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Let's get real: if the US armed forces actually went into direct combat with the Russians, the Russians would be slaughtered. NO contest. Short of nuclear war, there is absolutely nothing the Russian armed forces could do in the face of US combat power. There's no clever tactic, no strategic point they could seize, no fantasy "asymmetrical warfare" scenario that would save them. They'd just die. Quickly if they come out to fight; slowly if they run or hide. This is the kind of war America truly excels at; institutionally, their entire armed forces are structured for winning a conventional war against a mechanized opponent. America's already vast technological edge is further enhanced by their force multipliers (theatre-level 24x7 AWACS, JSTARS, sat recon, stealth, air\land\battle doctrine, etc). Russian tanks are like tin cans against US armor and anti-tank weaponry. US aircraft can roam at will striking any target they please and Russia can't even track them. US naval power is vast and overwhelming; all the world's navies put together don't even begin to approach the USN's capabilities. Russia might as well be fighting space aliens.UlanBatori wrote:This is modern warfare. Drones scope out the coordinates and confirm with visuals, real-time. Seconds later, missiles come in. Total precision. PRC has thousands, tens of thousands of these things. What good are Indian 1980s-vintage tanks or 126 imported MRCAs against these? Only vast numbers of dispersed weapons can do any good, and no imports can ever hope to do that. Plus all-out development of electronic countermeasures, drones for detection, improved targeting.
When the Russians decide to really intervene, this is what they will do to the UA: already, drones are scoping out Mariupol and probably Kharkiv. But if the Americans intervene, worse will happen to the Russians because the American style is to first wipe out the air force and all air access. So the Russians will have to react, the moment American air assets (UCAVs, attack helicopters, air superiority fighters) and 'defensive missiles and radar' start coming in. As I see it, they HAVE to take over Kyiv and Odessa to stop the Americans.
The PRC is into relentless R&D, relentless manufacture and deployment of new weapons, and relentless force training and improvement. Lessons 4 India: I best keep quiet.etcMore things are wrought by prayer than this world dreams of.
They couldnt even take on and finish Iraq Insurgency after 10 years in the country and are fighting ISIL and you are telling us US forces would Slaughter Russian forces in their own backyard ...Good LuckY. Kanan wrote: Let's get real: if the US armed forces actually went into direct combat with the Russians, the Russians would be slaughtered. NO contest. Short of nuclear war, there is absolutely nothing the Russian armed forces could do in the face of US combat power. There's no clever tactic, no strategic point they could seize, no fantasy "asymmetrical warfare" scenario that would save them. They'd just die. Quickly if they come out to fight; slowly if they run or hide. This is the kind of war America truly excels at; institutionally, their entire armed forces are structured for winning a conventional war against a mechanized opponent. America's already vast technological edge is further enhanced by their force multipliers (theatre-level 24x7 AWACS, JSTARS, sat recon, stealth, air\land\battle doctrine, etc). Russian tanks are like tin cans against US armor and anti-tank weaponry. US aircraft can roam at will striking any target they please and Russia can't even track them. US naval power is vast and overwhelming; all the world's navies put together don't even begin to approach the USN's capabilities. Russia might as well be fighting space aliens.
Russia can handle opponents like Ukraine and Georgia but they are light-years behind the US military in terms of overall force capability. Which isn't surprising considering the US has outspent Russia by at least 16-1 for the last 30 years, while benefiting from extensive combat experience and superior doctrine and training. Meanwhile Russia's military crumbled into utter ruin and still have only partially recovered. To get the Russian armed forces whipped into shape would take at least 10 years of full funding and a massive institutional change in their military culture.
Russia's defeat would so one-sided, so humiliating, that they'd have no choice but to go full nuclear and go down in a blaze of glory. And I have no doubt the Russians would do just that. They've always had a bit of a crazy or fatalistic streak; rather than accept a humiliating defeat and the inevitable color-revolution in Red Square that would follow, Putin and the Russian leadership would press the button. Those guys may be oligarchs and thugs but they have a strange fierce pride that you just don't see in Indian politicians. They'll die before accepting humiliation and exile.
You want to keep America at bay? Forget about mass producing UCAV's and so on. Just field some ICBM's.
PS:Can these reports be believed? With so much sat recce capability,the US/EU can easily produce pics of "troop movements".All this time there has been scant hard evidence that Russian regular troops have been involved,though Russia has admitted that "volunteers" have taken part in the fighting. This may be scare-mongering by Willy Wanker and co.,desperate to get US material support after "Debacal-seve",and vainly attempt to stop the inevitable of losing more territory in the east which would bring down the Kiev junta like a pack of cards.Putin perhaps smells blood and wants a quick finish.There's little that O'Bumbler and his Joker-ry can scare him of.Optimism fades on ceasefire as Ukrainian government reports separatist troop movements around Mariupol
Emma Gatten
Sunday 22 February 2015
Violence in Ukraine spread today as the country’s second biggest city, Kharkiv, was struck by a bomb attack that killed at least two people.
Kiev was quick to blame Moscow for the attack, saying it had arrested four suspects who had been armed and instructed in Russia.
The attack occurred at a rally marking the anniversary of the death of protesters during the demonstrations that eventually removed pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych from power. A policeman and one other person were confirmed to have died in the blast.
The bombing was a further blow to a shaky ceasefire signed 11 days ago, intended to end the violence in the east of the country where Russian-backed separatists recently took control of the strategic town of Debaltseve.
It raised fears that violence in the country could expand further west, beyond current territory held by the separatists. Kharkiv is more than 120 miles from Ukraine’s front line. Although it has experienced sporadic separatist violence, support for the Kiev government is far more widespread.
“Today is memorial Sunday, but on this day terrorist scum revealed its predatory nature,” President Petro Poroshenko wrote on Facebook. “This is a brazen attempt to expand the territory of terrorism.” Moves towards a ceasefire lent the picture a relatively positive look earlier in the weekend. Late on Saturday government and separatist forces exchanged prisoners.
READ MORE: • The reason for Britain's 'catastrophic misreading' of Russia
Meanwhile, rebel commander Eduard Basurin said on Sunday that his forces would begin withdrawing artillery from the front lines, a condition of the ceasefire signed in Minsk earlier this month.
Ukrainian military spokesman Col Andriy Lysenko said Ukrainian troops would also pull back from the front lines.
But the ceasefire was followed immediately by a decisive victory for separatists in the strategic city of Debaltseve, forcing the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops amid fierce fighting.
Despite the latest measures, Kiev still fears separatist troops may be preparing to move further into the west of the country.
Separatists forces have reportedly moved into the region near to the port city of Mariupol, fuelling fears that it could come under attack. Seizure of the city by the rebels would provide a direct land route between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, the region Moscow annexed a month after the fall of Mr Yanukovych. Many Crimeans consider his overthrow to be a coup.
READ MORE:
• Comment: War or peace, Obama just can't win
• Russia was never going to become just another Western state
Earlier on Saturday the Ukrainian prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, dismissed the idea that the ceasefire was holding. “We don’t have a ceasefire,” he told Fox News, “because a ceasefire means that no one shoots.”
Ukrainian spokesman Col Lysenko quoted Reuters news agency as saying a military train carrying 60 armoured vehicles including tanks had arrived in the town of Amvrosiivka from Russia over the weekend, and said a convoy of military equipment had later crossed the border near Novoazovsk, east of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov.
He added that fighting was in progress at the village of Shyrokyne, east of Mariupol.
Moscow did not immediately respond to Kiev’s accusation that it had a hand in Sunday’s bombing. However, Markian Lubkivskyi, an aide to the head of Ukraine’s SBU security service, said of the suspects detained: “They are Ukrainian citizens who underwent instruction and received weapons in the Russian Federation, in Belgorod [a city across the nearby Russian border from Kharkiv].”
Longer term, the US needs to think about how to be a triangular great power. Most US strategic thinkers agree that it is China, not Russia, that poses the most significant 21st century geopolitical challenge to the United States. Strategy 101 would then dictate that Russia should be a counterweight to rising China.
But at the moment US (and European) policy is pushing Russia into China’s arms. This, we would argue, is a geopolitical mistake. If the US-Russia rift is not healed, it is China that will be the winner.
The Economic Risk to Russia is low compared to say if the same were to happen 20 years back or even 15.Shreeman wrote: The harm to russia is in a. integration in world economy, b. loss of markets. Neither kills a russia. India was isolated for 50 years, so was china. And NK isnt even dead yet. So we are not dealing with einsteins here as far as wishes being horses.
You perhaps have forgotten the fact that Russia in its new mil doctrine mentioned explicitly about first strike option of tactical nukes? From what I remember of Russian MBT's, they are extremely well optimized for their plains and their features & surroundings. The US MBT's will struggle a bit in those places. And I am not quite sure that the Russian MBT's will be plain tin cans in the face of US anti-tanks and weapons and armory. Agreed, US will have an upper hand... but not the way you are painting it. Lets remember that the Russians have silo based mobile theatre ballistic missiles and such too. Mostly MIRV.Y. Kanan wrote: Let's get real: if the US armed forces actually went into direct combat with the Russians, the Russians would be slaughtered. NO contest. Short of nuclear war, there is absolutely nothing the Russian armed forces could do in the face of US combat power. There's no clever tactic, no strategic point they could seize, no fantasy "asymmetrical warfare" scenario that would save them. They'd just die. Quickly if they come out to fight; slowly if they run or hide. This is the kind of war America truly excels at; institutionally, their entire armed forces are structured for winning a conventional war against a mechanized opponent. America's already vast technological edge is further enhanced by their force multipliers (theatre-level 24x7 AWACS, JSTARS, sat recon, stealth, air\land\battle doctrine, etc). Russian tanks are like tin cans against US armor and anti-tank weaponry. US aircraft can roam at will striking any target they please and Russia can't even track them. US naval power is vast and overwhelming; all the world's navies put together don't even begin to approach the USN's capabilities. Russia might as well be fighting space aliens.
Russia can handle opponents like Ukraine and Georgia but they are light-years behind the US military in terms of overall force capability. Which isn't surprising considering the US has outspent Russia by at least 16-1 for the last 30 years, while benefiting from extensive combat experience and superior doctrine and training. Meanwhile Russia's military crumbled into utter ruin and still have only partially recovered. To get the Russian armed forces whipped into shape would take at least 10 years of full funding and a massive institutional change in their military culture.
Russia's defeat would so one-sided, so humiliating, that they'd have no choice but to go full nuclear and go down in a blaze of glory. And I have no doubt the Russians would do just that. They've always had a bit of a crazy or fatalistic streak; rather than accept a humiliating defeat and the inevitable color-revolution in Red Square that would follow, Putin and the Russian leadership would press the button. Those guys may be oligarchs and thugs but they have a strange fierce pride that you just don't see in Indian politicians. They'll die before accepting humiliation and exile.
You want to keep America at bay? Forget about mass producing UCAV's and so on. Just field some ICBM's.
8 minutes ago: Russian/separatist in Kominternove have hit Ukrainian forces at Lebedynske, 5km from outskirts of #Mariupol #Ukraine
Right Now I/O Feed 15 minutes ago: RT @MaxRTucker: Russian/separatist in Kominternove ha... http://www.rightnow.io/breaking-news/pr ... 91254.html … #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Debaltseve #Mariupol via @molodyko
Conflict News 16 minutes ago: RU/separatist in Kominternove have hit Ukrainian forces at Lebedynske, 5km from outskirts of #Mariupol - @MaxRTucker
Only if there are enough Gurkhas to do the dying. :roll:Gurkhas were sent even into the Falklands. Oh, wait! Gurkhas are not enough."and its poodle UQ".
A new unit would inherit many of the “proud traditions of Sikh regiments” from the Army’s past, he said.
Thousands of Sikh soldiers served in the British Army in the 19th century and in the First and Second World Wars, and 10 Victoria Crosses have been won by soldiers serving in Sikh regiments.
Reviving a Sikh unit has been suggested several times in the past. One recent attempt was abandoned in 2007 by the Ministry of Defence amid fears that the move would be branded racist.
So the next coup is coming "CEO" Semenchenko, perhaps?Klart Skepp 4 minutes ago
"Reports of Clashes Between Kiev and DPR Forces Close to Mariupol" #putinmedia Putin continuing to #Mariupol http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/libra ... tnik01.htm …
Alcuin Bramerton 4 minutes ago: #Ukraine: #Semenchenko discharged from National Guard. http://bit.ly/1DLCCvW #Kyiv #Odessa #Kharkov
AmericanDefenseNews 6 minutes ago Melitopol: seized in a blitzkrieg. Two critical cities to be seized as staging ground for an offensive on #Mariupol. #Ukraine 3/3
Per UBCN Anal-e-sys, the war will have to end once Mariupol is liberated (better to quit while ahead, etc). So Kharkiv has to be liberated BEFORE Mariupol. Vodka flowing into Kharkiv will force Kyiv Nazis to rush back and form defenses at the west bank of the Dnieper. Then Mariupol becomes a walkover.Newsium @Newsium 28m28 minutes ago
"#BREAKINGNEWS #ANALYSIS #MAP THE RUSSIAN ARMY STARTED ITS OFFENSIVE EAST OF ..." #MARIUPOL. http://www.supernoder.com/newsium.php?ref=BreakingNews …
The leaders of France and Germany genuinely want to find a compromise that would help end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his latest interview.
Speaking to Rossiya 1 TV channel on the conflict and the breakthrough of the Minsk agreement, Putin said that “it seemed to me [the leaders of France and Germany], have a genuine desire to find such compromise solutions that would lead to the final settlement [of the conflict]...”
He cited the Minsk protocol which includes the decentralization of power in Ukraine and a “reference explaining what it implies.” The authors of the reference are "our German and French partners,” he said, adding that this speaks of their sincerity in finding a compromise.
“I had the impression that our partners have more trust in us than distrust, and in any case believe in our sincerity,” Putin said on Monday.
Putin once again underlined the importance of implementing the Minsk agreement reached on February 12 by the Normandy Four – Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany. “If the Minsk agreement will be implemented, I’m sure the situation will gradually normalize,” he said.
Arms pullback begins in E. Ukraine as OSCE releases footage of devastated Debaltsevo
While answering a question about the possibility of Russia waging war with Ukraine, Putin said that “such an apocalyptic scenario is hardly possible, and I hope this will never happen.”
Putin also dismissed as “complete nonsense” claims made by Poroshenko and the head of the Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), Valentin Nalyvaychenko, that Russia’s presidential aide Vladislav Surkov was involved in tragic events during last year’s protests in Kiev.
Speaking on Crimea, the president urged the international community to respect the region’s choice to rejoin Russia.
“With regard to nationality, the residents of Crimea have made their choice [when they voted to join Russia] and it should be respected. Russia cannot treat it otherwise,” he said.
Commenting on Poroshenko’s statement that Kiev intends to regain Crimea, Putin said that such actions have a “revenge nature.” He stressed that as a large European country, Ukraine should focus on “strengthening the economy and social sector, and mend relations with the southeastern part of the country.”
America sucks at counterinsurgency warfare. Most nations do, actually. COIN ops negate most of America's military advantages; it comes down to determination, staying power and sheer ruthlessness. America fails miserably at all three.Austin wrote:They couldnt even take on and finish Iraq Insurgency after 10 years in the country and are fighting ISIL and you are telling us US forces would Slaughter Russian forces in their own backyard ...Good Luck
You misunderstand me. I'm not celebrating US military dominance. Just being a realist.Tuvaluan wrote:Sign of a true believer to overlook US's half a dozen miserable defeats in various wars around the world in the recent past, and still pretend that the US is a super-duper power that wears its undies over its pants, ready to fight for freedom, truth, justice and the american way. Russia? pfft..just a matter of slamming them down to the ground and making them beg for mercy over a long weekend.
No they sure as hell wouldn't. They'd go nuclear.Pratyush wrote:The US may be able to beat the Russians in a straight up conventional fight, and then what??
Do you think that the Russians will just go into the night.
only in short term. In long term they can do a Soviet. Which is to set up parallel monetary system and international funds transfer network. Who is the loser then, if half the world distances itself from US $ via this network. If USA loses the ability to launch wars at its choosing, it will sooner or later collapse as world reserve currency. Which it maintains through defacto blackmail. Once it loses its ability to be a world reserve currency, it loses the ability to create debt and fund it military machine. The entire ethos of USA is dependent upon creation of disproportionate debt and thus attracting the best talent with illusions of endless bounty.Y. Kanan wrote:they can do plenty of damage to Russia just with increasingly harsh sanctions and economic isolation; arming Ukraine isn't even necessary.
US arming Kiev would ‘explode’ situation in E. Ukraine – Russian Foreign Ministry
Published time: February 24,
If the US were to supply Ukraine with ammunition and weapons, it would “explode the whole situation” in eastern Ukraine and Russia would be forced to respond “appropriately,” Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said.
“It would be a major blow to the Minsk agreements and would explode the whole situation,” TASS quoted Ryabkov as saying.
Moscow would not be able to remain indifferent “to such provocative actions,” he added. “We’ll have to respond appropriately.”
“Is that necessary for those who are allegedly calling for the normalization of the situation in Ukraine? I have serious doubts. People may be irresponsible in their actions, but there must be an end to this madness [of] indulging Kiev’s warmongering,” explained Ryabkov.
The deputy foreign minister's statement follows a renewed call by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko for the US to arm Kiev forces. Poroshenko made the most recent comments during a conversation with US Vice President Joe Biden.
The head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, told reporters on Monday that the US is already supplying Kiev with ammunition and weapons on a “large-scale basis,” noting that pro-government forces are not looking for peace.
Ryabkov added that there is a possible meeting in the works between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry, stating that it could take place next week in Geneva.
“Rather high chances are present that the Russian foreign minister and the US secretary of state will be in Geneva the next week due to the schedules of each of them. Probably, it...implies that they will meet in a bilateral format,” he said.
Earlier, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev stated that if Moscow were to respond to the supply of US arms to Kiev, it would only do so through “diplomatic means.”
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in his latest interview that the leaders of France and Germany genuinely want to find a compromise that would help end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Speaking to Rossiya 1 TV channel on the conflict and the breakthrough of the Minsk agreement, Putin said that “it seemed to me [the leaders of France and Germany], have a genuine desire to find such compromise solutions that would lead to the final settlement [of the conflict]…”
“I had the impression that our partners have more trust in us than distrust, and in any case believe in our sincerity,” Putin noted on Monday.
On Sunday, Kiev’s military and self-defense forces in eastern Ukraine announced they would withdraw heavy weapons from the frontline following Saturday’s exchange of 191 prisoners. The process is set to be completed by March 7 under the terms of the truce.
OSCE monitors are now waiting for the documented evidence of the pullout, such as inventory lists, routes, and locations of the weapons.
The deputy commander of the Donetsk Defense Ministry, Eduard Basurin, said that the self-defense forces in Donetsk and Lugansk will begin the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the frontline in eastern Ukraine on February 24. He also confirmed that more than 30 pieces of heavy artillery have already been pulled out as of Monday.
On February 12, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany approved the long awaited peace deal in Minsk. The agreement introduced measures such as a ceasefire – which commenced February 15 – a pullout of heavy weapons, and constitutional reform in Ukraine by the end of the year.
READ MORE: Ukrainian President ratifies joint 4,500-strong military unit with Poland and Lithuania
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has signed a law ratifying the creation of a joint military unit with Poland and Lithuania. The unit is set to carry out tasks which have been given a UN Security Council mandate.
Earlier, Moscow criticized Kiev's plan to invite an EU police force under the bloc's aegis for a peacekeeping mission in war-torn eastern Ukraine, saying the move would undermine the Minsk ceasefire agreement.
Shreeman - I think the right spelling surely should be FakAp instead?Shreeman wrote:^^^ YK,
There are no excuses for sanctions if they dont arm urkraine.
Europe is looking at its exposure in Libya and Syria and aching. Even Poodlistan realizes its exposure in middle east. So only US has the ukraine thing in its sights.
And even the US is distracted with upcoming Spring in apfak (not misspelled), Iraq (mosul etc), Yemen (again, more important to US as it portends bad things for bahrain if shia do manage to take Yemen).
Porky has a problem in the Spring. His luck will run out sooner or later.
They sure do know how to fan the wildfireGloating. The leader of the rebel regime in Donetsk, Zakharchenko, boasted about the defeat of the Ukrainian forces. .
"In fact, Poroshenko (the Ukrainian President) is our ally. The amount of military equipment that he left for us in the Debal'tseve pocket is already incomparable to that of the Ilovaysk pocket (sic). In the last 24 hours of fighting alone, 33 tanks were destroyed or seized."
"Over the five days of fighting in the Debal'tseve pocket, we got our hands on about 170 tanks. Most of them are operational or can be made operational -- about 50 gun barrels; and we have not even counted mortars. We are still filling railway cars with ammunition to take it away. Therefore, our main ally is the president of Ukraine and the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
Zakharchenko also said rebels captured US-made radio jamming equipment, counter-battery radars, some rifles and artillery ammunition and some items that his soldiers could not "figure out." He said "slightly more than 30" rebel fighters were killed in the operation to seize Debal'tseve.
Comment: An examination of the Ukrainian military behavior and official statements indicates that the Ukrainian army is spent for now. If that conclusion is accurate, the rebels might be able to seize more territory with little resistance. That is the potential significance of the fighting at Shyrokyne.
This is the outcome most of us want to see, but how realistic is it? So far it doesn't look like any countries are lining up to join a BRICS alternative global economic and financial system that rejects U.S. rules. Only a handful of countries have moved away from trading in dollars. Are there any indications that a sizeable chunk of the world economy is willing to move away from the US dollar-denominated system? I haven't seen any but maybe I haven't been looking hard enough.habal wrote:only in short term. In long term they can do a Soviet. Which is to set up parallel monetary system and international funds transfer network. Who is the loser then, if half the world distances itself from US $ via this network. If USA loses the ability to launch wars at its choosing, it will sooner or later collapse as world reserve currency. Which it maintains through defacto blackmail. Once it loses its ability to be a world reserve currency, it loses the ability to create debt and fund it military machine. The entire ethos of USA is dependent upon creation of disproportionate debt and thus attracting the best talent with illusions of endless bounty.Y. Kanan wrote:they can do plenty of damage to Russia just with increasingly harsh sanctions and economic isolation; arming Ukraine isn't even necessary.