Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

[SSridhar]

India Braces for More Militants [Terrorists] in Kashmir as US quits Afghanistan

India is bracing for more militancy in Jammu and Kashmir, believing that fighters now focused on resisting US-led troops in Afghanistan will shift toward the Himalayan flashpoint with Pakistan.

Some say increased violence recently along India's heavily militarized border with Pakistan proves that shift is already under way. {We said that here quite a while ago. This analysis is not path-breaking.}

As a result, India is increasing use of drones, thermal sensors and foot patrols as it tries to catch out any battle-hardened militants moving through the forested mountains near the frontier. At the same time, Indian troops have increasingly been engaging in skirmishes with Pakistan's military.

Rebels "are testing us. They're making their presence felt by launching audacious attacks," an Indian Army commander in Kashmir said on condition of anonymity, in line with Army policy. "They have started recruiting young people into their folds. They are training some of these boys locally."

US officials and experts acknowledge there are valid concerns, though the US government has not discussed such a risk publicly. The chief of its forces in the Pacific says the US is increasingly discussing terrorist movements with countries in the region.

"We are thinking about it more and more each day, and this includes dialogue with our partners in India and Pakistan," Adm. Samuel Locklear told reporters in Washington this week.

India has long accused Pakistan of arming and training militants who fight in Kashmir, a charge Pakistan vehemently denies. Pakistan has consistently said it gives the rebels only moral and diplomatic support. {And the world believes that and parrots it too religiously like in this report ?}

The two countries regularly blame each other for starting skirmishes, but they agree the violence has escalated to its highest level — killing dozens of troops and civilians on both sides — since a 2003 ceasefire agreement. In August, the countries' troops engaged in fierce fighting almost daily after India said 20 militants along with Pakistani soldiers crossed the border and killed five Indian soldiers. Pakistan denied that, saying instead that Indian shelling killed two of its civilians.

Some Pakistani analysts believe the country's army leaders have little interest in rocking the boat now, raising the worrying possibility that the recent violence was sparked by militants who have gone rogue or are operating in cooperation with lower-level officials sympathetic to their cause. {Nobody can believe that nonsense. These are not rogue elements. They are Pakistani supported terrorists as it exactly happened in the 80s}

"We need to be vigilant, we need to be prepared and we need to be alert for any such eventuality," Indian army Northern Commander Lt. Gen. Sanjiv Chachra said in a TV interview recently broadcast in India. "I think the drawdown (of US forces in the region) will definitely have effect. As a professional army we are keeping a tag of it."

Kashmir is an obvious next battleground for Islamic militants who sympathize with the Kashmiri rebellion, Indian Army officials and international experts say.

Within India "there is widespread anticipation that Pakistan will divert elements of Jihadi forces (in Afghanistan) to this side," GK Pillai, a former Indian home secretary, told the Associated Press.

In the past, some rebels in Kashmir were either trained in Afghanistan or were Afghan nationals, India says.

"Our worry is not the number of militants," the Indian Army commander said on condition of anonymity. "The worry is the quality of the people who are likely to come. They're battle-hardened, aggressive and smart. They know the warfare."

Of particular concern is Lashkar-e-Taiba, a well-organized group based in Pakistan's Punjab province. The group is widely believed to have carried out the deadly 2008 attack in the Indian city of Mumbai and is believed to have historical ties to Pakistani intelligence.

Its leader, Hafiz Saeed, regards Kashmir as "unfinished business" and probably the group's "core mission," said Jonah Blank, senior political analyst at the US-government funded think tank the Rand Corp. and a former adviser to current Secretary of State John Kerry.

Stephen Tankel, an American University professor who has written a book on Lashkar, said the group has "been vocal about an intention to rejuvenate the jihad in Kashmir."

"LeT is a big enough, strong enough and elastic enough organization that it won't shift away from Afghanistan. Rather, we can expect them to remain active there and to put additional efforts into Kashmir," Tankel said. "Early indications suggest this is already under way, including an uptick in high-profile attacks in Kashmir in which LeT is believed to be involved."

Indian military and police officials say they are seeing alarming changes in the decades-old tactics that Kashmiri rebels and Pakistani military supporters have generally used in the past.

This year's fighting between India and Pakistan has unusually extended southward from the Line of Control to border areas that are not disputed by India. And while Pakistani troops in the past would fire across the border to provide cover for infiltrating militants, such fire is now coming regardless of any rebels being present, according to police chief Ashok Prasad.

There appears to be little appetite for a full-blown conflict within either government, and Pakistani officials dismissed the idea that they would want to raise border tensions by sending militants across into Kashmir.

"Even if we are mad, why should we be creating trouble at this point of time when we are in so much trouble ourselves?" said retired Pakistani diplomat Riaz Hussain Khokhar, who served as ambassador to India and as foreign secretary helped negotiate the 2003 cease-fire. Pakistan is dealing with its own domestic insurgencies, a moribund economy and fears that Afghanistan will implode when the US combat mission ends. "There is no effort on the part of Pakistan to send in militants at this point of time."

Pakistan's Nawaz Sharif and India's Manmohan Singh agreed in September to work on reducing border hostilities.

But even as they spoke, their armies were lobbing mortar shells at each other. The next month, the fighting spread to southern border areas that had been largely peaceful for a decade, prompting officials on both sides to call it the most serious fighting in a decade.

"We probably are not looking at a return to the levels of violence witnessed a decade ago," Tankel said. However, "even a small uptick in raw numbers could have significant political, economic and security consequences."

Pakistan's new government has said it wants to ask the US for help in resolving the conflict, but India balks at the idea of intervention in what it considers an internal and bilateral dispute.

[SSridhar]

Breaking News

NDTV reports that Haqqani's son has been shot dead. It is not clear if the dead is Sirajuddin Haqqani (Jalaluddin's son) or his son.

[Virendra]

Nasiruddin Haqqani it is. Popped down by bikers who fired at him by automatic rifle.
He was the financier and best networking arm of Haqqanis.
In the murky industry of terror, networking is not always a profitable feature I see.

It is 'pop the middleman' season in Af-Pak these days. Remember Mehsud? Things are churning.

[SSridhar]

Is India Exploring Options with Visa to Taliban Leader ? - ToI

The Centre's decision to give a visa to Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef has triggered speculation whether the government is exploring options, keeping in view the chaos that many fear will reign in Afghanistan after withdrawal of the US and NATO troops from the war-ravaged country next year.

"It was a conscious decision to facilitate his visa due to certain considerations," said sources in the ministry of home affairs which was instrumental in the controversial decision, leading many to wonder whether New Delhi is bracing for a situation where it might have to deal with the fundamentalist group which turned Afghanistan into a sanctuary for terrorists and a laboratory for a rigid form of Islam.

MHA sources made it plain that visa for the Taliban leader was not an oversight, emphasizing that the intelligence agencies were very much in the loop.

While the Taliban was considered beyond the pale by the international community post-9/11, its tenacity and the likelihood that it will be factor to reckon with after the pullout of the foreign forces has led the US and other nations to recalibrate their approach towards the bunch.

Zaeef, a close associate of Mullah Omar who headed the Taliban government in Afghanistan before the US invasion in the wake of the terror attack on New York, attended the Think Fest in Goa: a high brow event where Union ministers were also present. {A very appropriate place is Goa for a Taliban leader}

The decision to let him in contrasted with the home ministry's stringent checks on visa applicants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and other high-risk countries: a precaution which is extended even to people wishing to visit their relatives here.

Intriguingly, the foreign ministry said it had not been consulted or told about the visit.

Interestingly, Zaeef was the Talibani ambassador to Pakistan before 9/11.

[abhijitm]

^ hmm very interesting. What are we up to here? Is he still close to Mullah Omar?

[JE Menon]

Nothing really, just the usual bureaucratic chaos and confusion, left hand not knowing with right hand is, etc. etc... Probably thought, hey, he's been to the US and other countries so, we should show we are just as open minded... Five years down the line, this guy (if he survives that long) will be abusing India for one thing or another...

[syele]

It is in India's interest to have communication channels with all potential players in Af-Pak theater. It is a different matter if these players can be influenced or not but it is very important to know what their positions are on a given issue. From Taliban side too, they need to understand India's position and interests. India has some influence in post-withdrawal Afghanistan and it can be used by Taliban to influence Pakistan.

The alleged meeting between Chidambaram and Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef might be about this. The involvement of players like Tehelka is an indicator of facilitators behind this meeting or necessary smoke screen to gain some internal mileage.

[ramana]

its possible Taliban is also reaching out through Mullah Zaeef.

If so watch the Paki reaction to him.

Could get Baradered. But on other hand he already spent time in US prisons.

[Prem]

One day, hopefully soon he will be the Foreign Minister of new Afghan Emirate in Peshawar or Kandhar coming up by 2017. India can play neutral party like China in their boundary issue with Pakijab. Mullah FM Radio comes to FATA and Mullah Zaeef comes to Goa and both are supposedly close to Mullah Omar!! Lets wait for Baluchi resistence to make public appearance in Gelf before visting Goa to discuss
Goa Ke Chunanche or Koye Lautta De Baloch Ke 47 Wale Din with Indians.

[ramana]

SSridhar, Isn't it ironical that Chidambaram who coined the mirage of 'saffron terror' is seen in same picture along with real green Taliban terrorist!

[Paul]

Mullah Zaeef was given a visa on the intervention of Indian intelligence agencies. It is realpolitik and acceptance of ground realities. It is time this link to the taliban be strengthened to prevent a reoccurrence of IC-814 Kandahar fiasco.

We need to set up an independent channel with the Taliban.

[Lilo]

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-in ... es-1918128
Indian visa granted to Taliban leader after suggestions from intelligence agencies
Tuesday, Nov 12, 2013, 21:33 IST | Agency: PTI

Sources said Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef was granted visa following detailed deliberations in the Home Ministry during which intelligence agencies strongly backed the move arguing that India may have to deal with the Taliban when US and NATO forces leave Afghanistan next year

Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, who attended a conference in Goa, was granted visa following suggestions from intelligence agencies which apparently told the Home Ministry the challenges India may face in Afghanistan after withdrawal of international forces.

Sources said Zaeef was granted visa following detailed deliberations in the Home Ministry during which intelligence agencies strongly backed the move arguing that India may have to deal with the Taliban when US and NATO forces leave Afghanistan next year.

Zaeef, a confident of Mullah Omar who had headed the Taliban government in Afghanistan till 2001 before the US invasion, attended the Think Fest in Goa in last weekend. Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI's continuous influnece over the Taliban might have forced the Indian intelligence agencies to recalibrate approach towards the terror group.

The decision was a complete U-turn of the Home Ministry's stated tough position against global terrorist outfit and stringent background check done while granting visa to nationals of Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and a few other countries, sources said.

So GOI more or less concedes now that Taliban will retake gov in AFG. But then what more in concesssions will the Afghan Talibs demand once they come to power?

Since the "talk" of Taleban returning to power in Af-pak has been first peddled in the western MSM (back in 2006) there has been an inevitable convergence towards that endstate like a self fulfilling prediction - or this is what one has to believe according to the West.
I myself believe that the current end state of a "stable" taleban govt in Af-Pak was achieved with a firm intent for more than a decade by the powers that invaded it in the first place . So Afghan invasion turns out to be just a chastising lesson for the talebs to "behave" in the future - and yet carry on their natural way of living trading in terror,drugs and slaves.

West wants this chastised Taleban govt (bigwigs perpetually under the hanging sword of a decapitation strike from a drone) to do their bidding without deviations from the "script" in the future - especially in matters of terror blackmail against neighboring states (including India,Russia,China,CIS,Iran), Drugs (Heroin, opium etc to Russia,Eastern Europe onwards to Europe,Karachi to rest of the world) , Slaves (women,boys and girls of Afghan,Paki or Iranian extraction) to the clients in Western and Gelf capitals.

And as a state protected haven and training playground for assorted terrorists funneled from Middle east,Syria,India,Paki,BD,Uighur,Caucasus,Europe,Americas etc - basically same as pre 2001 situation but now with firm Western oversight to direct attacks on intended targets onlee (like in the truant nations of turd world and other western competitors ).

The occupancy of over a decade in Afghanistan has given the opportunity to recruit families/clans (working as spies ) on their payroll to keep track of issues of significance especially related to above three(Terror,Drugs,Slaves) and to enforce realtime compliance from people that ultimately matter in the taleb setup post 2014.

[SSridhar]

NightWatch For the night of 14 November 2013

Afghanistan: Government security forces recently intercepted one of the largest truck bombs ever built, a massive "vehicle-borne improvised explosive device," or VBIED, packed with some 61,500 pounds of explosives. {~28000 Kg} The Hino heavy cargo truck was stopped as it crossed into Afghanistan from Pakistan south of Peshawar. Hino Motors is owned by Toyota. According to the press accounts, Afghan and US sources claimed the truck belonged to the Haqqani network which is responsible for almost all major bombings in Kabul and in the eastern provinces that border Pakistan, where the Haqqani syndicate is based. The news sources suggested that a likely target was the US military's Forward Operating Base Goode near Gardez City. According to Afghan sources, the driver was a Pakistani who set off a grenade in the cab of the truck. He was taken to a nearby hospital where he detonated a suicide vest and killed himself, officials said. News sources reported no other casualties from the detonations.

Comment: News analysts reported that this truck bomb was 12 times greater by weight of the explosives than the Oklahoma City bomb in 1995 and six times greater than the amount of explosives used in the 1983 Beirut Marine Barracks bombing. Like the Oklahoma City bomb, the primary explosive agent was ammonium nitrate fertilizer, according to the press. The audacity of the attempt is more impressive than the fact that authorities discovered the truck. This attempt is significant for several reasons. First, it is a monumental act of defiance of Afghan security. Second, the truck could not have come as close as it did to Gardez without significant help by Pakistani and Afghan border guards or paramilitary forces. The truck was stalled on the side of the road, apparently, when the Afghans found it. Finally, only two fertilizer plants in Pakistan make ammonium nitrate fertilizer. These are the same two plants that have been making it throughout the duration of the US and NATO intervention in Afghanistan, the past 12 years, with impunity. Afghanistan has no fertilizer factories and only the Taliban and drug growers use this fertilizer because it is more expensive than the alternatives. The Afghan government has outlawed imports of ammonium nitrate fertilizers, but they continue to pour in. Despite 12 years of NATO operations and ostensibly elaborate cooperation with the Pakistanis, the Haqqanis continue to operate with impunity and apparently still enjoy the protection of Pakistani military intelligence.

[ramana]

It shouldnt take more than a small band to neutralize those two fertilizer plants in TSP with a short circuit or air vacuum burst.

[SSridhar]

SSridhar, Isn't it ironical that Chidambaram who coined the mirage of 'saffron terror' is seen in same picture along with real green Taliban terrorist!

And, the other pillar of this vacuous theory, Sushilkumar Shinde, has issued the visa and brought him in clandestinely.

Anyway, now, the Karzai Government frowns this Indian contact.

Kabul should be in picture in talks with Taliban, says Abdali - The Hindu

Afghanistan has frowned on intelligence agencies of various countries contacting Taliban leaders independently, without taking Kabul into confidence. “This approach takes us nowhere. This has been proved in the past as well,” Afghanistan Ambassador Shaida Abdali said here on Saturday.

Mr. Abdali was responding to questions at the Press Club of India about Taliban leader Abdul Salam Zaeef having been granted a visa to India amidst reports that intelligence agencies wanted to understand the situation in Afghanistan and explore India’s role in the unfolding situation.

The envoy also said India and Afghanistan were closely engaged on beefing up their security ties and at the moment were assessing what assistance could be realistically possible. The Ambassador was appreciative of the Afghan Sandhurst Academy for training army officers and indicated that another training institution of this would be a preferred assistance option from India.

On talks with Taliban, he felt it would be better if Afghanistan’s well wishers backed Kabul and stood united in pursuing a common strategy rather than pursuing different channels of communication. “That’s why talks have not succeeded,” Mr. Abdali said.

Peace talks were moving ahead, he assessed, but not at a satisfactory level. The London trilateral involving Afghanistan, Pakistan and the host country was good in terms of decisions but the challenge was to change those good intentions into action. Afghanistan was looking forward to talks between the High Peace Council and the Taliban facilitated by Pakistan government and also pinned hopes on next month’s trilateral between Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey.

Role of India, Pakistan

Describing the transition process as being “on track,” the envoy was concerned about “unrealistic reporting being done by some.” There are 2 crore phone users in Afghanistan in a population of 3 crore and this applies to education as well with 10,000 Afghani students in India alone.

The Pakistan’s role in Afghan security was crucial with Mr. Abdali describing it as the “most important role” in accelerating reconciliation talks and bringing about peace in Afghanistan.

The Ambassador lay store on an economic renaissance in Afghanistan and pointed to the important role that India could play. India has won tenders to the Hajigak iron ore mine and has an ambitious $10-billion investment plan for the project besides a railway line that will cut connect Bamyan to Iran’s Chah-bahar port.

India, Iran and Afghanistan are due to sign a trilateral agreement on trade and transit cooperation and Mr. Abdali drew attention to the upcoming business conclave focussing on Afghanistan to be held here next week followed by the next Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process conference in China {I hope India is a participant} to suggest that there were many more business opportunities than mineral extraction. Afghanistan had already done a trial run by sending 15 containers of dry fruits through Chah-bahar port to India.

[Satya_anveshi]

Pact May Extend U.S. Troops’ Stay in Afghanistan

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State John Kerry announced on Wednesday that the United States and Afghanistan had finalized the wording of a bilateral security agreement that would allow for a lasting American troop presence through 2024 and set the stage for billions of dollars of international assistance to keep flowing to the government in Kabul.

[SSridhar]

^ The 3000-member Loya Jirga, in session now, has to approve the pact and then it has to go through both houses of the Afghan Parliament.

[TSJones]

^^^^^^ There may be problems with this. Rumor has it that the US Senate may want ultimate approval. Noooobody is happy with unending support for Afganistan. We all realize if we leave the terrorists will be back charge, *but* if they ever mess with us again we will bomb them to eternity. Guaranteed.

[Theo_Fidel]

TSJ,

American folks, including state department lack understanding of this region. Things are fluid but typically it is Pashtun and increasingly Pakistani Taliban that are the source of the threat to America. Northern Afghanistan is relatively quiet and appears to have become more integrated into CA/Russian areas. These areas, when they manage to hang together are the majority of Afghanistan. Something like 60% IIRC. Afghanistan proper is actually relatively benign towards USA interests. Long term support must be provided.

There is zero chance of the terrorists being back 'in charge' without full on support from the Pakistani Authorities/ Taliban. I would like to mention there is very little difference between the world views of these two groups. One speaks better English.

The threat will only subside when the bigoted and racist world view of these folks, increasingly on the Pakistani side is challenged/changed. Good luck on that....

[JE Menon]

TSJ,

They are already bombed to eternity, pretty much. The problem is not Afghanistan. No Afghan group has attacked the US outside Afghanistan. Everybody in the US knows what and where the problem is. Gradually, they are beginning to act on it. American troops will stay in Afghanistan to support that action. In short it will be your strategic depth against Pakistan. The US has finally understood that the pot must be kept boiling in Pakistan, but it must never simmer over. The fun is only beginning.

The Sunni-Shiite relationship is very important for the non-Islamic world. The world must work to ensure harmony between these two groups, and to prevent any risk of true Islam being in danger in any of these countries. Fortunately, the latter is not too hard.

[Satya_anveshi]

Amusing reaction from TSJ. His current president made election promise (a core change from Bush regime) of bringing back troops. He seems to be breaking that promise. It is also reported that Obama tweaked the unemployment reports during election time to paint a rosier picture.
Point is, just like his President, his words reflecting bravado may very well be cover up for /reflection of SNAFU that is the real shituation. Even after 10 years, so called hyperpower, could not fix rag-tag bunch of militants in spite of unspeakable human rights violations and none of the core objectives of US presence in Afghanistan are achieved.

Hmmm..gloat away how great chimps you all are. We totally "believe" it.

[Rahul M]

^^^^^^ There may be problems with this. Rumor has it that the US Senate may want ultimate approval. Noooobody is happy with unending support for Afganistan. We all realize if we leave the terrorists will be back charge, *but* if they ever mess with us again we will bomb them to eternity. Guaranteed.

problem is US administration can't read a map.

[TSJones]

TSJ,

They are already bombed to eternity, pretty much. The problem is not Afghanistan. No Afghan group has attacked the US outside Afghanistan. Everybody in the US knows what and where the problem is. Gradually, they are beginning to act on it. American troops will stay in Afghanistan to support that action. In short it will be your strategic depth against Pakistan. The US has finally understood that the pot must be kept boiling in Pakistan, but it must never simmer over. The fun is only beginning.

The Sunni-Shiite relationship is very important for the non-Islamic world. The world must work to ensure harmony between these two groups, and to prevent any risk of true Islam being in danger in any of these countries. Fortunately, the latter is not too hard.

Mullah Omar gave them sanctuary. We have denied them that sanctuary....so far. Most of the US troops will come home but there will continue to be US outposts in Afghanistan. Plus, there is a plan to contiue to pay for the Afghan military and government. Again I must state, nobody wants this, certainly not the majority of the American public. Once we can reduce our exit and supply route through Pakistan, they will get cut off also.

Now, how all of this is going to work out I have no idea but I suspect the American public is going to put any continuing payments to Pakistan and unending support to Afghanistan on a very short leash. There is no patience for it. Just like Iraq.

The PM of Iraq recently came to DC looking for help. He got no promises.

They had better understand there are consequences and we can go long and hit hard. I seriously think they want to die. We should accomodate them. Them, their wives, their children and their pet goats.

No more from me on this. Just telling ya, the plan may not get any support.

[JE Menon]

>>Mullah Omar gave them sanctuary.

Mullah Omar gave them jack. He didn't have much of a choice. Which is why he pointed out that Osama was like a bone stuck in his throat, couldn't spit it out and couldn't swallow it. Pakistan is the one who gave Osama sanctuary, and is the one who is giving Mullah Omar sanctuary now. They got Osama into Afghanistan from Sudan, and they used him, and protected him until he was taken out by the US - very rightly, only that I'd like to have seen more mayhem in Pak as part of it.

Probably American restraint is right, as it seems the objective is to grind Pakistan into the ground in slow-mo.

[SSridhar]

Afghan council meets Baradar - Meena Menon, The Hindu

A five-member delegation of Afghanistan’s High Peace Council (HPC), led by chairperson Salahuddin Rabbani, was here [Islamabad] from November 19-21, a visit that was not much publicised. Earlier, the Foreign Office refused to confirm the visit saying dates were not decided.

Last month, in London, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai met Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at a trilateral summit with the U.K. and announced the Council’s visit, mainly to meet released Taliban commander Mullah Baradar. The Council extended its stay by a day reportedly to meet Baradar. No official confirmed if the meeting took place. However, The Express Tribune confirmed that the meeting did take place, quoting Afghan sources.

Pakistan has faced criticism from Afghanistan that Baradar was being kept in prison and not allowed to interact with anyone.

In response, Tariq Fatemi, special assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, had said Baradar was a free man and could go wherever he likes. Baradar, a close associate of Mullah Omar, was freed in September to help peace negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan but there appears to be no headway on the talks after his release.

The Council is mandated to carry out talks with the Taliban and Baradar was expected to play a key role. The Council met the Adviser to the Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs and called on the Prime Minister.

[SSridhar]

Afghan Pact Sees Role for 15000 Western Troops - AFP, The Hindu

Afghan President Hamid Karzai gave his backing on Thursday to a proposed security pact with the United States that will see up to 15,000 foreign troops stay.

But he said it would not be signed until after next year’s election.[/b]

A grand assembly of tribal chieftains, community elders and politicians began four days of debate on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), which will shape Washington’s future military presence in Afghanistan. Hours before the meeting, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the two sides had finally agreed the text of the pact.

A letter to Mr. Karzai from U.S. President Barack Obama confirmed an agreement announced by Afghan officials on Tuesday over the question of U.S. forces raiding Afghan homes. It said U.S. forces would not enter Afghan homes “except under extraordinary circumstances involving urgent risk to life and limb of U.S. nationals”.

If the Loya Jirga assembly approves the BSA, it must then be passed by the Afghan Parliament.

It has been touted as vital to the country’s future after 2014, when the bulk of NATO’s 75,000 troops will pull out. Mr. Karzai urged the 2,500 delegates to consider “future prosperity” as they made their decision, saying the deal gave the country a chance to move on after more than 30 years of war.

He signalled yet another delay to the pact, which Washington had wanted completed by the end of October, saying it would only be signed “when our elections are conducted, correctly and with dignity”.

Afghanistan goes to the polls on April 5 to elect a successor to Mr. Karzai, who told delegates Afghanistan needed Washington’s cooperation in ensuring a clean, fair ballot.

The deal will see 10,000-15,000 foreign troops remain after NATO pulls out the bulk of its forces by the end of 2014, Mr. Karzai said.

But he stressed that not all would be American, saying there would be troops from NATO countries and “some other Muslim nations”.

And he gave a frank assessment of his often thorny relationship with Washington, his principal foreign backer.

“America does not trust me and I do not trust them. I have had struggles with them and they have spread propaganda against me,” he said.

A draft text released by Kabul late on Wednesday appeared to show Mr. Karzai had bowed to a U.S. demand that American troops would not be tried in local courts if they are accused of crimes — an issue that became a major hurdle in the negotiations.

A similar security deal between the U.S. and Iraq collapsed in 2011 over the issue of whether American troops would be answerable to local courts, leading Washington to pull its forces out.

But the text, published on the Afghan foreign ministry website, said Kabul had agreed that the United States should have “the exclusive right to exercise jurisdiction” over its forces in Afghanistan.

[darshhan]

It shouldnt take more than a small band to neutralize those two fertilizer plants in TSP with a short circuit or air vacuum burst.

Ramana ji, It will also take guts which Americans have in extremely short supply.

[darshhan]

^^^^^^ There may be problems with this. Rumor has it that the US Senate may want ultimate approval. Noooobody is happy with unending support for Afganistan. We all realize if we leave the terrorists will be back charge, *but* if they ever mess with us again we will bomb them to eternity. Guaranteed.

TSJ, trust me nothing is going to happen. There is nothing left to bomb in Afghanistan after 3 decades of warfare. And Americans simply do not have the courage or fortitude to fight it out with Pakistan going by the events of last 12 years. Add to this the growing economic and moral bankruptcy of USA, which will ensure that America's options will continue to be limited in the coming future. Plus the rising Big Brother type tendencies in US will mean that America will find it more comfortable to target their own citizens than any other country/enemy.

If terrorists mess with America again, I seriously worry what TSA/BATFE/Local SWAT etc are going to do to the ordinary flag waving american citizen. As it is he lives in probably the most regulated society in world (save North Korea) under the most extensive and sophisticated surveillance that this planet has ever seen.

The only country in the world that has fought with Pakistan in the past, is currently fighting it and will continue to fight in Future is India.

[SSridhar]

India-Iran Talks Create New Atmosphere for Peace Pipeline via Pakistan - Sandeep Dikshit, The Hindu

When they hold their next Foreign Office consultations on Monday, India and Iran will review the same list of issues in new circumstances brought about by the promise of easing U.S. sanctions.

“Relations with Iran have been held up due to the U.S. sanctions. The talks have created a new atmosphere for the Peace Pipeline via Pakistan,” says Chintamani Mahapatra of the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Despite India having walked away from talks on the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Peace Pipeline citing security concerns, Iranian Deputy Minister for International and Commercial affairs Ali Majedi on Saturday expected New Delhi to overcome its doubts and join the project.

Government officials advised caution as some ground remained to be covered in the nuclear talks but felt the vibes generated by the just-ended Geneva Round will bring Iran into the Afghanistan game which will be to India’s advantage. Both Iran and India are concerned over the U.S.-Pakistan initiative to hold peace talks with the Afghan Taliban without preconditions. “If the U.S.-Iran ties improve, Tehran will be inclined to play an increasingly constructive role in Afghanistan,” noted Srinath Raghavan, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research.

Officials say modernisation and expansion of the Chah-bahar port will be vital for providing India and the international community access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. It will also ensure Indian presence just 80 km away from the Chinese built Gwadar port in Pakistan. India has allotted $100 million for the port’s development and is sorting out a trilateral arrangement with Iran and Afghanistan for a customs and transit agreement.

Senior Iranian officials see the Shahid Beheshti Port and its contiguous free trade zone as crucial for Afghanistan’s economic growth and say that over the past one year there has been tangible progress in moving the concept forward during high level interactions with Indian officials. But Mr. Raghavan says in conversations with Indian interlocutors, Tehran has not been clear about New Delhi’s role. Prof. Mahapatra expected a push for the North South Corridor that will use the Bandar Abbas port for connectivity with Turkmenistan, the Caucasus and beyond.

The port can be connected to Afghanistan and even beyond to Central Asia by linking it up to the Iranian border town of Milak on the Afghan border. An Indian-built road from the corresponding Afghan border town of Zaranj will then lead to the Afghan garland highway.

In the first trilateral, India, Iran and Afghanistan agreed on preferential treatment and tariff reductions for Indian goods at Chah-bahar. There is now talk of a rail line from Bamyan in Afghanistan that will follow this road route down to Chah-bahar.

[devesh]

^^^^^^ There may be problems with this. Rumor has it that the US Senate may want ultimate approval. Noooobody is happy with unending support for Afganistan. We all realize if we leave the terrorists will be back charge, *but* if they ever mess with us again we will bomb them to eternity. Guaranteed.

big talk. they already messed with US in the biggest possible way by killing off 3000 civilians on a single day, in the matter of a few hours. the foulest act of massacre of American citizens in all of US history.

and a mere 10 years later, they are at the negotiating table, and US is more than happy to talk "peace".

US "guarantees" don't mean much to the Afghans. least of all, to the Taliban. they indulged in a 10-year staring match, and US blinked first.

[JE Menon]

>>

big talk. they already messed with US in the biggest possible way by killing off 3000 civilians on a single day, in the matter of a few hours. the foulest act of massacre of American citizens in all of US history.

It's worse. The Afghans had nothing to do with this. The Talibs are more than happy slaughtering their own, in their own country. That's the key. And that's all they want to continue doing.

It took the ISI's ambition to transform that into 9/11, by inviting and ensuring space for Al Qaida in Afghanistan. At best, the Afghans allowed the Al Qaida to take refuge and plot terror on their territory under duress, applied by Pakistan.

The US then took careful aim and hit the wrong target. That was not a mistake. It was a deliberate act of vengeance wreaked on the wrong people. This was also done not because they did not know who the masterminds were, but because they were playing "balance of power" still... They didn't want to "lose" Pakistan. And out of that rigid thinking we have reached where we are now.

However, there is a faint trickle of light at the end of the tunnel. And here Obama has been absolutely fu(king right, on opening up to Iran. If the US administration has done ANYTHING right over the last decade of foreign policy, it is this. And, of course, the flat out refusal to end drone strikes.

[Lilo]

Like many other regular readers of Foreign Policy's AfPak Channel, I was surprised by the announcement that it is to be rebranded as the South Asia Channel. But while my friend Ziad Haider received a quantum of solace from ‘AfPak' losing its conceptual toehold in Washington, I had instinctive misgivings about the adoption of ‘South Asia.' What exactly does that phrase connote today? Is the term in any way useful? Or is it so poorly defined -- culturally, politically, geographically, and bureaucratically -- as to make it problematic in its own way? In fact, beyond one rather ineffectual international organization and a handful of sporting events, does ‘South Asia' even exist ..?

....

A real concern is that a conceptual resurgence of ‘South Asia' -- especially as an outgrowth of ‘AfPak' -- could be accompanied by the conscious or subconscious rehyphenation of India and Pakistan, and the prolonged side-lining of other states in the region. As the anonymous genius behind the Twitter handle @majorlyp has caustically written:

Indians are Indians and Pakistanis when caught in tight situations (like in Airports) are Indians too. In other circumstances they are South Asians. Being "South Asian" offers many advantages. Such as an overwhelming numerical advantage.

Example: When faced with the question "Is radicalization a problem"? South Asians can reply with a straight face "Only 170 million, or less than 10% of the South Asians are radicalized". Which sounds entirely reasonable

.

The author writes in somewhat cruel jest, of course, but like the best parody, there is more than a grain of uncomfortable truth in what he says. Will U.S. discourse related to South Asia come to be dominated by the problems of terrorism, Islamist extremism, nuclear proliferation, and anti-Americanism at the expense of the incredible opportunities and challenges associated with dynamic economic growth, raucous democracy, immense social and cultural diversity, and broad support for a U.S.-led international system? Let's hope not

http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/20 ... asia_exist

[ramana]

If FP wants to be deluded let them be.

[Paul]

In Jihadic lore, a Ghazwa-e-Hind lashkar supposed to rise in the Khorasan region to conquer the subcontinent.

This region is curiously corroborated with the Af-Pak region as mentioned in western literature. The Kabul-Ghazni-Kandahar regions were referred to as Khorasan in medeival times. Even Guru Nanak has some Dohas mentioning this.

Interesting as how time goes around in a circle.

[Prem]

In Jihadic lore, a Ghazwa-e-Hind lashkar supposed to rise in the Khorasan region to conquer the subcontinent. This region is curiously corroborated with the Af-Pak region as mentioned in western literature. The Kabul-Ghazni-Kandahar regions were referred to as Khorasan in medeival times. Even Guru Nanak has some Dohas mentioning this. Interesting as how time goes around in a circle.

Did the lore mention anything about 200 to400 Kt Nuke riding on a Missle from Jallandhar to Vapourize their Tattua ?

[devesh]

http://www.siasat.com/english/news/us-a ... ne-strikes

US army halts 'risky' shipments from Afghanistan after Pak protests over drone strikes

The United States military has halted its ground cargo shipments from Afghanistan via Pakistan after protests over drone strikes posed risks to its drivers.

Pakistanis have blocked the US main supply route to Afghanistan in north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, and protestors have been harassing truck drivers and turning back vehicles carrying Nato provisions, the BBC reports.

Pentagon spokesman Mark Wright said that this would affect outgoing shipments of equipment and other goods from US units on Afghan soil, but the deliveries could be resumed "in the near future."

The other crossings in south-west Balochistan province has not been affected by a blockade, the report added.

Meanwhile, Washington has already redirected many supplies bypassing Pakistan to reach Afghan soil.

the note about Balochistan being open in interesting.

[SSridhar]

Karzai to Renew Request for Lethal Military Aid from India - Praveen Swami, The Hindu

President Hamid Karzai will renew his request for Indian supplies of lethal military equipment during a scheduled visit to India later this week, highly placed Afghan diplomatic sources told The Hindu . The equipment include 105-millimeter howitzers,An-32 aircraft and Mi-17 helicopters,

In a strategic partnership agreement signed in 2011, Afghanistan’s first with any foreign country, India promised to assist in “training, equipping and capacity-building programmes for [the] Afghan National Security Forces.”

However, New Delhi has stonewalled Mr. Karzai’s requests, first revealed by The Hindu in December 2012, saying there are contractual issues to be resolved with suppliers in Russia.

“I think it is high time for New Delhi to take a call,” says India’s former Ambassador to Afghanistan, Vivek Katju. “Procrastinating on a request for help from a friend in need sends an awful message.”

Military worries

Sources familiar with the Afghan military’s capacity-development programme say the country’s request is intended to bridge several key gaps.

India has so far agreed to supply two Cheetah light helicopters, which are expected to be delivered in May. However, there is no clarity on when the other aircraft will be delivered.

Earlier this year, the Pentagon terminated contracts of badly-needed Mi-17s from a Russian firm, as the supplier was also providing the equipment to Syria — thus violating United States sanctions directed at President Bashar al-Asad’s regime. India-provided helicopters could part fill a gap that is affecting troop mobility and casualty evacuation.

Afghanistan also wants India to have six ageing An-32s refitted in Ukraine, where the Indian Air Force is now upgrading its own fleet.

Afghanistan has received two of four modern C-130 transport aircraft from the United States, where crew are undergoing training. There are concerns, though, that the country will find it hard to service and maintain the expensive aircraft. Earlier, 20 Italian-made C27A, purchased for over $500 million, had to be scrapped after problems with maintenance and spare parts proved impossible to resolve.

Finally, Afghanistan wants hand-me-down A2.A18 105-milimetre howitzer, a robust and rugged weapon India has used for years. India is in the process of phasing out its 105-milimetre and 130-milimetre with state-of-the-art United States-made M.777 howitzers.

The Afghan army now has an estimated 84 second-hand A2.A18s — donated by Slovakia and Bosnia — but needs greater numbers for its expanding mountain counter-insurgency units.

Mounting worries

Mr. Karzai’s renewed request comes among mounting worries over the future of Afghanistan’s security. NATO’s troop strength, an official for the western military alliance told The Hindu , is scheduled to decline from the 60,000 soldiers who will be present at the time of elections scheduled in April, to 20,000 in September. It will drop further, to a still-to-be determined level of between 8,000-12,000 troops after that, serving in what NATO describes as a “residual support mission.”

The Afghan National Security Force’s strength, on the basis of commitments agreed to with a consortium of international donors, is expanding to 3,52,000, for which there are funding commitments running to 2017.

Funding for the Afghan forces, however, is contingent on the signing of a Bilateral Security Arrangement (BSA), which will provide a legal framework for United States troops staying on in the country after 2014. NATO is expected to conclude a separate Status of Forces Agreement once the BSA is signed.

Last month, Mr. Karzai summoned the Loya Jirga, or general assembly of elders, to discuss the agreed text of the BSA. The Loya Jirga approved the BSA, but the President still refused to sign, saying he wants further commitments to Afghan stability from the U.S.

“Frankly, a NATO official told The Hindu , “the deadline for this is February, 2014. If the BSA is not signed by the end of that month, when NATO Defence Ministers are scheduled to meet, there will be questions not just about continued military assistance to Afghanistan, but all aid.”

Eminent scholar Ali Jalali says, “I think there is a broad consensus both among Mr. Karzai’s opponents and supporters that the BSA must be signed. “The failure to do so is creating deep concerns about Afghanistan’s future among the country’s people.”

[vishvak]

Or India can further assist as per 2011 agreement and buy these arms from international market instead including from Russians.

[ramana]

When there are mounting worries over future of Afghanistan, India should do its bit to reduce those worries by ensuring a post Karzai regime is capable of surviving. Besdies India has poured in $11 billion of aid and investment whch need to be protected.

To be a minion for the US which is trying to shake down the lame duck Karzai govt into siging the BSA is outrageous. The UPA is acting like a handmaiden for the US skaedownof Karzai forgetting Indian interests in Afghanistan.
India can gift those 105mm howitzers and other supplies as gesture of support for Afghanistan. India had done it before to the Northern Alliance so there is precedent.

[SSridhar]

Abdul Ghani Baradar in a comatose state - Praveen Swami, The Hindu

So, Pakistan has ensured that Baradar, who stepped out of the ISI-drawn redlines and wanted to have independent dialogue with Karzai, would be made useless and have done so.

Late last month, top Afghan peace negotiator Salahuddin Rabbani arrived in Islamabad to meet a man he hoped would change the course of history.

Access

Following years of pushing, Pakistan’s new government had agreed to arrange access to Mullah Abdul Gani Baradar, long-incarcerated Taliban second-in-command.

Mr. Rabbani, sources close to him say, was flown to Karachi in a military helicopter, and driven to a safe house on the fringes of the city.

Mr. Rabbani, sources close to him say, found the man he’d hoped held the keys to peace laid out near-comatose on a bed, unable to put together a coherent sentence.

Now, the bedridden Taliban Number Two has emerged as the prize at the centre of a high-stakes diplomatic poker game involving Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States.

The deal, three highly placed Afghan government sources told The Hindu , involved Mr. Baradar being freed to open a political dialogue with Kabul.

In return, a high-ranking Minister would sign the long-delayed Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the U.S., allowing Western troops to stay on after 2014, and ensuring aid flow.

Afghanistan Interior Minister Umar Daudzai, earlier Ambassador to Pakistan and one of Mr. Karzai’s most trusted aides, has been charged with back-channel negotiations to ensure the BSA is signed before late-February — the deadline laid down by the U.S.

Mr. Daudzai, a source familiar with the negotiations said, in the meantime wants Mr. Baradar freed, leading to a meeting in mid-January with Afghanistan’s Higher Peace Council, led by Mr. Rabbani.

Then, Mr. Baradar be allowed to travel to relocate overseas, signing on to negotiations with the Kabul government.

Security pact deadlock

Mr. Karzai has refused to sign the BSA, defying the wishes of a Loya Jirga, or tribal assembly, as well as both political allies and opponents. In a recent interview to Le Monde diplomatique , he complained of a “lack of visible and genuine effort on behalf of the U.S. to help us with the peace process.”

The President added that he wanted the war against the Taliban “taken to terrorist sanctuaries, where they are trained and nurtured.”

In September, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had promised to free Mr. Baradar. In a later visit to Kabul, though, Mr. Sharif reportedly told Afghan interlocutors that he could only do so with the consent of the U.S.

The change in position, a member of Mr. Karzai’s staff said, fuelled the President’s suspicions that the U.S. might be seeking to hand power to Pakistan-backed Taliban hardliners, who want Afghanistan’s Constitution scrapped.

Both Pakistan and the U.S. have backed a separate group of the Taliban led by Tayyeb Agha, who is believed to have close links with the ISI. Though a Taliban office in the Qatari city of Doha was shut down after angry Afghan protests in the summer, the group continues to operate out of the city’s Four Seasons Hotel.

Uncertain prospects

It is unclear, though, Mr. Daudzai’s plan will eventually bear fruit.

Efforts to engage Mr. Baradar in dialogue are not new. The Afghan President and Mr. Baradar, both Popalzai Pashtuns, share clan ties. Mr. Baradar is reputed to have helped arrange the burial of Mr. Karzai’s father in Kandahar, then under the Taliban rule. Mr. Karzai’s extended family is also thought to have met Mr. Baradar in 2006-2007.

Mr. Daudzai met Mr. Baradar in 2012, in a brief Inter-Services Intelligence-brokered meeting, where the Taliban chief is believed to have said there was no point in two slaves talking — referring to his relationship with Pakistan, and the Afghan government’s relationship with the U.S.There is no consensus, though, on whether Mr. Baradar has enough heft with the current Taliban leadership to push through a deal.

Aga Jan Motasim, a top Taliban commander, who is also Mullah Omar’s son-in-law, survived a near-successful assassination attempt after criticising the organisation’s anti-talks position.

Dialogue process

Moreover, the Taliban’s top command — including the organisation’s chief, Mullah Muhammad Omar, as well as Akhtar Mansour, Zakir Qayyum,Hafiz Abdul Majeed and Sirajuddin Haqqani — is from clans that have historically competed for power with Mr. Baradar and Mr. Karzai’s Popalzai.

“The President is willing to take the chance,” a Minister close to him said.

“He wants a dialogue process with the Taliban to be his legacy when he retires in April.”