India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

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SureshP
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Post by SureshP »

Nayar is being disingeneous. Baradei cannot outrightly exclude non NPT countries at some future date and under different circumstances from wanting to negotiate thier own regularisation of thier Nuclear programmes.

This does not mean they will get the same conditionalities as India nor indeed that the IAEA countries will ever entertain or agree to such a understanding.

It is a hypothetical bone at best and just diplomatese in reality.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

As Pakistan hails ‘precedent,’ other IAEA members express doubts, fears : Hindu
Even hardened veterans of IAEA politics taken aback by Austria’s vehemence
Though many states, including India, stressed the importance of the IAEA’s “guidance documents,” Austria would have none of it. Its Ambassador said he disagreed with those who argued the Indian text was simply an “umbrella agreement” based on the standard template. Describing the draft as “an empty shell,” he declared that it was only out of respect for the DG and the Secretariat that Austria had decided to join the consensus in favour of the draft.
Diplomatic sources told The Hindu that Austria had opposed this formulation and delayed the framing of the EU statement for several hours before backing off. Austria also tried to garner support for a joint statement by several countries with reservations about the Indian agreement. However, this attempt fizzled out when it became clear that all other members preferred to make their own individual statements rather than creating the impression of a “gang up” on the question.
We all know, who gets our cold shoulder in the future. And this after what Homi Babha did for them. As far as I have heard, it was his vote, which allowed the IAEA to sit in Vienna.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by kshirin »

Why India is not turning screws on PakistanParrull / CNN-IBN, Published on Fri, Aug 01, 2008 at 23:42 in Nation section
Colombo: When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets Pakistan Prime Minister, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani for the very first time, he will be giving his Pakistani counterpart the benefit of doubt on two scores - terrorism and ceasefire violations.
India's Prime Minister, according to highly placed sources, has been told of the "outside inspiration" for the Ahmedabad and Bangalore bombings, but Dr Singh will not blame Pakistan for the recent carnage because it's still early days in the investigation process.
And even when the PM does pin Mr Gilani down on the ISI hand in the Kabul embassy bombing, sources say there will be no blame game because Delhi, like Washington, is convinced that Prime Minister Gilani is struggling to reign in rogue elements within Paksitan's intelligence agency.
Top level sources told CNN-IBN that this the Pakistan government's stand: "We draw a distinction between rogue elements in agencies and the Government of Pakistan."
The recent violations of the ceasefire along the Line of Control will also be underplayed in the words of a senior official and that perhaps explains why the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi sounded so positive when he said, "LoC ceasefire is most important as are the Confidence Building Measures and we shall try and sort out these things when the Prime Ministers meet on Saturday."
Clearly, India is determined not to be provoked into a military misadventure by the Pakistani army and will instead treat Saturday's meeting as an opportunity to discuss how to manage an increasingly complex relationship.
Ideally, Dr Manmohan Singh would have liked to discuss with PM Gilani, ways to fast forward the peace process. Now when they meet on Saturday, the focus will be on how to insulate the peace process from the contradictions emerging from different power centres within Pakistan. (With inputs from Naveen Bansal
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

narayanan wrote:
only 34 per cent of Canadians polled agreed with the statement "Canada should accept India as a responsible nuclear power."


Only 35% were sober enough to know what they were voting, and the other one percent were the Khalistanis.
Check the comments section
These guys sitting with nuclear umbrella protection want to preach to the world.
Use your power Canada, to VETO the agreement! India, a country broke the trust deserves that. To say we may be enemy of "next super power" is naiive. There are too many countries called "potential super powers". We aren't even afraid of the only super power in the world- the U.S., why should we care the small peanuts? This is time Canada stand up for principles.

Posted by richmondhill at 1:00 PM Friday, August 01 2008
India's prosperity


India should reform its economy. 80 % of people still living under $2 per day in India. Why it is spendoing so much money on military? It has no infrastructure to speak of. It has severe shortage of electricity throughout the entire country. It also suffers highest illiterate rate, low foreign investment and hostile business environment for foreign investors. India has huge government and trade deficit, Growth is slipping, stocks down 40 %, Growth is slipping, and foreign market investors are fleeing. The government official debt will be closer to 10 % this year. Most economic forecasts expect growth to slow to 7 %. It can trigger social unrest. http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/c ... 743900.htm

Posted by Canadian views at 12:46 PM Friday, August 01 2008

There are other countries to worry about


I agree it is time to move on as responsible countries do have the bomb. It is the terrorists and countries like Iran and North Korea. If Iran gets the bomb so will terrorists. In the book "One Point Safe" by Andrew and Leslie Cockburn it is the one rouge country or person we should worry about as they could set off a chain reaction that could set the whole world going down. Iran plays games with the world and no one does anything until things are too late. India has never shown it wants to take over the world but Iran has shown by it's actions and words it can not be trusted. Better worry about countries like Iran before things are too late

Posted by P.B at 11:51 AM Friday, August 01 2008

Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and Canada


The nuclear sword of Damacles hangs over humanity as President Kennedy said to the U.N. Mahatma Gandhi would never have embraced nuclear weapons. India lying and cheating gone relatively unpunished is a precedent that Pakistan has taken up. North Korea and Iran are closing in on membership in this fatally flawed club. Who's next? Who will be left to take responsibility should the unthinkable transpire? Iran points to obvious hypocrisy and it is not hard to see their case. When was the last time Canada took a stand on the NNPT? When was the last time there was serious efforts to reduce the existing threat? Some things defy finesse and obfuscation. Lets hope these chickens never come home to roost.

Posted by lescaine at 8:54 AM Friday, August 01 2008
Everyone Should Have the Bomb


I think everyone should have the bomb. Iran should have the bomb. North Korea should have a bomb that works properly. O.S.S.T.F. should have the bomb, purely for negotiations. Then we should have a game of elimination in which two adversaries at a time face off.

Posted by Templeton Jones at 8:51 AM Friday, August 01 2008
Raju

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Raju »

canadians are afraid that their poodle-status is under threat.
RajeshA
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Raju wrote:canadians are afraid that their poodle-status is under threat.
Hasn't anybody told them, we are not applying for that job.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

BSR Murthy wrote:Some of the countries, which will definitively have some problems with the deal are:
a) New Zealand
b) Ireland
c) Sweden
d) Finland
e) Austria
f) Switzerland
My my.... Injuns better be scared of powerful countries arrayed against it !!!

Lead by the heavy-weight, super-power of the world that has the ability to stop dead on its track and destroy world's modern political states, being the principal bankers of illegal money of corrupt wealthy people of the world. Wah wah, beautiful Switzerland. :rotfl:

Others honorable countries in the axis are fly-weight (read "Makkhi weight") champions of pristine virtue that conduct "mujra" at whims of the powerful to make ends meet.

Of any consequence? None, except amusement. :mrgreen:
Gerard
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

The PFBR and Rattehalli have stuck in Ayatollah Kimball's craw...
IAEA approves deal for India's nuclear inspection
Daryl Kimball, at the Washington-based Arms Control Association, urged the NSG to get India to sign a legally binding ban on nuclear weapons testing as well as the transfer of its uranium enrichment and plutonium processing technology, which could be used for making atomic bombs. While IAEA approval was largely expected, "the NSG is going to be much tougher," Kimball said.
Arun_S
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

Singha wrote:I keep reading of this "vast deposits" of thorium in some kerala beaches.

if we are serious about this line of work, isnt it time to dredge and dig out all
the material thats lying there, transport it inland to storage pens and replace
the lost beach with normal sand shipped in from elsewhere like gulf?
Yup, we need that beachhead in Gulf pronto!
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Suraj »

Airavat
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Airavat »

Nuclear Energy Industry

The creation of a civilian nuclear energy industry in India has become a real possibility once the US-India 1-2-3 agreement is signed. It’s an idea that excites global companies that design, construct and manage nuclear energy plants and complexes: GE, Areva and Westinghouse Electric, in addition to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Toshiba of Japan.

For three years now, executives from the US nuclear power industry have been coming to New Delhi, meeting with Indian government officials, and lobbying the US Congress for the passage of the deal. Ron Somers, president of the US-India Business Council in Washington, says US industry would be “front and centre” in advocating the deal when it comes up for ratification before the US Congress.

Image

India is likely to spend more than $100 billion expanding its national power capacity over the next 20 years and US firms are expecting the nuclear deal to pave the way for big contracts. This message is unlikely to be lost on the US Congress. At an estimated $2.5 billion per 1,000 MW of electricity — the capacity that most new plants will provide — the nearly 30 new reactors India will commission over the next four decades could be windfall business for US companies such as GE Energy, Thorium Power and Westinghouse Electric.

With 17 plants in operation, India already has a flourishing and largely indigenous nuclear power programme. But at present, nuclear energy provides only about 2.5 per cent of India’s electricity; the goal is for nuclear power to supply 25 per cent of electricity by 2050.

The Thorium Advantage

India also needs advanced US technology to best use thorium, a silvery metal that has been considered an alternative nuclear fuel to scarce and expensive uranium. Due to years of nuclear isolation and lack of domestic uranium, Indian scientists have worked hard at tapping the country’s abundant thorium reserves.

It’s true that so far, India’s nuclear power programme has gotten along largely without fuel or technological assistance from other countries. But until the mid-1990s, Indian-made power reactors had some of the world’s lowest capacity factors, reflecting the technical difficulties of the country’s isolation.

Global reserves of thorium — India, Australia, Norway and the US possess the largest reserves — could meet the world’s energy needs for centuries. Now, consider what it means for India to be able to do business with the cliquish club of nuclear technology suppliers.

Image

The Economics Of Nuclear Power

The four factors that we have to take into consideration in assessing the economics of nuclear power are construction, financing, operating and waste management costs. According to the World Nuclear Association — an association of companies that trade in nuclear energy-related materials — construction costs per kilowatt hour have fallen considerably due to standardised design, shorter construction times and more efficient generating technologies.

Financing costs for new nuclear plants, a critical component of nuclear economics, are expected to fall as new approaches are developed and tested, says the WNA. Operating costs of nuclear power plants have fallen steadily over the past 20 years as capacity factors have increased, squeezing far more output from the same generating capacity. Waste management costs, which are included in the operational costs of nuclear plants, represent a tiny fraction of the lifetime costs of a reactor’s operation.

Who Wins, Who Loses, Who Gets Away?

What India is looking for, Sreenivasan adds, is a statement that reads something like this: “The NSG guidelines will not apply to India.” But what they might get is something more qualified and that may ask for some assurances on verification of use of nuclear fuel, nuclear testing, reprocessing and similar issues.

The CSC treaty is a global pool to pay victims of nuclear disasters; unless India signs it, any American-built reactors would have to shoulder their own civil liabilities.

“American companies are concerned that India has not ratified international nuclear liability agreements,” says Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. “They are concerned they will be liable for accidents.” But companies from other countries, especially France, Russia and Japan, are not likely to be as affected.

Areva has exploratory agreements in place that almost assure it of a site in western India, and Russian companies are planning to help build a nuclear reactor in Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu once India gets a “clean and unconditional exemption” from the NSG guidelines.

But R.B. Grover, director at India’s DAE and India’s chief negotiator for the nuclear deal, recently suggested that there was no cause for worry. “Irrespective of any understanding or quid pro quo, the demand for electricity in India is so large, we can accommodate all countries,” he told the US media.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Baljeet »

Arun_S wrote:
BSR Murthy wrote:Some of the countries, which will definitively have some problems with the deal are:
a) New Zealand
b) Ireland
c) Sweden
d) Finland
e) Austria
f) Switzerland
My my.... Injuns better be scared of powerful countries arrayed against it !!!

Lead by the heavy-weight, super-power of the world that has the ability to stop dead on its track and destroy world's modern political states, being the principal bankers of illegal money of corrupt wealthy people of the world. Wah wah, beautiful Switzerland. :rotfl:

Others honorable countries in the axis are fly-weight (read "Makkhi weight") champions of pristine virtue that conduct "mujra" at whims of the powerful to make ends meet.

Of any consequence? None, except amusement. :mrgreen:
Arun Boss all the countries mentioned have galls to oppose us. With the exception of Ireland all other losers are just "Kheesyani Billi Khamba Noche". I am surprised at ireland they will take this stand..aren't they the same nation once branded as terrorists by UK remember IRA--gues they have something common with pakis afterall. Swiss, Swedes and Austrians are catering to Pakis they do alot of arms business with them.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sraj »

RajeshA wrote:Deal sails through IAEA, braces for some NSG rough weather : Indian Express
NSG countries saying no

Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Norway, China, New Zealand and Ireland: Undermines NPT, should sign CTBT, one-off exception for India not justified
That is the dangerous club of the show-off self-centered racist pseudo-do-gooders. If they get together and find comfort in their numbers, then India can say goodbye to the nuclear deal.

China did not really say anything much against the deal, except that it ought to non-discriminatory. Me thinks the Chinese were trying to assess the amount of anti-deal feeling among the Board of Governors and in IAEA generally. The Chinese and the Pakistanis may start a whisper campaign now about trying to bring in Pakistan as well into the fold. The Iranians, Egyptians and Malaysians would start the drumbeats about a US plot to bring in Israel from the cold. Integrating Pakistan and Israel, the other two Non-NPT countries with nuclear weapons into the system may not sit well with RDG club above and they may get cold feet with the India deal.

The Lizard and the worm's "Non-Descrimination Mantra" on the one side, and the "Zionist Conspiracy" by the Ummah on the other side, may be sufficient to do the trick on the above mentioned mental-pygmies.
The main value of the IAEA approval lies in the signals it provides for the NSG process.

PLAN B if NSG waiver draft language prepared by US does not meet GoI requirement of clean, clear and unconditional

1. MMS writes to Bush requesting that since proposed NSG waiver does not meet US commitments in J18, India does not wish the US to proceed with the NSG process, a la letter from Nehru to Eisenhower politely declining when the US Congress wanted both arms and both legs from India in return for parting with steel plant technology in the 50s.

2. Wait for a few years, and voila, get the needed uranium from non NSG sources and, maybe, some LWRs from Russia, using the approved IAEA umbrella safeguards agreement.

3. In the meantime, very publicly shred J18, M2, Hyde, and 123 because the US has failed in its J18 commitment to adjust international regimes to enable full civil nuclear cooperation with India.

This should keep everyone on the straight and narrow path. Folks: remember, the US has threatened to walk out of NSG, which would end the existence of NSG. There are other countries which can also walk out of NSG without much cost, or dare anyone to expel them from NSG, since they give more to NSG by their membership than they get from it.

btw, who helped us build steel plants at Bhilai, Bokaro, etc after the polite letter sent by Nehru to Eisenhower?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sivab »

http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/st ... 0080059725
No compromise with NSG: Kakodkar
Pallava Bagla
Saturday, August 02, 2008, (Vienna, Austria)
Having gotten the much-needed approval for the India specific Safeguards agreement from the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the highly reclusive chief of the Indian atomic energy program Dr Anil Kakodkar spoke exclusively to NDTV in Vienna where he now hopes the US will make good on its promise at the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the next big challenge for the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Q. Welcome Dr Kakodkar, so what are your first thoughts after the approval?

A: I'm happy that the board of governors of the IAEA has approved the India specific safeguards by consensus. Of course, now, to move ahead with the next step, to move towards civil-nuclear co-operation with all friendly countries.

Q: What were your thoughts in the Boardroom when you heard the Irish and the Swiss stiffly opposing what is really a dream for you?

A: No, I don't think it was an opposition. You must realise and recognise that the approval by the Board is by consensus and that means everybody has joined that consensus. It's true that each country has its position and they do articulate their position. But then India's position on all those issues, particularly related to NPT, CTBT and other such is well known. We have a principled position on this. We should also recognize that India has been responsible all along.

Q: Good boy India?

A: Well that is for others to tell. But the fact is in our psychological make-up we have always worked with a high sense of responsibility. We have to guard our national interest but we have also been pursuing international relations with very high principle value as well as high responsibility

Q: So is the national interest protected?

A: Well yes. The India specific safeguard document text has been released quite sometime back everyone has seen that and that entirely protects Indian interests and that's the document that matters.

Q: What about the next steps? How does it look for you at the NSG? I know India is not a member of the NSG but you will have to do a lot of lobbying and you've been lobbying for the last few days and next couple of days that you are here? What do feel it's going to be at NSG?

A: All of us as Indians have to do our lobbying and that's what is being done by several important people but I think it is primarily the undertaking taken by United States as per the July 2005 statement and so we expect that they will deliver a clean and unconditional NSG exemption because that's very important for us. So, and again as I said India has been always taking a very principled position so we look forward to that clean and unconditional exemption.

Q: Last time you had said clean, clear and unconditional. So why have you dropped clear?

A: Well I can repeat that. Clean, clear and unconditional. I think clean and clear means the same thing. Unconditional is to make sure. The point is India is not a non-nuclear weapon state. NSG guidelines are essentially meant for non-nuclear weapons states. Now while India will maintain it's responsible behavior all along but then we will expect the world community to also treat us the way we are and it is in that context the NSG which has a condition for comprehensive safeguard agreement as a condition for supply which is clearly not applicable in the case of India because India has its own strategic programme and it is that that had to be waived otherwise they have to treat India as India is.

Q: Well certainly today you were treated as a country in a unique status you're happy about getting a unique status in the world?

A: I think India is unique, India is arriving on the global scene and we should see the world recognizing its place.

Q: How does the NSG draft look to you?

A: Well I'm not going to talk to you on this because it is a matter which is under discussion but suffice to say we must get a clean and unconditional NSG exemption.

Q: So if we don't get a clean, clear and unconditional waiver are we willing to walk out at that stage?

A: Well we'll have to certainly look at that but I hope that situation will not come.

Q: The PM said we will make our own decisions. Do you think that still holds good?

A: Of course. Whatever the PM says has to hold good. It will hold good. Sure.

Q: You are one of the key players in the Indian atomic energy establishment who played a key role in 1974 when the first Pokhran blasts happened. You were the lead person when 1998 Pokhran II happened and now when the nuclear apartheid and the untouchability status is being removed. How do you feel about that?

A: I think let's not attach too many of these adjectives. We should recognise that all of us as Indians have to work in the best interest of our country and we should do that with the sound principles. It was so behind our actions in 74, in 98 and is today.

Q: But you've been there common throughout.

A: Well there are others. These things are not individual, we shouldn't take them as individual, and they are all team spirit. I have team of several people from Department of Atomic Energy, Ministry of External Affairs, our embassy people are here. So it's always a team effort whether 74 or 98. So we should move in a very mature manner.

Q: Will you sleep well tonight?

A: I always sleep well

Q:You always sleep well. But after having won this small battle?

A: No I think this is one positive step forward we need to also take some steps there is more work to do.

Q: How close is Delhi?

A: Aap ko maalum hoga ketni kilometre hai Delhi.

Q: NSG or uske aage?

A: Delhi hai. Hum log to rahi hai chalte jao. Kabhi to manzil hassil hogey.

Q: Manzil hassil hoga. Pukka?

A: Hope so.

Q: Domestic programme ka kya hoga?

A: Woh to chalega.

Q: So the domestic programme will go on as intensive as it was?

A: Of course it will. It has to because we are looking at this international civil nuclear cooperation as an addition.

Q: You coined that phrase it doesn't exist in the dictionary?

A: I know. But, no harm. Dictionary always adds new words.

Q: Now looking back, the goalposts have remained where they were?

A: I don't understand. What you mean by that?

Q: You said the goalposts were being shifted by others.

A: When I notice that I will say. But let's move forward in a positive spirit.

Q: And the spirit is high?

A: Well, ok yes.

So there we have it. Directly from the man who played an important role in 74, in 98 and was also responsible for removing that nuclear apartheid status at least from the IAEA to India. The next steps are not going to be easy, Dr Kakodkar himself says that. Let's see what happens further.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

sivab wrote:http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/st ... 0080059725
No compromise with NSG: Kakodkar
Pallava Bagla
Saturday, August 02, 2008, (Vienna, Austria)
Having gotten the much-needed approval for the India specific Safeguards agreement from the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the highly reclusive chief of the Indian atomic energy program Dr Anil Kakodkar spoke exclusively to NDTV in Vienna where he now hopes the US will make good on its promise at the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the next big challenge for the Indo-US nuclear deal.

....... . .. . Q: Last time you had said clean, clear and unconditional. So why have you dropped clear?

A: Well I can repeat that. Clean, clear and unconditional. I think clean and clear means the same thing. Unconditional is to make sure. The point is India is not a non-nuclear weapon state. NSG guidelines are essentially meant for non-nuclear weapons states. Now while India will maintain it's responsible behavior all along but then we will expect the world community to also treat us the way we are and it is in that context the NSG which has a condition for comprehensive safeguard agreement as a condition for supply which is clearly not applicable in the case of India because India has its own strategic programme and it is that that had to be waived otherwise they have to treat India as India is.
I am glad Anil Kakodkar has put this on record in this press interview, this is very important for India. Will believe it when the full NSG document is made public. I have seen too many near misses (as the food moves from hand to mouth) in this India-US Nuclear deal, to take anyone's words as sacrosanct/immutable final truth.

That should put US spin-miesters on the spot they deserve.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

Manmohan gave us what Atal refused
by Nimesh Dikshit on Aug 01, 2008 02:50 AM Permalink | Hide replies
Manmohan gave us what Atal refused: US expert
Author:
Publication: Deccan Chronicle
Date: July 22, 2006

Former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee was not willing to \"offer much to the United States in exchange for the (civilian nuclear energy) agreement, we got more from the government of Dr Manmohan Singh,\" according to Dr Ashley Tellis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Dr Tellis worked with US officials on the nuclear agreement with India.

Dr Tellis, who was earlier posted at the US embassy here as adviser to former ambassador Robert Blackwill, told Internet news site Rediff that the Vajpayee government also wanted the deal, but one could not be reached because it was not giving much to the US. He said he could not disclose what Washington had wanted from the Vajpayee government but had been unable to get.

Asked by the reporter if Dr Manmohan Singh had caved in \"easily\", Dr Tellis said, \"There is no question of Dr Singh caving in, India has got a deal that it would not have got in the past or in the future.\" Sources close to Mr Vajpayee said there were three points that his government was not willing to concede to Washington with a clear record of this being established through the Jaswant Singh-Strobe Talbott talks. These concerned the CTBT, the moratorium on fissile production and a proposed restrain in the nuclear regime.

Atal should come out and say what was that?
So UPA promised moratorium on testing but also other concessions including foreign policy compliance.

"90 percent of India's nuclear establishment would be under IAEA safeguards�none of that would have been possible without this deal"

This is essence explains the deal.

Pakistan could sabotage the deal by testing N bomb

by Prem Bhardwaj on Aug 01, 2008 02:04 AM Permalink | Hide replies

I would like to ask experts & govt , if they have factored in the scenario where India is restricted from testing due to Hyde act & 123 agreement, however Pakistan goes ahead & starts testing N-weapons. This would lead to 2 situations-
1. India would respond & start testing again ,which would lead to ending of the N-deal with US & NSG.
2. India will not test & thereby give a huge strategic, tactical, technological & psychological advantage to Pakistan & the Jihadis , who will be further emboldened to carry out a misadventure against India & on a larger scale than previously executed.

What will our Govt & experts have to say on the above scenario.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by vishwakarmaa »

Acharya wrote:
Pakistan could sabotage the deal by testing N bomb

by Prem Bhardwaj on Aug 01, 2008 02:04 AM Permalink | Hide replies

I would like to ask experts & govt , if they have factored in the scenario where India is restricted from testing due to Hyde act & 123 agreement, however Pakistan goes ahead & starts testing N-weapons. This would lead to 2 situations-
1. India would respond & start testing again ,which would lead to ending of the N-deal with US & NSG.
2. India will not test & thereby give a huge strategic, tactical, technological & psychological advantage to Pakistan & the Jihadis , who will be further emboldened to carry out a misadventure against India & on a larger scale than previously executed.

What will our Govt & experts have to say on the above scenario.
Prem Bhardwaj sounds paranoid.

1. Pakistan has a monkey's brain. It won't test unless India tests.
2. This doesn't arise.

Rather he should ask -

1. What after F-16s?
2. What Unkill will gift its puppet pakistan for his performance in IAEA, helping her put conditions in the NSG draft?
3. After how many months, US will ask China to gift pakistan 4 new Nuclear reactors, after conclusion of Indian nuclear pact?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Acharya wrote:
Pakistan could sabotage the deal by testing N bomb

by Prem Bhardwaj on Aug 01, 2008 02:04 AM Permalink | Hide replies

I would like to ask experts & govt , if they have factored in the scenario where India is restricted from testing due to Hyde act & 123 agreement, however Pakistan goes ahead & starts testing N-weapons. This would lead to 2 situations-
1. India would respond & start testing again ,which would lead to ending of the N-deal with US & NSG.
2. India will not test & thereby give a huge strategic, tactical, technological & psychological advantage to Pakistan & the Jihadis , who will be further emboldened to carry out a misadventure against India & on a larger scale than previously executed.

What will our Govt & experts have to say on the above scenario.
Pakistan wouldn't be testing for the next 15 years, simply because they are living a hand-to-mouth life. Something like, "Allah ke naam pe, 2 Dollar dede baba!" Their economy is in shambles. Last time, they could sell their explosions as being in response to India. Unprovoked Nuclear Testing is totally different matter altogether. El Baradei has dangled a Carrot in front of them, that they too could get nuclear deal in the future, only they will have to wait another 40 years for the carrot to become ripe. So maybe, that would give Pakistan a reason to play Beeba Bachaa. In short, Pakistan cannot afford any more nuclear tests, especially the unprovoked kind.

After 15 years of Taliban, BLA, Karachi Gangsters, Zardaris, Gillanis, On-and-off Coups, American Friendship, etc. there will not be much of Pakistan, to speak of anyway, and maybe some US President or even Indian PM would be able to convince moth-eaten Pakistan that it can trade every two nuclear bombs from its stocks for a Bori Rice.

India will test only if China tests. But China too has too much going for it, to play games.
Last edited by RajeshA on 02 Aug 2008 13:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by pradeepe »

sivab wrote:http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/st ... 0080059725
No compromise with NSG: Kakodkar
Great interview. Its not done till its done and all that, but will we see apologies here on BRF.

NSG being the last hurdle will bring it own challenges. Full court press needed.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by amit »

vishwakarmaa wrote:
Prem Bhardwaj sounds paranoid.


1. Pakistan has a monkey's brain. It won't test unless India tests.
2. This doesn't arise.

Rather he should ask -

1. What after F-16s?
2. What Unkill will gift its puppet pakistan for his performance in IAEA, helping her put conditions in the NSG draft?
3. After how many months, US will ask China to gift pakistan 4 new Nuclear reactors, after conclusion of Indian nuclear pact?
And you talk about someone being paranoid!
:rotfl:
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Singha »

pakistan has tested chinese designs via the good offices of Dr Mubarakmand.
why would they need to test when the original owners are satisfied with the
same weapons?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Muppalla »

RajeshA wrote:
Raju wrote:canadians are afraid that their poodle-status is under threat.
Hasn't anybody told them, we are not applying for that job.
Do we have to tell them otherwise they cannot understand. What a confusion/competition ? :)
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by shiv »

If Pakistan tests a bomb - it would be the best possible thing for India to play it cool and say "We are happy with what we have" and let Pakistan face the consequences. If, after 6 months to 1 year Pakistan faces no consequences, India would have to test, knowing that the world is not serious about sanctions.

Pakistan rescued India in 1998.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

ArrahoAkbal! I DO think Pakistan should test, to save the Honor and Dignity of Pakistan. Teach the kufr a lesson! ACCUSING Pakistan of supporting TERRORISM when Pakistan is NUMBER ONE victim of terrorism! :((

And on top of that, they offer the yindoos a NEW CLEAR DEAL! The only halal response is to test a few more nukes given by the Tarrer than Ocean, deepel than Mountain fliends! :twisted:
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by vsudhir »

shiv wrote:If Pakistan tests a bomb - it would be the best possible thing for India to play it cool and say "We are happy with what we have" and let Pakistan face the consequences. If, after 6 months to 1 year Pakistan faces no consequences, India would have to test, knowing that the world is not serious about sanctions.

Pakistan rescued India in 1998.
Better still, we will setup NPA think-tanks in neutral lands (say, Singapore, Canada etc) and loudly pontificate on why Baki bums are total fizzles only, why baki deterrence and capabilites hollowness are totally exposed only and why Baki re-testing is totally mandatory and imminent. That way, they can safely exhaust whatever stock of stuff they got frm PRC.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by p_saggu »

They only tested two (or three - the one failed one that Helmut Kohl told everyone about at the G-8, two weeks before may 28th) the last time around and called it six.

What's to stop them (ie the chinese) testing again and calling it 10^5 bums tested onlee???
Paapistan does not have verified nuclear weapons tech of its own. Pakistan testing is only china testing with the Burka on. Why give cheen the chance?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by rajrang »

sivab wrote:http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/st ... 0080059725
No compromise with NSG: Kakodkar
Pallava Bagla
Saturday, August 02, 2008, (Vienna, Austria)
Having gotten the much-needed approval for the India specific Safeguards agreement from the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the highly reclusive chief of the Indian atomic energy program Dr Anil Kakodkar spoke exclusively to NDTV in Vienna where he now hopes the US will make good on its promise

Q: You are one of the key players in the Indian atomic energy establishment who played a key role in 1974 when the first Pokhran blasts happened. You were the lead person when 1998 Pokhran II happened and now when the nuclear apartheid and the untouchability status is being removed. How do you feel about that?

A: I think let's not attach too many of these adjectives. We should recognise that all of us as Indians have to work in the best interest of our country and we should do that with the sound principles. It was so behind our actions in 74, in 98 and is today.

Q: And the spirit is high?

A: Well, ok yes.

So there we have it. Directly from the man who played an important role in 74, in 98 and was also responsible for removing that nuclear apartheid status at least from the IAEA to India. The next steps are not going to be easy, Dr Kakodkar himself says that. Let's see what happens further.

Is this reported ignorant? Assuming AK is 60 today, then in 1974 he would have been 26. I cannot believe that he would have played an "important role" in the 1974 blasts. As though India's atomic programme did not have any other intelligent people.
I wish AK had corrected him on the spot.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by rajrang »

amit wrote:
vishwakarmaa wrote:
Prem Bhardwaj sounds paranoid.


1. Pakistan has a monkey's brain. It won't test unless India tests.
2. This doesn't arise.

Rather he should ask -

1. What after F-16s?
2. What Unkill will gift its puppet pakistan for his performance in IAEA, helping her put conditions in the NSG draft?
3. After how many months, US will ask China to gift pakistan 4 new Nuclear reactors, after conclusion of Indian nuclear pact?
And you talk about someone being paranoid!
:rotfl:
I would not call this paranoid - merely healthy suspicion. In international politics such things happen all the time. I will not be surprised if the US and other Western countries start announcing arms sales / exercises etc. with Pak. In addition Pak is now a "fellow democracy" to make it easier politically. There are also arms manufacturers's lobbies and jobs at stake in these countries.

Has the US not sold arms repeatedly to Pak dictatorships over the decades in spite of knowing that the arms will be used against the largest fellow democracy in the world - India?

In fact I recall something about US arms sales to Pak in the press within a couple of days after the no-confidence motion was defeated in India.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

rajrang wrote: Is this reported ignorant? Assuming AK is 60 today, then in 1974 he would have been 26. I cannot believe that he would have played an "important role" in the 1974 blasts. As though India's atomic programme did not have any other intelligent people.
I wish AK had corrected him on the spot.
Smiling Buddha: 1974
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/IndiaSmiling.html
Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) Team

BARC Team Lead: Raja Ramanna, Director of BARC

Team Second-in-Command: P.K. Iyengar (responsible for the actual manufacture of the device)

* Nuclear System Design Team
o Team lead: Rajagopala Chidambaram
o Satinder Kumar Sikka
* Electronic Detonation System Team
o Team lead: Pranab Rebatiranjan Dastidar
o Sekharipuram Narayana Aiyer Seshadri
* Neutron Initiator Team
o Vasudev K. Iya
o T.S. Murthy
o C.V. Sundaram
* Plutonium Core Fabrication Team
o Team lead: P.R. Roy
* System Integration Team
o Team lead: Jitendra Nath Soni
o Anil Kakodkar

Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) Team

DRDO coordinator: B.D. Nag Chaudhuri, Director of the DRDO and science advisor to the Minister of Defense

* High Explosive Implosion System Team
o Team lead: Nagapattinam Sambasiva Venkatesan, Director of Terminal Ballistics Research Laboratory (TBRL)
o Muthuswamy Balakrishnan
* Detonator Development Team
o Team lead: Waman Dattatreya Patwardhan at the Explosive Research and Development laboratory (ERDL)
o S.N. Joshi
Instead of fabricating the core as two hemispheres as was done during the Manhattan Project, Soni and Kakodkar designed the core to be made in a number of slices (probably six) that stacked to form a sphere. To ensure a snug fit, the mating surfaces of the slices tapered off with a twist so that they would lock together securely. This design, which they first modeled this in brass, allowed them to work with smaller pieces of plutonium. The actual plutonium core was fabricated by a team led by P.R. Roy of BARC's radio-metallurgy department, who had also made the plutonium fuel rods for Purnima.
The device was assembled in a hut 40 m from the shaft. Assembly began on 13 May with a team made up of Soni, Kakodkar, Iyengar, Venkatesan and Balakrishnan.
After returning to BARC Ramanna pushed forward efforts in other areas. The work on Dhruva had been languishing but Ramanna made its completion a top priority in 1981, making Anil Kakodkar a principal engineer on the project
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

'We reject Indo US Nuclear Deal' campaign begins
The 'We reject Indo US Nuclear Deal' campaign was launched today in Lucknow by Dr Sandeep Pandey, Ramon Magsaysay Awardee (2002) and convener of National Alliance of People's Movements (NAPM).
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Rahul M »

calling the experts :--

questions :

a) deal stalls in NSG even if one members vetoes, right ??

b)in case that happens, what would be the next step ??

TIA.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

Grannies Active against Uranium
Lyngdoh, 82, is one of the matriarchs of Domiasiat, a uranium-rich region in West Khasi Hills district of Meghalaya, in Northeast India. And like others of her ilk, she knows how difficult life can be if the "monster mineral" is aroused from its subterranean bed.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

Countries that actually supply nuclear stuff (France, Russia, USA, Canada, Australia etc) are unlikely to allow countries that supply only non-nuclear hot air (New Zealand, Ireland, Austria etc) to dictate their commercial operations for long. They will probably threaten to form their own group. The hot air crowd, desperate for a seat at the table, will probably oblige.
The Bush administration is privately threatening to leave the Nuclear Suppliers Group if it does not expeditiously approve the Indo-US nuclear deal by allowing member countries to engage in nuclear commerce with Delhi, a highly respected American arms control expert has alleged.

Henry Sokolski, who worked in the US defence secretary’s office as deputy for non-proliferation policy and was later a member of the CIA’s senior advisory panel, wrote in The Wall Street Journal today that “the US actually has been twisting arms at the NSG... and so dissolve the group if countries critical of the India deal did not fall into line on India”.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

rajrang wrote: Is this reported ignorant? Assuming AK is 60 today, then in 1974 he would have been 26. I cannot believe that he would have played an "important role" in the 1974 blasts. As though India's atomic programme did not have any other intelligent people.

I wish AK had corrected him on the spot.
Anil Kakodkar, 56, Atomic Scientist, NUKE STAR RISING

That was in Dec 27, 1999.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sivab »

http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/03/stories ... 130100.htm
Kakodkar: India is firm on unconditional waiver

Siddharth Varadarajan

“Conditions will take away with one hand what has been given with the other”
Anil Kakodkar

Vienna: Describing the “clean and unconditional exemption” India wants from the Nuclear Suppliers Group as being of “crucial importance” to the successful implementation of the Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement, Atomic Energy Commission chairman Anil Kakodkar said on Saturday that the inclusion of conditions “would literally take away with one hand what has been given with the other.”

In an exclusive interview to The Hindu the morning after the International Atomic Energy Agency approved India’s safeguards agreement, Dr. Kakodkar also spelt out for the first time the conceptual difference between the Indian and American approaches to the NSG issue.

The suppliers group was a cartel that had rules for the sale of nuclear material to non-nuclear weapon states and its guidelines were therefore riddled with extraneous conditions which had no relevance to India, he said. “The NSG guidelines apply to non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS). So our preference is for the NSG to simply say that these guidelines do not apply to India. If they are unwilling to say that, at a minimum, the requirement of full-scope safeguards and other prescriptive elements in the guidelines that are intended for NNWS must be waived for India.”

Describing the NSG guidelines as a “weave meant for non-nuclear weapon states,” Dr. Kakodkar said there were “references and requirements here and there” and India has to be careful that “such conditions do not come in even indirectly.” “If you read the NSG guidelines as a whole, right at the top, it says these prescriptions are for non-nuclear weapons states. There is an enunciation of the requirement that countries must accept full-scope safeguards. There is language about what happens if one of these states tests, there is restrictive language on enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) equipment, and so on.”

Asked about the sort of conditions India was being asked to accept, the AEC chairman said the U.S. had still not given India its proposals. “Of course, we are very clear that there cannot be any linkage with nuclear tests,” he said. India was committed to its voluntary moratorium “but just as in the 123 agreement with the U.S., there cannot be any explicit linkage to nuclear testing as a condition in the NSG,” he added. Nor should there be any advice or suggestion that India must join the NPT or accept the conditions that non-nuclear weapon states are subject to. The NSG had to realise India cannot be treated as an NNWS. “I am not interested in labels like the NPT definition of a nuclear weapon state because we are what we are,” said Dr. Kakodkar. “But certainly we don’t want the other label to be attached to us either.”

India, Dr. Kakodkar stressed, “should be treated as it is.” After all, it has concluded agreements on nuclear commerce with Russia and France, and even with the U.S. “Are any of these elements present in those agreements? So our view is that all these things in the NSG are extraneous. Tomorrow, if the political situation changes, all these things can create difficulties.”

In the very first draft of proposed changes to the NSG guidelines circulated in March 2006, the U.S. had inserted a line that NSG members would “continue to strive for the earliest possible implementation” of full-scope safeguards on Indian nuclear facilities.” That draft, said Dr. Kakodkar, “has been thrown out. It no longer exists.” But he expressed concern about the delay in the final framing of the proposed guideline changes. “We don’t want a situation where there is some kind of fait accompli and we don’t have time to examine things.”
Last edited by sivab on 03 Aug 2008 02:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sivab »

http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/03/stories ... 630800.htm
India should stick to its terms, says Kakodkar

Siddarth Varadarajan

Accord recognises there is a nuclear programme outside the civil one in the country

Vienna: Because of India’s bitter experiences in the past, its current approach towards nuclear cooperation was to build in “a high degree of redundancy” especially in terms of ensuring the continuity of reactor operations and assured fuel supply, Atomic Energy Commission chairman Anil Kakodkar told The Hindu in an exclusive interview.

“We have to have tie-ups with A, B, C, D and E. But the NSG is a cartel, so all countries could get together and the redundancy we are seeking to build could get reduced to a knot in one stroke,” he added.

“Our aim is for the redundancy to remain protected. This is the main thing we have to achieve. That is what is behind the slogan of a clean and unconditional exemption. And I am firm and committed that we must get this.”


Asked whether India would walk away if the NSG failed to provide a clean and unconditional waiver, Dr. Kakodkar said, “Why not?” He described the India-specific safeguards agreement (ISSA) as something that would remain a useful achievement.

“We have six reactors that are already under separate safeguards. All of them can be subsumed under the ISSA. And as and when someone wants to cooperate with us, everything else can be brought into this as well. The NSG guidelines are there for the suppliers but if someone wants to trade with India, the ISSA is useful.” The safeguards agreement creates a “distinctive class for India,” he said, because it is the “first multilateral instrument that recognises there is a nuclear programme in the country which remains outside the civil programme.”

“So I believe the ISSA is useful by itself, though our intention is not to remain there but to go beyond and start cooperation.”

Asked about the concerns that have been expressed within India about the intentions of the United States and other countries, Dr. Kakodkar said that “if you want to go to a new equilibrium, you have to be in troubled waters first. In a frozen situation, you cannot make change.”

Regardless of the intentions of other countries “and there is no reason to assume those intentions are benign, i.e. that they are just looking for business opportunities,” he said, India would have to steer itself carefully in order to be able to reposition itself in the emerging global system.

Time was of the essence, he said, because the renaissance of nuclear power worldwide had increased commercial interest and raised security concerns too. “There will be a readjustment worldwide and our position is quite strong. If we stick to our terms, it should work.”
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

“Our aim is for the redundancy to remain protected. This is the main thing we have to achieve. That is what is behind the slogan of a clean and unconditional exemption. And I am firm and committed that we must get this.”
In short, from Indian PoV and for the purpose of the Indian civilian nuclear program, NSG does not exist.

And, by extension, India is a NWS. No one has to say it.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Virupaksha »

NRao wrote:
“Our aim is for the redundancy to remain protected. This is the main thing we have to achieve. That is what is behind the slogan of a clean and unconditional exemption. And I am firm and committed that we must get this.”
In short, from Indian PoV and for the purpose of the Indian civilian nuclear program, NSG does not exist.

And, by extension, India is a NWS. No one has to say it.
If we remember the origin of NSG in the first place, India would have officially pi***d on NSG.:twisted: :rotfl:

Edit: In the whole setup, I for one could never get the secrecy of India's moves. Hiding some of the motives was understandable, but the IAEA safety document leak proved some excessive paranoria with Indians themselves. When > 5 countries know it, you can believe that it is open to everyone with "access", but it did not believe in Indians themselves. Frankly after reading all the actual documents, I can say that MMS has done a good job, but the excess secrecy hurt him.
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