Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 18 Aug 2023 18:51

Ukraine has lost 40,000-75000 men after 75 days of their “counteroffensive.” according to some reports

Is this possible?

Meanwhile

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/stat ... 9693360128

Rich Ukrainians party in Kiev, while the poor get sent to the front

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 19 Aug 2023 14:31

The US has finally given its okay for transferring F16s to Ukraine. Apparently Denmark has 24 and Netherlands around 16 that can be transferred not sure which Block though.

Thats about 2 squadrons and a bit more. Given the heavy AA cover the Russians have one wonders how long before we hear news of F16 being downed…

Pakraine thinks this is going to make the counter offensive a success.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Aug 2023 15:06

Lets hope Ru pilots start growing big moustaches for luck and photo opps coz like a certain Vardhaman, they dont lack balls either !

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Aug 2023 17:57

Tanaji wrote: ↑19 Aug 2023 14:31 The US has finally given its okay for transferring F16s to Ukraine. Apparently Denmark has 24 and Netherlands around 16 that can be transferred not sure which Block though.

Thats about 2 squadrons and a bit more. Given the heavy AA cover the Russians have one wonders how long before we hear news of F16 being downed…

Pakraine thinks this is going to make the counter offensive a success.

The Dutch aircraft are over 25 years old and by law (in Holland) have to be scrapped. They are transferring them to Ukraine instead.
The F-16 is a sensitive aircraft. The runways it operates from have to be free of any foreign objects, the hangars temperature controlled etc.
RuAF will almost certainly attack the airfields where the F-16 operate from.

The Danish aircraft are F16-A, Entered Danish service in 2005.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Aug 2023 18:09

vijayk wrote: ↑18 Aug 2023 18:51 Ukraine has lost 40,000-75000 men after 75 days of their “counteroffensive.” according to some reports

Is this possible?

Meanwhile

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/stat ... 9693360128

Rich Ukrainians party in Kiev, while the poor get sent to the front

The Ukraine order of battle for the counter-offensive in the Zaparozhye front, was 25 brigades.
This includes its 2 final reserve brigades which have not seen action so far. 3 are holding brigades, which have not been actively involved
in fighting.
At 3500 men per brigade, Ukraine started the counter offensive with 87500 men, of which about 75,000 were in some action.

They could not have lost the entire force since they are still attacking. Normally with a 50% loss in manpower a unit is not capable of
any offensive action (let alone advance against intense artillery, minefields and air strikes).
My best guess (going by the proportion of vehicles destroyed) 25,000 - 35,000 irreplaceable casualties.

sudham · Post by **sudham** » 19 Aug 2023 19:06

Tanaji wrote: ↑19 Aug 2023 14:31 Thats about 2 squadrons and a bit more. Given the heavy AA cover the Russians have one wonders how long before we hear news of F16 being downed…

But this is good news for the MIC. The perfect business case for getting more F35 and maybe the 6th Gen fighter. The F16 is anyway on the disinvest list and what is more it builds up the demand for more F35 from other countries.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Aug 2023 21:28

UKN leadership must be getting a lot of loot out of the funding it is receiving. Otherwise, they will not continue this stupidity.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 20 Aug 2023 23:07

Yagnasri wrote: ↑20 Aug 2023 21:28 UKN leadership must be getting a lot of loot out of the funding it is receiving. Otherwise, they will not continue this stupidity.

The Ukies may not even want to win looking at how the gravy train goes on in perpetuity.. why kill a golden goose

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 21 Aug 2023 00:52

Ukr is just a transit point for all those billions of $$$ , most of which is going back to US mic.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 21 Aug 2023 08:13

Yagnasri wrote: ↑20 Aug 2023 21:28 UKN leadership must be getting a lot of loot out of the funding it is receiving. Otherwise, they will not continue this stupidity.

Most ministers, including Zelenski, have dual citizenship. Some have spent more time in other countries than Ukraine. Do they really
care about Ukraine ?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Aug 2023 08:39

Deans wrote: ↑19 Aug 2023 17:57
Tanaji wrote: ↑19 Aug 2023 14:31 The US has finally given its okay for transferring F16s to Ukraine. Apparently Denmark has 24 and Netherlands around 16 that can be transferred not sure which Block though.

Thats about 2 squadrons and a bit more. Given the heavy AA cover the Russians have one wonders how long before we hear news of F16 being downed…

Pakraine thinks this is going to make the counter offensive a success.
The Dutch aircraft are over 25 years old and by law (in Holland) have to be scrapped. They are transferring them to Ukraine instead.
The F-16 is a sensitive aircraft. The runways it operates from have to be free of any foreign objects, the hangars temperature controlled etc.
RuAF will almost certainly attack the airfields where the F-16 operate from.

The Danish aircraft are F16-A, Entered Danish service in 2005.

Pay attention to contracts given to LM & Raytheon. I suspect USAF FMS vehicle or DLA support to Netherlands & Denmark are likely in place. Too bad brar_w was chased away by mods in this forum as he could have filled in some useful data.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 21 Aug 2023 09:44

Both the airforce are replacing the F 16 with the F35.

Only then the aircrafts are getting handed over to Ukraine.

Just as we have seen game changer after game changer. This is another game changer for Ukraine.

As long as single Ukrainian is left alive. This war will continue.

bala · Post by **bala** » 21 Aug 2023 09:51

Cyrano wrote: ↑21 Aug 2023 00:52 Ukr is just a transit point for all those billions of $$$ , most of which is going back to US mic.

If you are in the US, then there is a ritual called Spring Cleaning done across homes in the US, wherein the old stuff is taken out and they have a yard sale, selling of the stuff. Similarly, the US and other Nato nations are looking at their old stuff (which in many cases is good for the fight at hand) and sending them over to the Ukes. It has strings attached, like they have to pay back some money for the largesse. Eventually, the Uke aam public (with whatever is left as a nation) is now going to pay it back in one form or other. Once the old stock (which has been fully depreciated by tax system) is cleared, the MIC are given massive orders for the new fangled next gen system. Again the US/Euro taxpayers are on the hook to pay such extravagance. All in all, a happy system that the war creates. A lot of mini-celebration with goodies for the fight but alas the public at large is shafted once again. The deep state operatives chuckle behind our backs.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Aug 2023 11:01

https://twitter.com/search?q=ukraine%20 ... yped_query

Throughout an eventful summer, NATO has provided critical support to Ukraine in the collection and processing of intelligence, through constant overflights over the Black Sea and Europe

This map shows flights from May 20 to August 5, 2023

My question is this NATO, Satellites, AWACS, Surveillance Drones have logged in lots of hours over 18 months, Crews, Fuel, spare parts, Airframe life much of it would have been used up.

At some point it will start to give in and gaps will appear

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 21 Aug 2023 12:34

A question:
Are we acting as a conduit for Chini Maal to Ruski??
Reports in Telegraph is just a roose to create distrust??
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -xi-putin/

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 21 Aug 2023 17:58

Aditya_V wrote: ↑21 Aug 2023 11:01My question is this NATO, Satellites, AWACS, Surveillance Drones have logged in lots of hours over 18 months, Crews, Fuel, spare parts, Airframe life much of it would have been used up.

At some point it will start to give in and gaps will appear.

Basis map all of these are not ISR flights in support of Ukraine. Only those on periphery of Ukraine are nato ISR - a number of other fligts might have had other purposes - like those going over western europe. Also all the ISR supporting Ukraine are also not here - some ISR flights crossing into Ukraine (with Ukraine's willingness) will not be reported.

Yes these flights will not go on but the cost of these flights is a fraction of nearly 150Bn+ allies have already provided to Ukraine. So these flights will not go away due to cost pressures, yet.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Aug 2023 19:45

Airframe life, spare parts , ground are and air crew fatigue. It will happen

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 21 Aug 2023 19:56

Rsatchi wrote: ↑21 Aug 2023 12:34 A question:
Are we acting as a conduit for Chini Maal to Ruski??
Reports in Telegraph is just a roose to create distrust??
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -xi-putin/

It is quite possible that someone somewhere is doing it. The purpose of these FARTicles is to outrage the aam Admi goras, and they are succeeding, just look at the comments.
Why they think countries that were not consulted about this war are obliged to take their side, I cannot understand.
They are fools, they have more than enough enemies, why do they want to make more ?
Strange they do not mention that they themselves are buying Russian energy and uranium.
This entire American adventure is a disaster.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Aug 2023 09:40

Prigozhin dead. Bomb in his private jet is the most likely reason.
His no 2, Utkin, who really founded Wagner, was also on the aircraft and dead.
As I have maintained since the coup attempt, treason is not something Putin will ever forget - every Russian knows there can be only 1 penalty
for being a traitor to the motherland at a time of war.
Prigozhin's itinerary is decided only a day in advance. He has 2 jets, his head of security decides at the last minute which one he will fly in.
So his death sends a signal that the state will get you irrespective of your level of security, or how untouchable you think you are.

There was also an understanding that Prigozhin will remain in Belarus, or outside Russia. By coming back to Russia, he was asking for trouble.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Aug 2023 13:50

Thats a chilling warning to all would be traitors.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 24 Aug 2023 18:53

Deans wrote: ↑24 Aug 2023 09:40 Prigozhin dead. Bomb in his private jet is the most likely reason.
His no 2, Utkin, who really founded Wagner, was also on the aircraft and dead.
As I have maintained since the coup attempt, treason is not something Putin will ever forget - every Russian knows there can be only 1 penalty
for being a traitor to the motherland at a time of war.
Prigozhin's itinerary is decided only a day in advance. He has 2 jets, his head of security decides at the last minute which one he will fly in.
So his death sends a signal that the state will get you irrespective of your level of security, or how untouchable you think you are.

There was also an understanding that Prigozhin will remain in Belarus, or outside Russia. By coming back to Russia, he was asking for trouble.

Even prigozhin must have known this - what chance was he giving himself by (a) negotiating in the first place during the coup - he could have carried on then itself...would have got to smwr (b) why he didnt defect to west - info / spy connects in return of quiet pardon

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 24 Aug 2023 19:09

Cyrano wrote: ↑24 Aug 2023 13:50 Thats a chilling warning to all would be traitors.

indeed it was a matter of time !.. as Putin said there is no forgiveness for traitors and those who betrayed the trust. That's statecraft. The interests of the state is paramount than any individual. All nations do need to have this approach, some are overt in their approach , others covert. Those states who don't enforce this fail, inevitably at some point.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 24 Aug 2023 19:10

YashG wrote: ↑24 Aug 2023 18:53
Deans wrote: ↑24 Aug 2023 09:40
So his death sends a signal that the state will get you irrespective of your level of security, or how untouchable you think you are.

There was also an understanding that Prigozhin will remain in Belarus, or outside Russia. By coming back to Russia, he was asking for trouble.
Even prigozhin must have known this - what chance was he giving himself by (a) negotiating in the first place during the coup - he could have carried on then itself...would have got to smwr (b) why he didnt defect to west - info / spy connects in return of quiet pardon

It was either him or the ones he hold dear. Why do you think he didnt reach Moscow with his convoy ?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Aug 2023 10:39

drnayar wrote: ↑24 Aug 2023 19:10
YashG wrote: ↑24 Aug 2023 18:53

Even prigozhin must have known this - what chance was he giving himself by (a) negotiating in the first place during the coup - he could have carried on then itself...would have got to smwr (b) why he didnt defect to west - info / spy connects in return of quiet pardon
It was either him or the ones he hold dear. Why do you think he didnt reach Moscow with his convoy ?

He could not have reached Moscow. Part of his 8000 man force with Progozhin was in Rostov (surrounded by 10,000 Russian and Chechen troops
who would have killed them) and the other half was halted neat the town of Serpukhov on the approaches to Moscow. The Wagner forces had only enough ammo for a short engagement. They were relying on Russian forces joining them. No one did. Nor did any opposition figure. Facing Wagner
was an elite Tank unit (more than a brigade) and Parachute division and interior ministry forces. Not to mention the Russian air force. Wagner forces would have been slaughtered.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 25 Aug 2023 20:53

Deans wrote: ↑25 Aug 2023 10:39
drnayar wrote: ↑24 Aug 2023 19:10

It was either him or the ones he hold dear. Why do you think he didnt reach Moscow with his convoy ?
He could not have reached Moscow. Part of his 8000 man force with Progozhin was in Rostov (surrounded by 10,000 Russian and Chechen troops
who would have killed them) and the other half was halted neat the town of Serpukhov on the approaches to Moscow. The Wagner forces had only enough ammo for a short engagement. They were relying on Russian forces joining them. No one did. Nor did any opposition figure. Facing Wagner
was an elite Tank unit (more than a brigade) and Parachute division and interior ministry forces. Not to mention the Russian air force. Wagner forces would have been slaughtered.

Yes that makes sense. So he chose to live another day. He was on thin ice though.

But why did he not try to defect to west ? ( the only thing I can think is that he still gave himself a chance to do something - working for putin/russia in someway AND didnt want to choose a life of ignominy in west - for sure he had a very risk taking behavior)

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 26 Aug 2023 01:50

From what I gather Progirjin is not a soldier, held no positions in any military unit. His business capabilities dont equate to any combat leadership capabilities. He could very well be the front for one or several other persons really in charge of Wagner's recruitment, planning, organisation, and operational leadership. It suits not only the western narrative but also Kremlin to make him a larger then life figure and pin everything on him. But the Russians know who is really who in Wagner, and wont dismantle this useful multi-tool in multiple situations and geographies just like that. Wagner forces will reorganise and reappear in a different form, they are malleable and elements that resist are expendable. The Russian state is not. Putin recently said there is no provision for such an organisation under Russian laws. Which means they will be treated/used as outlaws.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 26 Aug 2023 02:25

1st F16 delivered

.. couldnt resist posting this

source : https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4UzJ3KWgAM ... ame=medium

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 26 Aug 2023 02:54

Other than that are there any good reasons why Ukr is so anally focused on F16s only? Why not some other NATO fighter?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 26 Aug 2023 07:30

Because it is Pakraine?!!!

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Aug 2023 08:59

If Prigozin comitted treason and armed mutiny against the Russian state. Then there are plenty of legal ways of getting rid of him.

Killing him using a bomb on his plane makes little sense.

So why did Putin do it?

williams · Post by **williams** » 26 Aug 2023 09:34

Pratyush wrote: ↑26 Aug 2023 08:59 If Prigozin comitted treason and armed mutiny against the Russian state. Then there are plenty of legal ways of getting rid of him.

Killing him using a bomb on his plane makes little sense.

So why did Putin do it?

Yeah, that is normalizing treason as a legal issue. The mistake we in India make again and again and shooting at our own foot. This is war and treason needs to be treated as abnormal and the enemy within has to be eliminated by overt or covert military means in my opinion.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Aug 2023 10:00

You misunderstood my point.

Treason / mutiny during war time is automatically a capital offence. Conduct a summary trial, find him guilty and execute the bugger.

No one would have objected to that course of action in Russia.

If the terms following the mutiny were an exile to Belarus. Then the meeting in Kremlin between Wagner and Putin over ruled the terms of exile for Prigozin. That in turn made Prigozin untouchable by anyone including Putin.

With a bomb on the plane scenario. Putin has opened an attack vector on himself, inside Russia.

That is more damaging to him, in the long run. Than a summary trial followed by execution would have been.

So why did Putin do it?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Aug 2023 10:51

My simple explanation, The Russian set up was completely taken aback by that Coupe attempt- which probably had some Western Intelligence input. He needed time to work behind the scenes to separate Wagner soldiers from the Coupe leaders and the rot within the Russian system.

It was not ideal, heck even the invasion of Ukraine in Hindsight thinking he will take Kyiv in week seemed foolhardy. But thats the cards they play.

sajaym · Post by **sajaym** » 26 Aug 2023 12:51

Cyrano wrote: ↑26 Aug 2023 02:54
Other than that are there any good reasons why Ukr is so anally focused on F16s only? Why not some other NATO fighter?

F-16 is the best choice for Ukraine right now. A lot of YouTube videos are moaning about how Ukraine will require specialized maintenance crew to be stationed in Ukraine to maintain the F-16s. What they don't realise is that our next door beggars will gladly supply their men for such odd jobs, since they probably don't even have the money to pay their F-16 maintenance crews Just watch... the Ukrainian F-16 maintenance work is the next big money pipeline for the Pakistanis. Free F-16s from the west, cheap maintenance guys from Pakistan. Ukraine Subhanallah, Pakistan Inshallah!

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 27 Aug 2023 00:18

YashG wrote: ↑08 Aug 2023 20:56 [url]

Secondly this 750+ west effort of outfitting Ukraine is culmination. They will never be able to replicate this.

"“The American advice is based on the calculation that the surge of equipment the US has funneled to Ukraine…is enough for this offensive and is unlikely to be repeated at anywhere near the same level in 2024"

Excerpt from a WSJ Article behind paywall. But this 2023 effort was the culmination. It will not be replicated.

What that possibly means is depending upon how much russian armament production scales up the delta of armament outfitting b/w russia and ukraine will continue to increase.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 27 Aug 2023 00:21

Cyrano wrote: ↑26 Aug 2023 02:54
Other than that are there any good reasons why Ukr is so anally focused on F16s only? Why not some other NATO fighter?

1. The earliest versions that Ukraine will get have some stocks available waiting to be retired
2. F16 will have a morale boosting effect on troops - when it will fly above the frontlines; In combat capability the version of F16 Ukraine will get will be much inferior than upgraded Mig29s.

-- Zelensky's cocky leadership needs morale boosters to keep on running the show. I think he doesnt have full estimation that cockiness works well only in short term.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 27 Aug 2023 00:29

Real Video of Zelensky Dancing in Heels

a not so real one on twitter [warning : you cant unsee this one

] https://twitter.com/i/status/1695026017876816044

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 27 Aug 2023 00:32

Cyrano wrote: ↑26 Aug 2023 02:54
Other than that are there any good reasons why Ukr is so anally focused on F16s only? Why not some other NATO fighter?

LM wants a few F16s shot down [preferably all

] so that all those countries flying F16can justify billions in moving to the F35s

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 27 Aug 2023 01:33

drnayar wrote: ↑27 Aug 2023 00:32
Cyrano wrote: ↑26 Aug 2023 02:54
Other than that are there any good reasons why Ukr is so anally focused on F16s only? Why not some other NATO fighter?
LM wants a few F16s shot down [preferably all ] so that all those countries flying F16can justify billions in moving to the F35s

You meant Rafale. Right?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Aug 2023 11:10

Pratyush wrote: ↑26 Aug 2023 10:00 You misunderstood my point.

Treason / mutiny during war time is automatically a capital offence. Conduct a summary trial, find him guilty and execute the bugger.

No one would have objected to that course of action in Russia.

If the terms following the mutiny were an exile to Belarus. Then the meeting in Kremlin between Wagner and Putin over ruled the terms of exile for Prigozin. That in turn made Prigozin untouchable by anyone including Putin.

With a bomb on the plane scenario. Putin has opened an attack vector on himself, inside Russia.

That is more damaging to him, in the long run. Than a summary trial followed by execution would have been.
So why did Putin do it?

Prigozhin was pardoned after the attempted coup for treason and murder (of Russian servivemen).
That was done in the larger interest of preventing a civil war, in the middle of an existentialist war with NATO. Putin also needed time to see who in the Wagner group could be trusted.
Prizo could be prosecuted for things like tax evasion, but that would not be punishment in the eyes of the Russian public. Not doing anything would make Putin look weak, particularly when Prigozhin was violating the terms of his parole - stay in Belarus or outside Russia.

Progozhin had also boasted that his security was foolproof. By killing him Putin sends a message that he will not forgive treason, he was not soft on
Prigozhin (after he was given a fair chance) and the State will get you on matter what your security.