Pakistan arms sales, ops, doctrine, etc

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 06 Aug 2011 20:43

PAF on the Offensive - 1971 War ---- Kaiser Tufail

arun · Post by **arun** » 07 Aug 2011 21:15

Does the killing of Jihadi co-religionists during the Mohammadden holy month of Ramzan / Ramadan by the Army of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan conform to the” Jihad Fi Sabilillah” or ”Jihad In The Path of Allah” part of their motto of “Iman Taqwa, Jihad Fi Sabilillah”?:

Kurram operation leaves 6 more militants dead, 12 injured

Thomas Kolarek · Post by **Thomas Kolarek** » 08 Aug 2011 17:13

US plans to snatch & grab Pak's nuclear weapons

The US has a contingency plan to "snatch-and-grab" Pakistan's nuclear weapons, if and when the President believes they are threat to either America or its interests, a media report has said, amid strains in bilateral ties.

Plans have been drawn up for dealing with worst-case scenarios in Pakistan, NBC news reported quoting current and former US officials, who say that ensuring security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons has long been a high US security priority even before 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Among the scenarios drawn by the report is Pakistan plunging into internal chaos, terrorist mounting a serious attack against a nuclear facility, hostilities breaking out with India or Islamic extremist taking charge of the government or the Pakistan army.

NBC said the greatest success of the US war on terrorism, the military operation that killed Osama bin Laden in his safe house in Pakistan in May..., has fuelled concerns about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

The report said there were increasing suspicions among US officials that Osama had support within the ISI and the Abbottabad operation had emboldened those in Washington who believe an orchestrated campaign of lightning raids to secure Pakistan's nuclear weapons could succeed.

In the aftermath of the bin Laden raid, US military officials have testified before Congress about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the threat posed by "loose nukes" - nuclear weapons or materials outside the government's control. And earlier Pentagon reports also outline scenarios in which US forces would intervene to secure nuclear weapons that were in danger of falling into the wrong hands.

Such discussions of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, now believed to consist of as many as 115 nuclear bombs and missile warheads, have gotten the attention of current and former Pakistani officials.

In an interview with NBC News, former Pakistan military ruler Pervez Musharraf warned that a snatch-and-grab operation would lead to all-out war between the countries, calling it "total confrontation by the whole nation against whoever comes in."

"These are assets which are the pride of Pakistan, assets which are dispersed and very secure in very secure places, guarded by a corps of 18,000 soldiers," said a combative Musharraf, who led Pakistan for nearly a decade and is again running for president.

"...(This) is not an army which doesn't know how to fight. This is an army which has fought three wars. Please understand that," he said.

Pervez Hoodboy, Pakistan's best known nuclear physicist and a human rights advocate, rarely agrees with the former president. But he, too, says a US attempt to take control of Pakistan's nukes would be foolhardy.

"They are said to be hidden in tunnels under mountains, in cities, as well as regular air force and army bases," he said. "A US snatch operation could trigger war; it should never be attempted."

Despite such comments, interviews with current and former US officials, military reports and even congressional testimony indicate that Pakistan's weaponry has been the subject of continuing discussions, scenarios, war games and possibly even military exercises by US intelligence and special forces regarding so-called "snatch-and-grab" operations.

"It's safe to assume that planning for the worst-case scenario regarding Pakistan nukes has ready taken place inside the US government," said Roger Cressey, former deputy director of counter-terrorism in the Clinton and Bush White House. "This issue remains one of the highest priorities of the US intelligence community ... and the White House."

Jeffrey T Richelson, an intelligence historian, has written extensively about the possibility of a US military operation aimed at Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, notably in his 2009 book 'Defusing Armageddon.'

The book focuses on the US Nuclear Emergency Search Team (NEST), which might play leading a role in disarming Pakistani weapons along with elements of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC).

The nuts-and-bolts of how such an operation would work - such as whether teams would attempt to disarm or destroy the weapons - remain highly classified.

But Richelson notes that without referring to Pakistan by name, Gen Peter Pace, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in 2006 discussed two types of operations where in which the US military would seek to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of al-Qaida or other militants.

India should plan for this snatching more than US should, and interesting places they store their so called thuds.

manum · Post by **manum** » 08 Aug 2011 22:25

I'll confess...I day dream about inventing a technology through which we can map and detect nuclear weapons through satellites...and designing an engine for Indian aircraft industry...

Its a fantasy land I live in sometimes...mad though

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 09 Aug 2011 03:40

US Nuclear Emergency Search Team (NEST)

We need one as well.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Aug 2011 04:13

On the snatch and grab topic, what kind of war would Mush envision?

No Paki plane will take of, no ship will leave a port (even if they do, whee will they go?). That leaves the army. Whom will they fight - as a war? I am not talking of defending the nukes - that is a given.

Will they explode a few as the US S&G team gets close? After all Jihadi mind set is already there.

The potential to start something with India will always remain.

Perhaps a new fictional thread can be started to address this.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Aug 2011 08:15

Any 'snatch' action by the US will result in nukes being launched against India. After all, these nukes were built in the first place to attack India and what is the point in losing them all without their purpose being served. Pakistanis had eaten grass to get the nukes and that should not go waste. It can always be justified by Pakistan, whether anybody believes them or not, that the 'snatch' operation was planned and helped by India and Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine demanded a strike. Pakistan will further justify the attack by blaming India for indulging in a reckless action knowing the fallout (pun intended). The Pakistani Abduls will swallow this and feel happy to be martyred by Indian retaliation. Pakistan might not have sufficient time to elaborately justify its actions though, provided the US does not hold us back.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 Aug 2011 10:07

True such Snatch & Grab report is just a non-starter and is sensational journalism.

Nuclear Weapons are not OBL sitting at a safe house ready to be grabbed , searching Nuclear weapons in bakistan is like searching needle in a haystack well defended by Paki Army and spread out across many locations.

VikB · Post by **VikB** » 09 Aug 2011 11:50

Austin wrote:True such Snatch & Grab report is just a non-starter and is sensational journalism.

Nuclear Weapons are not OBL sitting at a safe house ready to be grabbed , searching Nuclear weapons in bakistan is like searching needle in a haystack well defended by Paki Army and spread out across many locations.

On the contrary, OBL was a single human. US could hunt him out of a million people there. Nukes on the other hand - are many, require specific logistics, require special security, have restriction of where they can be based, difficult to move around and most importantly - give a tell tale signature in terms of radiation that they emit! US specifically has 'copters meant to snoop on radiation sources. The OBL incidence has infact shown that US can fly anywhere in Pukeland and has lieterally peneterated the ISI. Of course the Paki Army was always in their pockets.
I wont be surprised if the US is right now sitting with the chit of paper with the handful of sites written on it. It is only a matter of deciding how to take the nukes off in an eventuality - bomb the place to smitherins or send snatch teams.

I hazard another guess - Paki army is already domesticated by US, it is the ISI which is still playing the truant. The work to domesticate it also seems to have commenced. There is nothing in the Paki army which Uncle Sam cannot know.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 09 Aug 2011 12:39

^^^ Snatch and grab is very much possible. The military cost may be very high unlike the OBL party. However, we wouldn't know what Paki nuke snatch specific black project exists in US. If they are talking about it, then they must be working on it.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 09 Aug 2011 12:42

rather than snatch and grab, what about moab and entomb?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 Aug 2011 13:45

VikB wrote:I hazard another guess - Paki army is already domesticated by US, it is the ISI which is still playing the truant. The work to domesticate it also seems to have commenced. There is nothing in the Paki army which Uncle Sam cannot know.

PA has done every thing and any thing that is wrong in the book to get a Nuclear Parity with India be it Weapons or Missile , the PA views it as a guarantee of stability against India and prevented dismembered by India.

So any snatch and grab would just mean one thing , Use it or Loose it ... they would simply use it against India then loose it to US , like SSridhar has mentioned and I would agree there.

This whole news is just sensationalism , much like the cap roll back news we heard during 90's .... its not gona work ...... for as long as India remains nuked ..... Paki will not give up and will keep increasing it.

manum · Post by **manum** » 09 Aug 2011 15:03

How anyone can snatch and grab nuclear weapon...they are not a small or singular objects...
actually its a long time process of snatching and grabbing...can someone explain what would be the method to do it...and what all things will be needed to be snatched and grabbed...

Secondly This thing will require exact location of the weapons and precise practice and training for a pretty long period...I think it'll be an interesting thing to study upon...  Best way is to make it happen would be make Pakistani's move its weapons from one place to other...through advertising this eventuality of snatching and grabbing as real possibility...

VikB · Post by **VikB** » 09 Aug 2011 15:17

Austin, it is a far too simplified logic. We have earlier also spoken on the forum about the self preservation instincts of the Paki military leadership. With conventional weapons they will live to fight another day, with use of nukes, all will be lost for them.

The OBL episode has shown that Paki leadership - civil and military can be controlled. Sorry but they have been shown to be napunsaks. Which self respecting country will stomach such a gross viloation of airspace. With other countries too US can cajole, arm twist, threaten, use soft force but never before has it used rank brute force of this type to get what they wanted. They didnt ask Pakistan to extradite/do joint ops/arrest/etc. They got in, got out at will.

US is NOT worried about Paki using the nukes atop F16 or missiles. That threat it has already taken care of. The only mark those delivery systems is predictable - India. They will have to mate the nukes with these systems. It is comparitively easy to monitor and manage. And till it is India or anyone else getting rogered, US wont bothe. It is the use of these nukes against say Israel, US, Europe is what they are worried about. If the jihadis get their hands on these, then no one knows how they will they use it. The 9/11 showed that someone sitting in caves in Afghanistan can come with interesting ways to use limited means. Why else do you think that they are scanning the containers at their ports for radioactivity?

US could not control Pak getting the technology/ready made bombs and missiles. Let us give it to the Pukes and Lizard their due in being able to do this. Plus of course Uncle Sam is not that all pervasive. But from here, US knows how to keep a tab on these items.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 09 Aug 2011 15:24

manum wrote:How anyone can snatch and grab nuclear weapon...they are not a small or singular objects...
actually its a long time process of snatching and grabbing...can someone explain what would be the method to do it...and what all things will be needed to be snatched and grabbed...

Secondly This thing will require exact location of the weapons and precise practice and training for a pretty long period...I think it'll be an interesting thing to study upon...  Best way is to make it happen would be make Pakistani's move its weapons from one place to other...through advertising this eventuality of snatching and grabbing as real possibility...

Musharraf will get his musharraf pounded if he does not part with the details.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Aug 2011 16:09

S&G has two components (from Paki PoV): what Pakistan will do and what Pakistan can do.

"Will do", i am sure, is well covered: (as posted) launch against India, resist the S&G, etc.

I am more interested in thoughts (supported by past actions please) on "Can do".

Will Pakistan be able to actually launch anything? Some of what they would like to launch? Or all of what they want to launch?

Will the actual commands reach their destinations? Or will they be intercepted and re-directed? (During OBL effort did the US actually listen in on Pakistani chatter?)

How much time is required to ready a Paki nuke?

On resistance, will the US use tactical nukes on the Pakis?

S&G does not have to mean actual "grab" ....... prevention of a launch and total control after that is enough.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 09 Aug 2011 16:11

All nukes cannot be snatched - that much is sure and has been repeated time and again by many people. The sudden re-re-release of this" grab the nukes" plan report is interesting. Pakistanis have long been convinced that their nukes will be grabbed by someone and you can be sure that at least a handful are way way beyond anyone's ability to grab them - provided Pakistan actually has nukes - which is a different issue.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Aug 2011 16:14

shiv wrote:All nukes cannot be snatched - that much is sure and has been repeated time and again by many people. The sudden re-re-release of this" grab the nukes" plan report is interesting. Pakistanis have long been convinced that their nukes will be grabbed by someone and you can be sure that at least a handful are way way beyond anyone's ability to grab them - provided Pakistan actually has nukes - which is a different issue.

Granted. The problem seems to be associated with the word "grab". We tend to think of physical control over the beasts. Perhaps we should re-write it as "Snatch, grab and prevent".

What if the US manages to physically control a few and prevent the launch of the rest? Is that a possibility?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Aug 2011 16:15

Snatch, grab, prevent and intercept?

manum · Post by **manum** » 09 Aug 2011 16:33

We are seeing it as India centric...but all the use of words is to stop it from becoming a aam technology in hands of militants and blackmailers...

There are many in their industry...who can help a militant organisation to get a crude know how...We can take few weapons, but what about the people who have the know how...

Nukes going mango is real danger in the name allah.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 09 Aug 2011 16:48

shiv wrote:All nukes cannot be snatched - that much is sure and has been repeated time and again by many people. The sudden re-re-release of this" grab the nukes" plan report is interesting. Pakistanis have long been convinced that their nukes will be grabbed by someone and you can be sure that at least a handful are way way beyond anyone's ability to grab them - provided Pakistan actually has nukes - which is a different issue.

You are right. Some snached nukes and unblinking vigil on the launchers etc will make then use few of their nukes instead of everything they got. There will be a targeting problem too as Pakis might not be launching the right missile for the right target. Launching that nuke will be very very very tough problem for them. Besides, its not just one nation looking for its marbles. There will be minimum two.

VikB · Post by **VikB** » 09 Aug 2011 16:59

Shiv - it is not only tough but impossible to hide 'capital' items. There are only so many places where the missile integeration takes place. There are only so many 'bums' that are manufactured in a ready to use state. Stockpiling fissionable material is a different headache - more from the proliferation angle.
Point is - a dedicated and capable (money and tech) country like US will have little problem in knowing the nuke specifics of a country where it is so deeply entrenched. What to do with the info is the problem. You think that the Generals who love to indulge in 'items' offered by Uncle (money, kid edu), will have a problem in singing when the stick is up their musharaf?

If you ask how many guns the Pukes have- tough to answer. You ask how many tanks they have- much easier. Capital items require a whole trail to manage. The nukes are their prized possessions. They have to have them in clusters - they cant spread them like one-at-each-location. Each has to be near the launch vehcile. Somone has to bolt the two together. Only a few can be or rather must be taught how to do that. Each cluster would require huge security entourage. It all is big smoke trail.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 09 Aug 2011 18:18

If US ever decides to go for Paki nukes it will be more of a Search and destroy mission rather than snatch and grab.The reason being Logistics of a snatch and grab operation are much more complicated.The no. of seal team 6 operators does not exceed 300.Ditto for Delta force operators.For a snatch and grab mission let us suppose Pakistan stores its nukes at around 6-10 sites.So it would mean the entire JSOC component of US SOCOM will have to be mobilised for this mission only.Now if you are mobilising 600-1000 specops soldiers for one mission in a single country , is it even possible to ensure the secrecy of such a mission.This goes against the logic of special forces operations"Keep it simple".

Another very important point for a successful Search and Destroy/Snatch and Grab mission for paki nukes is that Americans would need some serious humint.Humint which is extremely high level,high quality and highly reliable .I seriously doubt if there would be more than 10 persons in Pakistan who would know the location of all these nukes.That is the level of challenge . Radiation detectors and satellite surveillance can only take you so far.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 09 Aug 2011 18:42

could EMP weapons be used by unkil to disable the control circuits and maintenance facilities of the clown juals?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 09 Aug 2011 19:03

VikB wrote:Shiv - it is not only tough but impossible to hide 'capital' items. There are only so many places where the missile integeration takes place. There are only so many 'bums' that are manufactured in a ready to use state. Stockpiling fissionable material is a different headache - more from the proliferation angle.
Point is - a dedicated and capable (money and tech) country like US will have little problem in knowing the nuke specifics of a country where it is so deeply entrenched. What to do with the info is the problem. You think that the Generals who love to indulge in 'items' offered by Uncle (money, kid edu), will have a problem in singing when the stick is up their musharaf?

If you ask how many guns the Pukes have- tough to answer. You ask how many tanks they have- much easier. Capital items require a whole trail to manage. The nukes are their prized possessions. They have to have them in clusters - they cant spread them like one-at-each-location. Each has to be near the launch vehcile. Somone has to bolt the two together. Only a few can be or rather must be taught how to do that. Each cluster would require huge security entourage. It all is big smoke trail.

VikB - this is a "we hope" thing. We hope and assume that the US knows. I personally don't believe it. What is worse is to imagine a scenario in which the US raids Pakistan and grabs an unspecified number of nukes and says "We got em all"

What is the guarantee that they have them all?

Nukes may be capital items - but what is much more difficult is nuclear material (Enriched Uranium/bomb grade Pu) which can be hidden away 15 kg here - 20 kg there etc.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 09 Aug 2011 19:20

Lalmohan wrote:could EMP weapons be used by unkil to disable the control circuits and maintenance facilities of the clown juals?

Lalmohan ji, in theory yes but then US will have to know the location of the nukes so that it can position the emp weapons accordingly.

One more thing neutralising nukes is not tough.There are multiple ways to do so.The difficult part is identifying the locations where they are stored.

In fact if the locations are known then even India can destroy these nukes.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 09 Aug 2011 19:23

the traditional way being to nuke the nuke bases

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 09 Aug 2011 19:32

Lalmohan wrote:the traditional way being to nuke the nuke bases

Trust me this is one of the better options available and definitely the cheapest.US AND Soviet Union both had provision for such attacks during cold war.I believe it was and still is known as CounterForce strike.America had the advantage in this scenario as their missiles were much more accurate.Also majority of America's arsenal was submarine based and hence was less susceptible to Soviet counterforce strike.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 09 Aug 2011 19:39

If US can find out OBL, it is much easier to sniff out Nukes and Nuke bases. It need lot of resources to maintain Nuke bases. US being in this business for longtime, they can do that. We too do have idea about their location.

Even if US can snatch only 50% nukes, it is that much good as most of the nukes will be used against us.

vanand · Post by **vanand** » 09 Aug 2011 21:26

darshhan wrote:
Lalmohan wrote:the traditional way being to nuke the nuke bases
Trust me this is one of the better options available and definitely the cheapest.US AND Soviet Union both had provision for such attacks during cold war.I believe it was and still is known as CounterForce strike.America had the advantage in this scenario as their missiles were much more accurate.Also majority of America's arsenal was submarine based and hence was less susceptible to Soviet counterforce strike.

1. Cost effective EMP would be nuking pak atmosphere with considerable no of nukes (above 100 km) will put pak out action for more hrs and snatch nukes.
2. This will be costlier non nuclear EMP weapons since this affects very small area, US need to pin point the storage areas
3. And the traditional way.

But all these options can be done if there going to be full fledged war.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 09 Aug 2011 22:12

in a first strike scenario, it is the delivery vehicles that should be the primary target.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 09 Aug 2011 22:22

so actually their launch assets and air bases can be taken out fairly quickly
its the mobile launchers that are more problematic - but not insurmountable
the problem remains the JDAM on behl-gaRi

Leo.Davidson · Post by **Leo.Davidson** » 09 Aug 2011 23:48

PAF completes production of 26 JF-17 Thunder jets
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 544766.cms

Commendable with a pinch of salt. Commendable that they have competent translators to convert the chainese text & measurements into gibberish so that the pakis could build it.

Defence production secretary Shahid Iqbal told the parliamentary committee that two P-3C Orion anti-submarine and maritime surveillance aircraft were destroyed in a recent terrorist attack on a naval airbase in Karachi and efforts were being made to replace them.

Also, note that they have been informed by the US, that the junk that they torched in the Karachi attack would be replaced with modern flyable aircraft.

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 10 Aug 2011 01:55

Austin wrote:So any snatch and grab would just mean one thing , Use it or Loose it ... they would simply use it against India then loose it to US , like SSridhar has mentioned and I would agree there.

Pakis keep nuclear weapons in a de-mated state like India. It will not be possible to launch any strike unless they are already in high alert.

jai · Post by **jai** » 10 Aug 2011 02:11

On this nuke grab theory, here are my assumptions - Unkil may do it. I am sure this is a planted report to get the pukis to react - either move some of the non secure ones or start putting additional protection layers - which the unkil would be watching - from the air - scores of satellites, uav's, listening posts, electronic intel, penetrated networks and through boots on the ground - what with over 5000 covert CIA and Blackwater types floating inside pak. May be this is to confirm what they already know, or get info on some that they don't.

In all probability, they would already know what they need to know. Lets not forget who has financed the terror monkeys the most so far - I am sure they still have some strings available to pull in the terror camps - both uniformed and without. The fact that in the last two years they have killed so many monkeys seems to be an indicator to me.

This threat is so wide that intelligence of the entire western world would be on a look out - at least developed Europe and Israel - who by the way are as much if not more threatened by Puki bums in jihadi hands. Who knows, some stuxnet types may already be crawling/gnawing their way into puki nukes.

If the coalition forces can come together to fight in Afghanistan, I am more than sure that they will - to put rogue nukes out of commission.

Another scenario is that Unkil may have to lead this effort to keep the good Israelis from doing so, to keep the arabs out of the game.

Who knows, this may be Om mama's grand finale to the af-pak pull out.

Hmm, wondering how much dhoti shivering is this causing in the land of puree' .....

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Aug 2011 02:25

Increase the Nuke threat to PRC via Uigher route and Poak nuke locations will come to open for Unkil /Aunty or Bhanja to act .

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Aug 2011 03:03

See if this Aug 8, 2011 article helps:

Getting Bin Laden :: What happened that night in Abbottabad.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 10 Aug 2011 08:28

Aditya G wrote:Pakis keep nuclear weapons in a de-mated state like India. It will not be possible to launch any strike unless they are already in high alert.

Unsure. They "claim" that they keep it in such a form.

sarabpal.s · Post by **sarabpal.s** » 10 Aug 2011 10:12

Always take precaution for the people who are either bully or who hardly can stand on his feet, because bully can outrun you in short term and weak can do anything stop himself falling.

Craig Alpert · Post by **Craig Alpert** » 11 Aug 2011 04:11

China to launch satellite for Pakistan

China announced on Wednesday it will launch a communications satellite for Pakistan at an "appropriate time" in the coming days. It will be carried by a Long March-3B carrier rocket.

Both the satellite and rocket are currently in good condition, the official media quoted a spokesman of the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China's Sichuan Province, as saying.

The 30-transponder satellite will give Pakistan some strategic advantages in military and cross-border propaganda areas besides helping the country meet its communications needs, observers said.

It has been "manufactured exclusively" for Pakistan, the National Space Agency of Pakistan, said recently. It will work on both KU and C bands and controlled by earth stations in Karachi and Lahore, the agency said.

Pakistan is a member of the Beijing headquartered Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, which is implementing a project sharing of remote sensing data among member states. Other members include Bangladesh and Iran, who will also share date on early warning and mitigating disasters and exploitation of resources in the APSCO circuit. China began assisting Pakistan's space program after signing a strategic cooperation agreement in 2007.