Bharat Rakshak

KLNMurthy wrote:Can some guru explain to me why BJP has given a walkover to Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli, both in 2014 and 2019?

In 2019, are people still in such a state that they will feel deep love for a leader who is seen to be caring for them and working for them, when honestly, all they are doing is fulfilling the minimum requirements of their job? It would seem so, from the article.

nachiket wrote:

Karan M wrote: @Sudeep, Nachiket,

Still shocked to see how the stereotypical elite is so disassociated with real India, that he couldn't handle speaking even a handful of sentences in local lingua franca. I mean, not just Hindi, you need to know whatever language is common, where you grew up at, could be whichever local language. And he couldn't handle Hindi, despte growing up in the north (I presume?).

I've come across a few of these jackasses during college days in Mumbai. Speaking in English during conversations when everyone else was speaking in Hindi. We used to make fun of their fake American accents and phrasing that sounded quite comical to everyone but themselves. Unfortunately, their numbers have only increased since my days.

ShyamSP wrote: Until Bharat gets rid of English you'll have jackasses raising, may be to billion level. Instead of developing knowledge in native language or Sanskrit, India is programming, rather corrupting, billion minds with foreign language. Those who want to escape to better lands can learn whatever language but those who are in Indian whole life it is Idiotic to impose learning and converse in foreign language. Bollywood name itself symptom of slavishness and it is also corrupted in double way...Urdu and English. Many movies produced from are Urdu-laden with names coming in English.

Maybe parivar takes over running Sabhas and administration in their Sanskritized Hindi, if not Sanskrit itself, language (may be if Tamil or language politicians have problem government can hire translators)

nachiket wrote: It goes way beyond language. If merely getting educated in English made us into jackasses, a lot of us on this forum would be part of that tribe. The problem is the culture among these people of looking down on everything Indian and a fascination for the goras and everything they do. Naturally when everything Indian is termed inferior, it includes the languages too and you end up with Prannoy Roy struggling to carry on a conversation. But that is only a symptom and not the disease itself.

Mort Walker wrote:

nachiket wrote: that includes cricket).

With the Lok Sabha election entering its final two weeks and 'judgment day' (May 23) approaching, the underground betting market has reached a state of ecstasy.
Political betting has grown so big that it has even dwarfed punting on the IPL, bookies told MAIL TODAY. Different estimates by them suggest that the size of the election betting market now stands at over a thousand crores, almost twice as big as it was in 2014. Since betting is unregulated and illegal, MAIL TODAY could not independently verify this figure.
The exponential growth of the 'satta' market has also been aided by mobile apps and websites, with many of them operating abroad - where betting is legalised. "It is a multi-million pound business. Bets change every day," said a person familiar with the international betting market, referring to a website operating from London which offers daily betting rates for the number of seats the BJP and the Congress will (or won't) win.
Even as rates change every day, the 'satta bazaar' predicts that the BJP will finish below the majority mark of 272, but will manage to form the government. The Congress, on the other hand, might not cross 100 seats, predict the punters.
"Betting rates are directly proportional to the possibility of seats that a party will get. The BJP getting less than 200 seats is a distant probability and hence a bet on this number will offer a premium," he said.

On Tuesday, the odds (where the money one gets is return varies) on BJP were 200/13/15.

This meant for every Re 1 placed on 200 seats for BJP, one would get `1.15. And if the BJP doesn't get 200, the return comes down to `1.13. Similarly for Congress, the odds were 60/22/27. So if Congress wins 60 seats, the person would get `1.27 in return. If it is less than 60 seats, the person will get `1.22 paisa. In many cases, the betting rates are decided by the party's vote share in the 2014 elections.

The betting market also factors in key issues such as unemployment, prices of commodities and fuel as also allegations and counter-allegations (depending on which ones stick and have the potential of impacting voters' choice).

In Delhi, the market predicts five to seven seats for the BJP. Bookies believe there is a tight triangular contest among the BJP, the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress, but the saffron party leads in at least five seats on the back of PM Narendra Modi's popularity.

"Though there is no Modi wave in the country, there is an undercurrent of urban voters by and large casting their votes for the BJP. Besides, the momentum has shifted after the Pulwama terror attack and nationalism comes on top of the minds of voters, especially the urban class," a Delhi-based bookie told Mail Today.

In the Chandni Chowk constituency, the sizeable population of Muslim voters is expected to vote for JP Agarwal, candidate of the Congress party. Hence, Agarwal is bookies' favourite here and the betting market offers lesser returns on him. In North East Delhi, there is a triangular fight between Sheila Dikshit of the Congress, Manoj Tiwari of the BJP and Dilip Pandey of the AAP.

The 'satta' market believes Dikshit has an edge over the other two. "There is a strong chance of the Purvanchali vote splitting between Tiwari and Pandey and it will help Dikshit clinch the seat," the bookie said.

The betting market has shown a lot of interest in East Delhi too, with cricketer Gautam Gambhir taking on AAP candidate Atishi and Congress' Arvinder Singh Lovely. Atishi, as of now, is a favourite among punters, with Gambhir a close second.

"The minimum betting amount is Rs 10,000. We have different mobile apps, websites and direct investment also possible. The bidding price fluctuates every day," a bookie said.

Payments are done through back-channels, sources said. For larger bets, running in lakhs or crores, the money goes to offshore accounts - to avoid detection by security agencies.

The most popular bets include those on Narendra Modi becoming PM, Rahul Gandhi winning both his seats (Amethi and Wayanad) and the performance of the SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh.

According to the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution, states have the rights to make laws and policies regarding "gambling and betting". Physical betting on sports (offline) is illegal across India.

Most of the betting on elections is done telephonically. Bookies are reached over a call, text message or WhatsApp, where they reveal the odds for a bet. Payments happen through backchannels and online transfers.

"If you know a bookie, you do not need to give an advance. If you come through a reference, you pay 50% in advance. Cash transactions happen in small bets, but the larger bets - running into several lakhs - involve offshore accounts too," said a bookie.

Police say they act as soon as they receive a tip-off. "As there is a possibility that a bookie may operate individually or as part of an organised international syndicate, we keep an eye on the activities of known bookies and Hawala traders," said Gurugram Deputy Commissioner Police (Crime) Rajiv Deshwal.

Madhur Verma, Deputy Commissioner of Police, New Delhi, told Mail Today, "The Delhi Police's crime branch, Special Cell and Intelligence wings closely monitor the activities of bookies, also called punters. They generally operate through apps. We appeal to the people to avoid getting into the net of such punters."

nachiket wrote:

ShyamSP wrote: Until Bharat gets rid of English you'll have jackasses raising, may be to billion level. Instead of developing knowledge in native language or Sanskrit, India is programming, rather corrupting, billion minds with foreign language. Those who want to escape to better lands can learn whatever language but those who are in Indian whole life it is Idiotic to impose learning and converse in foreign language. Bollywood name itself symptom of slavishness and it is also corrupted in double way...Urdu and English. Many movies produced from are Urdu-laden with names coming in English.

Maybe parivar takes over running Sabhas and administration in their Sanskritized Hindi, if not Sanskrit itself, language (may be if Tamil or language politicians have problem government can hire translators)

It goes way beyond language. If merely getting educated in English made us into jackasses, a lot of us on this forum would be part of that tribe. The problem is the culture among these people of looking down on everything Indian and a fascination for the goras and everything they do. Naturally when everything Indian is termed inferior, it includes the languages too and you end up with Prannoy Roy struggling to carry on a conversation. But that is only a symptom and not the disease itself.

ramana wrote:OK Slow day. Lets not make this a free for all.

Suraj wrote:...In such situations, voters don't angrily complain, as they might when something wasn't delivered as promised. Instead they go out and punish the namecallers at the ballot machine ...

ramana wrote:

Sumair wrote: Saurav Ganguly?!

If BJP gets more than 12 seats there will be exodus out of TMC on 24th May.
#Jihadidi has a choice go for polls or sit in Opposition.

Or governor's rule if she waffles or leads to violence

Can't have a border state with such people in charge.

Sumair, You think CM face is a cricketer?
What is his political experience?

Sumair wrote: Sir Captain India has the innate "it" factor to lead.

Manish_Sharma wrote:

Suraj wrote:...In such situations, voters don't angrily complain, as they might when something wasn't delivered as promised. Instead they go out and punish the namecallers at the ballot machine ...

Exactly this happened with "Maut Ka Saudagar" ,

Also certain expressions just don't gel with citizens... like from 2009 onwards BJP's ground input was that 'sonia foreigner italian ' doesn't go well with many so they dropped it.

Sonia also never dared any "maut la saudagar " type terms ever....

In Raul-Bianca's Yesmen type Maoist dictatorial set up no one will tell them what's happening on ground....

From 1952 to 1998, we had paper ballots. During this period more than 90% election verdicts were Pro-Incumbent. That means those in power remained in power.

After the introduction of #EVM in 1999 till now, almost 90% verdicts have been Anti-Incumbent.

Let that sink in.

Suraj wrote:

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Exactly this happened with "Maut Ka Saudagar" ,

Also certain expressions just don't gel with citizens... like from 2009 onwards BJP's ground input was that 'sonia foreigner italian ' doesn't go well with many so they dropped it.

Sonia also never dared any "maut la saudagar " type terms ever....

In Raul-Bianca's Yesmen type Maoist dictatorial set up no one will tell them what's happening on ground....

That was the case for MMS too . People understood he was just a seat warmer and the power lay elsewhere , but they did not take kindly to the epithets he and his position were called for it . The economy did well enough in the 5 years leading to that election (including the dole programs) that they got a good mandate then . However they were duly punished in 2014.
his ni
Constantly calling Modi chor is a high risk gambit . Either it has immediate resonance because people do doubt his sincerity, or they get very upset with the constant demonization of the person whom they believe does not deserve the crude language . RaGa is much too unsophisticated politically to avoid making such mistakes .

fanne wrote:2009 election we have bad analysis. Congress won (in spite of 26/11) because of many factors, most important being, NAREGA. Modi welfare scheme are 10 times bigger. Hope it does the trick for 2019

Sumair wrote:

Supratik wrote:In 5th phase TMC has done well in WB. Neck to neck between BJP and TMC. Last 2 phases will determine who will get larger no of seats but TMC has advantage. Even if BJP gets less seats it will be incredible given that the party had no base even a few years back. Will set up 2021 nicely. The hardest part will be to get a CM candidate.

Saurav Ganguly?!

Suraj wrote:More thoughts on RaGa's messaging:

1. "Chor"

I covered this already. It's a very simple message, meant to be repeated . Perfect for his capabilities.

Kati wrote:Gurus, what do you make of this?

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... yptr=yahoo

Most didn’t have particular attachments to traditional ideologies of the left or right (they offered no strong opinions when I asked about big or small government, foreign-investment policy, or the welfare state, for example)

....

"The rural rentiers profiting from their political connections on the basis of identity politics are rendered ineffective as information technology has built new channels between the State and citizens.

Across the Hindi heartland, be it in Etawah or Lucknow, Raebareli or Amethi, Allahabad or Varanasi, a substantial section of rural power-brokers thriving on patronage seems to be fighting for survival and is desperately trying to cling to identity politics. The Samajwadi Party-BSP coalition offers a ray of hope as both the parties are known for promoting and patronising elites on the basis of caste identity. The BJP's advocacy for Hindutva covers such a large spectrum of the society that it has a severe handicap in patronising such a group of power-brokers. As for the Congress, it is hardly a force to reckon with in Uttar Pradesh where it has lost its clout.

In this election, there is no doubt that this radical disruption of old social equations has ranged well-entrenched caste elites against the forces of transformation. Interestingly, the BJP despite its pro-Hindu proclivity, is seen as a harbinger of this transformation."

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/in-u ... 08391.html

Kati wrote:Gurus, what do you make of this?

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... yptr=yahoo

fanne wrote:I am not judging the merit of NAREGA. I am only pointing to its political impact. As you rightly pointed out it was a loot scheme. Dig a whole and then cover that hole. Many poor though got that free money (and through fake accounts many Con brokers got heavy amount)

vijayk wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... arebuttons


He will become CJI in 2022. He is the most dangerous BIF fellow. If Modi does not muster courage to get this guy out, he will destroy India

Narad wrote:

vijayk wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... arebuttons


He will become CJI in 2022. He is the most dangerous BIF fellow. If Modi does not muster courage to get this guy out, he will destroy India

Actually I have a different take on him. Before being promoted to SC, he was posted in Aurangabad bench of Mumbai HC and at District courts before that.

, he was the youngest person to be appointed as a SC judge.