Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Nov 2016 17:23

hopefully not another kunduz for high ranking Emirs

Abu Mohammed ‏@Raqqa_sl1 Nov 5
2-the forces landed in Agricultural Research Building in Kasrat village south #Raqqa #Syria

Ivan Sidorenko Retweeted
Abu Mohammed ‏@Raqqa_sl1 Nov 5
#EXCLUSIVE #Raqqa Military landing by unknown forces yesterday night in Kasrat village south #Raqqa they arrested some #ISIS fighters #Syria

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Nov 2016 18:25

Blazing Fury ‏@FuryBlazing
#FSB arrests #Volgograd jihadi network financing terrorists in #Syria. Weapons, transaction documents seized

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Nov 2016 19:03

US backed rebels have already started offensive to reclaim Raqqa. While Assad is busy with liberating Aleppo.What after that? Will Raqqa stay with US backed forces or there will be fight between Sy & US backed forces?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Nov 2016 19:55

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/statu ... 0425364480

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Nov 2016 19:57

They have frenemy deal in place. i believe assad will not contest rojava except s union territory in part of hasakah.
The kurds too have no interest in spending blood and treasure on raqqa but perhaps doing it in exchange for usa support on al bab and manbij linkup front

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 07 Nov 2016 20:06

Austin wrote:https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/statu ... 0425364480

Interesting... if that graphic is correct, most of Kuznetsov's fighters will be performing strikes. Maybe the SU-33 & Mig-29k really are capable of launching with a full bomb load off the ski jump. We've always heard that's not possible due to the limitations of launching w/ski jump vs. catapault.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Nov 2016 20:13

https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/statu ... 6465954817 Footage captures the moment an IS suicide car bomb explodes in Iraq's #Mosul, narrowly missing a BBC Arabic team

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Nov 2016 20:15

Top Kurdish security official Masrour Barzani says so far in the three-week operation, ISIL has:

Deployed drones strapped with explosives
Fired long-range artillery shells filled with chlorine and mustard gas
Used highly-effective snipers

Kurdish forces have destroyed more than 50 car bombs, Barzani added.

Western Mosul – “more complex

Barzani warns that western Mosul will be a more complex campaign.

There is a vast number of narrow streets that cannot accommodate large military vehicles.

The enemy will fight to the death to defend the capital of its self-proclaimed caliphate.

Will driving ISIL out of Mosul be enough?

Barzani says not.

Mosul might be the group’s main stronghold, but security personnel are unsure about the location of ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

“He has been surrounded by good advisers, people with military and intelligence backgrounds,” he said.

“They do have some knowledge of how to protect themselves and hide.”

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Nov 2016 20:23

‘Admiral Kuznetsov’ has made its way to the Mediterranean Sea – MSM fears Russian invasion

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Nov 2016 20:24

SAA seized Tell al-Rakhm ( north-east Tell Mutah )
https://twitter.com/watanisy/status/795538323741822976

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=fr&lat=36.15 ... 6&z=16&m=b

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Nov 2016 20:26

Kurdistan has officially requested military and humanitarian aid from the #Russia/n Federation.

https://t.co/4VSQNdiUQD

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Nov 2016 20:28

RuAF from Admiral Kuznetsov involved in air strikes on Idlib , ballistic missiles were also reportedly used. Syria

Russian military command in Syria honours brigadier Mazen al-kanij director of the military security in hama with medal of courage

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Nov 2016 20:29

Tens of Suicide Attackers Killed in Terrorists' Second Round of Assaults in #Aleppo
http://bit.ly/2evcmLE

Syria's Jaafari: US paid $540 million to British PR company Bell Pottinger to create propaganda that's aggressive to the Syrian govt

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Nov 2016 20:30

Y. Kanan wrote:
Austin wrote:https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/statu ... 0425364480

Interesting... if that graphic is correct, most of Kuznetsov's fighters will be performing strikes. Maybe the SU-33 & Mig-29k really are capable of launching with a full bomb load off the ski jump. We've always heard that's not possible due to the limitations of launching w/ski jump vs. catapault.

Good Question and I have asked on a board , Hope to get some reply.

Pralay once told me that even for land based aircraft as thumb rule NTOW would be 1/4 of payload and half fuel , So for Su-34 with 12 Tons of Max Payload and more than 8 T of internal fuel , its combat payload will be 3 T of Weapons and 4-5 Tons of Fuel.

Max payload and max fuel I am told is just a myth good for advertising and airshows , Unless you want the aircraft to fly like brick and stress the airframe to its limit decreasing its life or worse develop microcracks

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Nov 2016 20:31

" Nato puts 300,000 troops on ‘HIGH ALERT’ amid fears of all out confrontation with Russia "

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/729 ... s-military

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 07 Nov 2016 20:52

Not sure where to post this... I think this is available only for UK residents... but give it a try.
Since this is relevant to what's going on in levant putting this here..

Full video on iPlayer HYPERNORMALISATION

Its pretty well made. I didn't particularly agree with the many connections he was trying to make. But it has very good old footages and interesting tid bits, which I found fascinating.

Brief from his HYPERNORMALISATION blog entry

I have a new film going up on iPlayer this Sunday - the 16th. Here’s a background to what the film is about. And a trail.

We live in a time of great uncertainty and confusion. Events keep happening that seem inexplicable and out of control. Donald Trump, Brexit, the War in Syria, the endless migrant crisis, random bomb attacks. And those who are supposed to be in power are paralysed - they have no idea what to do.

This film is the epic story of how we got to this strange place. It explains not only why these chaotic events are happening - but also why we, and our politicians, cannot understand them.

It shows that what has happened is that all of us in the West - not just the politicians and the journalists and the experts, but we ourselves - have retreated into a simplified, and often completely fake version of the world. But because it is all around us we accept it as normal.

HyperNormalisation

The film has been made specially for iplayer - and is a giant narrative spanning forty years, with an extraordinary cast of characters. They include the Assad dynasty, Donald Trump, Henry Kissinger, Patti Smith, the early performance artists in New York, President Putin, intelligent machines, Japanese gangsters, suicide bombers - and the extraordinary untold story of the rise, fall, rise again, and finally the assassination of Colonel Gaddafi.

All these stories are woven together to show how today’s fake and hollow world was created. Part of it was done by those in power - politicians, financiers and technological utopians. Rather than face up to the real complexities of the world, they retreated. And instead constructed a simpler version of the world in order to hang onto power

But it wasn’t just those in power. This strange world was built by all of us. We all went along with it because the simplicity was reassuring. And that included the left and the radicals who thought they were attacking the system. The film shows how they too retreated into this make-believe world - which is why their opposition today has no effect, and nothing ever changes.

But there is another world outside. And the film shows dramatically how it is beginning to pierce through into our simplified bubble. Forces that politicians tried to forget and bury forty years ago - that were then left to fester and mutate - but which are now turning on us with a vengeful fury.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Nov 2016 22:03

Nato and 300.000 troops? take out the usa whose troops are mostly at home and 1 division in soko and EU can barely cobble together a couple of divisions for a stand up fight?

They are geared to peace keeping and showing the flag at max brigade strength and are nowhere geared to a serious fight like a american russi or even chindian sivision. the israelis are also soft on prosperity and hype..the old israel tal types replaced with iphone conscripts who want to home every weekend.

They will all send 2 helis 2 planes and 5 tanks to eastern front to deter the bear like hollande and his 3 rafales vs daesh

When its time to kick a.. the eu will be brutally exposed as hollow drums

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Nov 2016 22:21

habal wrote:" Nato puts 300,000 troops on ‘HIGH ALERT’ amid fears of all out confrontation with Russia "

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/729 ... s-military

I.hope we see one major war call it what ever where there is major war involving major use of nuclear weapons , that's how humans will learn to live in peace for few decades till next khujli starts.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Nov 2016 06:42

November 7, 2016:
Russian Attack Helicopters Swarm in Homs Province

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Nov 2016 08:36

ratio of offensive to defensive forces in any battle is 4:1.
for Mosul, ratio of attackers is 50,000 for the 10,000 or so ISIS believed to remain back in defensive positions.

So in this context, the proposed Raqqa conquest force prepared by NATO/US/Kurds is only 30000 (total stregth of SDF) to take over the capital of ISIS. Surely more than 20k ISIS are in well dug in positions to defend their capital. So in all likelihood this is a feint to attack elsewhere.

It is worth to remind the last time the SDF attempted to "storm" Raqqa, it was in fact a diversion for their attack to Manbij.

SDF has some 30,000 in total from the border of Iraq to Afrin, lets say 5-10,000 fighters are allocated to attack Raqqa, which I still doubt it due to defense in all territory and constant fight against ISIS and Turkish backed terrorists, with much less firepower and some airpower (much less than in Iraq), tough scenario isn't it ?

Either this is a PR for the US election or another diversion, al Bab ? We will know soon enough.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Nov 2016 09:10

My theory is its not a mosulish attack on raqqa .
Goals would be...
Provide a fig leaf for usa wrt turkey as sdf moves to engulf al bab from both ends...not to take al bab erdoganji but to cut raqqa off from north syria...

There is a 40km belt of light defended area north and east of raqqa which be taken over to reduce daesh interlands and resourced

From shahdadi they can move a little south to further squeeze the desert routes from tal afar to deir azzor and raqqa. There must be plenty of rats moving up and down that channel....usaf could send bombers and armed drones to hit if serious about this gig.

The heartland of isis the raqqa tabqah deir azzor will need more forces and perhaps a push by pmu to deir azzor to force daesh into open desert battle where air power and arty is more effective....i dont see assad having resources to push east from palmyra until after aleppo and idlib matters are settled.

So this euphrates wrath is phase1 low hanging fruit and phase is the mosul v2. if daesh attacks strong in ph1 usaf will crush them so they will retreat easily.

The monkeys in the mix are the fsa also racing south to al bab. worst case they will take al bab but rojava linkup will occure just south of it.

Saa will move out of kuweires and strike deir hafr ... this will end the long time threat to khanasser road also and push one set of rats back to tabqah

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 10:01

16 US servicemen killed, 27 injured in fighting for Iraq’s Mosul — source

More:
http://tass.com/world/910861

MOSCOW, November 7. /TASS/. Sixteen US servicemen have been killed and 27 more injured in the ongoing operation of liberating the Iraqi city of Mosul from Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization, a military-diplomatic source in Moscow told TASS on Monday.

"Over the first two weeks of the ground military operation in Mosul, 16 US servicemen were killed and another 27 were injured. Most instances of death and injuries of servicemen represent the result of hitting a landmine, or coming under artillery or mortar shellings," the source said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 10:04

Y. Kanan wrote:
Austin wrote:https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/statu ... 0425364480

Interesting... if that graphic is correct, most of Kuznetsov's fighters will be performing strikes. Maybe the SU-33 & Mig-29k really are capable of launching with a full bomb load off the ski jump. We've always heard that's not possible due to the limitations of launching w/ski jump vs. catapault.

Got some reply from Pralay on Payload/Combat radius of Su-33 and Mig-29K

Su-33 / MiG-29K
Normal combat load: 3000 kg. / 2500 kg
Real: 500 - 2000 kg / 500 - 2000 kg
Combat radius: 850 - 1050 km / 950 km

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 10:05

Good infographic regarding the Kuznetsov task group.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 10:11

The Deployment of Kuznetsov should be a great combat experience for the CBG , Rare is such opportunity comes to deploy CBG in combat and this is first one for Russian Navy in past 25 years or so.

They would be field testing the Su-33K which is upgraded with SVP-24 and the new Mig-29K in real combat plus couplese of ships with Kalbir , ASW , Rescue ,ships of other class all working in cohesion with Russian Airforce deployed plus the SAA ground forces.

Must be a Huge Learning experience for the Russian Navy and more particularly CBG deployment , lots of short falls will be noticed and they can then fix/fine tune it along with tactics.

Forgot to mention Helicopter based AEW Ka-31R are also deployed for the first time in combat , So are the Ka-52K attack helicopter

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 08 Nov 2016 10:12

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/statu ... 6465954817 Footage captures the moment an IS suicide car bomb explodes in Iraq's #Mosul, narrowly missing a BBC Arabic team

Looking at the footage a few times, it seems it's a petrol-tank exploding. If it was a bomb explosion that close, the sharpnels or nails would have killed, maimed all of those standing there.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 13:48

Hundreds gather outside UK embassy in Moscow in so-called 'embassy wars' over Syria (VIDEO)

https://www.rt.com/news/365679-uk-embas ... a-protest/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Nov 2016 13:53

..mass grave with 100 beheaded bodies found near mosul
..cheetah forces and ndf attack palmyra to arak supported by hinds and havocs
..tiger forces capture entire 1070 in aleppo by routing jaf
..raqqa advance halted on day2 ...50 kia wia on day1 as daesh ambushed 6 vehicles. Nato jets hit tabqa.
..deir azzor beats off another attack

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 14:40

https://twitter.com/sbobkov/status/792102841712115712

All blue chips on the table: #RussianNavy destroyer #Smetlivy set sail from #Crimea to #Syria, with Naval Infantry spetsnaz unit on board.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 14:42

Naval Infantary Spetsnaz might be to provide security to Tartus Base and Naval Asssets , May be there are under water specialists (frogman )

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Nov 2016 15:08

>> tiger forces capture entire 1070 in aleppo by routing jaf

this is a big deal.

It gives SAA control over Mutta Hill which overlooks entire South Eastern region below. Mutah and Tal al Rakhmah fully under the allied forces control, the terrorists inside 1070 had no other alternative but to retreat. It is important to mention that the terrorists put up a fierce resistance on those two hills which naturally skyrocket their KIA and WIA under heave strikes and bombings, see video below for the intensity of it.

https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/795800771514265601

What comes next is al Hikma area will be rat free very soon, so thus goes Aqrab and most likely al Assad district. This was a vital battle, with the collapse of rat defenses in this area will mean the end of the western Aleppo offensive for them and the loss of all ground gained in /JulyAugust and recently at the cost of many thousands of trained & well equipped terrorists.

The situation in Aleppo is moving into a solid front line, safer for civilians, while the terrorists inside eastern Aleppo will have no choice but to surrender in time, or die slowly in battle of attrition.

After the western wall is safe, the allied forces may advance deep into terrorists held land. This was a huge victory.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Nov 2016 15:16

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... -district/

"Minutes ago, a large contingent of Tiger Forces, backed by Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), imposed full-control over the strategic 1070 Al-Hamdaniyah Housing Proiject in southwest Aleppo after a 24 hour long battle with Jaysh Al-Fateh (Army of Conquest)."

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Nov 2016 15:17

Local sources expect the intensification of Russia-led military operations in Syria in period between November 10 and November 22. The rumors relates to alleged requests to the Syrian military from the Russian Navy for carrying out flights and firing operations off Syria’s coast."

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 15:26

Beyond Allepo is there no other areas to capture for SAA ? All news leads me to believe all that is left is Allepo City ?

Is SAA also fighting and capturing other areas so far not under its control in Syria ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Nov 2016 16:05

there is entire western aleppo state + Idlib + north Hama to capture. its a huge area.

China ch4 drone racks up a notable kill
Haidar Sumeri ‏@IraqiSecurity 13h13 hours ago
Abu Maryam, the Da'ish "military leader of Wilayat Baghdad & Diyala" killed by an Iraqi drone strike in Tarmiyah, north of #Iraq's Baghdad.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwsFQQ4XUAAyFGC.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Nov 2016 16:06

and we are still preparing to spend a lot in unarmed predators ... the world has moved along a tad while we were playing with rustom

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Nov 2016 16:07

drone footage of a vbied being taken out by a hashd gunner
https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/statu ... 6045671425

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Nov 2016 16:08

ARV used to haul in a tunnel boring machine https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/statu ... 5871691776

this explains how they are able to dig so much of tunnels without a huge mining cadre

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Nov 2016 16:29

Singha wrote:there is entire western aleppo state + Idlib + north Hama to capture. its a huge area.

China ch4 drone racks up a notable kill
Haidar Sumeri ‏@IraqiSecurity 13h13 hours ago
Abu Maryam, the Da'ish "military leader of Wilayat Baghdad & Diyala" killed by an Iraqi drone strike in Tarmiyah, north of #Iraq's Baghdad.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwsFQQ4XUAAyFGC.jpg

I always wonder why are chinese drone not being used in Syria ,There are so many targets of opportunity that pop up and there is drone flying overhead but not the armed ones

Atulya P · Post by **Atulya P** » 08 Nov 2016 16:52

Austin wrote:Beyond Allepo is there no other areas to capture for SAA ? All news leads me to believe all that is left is Allepo City ?

Is SAA also fighting and capturing other areas so far not under its control in Syria ?

That's what I was thinking. As per http://syria.liveuamap.com/, nothing else has changed anywhere in quite some time now.
How is Homs holding out when it is completely surrounded? After Palmyra, there is no eastward push to Dez?