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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 23 Dec 2011 09:14
by Samudragupta
Bji,
Isn't that will be good outcome..specially since the battlelines in Asia seems to be already drawn
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 23 Dec 2011 09:20
by Muppalla
^^^
God forbid - BD's current PM's removal actually can be atributed to Chinese agression on India.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 24 Dec 2011 23:01
by brihaspati
Since then more disturbing signals coming in. Things could happen in both/either-or of Pak and BD. In some ways the military will be involved.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 25 Dec 2011 02:23
by Prem
Muppalla wrote:^^^
God forbid - BD's current PM's removal actually can be atributed to Chinese agression on India.
if Indians have to fight for the second liberation of Dhakka, then might as well keep it as per the rule of possesion by the right hand. Good chance that Chinese might loose one Paw , NOKO in this decade. They will want to keep the second Paw Pakhidett desh and make sense for them to develop extra half paw BD.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 26 Dec 2011 02:42
by member_21797
brihaspati wrote:Since then more disturbing signals coming in. Things could happen in both/either-or of Pak and BD. In some ways the military will be involved.
I think BD is heading in that direction. If politicians here are unable to hold a peaceful election, there's a high possibility that military will take over. Then we'll see a revival of the "minus 2" policy. Not bad if you think about it. A military backed government would be in a better position, compared to AL (it's all politics for these guys; no long term goals), to deal with the Islamist elements (aka Jamat & Co) trying to destabilize our country. =D
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 29 Dec 2011 00:59
by brihaspati
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/pakistan-pm-hi ... 30891.html
By Masroor Gilani | AFP News – Thu, Dec 22, 2011
Pakistan's embattled Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani Thursday said conspirators were plotting to bring down his government and delivered an unprecedented tirade against the powerful military.
In astonishing confirmation that he fears being ousted, he angrily denied the government was subservient to the army, long considered the chief arbiter of power in Pakistan as his administration grapples with a damaging scandal.
[...]
But any decision from the Supreme Court to investigate the memo, as recommended by the military, would build significant pressure on the president at a time of huge tension between the army and the civilian government.
Elections are not due until February 2013, but the opposition has begun campaign rallies in earnest and many observers expect polls some time in 2012. No civilian leader in Pakistan has ever completed a full term in office.
Although the military has ruled Pakistan for more than half its existence and seized power in three coups, analysts rule out any imminent takeover. At the National Arts Gallery, Gilani called the army "disciplined", saying that they "follow the constitution" and "will remain under the government".
But heading off questions in parliament, he took aim at the army after the defence ministry told the Supreme Court "it does not exercise any operational control" over the armed forces or ISI intelligence agency.
"If they say that they are not under the ministry of defence, then we should get out of this slavery, then this parliament has no importance, this system has no importance, then you are not sovereign," he told lawmakers.
"Nobody is above the law, all the institutions are subservient to the parliament," Gilani insisted.
Appearing to lose patience, he said the government had stood by the security services over a storm of American pressure over the Osama bin Laden killing, the November 26 NATO attack and the 2008 attacks on Mumbai.
"In the worst circumstances we doubled their salaries. They have to be accountable to parliament." "We are being asked by the judicial commission (examining the May 2 US raid that killed bin Laden raid and how the Al-Qaeda leader lived in Pakistan undetected) about issuance of visas (to Americans).
"But I want to ask how was (bin Laden) living here for the past six years? On what type of visa was he living here? Why was security not taken care of, if he entered Pakistan without a visa?"
Also the great lying game specialists - the Paki establishment - get increasingly caught into their own nets, but provide interesting unstated possible background processes.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/imran-khan-thr ... 29223.html
The report was published in British newspaper The Sunday Times and was also reported by local newspapers. It alleges that Khan was introduced to Munter in General Shuja Pasha's presence, adding that Khan is supported by the Pakistani intelligence agency and military.
Imran's long and frequent presence in UK, and his semi-celeb status are possible facilitators for mi5 and other such agencies to gain access to him or maintain communication channels open.
If Gilani and Zardari are somehow forced out, it would perhaps be an indication towards confirmation of the model I had proposed : that post independence, a large part of the deep core of intel in Pak is maintained by the Brits. Hence a lot of what ISI does would be tied in to long-term British interests, pet-hates or obsessions.
In this case it would be a slight and subtle intra-ally tussle about whose man would rule the roost : so far Gilani and Zardari have played for the Americans. Imran can play for the Brits for some time too.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 29 Dec 2011 10:38
by svinayak
brihaspati wrote:
If Gilani and Zardari are somehow forced out, it would perhaps be an indication towards confirmation of the model I had proposed : that post independence, a large part of the deep core of intel in Pak is maintained by the Brits. Hence a lot of what ISI does would be tied in to long-term British interests, pet-hates or obsessions.
THis is mostly true at least the first 30 years unil 1971.
After that it is a mixture of US and UK agencies who have maintained their presence
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 30 Dec 2011 00:39
by brihaspati
I thought so too. But then a combined same-focus coordinated two-nation intel running the ISI would fail to explain the troubles that USA is having now with the ISI. Pak and Brit interests have always coincided - starting with the initial Kashmir raid, subsequent Chinese incursion and so on. This was also a speculation of mine - to note the peculiar accuracy with which US convoys were targeted within Pak or even within AFG. The US might have had to share intel with the Brits who would selectively then pass it on to their Islamist moles.
Brits need US to provide the muscle - but they want that muscle to be used for Brit objectives.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 31 Dec 2011 04:07
by svinayak
Let me put it this this.
The cultural intelligence of the US agencies are less advanced than the UK agencies. HMG have anglo Indians among them who are decendents of these Pak families for the last 200 years.
US agencies need training similar to how Caroe used to give to culinary institute.
There is lot of social engineering experiments going on in the islamic memes for the last 30 years. That is where US is in control.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 04 Jan 2012 06:36
by brihaspati
Acharya ji, but isnt it better that in a way the Americans do not learn the Brit ways. That would simply prolong Islamism - just as the Brits used them to tackle their colonial and post-colonial enemies.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 04 Jan 2012 08:23
by ramana
brihaspati wrote:Acharya ji, but isnt it better that in a way the Americans do not learn the Brit ways. That would simply prolong Islamism - just as the Brits used them to tackle their colonial and post-colonial enemies.
Rise of Wahabandis is a US achievement. And got 911 in blowback.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 05 Jan 2012 06:05
by brihaspati
ramana ji,
I am trying to encourage people to look into continuing Brit role too. I have a feeling that USA's showmanship could be a good point for old masters of imperialism to utilize. USA definitely has done and does a lot of stuff. But should we let the Brits escape the radar completely by focusing entirely on US?
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 05 Jan 2012 07:00
by svinayak
brihaspati wrote: But should we let the Brits escape the radar completely by focusing entirely on US?
Partition is the child of the Brits and will never be forgotten by billion+ humans
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 05 Jan 2012 11:22
by ramana
brihaspati wrote:ramana ji,
I am trying to encourage people to look into continuing Brit role too. I have a feeling that USA's showmanship could be a good point for old masters of imperialism to utilize. USA definitely has done and does a lot of stuff. But should we let the Brits escape the radar completely by focusing entirely on US?
No. Brit role is ever present. Its not for nothing the French call them Perfidious Albion. Someone who understood the paper currency of the dollar took down Lehman brothers and the US with it.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 06 Jan 2012 23:06
by devesh
crosspost of ramana ji's post in Telangana thread:
ramana wrote:I tell you uncle is fascinated with Hyderabad to figure out how to benefit:
‘Hyderabad of yore cradle of ganga-jamni tehzeeb'
‘Hyderabad of yore cradle of ganga-jamni tehzeeb'
J. S. Ifthekhar
Share · print · T+
The Hindu American Historian Prof. Karen Leonard (University of California, Los Angeles) presenting her paper at MANUU. Related
TOPICS
Andhra Pradesh
Hyderabad
India
Andhra Pradesh
People now may be sharply divided on religious lines but the Hyderabad of yesteryears presented a successful example of a pluralistic society. Regardless of their religious affiliations everyone participated in the dominant public culture, especially those living in the neighbourhoods of the walled City.
“The Indo-Muslim practices are not evidence of a cultural synthesis, syncretism or hybridity. Rather they are evidence of a successful plural society,” remarked Karen Leonard, professor of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine.
She was delivering a lecture on ‘Indo-Muslim culture in Hyderabad – Old City neighbourhoods in the 19 century' at the Maulana Azad National Urdu University. Prof. Leonard focused on the history of Hyderabad state in Deccan as part of the fifth biennial convention of the Association for the Study of Persianate Societies.
3 neighbourwoods
She talked about three contrasting neighbourhoods of the old city – Shahalibanda, Chowk Maidan Khan and Hussainialam – and highlighted their differences and distinct cultural practices.
Hindus and Muslims as also Telugu, Marathi, Kanada, Hindi and Urdu speakers took part in the public culture of their place and time. The Kayasth caste, Ms. Leonard said, were characterised as ‘half Muslim' since many of its members became prominent administrators for Muslim rulers in India and also emerged as scholars and poets in Arabic, Persian and Urdu.
Shahalibanda was essentially a site of military establishments. It was home to the leading military noble family of Paigahs and Gaur Kayasth ‘serrishtahdars' (managers) of military and household units.
Residents here came from many cultural backgrounds and economic levels. Imposing residences of Hindu and Muslim nobles and military commanders shared space with small communities of tanners, salt makers, grain carriers and goat sellers.
Enthusiastic celebrations
Muharram was enthusiastically observed and the Kayasths kept ‘alams' in their homes and built Ashoorkhanas. Some Kayasth families even fasted like Shias. Hindu festivals such as Ramlila celebrations were privately sponsored in Shahalibanda.
The Malwala family was the wealthiest family in Chowk Maidan Khan locality. The family supported the neighbourhood mosques and donated money in Ramzan. During Muharram, the Malwala family displayed ‘alams', set up ‘abdarkhanas' to serve ‘sherbet' to people.
Hussainialam, according to Prof. Leonard, was more crowded and its population heterogeneous. The Kayasths here were Saksenas, Bhatnagars and Srivastavas. Some Brahmin families and Bohra Muslims also lived here.
Referring to the literary front, Prof. Leonard recalled how these localities produced famous Hindi poets of Hyderabad. The literary activity revolved around Persian till the late 19 century when Urdu became a popular medium of expression. Many Kayasth poets were deeply influenced by Sufi thoughts. Prof. Leonard recited the lines of Bansi Raja of Hussainialam:
I do not put tilak,
It's just another headache
Nor do I perform sejdah,
It makes a black spot on my face
Convienently forgets the series of atrocities on Hindus of composite Hyderabad.
Someone said a a wolf that has lost its teeth is a saint.
Those Hindu families quoted are a good example of Telugu saying" Aaru ella savasm cheeste varu veeru ayyaru!"
Living together wifor six years they became indistingushiable!
What the Telugus made was move the center of the new city far away from the old ghettos.
recent news about a mega Sufi Center in Hyd now makes much more sense. almost in tandem, we have American scholars giving lectures about "Indo Muslim" as "evidence of pluralistic society". she goes a step further and characterizes a Hindu community as "half muslim". there seems to be an urgent need to paint Hyderabad and the surrounding area with certain brushes....all of this one the wake of the chaos in the region in the past 3 years....
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 06 Jan 2012 23:08
by Jarita
^^^ Something to do with Andhra resources and port access for sure.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 06 Jan 2012 23:27
by devesh
access to the long coast is definitely one of the key priorities for external interests...
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 06 Jan 2012 23:34
by Prem
devesh wrote:access to the long coast is definitely one of the key priorities for external interests...
EJs must be running out of steam. Now they rely on another shoulder of the Miidle East in effort to define and dine on Indian body.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 06 Jan 2012 23:37
by ramana
I want the Andhra Pradesh turning EJ theory a rest. There are more areas in India that are far more EJ than in any area in Andhra Pradesh.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 06 Jan 2012 23:47
by devesh
the issue is with people like YSR having successfully climbed to the top by getting votes from all regions. and especially his son building a party office with a huge Cross on the front of the office. this kind of stuff gives the impression that AP is going through Constantine phase...
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 07 Jan 2012 02:32
by brihaspati
Andhra will change. The basic radicalism in Andhra stems from idealistic strains within the Hindu. Radicalism by its very nature needs to change dishes and menu regularly. Strong tastes require frequent changing as one gets used to some single fare. Andhra, Bengal and middle GV [the frontier between modern Bihar and lower UP with the Mahadeo hills pivot] have always been radical. No speculation on origins - could be ethnic as well as cultural links and ancient presence.
At least two generations have now matured and experimented with the leftist radicalism. They need new food now. This is what partly has driven the EJ feeding frenzy - but it will not be enough for these particular stomachs. Give them time. This time the experiment will turn to the right.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 07 Jan 2012 03:38
by prahaar
Things change (sometimes dramatically) in a span of a single decade. People in 2011 cannot fathom a Gujarat which was a INC bastion, Madhav Singh Solanki the longest serving CM which later turned to JD. Many Gujaratis will laugh today at the prospect of Janata Dal grabbing simple majority. It would be interesting to see the reasons for this change (some call it Hindutva-lab, others call it communal politics, while some others call it Nationalism/Revival/Gujarati-Asmita). I am pretty sure LKAji's Rath Yatra was at least a catalyst but that alone cannot make a reaction if the necessary elements are not present. I also believe that it was not "by chance" that the Rath Yatra started from Dwarka.
The so-called "effete" (as described by BD) people of Gujarat decided to throw their lot behind NaMo is cannot be an accident. Just like Shivaji was not an accident (there was social priming done by Bhakti movement Sants during that time). Please note, I am not trying to compare NaMo to Shivaji, just trying to make a point that in the whole scheme of things, an individual is only a nimitta not the karan.
I am mentioning this topic to highlight the fact that current voting patterns should not be construed as permanent (whatever the "intellectuals" on TV may want us to believe), and certain signals in certain regions can definitely point towards currently invisible trends. I brought this up because we are discussing Future scenarios. I do not know if this line of discussion is good and safe to have (to encourage positive trends) or whether identifying those trends in an open forum might be harmful to their inherent purpose. More gyaani Gurus may advise.
If there are any big holes in my line of thought, I am ready to be corrected. I do not have benefit of vast reading, just a newbie trying to understand our country.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 07 Jan 2012 03:43
by Agnimitra
brihaspati wrote:The basic radicalism in Andhra stems from idealistic strains within the Hindu. Radicalism by its very nature needs to change dishes and menu regularly. ...
At least two generations have now matured and experimented with the leftist radicalism. They need new food now. ...Give them time. This time the experiment will turn to the right.
So who's to say that even the rightist phase won't pass? Is there any particular direction these phases cycle towards? Does each iteration cycle through a few memetic nutrients that cumulatively satisfy the basic drive?
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 07 Jan 2012 03:53
by svinayak
brihaspati wrote:Andhra will change. The basic radicalism in Andhra stems from idealistic strains within the Hindu. Radicalism by its very nature needs to change dishes and menu regularly. Strong tastes require frequent changing as one gets used to some single fare. Andhra, Bengal and middle GV [the frontier between modern Bihar and lower UP with the Mahadeo hills pivot] have always been radical. No speculation on origins - could be ethnic as well as cultural links and ancient presence.
At least two generations have now matured and experimented with the leftist radicalism. They need new food now. This is what partly has driven the EJ feeding frenzy - but it will not be enough for these particular stomachs. Give them time. This time the experiment will turn to the right.
Andra needs the social contract for nationalism and it will all work fine in the future
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 07 Jan 2012 03:54
by svinayak
Carl wrote:
So who's to say that even the rightist phase won't pass? Is there any particular direction these phases cycle towards? Does each iteration cycle through a few memetic nutrients that cumulatively satisfy the basic drive?
Rightist phase is the foundation of the society and on which the nation stands.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 07 Jan 2012 05:33
by brihaspati
Carl wrote:brihaspati wrote:The basic radicalism in Andhra stems from idealistic strains within the Hindu. Radicalism by its very nature needs to change dishes and menu regularly. ...
At least two generations have now matured and experimented with the leftist radicalism. They need new food now. ...Give them time. This time the experiment will turn to the right.
So who's to say that even the rightist phase won't pass? Is there any particular direction these phases cycle towards? Does each iteration cycle through a few memetic nutrients that cumulatively satisfy the basic drive?
Actually radicalism is more about needing to believe in something very strongly. It does not matter what. But given that the base of AP society is a very long continuity of convergences towards the "Hindu", its the social-justice, egalitarian, "liberation" strands within "Hinduism" that provides the long term meme. When Telegus turn "right" they are going to walk the right-wing road of "social-justice" and a "liberationist" approach.
Yes the right wing phase will pass to - after the initial dreams fade away and disillusionment sets in. But whats so wrong with it? Indians are comfortable with cycles. We may need "leftist" policies for periods appropriate for them, and we may need "rightist" policies when the period is appropriate. Now its the term for the "right" with a "left" face. But who says social-justice and liberty with egalitarian safety nets are only the private property of the "left"? They are all Indian memes.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 12 Jan 2012 20:34
by johneeG
Any avg layman who has seen YSR, without knowing his background, would have never believed that he was trying a constantine on AP. His attire(dhoti and kurta), his name(a hindu sounding one), his language, his actions(visiting temples, organizing homas/yagas),...etc were rooted in Telugu culture (which itself is anchored in Hinduism).
Infact, compared to CBN (who flaunted his atheism/agnosticism and 'modern' urban avatar), YSR came across as the son of the soil representing Telugu/Hindu culture. Many people did not know that YSR was christian until he was buried(with christian rituals).
Jagan is far more brazen in his behavior, perhaps because the truth is more weidely known. It may also be because Jagan is not as skillful as YSR.
Anyway, the point I am making is that the people did not willingly vote for an EJ. They did not know and never could have guessed that he was an EJ. Some may have known, but most did not.
Also, why single out AP? Is not whole of India under the EJ lady? Does that mean all the Hindus in India like and welcome EJ-ism?
Most people have no idea that the lady is an EJ. The same was true of YSR also. Infact, YSR carefully cultivated the image of being a sympathizer of Telugu culture(synonymous with Hindu culture) unlike the EJ lady. Someone like Karuna(who constantly badmouths Lord Sri Rama) or a party like DMK would never be able to replicate their success in Telugu lands.
The first time YSR came to power riding on the wave of anti-incumbency against the CBN. His padayatra, and promises fetched him support and sympathy of the public. And CBN was arrogant all this time alienating all sections. The second time the contest was much closer. There was every chance that YSR would not return to power. CBN allies with TRS and that ruined him. TRS drew a blank at many places seriously hurting TDP. YSR also used Chiru to cut the vote share of TDP. Next, YSR used TDP's alliance with TRS for regional fear mongering even though it was YSR who breathed life into T-demand by allying with TRS first time. Inspite of so may tactics, the vote margin between TDP and YSR was not much. Also, the state Govt got lesser vote margin than the Centre(perhaps, because BJP had declared its intention to form T as soon as it came to power). One also needs to keep in mind that EVMs could have played a crucial role.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 13 Jan 2012 09:28
by brihaspati
Many seem to have written AP off. But that place will provide an important component of revival. its not the particular narrative form of radicalism that we should get so worked up on. The theory of radicalism will change from one historical period to another. But the driving memes remain the same - and both in Bengal and AP - this remains the egalitarian, social-justice aspect of long term Hindu trends. Same goes for the bulk of Maha - even if it now seems to be in the clutches of transnational criminals and their support bases within.
Places to watch out for potential trouble would be Bihar-UP border [western Bihar] and Gujarat. UP elections will only deepen the fractures in the north Indian upper GV networks.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 13 Jan 2012 17:15
by member_20617
We all know that the real prime minister of India is Sonia Gandhi and not Dr M Singh.
We kicked out the British in 1947 so why are we allowing her to rule India? Is this not colonialism?
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 13 Jan 2012 20:34
by Agnimitra
Ok don't jump on me for posting this. It helps to keep track of the fond hopes and sensitive concerns of some of our visionaries:
MKB:
How India can be helpful to Pakistan
The former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra was spot on when he observed that Indian pundits would do exceedingly well by keeping their traps shut with regard to the dramatic events in Pakistan. Yet, the establishment set the ball rolling. So far so good, though.
Home Minister P Chidambaram’s chance remark that India is keeping a close watch is a statement of fact at the highest level of Indian leadership. As a matter of fact, from personal experience in the South Block I can vouchsafe that we never bat an eyelid when it comes to watching (or eavesdropping) on Pakistan. It cannot be otherwise.
And so does Pakistan, given its own entire narrative of what India has been about and how bad it still can be in a worst-case scenario. Incidentally, events in India also mesmerize the Pakistani mind — Anna Hazare, for instance.
But beyond that, to anticipate ‘any eventuality’ and apprehend a spillover effect of the Pakistan events will be, as we say out here in Kerala, like lifting the dhoti a mile ahead of the stream that could even turn out to be dry, in anticipation of one having to cross it eventually — one ends up exposing one’s nakedness. The heart of the matter is that the stream has a dry bed and it is obvious that for a long time already since November 26, 2008, no water flowed through it.
There is a qualitative difference to the political crisis in Pakistan. This is not a run-of-the-mill story being retold — of an imminent military coup. Army chief Ashfaq Kayani actually took permission from PM Yusuf Gilani before the ISPR statement regarding the latter’s media outburst of the ‘illegality’ of the military’s recent actions.
Again, Pakistan’s press is indeed a thriving opinion-maker today and it is uniformly stressing its visceral aversion to army rule. No political party is playing footsie with the military. In any case, Kayani is an unusual general. In all these years of Pakistan watching since 1977 when I first moved into the desk in South Block, I’ve never come across a soldier comparable to him. The nearest to him might have been Jehangir Karamat, but then the social background and the Pakistani ethos and the nativist traits of Kayani keep him apart. (Maybe, they both smoked Dunhill cigarettes.)
All things considered, therefore, this is a crisis with a difference. Surely, Pakistan has its loads of internal problems — just as we have in India. PM Manmohan Singh just reminded us of a
‘national shame’. (I wonder why it can’t be the stuff of editorial comments in our press!)
The root cause of Pakistan’s instability is the presence of western troops on its borders and a shameful war next door. American soldiers urinating on the listless corpses of Afghans…. One can very well imagine the fury raging through the Pashtun mind. This has been a futile and mindless war fought for geopolitical purposes. Pervez Musharraf should never have allowed himself to behave like a frightened kitten. Pakistan is today paying the price for his cowardice.
In sum, Pakistan’s instability is far from terminal. Pakistan is slowly and steadily working out the equilibrium between the civil and military authority. I couldn’t have imagined when I arrived in Turkey on my assignment as ambassador in 1998 that the country could look like this today. It took a decade. In Pakistan, too, change will come. But let Pakistan sort out its political equilibrium on its own. The Americans, in particular, should stay miles away from interfering. {And we Indians should help TSP become the Turkey of the Subcontinent, just like I suppose Iran should help Erdogan become the new Ottoman Caliph of the Mid-East?}
The main drawback today is not Kayani but the sad reality that Pakistan’s bourgeois parties are similar to India’s — lacking in ideology and in leaderships with the courage of conviction. That’s where Recep Tayyip Erdogan scores over Asif Zardari or Nawaz Sharif.
Mishra is right, we can help Pakistan by being politically mature ourselves. Indeed, times have changed. Amidst all this crisis, look at the grace with which Prime Minister Gilani chose to go on a nostalgic trip — how green was Mohali. Our pundits should reciprocate his statesmanship.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 13 Jan 2012 20:50
by devesh
brihaspati wrote:Many seem to have written AP off. But that place will provide an important component of revival. its not the particular narrative form of radicalism that we should get so worked up on. The theory of radicalism will change from one historical period to another. But the driving memes remain the same - and both in Bengal and AP - this remains the egalitarian, social-justice aspect of long term Hindu trends. Same goes for the bulk of Maha - even if it now seems to be in the clutches of transnational criminals and their support bases within.
Places to watch out for potential trouble would be Bihar-UP border [western Bihar] and Gujarat. UP elections will only deepen the fractures in the north Indian upper GV networks.
do you mean that Western Bihar and Gujarat might succumb to internationalist pressures or in the sense that they will be "trouble" for the ruling regime?
Gujarat, for now at least, seems to be in the "saffron" camp.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 14 Jan 2012 00:14
by brihaspati
devesh wrote:brihaspati wrote:Many seem to have written AP off. But that place will provide an important component of revival. its not the particular narrative form of radicalism that we should get so worked up on. The theory of radicalism will change from one historical period to another. But the driving memes remain the same - and both in Bengal and AP - this remains the egalitarian, social-justice aspect of long term Hindu trends. Same goes for the bulk of Maha - even if it now seems to be in the clutches of transnational criminals and their support bases within.
Places to watch out for potential trouble would be Bihar-UP border [western Bihar] and Gujarat. UP elections will only deepen the fractures in the north Indian upper GV networks.
do you mean that Western Bihar and Gujarat might succumb to internationalist pressures or in the sense that they will be "trouble" for the ruling regime?
Gujarat, for now at least, seems to be in the "saffron" camp.
They may succumb.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 14 Jan 2012 01:14
by Agnimitra
brihaspati wrote:devesh wrote:Gujarat, for now at least, seems to be in the "saffron" camp.
They may succumb.
If it comes to that, then maybe Modi needs to move aside and someone waiting in the wings needs to step forward. Its Modi's personality that has been relentlessly made the target.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 15 Jan 2012 00:07
by brihaspati
Modi can move more into organization for some time as a central leader. That would allow training of successor for regional role.Meanwhile his larger national capabilities as an organizer and not just leader of a region will be given a fair exposure. Getting more into larger organizational roles is the only way for him to bypass and neutralize the 2002 tag.
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 15 Jan 2012 13:04
by Klaus
brihaspati wrote:
Places to watch out for potential trouble would be Bihar-UP border [western Bihar] and Gujarat. UP elections will only deepen the fractures in the north Indian upper GV networks.
Even if Bahraich 2.0 happens sometime soon? Your conclusion is that the spread of such a victory would be restricted through coercive machinery and hence short-lived, i.e Magadha resurgence is stemmed at the plains?
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 15 Jan 2012 17:39
by Atri
Klaus wrote:brihaspati wrote:
Places to watch out for potential trouble would be Bihar-UP border [western Bihar] and Gujarat. UP elections will only deepen the fractures in the north Indian upper GV networks.
Even if Bahraich 2.0 happens sometime soon? Your conclusion is that the spread of such a victory would be restricted through coercive machinery and hence short-lived, i.e Magadha resurgence is stemmed at the plains?
@devesh garu,
this is already happening.. If chidu is convicted, watch out for Anandiben Patel's rise in GJ.. GJ is so firmly in grasp of international trade pontiffs (who ensured clean image and success of namo) that namo will be removed. From what I see in my favorite crystal ball,, even if namo tries to do right thing on administrative level, he can't beyond a point. If he is declared PM candidate and BJP fails to win in LS elections, he won't be able to go back to GJ, so he is quite in catch22 position.. hence the lotus's indecision. Anandiben is an extremely important and interesting figure to watch out during saturn's libra transit. the crystal ball is foggy, thereafter..
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 16 Jan 2012 01:09
by brihaspati
Three important near simultaneous developments - ominous in the overt sense but fits in with long run needs.
In Taiwan the pro-Chinese leader has been re-electd. Big biz and China supposed to have tried very hard to get thise election. But the division appears to be 52-45% between pro and anti. The newly elected one has taken note and declared that nothing will be done in haste.
Imran Khan is making all the right noises to try and indicate that he is the west's and perhaps UKstan's next gamble for Pak. No need to be taken in by his sympathetic noises on Pashtuns.
China has acknowledged slowing domestic demand. CAR showing more obvious pro-China stances - including Kazakh and Tajikstan.
Is it the last big attemt by the empire to retrieve its programme for the subcontinent?
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 16 Jan 2012 03:29
by devesh
it feels like PRC is being goaded into some adventure. if it is indeed true that CA is turning more pro-China, then too many voices are turning pro-China at the same time. PRC's own actions might be responsible for this tilt, but there could other encouragement from other forces to raise pro-China voices.
are we talking about Brit Empire or American Empire?
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 17 Jan 2012 10:54
by devesh
meanwhile, this comes from the American conservative bastion of a magazine, Weekly Standard.
very interesting. Khan is slowly opening up to the notion that they might have been royally screwed by their "greatest allies". although, the author of the article makes the usual faux-pas of the aman-ki-asha variety, but the most fundamental veil has been lifted from his eyes: that the present arrangement in the subcontinent might not necessarily be the final one; and perhaps an arrangement which favors the rightful owner might be more suitable to their own interests....
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/ ... tml?page=2
Restitching the Subcontinent
But young Pakistanis are now reconsidering partition—because the bloodletting continues. Oh, those thinking the unthinkable are the well-educated, the next generation of Benazir Bhuttos pursuing college degrees in the United States and Canada, or manning ex-im offices in Singapore, Abu Dhabi, and London. Bhutto’s murder and the 2008 Mumbai massacre by Islamist terrorists in league with ISI officers spurred harsh moral reflection and intellectual reappraisal.
Pakistan as India’s rival? Only in cricket. India has six times Pakistan’s population and about 10 times its GDP. Year by year Pakistan decays amid corruption, Islamic terrorism, and economic rot. India’s economic surge has made it a global power. Bollywood entertains Asia. India’s Hindus and Christians and Sikhs and, yes, despite Mohammed Ali Jinnah’s contrary claim, Muslims, too, have economic opportunities. Jinnah, leader of the Muslim League and Pakistan’s first post-partition governor general, contended Muslims would never prosper if yoked by a Hindu majority. Jinnah was intellectually and politically gifted, a sophisticate with cosmopolitan taste. Sixty years of history have shown he was dead wrong.
And the new reunifiers know it. Their idea is preposterous, a fantasy, but it has on its side a deeper history than the last six decades. They argue that a reunited India would give Pakistani modernizers strategic depth (is the idea to let Pak wreak India under the name of Pak's "strategic depth"? the notion that India is Pak's strategic depth is reverse and perverse logic. it's the other way around): economically, demographically, socially, and geographically. The geographic argument has old roots. For millennia the “tribal threat from the mountains” has vexed northern India, from the Indus valley (Pakistan’s heartland) and east beyond Delhi. The reunifiers see the Taliban and other violent factions as tribal raiders attacking the wealthy lowlands, with the goal of seizing urban wealth, imposing tribal rule, then pushing east. Antiquarian? No, insightful. Al Qaeda promotes a 10th-century misogynistic social order; it glorifies beheadings but says little about jobs. A reinvented pre-partition India would have the economic, social, and demographic depth to buffer and absorb the tribes and their turmoil. Pakistan alone does not.
Two years ago, while discussing the idea of a reunited India with a faculty member at the University of Texas, I pointed out that the reunifiers know they are engaged in a protracted, low-grade civil war, pitting Pakistani modernizers against militant Muslim religious fundamentalists. The modernizers believe a reunited subcontinent would give them instant allies. But consider the obstacles. Indians might balk at absorbing Pakistan’s basket-case economy. (South Koreans fear a generation of paying for North Korea’s poverty post-reunification.)We’ve also had six decades of hateful propaganda spewed by jingoists in Delhi and Islamabad—the heirs of Gandhi’s “comrades” hellbent on personal power. They stoke enmity between Muslims and Hindus for political advantage.
The professor replied that the Pakistani intellectuals he’d met acknowledged re-creation might take a generation—but they raise the possibility and see its value.
Meanwhile, Pakistan risks collapse. Lawrence Solomon, in an article in Canada’s Financial Post, argued that British India requires further “unstitching.” Solomon’s scenario had Pakistan splitting into Pashtun Afghania, Baluchistan, a Sindh state, and an independent Punjab. Solomon asserted that, with the possible exception of current “top dog” Punjab, “the new nations to emerge from a breakup of Pakistan likely would soon become more prosperous as well as more free.”
Likely more prosperous and free? Maybe. A stand-alone Sindh might do well, for a while. In A Quick and Dirty Guide to War (2008), James. F. Dunnigan and I speculated that a Punjab-Sindh state might be more stable than Pakistan. But Pashtun and Baluchi states? I see a squalid future: These suddenly independent confederations slip deeper into misery, plagued by unmitigated clan violence while continuing to provide, with even less intelligence scrutiny, bases for well-financed terrorists. Punjab and Sindh still confront the threat from the hills. Where do they look for help? To India? That’s the argument for restitching, not unstitching.
Abandoning the hills to their despair is a mistake. The tribes deserve peace and development. A dysfunctional Pakistan cannot provide either. A restitched India could, in time.
The Pakistani major at Ft. Benning repeatedly told me the lieutenant-colonel was an unusual man. The day the leg cast came off the lieutenant-colonel and I went to the mess hall. Over dinner he explained the major’s comment: “I come from a hill tribe. We plaster bricks with goat sh— to keep the wind out.”
major realization of Khan:
Pak without support from Gangetic and broader Indian framework is a rump state that cannot protect itself. only a united India can hold the invaders at bay.
Khan is realizing that their own quest for "markets" and more consumption require a framework that can keep all of India from falling into chaos.
but this realization is confined to a few. the vast majority are still in the clutches of British induced haze. in the long term, there could still be hope that Khan might move away from Brit sponsored propaganda.
if Luck is sailing in our way, then Khan needs to mysteriously stumble on some dark bones in the financial closet of London's global games. specifically, Khan needs to be pointed in the right direction about London's fingers in all the dirty pies that relate to global finance and corporate mafias, and their meddling with US finances. perhaps even the Lehman episode....
if such a thing happens, there is much hope left for Khan to salvage whatever they can....
Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I
Posted: 17 Jan 2012 23:01
by svinayak
Meanwhile, Pakistan risks collapse. Lawrence Solomon, in an article in Canada’s Financial Post, argued that British India requires further “unstitching.”
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In this discussion about Pakistan they will talk about new map for India and breaking India.
So remember when this discussion on Pakistan comes up they will start talking about India and India problems. Best is to avoid talking to any third party. Only response should be that Pakistan is no longer the Pakistan of 1947.
India will have to break the current Pakistan before it can connect economically.