West Asia News and Discussions

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Feb 2011 20:24

cant be long before col-G is decorating a lampost, casualty rates seem to be increasing
unsustainable situation, if the loyalists are dug in and the air force has changed sides - maybe they'll bomb him? finish the job that reagan began

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Feb 2011 20:25

shyamd wrote:^^ They are helpful for India. See Above comment by me.

Which one?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Feb 2011 20:36

RamaY wrote: Why these hijab-revolutions and why now?

Because the West wants it now? It is part of Cold War 2 - USA vs China.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Feb 2011 21:21

egypt has a munna certified army and AF pumped up with 2nd highest (after israel) american mil aid over the last couple decades. egypt govt should be able to release a few divisions and shiny F-solahs to secure the land and skies over eastern libya and prepare the rebels for the final push on tripoli.

for starters, if Col-Q's AF transports and helis are destroyed on the ground by nato/egypt strikes (which they can easily undertake at least risk), his militias become trapped where they are with no chance of quick reinforcement or escape. morale will sink. also his arms and fuel dumps could be struck.

a UN rubber stamp for no-fly zone can be easily and legitimately obtained given he has been bombing civilian controlled towns.

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 25 Feb 2011 21:25

Singha wrote:egypt has a munna certified army and AF pumped up with 2nd highest (after israel) american mil aid over the last couple decades. egypt govt should be able to release a few divisions and shiny F-solahs to secure the land and skies over eastern libya and prepare the rebels for the final push on tripoli.

for starters, if Col-Q's AF transports and helis are destroyed on the ground by nato/egypt strikes (which they can easily undertake at least risk), his militias become trapped where they are with no chance of quick reinforcement or escape. morale will sink. also his arms and fuel dumps could be struck.

a UN rubber stamp for no-fly zone can be easily and legitimately obtained given he has been bombing civilian controlled towns.

And if I was Egypt I would 're-route' the oil pipelines from any eastern Libyan oil fields through Alexandria!!

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Feb 2011 21:27

brihaspati-ji, when was cyrenacia last part of egypt?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Feb 2011 21:55

beda fomm near benghazi was the scene of one of the most audacious british truimphs in ww2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beda_Fomm

that region sure has a lot of history in ww2 - I recall names like benghazi, tobruk, el alamein, sidi barrani, mersa matruh , alam haifa, qattara depression from way back in childhood "commando" comics. indian troops rarely if ever featured in them, but tough looking aussie "dingos" a lot in bren gun carrying small tracked vehicles in tobruk.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Feb 2011 22:13

reuters - a prelude to what is coming china's way perhaps...though Unkil probably did not engineer or plan for this, they could use this wave of revolt to CRE (cap rollback eliminate) chinese inroads into resource rich african nations done with sweetheart deals with ruling elites and 'level the playing field' for western MNCs.

Africa is the new Great Game

the prize is a vast unexplored resource of minerals and forest products, plus emerging markets...plus with a foot in both the atlantic and indian ocean, it is really the crossroads of world trade (cape of good hope and suez).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/ ... CA20110225

Libyan rebels say control oil fields, honour deals

By Tom Pfeiffer

BENGHAZI, Libya, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Rebels in eastern Libya said on Friday they now controlled most of the oil fields east of the town of Ras Lanuf, and said they would honour oil deals as long as they were in the interest of the people. [ID:nLDE71M1AF]

The eastern Libyan town of Brega and its oil terminal are under rebel control, and soldiers who have defected are helping the rebels to secure the port, Reuters witnesses said on Friday.

"This area is controlled by the people," said Mabrook Maghraby, a lawyer from Benghazi who is now involved with the local committees defending Brega.

If oil contracts were unfair or based on corruption, however, the interim leadership of Libya's second city Benghazi said they reserved the right to renegotiate them.

Many of Libya's key oil producing areas and terminals are located in the east of the OPEC member state, large chunks of which have fallen to rebels seeking to oust veteran leader Muammar Gaddafi.

"Nearly all the oilfields in Libya east of Ras Lanuf are now controlled by the people and the government has no control in this area," said Abdessalam Najib, a petroleum engineer at the Libyan company Agico and member of the Feb 17. coalition that says it is running Libya's second city on an interim basis.

"The people at the fields and those transporting it (oil) to terminals are still working, but (work has been) shut down by, let us say, 75 percent. I work in oilfields and I was told this by someone at a very big oil company in Brega."

Oil industry sources outside Libya say crude oil shipments from Libya, the world's 12th-largest exporter, have almost halted because of reduced production, a lack of staff at ports and security concerns.

MUST BE FAIR

Jammal bin Nour, a judge and member of the Feb. 17 coalition, told Reuters oil contracts signed by Gaddafi's government would be respected as long as they were fair, good for Libyans, and not based on corruption.

"The oil deals (with foreign firms) that are legal and to the benefit of the Libyan people we will keep," Nour said.

While he acknowledged it was important to adhere to international contracts, he said:

"Some deals were unfair. The big oil companies have relations with politicians in America, Italy, ... (there has been) big corruption. They tried to draw a wonderful picture of Muammar Gaddafi. But he slaughtered the people."

"If the deals are good, we will support them. If not we have the right to negotiate and translate the will of the people in the street, who want democracy and are asking 'where is our money?'," Nour said.

He said the interim leadership would form a special committee to investigate whether deals were rooted in corruption. "There is no interest for us to support these deals," Nour said.

Another member of the coalition, Omar Mohammed said eastern residents would not damage oil wells. "There is no destruction of oil wells, they are ours. No way. If any destruction of the oil facilities happens, it will be Gaddafi doing it," he said. Libya normally produces about 1.6 million bpd of high-quality oil, or almost 2 percent of world output. Between 30 percent and 75 percent of output has been shut down due to the turmoil in the country. (Additional reporting by Mohammed Abbas; Writing by Caroline Drees, editing by Peter Millership)

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Feb 2011 22:14

but indian troops did a lot of the fighting in those battles

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Feb 2011 22:16

if the arabs are wary of the west and the chinese then perhaps india can be an honest broker in helping htem get back on their feet and secure decent contracts for the oil...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Feb 2011 22:18

oh yes they did, but commando comics is a british publication and indian troops were rarely shown...definitely not in command positions. some issues on myanmar theatre had some gurkha/sikh troops iirc.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Feb 2011 22:20

i think libya in particular may be ameanable to indian influence - its not in anyone's camp right now
and italy will be shunned following the Col-G and Big-B bunga bunga

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2011 22:40

SwamyG wrote:
RamaY wrote: Why these hijab-revolutions and why now?
Because the West wants it now? It is part of Cold War 2 - USA vs China.

SwamyG, Please read KS garu's last interview. What he says is there is a need for consort of democratic states to take on the non-democracies (PRC and its twin pitbulls: TSP and Noko).

My commnets:
BTW this is the "End of History" as Fukuyama wrote. The whole series of events in 20th century are really a struggle between totalitarian systems and non-totalitarian systems: First it was a fight ending monarchies in Europe (they Wilhemine Germany, Austria-Hungarian, Tsarist Russia, Ottomons were not representative monarchies like British) and then with Fascism/Nazism, then with Communism in FSU and now the last vestiges of totalitarian systems (PRC, Noko, Mynamar, TSP and other Islamic dictataroships) will be taken on. Either the West supports history or becomes irrelevant. That is why the PRC is wary of Egypt news filtering into China.

And then extrapolate to the Huntington's thesis that Sinic-Islamists will lead to a clash of civilizations with West. Huntington did not envisage role for India but he didn't know that Iraq quagmire and 2008 meltdown will even out the relative power of the contenders.

Bringing in or allowing people's aspirations in Arab world will cut the Sino-Islamist group. Now this might not be a working goal of the West but that will be the realist end result of this round of reform movements.

So West has to seize the moment! And is doing it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2011 22:42

Lalmohan wrote:brihaspati-ji, when was cyrenacia last part of egypt?

Pharaohs?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2011 22:47

Singha wrote:beda fomm near benghazi was the scene of one of the most audacious british truimphs in ww2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beda_Fomm

that region sure has a lot of history in ww2 - I recall names like benghazi, tobruk, el alamein, sidi barrani, mersa matruh , alam haifa, qattara depression from way back in childhood "commando" comics. indian troops rarely if ever featured in them, but tough looking aussie "dingos" a lot in bren gun carrying small tracked vehicles in tobruk.

Yeah those small books in black and white! Bren carriers, LRDG Long Range Desert Group, SAS raids...

I strongly recommend "Battle Honors of the Indian Army"
Maj Sarbans singh to get an idea of where all Indians fought and died.

4th Indian division the Red Eagle division was praised by Rommel for its combat capability. Lt. Gen P.S. Bhagat won a Victoria Cross. And quite few soldiers did too. Rajputana Rifles (Raj Rif) battalions also got praise for their night patrols. Gurkhas were admonished for reporting high enemy kills in night patrols. So they started bringing sliced of ears as proof!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2011 22:55

Nightwatch 2/24/2011

Too many good thing!
Read and quote as needed.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Feb 2011 23:00

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 Feb 2011 23:38

All that has happened is good for India. Now greater chance for cooperation with Libya. Let their people become more wealthy and buy our goods. Let's invest in their oil sector.

Air Force Base in the east has fallen to protestors. The west is advising on govt formation on the ground and setting up police and systems of governance.
How efficient are these guys? Egyptian army will enter with small brigade and enforce no fly zone.

Egyptian guys were reluctant as they are too busy, then gave US proposal another look because of internal considerations. The economy is reliant on migrant workers, migrants returning would add to the economic problems.
Todays war does not need many men in the army. Future is Air Force and good Air defence. Egypt has the air power to enforce the no fly zone.

Let's see how this plays out. India should convene an emergency UNSC session.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 26 Feb 2011 00:14

ramana wrote:
Lalmohan wrote:brihaspati-ji, when was cyrenacia last part of egypt?

Pharaohs?

On and off. The southern parts were part of the Pharaonic fringe, with important oracle sites for Ammon. The Persians conquered it when they overran Egypt and practically rule dit from the regional government based at Egypt. Alexander came through the same excuse, and hence afterwards the Ptolemaics of Egypt ruled the area [with one brief interlude by the Magas]. So it definitely became Egyptian again until the Roman [Diocletian reforms?] which split it into separate admin districts [one part going with Crete]. But later the eastern part was brought under the Egyptian diocese under the tetrachical reforms around 300's. Early Arab invaders ruled it againf rom Egypt, and Fatimid dynasty ruled it from Egypt. Ottomans ruled it practically from Egypt, with later semi-independent arrangement again ruling from Egypt. Only with Italian colonization things really separated from Egypt.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2011 00:18

Damn good sweep of three thousand years of history!

Waht do you think of my thesis that the Arab political reform movements will defuse the potential Huntington Clash of Civilizations? I am not saying some one is working for that, but that will be the end effect of this movement.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 26 Feb 2011 00:36

Temporarily yes! Longer term this is only the first phase after removing the colonial stop-cock from the champagne bottle of repressed eroticism. [Some people think that totalitarian regimes generate a kind of eroticization of violence!]. The first phase is a blind striking out against the prevailing regime. But until the second phase starts there is a gap in civilizational catching up to do. This is the phase they can go either way - but more likely to fall into the trap of a reconstructed elite with strong mullahcracy control. That all over the ex-totalitarian-Islamist countries can form a loose federation where the only thing that can reassure them in a local block is the shared Islamism of their mullahs.

The defusing you refer to can succeed if the second phase is accelerated. The youth in Tahreer made the blunder of not declaring themselves a Constituent Assembly - which gave the opportunity to the military to become the dispenser of Constitution-building. That would be the crucial factor - for the more "libertarian" sections to stake first claim to Coinstitution and institution building, wherever they are together in large numbers. If they wait - the mullahcracy will take over through the backdoor. Then Huntington wins.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Feb 2011 05:15

Ramana: Yup, I read it earlier. The non-totalitarian systems are not exactly India friendly either.

shyamd wrote:All that has happened is good for India. Now greater chance for cooperation with Libya. Let their people become more wealthy and buy our goods. Let's invest in their oil sector.

That was my CT about the West's involvement in this; more market. Buy our goods? What goods?

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 26 Feb 2011 05:35

>>Temporarily yes!

400% agreement. It will only be temporary. Note this, if the Middle East "normalises" and democratises, chances are that the clash will be exacerbated as religious and cultural reaffirmation, as well as localised nationalisms underpinned by religious pillars come to the fore. And there is a good chance that where "democracy" develops in these areas, it will be slow and more a handmaiden of Islam of varying degrees of radicalism more than any other ideological impulse. Moreover, those who are expecting a smooth segue from the crumbling totalitarian structures to pluralism and liberalism are, in my opinion, optimistic in the extreme; it's a whole different thing from democracy. Not that a hop, step and jump to democracy as we know it is very likely either.

I anticipate, instead sustained low-grade instability, military guardiansip, and possibly partition in the case of Libya. The casual manner in which TV commentators (BBC for instance) have started referring to "Eastern Libya" and its "capital Benghazi" is both amusing and disturbing at the same time.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2011 06:36

Bji, How temporary? And you are looking at West Asia as a region. I am thinking of the Sino-Islamist concord that Huntington was writing about.

A 30-50 year temporary is enough to slow down this juggernaut by which time the demography kicks in.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Feb 2011 06:56

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12582014

ivory coast descending into chaos again...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Feb 2011 06:57

May I know what is the shortlist of reasonably well managed countries in africa?

ghana, kenya, SA, namibia, botswana ? and then who else ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2011 06:58

nazar lag jayega!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Feb 2011 08:46

Maldives President asks India to help violence hit Libya

Purush · Post by **Purush** » 26 Feb 2011 09:02

Singha wrote:May I know what is the shortlist of reasonably well managed countries in africa?

ghana, kenya, SA, namibia, botswana ? and then who else ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_In ... Governance
http://www.moibrahimfoundation.org/en

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Feb 2011 09:06

I didnt realize the IOR islands counted as part of africa but logical I suppose. Niger , Chad the sahara territories are vital prizes for minerals and logistical posts in the great game. so their govts will be kept weak and lachaar, majboor and kamzor...

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 26 Feb 2011 09:07

Crude Questions: With the upheaval across the Middle East throwing the global energy market in turmoil, here are five questions that all oil traders are frantically trying to answer.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... _questions

1. Can Saudi Arabia's tradition of ultra-secretiveness survive the highly unpredictable unrest?

2. Can the Persian Gulf petro-monarchies remain stable with turmoil all around them?

3. Can Saudi Arabia truly compensate for any expectable shortfall in the oil market and, if so, for how long?

4. Will traders ever have to risk more in order to bid up the price of crude oil during such crises?

5. Can't the United States create its own spare capacity?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2011 09:45

As long as King Abdullah is there he will steer a course for reforms. Don't know about Najaf guy.

All other questions are speculative.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 26 Feb 2011 09:46

The End of the Arab Dream: Muammar al-Qaddafi's fall won't just mark the close of an awful dictatorship -- it will end the Arab world's disastrous half-century-long affair with utopian governing fantasies.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... arab_dream

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 26 Feb 2011 09:49

About Oil

http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/po ... eb_25_2011

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Feb 2011 12:14

ADEN, Yemen (Reuters) - Two more people died overnight after being shot during anti-government protests in Yemen's southern city of Aden, a doctor said on Saturday.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Feb 2011 15:12

For those who believed the propaganda war on Bahrain.

First they said Ambulances weren't allowed through to protestors etc etc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWN3yjvU ... r_embedded

The so called shooting of protestors by the BDF
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afBh3GJ6 ... ntrinter=1

This is from the video the world saw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NpEody8vxs

Media Lies series
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEGVBsnI ... re=related

The lesson for India in this case is, we need to prepare for such civil disobedience movements and be able to answer the propaganda as it hits us. If we do not, then we will be in trouble domestically and internationally.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 26 Feb 2011 17:19

Shyam, it is impossible to call it all a propaganda war esp looking at those videos. The Ambulance has 'Police' boards on it, it could well be on its way to pick up injured cops/military personnel and hence it was attacked.

The shooting video shows 3 rounds being fired in the air.There's no ways to tell if the 4th round wasn't aimed at the protesters. Lets admit it, none of these ME dictators have been known for their kindness towards their subjects! Again, the third video suggests it isn't the sound of gun fire as their argument. The next image shows a man clearly bleeding and lying on the ground, and another injured person being carried away. Now, whether the person carrying the injured man picks up his flag or not is upto him and hardly a strong argument to call nationwide (well,regionwide) protests as pure propaganda.

Like someone mentioned it earlier, revolutions are like raging fire and winds can blow the fire in multiple directions. Sure, the west/Iran/whatever the forces who have vested interest in the region will salvage the situation to their advantage. But we dont have an iota of proof to call this all another set of 'color revolutions'.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Feb 2011 19:07

the crescent moon has been sighted with the red Mark of the Beast across it....much blood will flow.

at an opportune time a great and kind man shall emerge from the highlands of the Nejd . he shall walk with a slight limp. he will be the one who will unify all the peoples of the desert again and teach them the path of peace and co-existence. whether they answer to Allah or to Jesus the tribes shall gather around him, until his power is unstoppable yet soothing.

the world awaits his coming...it is all flowing per the ancient prophesies.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 26 Feb 2011 19:55

singhaji, please save me a bunk in your fall-out shelter!

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 26 Feb 2011 21:07

Purush wrote:

Interesting..

Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya are in the top 50% where as nations with <50 points are not suitable for color revolutions.

One needs a stronger dictator to rebel against

Demands deeper analysis.