe and America really think that this Russian operation took any "strength" to perform?

[Lalmohan]

there is a contagious disease out there... first the pakis thought that they'd brought a super power to their knees single handedly and therefore they were masters of the universe. similarly a number of now retired generals and diplomats thought that they'd managed the world towards a brand new order to their own design and that all would now be well for a thousand years and that everyone else would forever be humbled and tow the line... the complacency of victory

the real world is somewhat more complex

[Gerard]

Violence flares in Georgian town

Violence has flared up in Georgia, where Russian tanks have been seen patrolling the town of Gori, says the BBC's Gavin Hewitt near the scene. One witness told the BBC he saw a convoy of Russian vehicles on the road to the Georgian capital Tbilisi.

According to BBC's Garwin Hewitt, the Russian tanks are busy destroying Georgian military bases in Gori area. Their Ossetian allies are however busy looting, torching houses and robbing people at gunpoint.

[Singha]

meantime off to the west...

Abkhazian fighters plant flag inside Georgia

By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 15 minutes ago

GANMUKHURI, Georgia - An AP reporter says a few dozen fighters from the separatist region of Abkhazia have moved into Georgian territory, planting their flag on a bridge over the Inguri River.

"This is Abkhazian land," one proclaimed. They say they are laying claim to what has historically been Abkhazian territory and that Georgian troops left without challenging them.

The fighters had moved across a thin slice of land dotted with Georgian villages.

"The border has been along this river for 1,000 years," separatist official Ruslan Kishmaria told AP on Wednesday. He said Georgia would have to accept the new border and taunted the departed Georgian forces by saying they had received "American training in running away."

[Singha]

my prediction that Gori would be made an example of has come true.

georgia army is a confused rabble at the moment camped around Tbilisi
and awaiting any type of leadership. I think most of their tanks and APCs
are gone or unuseable from battle use, all they have are trucks and
small arms.

[enqyoob]

There are reports that the "Russian Irregulars" are moving through the "liberated" villages and towns, doing their specialties like in East Germany 1945. Also, that the remaining Georgians are being sorted and flitered through "internment camps" according to the GoonBoss Shaakashvili (of course he also claimed to have shot down 18,000,000 Russian planes and 270,000,000 Russian tanks and is winning the war). The American training at Fort Benning or wherever they train these foreign tinpot Harvard dictators, seems to include the classic textbook "Propetic War Reporting" by Field Marshal Yahya Khan.

[Singha]

per reports there is no sign of any georgian army presence in the stretch Gori-Tbilsi.
the army camped outside the city seems to have either melted away or redeployed
further to the east. the ossetian and chechen militias are probably letting loose
a reign of terror on the villages now, looting and burning.

meantime...

Russian armored column heading toward Tbilisi from Gori

A column of Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) on Wednesday left Gori and headed in the direction of the Georgian capital Tbilisi, an AFP journalist witnessed. (UPDATED)

The convoy, comprised of about 60 tanks, APCs and other vehicles, was seen 10 kilometers (six miles) outside Gori heading in the direction of Tbilisi, the journalist said.

Russian soldiers leaned out of the windows of the trucks shouting "Tbilisi! Tbilisi!" and waving Russian flags.

The trucks were loaded with tents and supplies.

Gori lies about 75 kilometers from Tbilisi.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili earlier on Wednesday accused Russian tanks still present inside the Georgian town of Gori of destroying buildings and shooting at people.

"Russian tanks have moved into Gori. They have destroyed buildings, there has been looting by Russian troops. They were shooting people," he added in a conference call with reporters.

"They were looting, taking furniture, toilet seats, computers, anything of value," he added.

Russia on Tuesday called a halt to its military operations against Georgia, which centered on the Moscow-backed rebel region of South Ossetia, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy engaged in negotiations with both sides to agree a peace plan.