PAK-FA and FGFA Thread

vic · Post by **vic** » 27 Jan 2014 21:32

I think that PAKFA is a good plane but a poor deal. Similar to screw driver giri deal of AL-55, shakti engine, mirage upgrade, Mig-29 upgrade deals. IAF also did the right thin to kill the label chipkao deal GTRE was negotiating with Snecma.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Jan 2014 00:04

we have to be careful in arm chairing needs.. but could be relaxed in terms of nit picking a product.
few things are:
- pak-fa requirement - is for future (say f').
- there is no impending risk that the f' + delta f' owing to understanding what is in the deal
- it is all about risk management
- what is chippanda doing?
- what is the urgency?
- who are the middlemen?
- etc

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 28 Jan 2014 00:10

merlin wrote:It would be better for the IAF to climb down a little, get off their high horses and do the following, if they really feel that FGFA is not the way to go.

1. Forget about the Tejas Mk. 2 and go all out for 200 of Tejas Mk. 1 with improvements if they need (which can come in tranches) as long as improvements are not structural which require FCS changes and subsequent lots of testing.
2. Cancel FGFA.
3. Put their full weight and money where their mouths are and go all out on the AMCA. Full focus should get us an AMCA in 10 years from start point. So if they start in 2015, you can get it in 2025. In squadron service. We will not get FGFA until 2020 at least so just another five years will get them a home grown proper stealth platform.
4. For numbers and to tide over the situation get the Rafale with the understanding that Rafale should be the last fighter that IAF buys from abroad.

+1

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Jan 2014 00:16

that would not work imho.. mk1->mk2->amca is the ideal path (like the agni series, where the technology demonstration can happen in the earlier models and prototypes). but the real kick is getting the mk1 FoC.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 28 Jan 2014 00:35

merlin wrote:It would be better for the IAF to climb down a little, get off their high horses and do the following, if they really feel that FGFA is not the way to go.

1. Forget about the Tejas Mk. 2 and go all out for 200 of Tejas Mk. 1 with improvements if they need (which can come in tranches) as long as improvements are not structural which require FCS changes and subsequent lots of testing.
2. Cancel FGFA.
3. Put their full weight and money where their mouths are and go all out on the AMCA. Full focus should get us an AMCA in 10 years from start point. So if they start in 2015, you can get it in 2025. In squadron service. We will not get FGFA until 2020 at least so just another five years will get them a home grown proper stealth platform.
4. For numbers and to tide over the situation get the Rafale with the understanding that Rafale should be the last fighter that IAF buys from abroad.

+1. I feel if we invest the same amount of money ($6-8 billion) in our mil-av complex, we can really build a strong aviation industry within our country. Provide that support to AMCA, and we should have a good fighter by 2025.

Regarding Rafale being the last fighter from abroad, I wouldn't like to limit it to that. But if we can get good LCA-Mk-II/III, and AMCA, and have good engine by then, we should consider the money well spent. Handing over $6-8 billion to another country for design and development, while it brings limited knowledge to our country is plain foolishness.

Invest the same in good wind tunnels/super computers/R&D labs/engine testing labs and give them autonomy with salaries etc not being linked to government payscales. Involve private industry right from day 1 with assured orders after design is frozen. $6 billion can do wonders for our aviation industry.

Hari Sud · Post by **Hari Sud** » 28 Jan 2014 02:31

The only reason India is teeming up with Russia for PAK-FA is to learn. The same reason applies to the French. Their Raffale will be leant and understood for future designs.

The MIG -21 production in India was a learning excercise. That is how LCA design and it's prototype was built.

Nobody just hands over decades of experience for free.

Even if you spend $6-8 at home, it will still not result in a high quality stealth fighter. It will be average or below average fighter like the Chinese design. Then you will be forced to make tall claims but never be able to show and demonstrate the stealth fighter in public.

I think that pairing with Russians is a great idea. Learn as much as you can. Release your money only if they outsource more work to you. If they need the money they would understand.

In this discussion, a highly stupid air officer who likes F-35 and a highly stupid Business Standard reporter paired together to blow the subject into public domain.

Court Martial of this senior air officer is due. It will be an excercise which would teach senior and junior officers some descipline. It is highly irregular to show minutes of a military related meeting to a reporter, even if he is a friend. In this case, it would appear that the reporter Ajai Shukla is acting as an agent of F-35 in India.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 28 Jan 2014 03:11

Hari Sud wrote:The only reason India is teeming up with Russia for PAK-FA is to learn. The same reason applies to the French. Their Raffale will be leant and understood for future designs.

Neither the Russians nor the French have any interest in 'teaching' India anything.

The MIG -21 production in India was a learning excercise. That is how LCA design and it's prototype was built.

The Tejas was developed primarily by ADA/DRDO not by HAL. And any learning was from the Ajeet's development rather than from license producing the MiG-21.

Nobody just hands over decades of experience for free.

You can't just buy decades of experience either.

Even if you spend $6-8 at home, it will still not result in a high quality stealth fighter. It will be average or below average fighter like the Chinese design. Then you will be forced to make tall claims but never be able to show and demonstrate the stealth fighter in public.

We've spent $1 billion on the LCA program (a fraction of what it would cost in the west or even Russia) and have a 4th generation aircraft near-perfect for our requirements to show for it.

I think that pairing with Russians is a great idea. Learn as much as you can. Release your money only if they outsource more work to you. If they need the money they would understand.

We wouldn't 'learn' anything from 'outsourced' work.

In this discussion, a highly stupid air officer who likes F-35 and a highly stupid Business Standard reporter paired together to blow the subject into public domain.

Court Martial of this senior air officer is due. It will be an excercise which would teach senior and junior officers some descipline. It is highly irregular to show minutes of a military related meeting to a reporter, even if he is a friend. In this case, it would appear that the reporter Ajai Shukla is acting as an agent of F-35 in India.

Court martial the Deputy Chief of Air Staff on grounds of stupidity.... *sigh*.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Jan 2014 04:15

Viv S wrote:Neither the Russians nor the French have any interest in 'teaching' India anything.

*.

none will.. this is the reason i keep saying whenever GTRE calls for international help.. defintiely a big NO NO on niche technology.. gimmeabreak! will India do so to any country? even with big sums of moolahs at premium price?

no chance! learn the hard way boyz.. all from first principles. that is the knowledge will stay for ever... rest would be all screwdriver or component based supplies onlee.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 28 Jan 2014 04:25

SaiK wrote:
Viv S wrote:Neither the Russians nor the French have any interest in 'teaching' India anything.

*.
none will.. this is the reason i keep saying whenever GTRE calls for international help.. defintiely a big NO NO on niche technology.. gimmeabreak! will India do so to any country? even with big sums of moolahs at premium price?

no chance! learn the hard way boyz.. all from first principles. that is the knowledge will stay for ever... rest would be all screwdriver or component based supplies onlee.

Then you do agree with me.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Jan 2014 04:54

agree about what?

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 28 Jan 2014 05:56

Hari Sud wrote: In this case, it would appear that the reporter Ajai Shukla is acting as an agent of F-35 in India.

Scrap the MMRCA: buy US F-35s

Given the global buzz around the Indian Air Force’s ongoing US $10 billion procurement of 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA), my suggestion to scrap the process and, instead, go in for a straight buy of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightening II fighters is admittedly radical. But consider this: when the F-35 enters service, a couple of years from now, it will comfortably outclass every one of the six fighters that the IAF is currently evaluating. Thereafter, through the entire 30-40 year service life of the selected MMRCA, the IAF will fly a second rung fighter when it could have gotten the best.

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2010/10/s ... f-35s.html

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 28 Jan 2014 06:02

Viv S wrote: Neither the Russians nor the French have any interest in 'teaching' India anything.

Yup, only amrikans are always out to teach us;

that is = "a lesson'

through sanctions.

It was not americans but french and russians who had confiscated even Desi made parts and kicked out our scientists insultingly at the time of Shakti Tests.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 28 Jan 2014 06:26

Neither the Russians nor the French have any interest in 'teaching' India anything.

Not just any interest, on the 5th gen front, there is little either has to teach. They themselves have to learn a lot themselves. 5th gen is a very, very difficult set of technologies.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 28 Jan 2014 07:03

Is anyone going to at least claim 'that amrikans are dying/ready to teach us something'. Their ToT (real one not screwdrivertype) for F 35 will be much more and authentic then russian french pseudo type.

Or it is just going to be smallifying whatever we get from france russia, while advocating sanctionprone 'effs' purchases.

US sanctioned us during Shakti.
Russia didn't France didn't. Great Shri Jacques Chirac even issued a statement "that France understands India's compulsions".
------- Oh commmon no big deal ---------- shrug of shoulders.

US even rations the number of launchers for the sale of javelin missile as it may tilt the balance too much in India's favour.

(As if we're buying this missile for just the aesthetics.)
The main thing is to notice that US is worried about pork'stani well being as if about a brother or relative.

While France may have sold agostas for money - but hardly has sleepless nights over pakistan's well being.

So its more like a javed akhtar type of equal - equal "there are fanatics and communals on both sides of the border".

Some want to brush aside russia's help on Arihant or leasing of Chakra as a small thing which they did in their self-interests.

While americans didn't want us to use trenton bought with our money to be used for war.

It'll never be - I repeat never be in amrika's self-interest to lease seawolf or any nuke submarine. It'll never be - I repeat again never be in amrika's self interest to help in any tech for Arihant.

Those amrikan ******** can allow cheenis to transfer nukes to porkis and turn blind eye, they will happily look away when china steals W-87 warhead tech. They'll allow boeing to give chinese the cutting edge missile tech illegally without blinking.

But worry about Bharat getting enough Javelin launchers

thus creating difficulties for porkis.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 28 Jan 2014 07:54

Dhananjay wrote:
Yup, only amrikans are always out to teach us;

through sanctions.

And the LCA flies on an amrikan engine

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 28 Jan 2014 08:32

Dhananjay wrote:Is anyone going to at least claim 'that amrikans are dying/ready to teach us something'.

It appears you are hoping somebody will make that claim. But since nobody has, you're effectively reduced to delivering a monologue on that point.

I mentioned the Russians and French because the Rafale and PAK FA were under discussion. And yes, it applies to the Americans, Swedes, Brits & Koreans as well. If domestic technology is to be developed, the requisite time and resources need to be invested in it, rather than investing it in ToT & license production, and hoping for the best.

It was not americans but french and russians who had confiscated even Desi made parts and kicked out our scientists insultingly at the time of Shakti Tests.

Most of China's weaponry (including its nuclear program) has its origins in Russia. Most of their aircraft use Russian engines, their air defence relies heavily on S-300 derivatives and the most lethal element of their undersea fleet is Russian built. The modernization of the PLA into the Asia's predominant military force, has to a large extent been driven by Russia. I'm glad though the lack of sanctions from that end gives you comfort.

And FYI, France has led the initiative to remove the European arms embargo on China. If it had its way, our worry today wouldn't have been affording IAF Rafales but facing off against PLAAF Rafales. (Care to guess why that hasn't happened yet?)

Fact is, the actions of every country in the world are first and foremost, designed to serve its own self-interest. Its naive to expect a country to confirm to a humanoid personality (friend/enemy/loyal/unreliable and so on).

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 28 Jan 2014 08:43

^^^^^

Have we already forgotten the news item that France has doubled the price of the Rafale? And, the M2K upgrades? ????

These things will happen even more often. India is getting better at these games and providers will have less opportunities to make money from Indian requirements in the future.

As a FYI, here is an article showing how complex things are right now:

India-Israel Defense Cooperation

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Jan 2014 09:07

we should not screw up requirements, but we can delay components and LRU imports till it gets matured into home grown systems. GE engines are fine with LCA, as long as Kaveri progresses in the hindsight. programs must be measured, analyzed, and assimilated for long term strategic plans.

slow and steady, plug and play, integrated and innovate is the only way out for us.. till we bridge the gap that we suffered due to 50 years of administrative negligence.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 29 Jan 2014 19:08

NOT related to the FGFA, but relevant to the topic:

Jan 22, 2014 :: Russia Offers Joint Productions On All Future Defense Deals With India, As IAF Reportedly Criticizes FGFA Deal

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jan 2014 21:55

I would say NO. We don't need joint productions at program level, however we can have joint productions at sub-component levels.. we have significant disconnects at program level. Sorry, say NO!

joint production for what? whatever they r&d to their specifications? a big no!

we have a separate charter? don't we?

DRDO must answer, and also answer for failure corrections.

Will · Post by **Will** » 29 Jan 2014 22:14

self deleted..

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 29 Jan 2014 23:35

NRao wrote: Jan 22, 2014 :: Russia Offers Joint Productions On All Future Defense Deals With India, As IAF Reportedly Criticizes FGFA Deal

We already have a joint production arrangement on the BrahMos. The Russians are yet to order a single missile from the company preferring to induct as well as export the P-800 Oniks instead.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Jan 2014 07:08

all the money being poured in FGFA and MRCA is surely sounding the death blow of the AMCA. trickle funded, stepchild, disinterested user...its going nowhere except CG and models in aeroindia.

one must not forget the J-35 is *flying today* ...we are not even in final config, let alone proto build stage.

as it stands the J-35 will enter IOC atleast a decade before the AMCA(if it ever IOCs ie)

export model J-35 will be PAFs next fighter

vic · Post by **vic** » 30 Jan 2014 07:37

In Brahmos missile JV, Russains still supply the seeker and engine which constitutes 90% of the cost of the missile. What ToT, Knowledge or experience we got for USD 400 million we paid for JV.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 30 Jan 2014 08:21

invest $5billion in kaveri upthrusted, and another $5billion on stealth for AMCA.
million times worth than investing in pakfa, imho. of course it has be a measured injection.
returns are way too high, and unimaginable.

vic · Post by **vic** » 30 Jan 2014 13:05

We paid USD 500 Million for Al-55 and we will not even get to even paint the label HAL on it till first 100 engines, by which time most probably the Production of HJT-36 in HAL will be over. Even if it continues, we get only do SKD and CKD kits for looooooooooog time.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 30 Jan 2014 15:00

vic wrote:In Brahmos missile JV, Russains still supply the seeker and engine which constitutes 90% of the cost of the missile. What ToT, Knowledge or experience we got for USD 400 million we paid for JV.

So what do we make, if the seeker and the engine is from russia ?

vic · Post by **vic** » 30 Jan 2014 18:15

Container and some parts of body.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Jan 2014 18:28

I think the avionics is made in India. Software.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 30 Jan 2014 18:57

It comes down to the same topic. We have mastered the software. We need to get serious about the engine. We need a IGMDP equivalent of engine and turbine development. One of the posters in the Kaveri thread has suggested the same.

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 30 Jan 2014 20:18

Christopher Sidor wrote:We need a IGMDP equivalent of engine and turbine development. One of the posters in the Kaveri thread has suggested the same.

We did hear about the GATET initiative by GTRE. Just no progress reported yet on that..

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 31 Jan 2014 00:18

So the AS article is actually a recommendation for us to dump the FGFA and to buy the JSF (getting no stealth tech input in the bargain) ! The JSF he says will arrive in 2 yrs. time will outclass the rest! Tell that to AWST,Sweetman,many US experts,and the Oz brigade for starters.AS should read BR's own td. on the issue.The latest cracks problem,apart from other multiple issues shows that the JSF is far from being a developed aircraft. Secondly,the cost factor,now est. at $199M per aircraft will cost twice as much as an FGFA/T-50.Thirdly,its combat capabilities are a subject of controversy,some say no better than an F-16.

There is no doubt that India has to bite the bullet reg. its share of FGFA work ,and decide fast before the aircraft enters production in initial avatar sometime around 2017/18 if it wants a ride in developing our variant.The Chinese will field their stealth aircraft/s by 2020.If the IAF wants to possess our own by then ,jumping aboard the FGFA/T-50 bandwagon asap needs to be done.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 31 Jan 2014 00:46

Philip wrote:So the AS article is actually a recommendation for us to dump the FGFA and to buy the JSF (getting no stealth tech input in the bargain) !

When you say we're going to get 'stealth input' from the FGFA, are you suggesting we'll be able to 'stealthily' steal it while the Russians aren't looking? Or will they simply hand it over (perhaps along with the T-90's barrel and armor tech) ?

The JSF he says will arrive in 2 yrs. time will outclass the rest! Tell that to AWST,Sweetman,many US experts,and the Oz brigade for starters.

And when he's done with the 'starters', he can move on to the 13 air forces and 3 navies ordering it.

AS should read BR's own td. on the issue.

Indeed he should.

The latest cracks problem,apart from other multiple issues shows that the JSF is far from being a developed aircraft.

We can rest assured that the PAK FA will be flawless. And if god-forbid some issue is found, the Russians will lose no time in briefing India on the issue and involve us in the modifications.

Secondly,the cost factor,now est. at $199M per aircraft will cost twice as much as an FGFA/T-50.Thirdly,its combat capabilities are a subject of controversy,some say no better than an F-16.

How about you come up with a source for that figure.

There is no doubt that India has to bite the bullet reg. its share of FGFA work ,and decide fast before the aircraft enters production in initial avatar sometime around 2017/18 if it wants a ride in developing our variant.The Chinese will field their stealth aircraft/s by 2020.If the IAF wants to possess our own by then ,jumping aboard the FGFA/T-50 bandwagon asap needs to be done.

Bite the bullet. That is to say gift Russia $6 billion for the privilege of watching them refine the performance and avionics of an aircraft well past the prototype stage, perhaps with a little outsourcing thrown our way.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 Jan 2014 01:07

FGFA is expected to cost $30 billion for 144 planes? That is around $208 mil a plane!! ??

http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories ... ghters.htm

Do not tell this to anyone, the ALIS system for "and the Oz brigade for starters" is doing very, very well.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 31 Jan 2014 05:44

Yes,how they've cut their orders to "diet" portions too waiting for the dish to arrive! Frankly they're up the creek with no alternative.So they have to stomach what Uncle Sam's kitchen throws up,and chef LM is still scratching his head as to how to fix the dish while increasing the price of it! The AS article is a crude attempt at trying to sabotage the FGFA project,a yarn spun by the buy-only-yanqui touts.No aircraft programme in history has cost so much and been plagued with so many exotic problems as the JSF,new ones appear almost by the day.With the falling order book in comparison to the huge numbers expected at the project's inception,the search is on for new victims and a last-ditch attempt is being made before the most pro-US govt, of all time gets dumped into the garbage bin.

We have a current track record with using Russian aircraft for decades that has stood us in great stead during conflict,improving upon the original designs with years of operations to have confidence in the FGFA.The lowly Bison even showed up Uncle Sam's finest when they exercised.With the track record of Sukhoi and the IAF working together to raise the Flanker capability even higher,one is confident that with a similar attitude the JV will succeed.The legitimate Q today is that given the rapid pace of the programme by the Russians,who want its induction asap,what % of input can we bring to the table and for how much? That has to be sorted out by both sides.With the Rupee's value falling each day,there's going to be little money to afford the MMRCA,FGFA and AMCA .Right now the only bird in hand is the LCA ,needed desperately to replace the MIG-21s.The AMCA is meant to arrive after MK-2 series production is over,late into the next decade.It can't meet the need for the next 10-15 years. 2 $15-30B programmes for the Rafale and FGFA is simply unaffordable.There have to be compromises somewhere.BY 2020 the need for a stealth fighter will be overwhelming when the PRC's birds are inducted into service.

Related issues:BMos vs Yakhont.MTCR.The BMos missile's range is shackled by it.Russia has and needs missiles with far superior range,its CW anti-carrier missiles with N-tipped warheads a case in point.However,wait for the hypersonic version.That it will acquire and that version unlikely to ever be exported.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 01 Feb 2014 06:40

Criticism of FGFA project unfounded - Russian strategic analyst

The reports criticising the Indo-Russian project are aimed at diverting attention from the financial problems that the Indian Air Force will face if a contract to purchase Rafale jets is signed, according to Konstantin Makiyenko.

The Russian strategic analyst noted that under the current economic conditions, the French fighters cannot be purchased without cutting spending on other programs. “Going ahead with this project threatens to consume the whole budget for modernizing the Indian Air Force and will leave the country without any fifth-generation technologies,” Makiyenko said.

According to him, the accusation that ‘Russians have been reluctant to share design information’ is completely untrue. “Russia and India are working on the project together, and all information about it is available to Indian engineers and designers,” Makiyenko said.

http://www.redstar.ru/index.php/2011-07 ... roektu-byt

"The continuation of MMRCA project threatens to engulf all allocations for the Indian Air Force and leave the country without the fifth-generation technologies",

Regarding the 5th Gen engine..

Judge called inappropriate and biased criticism of the current engine PAK FA. The final form of technical complex engines receive the second phase, which will fully meet the criteria for the power plant of the 5th generation. Cycles of creation of modern aircraft engines are different long duration exceeding the duration of the creation of the airframe.

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 01 Feb 2014 19:56

This smear campaign isnt as black and white as it appears to be. I smell a big conspiracy as there is a no official refuting or acceptance of the claims from IAF. American and Chinese have potential competition from Pak-fa in terms of export customers. Either one or both could be behind this.

Could be a lazy HAL not demanding more workshare, could be that India is anticipating a huge price increase which is the usual in Russian deals, or Russians refused ToT on critical areas and armtwisting for more funds upfront. Could be all these things.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming weeks/months

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 01 Feb 2014 22:14

Kailash wrote:This smear campaign isnt as black and white as it appears to be. I smell a big conspiracy as there is a no official refuting or acceptance of the claims from IAF. American and Chinese have potential competition from Pak-fa in terms of export customers. Either one or both could be behind this.

This is the arms lobby creating a fake media debate which will result in them making money
If it was real they should have made similar debate with other purchases too.

The Su-27/Su-30 got lot of publicity and global acceptance once India adopted in from 1990s. The global aviation industry is afraid that another global successful product will evolve which they have no control over it. For all global successful product India as a customer is needed.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 Feb 2014 10:00

whatever, once smitten twice shy!.. we have to work out the caveats to our advantage, and after all the money spent must be accounted by proper legal and effective use.

if the success of mki is of any measure, then the attibution should go towards indian labs than russian plane as such.. and now, if the pak-fa ignores that ground reality, i would rather keep the fake media debate alive, till the product takes shape to better understanding between IAF, drdo, hal, and the russians.

we all know, abstract words can be twisted to terms at each stake holder's scale. we have to be careful on our side as the investments are way too high, and we must have a staged and well chartered plan, and that is measured by qualitative goals, and managed by objectives.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 02 Feb 2014 13:43

Acharya wrote:
Kailash wrote:This smear campaign isnt as black and white as it appears to be. I smell a big conspiracy as there is a no official refuting or acceptance of the claims from IAF. American and Chinese have potential competition from Pak-fa in terms of export customers. Either one or both could be behind this.
This is the arms lobby creating a fake media debate which will result in them making money
If it was real they should have made similar debate with other purchases too.

The Su-27/Su-30 got lot of publicity and global acceptance once India adopted in from 1990s. The global aviation industry is afraid that another global successful product will evolve which they have no control over it. For all global successful product India as a customer is needed.

The global industry in general, let alone aviation, has been afraid of India for 2 centuries now.