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Dilbuji .... need youAtmavik wrote:
SHQ’s family is from lakhimpur , large turnout of sanghis is reported
+108Yagnasri wrote:No one other than Dilbuji has a right to do dhothi shivers.
Yes, it is always difficult to get a 75% majority in such a large election. But if the detailed analyses done by Shawn Jay and others are on the money (i.e. average 45 seats to BJP in each phase), then the party will cross 300 on its own again.Yagnasri wrote:The question seems to be whether BJP on its own cross 300 or not. A bit difficult task.
I second that. Other unauthentic anti-jinx attempts may have a "cancellation" effect on the original one.chetak wrote:+108Yagnasri wrote:No one other than Dilbuji has a right to do dhothi shivers.
who is this Shawn Jay. some details would be appreciated onlee.KL Dubey wrote:Yes, it is always difficult to get a 75% majority in such a large election. But if the detailed analyses done by Shawn Jay and others are on the money (i.e. average 45 seats to BJP in each phase), then the party will cross 300 on its own again.Yagnasri wrote:The question seems to be whether BJP on its own cross 300 or not. A bit difficult task.
they know it's good for Ayodhya. But they are communal peopleUttar Pradesh (UP)’s Ayodhya, the shopkeepers are upset. Their shops will be demolished to widen the road as part of a renovation design. Who will you vote for, I ask them. “Vote toh BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] ko padega, without Modi-ji and Yogi-ji, there would be no Ram Temple. Aastha [faith] bhi important hai!” is the telling response.
why do they need security? Akhilesh and his gangs can rape/harass ... But do you vote for this kind of stupidity?In a village near Kanpur, farmers from the Kurmi community are complaining about rising diesel prices and the stray cattle menace, but indicate that their vote is with BJP. “Yogi-ji’s government is giving us free ration for months now,” is their reasoning. Not surprisingly, the ration packets carry pictures of chief minister (CM) Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi.
Switch to urban Lucknow where the city’s youth is hanging out on a food street. Many of them are troubled by the lack of jobs. So, who will they vote for? “I would like to give the Yogi government one more chance, at least women’s security is now better, and I can move around after 7 pm,” says a software engineer.
no caste wars ... what a sad news!While crisscrossing the Awadh belt of central UP, the country’s most populous and politically influential state remains a puzzling bundle of contradictions.
This isn’t the turbulent 1990s where caste and community identity “wars” were fought with frenetic zeal. There is disquiet over the tough times during the pandemic, but anxiety hasn’t turned into anger
Second, the BJP has invested heavily in astute social engineering over the past seven years. It has built a new power structure where non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs) have become the party’s engine. This has led to friction at the leadership level between the upper-caste elites and the more recent entrants, but it has also meant that the party has a much wider social base than its competitors.
they are performing ... But but ... who votes based on performance? why? why do you do that?Third, the flagship welfarist schemes of the Modi-Yogi “double engine” have created a pro-poor image that may enable the party to tide over price rise and creeping discontent against its MLAs. For example, the PM-Kisan launched in February 2019 assures farmers an income of ₹6,000 per year over three instalments. UP has the highest number of beneficiaries (25 million): It is this vast pool of beneficiaries of cash transfers and free rations that is at the heart of the BJP’s political outreach.
all media management ... just media managementFourth, the media is tightly controlled by the government’s bureaucratic machine so that no negative news can become a sustained prime time narrative, be it dead bodies floating in the Ganga during the Covid-19 second wave (2021), alleged ministerial corruption, the Hathras rape and murder case, or the Lakhimpur mowing down of protesting farmers by a VIP cavalcade
+108KL Dubey wrote:I second that. Other unauthentic anti-jinx attempts may have a "cancellation" effect on the original one.chetak wrote:
+108
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7881&p=2534172&hili ... y#p2534172chetak wrote: who is this Shawn Jay. some details would be appreciated onlee.
TIA
Much obliged, Dubey ji.KL Dubey wrote:viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7881&p=2534172&hili ... y#p2534172chetak wrote: who is this Shawn Jay. some details would be appreciated onlee.
TIA
It seems Congress is also despondent about the results. My conclusion based on voter turnout that Congress is defeated is confirmed by their own assessment.ramana wrote:Average trunout in Punjab was 71.92%
In Majha, in 12/26 seats the turnout is below the average. Amritsar West #16 was lowest at 55.40%.
- This means about half the seats, turnout was less than average
In Doaba 17/23 seats were below average with the lowest in Jalandhar Central #35 at 60.65%
- This means more than half the seats, turnout was less than average.
In Malwa, 15/67 seats had below average with Ludhiana South #61 at 59.04%
- This means only in 1/4 of the seats, the turnout was less than the average.
Political experts say that voter turnout increases when the incumbent is thrown out. By this axiom, Malwa and Majha will see Congress defeated in many seats.
Doaba is an enigma.
And who will be the winners is for locals to say about these seats.
It's worth posting entire article for our experts to look into.
An internal assessment carried out by the Congress on the polling pattern in the recently concluded Punjab elections has shown that the party may get only 40 of the 117 seats in the assembly elections.
The party has been carrying out constituency-wise assessment for the past few days, after low polling percentage made predicting outcome of the polls complicated and uncertain.
I didn't know the voter turnout in the AAP dominant seats also fell. It indcates they also, did not get the mandate.In the politically significant Malwa region, which had emerged as stronghold for AAP, the voter turnout was disappointing. Of the 28 assembly constituencies falling under south Malwa’s seven districts, 50% seats witnessed more than a 5% point drop in the voter turnout compared to 2017 polls.
....
But data suggests otherwise. Abohar and Ferozepur City were the only segments in the region which saw a rise in polling by 3.71% and 1.25%, respectively. Nihal Singh Wala constituency held by AAP’s Manjit Singh Bilaspur recorded a drop of 7.85%, the biggest in the region. It was followed by Ferozepur Rural, being represented by Congress’ Satkar Kaur Gehri, where 7.33% less votes were polled than last elections.
Leaders attributed it to factors ranging from disillusionment with the poll process to low participation of NRIs in the process. “The pandemic, coupled with high air fares, acted as a deterrent to these voters. During last time, a big chunk of our votes came from this segment," said a senior AAP leader.
All these US/Canadian NRIs did not travel this year due to Covid.ramana wrote:I didn't know the voter turnout in the AAP dominant seats also fell. It indcates they also, did not get the mandate.In the politically significant Malwa region, which had emerged as stronghold for AAP, the voter turnout was disappointing. Of the 28 assembly constituencies falling under south Malwa’s seven districts, 50% seats witnessed more than a 5% point drop in the voter turnout compared to 2017 polls.
....
But data suggests otherwise. Abohar and Ferozepur City were the only segments in the region which saw a rise in polling by 3.71% and 1.25%, respectively. Nihal Singh Wala constituency held by AAP’s Manjit Singh Bilaspur recorded a drop of 7.85%, the biggest in the region. It was followed by Ferozepur Rural, being represented by Congress’ Satkar Kaur Gehri, where 7.33% less votes were polled than last elections.
Leaders attributed it to factors ranging from disillusionment with the poll process to low participation of NRIs in the process. “The pandemic, coupled with high air fares, acted as a deterrent to these voters. During last time, a big chunk of our votes came from this segment," said a senior AAP leader.
It will be like J&K in 2014.
Sure it’s a possibility. But my main points were thay the parties are thinking very differently, and also the narrow margins to also watch was not only difference of seats but also average margin of victory )how many votes did the candidate win by) in an assembly.ramana wrote:Most predictions say UKD is narrow margins
.True Devbhoomi needs a Yogi. BC Khanduri was a stalwart and did very well in NDA1 cabinet. Not sure why he was removed as CM. BJP tried to do damage control towards the end and brought him back as CM. But it was too late. Dhami does not inspire much confidence. The one good thing he did was keep Govt hands away from Char Dhaam.vimal wrote:It’s sad BJP never found a strong leader in UKD. Maybe they should make Yogi a joint CM given that he’s originally from UKD
Devabhoomi needs a yogi!
It is amazing that we are talking 300+ again. The mood was very bad after 4th phase with voting percentage at 60% or lower in most places.Yagnasri wrote:The question seems to be whether BJP on its own cross 300 or not. A bit difficult task.
BC Khandurie was the last hope IMHO for UKD. Everyone else is a joker.Santosh wrote:True Devbhoomi needs a Yogi. BC Khanduri was a stalwart and did very well in NDA1 cabinet. Not sure why he was removed as CM. BJP tried to do damage control towards the end and brought him back as CM. But it was too late. Dhami does not inspire much confidence. The one good thing he did was keep Govt hands away from Char Dhaam.vimal wrote:It’s sad BJP never found a strong leader in UKD. Maybe they should make Yogi a joint CM given that he’s originally from UKD
Devabhoomi needs a yogi!
why was BC Khandurie removed then and also his son joined the congisvimal wrote:BC Khandurie was the last hope IMHO for UKD. Everyone else is a joker.Santosh wrote: True Devbhoomi needs a Yogi. BC Khanduri was a stalwart and did very well in NDA1 cabinet. Not sure why he was removed as CM. BJP tried to do damage control towards the end and brought him back as CM. But it was too late. Dhami does not inspire much confidence. The one good thing he did was keep Govt hands away from Char Dhaam.
It was the last report that cost him his job as head of MoD parliamentary committee. It was on defence preparedness and his stance led him to being fired - I believe the first chairman to be fired since independence.ramana wrote:I always used to look forward to his Parliamentary Committee annual reports on MoD.