Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

[chetak]

Capability is the issue. Esp. Wrt China, esp. At sea. India might consider a China specific naval development às part of it's act East policy. Being China specific, mega orders to the US should work out well for both sides. Maybe a couple of CV ideally with f35 or even f18s, and b1b lease. Sea guardian in numbers. Done on friendship pricing and payment plans. After all, India's GDP growth projections should easily allow for this kind of expansion.
It is also a way to pay off foggy bottom types hell bent on "reforming"India. And reducing making into India's affairs. Buy more time until a more self reliant nation emerges.

What is a "China specific naval development"? You mean lease out some territory to US, like one of the Andamans?
Where does that put our ability to apply leverage on China? It also puts US in the driver's seat on our China policy.

Cain,

Instead of buying off the shelf equipment from the US. What India needs to do going forward is to leverage the capacity of the US and Western MIC.

One way we could do so, could be to release a development contract for India specific requirements to global vendors.

The vendor should enter into a JV with an Indian entity. Build a 50-50 JV.

Devlop the system for Indian requirements and then offer it to global South as well.

That will make the path to 100% self sufficiency easy.

US arms regulations don't allow just anything to be exported. Anything of a military nature needs approval from Washington.

these sort of wishful ideas pop up regularly.

If it were merely a matter of signing contracts and setting up JVs, they why did we struggle to build the LCA, the "indigenous" nuke sub, the home made carriers and what not

For instance, why have the russkis, or the frenchies, in all these years, not "JV"ed anything of consequence or significance with India (not talking of the the Indo Russian Rifles Private Limited Joint Venture between Advanced Weapons and Equipment India Ltd (erstwhile OFB) and Russia's Rosoboronexport, for the moment)


If wishes were horses........

[Pratyush]

Please try and understand what is being said before going all wishes and horses.

The US has not said that they will absolutely not develop any and all equipment with India.

Up until now India has been asking for items already in inventory of the US. Going forward,

Why is it a fantasy to ask for a joint development of a UAV for Indian maritime requirements. Or even porting the US sensors to the Tapas/ Rustum. ( Whatever it's called these days)

Development of future self propelled howitzer using the ERCA cannon.

Or Boeing developing an autonomous inflight refueling tanker using dry Kaveri engine. Meeting a potential Indian requirements in a JV with an Indian partner.

Or design a returnable cruise missile using the HTFE 25 as dreamed by Kalam.

The objective of the JV is to reduce the decades long r&d timelines of Indian projects.

All this might be a fantasy for those who think that Japanese detonated a nuclear bomb some place in world war 2.

But to me, the US has a need to accomodate Indian needs. US will be open to working with us on all the areas I have listed above. And more.

India has to decide how to take this matter forward.

[sanman]

Is Quad now going to be increasingly militarized, as a result of new Indo-US understanding?

If so, then what does this mean for AUKUS? And what about this new grouping involving Philippines?

I don't see how so many organizations are supposed to co-represent everybody at the same time, because then they make each other look redundant.

[Cain Marko]

Capability is the issue. Esp. Wrt China, esp. At sea. India might consider a China specific naval development às part of it's act East policy. Being China specific, mega orders to the US should work out well for both sides. Maybe a couple of CV ideally with f35 or even f18s, and b1b lease. Sea guardian in numbers. Done on friendship pricing and payment plans. After all, India's GDP growth projections should easily allow for this kind of expansion.
It is also a way to pay off foggy bottom types hell bent on "reforming"India. And reducing making into India's affairs. Buy more time until a more self reliant nation emerges.

What is a "China specific naval development"? You mean lease out some territory to US, like one of the Andamans?
Where does that put our ability to apply leverage on China? It also puts US in the driver's seat on our China policy.

Perish the thought! Where did I ever say India should lease it's land, anywhere? China specific naval capability improvements refer to addressing the huge gap between the two, which only threatens to get worse in the near future. India needs to have capability to do routine patrols in SCS. sending out a CBG along with bomber and MPAA patrols. The idea is to develop enough capability to harass China in it's own backyard, and not rely on hitting them merely at the choke points near the various straits. This means power projection...3 vik class carriers + 1 SuperCV acquired from the US on a friendship deal. Buy a boatload of f35 or even shornets if that's what it takes. Sea guardians. Maybe even SSNs. 10s of billions usd over a decade or so. This is what I mean by China centric, God knows we don't need that kind of firepower for managing Pakistan.

The SD already wants India to be a thorn in china's rump. Why not? If they want to push in mountains, why not prick them in their backyard a bit? Win over the massive USMIC with lovely treats subsidized by friendship deals, and the rest will follow...

Cain,

Instead of buying off the shelf equipment from the US. What India needs to do going forward is to leverage the capacity of the US and Western MIC.

One way we could do so, could be to release a development contract for India specific requirements to global vendors.

The vendor should enter into a JV with an Indian entity. Build a 50-50 JV.

Devlop the system for Indian requirements and then offer it to global South as well.

That will make the path to 100% self sufficiency easy.

US arms regulations don't allow just anything to be exported. Anything of a military nature needs approval from Washington.

whatever it takes to get there, but it needs to be done quick. I think Indian mic will become self sufficient in 10-20 years.. With or without US help. But these 10 years are crucial and capability gaps vs China are glaring. Time to change that by leveraging the most efficient mass producer of military hardware in the world, the usmic.
I've said this many times before, our strategic interests vs China match with the US, it's time to loosen the purse strings. Big ass G2G deals with US at friendship rates in exchange for non interference in Indian governance and fp, and yes, favorable press from the usual rascals for once. this assures a strong goi at the center and prevents the possibility of a China US G2. Yeah, we'll be a thorn in Chinas backside. With pleasure.

Hell I was even okay exploring boots on the ground in AFG. Just to get more presence in the larger neighborhood. The great super power of our times is waning or at least taking a breath, and leaving a bunch of gaps. If India wants to shape the new world, it needs to step up. If we don't, Turkey types will.

[ramana]

Writing is simple English without buzzwords helps clarify ideas..
Most people thought you were suggesting giving basing rights to USN.

[ramana]

BTW the entire Rafale flying from Hashimara, the Su-30s and the twin carriers cruise were all demonstration of India military capability.

[Cain Marko]

Writing is simple English without buzzwords helps clarify ideas..
Most people thought you were suggesting giving basing rights to USN.

Apologies. I'm not sure what buzzwords or jargon was used, but I hope my second post clarified what I meant.

[Cain Marko]

BTW the entire Rafale flying from Hashimara, the Su-30s and the twin carriers cruise were all demonstration of India military capability.

That's too defensive IMHO. There is a need to do khujli in Chinese waters. Checking the bottlenecks near the straits is not enough for the leader of the Global South.

[chetak]

This has particular relevance in this thread

X posted from the India US relations thread


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfZRdELm7j8


Why India will be a close friend but not an ally of US, as Modi goes to America : Ashley

Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Ashley J. Tellis tells Senior Consulting Editor Jyoti Malhotra that while India-US relations are on the rise, why India is unlikely to offer military support to the US military agendas or part ways with Russia and why US needs to understand India's strategic concerns better and seek a partnership.

and tellis's article in foreign affairs journal

America’s Bad Bet on India

[SSridhar]

From the India-US Joint Statement at the end of PM Modi's State Visit:

President Biden and Prime Minister Modi recommitted themselves to empowering the Quad as a partnership for global good. The two leaders welcomed the progress made at the Hiroshima Summit last month among the four maritime democracies to further advance a positive and constructive agenda for peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific. The leaders welcomed progress on the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, through which Quad partners are providing maritime domain data across the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific regions. The Quad to be hosted in India in 2024 would be another opportunity to continue the dialogue and consolidate cooperation.

[ramana]

This has particular relevance in this thread

X posted from the India US relations thread


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfZRdELm7j8


Why India will be a close friend but not an ally of US, as Modi goes to America : Ashley

Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Ashley J. Tellis tells Senior Consulting Editor Jyoti Malhotra that while India-US relations are on the rise, why India is unlikely to offer military support to the US military agendas or part ways with Russia and why US needs to understand India's strategic concerns better and seek a partnership.

and tellis's article in foreign affairs journal

America’s Bad Bet on India

Tata should ask for his replacement or appoint someone else to that chair.

[Pratyush]

I have watched his explanation of the perticular turn of phrase on both the print as well as the Carnegie you tube channel.

Will link that interview in a separate post.

He is not saying that USA should be angry or reduce the relationship with India.

His article is primarily for those people in the US administration who are new to the India assignment and are thinking that India will become an alliance partner with US.

He is telling them, that if you bet on on the above. Then that bet is wrong.

He has, in his interview also spoken about India's preference for furthering Indian interests. He has also spoken about the Indian preference to see a strong Russia. As a member of the emerging global order. Something that doesn't exist as yet.

[Pratyush]

Ashley Tellis and Lisa Curtis interview on the Carnegie Endowment you tube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/live/Kqm-gPl4OSk?feature=share

I have linked the URL of the program as the you tube tag is creating some issues because of live nature of the program.

I got the impression from both of them. That they are telling the US administration. Put up with India and it will be good for USA in the long term.

[SSridhar]

I got the same impression too.

[ramana]

Actually, they are late. The Biden WH is ahead of all the think tankers.
Most of these jokers don't understand Biden is in Foreign Policy since the 1976 election.
He has forgotten more than they know.
He was biding his time since 1992 and seized the opportunity when it presented itself and surprised Duplicity.
Evidence is the woke gang boycotting the Congress Address and Ombaba heckling from the sidelines in Greece on CNN like in the Muppet Show.

[ramana]

Here again, Tellis is erroneous.
The recent Wagner uprising against Putin's MoD which is a long time in coming* shows Russia is weak now.
So what is strong Russia?
A figment of imagination.

* Some Russian forces turning on their leaders was expected by thinkers due to: long war, casualties, and equipment losses.
This is characteristic of the Russian military. They are nationalists.
This won't happen in China as PLA is a CPC-armed wing.
They don't care for China. Only what the party Chairman wants.

[Rakesh]

'India Doesn't Want China...': Ex-Navy Chief Dares Beijing From Taiwan; QUAD Flaunts Firepower

[bala]

Raisina talk - Quad topic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rmoxi0M4tIw

[Rakesh]

India and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific: Possibilities, prospects and challenges
https://www.ussc.edu.au/india-and-colle ... challenges
12 June 2024

Dr Prakash Gopal explores the possibility of developing a collective deterrence and defence framework within the Quad to buttress Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

[Amber G.]

'Quad deeply entrenched in our foreign policy' says India's Dr S Jaishankar on Quad Foreign Ministers' meet in Tokyo.

Quad provided almost 400 million doses of COVID vaccines in the Indo-Pacific, says EAM Dr S Jaishankar at Tokyo presser. Full transcript:https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Stateme ... Press_Club

Quad Japan 2024 joint statement:
Issues discussed:
Free and Open Indo-Pacific
ASEAN
Pacific Islands
Maritime Security
Pakistan based terror groups
Technological Development
Cybersecurity
Disaster Response
Counter-Terrorism
Infrastructure Development
Health Security
Climate Change
Space Security
Ukraine Conflict
North Korea
Myanmar Crisis
Middle East Crisis
Red sea crisis
UN reforms
Link:https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-docume ... _Statement

[Amber G.]

Addressing the Quad Leaders' Summit.

Biden: after the Quad family photo with other leaders in response to a question on whether the Quad would survive beyond the election in November said, “Way beyond November. Way beyond November.”

[Amber G.]

Also: Cooperation in healthcare- a key Quad priority.
PM participated in the Quad Cancer Moonshot event today.

The four leaders committed to detection, prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in the Indo-Pacific region.

In keeping with India's vision of ONE WORLD, ONE HEALTH, PM announced the dedication of a grant of US $7.5 million to cancer testing, screening and diagnostics in the Indo-Pacific region.

[Amber G.]

Quad a force for good, more strategically aligned than ever: Joint statement

..he Wilmington Declaration, released after the fourth in-person Quad Summit, emphasised the group's commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, which is crucial for global security and prosperity. The declaration also strongly opposed any destabilising or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion, indirectly referring to China's territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea.
"As four leading maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific, we unequivocally stand for the maintenance of peace and stability across this dynamic region, as an indispensable element of global security and prosperity," it said
"We condemn recent illicit missile launches in the region that violate UN Security Council resolutions. We express serious concern over recent dangerous and aggressive actions in the maritime domain. We seek a region where no country dominates and no country is dominated-one where all countries are free from coercion, and can exercise their agency to determine their futures," the declaration added...<snip>

[Amber G.]

Fact Sheet: 2024 Quad Leaders’ Summit

[drnayar]

source : https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 547486.cms

[Vayutuvan]

Also: Cooperation in healthcare- a key Quad priority.
PM participated in the Quad Cancer Moonshot event today.

The four leaders committed to detection, prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in the Indo-Pacific region.

In keeping with India's vision of ONE WORLD, ONE HEALTH, PM announced the dedication of a grant of US $7.5 million to cancer testing, screening and diagnostics in the Indo-Pacific region.

https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death-treemap

33% Heart disease --- Mostly life style
18% all types of Cancer
14% communicable diseases --- Can be controlled by vaccines and cured by anti-viral and anitbiotics
7% Chronic respiratory diseases --- Life style (smoking) and pollution

Out of 72%, only 18% is wil be solved by thuis Cancer Moonshot (whatever that means). Moonshot was to reach moon before Soviets did. In the context of Cancer "Moonshot" is a non sequitur.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/pranabsamanta/status/1838419583142645957 ---> Summons on Pannun issue to NSA just before PM visit point to forces within US govt that have always sought to derail Indo-US partnership. Quad shows both sides have insulated it from progress in relevant spheres. My column #StateofPlay on how they have coped.

[ricky_v]

https://www.hudson.org/security-allianc ... d-john-lee

Pageantry versus principle. China delivers on the first and we offer the second. That is what senior politicians from the four Quad countries tell me.

The leaders of the US, Japan, India and Australia will meet in Delaware this weekend. In their own words, they will discuss how to advance an open and stable Free and Open Indo-Pacific in practical ways. For Quad countries, nations have equal rights regardless of differences in size or power. Competition and commerce will be fair and transparent. What’s not to like about these principles?

Earlier this month, China hosted 51 African heads of state for the Ninth Forum on China-Africa Co-operation in Beijing. Unlike the Quad meeting, Chinese summits with African, Southeast Asian and Pacific nations are elaborate and ostentatious affairs. The show is plainly designed to impress leaders of smaller nations and reinforce China’s place at the top of an emerging Sino-centric hierarchical order.

What about a Sino-centric hierarchy? Doesn’t this terrify smaller nations? It depends on what one gets out if it. We promise rules under which economies and firms jostle for advantage. The outcome is not certain but is based on merit, cunning and skill. China promises guaranteed material benefits regardless of merit, cunning and skill. All one must do is submit to and participate in the Sino-centric system.

If one is a political elite of an economy that has difficulty attracting foreign capital and skilled workers, China offers an immediate solution. A joint venture with a Chinese firm where one is receiving a minority share of benefits is better than receiving nothing at all. Such Chinese largesse can seem more attractive than relying on aid from the democracies with all the pesky conditions attached to the latter.

Indeed, the interests of many developing economies are diverging from our own. For example, the Quad countries correctly argue that Chinese intellectual property theft, subsidies and other advantages given to Chinese firms crowd out other international firms and drive them out of business. It happened with solar panels and is occurring with electric vehicles. Developing economies mostly do not care. Their firms are not sophisticated or well-equipped to compete in advanced sectors. They might as well benefit from buying from a flood of artificially cheap Chinese products.

[ricky_v]

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/its-t ... s-meeting/

The Quad is hobbled in its current configuration as a diplomatic partnership that deliberately eschews defence cooperation as part of its agenda. It’s time to test the waters with a meeting of Quad defence ministers.

While the navies of the four Quad members—Australia, India, Japan and the United States—hold regular joint training in a quadrilateral format through the annual Exercise Malabar, officially these drills are separate to the Quad. That is despite the fact that Malabar is described by participating countries much as they describe the Quad, as part of a ‘shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific’.

It is increasingly awkward, if not absurd, to insist, as Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade does, that the Quad ‘is a diplomatic, not security, partnership’ but at the same time focuses on maritime security, cyber security and health security.

Some analysts maintain that the Quad’s quiescence stems from India’s ‘differing world view’ and limited strategic appetite. This assumption should be tested. The headquarters of India’s defence staff said on 9 October that the latest Exercise Malabar was an example of ‘interoperability between navies of Quad nations’. So much for Indian reticence about describing Malabar as a Quad activity.

Japan’s political willingness to explore defence cooperation through the Quad is also worth re-examining in light of former defence minister Ishiba Shigeru’s rise to the prime ministership and his reported interest in strengthening Asia’s multilateral defence structures. While an Asian NATO might be out of sight, a Quad that does defence is perfectly realisable.

The other argument commonly heard for keeping defence out of the Quad is that Southeast Asian countries are presumed to be neuralgically opposed to any expansion of its activities into the military realm. This may apply to the more cautiously non-aligned members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), but certainly not all of them. Again, this is an assumption that deserves to be tested. And deference to ASEAN’s widely assumed skittishness about the Quad is not a sufficiently weighty reason to prevent the members from legitimately discussing defence issues with each other. This is especially so at a time when the deteriorating strategic situation in the Indo-Pacific demands closer collaboration among likeminded countries with meaningful defence capabilities.

One suggestion for testing the waters for defence cooperation within the Quad is for the defence ministers to meet on the sidelines of a regional security summit. The ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus), to be held in Laos in late November 2024, presents a timely opportunity. The ADMM-Plus agenda should be conducive, since it is restricted to non-warlike activities, such as maritime security and military medicine. It can provide an uncontroversial foundation that Quad defence cooperation could build on while staying within the diplomatic edifice of providing public goods for the Indo-Pacific region.

[chetak]

Also: Cooperation in healthcare- a key Quad priority.
PM participated in the Quad Cancer Moonshot event today.

The four leaders committed to detection, prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in the Indo-Pacific region.

In keeping with India's vision of ONE WORLD, ONE HEALTH, PM announced the dedication of a grant of US $7.5 million to cancer testing, screening and diagnostics in the Indo-Pacific region.

https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death-treemap

33% Heart disease --- Mostly life style
18% all types of Cancer
14% communicable diseases --- Can be controlled by vaccines and cured by anti-viral and anitbiotics
7% Chronic respiratory diseases --- Life style (smoking) and pollution

Out of 72%, only 18% is wil be solved by thuis Cancer Moonshot (whatever that means). Moonshot was to reach moon before Soviets did. In the context of Cancer "Moonshot" is a non sequitur.

Vayutuvan ji,


something is very off here. The very concept is lacking in credibility and practicality


one does not need to prance about on gun boats and expensive naval men-of-war to cure cancer or eat idly dosa/aloo paratha or whatever BS they are peddling on a particular day


every one in the QUAD seems to have a hidden agenda and India is the only one that the other three actually need in her military manifestation or avatar but India will not commit, militarily speaking.

So when the cheen attack or whatever, will the QUAD politely offer the cheen sailors and soldiers door to door cervical cancer treatment or what ...

or will they reassure others in the "Indo Pacific" region by offering them "door to door" cervical cancer treatment while the cheen are rampaging their way through the region

so who is fooling whom, and should we continue to burn expensive fuel to persist with this farce

AUKUS was formed to put some teeth and muscle into the namby pamby QUAD, minus the asians and and the amrikis now see the QUAD as another major friction point between them and India

[KL Dubey]

Also: Cooperation in healthcare- a key Quad priority.
PM participated in the Quad Cancer Moonshot event today.

The four leaders committed to detection, prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in the Indo-Pacific region.

In keeping with India's vision of ONE WORLD, ONE HEALTH, PM announced the dedication of a grant of US $7.5 million to cancer testing, screening and diagnostics in the Indo-Pacific region.

I agree this is useful. A relatively small investment can bring together organizations (who would otherwise not have been able to join forces) to have a large impact on the problem, even if it may not solve "everything".

For forum understanding: "moonshot" is now a general term used for an ambitious goal. The US government also has coined "earthshots" and a couple of other "shots" regarding climate mitigation and energy transition R&D.

[S_Madhukar]

Cancer cases are increasing in India. I was laughed at by a senior doctor when I asked if we could see an Immunologist when my mother had a scare. I was told - Immunology isn’t much of a thing here… Lost a couple of my aunts to breast cancer and in small towns that is a death sentence… Hope we can find our own cures !

[sanjaykumar]

I am not sure what an immunologist as such could offer. Current cancer care may utilise immune derived modalities certainly.


But to be laughed at is disgraceful. The culture of medicine needs to change in India. There are many repressive practices from an extreme paternalism to kickbacks for prescribing that are odious.

[Cyrano]

Paternalism happens in Europe as well Saar, especially in socialised health care.

[sanjaykumar]

I am well acquainted with socialised medical care. I have also seen patients walking around on festering diabetic foot infections in the American free enterprise model.


Perhaps I do not consider Europeans to be the last word in human civilisation.