Perspectives on the global economic changes

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 Sep 2016 10:29

David Stockman new book , Amazon link

Trumped! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin... And How to Bring It Back
https://www.amazon.com/Trumped-Nation-B ... nav-subnav

In TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back, David Stockman brings us an insider-turned-iconoclast’s report on how 30 years of financial and political misrule by the Washington/Wall Street elites have brought the U.S. to the brink of ruin.

He shows that the Fed’s destructive ZIRP and QE policies have buried Flyover America in debt while clobbering it with shrinking real wages and vanishing job opportunities. At the same time, the bicoastal elites have prospered mightily from the massive inflation of financial assets in the Wall Street casino and the debt-fueled expansion of Imperial Washington’s domestic rackets and global interventions.

Stockman argues that Donald Trump’s improbable candidacy happened because Flyover America has had enough of a rigged system that benefits the few but has failed to delivery economic recovery and real prosperity at home and a safer and more stable world abroad.

Stockman’s book is no testimonial on behalf of Trump’s candidacy, and contends that much of what he advocates is wrong-headed or downright reprehensible. But it does salute him as the rallying force for Main Street political insurrection because the existing regime of Bubble Finance on Wall Street and statist aggrandizement in Washington threatens incalculable harm.

Stockman also argues that there remains a way forward. He suggests the “political outlaw” who considers himself to be the world’s greatest dealmaker would need to “make ten great deals” to bring American back from the brink. These include a Peace Deal, a Jobs Deal, a Sound Money Deal, a Super Glass-Steagall Deal, A Liberty Deal and five more.

In this trenchant, wide-ranging and unvarnished account, Stockman draws on his unique 40-year career in Washington and Wall Street. After a career as a Capitol Hill staffer, two-term member of Congress and ultimately as President Ronald Reagan’s budget director, Stockman then went to Wall Street. For two decades as an investment banker and private equity investor he had a front row seat as the nation’s financial markets mutated into today’s Bubble Finance casinos.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 Sep 2016 14:39

Chart of The Day: Corporate Debt-To-GDP Ratio At Peak Recession Levels

Source: http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/c ... on-levels/

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 12 Sep 2016 14:57

Gyan wrote:But no, there will not be any crash. Just infinite stagnation.

The Bond yield curve is flat.
The credit curve is going up exponentially.
The Swap curve is inverting.

Each tell a story which is opposite to the others if we look at historical data.

The situation is so uncertain, no one knows how this is going to correct itself. Do you know something that Stan Druckenmiller or Bill Gross do not know? Because making a claim that there wont be a crash but infinite stagnation reeks of information asymmetry. Care to elaborate?

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 12 Sep 2016 23:01

Austin wrote:Chart of The Day: Corporate Debt-To-GDP Ratio At Peak Recession Levels

And the full article is here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-10/deutsche-bank-us-may-now-be-recession

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Sep 2016 10:53

The Mother Of All Bubbles, When The Debt Bubble Pops It Will Be Sudden And Rapid:Chris Martenson

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 13 Sep 2016 19:51

Austin,

Please watch the extended crash course which is freely available on Martensons website. It will change the way you see 'things'.

Here is the link
http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Sep 2016 21:27

panduranghari wrote:Austin,

Please watch the extended crash course which is freely available on Martensons website. It will change the way you see 'things'.

Here is the link
http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse

Thanks Sirjee will check

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 14 Sep 2016 15:11

There will not be any large scale panic Crash in USA. USA Will simply increase fiscal deficit and print money. Even if the whole world collapses, USA will just stand relatively taller. USA Is too powerful and world is NOT about justice.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 14 Sep 2016 18:21

Gyan wrote:There will not be any large scale panic Crash in USA. USA Will simply increase fiscal deficit and print money.

They can't without causing hyperinflation.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 14 Sep 2016 18:25

Gyan wrote: Even if the whole world collapses, USA will just stand relatively taller.

The world cannot collapse because they are not anymore joined in the hip with the USA. What will collapse is the global debt denominated in dollars. The first to go will be the eurodollar market. Already its strained as evident by the negative yield in everywhere but US.

*Past performance is no guarantee for future success.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 14 Sep 2016 18:27

Gyan wrote:USA Is too powerful and world is NOT about justice.

Not sure what to make of this. Is that a statement of fact or your opinion?

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 14 Sep 2016 21:45

Off course, it is my opinion on the state of world affairs.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Sep 2016 21:54

Critical Economic Shifts Happening Right Now

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 15 Sep 2016 14:31

LIBOR reaching a point of pain for companies

This is a big news. LIBOR is at 90 basis points.

All companies have payroll to meet. And they know every month how much they have to pay their staff. Instead of using their cash reserves, they borrow short term from money market funds.The money market funds are those funds where companies who have surplus cash, deposit their cash into. These MM funds pay very paltry interest. For the huge companies with surplus cash, instead of putting them in banks (beyond what banks can guarantee through deposit guarantee) they earn negative interest rate on their surplus funds. So it makes sense for the company to keep money in the money market fund. When interest rates are above zero, the money market fund will pay a premium to attract capital. THIS PREMIUM IS THE LIBOR. These money market funds in turn loan out the funds to those who have short term needs. Thats how they make their money.

The government also has a money market fund which pays 0%.

In 2008, when Lehmann collapsed, the money market funds seized up. Government came in a bailed them out. They guaranteed all money. However, next month the US government is withdrawing all guarantees to money market funds. It will only guarantee its own fund.

Now this means the money market fund to attract capital have to give a very high interest rate return. As per the reports, the money market funds in the last 6 months have collectively lost 500 billion dollars. Its gone into short term treasuries like the 90 day one.

This is very critical and I suspect this will be a big problem if unless the companies have huge tranches of cash.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Sep 2016 10:15

I read and now sure how true is that , Companies are holding on huge pile of cash which they are not investing so perhaps they can use some of those. May be the US Government might just continue guarantees to Money market funds in some other way

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Sep 2016 10:16

Chart Of The Day: The Great Productivity Bust
by David Stockman • September 15, 2016

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/c ... vity-bust/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Sep 2016 10:17

Chart Of The Day: The Great Jobs Bust

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Sep 2016 10:31

Harvard Crushes The "Obama Recovery" Farce With 9 Simple Charts

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 17 Sep 2016 05:16

Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question. May be at the beginning of January, end of 2017, or may be never?

Theresa May 'likely' to launch Brexit talks in early 2017, suggests Donald Tusk

But, wait...

Key Brexit talks unlikely to begin until late 2017, says Van Rompuy

Negotiations between EU and UK cannot start until after German elections next year, says former European council president...

Brexit vote not surprising after years of lies about EU, says Jean-Claude Juncker

Jean-Claude Juncker know that perpetual war on EU (and Euro as a second biggest trade currency), by forcing one of its members to exit, has been going on for years, and will continue.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Sep 2016 10:44

Greenspan Worries That ‘Crazies’ Will Undermine the U.S. System

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan voiced concern that the U.S. economic and political system could be undermined by what he called “crazies.”

“It is the worst economic and political environment that I’ve ever been remotely related to,” Greenspan, 90, told a conference in Washington Tuesday evening sponsored by Stanford University and the University of Chicago.

On the economic front, the U.S. is headed toward stagflation -- a combination of weak demand and elevated inflation, according to Greenspan. “Politically, I haven’t a clue how this comes out.”

“We’re not in a stable equilibrium,” he said. “I hope we can all find a way out because this is too great a country to be undermined, by how should I say it, crazies.”

Greenspan, who served from 1974-1977 in the Republican presidential administration of the late Gerald Ford, declined to comment on Wednesday when asked whom he was referring to.

In his comments on Tuesday, Greenspan traced the rise of populism in the U.S. all the way back to 1896, when William Jennings Bryan gave his “Cross of Gold” speech at the Democratic Party national convention opposing the gold standard.

Greenspan repeated his concern on Tuesday that increased government spending on social security and healthcare are crowding out private investment and leading to slower economic growth. He bemoaned the fact that neither presidential candidate was talking about reining in those expenditures. “Nobody wants to discuss it” for fear of a political backlash, he said.

In the past, Republican administrations on average countenanced bigger expansions in these entitlement outlays than Democrats, Greenspan said. In that regard, former Democratic President Bill Clinton -- Hillary’s husband -- “turned out to be the best Republican,” he said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Sep 2016 13:16

I wonder who are these Crazies that Greenspan is referring to better not be the Politician but Janet Yallen

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 17 Sep 2016 17:49

He wrote an essay while he was a young man on how important gold is in the financial system and all through his professional career he tried his best to keep it out of the financial centre stage. What a hypocrite.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Sep 2016 21:58

panduranghari wrote:He wrote an essay while he was a young man on how important gold is in the financial system and all through his professional career he tried his best to keep it out of the financial centre stage. What a hypocrite.

Greenspan's Words Will Come Back to Haunt Him as Fed Policy Falters
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/JeffSnid ... id/748720/

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 17 Sep 2016 23:22

In the perpetual economic/financial war against EU (and Euro currency) being played in the main stream media (including financial media), looks like the celebrity economists needed a new target, and this time it is It Italy's turn.

George Friedman: Italy Is the Mother of All Systemic Threats

Looks like a perfect storm is in the making for 2017 using following spicy ingredients

New POTUS +
Brexit +
Dutch referendum (may be) +
German Elections +
Perpetual roasting of PIIGS countries

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 18 Sep 2016 11:59

An interesting perspective from a MGTOW.

For those of you who don't know, MGTOW is a growing trend of men choosing not to get married and instead staying single.
In Japan its called "Herbivore men".
I'll post a video on that right after this.
Among other things, its wrecking the economy in Japan. As men do not get married, population levels crash and with it the economy.

The divorce laws which screws men over by taking more than 50% of their assets (including their home) and making men pay spousal support, the bad economy infested with banksters stealing the productive output & savings of society and a number of other reasons have led to a rise in MGTOW numbers in North America.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 18 Sep 2016 12:15

Here's the documentary on Herbivore Men in Japan
Its wrecking the nation's economy as it further shrinks the population.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Sep 2016 12:33

Guess The Last Country Which Still Has Positive Real Interest Rates——Russia!
by Robert Wenzel • September 17, 2016

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/g ... es-russia/

Russia’s central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, continues to be the most impressive central banker in the world. It appears she has completely rejected Keynesian money pumping orthodoxy and its strange new view that a little price inflation is good. She holds the heroic view that it is investment and increasing efficiencies that boost growth in an economy.

Reports Bloomberg: Nabiullina has a message for Russian businesses that may be finding it difficult to adapt to positive real interest rates: get used to it.

The Bank of Russia will continue its “moderately tight” monetary policy, with the inflation rate now below its benchmark for the past eight months, Nabiullina told a banking conference in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi today. Keeping real interest rates stable in positive territory is an “important condition for healthy economic growth,” she said.

The main drivers of growth should be “fixed investment, structural changes in the economy and efficiency increases,” Nabiullina said. “It’s necessary to safeguard household deposits against inflationary depreciation to support a high level of savings and to create the conditions to transform them into investment.”

“We see the stability of rates — their predictable and gradual decrease as far as inflation slows — as an important factor in stabilizing the economy,” she said. It’s also “one of the conditions for a shift to growth, based in particular on higher labor productivity and efficiency.”

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Sep 2016 12:36

Excellent Interview with David Stockman

David Stockman-Gold Prices Will Soar When Central Banks Fail

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 19 Sep 2016 19:31

LIBOR is at 0.9%. Look at HIBOR- HongKong CNH borrowing rate is eye watering 23.7%

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-1 ... turns-ugly

Yuan offically becomes part of SDR in 12 days.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 21 Sep 2016 17:13

How True is this ?

Reason Why China Benefits From Global Hegemony of Dollar

Read more: https://en.ria.ru/business/20160919/104 ... erves.html

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Sep 2016 11:15

Interview Audio

David Stockman Interview: Why The Rule Of The Wall Street/Washington Elite Is Finished

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/d ... -finished/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Sep 2016 22:24

US Fed acknowledges worries over stock market bubble

https://www.rt.com/business/360245-yell ... ble-burst/

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 24 Sep 2016 11:54

Amazing how wealthy Libya was under Ghadfi.

How the West Destroyed Libya

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Sep 2016 12:43

David Stockman Interview with Ron Paul ( Its not about Trump but mostly on Economy )

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Sep 2016 20:41

Chinese central bank designates renminbi clearing bank in New York

https://www.ft.com/content/40b5ea7e-7fc ... c15fb462f4

The establishment of a clearing bank in the US will promote the growth of renminbi activity in the US and help accommodate an increase in volumes and demand for renminbi products and services,” said Timothy Geithner, former US Treasury secretary and co-chair of the working group. Michael Bloomberg, former New York City mayor, co-chairs the group, along with Henry Paulson, another former US Treasury secretary.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Sep 2016 20:44

Renminbi’s debut in SDR culminates decade of change with more ahead

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... f33c9f26ee

On October 1 the renminbi begins an exciting new chapter in its journey to becoming a global currency.

On that day the Chinese currency will officially enter the Special Drawing Right (SDR) currency basket, joining the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound in the elite “club” of global reserve currencies.

The IMF’s decision to admit the renminbi to this select grouping marks an important seal of approval because it signifies that the renminbi is widely used and widely traded, even though it is still subject to some capital account restrictions.

A currency does not need to be part of the SDR basket to become a reserve currency; Similarly, SDR inclusion does not automatically translate into reserve-currency status. It is ultimately up to central banks to decide whether to hold assets denominated in a particular currency — and how much to hold.

What, then, is the significance of the renminbi joining the SDR basket, given the SDR is not a currency and few goods and services are priced in it?

First, it is a clear recognition of the renminbi’s development as a global medium of exchange. The “people’s currency” is now both widely-used (ranked fifth by SWIFT, a network that banks around the world use to move money) and widely traded (ranked eighth by the Bank for International Settlements, a central bank for central banks).

More importantly, admittance into the SDR basket serves as a harbinger: the renminbi’s role in the global arena will continue to expand across the board.

The renminbi’s current share of global payments is less than 2 per cent, whereas the dollar and the euro together account for more than 70 per cent. As companies and investors step up their use of the Chinese currency, this share will rise.

We believe that by 2020 half China’s trade will be settled in its own currency, from 26 per cent in 2015. Improved payment systems such as China’s Cross-Border International Payment System will help oil the wheels of this activity, while the IMF’s seal of approval should boost confidence that the renminbi is liquid and stable.

Similarly, the renminbi’s share of global central bank reserves will also increase. At the moment, the dollar and the euro together account for nearly 85 per cent of the world’s reserves, while the renminbi is not even recorded in the IMF’s regular surveys on central bank holdings. Come October 1 this will change: the renminbi will be separately identified in the IMF’s official reserves database, while the RMB proportion of central banks’ reserves will grow.

This is borne out by an HSBC survey conducted earlier this year of 77 central banks together managing more than half the world’s reserves. Thirty-two indicated they already hold investments denominated in renminbi — up from three in 2012. The findings also showed the renminbi’s share of global reserves will rise to 7 per cent in 2020 and 10 per cent by 2025. Also, the central banks’ polled indicated they might invest up to 6.7 per cent of reserves in the renminbi by 2025; up from 5.5 per cent a year earlier.

Granted, central banks and reserves managers will not all buy renminbi assets overnight, but the trend is clear. In fact, the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in June it would include its renminbi financial investments as part of official foreign reserves.

Meanwhile, the gradual liberalisation of China’s capital account is opening new ways for overseas investors — including central banks — to buy into a widening array of RMB-denominated assets. Take the recently announced Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme. It expands the list of mainland-listed companies in which overseas investors can trade; it also widens the range of Hong Kong-listed stocks mainland investors can trade.

Another area of opening is China’s domestic bond market, already the world’s third-largest, after the US and Japan and with huge growth potential. China has systematically rolled out measures to increase the level of foreign participation.

Last year China reopened the so-called Panda Bond market, again allowing foreign entities to issue renminbi-denominated debt on the mainland. In February the authorities opened the China Interbank Bond Market to investors such as foreign banks and pension funds. In August the World Bank became the first entity approved to issue SDR-denominated bonds in China.

In many ways, October 1 represents the culmination of more than a decade of change for what was once an almost exclusively domestic currency. But more change will come as the renminbi moves steadily towards becoming a truly international currency that is used by companies, investors and individuals around the globe.

Peter Wong is deputy chairman and chief executive of Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 26 Sep 2016 11:54

Around 46 Min
the MNC are in the offshore accounts and not in the control of countries

Offshore account in Liechtenstein is the home of Trillions of assets

Countries dont matter anymore

Pakistan is under the control of this group of multinationals who made sure that with the creation of Pak the interest of West is maintained in Middle East.

Now this interest has changed after the invasion of Iraq. The MNC are controlling the Middle east now and they dont need Pak

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Sep 2016 18:27

David Stockman: Economy is on the edge of ruin

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 Sep 2016 12:32

Peter Schiff-No Way Out for Fed Trapped in Monetary Roach Motel