Re: Islamism & Islamophobia Abroad - News & Analysis
Posted: 04 Jul 2014 20:40
@ JEM
Starting from the premise that there are no permanent friends among nations only permanent national interests. Iran (Shia/ Persian) and GCC (Sunni/ Arab) will never be our friends. I would like to see the neighborhood in a dynamic equilibrium with neither side making much headway. Sort of status quo of seesaw movements (Iraq stabilized--> Syria destabilized with GCC support--> Assadfighting back in Syria with Hizbollah and Irani support--> ISIS rising in Iraq, and a possible counter movement).
Anything that breaks this gridlock is detrimental to our interests.
Iran being out of good books of US is good for us, we have higher leverage if we can use it (Cheaper and assured oil, access to market, access to C. Asia, natural counterweight to Pak). If Iran gets leverage with US (read easing of sanctions and trade restrictions, and a movement towards the US), it changes the current conditions. Then we have a Iran pro-US (with whom as a large country we will never have major alignment of interests), our leverage weakens. Till the time we are significantly stronger GCC states will be able to easily balance our demands vs. Paki's (cheaper oil, worker visas, business interests and support to terror). At this moment our ability to deal from higher ground with GCC is limited. Also, Pak with higher involvement in GCC militaries, intelligence (through deputations, retired personnel serving there), common religion will be gain there.
All in all, India needs time to grow stronger and build a robust economy, till taht time, the more the rest of the world is caught up in their own messes, better is it for us.
What is your opinion on this? Are there other factors which we need to look at?
Starting from the premise that there are no permanent friends among nations only permanent national interests. Iran (Shia/ Persian) and GCC (Sunni/ Arab) will never be our friends. I would like to see the neighborhood in a dynamic equilibrium with neither side making much headway. Sort of status quo of seesaw movements (Iraq stabilized--> Syria destabilized with GCC support--> Assadfighting back in Syria with Hizbollah and Irani support--> ISIS rising in Iraq, and a possible counter movement).
Anything that breaks this gridlock is detrimental to our interests.
Iran being out of good books of US is good for us, we have higher leverage if we can use it (Cheaper and assured oil, access to market, access to C. Asia, natural counterweight to Pak). If Iran gets leverage with US (read easing of sanctions and trade restrictions, and a movement towards the US), it changes the current conditions. Then we have a Iran pro-US (with whom as a large country we will never have major alignment of interests), our leverage weakens. Till the time we are significantly stronger GCC states will be able to easily balance our demands vs. Paki's (cheaper oil, worker visas, business interests and support to terror). At this moment our ability to deal from higher ground with GCC is limited. Also, Pak with higher involvement in GCC militaries, intelligence (through deputations, retired personnel serving there), common religion will be gain there.
All in all, India needs time to grow stronger and build a robust economy, till taht time, the more the rest of the world is caught up in their own messes, better is it for us.
What is your opinion on this? Are there other factors which we need to look at?