sanman wrote: ↑10 Jul 2024 17:26
But Russia factor changes that, because we can also have option of going for Russian technology too.
Indeed. But with the war in Ukraine, I am not sure how eager the IAF (or the other services) is to jump back into Russia. But in a pinch, that might be the only recourse left. The latest development --->
viewtopic.php?p=2624638#p2624638
There were rumours of izd-30 offer to India during Modi's visit to Russia. Not sure if such an offer was made, because no such announcement has been made publicly. If Indo-French relations do go south, this could end up for the IAF like the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 acquisitions of the 1980s. Only this time, it will be Rafale + Su-57.
sanman wrote: ↑10 Jul 2024 17:26US thought it could scoop up India on the cheap,
without worrying about its past efforts to put us behind.
The main thing that derailed Indo-US relations are these NeoCons who hijacked US policy and diverted it ("Mission Accomplished") toward invading Iraq, Libya, and Syria.
Guess which country benefited most from that hijacking and tilt? Benefited at our expense. That last one Syria was quickly blocked by Putin, and that's why he became next target thru Ukraine war.
Saar, on BRF we were asked to forget all that. It was a New Dawn, New America, New India and all that nonsense. On BRF, bringing up the past invited accusations of BRFites being narrow minded and unable to see the *BIG* picture
The snake oil that was being sold was that an Indo-US military alliance would have brought significant and measurable military and industrial opportunities for India.
F-16 production line was going to address unemployment in India i.e. for every one job at TASL assembling F-16s, four other supporting jobs would have been created in India. Cutting edge technology in sensors, avionics and weaponry would come to India's military aviation industry. The line will set the ball rolling in *OTHER* sectors of India's economy. This line will also enable India to maintain the 4,000+ F-16s in service worldwide. The line was Make in India, which is different from Made in India. Thus Make in India, but for the World! This line is payment for engine technology from GE! The line would have opened the doors for other avenues of cutting-edge military cooperation.
All the above is from the snake oil that MUTUs were selling on BRF. I remember NRao vigorously leading that charge, supported by other MUTUs like sudeepj, Cosmo_R, YI Patel, chola, vina, KrishnaK, ldev, GeorgeWelch, etc. Complete and utter nonsense, especially with the ongoing slug fest between Russia and Ukraine.
When Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential election, he threw cold water on that carefully woven yarn via MAGA (Make America Great Again) and the meltdown on BRF was a sight to see. Now NRao only talks about poles. He has transformed into a Bharatiya now! But it is hard to shake off the itch to have India mimic and follow America. So the riots in France, the possible downward trend of Indo-French relations gives him hope that F-16 could finally come and India will finally walk into the light that *ONLY* America can provide.
At the first sign of trouble between India and France, India must not look at anymore Rafales. Why rely on the shaky French, when you can rely on the world's largest (and most unreliable) Military Industrial Complex in the US?
sanman wrote: ↑10 Jul 2024 17:26I don't know what cold water you're talking about. F-16 is older generation fighter first designed in 1970s. US wanted us to manufacture it cheaply to supply it to other allies and keep Russians out of their markets. We might as well have bought Israeli Lavi design instead.
I like Trump, for same reasons that Deep State hate him so much. We threw off Art370 while he looked the other way.
I don't know how long you have been at BRF, but there was a well known and active thread (in the archives now) on BRF called the Single Engine Fighter. Back in 2015/2016, the late Manohar Parrikar launched that contest, post the signing of the 36 Rafale deal. It was to bring a foreign fighter production line into India. Only two contenders participated ---> the JAS-39 Gripen and the F-16 Fighting Falcon.
All those "supposed" benefits that I mentioned above (wrt to F-16 production in India), came from that thread. It ran up to 136 pages! Here is the link --->
viewtopic.php?t=7261
Post the 123 Nuclear Agreement, there was strong optimism and hope among the MUTUs on BRF and elsewhere, that India has finally joined the American camp. The 123 nuclear agreement also closed the door on the 1998 sanctions that the Clinton administration imposed upon India post Pokharan '98. For the MUTUs, it was a chance for India to get access to cutting edge US military hardware. Alphabet agreements were being signed, US military hardware was being acquired (C-17s, P-8Is, C-130s, AH-64s, CH-47s, etc) and the crown jewel was going to be an American fighter.
Not too long after the 123 Nuclear Agreement was signed between India and the US, was the formal launch of the MMRCA contest by Air HQ. Every nation that built a fighter was offering their wares. In the US (and with the MUTUs), the contest was considered just a mere formality. It was widely expected that either Boeing (F-18) or Lockheed Martin (F-16) was going to win. That did not occur, as the technical downselect by Air HQ on 27 April 2011 eliminated both the US entrants in the MMRCA contest. The US Govt considered this a deep betrayal by India, as the US felt they had bent over backwards to accommodate India with the 123 Nuclear Agreement. This was echoed by the MUTUs on BRF.
The fact that the F-16 is a generation older did not matter to the US Govt or the MUTU. The relationship mattered more. As Ashley Tellis famously said, "India chose a plane, over a relationship." Not selecting an American fighter was like a knife in the back for them. They could not understand how the military in India (i.e. the IAF) can override the civilian Govt of the day. In the US, foreign military sales are an extension arm of US foreign policy. We sell you arms and you follow our lead. This is how the US led military alliances the world over. India proved to be a different cookie altogether.
Post 2011, there was a five year lull till the 2016 Single Engine fighter contest was launched. That gave the US Govt and the MUTU much hope. That went out the window, post the 2016 US presidential election and with Manohar Parrikar leaving the Defence Ministry for the post of CM of Goa. In place of the Single Engine contest, came the MRFA (Multi Role Fighter Aircraft) contest that still runs today. That hope was revived again in the MRCBF (Multi Role Carrier Based Fighter) contest, but then died again with the selection of the Rafale M over the F-18 Super Hornet.
Now Rafale is leading the MRFA contest, much to the chagrin of the MUTU. So the unrest in France and the criticism of Modi is a welcome news to them. When you understand the *BIG* picture, you will understand why NRao says no more Rafales. The MUTU mind is a strange mind.
