Pranav-ji
Pakistan is in deep Pakistan. US involvement or not. You heard it first here*: Pakistan needs assistance atleast for a decade or more for its economy to *survive*. I said *survive* not *flourish*. The only way they are going to be able to extricate themselves from this mess is
1. Huge capital spending on infrastructure and capacity building to (a) employ their population in the projects and to (b) reap the increase in productivity due to new infrastructure. But the main stumbling block is that debt servicing** and defence is eating up all their excess capital. That leaves only the FDI route -- but there has been no example of a foreign company investing in infrastructure & reaping rewards (well there is that UAE company that took over for PTCL for a pittance, but lets leave that aside

) There is real danger of their engineers getting soosai-ed
2. Increasing farm productivity & taxing it. Currently there is no incentive to increase productivity (because of large individual holding) and proposals for taxing it is not going anywhere.
3. Investing in Education & Energy (the less said the better) to open up other sectors. But this will take a decade or more!
The only 3 people who will pretty much give Pakistan money for free for 10 years are
(a) The Chinese, to use Pakis as a proxy against India
(b) The middle easterners.
(c) The Amreekis.
It is clear that (b) & (c) would want something in return. Well there is some rumor of Pakistan's nuclear umbrella for the Saudis. But if the price of oil increases the Saudis are going to be hard pressed to find their generosity. UAE is scaling down its foreign infrastructure projects, because *they* are in deep pakistan due to overbuilding at home. The only option left is for the middle easterners to buy up large tracts of farm land to ensure their food security. Which they *will* do (either in Africa or in Pakistan) before their oil dries up. But that is a temporary steroid shot. Methinks it will add an interesting new dimension to "India stealing water

" but that is for later. That leaves Unkil.
Ofcourse, all this analysis gets modified much if Unkil decides to whack Iran.
*One of my non-BRFite economist friends gave impressive arguments based on figures and facts. Maybe I will get him to sign up and post here, or I will steal it and post it here
**Next round of getting their debt forgiven is going to be hard. EU and US are in deep Pakistan with domestic debt problems. Japan's productivity increase has stalled. Pakistan has already been forgiven for their debt once, but nothing came out of it. So getting another forgiveness will be hard.