Paul wrote:Ssridharji, It is too early to predict that the going will be smooth from now on for TSP.
Paul ji, I didn't mean it that way. It is a fact that TSP chooses a difficult path for itself because it is willing to cut its very nose to spite what it considers Indian face. So, it has been on a continuous downward spiral from the time it passed the Lahore resolution. At times, the downward spiral had been faster and at other times slower, nevertheless a downward spiral it has been. So, the going is never going to be smoother. What I meant was that it has staved off, like many times before, what looked like another 1971, probably even much more ominous than that. That kind of direct existential threat has passed off, at least for now.
NS in his earlier terms fell out with GIK first time and Mushy secondtime. His record is unpredictable as how who he will go with. The action this time could be in Sindh where MQM and PPP are with out chairs this time and the battleground may move there if Sindhi nationalism starts to resurface.
You are right about Nawaz Sharif. He is capable of digging his own grave. He is authoritarian, corrupt, and a supporter of jihadis and very violent sectarian elements. He has no faith in institutions as his handling of CJP Sajid Ali Shah showed. He wanted to crown himself to be the Caliph in c. 1998 when he had the brutal majority. These streaks of him will not take long to resurface and might lead to clashes especially when he does not have the kind of majority as he got in c. 1997.
But, I have another take on the Sindh or mohajir nationalism and how it might be tackled now. In his first term, Nawaz Sharif handled the mohajir violence with an iron hand in Karachi and set up ATC courts with sweeping military powers to prosecute them. Later, in his second term, he appointed a mohajir as his COAS hoping he would thus placate the alienated mohajirs and also protect his flanks because he thought that a mohajir without a power base would not resort to an army coup, especially when he had been elevated overlooking three Pashtun & Punjabi Generals. It did not work in the end. So, Nawaz Sharif might have learnt some lessons.
He would probably choose a Punjabi general this time to take over from Kayani in September, 2013. More than that, I expect that Nawaz Sharif would use his powerful jihadi friends to tackle the mohajirs in Karachi, Hyderabad and urban Sindh. The TTP is today as equally strong in the Sind as the mohajirs. The peace talks are already on by GoP, PA, KP provincial government etc. That way, Nawaz Sharif would not get a bad name unlike last time.
As for PPP, it will not pose any worthwhile threat to Nawaz Sharif in the Sind. Zardari would have to hurriedly exit TSP on the last day of his Presidency because any delay would land him in jail. His son Bilawal would be in a self-imposed exile and would not have the guts to return to TSP any time soon. PPP is in complete disarray.
Key Question is how long will NS army ceasefire last??? Even the anti India bogey is not enough to paper their differences here.
NS was quick to fire the first salvo against the PA as soon as the election results were announced, claiming that the PA must be subservient to his civilian rule. He hoped that in the exuberance of the first successful democratic transition in their wreteched country, this would be accepted. His further statements on India alarmed the PA and Kayani had to meet him and remind him to go slow over India. NS wants some leeway from the PA against India as he understands that if at all any country can do something to alleviate the deep economic and structural problems in TSP, it is India and India alone. The politician's instincts are to look for votes in the next elections. But, the PA may not be so forthcoming. This is going to be a very difficult tightrope walk for NS because he has to lift TSP's economy from the morass. Let's wait and watch. GoI can exploit the situation beautifully but it is too timid to play for even moderate stakes.
Karzai called Pakistan a brother and India a close friend . . .
I do not think we should parse every statement too minutely. These statements are made in various contexts for various reasons. We should see the overall thrust of policies and actions.
Surely the time is ripe for the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to implement the "Koranic Science" idea’s of former Director of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood, who propounded the theory that Jinn’s / Djinn’s / Djinni’s / Genies could be tapped for energy 
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