Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

[manjgu]

is the current situation on LAC anyway connected to upcoming meeting of WHA/WHO where USA is pushing for taiwanese membership with India being chairman of the organisations???

[nam]

Sugarland will not attack unless it gets a 100% sure victory. Any thing less will mean a loss of face that will embolden its enemies, and there are plenty of enemies all over. They have much to lose if these enemies start working together. The question is can Sugarland repeat 1962 once again, get a quick win and retreat after declaring victory? Logic says no. But they are passionate gamblers.
Gautam

I would say the current Chinis are very risk aware, to major public action, especially the one where the outcome is not clear. In 62 they had nothing to loose with the nutcase at the healm.

I don't consider ramming in to fishing boats shows risk taking. So far they haven't taken any high profile steps. I expected them to be at Gwadar a long while back. They went in to horn of Africa, but not Gwadar.

They are very risk aware taking steps against countries, who can push back.The chinese want to rule, but don't want to loose the money.

The US is able to dominate due to the sheer will of it's technological capability & business acumen. The Chinese want to do it by selling heaters and headphones.

[manjgu]

what do the gurus think of reasons behind chini activity on the LAC??

[chola]

what do the gurus think of reasons behind chini activity on the LAC??

Are they building up troop levels? Their numbers on the Tibetan plateau is still pretty pathetic. About three brigades worth or 21000. If they start trouble without building up then it is most likely local and not centrally directed from Beijing because it would be stupid to start a war with such a big disadvantage in numbers.

We have three lakhs worth of jawans on northern border. Maybe we should use that to our advantage.

[Sravan]

is the current situation on LAC anyway connected to upcoming meeting of WHA/WHO where USA is pushing for taiwanese membership with India being chairman of the organisations???

I think there are two elements here: withdrawing support for one China policy.

We did this in two ways. India allows FDI from Taiwan but requires approval for Chinese investments. This means that India recognizes Taiwan as being separate from China. Additionally, we absolutely have to invite them to WHO. China voted against Indians interests repeatedly in UN. The first salvo has to be invitation to Taiwan to WHO.

[Vivek K]

With China raising Cashmere at the UN all the while brutalizing and killing ujghurs and Tibetans, why is India shy about inviting Taiwan to WHO? And China's proxy (for whom it raises Cashmere) Pakistan is leaving no crime behind in killing Balochs. KMs have far more freedom than Ujghurs or Tibetans or Balochs.

Only reason for hesitation can be military buildup is not complete. With forces preferring imports, this will never happen. To execute an independent foreign policy, India should borrow a leaf from China and produce everything locally in quantity. One day quality will catch up.

[Sravan]

With China raising Cashmere at the UN all the while brutalizing and killing ujghurs and Tibetans, why is India shy about inviting Taiwan to WHO? And China's proxy (for whom it raises Cashmere) Pakistan is leaving no crime behind in killing Balochs. KMs have far more freedom than Ujghurs or Tibetans or Balochs.

Only reason for hesitation can be military buildup is not complete. With forces preferring imports, this will never happen. To execute an independent foreign policy, India should borrow a leaf from China and produce everything locally in quantity. One day quality will catch up.

This is the wrong mindset. You will forever remain in decision paralysis mode. Firing the salvo, creates the scenario where policy making is forced to produce local. Kicking the can down the road doesn’t help you achieve local policy change. You have to create an environment where that is the only option.

[Vivek K]

So isn't re calibrating your foreign policy with national interests a way to create the environment is created? How would you create this environment?

The time has come now for a global reset for India. It has played by the rules and what has that got - not a seat on the UN though it is militarily and economically stronger than some of the powers from yester years. It is criticised daily for rapes and internet shutdown in Cashmere - no one talks facts. Rapes are not happening, terror attacks are killing innocent with open support from PuKistan and perhaps China. What is the fate of Hindus, Sikhs and Christians in Pukistan? Worse than death. Their daughters are kidnapped raped and if lucky converted to Islam and married off to a Sunni. China even monitors little children in school to make sure they are attentive in class. Ask Ujghurs about what is happening to them in China - you will need to shut your ears. And world's agencies are crying about CAA?

Defense has not worked to save Indian lives. The time is now to turn the narrative and go on the offensive. Let everyone know that every Indian live lost will be avenged 5 -10 times over. Make the costs unacceptable to the enemy. And for heaven's sake - please stop throwing money on expensive toys. When MKIs were bought, the airforce called them Air Dominance fighters. Faced with the AMRAAM, the airforce now wants the most expensive aircraft ever built while bargaining the price of LCA. Tomorrow an LRAAM or something will come in and the airforce will want to urgently purchase the F-35. To implement an offensive foreign policy - you will need to take risks. America's technological powerhouse wasn't built without taking risks or without the loss of lives. People pooh pooh Chinese jet engines. I applaud them for their courage. India lost so many aircraft and pilots flyin the Mig-21s - the Chinese lost a lot flying their own engine. I prefer the latter. Put the Kaveri on LCAs with reduced offensive capability and produce them in the 1000s. That will help you take the fight to the enemy and to protect your borders. Build 2500 Arjuns, Pukis will not dare look at Rajasthan. Arm Sukhois with 1000s of Astras and so on.

India needs a reset to change the narrative. Instead of taking a 1000 cuts, it should force a 1000 cuts on China and Pukistan. The Baloch need to be trained in India, we need to work out our way in Afghanistan, and Tibetans need to be supported. Instead of wasting money on farmers for elections, the PM should be looking at creating a powerful industrial base to rival China's.

[isubodh]

Additionally, we absolutely have to invite them to WHO. China voted against Indians interests repeatedly in UN. The first salvo has to be invitation to Taiwan to WHO.

Is it not possible that we do a deal with them that by certain date they give Go to our membership to NSG or else Tiawan gets invited.

[Vivek K]

They will never take India seriously till India takes the initiative. Give acceptance to Taiwan's induction into the WHO and take other moves. China has done a lot against India already - we have not paid them back in kind - merely broken a few bones and called ourselves as He-men.

[Sravan]

This is why I’m proposing a 5 year game plan to achieve the following objectives.

1) Annex and hold PoK
2) Annex and hold CoK
3) Liberate Taiwan
4) Liberate Tibet

We are waiting for permission to act, while we should be asking for forgiveness after acting.

[Sravan]

No one asked our permission for this. There is a game plan that Pakistan and China are playing. We need to change the rules of the playground by having a systematic unpredictable approach to achieving the objectives I highlighted above with our own definition of timelines, outcomes and strategies. That’s when the playground and narrative will shift in your favor.

[Vivek K]

India cannot allow this dam to be built. Even little Bangladesh could stop India erecting a fence.

1) Annex and hold PoK
2) Annex and hold CoK
3) Liberate Taiwan
4) Liberate Tibet

I think that India needs to move the LOC to the west so that IA has the advantage - repeat a Kargil on PA but with proper planning.

India always reacts to Chinese provocations - doklam, Sikkim. India needs to look and find its areas of advantage and surprise the Chinese with aggression in those areas.

In principle, India must work towards these items or else Indians need to stop complaining about small problems like NSG, UNSC permanent seat, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Influence in Bhutan and Nepal.

[dinesh_kimar]

Are they building up troop levels? Their numbers on the Tibetan plateau is still pretty pathetic. About three brigades worth or 21000..

Chola ji, this is a very simplistic assumption, that only 3 brigades with the Chinese.

No other analyst in the world uses these numbers, and a commonsense question to ask would be " Whether Chinese will defend their Border LAC with India with only 3 brigades?"

The open sources I have read reveal abt 2.5-3 lakh troops with India, and abt 2 lakh with PLA on the border. We have 10 mountain divisions plus few brigades here, while they have abt 6-7 divisions, but can surge to 30 divisions rapidly.

Wolfpack1 on twitter shows a Table with many army units, totalling 70k troops from one military district.

( They have restructured with 3 districts facing us).

We all know that light tanks have been inducted, better than the BMP-II we field, and we brought in T-72 and T-90 tanks.for greater firepower. They field an equivalent, which did well in the tank biathlon, remember?

They have much more indegenised equipment, good infrastructure like oxygen tents, high altitude railways, roads for heavy vehicles, local artillery.

Recent military open source literature, incl . Gen VK Singh's book suggest their infrastructure is superior , and we have an edge in numbers, not overwhelming superiority.

Ours is only blooming in the past few years, and to counter their intangibles, we tend to induct more manpower.

They have 3 brigades of SF troops facing us, I think our 21SF para is deployed in NE, but Manipur, not Arunachal.

Our MSC with 1 division, light arty guns (105 & 155) and Chinooks supposedly gives us some options for assault.

In reality, our manpower edge would be about 1.3 :1.

(Chinese have been running things well on LAC, with much local equipment, good infrastructure and railways.

A few years back when we were under UPA rule, the border situation was bleak, with 70% projects unfinished. I was wondering whether we could fool a Chinese construction team to make roads near the LAC, by using Chinese speaking / looking handlers and some deception.)

[chola]

Hain!

If they can support 6-7 divisions in that environment on a permanent basis then hats off to them. Most people from what I've read don't believe think they can.

https://www.belfercenter.org/publicatio ... sual-guide

In Tibet, the region closest to Indian border areas, the PLA presence is judged to number just 40,000 troops.

That 40K is not even all or even majority frontline PLA but PAP(smear) or People's Armed Police who spend their time shooting civilians not facing off against a professional Army like the IA.

[nam]

They have 3 brigades of SF troops facing us, I think our 21SF para is deployed in NE, but Manipur, not Arunachal.

That is 12 thousand special force troops? In Tibet?

Where are all these troops based? Why are so many spec ops troops in a relative peaceful location?

I am not sure your numbers are correct.

[dinesh_kimar]

^ I read it recently, on Twitter. I think from Wolfpack1 , again.

Dunno if only in Tibet, or spread over all 3 Military Districts.

They have 2-3 Airborne divisions, plenty of SF troops. Apparently trying to reduce vanilla troops and have more specialised units.

[chola]

^ I read it recently, on Twitter. I think from Wolfpack1 , again.

Dunno if only in Tibet, or spread over all 3 Military Districts.

They have 2-3 Airborne divisions, plenty of SF troops. Apparently trying to reduce vanilla troops and have more specialised units.

https://jamestown.org/program/snapshot- ... r-command/

The chini Western Command is a massive theater. Most of its troops are in places where they can breath and those are outside Tibet.

You can check how many front line units are in Tibet next to India. There are only three brigades shown here -- 2) 52nd, 53rd Mountain, 3) 54th Mechanized:

[Kati]

Holy Cow .....

$1.6T in century-old Chinese bonds offer Trump unique leverage against Beijing
Jonathan Garber
Fox BusinessMay 14, 2020, 9:41 AM CDT
Get all the latest news on coronavirus and more delivered daily to your inbox. Sign up here.

As the Trump administration seeks ways to penalize China for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, it need look no further than Tennessee.

The Lewisburg, Tennessee-based American Bondholder Foundation holds $1.6 trillion of century-old Chinese debt, including interest, dating to before the founding of the communist People’s Republic of China, that it wants the administration's help in redeeming. There is an estimated $6 trillion or more of the debt outstanding worldwide.

The bonds were issued by the Republic of China -- which ousted the imperial government in a coup -- as far back as 1912 and backed by gold; they were defaulted on in 1938. The ROC government fled to Taiwan, where it remains the official ruling body, after Mao Zedong’s communist party took over following the 1949 end of the revolution.

Beijing maintains Taiwan is part of China, and under international law, successor governments are responsible for the debts of their predecessors.

US CONSTITUTION GIVES CONGRESS POWER TO CURE ECONOMY FROM CORONAVIRUS SHUTDOWNS

President Trump is a “'promises made, promises kept' president, and he said to my face that he was going to do this transaction, do this deal, and hold China accountable,” Jonna Bianco, president and chairwoman of the American Bondholder Foundation, told FOX Business.

Bianco, who has power of attorney for 95 percent of the thousands of U.S. bondholders, said making China repay its debt would “not be punishment,” but rather a basic fundamental of international finance.

There's international precedent for such a move: Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher ordered Beijing in 1987 to make good on the bonds owned by Brits or lose access to the British capital markets. Then-Chinese President Li Xiannian’s government obliged, reaching a settlement of 23.5 million British pounds.

By paying some bondholders and not others, Beijing is technically in selective default, according to the ratings of bond-risk firms Moody’s, Standard & Poors and Fitch. Until China pays, it cannot sell debt on the international market, Bianco said.

The U.S. and China normalized relations in 1979, but cables dating as far back as May 1973 viewed by FOX Business show the State Department told Beijing that while the debt didn’t have to be paid at that time, it would not be forgiven.

There have been attempts to litigate pre-Communist party bonds in the past.

US ECONOMY TO SEE V-SHAPED RECOVERY: MORGAN STANLEY

A class-action lawsuit brought by Hukung railway bondholders was thrown out in 1979 under the Foreign Sovereign Immunity Act, which establishes limits on lawsuits against foreign governments.

Since then, developments in a few cases have suggested sovereign immunity might not be as strong with regard to certain types of debt, but those cases could be tied to specific language within the bond contracts themselves.

“It's a difficult suit to bring just because at this point, it's really very old,” Odette Lienau, associate dean and professor of law at Cornell University, told FOX Business. “Technically, these don't necessarily expire, but in practice, doing something like this is going to be difficult. You have to be legally creative with how you would do it.”

Bianco spent a year researching the issue and working with the White House, State Department, Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Trade Commission, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, former Congressman Bart Gordon and former Congressman Walter Jones when the American Bondholder Foundation was founded in August 2001.

While not widely accepted in international law, the doctrine of odious debt, which is akin to China’s argument, states national debt incurred by an illegitimate regime is not enforceable.

The U.S. made a similar argument when faced with the burden of Confederate obligations following the end of the Civil War. Congress in 1868 passed the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which says “neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States.”

TRUMP EYES CRACKDOWN OF NYSE-LISTED CHINESE COMPANIES

While there’s a “plausible legal argument” for redeeming the bonds, Lienau said, it’s “politically difficult.”Bianco, who met with Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about the matter in 2018 while the U.S. and China were negotiating a phase one trade deal, said the U.S. Treasury could take the bonds in and use them to offset the nation’s debt with China.

The U.S. might then say it considers the bonds paid, but China could still dispute that, bringing the two sides back to square one.

“Ultimately, this is going to have to be some kind of negotiated settlement if it gets taken up,” Lienau said. “If not, the U.S. just continues making the payments on the national debt.”

A spokesperson for the Treasury Department did not respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

The Foreign Bondholders Protective Council, established under former President Franklin Roosevelt in 1933, helps U.S. citizens collect on defaulted bonds from foreign governments and has settled 47 cases. If the group were to successfully resolve this case, it would be the 48th.

Bianco’s clients would be willing to take “pennies on the dollar,” she said, letting the rest go toward helping repay a national debt that has swelled to more than $25 trillion as policymakers have taken unprecedented action to shield the economy from fallout related to COVID-19.

The government has extended trillions of dollars of aid to combat record job losses and the sharpest contraction of the post-World War II era, caused by a virtual shutdown of the U.S. economy through stay-at-home orders intended to limit the virus' spread.

Both the Trump administration and some members of Congress have in recent weeks been looking at ways to punish Beijing for what they call an insufficient initial response to COVID-19, first identified in Wuhan, China, at the end of last year.

PLUNGING OIL PRICES, CORONAVIRUS FUEL ALASKA BUDGET CRISIS

FOX Business learned on Monday that the administration is forging ahead with plans to divest $4 billion of worth of equity stakes in Chinese companies held by the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board. But other options are limited.

“There is almost no clean-cut tool that you can use to put pressure on China without hurting ourselves,” Xiaobo Lu, political science professor at Barnard College of Columbia University, told FOX Business.

Earlier this month, Sens. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn. and Steve Daines, R-Mont., introduced the Stop China-Originated Viral Infectious Disease Act, which, if passed, would give Americans the right to sue China for the damage COVID-19 has caused to the economy and human life.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ON FOX BUSINESS

Another group of senators, led by Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., have introduced the COVID-19 Accountability Act, which would give Trump the authority to impose sanctions and travel bans, restrict loans to Chinese businesses by U.S. firms and ban Chinese companies from listing on U.S. stock exchanges.

Lu pushed back on the feasibility of those options, however, noting that the U.S. has “already done quite a bit” in terms of sanctions and that Chinese companies can list their shares in other international markets.

Fighting to collect payment on the aging Republic of China notes would have none of those drawbacks, though it might prove as arduous a struggle as negotiating a trade deal. Still, Bianco says, the U.S. would have the weight of common law and moral responsibility on its side.

“Americans pay their debts,” Bianco said. “China needs to do the same.”

[Sravan]

^ I read it recently, on Twitter. I think from Wolfpack1 , again.

Dunno if only in Tibet, or spread over all 3 Military Districts.

They have 2-3 Airborne divisions, plenty of SF troops. Apparently trying to reduce vanilla troops and have more specialised units.

https://jamestown.org/program/snapshot- ... r-command/

The chini Western Command is a massive theater. Most of its troops are in places where they can breath and those are outside Tibet.

You can check how many front line units are in Tibet next to India. There are only three brigades shown here -- 2) 52nd, 53rd Mountain, 3) 54th Mechanized:

So what are the mechanics of launching the annexation?

[chola]

https://jamestown.org/program/snapshot- ... r-command/

The chini Western Command is a massive theater. Most of its troops are in places where they can breath and those are outside Tibet.

You can check how many front line units are in Tibet next to India. There are only three brigades shown here -- 2) 52nd, 53rd Mountain, 3) 54th Mechanized:

So what are the mechanics of launching the annexation?

Them annexing us (poor odds of success) or us annexing them (good odds of success)?

[chola]

Holy Cow .....

$1.6T in century-old Chinese bonds offer Trump unique leverage against Beijing
Jonathan Garber
Fox BusinessMay 14, 2020, 9:41 AM CDT
Get all the latest news on coronavirus and more delivered daily to your inbox. Sign up here.

As the Trump administration seeks ways to penalize China for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, it need look no further than Tennessee.

The Lewisburg, Tennessee-based American Bondholder Foundation holds $1.6 trillion of century-old Chinese debt, including interest, dating to before the founding of the communist People’s Republic of China, that it wants the administration's help in redeeming. There is an estimated $6 trillion or more of the debt outstanding worldwide.

The bonds were issued by the Republic of China -- which ousted the imperial government in a coup -- as far back as 1912 and backed by gold; they were defaulted on in 1938. The ROC government fled to Taiwan, where it remains the official ruling body, after Mao Zedong’s communist party took over following the 1949 end of the revolution.

Beijing maintains Taiwan is part of China, and under international law, successor governments are responsible for the debts of their predecessors.

...

Fighting to collect payment on the aging Republic of China notes would have none of those drawbacks, though it might prove as arduous a struggle as negotiating a trade deal. Still, Bianco says, the U.S. would have the weight of common law and moral responsibility on its side.

“Americans pay their debts,” Bianco said. “China needs to do the same.”

Yes, but it might mean that the US must accept that Taiwan belongs to them since the (non-People's) Republic of China resides on Taiwan. I think they'll pay it (by converting from US Treasuries -- killing two birds with one stone) if it means full US recognition of the PRC's sovereignty over Taiwan since it is assuming its debt.

[Sravan]

So what are the mechanics of launching the annexation?

Them annexing us (poor odds of success) or us annexing them (good odds of success)?

Us annexing PoK, CoK + Liberate Tibet. IMHO, this has to be a single military operation achieving all three objectives. Also what are the mechanics for winning contracts and relocating workers to Kashmir. We should have housing co-located to major infrastructure projects with a security apparatus. What resources does Kashmir have that the rest of India can exploit?



Wargaming Taiwanese Invasion from Chinese perspective.

[chola]

Them annexing us (poor odds of success) or us annexing them (good odds of success)?

Us annexing PoK, CoK + Liberate Tibet. IMHO, this has to be a single military operation achieving all three objectives.

I think POK and COK plus Aksai Chin would be achievable in a single lightning operation with our current forces on the border. Needing to mass and buildup would signal too much to them. Liberating Tibet not advisable. The deeper IA needs to move into Tibet, the more desperate the environment they will forced to operate in. Also separating all of Tibet might create total war situation.

I purposed this during Doklam. It is 10 divisions of IA on northern frontier vs their 3 brigades. Maybe a few more now after Doklam but can be much more or IA intel would sound alarm. Still about two and half lakhs vs at most 40K. Brigades range from 4K to 7K (but more integrated firepower.) Fast movement of overwhelming forces in the disputed spots and then a few more plots for a buffer zone that could be easily defended. Then stop. This will not create a life or death situation for Cheen. And they might accept the situation if they are also rattled by the Amreeki allies on their East.

But during Doklam, we had a casus belli. It was an once in a lifetime chance for a historic victory, I thought. Anyhoo if we attack now, there is less justification in international opinion.

[Sravan]

Us annexing PoK, CoK + Liberate Tibet. IMHO, this has to be a single military operation achieving all three objectives.

I think POK and COK plus Aksai Chin would be achievable in a single lightning operation with our current forces on the border. Needing to mass and buildup would signal too much to them. Liberating Tibet not advisable. The deeper IA needs to move into Tibet, the more desperate the environment they will forced to operate in. Also separating all of Tibet might create total war situation.

I purposed this during Doklam. It is 10 divisions of IA on northern frontier vs their 3 brigades. Maybe a few more now after Doklam but can be much more or IA intel would sound alarm. Still about two and half lakhs vs at most 40K. Brigades range from 4K to 7K (but more integrated firepower.) Fast movement of overwhelming forces in the disputed spots and then a few more plots for a buffer zone that could be easily defended. Then stop. This will not create a life or death situation for Cheen. And they might accept the situation if they are also rattled by the Amreeki allies on their East.

But during Doklam, we had a casus belli. It was an once in a lifetime chance for a historic victory, I thought. Anyhoo if we attack now, there is less justification in international opinion.

Why do we care about international opinion? Achieve the objectives and ask for forgiveness with cease fire along with a new status quo. No one punished Pakistan for Kargil or other misadventures, we didn't gain anything by monitoring and abiding by international opinion. This "what will people say" mindset is a mental block that needs to be addressed first. Let's assume the worst case scenario where we achieve our objectives. What is the worst the international community will do to India. Can India make peace with that? If so, we shouldn't hold ourselves back. Our future generations will thank us for changing the status quo.

[Vivek K]

India is at War with Pakistan and China leaves the door open to join/attack at any time, anywhere. If India will not respond, it will remain marginalized and keep bleeding. India should look at moving the LOC with Pukistan westwards to a point where terrorists are not a problem and Indian citizens are secure. With China - if what you say is correct Chola, India needs to take the initiative and occupy areas where it has the advantage to tell China that two can play at a game.

However, to scare your enemy, you need a long stick. With their penchant for foreign equipment, Indian armed forces remain dependent on foreign supplies, and without spares or reserves for a long two front war. Some of the first things to run out will be 155 mm artillery shells and the corrupt babus will run around paying exorbitant prices.

It is time to take calculated risks - in strategy and defence production.

[Sravan]

India is at War with Pakistan and China leaves the door open to join/attack at any time, anywhere. If India will not respond, it will remain marginalized and keep bleeding. India should look at moving the LOC with Pukistan westwards to a point where terrorists are not a problem and Indian citizens are secure. With China - if what you say is correct Chola, India needs to take the initiative and occupy areas where it has the advantage to tell China that two can play at a game.

However, to scare your enemy, you need a long stick. With their penchant for foreign equipment, Indian armed forces remain dependent on foreign supplies, and without spares or reserves for a long two front war. Some of the first things to run out will be 155 mm artillery shells and the corrupt babus will run around paying exorbitant prices.

It is time to take calculated risks - in strategy and defence production.

4 questions we need to answer

What's the Cost China is willing to pay to defend CoK and Tibet? (what does it lose if it loses this territory... CoK doesn't gain China much except reducing buffer to India, TIbet would shake the CCP to the core, if you go after Tibet, they will be happy they get to keep Tibet and forget about CoK. which offers little to no nominal value to them, for us it secures our water supply) Once again the cost benefit analysis doesn't pass the sniff test for China to lose an arm and leg to defend this. We have more at stake.
- Manpower
- Military assets
- Economic assets

What the cost Pakistan is willing to pay to defend PoK? (they are literally begging to survive, what other metrics do we need to kick their ass?)
- Manpower
- Military assets
- Economic assets

What does Pakistan lose by losing PoK? (IMHO, they don't lose much except being a pain to India, for India we gain access to central asia)

So I disagree that Pakistan and China have the stomach for battle as much as India does. If India is dependent on foreign supplies, it should attack first (maybe it gets beat, maybe it doesn't). But we can only have the stomach and focus to go local if we go through that rite of passage. Pain instills change and evolution of strategic thought. Complacency or peaceful frameworks rarely kickstart the war economy. So far, no one has given me an legitimate irrefutable reason on why we shouldn't change the status quo.

[Sravan]

India is at War with Pakistan and China leaves the door open to join/attack at any time, anywhere. If India will not respond, it will remain marginalized and keep bleeding. India should look at moving the LOC with Pukistan westwards to a point where terrorists are not a problem and Indian citizens are secure. With China - if what you say is correct Chola, India needs to take the initiative and occupy areas where it has the advantage to tell China that two can play at a game.

However, to scare your enemy, you need a long stick. With their penchant for foreign equipment, Indian armed forces remain dependent on foreign supplies, and without spares or reserves for a long two front war. Some of the first things to run out will be 155 mm artillery shells and the corrupt babus will run around paying exorbitant prices.

It is time to take calculated risks - in strategy and defence production.

4 questions we need to answer

What's the Cost China is willing to pay to defend CoK and Tibet? (what does it lose if it loses this territory... CoK doesn't gain China much except reducing buffer to India, TIbet would shake the CCP to the core, if you go after Tibet, they will be happy they get to keep Tibet and forget about CoK. which offers little to no nominal value to them, for us it secures our water supply) Once again the cost benefit analysis doesn't pass the sniff test for China to lose an arm and leg to defend this. We have more at stake.
- Manpower
- Military assets
- Economic assets

What the cost Pakistan is willing to pay to defend PoK? (they are literally begging to survive, what other metrics do we need to kick their ass?)
- Manpower
- Military assets
- Economic assets

What does Pakistan lose by losing PoK? (IMHO, they don't lose much except being a pain to India, for India we gain access to central asia)

So I disagree that Pakistan and China have the stomach for battle as much as India does. If India is dependent on foreign supplies, it should attack first (maybe it gets beat, maybe it doesn't). But we can only have the stomach and focus to go local if we go through that rite of passage. Pain instills change and evolution of strategic thought. Complacency or peaceful frameworks rarely kickstart the war economy. So far, no one has given me an legitimate irrefutable reason on why we shouldn't change the status quo.

Look at how this anchor is taking on their narrative. It's an information campaign like this that is necessary to change the focus from Kashmir to Balochistan. In other words, offense is the best defense. Don't ask for permission and take the fight to them.

[Kati]

One more rat caught .......

U.S. accuses Chinese-born researcher at Cleveland Clinic of ties to Chinese spying
Mark Hosenball
ReutersMay 14, 2020, 3:00 PM CDT
By Mark Hosenball

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Chinese-born former employee of the Cleveland clinic was arrested on fraud charges related to $3.6 million in federal grants, the FBI said on Thursday, the latest move in a U.S. crackdown on alleged attempts by China to steal American scientific advances.

The FBI and other federal enforcement agencies searched the Shaker Heights, Ohio, home of Dr. Qing Wang, and arrested him on charges of false claims and wire fraud on Wednesday.

Prosecutors said Wang accepted grants from the National Institutes of Health without disclosing that he was serving at same time as dean of the College of Life Sciences and Technology at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology. That was a violation of the terms of the grants, they said.

They said Wang is a Chinese-born U.S. citizen specializing in genetics and cardiovascular disease who has been affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic since 1997.

"Dr. Wang deliberately failed to disclose his Chinese grants and foreign positions and even engaged in a pervasive pattern of fraud to avoid criminal culpability," said Eric Smith, head of the FBI's Cleveland office.

U.S. investigators say China and its citizens and operatives have long made extensive and aggressive efforts to steal unclassified American technology, ranging from military materiel to medical research, but U.S. agencies only launched a broad effort to stop alleged Chinese espionage in the United States in 2018.

The FBI alleged Wang was a participant in the Thousand Talents program, a scheme which U.S. officials say the Chinese government created to engage with individuals who had access to foreign technology or valuable data.

Investigators said that through Wang's participation in the Thousand Talents program, China provided $3 million in research support to enhance facilities and operations at the institutions he was affiliated with in China.

The Cleveland Clinic said that it had fired Wang after learning of his failure to disclose his ties to China.

"Cleveland Clinic has cooperated fully with the NIH and with federal law enforcement as they conducted their own investigations into these same subjects and will continue to do so," it said in a statement.

In one of several recent cases involving alleged Chinese efforts to steal U.S. technology, a Harvard biology professor in January was accused of lying to the Pentagon and NIH about his involvement in the program.

A lawyer representing Wang declined immediate comment.



(Reporting By Mark Hosenball; Editing by David Gregorio)

[Sravan]

it's happening. reduce the requirements and use local products.

[SSridhar]

Yes, but it might mean that the US must accept that Taiwan belongs to them since the (non-People's) Republic of China resides on Taiwan. I think they'll pay it (by converting from US Treasuries -- killing two birds with one stone) if it means full US recognition of the PRC's sovereignty over Taiwan since it is assuming its debt.

I don't think much would come out of this debt anyway. China is not going to be unduly concerned by it.

That being said, I don't think that the debt payment would amount to recognizing Taiwan as part of China. Already, the US does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, it maintains the one-China policy and has explicitly stated that Taiwan was a part of China. And, PRC will not be (if it ever comes to that) assuming Taiwan's debts, PRC will be assuming ownership of its own debts. The sovereign debts belong to China whether the Republicans ruled over it or the CPC rules over it now.

But, if the debt issue ends up in negotiations, that would be a tough one where China might not gain.

[nam]

They have 2-3 Airborne divisions, plenty of SF troops. Apparently trying to reduce vanilla troops and have more specialised units.

If they want they can fly in their airborne divisions. As soon as they land, they will start falling on to the ground... in hypoxia.

[Sravan]

MRCA canceled. 83 more Tejas ordered

[mappunni]

Arkansas Professor Is Accused of Hiding Chinese Funding

The case was the latest example of the Justice Department’s efforts to combat Chinese influence on American campuses.

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The Justice Department accused a professor in Arkansas on Monday of improperly accepting funds from the Chinese government and has accepted a guilty plea in a similar case, the latest examples of the department’s effort to combat China’s influence in American academia.

One of the professors, Simon Ang of the University of Arkansas, was arrested on Friday and charged on Monday with wire fraud. He worked for and received funding from Chinese companies and from the Thousand Talents program, which awards grants to scientists to encourage relationships with the Chinese government, and he warned an associate to keep his affiliation with the program quiet, court papers said.

He kept the financial arrangements secret, allowing him to secure other grants from American government agencies, including NASA, that the Chinese funding made him ineligible for, according to court documents.

The other professor, Dr. Xiao-Jiang Li, a former professor at Emory University in Atlanta, pleaded guilty on Friday to a felony charge of filing a false tax return that omitted about $500,000 that he received from the Thousand Talents program. He was sentenced to a year of probation and ordered to pay $35,089 in restitution.

The Justice Department’s efforts to limit Chinese influence at American universities are part of the Trump administration’s hard line on China. While Americans may think of academic interests as separate from business or the military, the Chinese government has used them all as levers in its quest for global influence.

“The Department of Justice remains vigilant over programs such as the Thousand Talents program that recruits professors and researchers to work for China,” John C. Demers, the head of the department’s national security division, said in a statement.

China has ramped up its use of such grants to recruit professors and researchers who have direct access to scientific information, and sometimes even security clearances, to work with Chinese scientists.

In response, the F.B.I. and the National Institutes of Health recently began to scour colleges and universities for academics who had become a de facto intelligence-gathering apparatus for China.

Earlier this year, the department charged Charles M. Lieber, the chair of Harvard’s chemistry department, with lying about his financial ties to the Chinese government and failing to disclose his participation in the Thousand Talents program. The Education Department said it was investigating Harvard and Yale for failure to disclose at least $375 million in funding from China, Russia, Iran, and other American adversaries.

Last year, the F.B.I. also arrested a researcher named Zaosong Zheng, whose visa had been sponsored by Harvard, accusing him of preparing to smuggle cancer cells from the United States to China for research.

Mr. Li, 63, joined the Thousand Talents program in late 2011 while teaching at Emory, prosecutors said. As part of the program, he was given at least $500,000 that he failed to report to the I.R.S. while he studied Huntington’s disease and worked at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and at Jinan University conducting similar research, according to the Justice Department.

The National Institutes of Health learned that Mr. Li had left foreign research activity off his grant applications, prompting the investigation and criminal charges.

Mr. Ang, 63, was the director of the University of Arkansas’s High-Density Electronics Center, which was founded with Defense Department funds. The center made technology for use in the International Space Station, Mr. Ang said in an interview with an electrical engineering trade publication.

Writing last June to a researcher from Xidian University in China who planned to travel to the University of Arkansas, Mr. Ang cautioned the associate to stay silent on his involvement in the Thousand Talents program. “Not many people here know I am one of them but if this leaks out, my job here will be in deep troubles,” he wrote. He ended the correspondence with another warning: “After you read this email, please delete for safety sake as any email can be retrieved.”

Mr. Ang was also agitated that the researcher had written to his personal email account and copied his university address. “The university now knows” about the personal accounts, he wrote. A university librarian found a hard drive that contained the email, according to the criminal complaint.

Mr. Ang’s lawyer, Drew Ledbetter, did not respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Ang, who was born in Malaysia, earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Arkansas and his doctorate from Southern Methodist University before working at Texas Instruments. He returned to his alma mater in 1988 to teach in the electrical engineering department.

Mr. Ang also worked to obtain more than $5 million in grants from the U.S. government over the past seven years, according to a court filing. But he did not tell the University of Arkansas that he did work for Chinese universities and electronics technology companies, in violation of school policy.

Mr. Ang’s work also involved power grid security research, said Todd Shields, a dean at Arkansas. He said the university was asked a few months ago to give the federal government information about faculty travel to China but did not know which agency made the request.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/us/p ... china.html

[Mollick.R]

[schinnas]

MRCA canceled. 83 more Tejas ordered

Any link? Or this is your wishlist?

[Mollick.R]

US senator unveils 18-point plan to hold China accountable for coronavirus outbreak

WASHINGTON: A top US senator has unveiled an 18-point plan, including enhancing military ties with India, to hold the Chinese government accountable for its "lies, deception, and cover-ups" that ultimately led to the global coronavirus pandemic.

The prominent suggestions are moving manufacturing chain from China and deepening military-strategic ties India, Vietnam and Taiwan.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 750561.cms

[Sravan]

MRCA canceled. 83 more Tejas ordered

Any link? Or this is your wishlist?

https://theprint.in/defence/iaf-to-buy- ... ys/421827/

IAF to buy 83 more Tejas fighters from HAL instead of foreign jets, CDS Rawat says

[nam]

Just had a look at Lipulekh pass on the map. I can now understand why China is firing from Nepal's shoulder.

We have built a road towards Lipulekh and this is the point from where G219 is very close. To make it worse, G219 in this area is flanked by mountains, meaning no lateral access from Tibet.

The pass is very close to the road. very close. Shortcut to Mansarovar. We can break the communication b/w West and Eastern LAC...

The Chinese must be very worried.

[Sravan]

Just had a look at Lipulekh pass on the map. I can now understand why China is firing from Nepal's shoulder.

We have built a road towards Lipulekh and this is the point from where G219 is very close. To make it worse, G219 in this area is flanked by mountains, meaning no lateral access from Tibet.

The pass is very close to the road. very close. Shortcut to Mansarovar. We can break the communication b/w West and Eastern LAC...

The Chinese must be very worried.

PoK needs to be captured by year end. TIbet buffer needs to be added by end of year to address issues like this as well.