Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jan 2012 01:29

Looks like RamaY used his sabbatical to write his own blog on the subject of future strategic scenario for the sub-continent. Interesting ideas or CT for DIEhards.

http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/2012/ ... owing.html

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 20 Jan 2012 01:42

ramana wrote:Looks like RamaY used his sabbatical to write his own blog on the subject of future strategic scenario for the sub-continent. Interesting ideas or CT for DIEhards.

http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/2012/ ... owing.html

This looks like a good analysis. One thing s which pops up is that the constituents of UPA - Indian muslims, Kashmir muslims are teaming up to work with the Pak muslims to push their agenda. Is there nobody to take care of Indian interest and Indian agenda.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 20 Jan 2012 02:50

My earlier hunches about the BD coup appears to have been real. However, everything is not clear. The tactic is clever - to get military training and then not taking up the commission. Only one - a certain major Zia appears to be a key person, and it is not yet fully known whether he is in custody or at large. The connections of a Hong Kong based BD person - with this also proves interesting. But we dont really know how much or how many of the jihadis are now biding their time outside and inside the army.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Jan 2012 09:06

Why did NDTV broadcast the vid of the alleged torture of a BD "transporter" by BSF? It has got into a huge ruckus now cornering Hasina. If NDTV was really so much protective of gov interests - then it would not do so - if according to media posturing it was the gov agencies who warned off Hasina about the coup!

This is another pointer to the possibility that it was a deliberate leak from within the real planners to check out who are the weakest links. Indian intel had little extra to say than what they had been led to believe by external info that they rely on to get warnings about islamists.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Jan 2012 05:38

http://in.news.yahoo.com/photos/priyank ... 05821.html

Priyanka Gandhi joined the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh, injecting sparkle into a tightly fought race and overshadowing her brother Rahul, heir-apparent of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.
__________________________________________________________

holy s***! look at Priyanka's attire. did she transform herself or what?! it used to be dupatta and churidar. now, it's a full blown saree with long sleeves....

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 24 Jan 2012 04:51

devesh wrote:http://in.news.yahoo.com/photos/priyank ... 05821.html

Priyanka Gandhi joined the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh, injecting sparkle into a tightly fought race and overshadowing her brother Rahul, heir-apparent of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.
__________________________________________________________

holy s***! look at Priyanka's attire. did she transform herself or what?! it used to be dupatta and churidar. now, it's a full blown saree with long sleeves....

That is her campaign avatar saar, when not in campaign she wears jeans and tshirts onlee.

I think dalal media burkha in her tweets mentioned this hypocrisy. She is supposed to be always seen in the jeans attire when picking up her kids.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Jan 2012 05:18

We discussed this a long time ago. The ndtv cam focused on her jeans clad legs - rather, shall I say - lovingly. This was a subtle image buildup - before urban elections, especially maybe in Delhi like cities say, the jeans version goes out in the media.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 28 Jan 2012 19:41

Timeline reverting back to our projected early exit:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 660303.cms
France to withdraw from Afghanistan early: Nicolas Sarkozy
AFP | Jan 28, 2012, 09.34AM IST

PARIS: President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Friday that France would pull its forces out of Afghanistan a year earlier than planned, a week after the killing of four French servicemen by a renegade Afghan soldier.

After meeting Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Paris, Sarkozy said France had decided to transfer security in the eastern Kapisa province, where most of the 3,600-strong French contingent is based and the scene of the shooting, to Afghan forces from March of this year.

"The pursuit of the transition and this gradual transfer of combat responsibilities will allow us to plan for a return of all our combat forces by the end of 2013," Sarkozy said, adding that 1,000 troops would return in 2012.

This decision was made "in agreement with president Karzai and in agreement with our allies, in an organised and reasonable way," he said.

"A few hundred" French troops would stay on after 2013 to train Afghan troops, Sarkozy said.

Sarkozy said he would encourage Nato to consider transferring all its combat operations to Afghan forces in 2013, instead of the scheduled deadline of end-2014.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 01 Feb 2012 02:47

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/28/world ... rawal.html
NYTimes tries to say more about Sarkozy's move:

Mr. Sarkozy said that the level of Taliban infiltration in the Afghan Army “has been underestimated,” but he insisted that the acceleration was not due to the deaths of the French soldiers, but due to “the outstanding job our soldiers have done” training the Afghans. A few hundred soldiers would probably remain in Afghanistan purely for training exercises with the Afghan forces under a cooperation treaty the two presidents signed on Friday.
[...]
“We have decided in a common agreement with President Karzai to ask NATO to consider a total handing of NATO combat missions to the Afghan Army over the course of 2013,” Mr. Sarkozy said. At the last summit meeting of NATO, in late 2010, it had agreed to do so by the end of 2014.

France intends to broach the proposal first at a meeting of NATO defense ministers next week, he said.

A senior NATO official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the situation, said the French decisions were bound to create problems for the alliance because they would give encouragement to the forces fighting the Afghan government, supporting the idea that attacks on NATO and coalition troops would push governments to leave Afghanistan sooner than planned.

But the accelerated French withdrawal has more symbolic than strategic weight. France has the fifth-largest contingent in Afghanistan, with an official count of 3,900 troops. Its forces have been in a largely defensive posture for the past year or longer, focused on preventing any further loss of troops’ lives, according to a NATO official in Kabul who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Since 2001, 82 French troops have been killed in Afghanistan.

Potentially more worrisome is the proposal for NATO to accelerate the transfer to Afghan control by a year, to the end of 2013 rather than 2014. So far only half of the country’s population is in areas handed over to the Afghans. The most troubled areas remain under international forces. In many cases in the less troubled areas, Afghan control is only nominal and coalition forces remain as support.

It could even start accelerating backwards into 2012.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 Feb 2012 03:25

all this acceleration might be happening b/c they don't want IA's plans for ANA to come into fruition. perhaps it's a preemptive strike to neutralize ANA before it can become a threat to Islamists!!!

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 03 Feb 2012 03:35

Apart from Pakis no one is really bothered about India being present in AFG or not. The others are only bothered in so far as they want to preserve Pak for their own continued use. Indian policy there is faced with at least three severe obstacles - as has been dicussed before [physical supply lines, friends of the Pakis, Indian shakiness and fear in dealing with Islam as a group]. Therefore Indian intervention cannot match up to the scale and depth required to achieve lasting effects - because India still has not prepared to deal with the situation and is unsure about what to do with muslim majority countries on its frontiers.

The official line seems to be pretending that such countries have to be stabilized rather than their islamist infratsructure destroyed. Thsic omes from the failure to understand the mechanism by which mullahcracy entrenches itself and expands. Islmism is kept only in check by the constant threat of complete annihilation - and any show of compromise/acceptance with suppression of concrete evidence for willingness to destroy mullahcracy, simply strengthens mullah control over that society.

Intervention in msulim majority societies like AFG - should only be undertaken with a clear commitment to wipe out the islamic institutional basis of mullah power. Otherwise it will only lead to withdrawal and negotiations with the mullahcracy itself that leaves the mullah more strong than before the intervention.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 03 Feb 2012 06:19

Devguru

Long ago you had talked about how the coasts were important and especially the andhra and orissa ones. What do you think that the nuclear agitation which clearly has taken communal tones with the fisher men at the fore ground have? I am actually curious about the turns which tamilnadu is going to take. With the almost complete destruction of LTTE, I sort of see the tamil identity may boom for a short while(i.e. the next 1-2 years) but will swing to the other side. With over 90 years of swing to the leftist motives - the formation of Justice party, I somehow feel that there will be a swing of Tamil nadu to the opposite direction and SSwamy is one of the early adaptors. The rise/fall of VijayKanth compared to DMK should be an indicator.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 03 Feb 2012 07:59

^^^ To add to that train of thought, do adjacent states experience same-side shifts concurrently? If the money is on AP coasts having a rightist phase (<5 years), shouldnt there be a lag before others follow suit? Or is there an anomaly?

Demise of LTTE has made the search for Tamil identity a global one.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 03 Feb 2012 09:11

regarding AP, there will be at least 3 different forces that will increasingly make AP "unstable":

1. the societal effects of rabid EJ'ism and the schism that this is already causing in society >> Jagan carving a gigantic Cross on his Headquarters, for everyone to see, in Hyderabad. the shark like feeding frenzy of exploitation by showering promises of incentives. the cynical behavior of converting warlords like YSR/YSJ and turning them and their resources on rest of the population. the special "rights" given to EJ's to propagate and convert, but the same denied to the "Hindus". smear campaigns and even targeted violence on persons or groups associated with organizing against EJ mafia, etc etc.

2. the emerging business class. like the rest of India, AP is going through its own little entrepreneurial revolution that has transformed formerly "backward" land-owners and small time dhanda-wallahs into aspiring businessmen. on the Coastal side, these rising clans/families will have to deal with an already entrenched network of clans that has been in power since British mercantile times. on the Telangana side, they will have to deal with the fact that they are the first generation of aspiring/ambitious 'rising' entrepreneurs, IN CENTURIES, who want to look beyond their own neighborhood and venture into opportunities on the coastal side and also become part of the pan-India business networks. there will be a lot of learning that these guys need to do. there is no precedent for this in recent history. there has been such a rapid change in the last 40 years that they don't have any examples from previous generations. I suspect that this 'rising' group from Telangana side will find it prudent to reach an understanding with others such as them on the Coastal side.

3. Identity and Ideology. this will be a pivot which will constantly keep haunting AP as long as they don't figure out a suitable answer. almost 60 years after unification, the "identity" issue still remains a fault-line. but interesting trend is that the present and past identity fissures are "running out of steam". the slow collapse of the Telangana movement is happening as we speak. on instinct and experience, my impression is that the second successive failure of the demand for a separate state will make it a 'no-no' for the rising and future generations. I am saying this based on the interactions within family, and outside family, especially close family friends with varied backgrounds, including a recently 'rising' BC family who've now expanded into several small businesses and have an agricultural base in their home village, and also migratory AP state govt employees who I've known for several years b/c of close family interactions. the impression I get is that the generation that is presently in 20's and future ones will simply be too aware of the past failures to waste their time on the same thing again and again.

so, in a way, the Telangana mess was perhaps good for long-term identity issues. it will help exhaust certain mindsets and encourage the innovative and bold to seek out new directions having the experience of past failures. so the search for identity will begin on the Telangana side. they will look for an identity based on an ideology that can be broad enough to remove the stigma of past experiences with "narrow" channels of fighting. the fuel to all this will be ambition. the new generation's ambition will propel their search for the "roots" and "identity".

and cautiously, being aware of the brick bats that might be headed my way, I will also say that all these trends will eventually converge on the "willingness" of the Coastal elite to adapt and incorporate the new demands for a renewed identity based on a broader ideology. this is simply b/c, as a group of clans, or as a network of businesses and power brokers, the long established elites of Coastal AP are the most powerful force in AP. the Naxals, KCR, Gadar, etc are second-rung aspirants to power who have their grievances against the "established order" and are trying to make a space for themselves (after all, KCR is nothing but a product of the blunder of TDP and CBN of not understanding the consequences of sidelining other aspirants to elite power, especially when there exists a "social feeling" in the areas of the sidelined elites which can easily be exploited by said sidelined elites).

I will also say that these clans won't be so easy to adapt to changing circumstances. we underestimate their resistance to change. and we also underestimate the routes and channels that society takes if it feels that elites no longer represent their interests.....I am sure you all get an idea of what I'm hinting at. "unstable" is perhaps a very appropriate and also maybe a understatement.....

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 Feb 2012 08:26

devesh ji,
sometimes mohini can be willfully created to lure asuras away. Sometimes we have to allow a mohini already let on the loose - to lure certain people. Expectations are sky high, and that is good. Trust me, this is the penultimate phase.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Feb 2012 10:55

Tathastu saar!

Abhi_G · Post by **Abhi_G** » 07 Feb 2012 17:25

Brihaspati seems to be fixated on the "mohini" let loose on the public by congrez

Admins, sorry for the diversion.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 Feb 2012 18:33

Oh I dont mind! I have been clamouring for the lady to take over for a long long time. It fits in with the overall scheme of things. Wheels within wheels. You have to bring certain things in so that others react to it, and hasten the overall force towards its intended culmination.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 07 Feb 2012 20:25

brihaspati wrote:devesh ji,
sometimes mohini can be willfully created to lure asuras away. Sometimes we have to allow a mohini already let on the loose - to lure certain people. Expectations are sky high, and that is good. Trust me, this is the penultimate phase.

Penultimate? Not the ultimate phase?

Actually, I was hoping for this phase as well. The coming of her(I wouldnt call her Mohini, that would be blashphemy) indicates the failure of her brother. And I hope she fails just like her bro. And I think she will(sooner than later). And she already looks old and jaded. I thought that would be the last phase.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Feb 2012 22:56

johneeg saar,
make no mistake. failure doesn't mean they leave the scene. in Indian history going back thousands of years, the unworthy and unfit never leave the throne for more able persons to take it. just think a few centuries ago. did Bajirao-II the failure, give up his power? did he vacate for more able ones? nope, he brought disaster to Bharat.

the dynasty, regardless of their obvious and glaring failures, will not simply give it all up. they will "invite" the external hands to help them against domestic "concerns".

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 08 Feb 2012 00:43

devesh wrote:johneeg saar,
make no mistake. failure doesn't mean they leave the scene. in Indian history going back thousands of years, the unworthy and unfit never leave the throne for more able persons to take it.

Saar,
when I say 'failure', I mean failure to occupy throne. Not failure to lead while on throne.

And most people, all over the world, would not willingly leave throne regardless of their ability to lead. So, this trait of imbeciles hanging on to power is not specific to Indian context. Infact, one can argue that only in India did people ever willingly renounce power/position/privilege. The Puranas are filled with examples of such people. It is a unique Indian trait. Otherwise, hanging on to power is the general characteristic found all over the world.

devesh wrote: just think a few centuries ago. did Bajirao-II the failure, give up his power? did he vacate for more able ones? nope, he brought disaster to Bharat.

Saar,
could you suggest a good source(preferably online) to know about Maratha history?

devesh wrote: the dynasty, regardless of their obvious and glaring failures, will not simply give it all up. they will "invite" the external hands to help them against domestic "concerns".

Thats true. But, if the dynasty fails to grab and hold on to power. Then, their own supporters/followers will force them out and seek alternative leadership that can grab and hold on to power. If the dynasty is successful in holding on to power, then the supporters will be pacified.

External help is unpredictable factor and one never knows when and how it will play out. It depends on specific context and players.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Feb 2012 06:00

my sources are Jadunath Sarkar and Grant Duffe. and assorted stuff online. yup, "external help" is disastrous for the country. I'm not advocating for it. But I'm saying that if we look at patterns of Indian history, it has happened repeatedly before. as for "supporters", there are several groups of them. not the least of which is the business class. it will be interesting to see how they react when their home base is threatened with forced poverty or something similar by foreign hands.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 08 Feb 2012 17:38

Maratha history? Go for Riyasat (8 volumes) by G.S.Sardesai, if you can handle marathi. Else go for "New history of Marathas" (3 volumes) again by Sardesai. A true "Rishi", this guy was.. Has written 3 volumes of "Musalmaani Riyasat", 8 volumes of "Marathi Riyasat" and 2 volumes of "British Riyasat". One of the most authoritative resource on Maratha history.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 11 Feb 2012 00:01

Virupaksha wrote:Devguru

Long ago you had talked about how the coasts were important and especially the andhra and orissa ones. What do you think that the nuclear agitation which clearly has taken communal tones with the fisher men at the fore ground have? I am actually curious about the turns which tamilnadu is going to take. With the almost complete destruction of LTTE, I sort of see the tamil identity may boom for a short while(i.e. the next 1-2 years) but will swing to the other side. With over 90 years of swing to the leftist motives - the formation of Justice party, I somehow feel that there will be a swing of Tamil nadu to the opposite direction and SSwamy is one of the early adaptors. The rise/fall of VijayKanth compared to DMK should be an indicator.

If AP falls, can TN be very far behind? But I would rather wish that the transition does not draw too much attention. The buds need to be given time to safely flower.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 11 Feb 2012 00:09

There is definitely a budding sense of Hindu identity among the Tamizh, at least among a section of them. I observe this in several types of religious-cultural activity groups. I agree with B ji, this should not be allowed to draw too much attention at this time, because that is a region in which inimical wolves can create a lot of disinformation, sowing intellectual and emotional confusion. In order to bloom and flower, the revival needs to be given a period of peaceful expansion to grow deep roots, and the interested sections allowed the joy of discovery and exploration without interference.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2012 00:11

AP wont fall for anything.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Feb 2012 00:15

If AP falls, can TN be very far behind? But I would rather wish that the transition does not draw too much attention. The buds need to be given time to safely flower.
-----
Please dont use such words since social changes are complex and Indian has deep cultural idenitity.
Social changes in India will revert back once this global modernism project comes to an end. The process has started

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 11 Feb 2012 00:20

My apologies to anyone whose sentiments have been hurt by the mere mention of AP and TN together in close proximity in a sentence. All I wanted to say - the "fall" was the fall of the EJ-centre-left nexus.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 11 Feb 2012 00:26

bji,
when I first read that, I was confused too. but I understood the play of words with some thought. the discussion before that gives clues as to what "fall" you're talking about.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 11 Feb 2012 00:36

devesh wrote:bji,
when I first read that, I was confused too. but I understood the play of words with some thought. the discussion before that gives clues as to what "fall" you're talking about.

Yes and the bud was that of alternatives.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 11 Feb 2012 19:44

Acharya wrote:Indian has deep cultural idenitity.
Social changes in India will revert back once this global modernism project comes to an end. The process has started

Saar,
I tend to agree. As soon as the drivers of the ideology are removed, the inherent culture of India will triumph. I think this is true for even those regions of India that are currently outside of Republic of India like Pakistan or BD.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Feb 2012 05:36

Bji, A book recommendation for you.

"Introduction to Ancient History" Hermann Bengtson, a German Professor.

Its about antiquity and how it shapes the modern world.

There was a constant quest for Europe around the Mediterranean to link with India.

Antiquity geography stretched from the Straits of Gibraltar to the West banks of the Indus. Its farthest outposts in the west were Iceland.

It spurred the Eastward spread of Mediterranean people as a reaction to the constant invasions from the East. Alexander's eastward drive was a reaction to the many Persian invasions and created the Hellenic world.

Hellenism was replaced with Christianity and in reaction Islam developed and its force was there till the early modern ages Battle of Vienna. And got subdued in the colonial age.

So we see an ebb and tide of the Mediterranean peoples and the impact on the periphery.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Feb 2012 05:45

Reason why I posted the above was no Future Strategic Scenario of Indian sub-continent can ignore the vast role of antiquity in shaping this future.
Indians are remiss due to the koopaka manduka world mind set to not see what lies beyond the well.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 12 Feb 2012 09:20

ramana ji,
for the outside world there was always one India. The brilliance that India was, dazzled eyes from a distance as a single source of light. But those within could never see that brilliance that shone outside. It is like the eyes surveying the body and seeing dirty hairs and muddy feet, and hands swinging independently of each other and decide that these are all separate.

And so AP and TN are touchily separate entities. UP, or Bihar or Bengal, or AP, or TN, Kerala shine brighter separately than the Inde-Hindoi shines.

Bjorn Landstrom's "Quest for India" (even more so "Ship" or "vagen till Indien") should show how the dreamers outside of India dreamed of India.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 12 Feb 2012 10:01

Bji,
you of all should have known not to include AP and TN on the same note, let alone the same sentence. I made that mistake and had to lick my wounds from an all out attack. :smilie:

but it will still be hard to ignore the facts. the entire area from Andhra coast down into the southern tip of TN coast all move as one. major social changes in one place turn out to be coordinated with similar such changes down/up the coast. in terms of political earthquakes, there will definitely be "joint quakes"....

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 12 Feb 2012 10:25

devesh ji,
Many accused me of hiding my subregion and my mother-tongue during the first few months on BR. You can call me a denier of reality. But deniers of realities can facilitate new realities - especially if the old realities were imaginary and maya onlee. For me akhand Bharat is a greater reality. Even identity wise. I may not be able to create it. Our ideological descendants will create it. One day.

I am not burned by any such reaction.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Feb 2012 10:40

brihaspati wrote:devesh ji,
. Even identity wise. I may not be able to create it. Our ideological descendants will create it. One day.
I am not burned by any such reaction.

Seeds sown now will grow in few generations and become mighty indic trees. Internet has made it easy to spread the gyan and expedite the process of awarness.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Feb 2012 11:02

Bji,
So true! One has to leave to see the shining India!!!

Trajan is quoted in book wishing here were young enough to extend the Empire to India!

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 12 Feb 2012 19:05

Carl wrote: Klaus, this is precisely the impression one gets. Talking to Gulenists in the US, the idea is that a Western elite will adopt and push Islam, and thus gloriously become its newest benefactors, just like the Turks of yore did. See, some people are blessed with it by being conquered, and some are privileged to lead it by conquering and then adopting to survive.

Carl, this post of yours was on my mind for a while as I did not have a suitable reply at that time. However, having had time to think about it I've arrived at one reason why Western elite would adopt and push Islam.

1. Moslem women have a higher fertility rate compared to non-Muslim. There is something inexplicable about this phenomenon. Statistical studies factoring in all aspects of HDI are unable to come up with a cogent explanation for this.
2. The declining populations of the Teutonics/WASP's/Anglo-Saxons.

I had a lightbulb moment after reading Shiv's post on skin color differences existing in TSP and I realized that the Turkish Gulenists and the TSP RAPE class have a lot in common with respect to the societal roles they play. IOW, Gulenists:UK/US society::RAPE:TSP.

Now, the Gulenists being "almost white" in their attitudes and appearances are the best parties to push Islam and reconcile (2) and (1). There are white female converts to Islam in the UK (perhaps the US too) and there is still a chance that their racial bias gets preserved under the Islamic banner while going a long way in arresting their falling populations. We will need to wait and watch beyond 2020-2025 for the long term effects.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 12 Feb 2012 19:25

brihaspati wrote:For me akhand Bharat is a greater reality. Even identity wise. I may not be able to create it. Our ideological descendants will create it. One day.

brihaspati garu,

I think Akhand Bharat would have to take a somewhat different Avatar this time! I think we need to build momentum for Dharma, not just by being on the back-foot from all assorted sides - Islam, EJs, Marxists, et all and fighting against them, but rather by quickly consolidating that what we can consolidate first.

I think, we need to make a major move into Southeast Asia, and over the next generation to establish a vibrant Dharmic-Dhammic presence in Southeast Asia, which views India, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam as a single Civilizational Unit! And we need to absolutely try to push back Islam in Indonesia! Philippines and Taiwan should also get attention.

I think we should let the fever in the West of India burn itself out and then move in! But that should become secondary!

Our first target should be Southeast Asia!