Iran News and Discussions

[drnayar]

The B2s in Diego Garcia.. MOABs have come !

[pravula]

Aren’t MOABs B2 only?

[drnayar]

Aren’t MOABs B2 only?

Right its the bone !..corrected that

[pravula]

Aren’t MOABs B2 only?

Right its the bone !..corrected that

If so, they have been there for a few months now, since April.

https://www.twz.com/air/b-2-spirits-ama ... ter-debate

[skumar]

MIT Prof Ted Postol critically examines the U.S. GBU-57 bunker buster bomb, its claimed capabilities, and the real-world limitations in using such weapons against deep, hardened, and potentially cleverly designed Iranian underground facilities.

The Claims:
The GBU-57 (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) weighs 30,000 lbs, with 5,000–6,000 lbs of explosives, designed to penetrate up to 200 feet into reinforced concrete or rock before detonation.
The claim is that it can reach and destroy underground facilities such as nuclear enrichment sites.
The Reality:
These claims are likely overstated or misunderstood, especially by political decision-makers misinformed by defense contractors or military briefers.
The bomb must hit very close to or directly above a target, such as a tunnel or chamber, to do meaningful damage.
A blast cavity from the explosion is ~20–30 meters wide.
If the actual tunnel is offset by more than that (30+ meters horizontally or vertically), it won't be affected.
Design Misassumptions:
U.S. attack models assume Iranian bunkers are simple, vertical shafts, but:
Real underground bunkers may use offset tunnels, angled passages, or be built into irregular terrain like hills, making direct hits extremely unlikely.
Example: Iran's Fordow facility is buried under a hill, making perpendicular impact very difficult.
Concrete Deflection Techniques:
Studies (including by Chinese researchers) show that angled concrete structures (e.g., diamond-shaped cross-sections) can cause incoming munitions to deflect by up to 25°.
The front of the bomb slows upon angled impact, while the rear continues, causing it to twist off course.
This concept is similar to tank armor design, which uses inhomogeneous or spaced layers to divert and reduce damage from penetrating munitions.
Strategic Warning:
There’s speculation that these bunker busters may be used imminently—possibly as early as 3 p.m., potentially signaling U.S. entry into the Iran-Israel conflict.
Trump’s confidence in U.S. capabilities may be based on misleading briefings, especially regarding:
Effectiveness of air defenses.
Accuracy and capability of bunker-buster strikes.
Conclusion:
Iran’s engineers are likely aware of U.S. strike doctrines and have probably designed facilities accordingly.
Targeting and destroying such bunkers is much harder than presented—and success requires extremely accurate intelligence and direct-hit capability, which may not exist.
Overall, the faith in bunker buster success is questionable, and U.S. political leaders may be basing decisions on overly optimistic or flawed assumptions.

[gakakkad]

why not just use a tactical nuke. if you are blowing a nuke facility with conventional weapons you'll likely create contamination anyway. so i don't know how much more significant a tactical nuke can get.

[A_Gupta]

MIT Prof Ted Postol critically examines the U.S. GBU-57 bunker buster bomb, its claimed capabilities, and the real-world limitations in using such weapons against deep, hardened, and potentially cleverly designed Iranian underground facilities.

.....
Iran’s engineers are likely aware of U.S. strike doctrines and have probably designed facilities accordingly.
Targeting and destroying such bunkers is much harder than presented—and success requires extremely accurate intelligence and direct-hit capability, which may not exist.
Overall, the faith in bunker buster success is questionable, and U.S. political leaders may be basing decisions on overly optimistic or flawed assumptions.

1. Has the IAEA visited Fordow?

Answer - yes. Therefore, the US and Israelis have the entire layout of the part that the IAEA has visited. They likely have more than that.

2. Did Israel start a war with Iran to destroy its nuclear capability without a plan with a reasonable chance of success to destroy Fordow?

Answer - No. I doubt that they are that stupid. I also would not discount the ingenuity of the Israel that can pull off the Hezbollah pager bomb stunt. It also means that while the Israelis might have as plan A drawing the US into the conflict, they also have a plan B, because they know that Trump is unpredictable and unreliable.

3. So are the bunker buster bombs going to do the job?

Answer - the learned Professor is likely right that the bunker buster bombs by themselves cannot destroy Fordow. But who limits the Israelis/US to just that?

But just silly wild guesses, suppose Israel gets an unprotected hole into Fordow, what if they flood the facility with corrosive fluorine gas? Or what if they can put a dirty bomb into the facility that makes the place too radioactive for humans for the next century?

My faith is in a nearly limitless capability of Israel to astound its enemies and surprise its friends, in imaginative plans and in execution of the plans. Their track record, my earliest awareness of which was their 1976 Entebbe airport operation, is stellar.

[Aditya_V]

Can the US transfer Tomohawks to Israel and are Isreali F16, F15 capable of launching the Air launched versions, could be useful in going into tunnel entrances and ending up closing them.

[drnayar]

just use multiple MOABs ! who says it is limited to one strike , really doubt anything can withstand a few hits from that weapon

[gakakkad]

Can the US transfer Tomohawks to Israel and are Isreali F16, F15 capable of launching the Air launched versions, could be useful in going into tunnel entrances and ending up closing them.

I totally hope tomahawks are used against Iran . They have a tendency of falling in neighboring countries.

[skumar]

Questions for Iran
Does Iran still maintain its official policy of the destruction of the state of Israel and cultivating terrorist groups in support of this policy?
Does any state deserve to have this existential threat hanging over it for decades?
When will Iran abjure this stupid policy openly?

Questions for Israel
Do Netanyahu and Israel have a 30+ year history of lying about the Iranian nuclear program - about it being "almost ready" or "will be ready in 1-2 years"? Has Israel not cried wolf too often?
Did Netanyahu lie in the UN about Iraqi WMDs that was one of the many factors that cost at least half a million lives?

[Vayutuvan]

just use multiple MOABs ! who says it is limited to one strike , really doubt anything can withstand a few hits from that weapon

In fact they use two MOABS - one to blast a big crater and the second follows immediately and hits at the center of the crater where the hole dug by the first MOAB is the deepest.

[bala]

just use multiple MOABs ! who says it is limited to one strike , really doubt anything can withstand a few hits from that weapon

In fact they use two MOABS - one to blast a big crater and the second follows immediately and hits at the center of the crater where the hole dug by the first MOAB is the deepest.

Why MOABs? They can use Brahmos using Navic precise to 45 cm (<.5 m) accuracy down a vent chute to do the job. Nur Khan C&C is prior exhibit A. An Indian Navy ship can help, .. but, but DJT/US etc must sign the trade deal favorable to India and eject AssIam Manure from any USdostiship and agree to free Tibet from CCP.

[pravula]

In fact they use two MOABS - one to blast a big crater and the second follows immediately and hits at the center of the crater where the hole dug by the first MOAB is the deepest.

Why MOABs? They can use Brahmos using Navic precise to 45 cm (<.5 m) accuracy down a vent chute to do the job. Nur Khan C&C is prior exhibit A. An Indian Navy ship can help, .. but, but DJT/US etc must sign the trade deal favorable to India and eject AssIam Manure from any USdostiship and agree to free Tibet from CCP.

You mean like this?

https://tenor.com/bFlwE.gif

[Manish_P]

Can the US transfer Tomohawks to Israel and are Isreali F16, F15 capable of launching the Air launched versions, could be useful in going into tunnel entrances and ending up closing them.

I totally hope tomahawks are used against Iran . They have a tendency of falling in neighboring countries.

They might well be shipped to the neighbouring country soon... Packaged nicely with gift wrapping. No need for falling...

[ricky_v]

Sir, your crystal gazing has a tendency to be accurate and so thanks.

Instinctively i thought the FDF will use a re-revolutionised Iran to give concessions to Pak (Oil and other essentials) so that Pak can continue to be the Khans cats paw against a rising Bharatvarsh. It will also help that Iran can contribute to the rising costs of keeping Pak afloat. And since the pressure will be off the yehudis, Khan can give more concentrated attention to Russia-China.

Tougher times for us ahead perhaps. Interesting for sure.

We need to grow stronger. And Faster. Exponentially faster in the next 10-20 years.

Need to have a good succession plan in place post NaMo.

you are too kind, sir, thank you for that

the point that you make above is one of the likeliest outcomes of this mess, tying up a rising neutral pole by weakening a nearby local level adversary and strengthening a loyal local irritant would just be the type of move that the fdf likes, the grouping would resemble the short lived CENTO; hopefully our powers that be have gamed such a scenario

in terms of the iranians themselves, i think the new country will find a new reason for existence, these people have been in and out of almost every peoples histories', such will not meekly acquiescence to a silent existence but will aim for a new cause which might grip some of our own in some modicum of passion

re: a pluralistic islamic society, the big players in the islamic polity have moved or started moving towards that position, turkey is already there, saudia, other emirates, indonesia, its almost as if the expectation of all the world populace is democracy and pluralism in some form or the other, its what comes after that is the distinguishing feature - like india is a democracy but its defining feature would be the cooperative federalism to the smallest grouping possible, the panchayat system, i think the islamic world is ripe for an analogous position of its own which would a troubling development - when sikes and picot divided up the erstwhile ottoman empire, they were shrewd enough, following years of long strife with the ottomans to draw boundaries so that all the new formed countries in the region would remain in perpetual strife - a similar thing happened in africa, but there they still have not come to grips with what defines their nation; the newer arab nations used to a system assembled themselves as best as they could though there were always schisms of religion, race

for the current fdf leaders, history begins in 1991, with the dissolution of the ussr and the fall of the berlin wall, societal progress and human langour now posits that democracy in some form be observed - such will not be enough to undo the sykes picot arrangement though it will increase the cohesion

orthodox societies such as pakistan and bangladesh do not understand the above and act very surprised that the leadership of the ummah is less conservative than they themselves, but they will fall in line with the global movement, pakis are after all the avowed caravan guards and beedis are the global poor that the momin donate to maintain their monthly piety zakaat levels

[Amber G.]

Iranian media says Pak Army chief Asim Munir leaked location details of Iran’s top military commander, Mohammad Hossein Baqeri whom he met at the end of May. (Baqeri was killed in strikes few days back. Pak is playing double game as usual.)

[Dilbu]

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei names potential successors in case he is killed: Report

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has identified three senior clerics as potential successors in the event of his death, according to The New York Times, citing three Iranian officials. Under Iran’s constitution, the death of a supreme leader triggers a selection process led by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, this process has been used only once, when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was chosen as successor in 1989. Khamenei has taken an extraordinary series of steps to preserve the Islamic Republic ever since Israel launched a series of surprise attacks last Friday, the report said.

According to the NYT report, Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a cleric closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and long rumored to be a front-runner, is not among the chosen candidates. Iran’s former President Ebrahim Raisi, who had also been widely seen as a top contender, died in a helicopter crash in 2024, eliminating another key figure from succession considerations.

Iran’s constitution places the responsibility for selecting a new Supreme Leader on the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical council. This mechanism has only been used once since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Khamenei himself was appointed in 1989. But with the country now embroiled in conflict, Khamenei is reportedly intent on avoiding a prolonged power vacuum, pushing for a swift appointment to preserve the Islamic Republic’s continuity.

The NYT report also noted that since Israel launched a surprise wave of attacks last Friday, Khamenei has taken unprecedented security precautions. He has remained largely secluded in his fortified compound in central Tehran, the “beit rahbari” or leader’s house, and has issued only two pre-recorded public messages, denouncing what he called a “forced war” and vowing Iran would not surrender.

[Cyrano]

If the MOABs caused entry and exit tunnels to collapse then whatever is there will be inaccessible for quite some time, with several dozens of mil and tech staff stuck inside. Perhaps that's why Bibi said "we have set back iran's N plans by atleast a couple of years".

[Manish_P]

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei names potential successors in case he is killed: Report

According to the NYT report, Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a cleric closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and long rumored to be a front-runner, is not among the chosen candidates....

Trying to save his son...

Knowing the Israelis and the Americans, they will take him out anyway

[rajkumar]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg3rzj8emjt

Summary

The US bombs three major nuclear sites in Iran, bringing the country directly into the Israel-Iran conflict

• Donald Trump says the strikes "totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities, and tells Tehran to "make peace" or face "far greater" attacks in future

• Israel's president tells the BBC that Iran's nuclear programme was hit "substantially" but the full details are still to emerge

• In response, Iran's foreign minister warns of "everlasting consequences" to the "outrageous" strikes

• The UN's nuclear watchdog says no increase in radiation levels has been detected

• As Israel and Iran continue their attacks, what are Iran's options now?

[VKumar]

Probably all equipment that can be moved waa already done.

[A_Gupta]

Before and after satellite images of Fordow
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/post-st ... an-8731666

[A_Gupta]

Evacuation of Fordow? (Picture included)
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-nuclear-s ... ty-2088918

“ Satellite imagery captured ahead of U.S. strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites showed "unusual" movement around the entrance to Iran's Fordow enrichment facility.

Pictures taken on Thursday and Friday showed "unusual truck and vehicular activity" close to the entrance of the underground Fordow complex south of Tehran, satellite imagery firm Maxar said late on Saturday.”

[chetak]

New Hi-Res imagery clearly shows the entry of 3 GBU-57s per aim point - for a total of 6 of these munitions dropped at Fordow.




https://x.com/Iyervval/status/193676211 ... 56/photo/1


https://x.com/Iyervval/status/193676211 ... 56/photo/2




https://x.com/Iyervval/status/193676211 ... 56/photo/3



https://x.com/detresfa_/status/19367271 ... 89/photo/1

[A_Gupta]

Via The Guardian:

US military chief warns Iranian retaliation would be an 'incredibly poor choice'
The US most senior military official has warned strongly against any retaliation from Iran, as he gave details of the strikes against Iran in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Speaking at a press conference at the Pentagon alongside secretary of defence Pete Hegseth after Operation Midnight Hammer, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen Dan Caine said: “Our forces remain on high alert, and are fully postured to respond to any Iranian retaliation or proxy attacks which would be an incredibly poor choice. We will defend ourselves. The safety of our service members and civilians remains our highest priority.”

Caine said the attack was the largest B2 strike in history, and was met by no Iranian resistance, either from surface to air missiles or from fighter jets. He told reporters some planes were still in the air as he spoke on Sunday morning from the east coast of the US.

He said the US used deception manoeuvres into the Pacific at the early stages of the operation, and later with jets flying ahead of the main attack group, to allow jets to get to the three nuclear sites in Iran.

He said 14 30,000lb Mops (massive ordinance penetrator) bombs were used on two nuclear sites, the first time they have been deployed.

Seven B2 spirit bombers were deployed on the main operation to Iran, flying eastwards from continental US, he told reporters.

As well as the bombs being dropped by the US air force, a US submarine launched more than 24 Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles on targets at Isfahan Gen Caine confirmed.

The entire operation involved more than 125 US aircraft, he added.

“This was a complex and high risk mission carried out with exceptional skill and discipline by our joint force,” he said.