India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

Jaybhatt · Post by **Jaybhatt** » 29 Nov 2011 20:51

My good friends who have commented on the Swiss preference posts : it is important to know why the Swiss evaluators have arrived at their conclusions (or their stated conclusions). We should not brush aside a rigorous evaluation process like the one that the Swiss Air Force has undertaken.

The Swiss banking and financial industry is hopelessly corrupt and venal, as we all know. However, when it comes to their national security, this mountain lot never compromise. Otherwise, they would not have been able to retain their independence for so many centuries (remember the William Tell story ?).

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 29 Nov 2011 21:16

To begin with how rigorous was the Swiss Eval. They neither have deserts, extremly humid areas or very high alt air fields. Apart from the evaluated contenders they have little parallel with our evaluation. Swiss eval has no bearing on how IAF eval'd them. IAF's eval is by far the most thorough eval conducted so far. The proposed pricing and versions being offered to us are also better. The only thing Swiss is important for is that if it breaks the cycle of 0 Rafale exports. However, that too is a big question considering other contenders are cheaper and the Swiss hardly have any serious security challenges. They remain neutral and do not participate in anything but excercises. With French history of screwing up Raffy deals, we can be almost sure they'll screw this one up too.

sanjeevpunj · Post by **sanjeevpunj** » 29 Nov 2011 21:22

Jaybhatt wrote:My good friends who have commented on the Swiss preference posts : it is important to know why the Swiss evaluators have arrived at their conclusions (or their stated conclusions). We should not brush aside a rigorous evaluation process like the one that the Swiss Air Force has undertaken.

The Swiss banking and financial industry is hopelessly corrupt and venal, as we all know. However, when it comes to their national security, this mountain lot never compromise. Otherwise, they would not have been able to retain their independence for so many centuries (remember the William Tell story ?).

Tell was my hero from childhood.I remember he had kept another bolt ready in case he did not manage to shoot the apple,and shot his son instead, he would use the other bolt on Gessler.Eventually he killed Gessler anyway,and sparked a revolution.

manum · Post by **manum** » 29 Nov 2011 21:53

Septimus P. wrote:To begin with how rigorous was the Swiss Eval. They neither have deserts, extremly humid areas or very high alt air fields. Apart from the evaluated contenders they have little parallel with our evaluation. Swiss eval has no bearing on how IAF eval'd them. IAF's eval is by far the most thorough eval conducted so far. The proposed pricing and versions being offered to us are also better. The only thing Swiss is important for is that if it breaks the cycle of 0 Rafale exports. However, that too is a big question considering other contenders are cheaper and the Swiss hardly have any serious security challenges. They remain neutral and do not participate in anything but excercises. With French history of screwing up Raffy deals, we can be almost sure they'll screw this one up too.

However rigorous or less rigorous it was...Singapore has benefit of using french airspace and have a close knit deal with them...so be rest assured its Rafale only with Singapore...

UAE nobody knows what they are evaluating and why they need fighters...and why their requirements are so stringent, they'll realize later typhoon wont fall easy to them as well...family fiefdom you see, balance of mind tilts with Turban...typhoon guys would also wonder, how we quote the price and be called better than dessault to a nation who doesn't even intends to absorb the technology...

none of above examples correspond to Indian scene...

Boreas · Post by **Boreas** » 29 Nov 2011 22:10

sanjeevpunj wrote:If I am born again, next life I want to be an IAF Pilot.At least I would be flying a Rafale then, if not this life(assuming we go for Rafale eventually).

21-25 years from now.. dude aim higher dream for pakfa/amca

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 29 Nov 2011 22:21

The swiss should decide tomorrow, here is the composition of the council that must decide :

the Swiss Federal Council: those who should decide tomorrow (or December 7):

-Micheline Calmy-Rey (president, french-speaking)
-Simonetta Sommaruga (italian-speaking)
-Doris Leuthard (german-speaking)
-Didier Burkhalter(german-speaking)
-Johann N. Schneider-Ammann (german-speaking)
-Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf (german/italian-speaking)
-Ueli Maurer (defence minister, german-speaking)
-Corina Casanova (chancellor, speaks Romansh, German, French and Italian)

What we know:
-After the technical evaluation, Armasuisse recommend Rafale.
-Ueli maurer is said to favor the Gripen.
-France may have a problem with Doris Leuthard, Sarkozy promised her, when she was president, to associate Switzerland to the G20 process. Not only he did not, but his statements at the end of g20 ,about Switzerland being an "off-the-law" state, shocked...

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/sh ... ws/page178

Boreas · Post by **Boreas** » 29 Nov 2011 22:57

^^ours will be out by next week as well. gosh! life defining weeks for eads/dassault

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Nov 2011 23:17

I would say thread defining time ahead in few weeks.

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 29 Nov 2011 23:26

Singapore can use US air space too considering they are user of the F-16. Furthermore, F-15 won the competition already, Rafale lost the old competition. F-15SG is a kick ass fighter. UAE, well they wanted Rafale but now they'll end up ordering more Block 60's and probably EF.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Nov 2011 23:32

How likely is Dassault merging with EADS in the future? let us economy driven priorities.

Boreas · Post by **Boreas** » 29 Nov 2011 23:44

Point is what will they sell after merging?

Rafale and EF are competitors, and past them neither of these companies have any new fighter in pipeline nor do they have money to invest in a new project. And lastly even if they want they don't have time to start working on a fifth gen design and deliver something in time for it to stay relevant.

For them to merge.. one of them have to come up with a really promising UCAV concept and other with something which the first don't have (say a lot of money or stealth tech!).

Septimus P. wrote:Singapore can use US air space too considering they are user of the F-16. Furthermore, F-15 won the competition already, Rafale lost the old competition. F-15SG is a kick ass fighter. UAE, well they wanted Rafale but now they'll end up ordering more Block 60's and probably EF.

Whatever was said and done in UAE is pretty much a negotiation stunt, It is either to make french trouser wet to make them pull the prize bar down or else maybe some arab's ego got hurt by white-colors of dassault and he decided to teach them a little lesson.

In either case it is managable and deal won't be called off.

koti · Post by **koti** » 29 Nov 2011 23:45

@SaiK
They tried something similar some 15 years ago.... It failed.
So I don't see that as a possibility.

Lets see what the Euro Debt crises does to that.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Nov 2011 23:58

BAE-Dassault I read has joint project for UAV.. if Dassault wins Indian MMRCA, they can see bright future.. with some of their technologies being shared with FGFA as well. Now that entirely depends on the needs, and how much dependent we are on the tech front for MKIzing the PAKFA.

If EADS gets it, then Dassault will face big problems to survive.. and if they also go into poor rating and reduce them from AAA status, then it would be very likely they will change their attitude. After all, there are many who wish for that to happen on French attitude issues.

We can bear their attitude against what? sometimes, economic situations can do impossible things happen.

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 30 Nov 2011 01:06

Saik,

Good question, the European industrial landscape is a nightmare! Unfortunately a merge between EADS or Cassiadian and Dassault Aviation will not occur in the 20 years to come.

Actually, France needs to merge Safran and Thales, but also Zodiac, Dassault etc... to create a french big player. Cconsidering how much they hate each others, It will take years.

Then, today Dassault is more looking toward BAE than Cassiadian for future cooperation (they follow the political will, it may change). Even if EADS owns 49% of Dassault aviation, this stake is in reality own by the French State and should not be linked to a possible further cooperation. It can change tomorrow like MDBA, sometimes french state, sometimes EADS... at the end the boss is the gov.

But Dassault is a family business always looking for long term strategies to remain independant, and the fact is that actually they don't need help. Dassault Aviation alone is sleeping on more than 4 billion dollars of cash and is still a very profitable company. The Group also did well with Dassault Systemes, its softwares are used by all major manufacturers. Today Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Lockheed Martin etc. ... build all their civil and military planes with DS softwares such as CATIA. This is a very strong commercial position and with Rafale exports or not, Dassault is wealthy and don't need to move toward EADS or anyone else.

The future of Cassidian is more a concern. France is not involved, Britain is not really happy with partnerships including more than two countries, and the Geman, for obvious political reasons, will never buy more A400M or typhoon to save a military company...

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 30 Nov 2011 02:14

Whatever was said and done in UAE is pretty much a negotiation stunt, It is either to make french trouser wet to make them pull the prize bar down or else maybe some arab's ego got hurt by white-colors of dassault and he decided to teach them a little lesson.

In either case it is managable and deal won't be called off.[/quote]

If UAE was a stunt, well EF wouldn't have recieved a RFP. Now looking at the deal in Swiss Rafale seems to be more expensive, EADS can make it very juicy for UAE to win by offering better terms. Eitherway due to the negative exp. with Rafale, it is least likely to win. EF has a lot more chances. Plus RFP might have been sent to US as well. Dassault will continue to mess it up for Rafale.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 30 Nov 2011 02:27

More detail about the swiss evaluation which might interest some :

Yesterday saw the official media day for the Eurofighter Typhoon. Most of the articles are in German or French so I will give a short summery of the events.
Armasuisse project leader Jürg Weber gave details for the evaluation criteria for the first time yesterday. The factor operational performance will be weighted 60 %, the in-service aspects 15 % and the industrial cooperation package 25 %.
Those 60% for the operational performance are divided into 50% A2A capabilities, 20% A2G, 20 % RECCE and 10 % growth potential.
All participants had to go through the same evaluation:
Eleven flights were conducted by the Swiss Air Force to assess operational capabilities, while 13 flights were done by armasuisse to evaluate technical issues. Two flights were done for noise measurements.
One of the Air Force test included a intercept mission at M1.5+, a Swizz F18 flew at high level with M1.5 and the participants had to climb to the same height and intercept the F-18 as early as possible.
For now it seems that the number of jets in question is down to 22 aircraft plus equipment.
Switzerland will ask for a second refined bid early next year and as a second request, they will give a budget and leave it to industry to suggest the optimal package.

rafale heads the 60% part of the competition about operational performance. Will it be enough to win the swiss order ?
It is worth mentioning that AtA was the most important factor for the swiss and the rafale still won.

It is also interesting to remark that the rafale won all the technical evaluations it took part (korea,singapore, dutch*, brazil and swiss one)...Waiting for more precision on the indian competition as there are conflicting sources.

*very close second to the F35 in the dutch evaluation but far ahead the typhoon and the rest of the competition.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 30 Nov 2011 02:35

^^^so, dassault sitting pretty seems to be the reason then.. if it is entirely technical, I think there is a bit tilt towards Rafale. If it is going to be political decision, then I am afraid dassault may not enjoy the decision to be made.

if the above is true, then the more interesting aspect is that EADS is more likely to close shop in the near future than Rafale (even without a single export order). It is very interesting they are sitting on a pile of money.. sure, it is not entirely from Rafale sales, but from other products Dassault sells.

The probability Rafale can become further costlier and stand alone along with French business. Very few nations will chose Rafale if it loses India. The fish bone is clear for them. Rafale is clearly vulnerable though sitting pretty.

OTOH, EADS has nothing to lose.. they can show their trump and finesse.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 30 Nov 2011 03:28

The situation is a bit more complex as it can seem at first glance as far as the swiss competition is concerned.

Yes the rafale is the clear leader of the swiss technical evaluation and preferred option of the airforce but politics (starting by swiss min def) and some swiss industry are pushing for the gripen due to its costs and possibility to codevelop it.

Fearing ending up with the least capable aircraft the swiss airforce "organized" several leaks in the swiss press (reported on this very thread a few posts above). The hereunder article is about the reaction of some swiss politics to those leaks who are wondering if they can opt for a fighter that did not met basic requirements and that performs even worst than the much older F18 that the swiss air force currently operate and who served as a benchmark in the technical evaluations.

"I expect that the new fighter is better than the F/A-18 '
Basler Zeitung, Nov 29

Pilot and SVP National Council Thomas Hurter says in an interview why the federal government should choose a fighter jet, which is better than existing aircraft.
[...]
Is that not a little bit late? Maurer has announced clearly that he brings the decision already tomorrow to the Federal Council.

That is not a problem. The Federal council must justify either way its decision and put the facts on the table. If it selects the airplane with the worst performance profile, then the government must explain, why it decided in such a way. Then the Federal Council must say for example that it selects the aircraft because of the price. Or because of the training possibilities abroad. Finally the decision is a package decision. If the Federal council should select a type, which is worse than the F/A-18, then I am convinced that the parliament will not discuss the credits [?]
[...]

http://bazonline.ch/schweiz/standard/Ic ... y/27924580

So most likely Ulli Mauer (swiss mindef) will suggest the gripen despite the technical evaluation favorable to the rafale tomorrow due to its advantageous costs. Then it is not certain that the council will vote for the gripen as the above article suggest. So in the end it will be quite a tight race between the gripen and rafale with a lot of suspense !! We could well have a gripen announcement tomorrow and then a vote of the council for the rafale...

At least the honor is safe for the rafale as it succeeded in the operational tests but of course what "honor" means in such competitions ?

Taygibay · Post by **Taygibay** » 30 Nov 2011 03:32

@Septimus_P

I generally agree that Arthuro is heavy-handed on that Swiss contest
but it would help your point tremendously not to make such mistakes
as saying :

We also know Raffy is the most expensive one

especially when I took the time to translate it earlier, i.e. :
Gripen 3 millions, Ef 4 M and Rafale in between as reported by Armasuisse"

About Dassault being bought by EADS, it is jolly folly.
The reason why theRafale was designed as omnirole
is French national independence. The govt would not
allow it in any way, shape or form.
The ownership of Dassault shares goes to the French
part of EADS.
Dassault is also a very profitable company with money
stashed as the mili activity is secondary to the others
which include BizJets but also the world top design CATIA
and shares in Thales and Veolia amongst many :
http://www.armement.ead-minerve.fr/co/m ... ent_2.html

Besides, it might help you people to know who owns
the majority of shares in EADS, namely the French,
German and Spanish govts as can be found here :

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... re-344475/

As far as Eurofighter Gmbh, Wiki tells us that it goes :

46%: EADS split two ways so :
33% EADS Deutschland GmbH (Germany)
13% EADS CASA (Spain)
33%: BAE Systems (United Kingdom)
21%: Alenia Aeronautica (Italy)

So before anyone tells anyone how things go or will,
getting your facts right would be nice.

Sorry for the call but we loose our time often repeating
false or dubious stuff.

Good day all, Tay.

MarcH · Post by **MarcH** » 30 Nov 2011 04:25

We all know why the Swiss prefer the Rafale. Training in warm Southern France is way more appealing then training in cold north-eastern Germany.

By the way the Swiss are a bit miffed about German measures against the tax evasion services offered by Swiss banks to German citizens.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Nov 2011 05:36

France is under the scanner now. The global bankers are blackmailing France on all the deals it has with other countries so that French/Sarkozy fall in line with the global Oligarchy.

This is a big thing

Danell · Post by **Danell** » 30 Nov 2011 06:11

France ? what are you talking about ?
If Rafale wins MMRCA, there will be financial flows issued by a state called "Republic of India" (rated BB+) to private French firms.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 30 Nov 2011 06:20

which is fine.. I think France has built Rafale as national treasure like we did LCA. They had more experience and expertise with least brain drain problem, while we are still building with a high brain drain factor with meager inputs.

at the end of day, still a buyer would choose best a/c, and at reduced cost.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Nov 2011 10:13

Danell wrote:France ? what are you talking about ?
If Rafale wins MMRCA, there will be financial flows issued by a state called "Republic of India" (rated BB+) to private French firms.

You think he has over 10,000 posts just like that? Have you wondered why the envelopes were opened but no decision yet. Its some game going on.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Nov 2011 12:08

The final outcome is based on a joint decision with the Oligarchy from outside who will allow the players into India based on their global standing within the club. India has to protect its interest or ditch. But by opening the store India has shown that it wants to play with the global oligarchy which is breaking aprt now. The new generation of the oligarchy will include the Indian MNCs and asian clones

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 30 Nov 2011 12:15

if that is true chaiwala speak then it should be kept as advantage Indian MNC till the word is out/bang for the buck. Now the toss need not be made, as the biskoot has arrived. where is that rakesh bhai's favorite bollywood actress?

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 30 Nov 2011 16:00

You can kiss F-35 offer speculation over:

India denies NATO Missile Defence and F-35 offers

koti · Post by **koti** » 30 Nov 2011 16:05

^^

There is a speculation that the US led NATO had asked for basing a radar on the Indian territory, which could close some gaps in NATO Missile defence Shield with respect to Chinese airspace.

Won't we benefit from this in anyway?

I mean we can negotiate to have the radars under our control and feed them only the data of Chinese territory.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Nov 2011 16:14

Acharya, will the indian oligarchs based in london be a facilitator for bringing India inside the tent?

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 30 Nov 2011 18:16

The Swiss gov has chosen the Gripen NG this morning.

koti · Post by **koti** » 30 Nov 2011 18:32

^^
http://translate.google.com/translate?s ... 2011-11-30

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 30 Nov 2011 19:04

The Swiss decision is a huge defeat for both France and Dassault. The Rafale was more than welcome by the swiss army and the industry. The only point was political but the french president had the very good idea to insult Switzerland during the G20... again well done Mr Sarkozy!

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 30 Nov 2011 19:45

Blick.ch as was told by insiders, that the Federal council wants to buy the Swedish Gripen fighter. The government is following the application of VBS chief Ueli Maurer . The Gripen is the cheapest of the three jets available for selection.
[...]
The selection of Gripen provides already critics from the "military/politicians" ."The Air Force needs the best fighter", says SVP-man Roland Borer - this is not for him the cheap Gripen. "It did not succeed technically "reffering to confidential evaluation reports that were leaked to the media in recent days.

Borer attacks even his fellow party Maurer directly: "If the responsible boss decides to buy a product that did not succeed, it is not responsible!".Borer wants to draw “the conclusions” at the elections of the new Federal council from 14 December and lets see through that he will refuse his voice to Maurer. “And I am not the only one who think in such a way. "

http://www.blick.ch/news/politik/bundes ... fen-188443

as said yesterday swiss decision should be voted before validating a purchase. Many swiss politician do not understand the choice of an aircraft that did not met the minimum requirements.

Taygibay · Post by **Taygibay** » 30 Nov 2011 19:53

Complete translation does not say exactly the same!

The original text speaks of possible gripping in the
possible buy of the Gripen.
In a nutshell,
the Council would have chosen the Gripen
Uli Mauer would have pressed for it on price account
according to sources related to the tender
and this :

Pilot and SVP National Assemblyman Thomas Hurter requires in addition in a letter to Ueli Mauer a clarification of the circumstances. Yesterday in an interview with day indicator / news net the Schaffhauser expressed, he is convinced that the parliament will not vote the credits for the aeroplane purchase if the Bundesrat should select a type which is worse than F/A-18.

http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/sta ... y/28653803

So let's wait and see.

This being said, there are very important aspects to this news.
One, the Gripen is the most logical economic choice.
Two, the Gripen is the least logical military choice.
Three, the cooperation basis is better with the Gripen* but do remember
that it concerns the C/D version not the NG.
The proposition goes for the later upgrade to NG electronics/EWS type.
It does not include a full NG type conversion as the cells would not bear it.
Last, the present buy should be followed by the acquisition of more planes
to replace the F-18s in addition to the F-5s.

If it is confirmed and not challenged, the choice is very coherent to the
economic situation and supported by Ruag's links to the Swedish AC.
I personally also think that it would be sufficient to cover the relatively
small needs of the Swiss defence environment.

In any case, this is not a big blow except politically for Sarkozy.
The Swiss tender was reported at lenght on BR but neither Dassault nor
Eurofighter had put all that much on it. MMRCA is still as most here agree
THE most important acquisition program for fighters in the world at present.

Just for fun, can someone tell me which is the second most valuable upcoming
mili planes tender? Hint, it is on the American continent

Good day all, Tay.

* The Gripen includes more workload for the Swiss industry
but Ruag is also present on the Rafale and nEUROn programs.

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 30 Nov 2011 20:00

ahahah another loss for the rafale, pretty much a similar fate awaits the french in India as well. They just suck at selling.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 30 Nov 2011 20:03

^^ they dont suck at selling... they are just greedy. That is why the M2K upgrade took so long & is so expensive. I hope India doesnt choose Rafale ... as I think they will shaft us when time for MLU comes just like in the M2K deal.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 30 Nov 2011 20:07

They suck at selling but they have the best aircraft ! The honor is safe

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 30 Nov 2011 20:14

I don't know what is a big blow but considering the situation (Brazil, UAE, koweit etc... all failures or delays) it is far to be a good news. The best Dassault can hope is the tender to be cancel, the Swiss gov will not change his mind.

Regarding India, I really doubt Dassault and French gov have the ability to secure such a deal. How can you win a difficult competition where you are the outsider when you are not able to win competitions where you are the leading contender (or the sole contender)?

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 30 Nov 2011 20:24

Swiss is not facing any major threats so going with the cheapest option albeit the less capable can make sense. So I doubt you can blame dassault on this one although they did make some big mistakes on other competitions.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 30 Nov 2011 20:32

kelesis wrote:I don't know what is a big blow but considering the situation (Brazil, UAE, koweit etc... all failures or delays) it is far to be a good news. The best Dassault can hope is the tender to be cancel, the Swiss gov will not change his mind.

Regarding India, I really doubt Dassault and French gov have the ability to secure such a deal. How can you win a difficult competition where you are the outsider when you are not able to win competitions where you are the leading contender (or the sole contender)?

There are two sides to the coin here:

One side that it is bad for Dassault definitely and the MoD and the rest are going to go with a fine tooth comb over Dassault's proposal. Getting such bad news from the UAE and the Swiss, if the reports are not DDMitis means there will be reluctance building here to go with the Dassault. Also, as a result of the M2K upg costs. If we look at this side only then the Rafale is doomed not to win the MMRCA. But we have to remember that the loss has to do with the lack of sensitivity to potential customers during the sales cycle or economics or any political considerations. Nothing technical.

The other side of the coin, that the MoD will refer back to the IAF, and if the IAF still says ok to it as as asset, with additional riders in terms of deliverables, The MoD will after having shared their computation of costs with individual sellers, go for L1. If, and this is an assumed scenario, the Rafale is L1, and the MoD is uneasy, in view of Dassault losing, ask the vendors to rework the prices, with no changes to conditions.

The good point about this is both, or the hungrier of the two will drop their trousers.

In life, all is fair in love and war and pricing to win a deal.