Telangana Monitor

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Dasari
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Dasari »

Muppalla wrote:
It is like this - TDP did not revive even in Andhra region. TDP, Jagan and TSR will split the 296 seats. How will the government of AP form? This is where the forced consensus will be forced to split the state to break the deadlock. Everyone thinks of being only relevant and not some lofty ideas. They will finally say goli maar and then the center with INC and BJP will pass off the stuff to form 29th state of India. For those who hope against hope and think that TRS will not do as good as expected, I don't know this time. :)
Let us just stay on this forced assembly resolution.

We all agree that the majority of 194 seats (A + R + H) will be split between TDP and Jagan.

Let us say TRS won all their 100 seats and the remaining 194 are split between TDP and Jagan .

Therefore follow this code (please don't do syntax check on this. I didn't do any programming in the last 10 years. Infact you need special compiler to compile this (:- ).

if TDP-A (seats won by TDP in andhra) < Jagan-A
then
{
TDP cannot have a deal with TRS as this is basically equal to giving power to Jagan in Andhra.;
Knowing that TDP + TRS cannot happen, Jagan is no rush.;
Jagan can have a deal with TRS but it will be on Jagan's terms. So that means compensation , guarantees etc to A + R to have face saving for Jagan for future elections;
}

else

{
Jagan cannot have deal with TRS as this is basically equal to giving power to TDP in andhra;
Knowing that Jagan + TRS cannot happen, TDP is no rush;
TDP can have a deal with TRS but it will be on TDP's terms. So that means compensation, guarantees etc to A+R to have face saving for TDP for future elections;

}

Basically the forced assembly resolution requires compromise, compensation and guarantees.

If so, why can't they do it now and why wait for next elections. In fact this is how the deadlock will be resolved before 2014 and the T state will be formed.
RamaY
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by RamaY »

Dasari garu, poneelendi. Nothing wrong if he loves his state that much.

Added later:

Do you really think INC has no hope in Seemandhra region and And telangana region.

I doubt TRS can win more than 50-60 seats.
ramana
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ramana »

Lot of shenanigans going on. RNIs are in full form.

Small States

Scribd report.
SandeepA
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by SandeepA »

There is a problem in comparing the Telangana demand with demands for other smaller states like Vidarbha or Gorkhaland. The later might actually separate smoothly someday like Jharkand or Chattisgarh but Telangana is always going to be more complicated. Here we have for the first time a region demanding separation while having the most developed city of the state within its boundaries. Also the city we are talking about is unlike Patna or Bhopal. Hyderabad is a dynamic IT hub, the 5th largest city in the country and growing. AP citizenry was encouraged to move to Hyd with incentives and job opportunities for the past 50yrs (this being the state capital) and now all of a sudden a selective section of them are branded as 'settlers' and 'robbers' all in the name of separation. The price to pay in the evantuality of a separation will be too great that even compensating with a brand new state capital will be inadequate.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Hari Seldon »

undeetv is reporting 24 MLs sitting with Jagan on fast. 24 MLAs might even mean tremors for state gubmint in hyderabad.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Muppalla »

Hari Seldon wrote:undeetv is reporting 24 MLs sitting with Jagan on fast. 24 MLAs might even mean tremors for state gubmint in hyderabad.
In spite of INC's crocodile tears, I beleive there is a tacit understanding between Jagan and INC. For Jagan everything is to be relevant and for INC it is all about Lok Sabha elections. They may go for a Assembly elections in the next six months to create a stalemate kind of result. This is the classic result that Laloo was forced to seperate JHK. I suspect something a plan like that.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by SwamyG »

RamaY wrote:SwamyG garu,

I was pushing the envelope with that Madurai comment. Don't take it seriously.
Honestly, I do not care much if TN gets split for reasons that at least we agreed earlier. Even if it dilutes the tamil identity so be it. Nothing is permanent. kya kare. One thing I am always opposed is politicians or political party machinations for just electoral gains. I would not mind them proposing a plan if they have genuine concern for the development of region for the benefit of people.

I reiterate, I am for united AP, and split only if absolutely necessary based on administrative and other reasons we talked about. And I support reasonably sized states(because of our population size) on principle.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by SwamyG »

RamaY wrote:Dasari garu, poneelendi. Nothing wrong if he loves his state that much.
Wasn't that uncalled for? Every time you take 2 steps forward in a discussion, you write something and go back few steps.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by RamaY »

^ Don't worry SwamyG garu, I am not in a beauty contest here. I wouldn't mind if you don't like my views.

Would you have responded the way you did if I said say Varanasi instead of Madurai? We all maintain certain things very dear to us. Some of those things are our nation, region, language and so on.
ShyamSP
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ShyamSP »

SwamyG wrote:
RamaY wrote:Dasari garu, poneelendi. Nothing wrong if he loves his state that much.
Wasn't that uncalled for? Every time you take 2 steps forward in a discussion, you write something and go back few steps.
Per Ramana's link below, RamaY's mention of Madurai is not out of place. Let's not sweat and add more posts on it whatever his intention may be.
ramana wrote:Small States
...
demands of creation of new states in different parts of India, such as Vidarbha in Maharashtra [1], Gorkhaland in West Bengal [2], Bundelkhand, Purvanchal and Harit Pradesh in Uttar Pradesh [3], Kutch in Gujarat [4] and South Tamil Nadu in Tamil Nadu [5] have come to the fore.
...
Last edited by ShyamSP on 11 Jan 2011 22:05, edited 1 time in total.
ShyamSP
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ShyamSP »

Muppalla wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:undeetv is reporting 24 MLs sitting with Jagan on fast. 24 MLAs might even mean tremors for state gubmint in hyderabad.
In spite of INC's crocodile tears, I beleive there is a tacit understanding between Jagan and INC. For Jagan everything is to be relevant and for INC it is all about Lok Sabha elections. They may go for a Assembly elections in the next six months to create a stalemate kind of result. This is the classic result that Laloo was forced to seperate JHK. I suspect something a plan like that.
Fakes and traps!

Government has been in "minority" and is still running. They don't fire them and these don't quit.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by SwamyG »

RamaY wrote:^ Don't worry SwamyG garu, I am not in a beauty contest here. I wouldn't mind if you don't like my views.

Would you have responded the way you did if I said say Varanasi instead of Madurai? We all maintain certain things very dear to us. Some of those things are our nation, region, language and so on.
Throwing in Madurai there? I have never heard about any separatism from Madurai folks, maybe I missed some news. What way did I write, huh? I have expressed similar thoughts even before you brought in Madurai. For crying out aloud, I do not object if TN is split. Yes, I agree we care about all things you write, one reason why I have been against an official link-language. And time and time again I have said here how this is sensitive and emotional issue for AP folks. I have never dismissed the human angle, probably I am the only one parroting it here. Rest all is maya.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by RamaY »

ShyamSP & Muppala garlu

I can't see a YSJ sweep in Andhra nor a TRS sweep in Telangana regions. This is what I think about the best/worst case scenarios for various parties

TRS - 50-60 out of 100 seats - But limited to Telangana
YSJ - 50-70 out of 194 seats - Mostly Rayalaseema and 20-30 in Andhra. Limited to Seemandhra
PRP - 5-15 out of 194 seats - Limited to Seemandhra
Others - 15-20 out of 294 seats (Includes LokSatta, MIM, BJP, Left parties and others)

TDP - 60-70 minimum irrespective of political situation
INC - 60-70 minimum irrespective of political situation

And possible coalitions are
1. YSJ gets Congress support
2. TRS+Congress
3. YSJ + TRS
4. TRS + TDP (very unlikely)

My best guess is coalition 3 so they can get a chance to build their fortunes and political bases.

But no coalition will last its full term...
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by joshvajohn »

Political Quicksand
For 55 years, Telangana has remained a dream. Will it be realised?
http://www.businessworld.in/bw/2011_01_ ... ksand.html
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by RamaY »

^
The dream can be realized if T-vadis stop "dochukunnaru" type arguments and sincerely work towards that region's growth in the current setup for sometime. And then make a factual and logical demand for a separate state.

If and when they do it, it wouldn't be in the current Telangana form definitely.


Added Later:
We are yet to see a convincing argument for the creation of Telangana state. What I heard so far is
- This is a old demand; of course few people wanted to be a separate state but the majority voted for Merging into United Andhra in 1953
- We want it. Don't ask why
- TRS won 22 MLAs out of 109 MLA seats and 2 MPs out of 14 MP seats; so give us Telangana
- The OU students burned few buses; so give us Telangana.
Yagnasri
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Yagnasri »

RamaY Sir,

In 2009 elections TRS won 10 out of some 50 contested MLA seats and 2 MP seats out of how many contested I don't know. During that election it is part of a grand group with TDP, CPM & CPI. Congress under YSR won majority seats in both Telangana and rest of AP without agreeing for division on record ( they simply kept it open) But YSR actually canvossed against division in 2009 and won handsomely in rest of the AP where TDP which joined TRS got kick out.

Latest news is since yesterday is -Madhu Yashki (MP Congress - Strong supporter of Naxals ) and Revant Reddy (MLA TDP) saying Sri Krishna Committee is sold to Anhdra people and they have taken bribes to write the report. We do not know what is the basis for this. TDP Telangana leaders all now following this arguments for two, three days. Congress people of Telangana have not fully joined because the committee is appointed by their own gvernament only. Some of them like this Yashki fellow already started. Others will follow soon. So only honest people around seems to be Telangana politicos.

As you said this kind of Dochukunnaru agruments like the one above are the main problem here.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by RamaY »

^ NRao garu,

We have been seeing MadhuYashki type statements for a long time. Everyone know MY's background and how he entered into politics. I wonder why he joined INC and paid for his MP seat where as TRS already existed when he RTI. That shows his interest in Telangana cause. He is just covering his bottom.

His financial interests are with INC. He runs a logistics center in hyderabad per my sources.

It is a joke that people say all parties agreed for t-state that is why TRS lost 80% of the seats they contested. That shows that party's strength.

If INC can manage the loss of couple of dozen MLAs to YSJ by aligning with PRP and MIM etc; then INC can guard UPAII even if all of 12 INC MPs resign in Telangana. That is what the PoliticsParty guy is saying, IMO.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Yagnasri »

What will Telangana MP's can do after resigning ? Join TRS? I dont know. Ultimately they need Congress support to get the state. Antaganizing Congress to this level is bad move now.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ShyamSP »

RamaY wrote:ShyamSP & Muppala garlu

I can't see a YSJ sweep in Andhra nor a TRS sweep in Telangana regions. This is what I think about the best/worst case scenarios for various parties

TRS - 50-60 out of 100 seats - But limited to Telangana
YSJ - 50-70 out of 194 seats - Mostly Rayalaseema and 20-30 in Andhra. Limited to Seemandhra
PRP - 5-15 out of 194 seats - Limited to Seemandhra
Others - 15-20 out of 294 seats (Includes LokSatta, MIM, BJP, Left parties and others)

TDP - 60-70 minimum irrespective of political situation
INC - 60-70 minimum irrespective of political situation

And possible coalitions are
1. YSJ gets Congress support
2. TRS+Congress
3. YSJ + TRS
4. TRS + TDP (very unlikely)

My best guess is coalition 3 so they can get a chance to build their fortunes and political bases.

But no coalition will last its full term...
Only whatif scenarios can be done as any fixed analysis doesn't throw any understanding.

Scenario 1:
========
INC/Jagan operation is unsuccessful. They were expecting they can pull non-Congress voters but there is indication in non-T areas all they got was split in Congress vote between INC and Jagan. Any Jagan strength means TDP sweep in non-T areas. Split of Congress votes in noncore-T areas also is favorable to TDP.

Without Congress advantage, T looks pipe-dream. The more they prolong, TRS will lose charm so by election times it is more TRS/BJP in core-T areas and TDP in noncore-T areas.

Scenario 2: Paying to Pied Piper
========================
Jagan will be accommodated. Giving T with Hyderabad is possible in this scenario if Jagan is given total Congress control of T and non-T areas. Well, you get your T but not under your own destiny. Nee Bhanchen Dora!

Scenario 3:
=========
Utter Chaos! :evil:

Scenario 4:
=========
Blah! Yawn! 8)
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by vera_k »

Muppalla wrote:In spite of INC's crocodile tears, I beleive there is a tacit understanding between Jagan and INC. For Jagan everything is to be relevant and for INC it is all about Lok Sabha elections. They may go for a Assembly elections in the next six months to create a stalemate kind of result.
Situation looks analogous to Sharad Pawar and Congress in Maharashtra. Although, Jagan being a fledgling means that odds are not good for his long term survival independent of Congress. Pawar was able to break away significant chunk of Congress to become CM, but Jagan has been unable to do that.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Yagnasri »

Any decision T by Congress will be turning point for Jagan also. If INC favours division then it will lose the state governament and all the congress leaders in non T areas will jump to Jagan out of sheer fear of losing election. In T areas TRS will get all the credit and Congress will have live under shadow of TRS and KCR.

If T is not given, then Congress will retain an huge areas wherein Jagan influence is suspect and where many old worthless leaders of Telangana shouting Jai Sonia daily will be retained in AP state and through them Jagan can be attacked and may be even contained. The problem with the second condition is non of the T side old leaders can not even walk properly let alone contest and win elections. TRS will see to that INC MLA's MP's are put to lot of presure. Further Jagan's support in T areas is only suspect. We dont know what will happen if he really try to win over congress leaders in T areas what will happen. let us agree that Jagan represent a powerful criminal political unit with lot lot and lot financial power. He is young and trying to inherit his fathers legacy. His father untimely death and the treatment INC given to YSR family has created a simpathy for him. At the same time utter failure of INC to provide effective administration and creation of all the T related trobles which were kept fully unter control by YSR gave impression that YSR is a very great leader and under him state was doing well. The so called welfare measures of YSR also created a vote bank for him. So all these combination is contribiting to present power of Jagan

All INC and TDp need is time. the have to kool the tempers and run the state for two, three years and the problems of T and Jagan both may vanish. INC may not win next elections in 2014 but then Jagan also may not be a force at till then. So best bet for INC is drag, play for time, delay T decision, and more importently give reasonablly good governament. I think TDP will not create much problems and wait for the time is right for them which will also be 2014.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by vijayk »

http://news.outlookindia.com/item.aspx?708324
Prez Rule Speculations: CM, Chiranjeevi Meet AP Guv
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy and Praja Rajyam Party chief K Chiranjeevi today met Governor E S L Narasimhan separately, amidst the speculation that the state is heading for President's rule.

The Chief Minister met the Governor earlier in the day at the Raj Bhawan, where it is said that they discussed the latest political situation in the state during the 10-minute meeting.

The Chief Minister's Office, however, said it was just a 'courtesy call' by Reddy.

However, their meeting assumes significance as there was talk of imposition of President's rule in the state with about two dozen Congress MLAs openly supporting rebel leader Y S Jaganmohan Reddy. Besides, the turmoil over Telangana is also being cited as a reason for imposition of the central rule.
ramana
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ramana »

Muppalla garu, hats off for predicting P rule and subsequent elections. Lets see if CBN can get the majority and keep the state.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ShyamSP »

vijayk wrote:http://news.outlookindia.com/item.aspx?708324
Prez Rule Speculations: CM, Chiranjeevi Meet AP Guv
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy and Praja Rajyam Party chief K Chiranjeevi today met Governor E S L Narasimhan separately, amidst the speculation that the state is heading for President's rule.

The Chief Minister met the Governor earlier in the day at the Raj Bhawan, where it is said that they discussed the latest political situation in the state during the 10-minute meeting.

The Chief Minister's Office, however, said it was just a 'courtesy call' by Reddy.

However, their meeting assumes significance as there was talk of imposition of President's rule in the state with about two dozen Congress MLAs openly supporting rebel leader Y S Jaganmohan Reddy. Besides, the turmoil over Telangana is also being cited as a reason for imposition of the central rule.
Majority mark = 148
INC+PRP+MIM = 155+18+7 = 180
INC+PRP+MIM - Jagan/26 MLAs = 154

Governor can suspend assembly while government is in confidence under some pretext to revive later. This gives maneuverability whether to resume later or go for elections which can be extended to an year or more through this route.

Going for elections for INC will be terrible for an year and can have ripple effect to collapse in Center if it goes soon. It has to manage out AP without affecting itself at the Center.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by vijayk »

^^ Probably right. This could be a ploy by the ITALIAN mafia to scare CON MLAs who are attending the Jagan's dikshahs. They want to show them that they are not afraid to dissolve assembly. If they are really want to do it, they will secretly meet Chiru. This is public posture. The ITALIAN masters will receive a rude awakening in AP. They lost all the their core supporters to Jagan in Andhra as far as I know.

Chiru is too dumb and stupid to fall for such idiotic moves by Sonia and her clique. Have some some self-respect! Why do you run to her like a dog every time she calls? Then she tells you to sit on the side. You go and sit waiting for next call. Atleast, Jagan, crook of the crooks has some self respect.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Yagnasri »

The is why Jagan criminal gang at least have some respect where as Chiru has none. I think Suspention of assembly and president rule may be the next thing. Continueing with the grace of Jagan it will be serious lass of face.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ramana »

vijaykgaru, Also aren't PRP members elected from Rayalaseema vulnerable to join Jagan? PRP voteshare was to eat inot TDP and nothing else. What is their weight by itself in elections by themselves unless its four cornered contests?
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by vijayk »

They may be bought off by CON party with ministry promises.
Definitely PRP was designed to split opposition TDP votes. They succeeded. The main reason they want to take him is to ensure Chiru's caste support into CON fold for next election if President's rule imposed. I am sure 60% of PRP votes will not be transferable to CON party.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by vijayk »

http://www.gulte.com/index.php?andhra-p ... &link=7432
Why TDP is hesitating for no confidence motion?
These are the reasons for back footing on the no confidence motion against the congress government in state.

1. Though TDP is strong in Seemandhra, Hyderabad, South Telangana, it seems to be weak in north Telangana districts due to TRS aggressiveness and T-sentiment, TDP doesn't want to lose those seats, hence they are waiting for T-issue to be settled in next couple of months.

2. Jagan factor in Seemandhra.

3. TDP want to grow Jagan further to split congress votes significantly, hence largest beneficiary is TDP in Seemandhra, even Jagan garner some of the anti incumbency votes like PRP in last elections.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Muppalla »

ramana wrote:vijaykgaru, Also aren't PRP members elected from Rayalaseema vulnerable to join Jagan? PRP voteshare was to eat inot TDP and nothing else. What is their weight by itself in elections by themselves unless its four cornered contests?
That is the problem of Chiru. He cannot keep his flok except with ministires etc. Hence he is desperate to get into government.

TDP game plan is very simple. Play a very low key role and concentrate on people issues and not political manuvering. It is not scared to go to polls but if it gets into business of running the government now it will be asked to resolve the T issue. The guys who created will clean the mess and TDP will takover from there.

TDP did not lose anything - irrespective of Jagan's bravado he is not going to win. He may win in couple of districts but Congress will cut his votes and hence TDP will have the advantage.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ramana »

Isn't that the right thing to do in this emotional issue? Concentrate on people's issues and not in games.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Yagnasri »

Yes that is what CBN is doing. He is visiting one place after another on farmer's issues etc and as per the reports he is now feeling that public is ready to accept him as CM. TDP's game is relatively posive now when compared to INC which is seems to be still in dark. But with all 2G etc, inflation etc things at Delhi they may not have much time to think about AP till date. But it is now changing no there also.

With regard to Jagan, as I have said before let us not under estimate him. He is a serious threat to Congress. Chiru has not transferable vote and most of his MLA's will jump either to INC or Jagan even now. So any future elections will be a fought with TDP advantage over INC all over state.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ramana »

Soon after 2004 elections I had ridiculed CBN's empahsis on Hyd and neglecting the rural which led to his displacement. The image about him was he was callous about the farmer suicides and led to disenchantment.
I called that Naidunomics. I think he has learned the lesson and the state and country paid dearly for that.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ShyamSP »

Split in CPI on T-issue.

Controversy in Telangana CPI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu0_RgShe10
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by vijayk »

^^ me too. I had similar thoughts about his policies. In retrospect, he created a growth story which has qualitatively improved whole of AP including relaunched. If we look at SKC report, the growth rate of every area jumped significantly after hyderbad became a software power house. Is it all coincidental? The tricke down worked for jobs and real estate growth all over AP except for farmers. I think he recognized it too.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ramana »

Now the message has to be taken to people to get him back to provide real growth to the other districts.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by Yagnasri »

As per the Surya News Paper KCR and Vijaya Shathi (Film Actross) two MP's from TRS will find place in the Union Ministry in the next expansion which may take place next week. The present CM is going to be kick out and Telanaga area MLA Uttam Kumar Reddy will be made a CM that is 4th Krishan in the drama. With this there will be curtons to all this agitations for some time and we can discontinue this thread and do go to sleep. Problem solved.
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by vishnua »

ramana wrote:Soon after 2004 elections I had ridiculed CBN's empahsis on Hyd and neglecting the rural which led to his displacement. The image about him was he was callous about the farmer suicides and led to disenchantment.
I called that Naidunomics. I think he has learned the lesson and the state and country paid dearly for that.
This is right on the money. CBN I think got "carried away" by focusing only on HYD or atleast giving that impression.

Even people who stauch TDP supportes voted for cong's canditate in 2004 elections.

The idea for YSR padayatra originated NRI's in USA. It was modelled after NTR's yatra's.

2009 elections is different story.

PRP in 2009 was like Ralph Nader in 2000 + Money factor. Chiru had absolute clue less people advising him or he himslef is not up to the task.

We need NTR's "arrongance" and self belief now. May be someone will show up .

T is dead for atleast another few years unless someone again in 10 or 20 years loses their plum posting and decides to bring back T again.

1970's it was Chenna reddy ...2000's it was KCR.. who know who will be in 2020' s or 2030's

Hopefully by then T will be much more developed as compared to today...

btw, I am from interior T ( similar to Muppalla's back ground but more in T) have exposure to Seemandra and Rayalaseema as well..
ramana
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by ramana »

Vishnua, Looks like Brihaspatiji's 30 year cycle in Indian politica comes true. Only its part of his 90 year cycle.
In next 30 years T will be shasysamalam due to godavari lift irrigation and rururbanization and restore the grandeur of Ganapti deva!

BTW, during the 16 mahajanapda phase the land was called Asamaka. Core was current Karimnagar district!
vishnua
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Re: Telangana Monitor

Post by vishnua »

Absolutely.. The current generation of the T folks do not really care that is ppl under 40. Don't bring in OU students as they can be "used" for all sorts of agitations as long as the directives are coming from certain type of leaders ( read left/naxals)

But older generation still have fantasies about seprate T due to various facotrs.

Hint: The naxals are less active or not at all where there is strong presence of "settlers"

Madhu Yakshi purely won on T- facor in 2009 as he did not implement single development project as an MP from 2004 and 2009.

Hence you see his statement now. He wants to have his cake and eat it too... i..e keep supporting T-factor publicly but will still stay with Cong. Once TRS is "merged" with Cong he is golden...He is betting or has inside info.

Not many elected folks from T area can say this.
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