India-Russia: News & Analysis

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 18 Oct 2016 11:13

Russia is paying a price for joining the Chinese Harem.

They lost the Military aircraft transport market, lost the MPA market, could not get us to buy their BMP3s. Doubt if we will buy their Subs either.

After the exercises with Pakistan, it will be difficult for them to convince the army to buy the Armatas....Their is a silver lining in every cloud!!!!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Oct 2016 12:33

ASs explained,after China used its "veto" in favour of Pak,there was little that Russia could do.In fact it is a bl;essing in disguise at it has nailed China's inimical colours to the mast.The Modi regime must now treat China as its most dangerous enemy and Pak as its westernmost province.
Anything less will spell disaster for us in the longterm.

What we must now do is to quickly seal the deals on the table for the FGFA,etc.,plus further cooperation on the 6 SSNs to be built (at speed).The second Akula with VLS capability and some Yasen tech will be a huge boost to the IN.I would even go as far as saying that a third much modified Akula SSGN (or even a new boat), is needed,as our own homebuilt SSNs will take at least 7 years before the first arrives. China is churning out its N-subs at a very fast rate. We can only match their numbers in proportion by leasing more N-subs from Russia.

sum · Post by **sum** » 18 Oct 2016 13:33

ASs explained,after China used its "veto" in favour of Pak,there was little that Russia could do.In fact it is a bl;essing in disguise at it has nailed China's inimical colours to the mast

Errr, what?

Somehow, Russia escapes unscatched even in this matter?

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 18 Oct 2016 13:40

Philip wrote:ASs explained,after China used its "veto" in favour of Pak,there was little that Russia could do.In fact it is a bl;essing in disguise at it has nailed China's inimical colours to the mast.

C'Mon PhilipJi, for once acknowledge that Russian fell short of supporting the country which they claim is a privileged ally. Even the MUTUs here are not so defensive about US actions, which are perfidious to say the least.

Putin let India down- as simple as that.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 18 Oct 2016 14:10

True. Russia not coming out to support India and kowtowing China has come as a major set back for India. Our time tested friend Ru turning away is a worrying news! http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 907602.cms

what is the point of giving multi million dollar arms deal to Ru then?

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 18 Oct 2016 14:48

IndraD wrote:True. Russia not coming out to support India and kowtowing China has come as a major set back for India. Our time tested friend Ru turning away is a worrying news! http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 907602.cms

what is the point of giving multi million dollar arms deal to Ru then?

This is perfect for increasing surgical strikes against Pakistan. This means Russia and China have no say when India strikes Pak.

Entire LOC and IB with Pak should be made hot.

Every month there should be surgical strike on Pak border.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Oct 2016 15:59

MEA has clarified that BRICS final text did not name any specific country for supporting terrorism but spoke about it in the general sense , Even Russia wanted Syria issue to be name specifically but that was again blocked by using general ME issue and terrorism etc As a matter of policy BRICS does not want to name any spefic country but put across larger idea

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Oct 2016 16:01

svinayak wrote:This is perfect for increasing surgical strikes against Pakistan. This means Russia and China have no say when India strikes Pak.

Entire LOC and IB with Pak should be made hot.

Every month there should be surgical strike on Pak border.

We should just raid and occupy POK for good , it is any way our land that is stolen by Pakistan.

All this peace meal surgical strike wont do any good as far as terror or terror related violence goes but taking over entire POK will put a plug on it.

Any country who is our friend will support us and if they arnt and provide lip service we will come to know.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 18 Oct 2016 16:11

Austin wrote:MEA has clarified that BRICS final text did not name any specific country for supporting terrorism but spoke about it in the general sense , Even Russia wanted Syria issue to be name specifically but that was again blocked by using general ME issue and terrorism etc As a matter of policy BRICS does not want to name any spefic country but put across larger idea

thanks very much Austin! That was much needed.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 18 Oct 2016 17:12

Austin wrote:
zoverian wrote:
any inputs on the maximum range by which it may be increase...
DRDO has put out in presentation which showed Brahmos flying at 18 km altitude ( compared to present 15 km ) can obtain a range of 600 km

My personal guess is that Brahmos is 1000+ km range missile if it flies hi-hi-hi-glide flight path.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Oct 2016 17:58

Gyan wrote:
Austin wrote:
DRDO has put out in presentation which showed Brahmos flying at 18 km altitude ( compared to present 15 km ) can obtain a range of 600 km
My personal guess is that Brahmos is 1000+ km range missile if it flies hi-hi-hi-glide flight path.

No way . You will need a missile of size of Kh-32 to fly at 1000 Km in hi-hi profile

Onyx range as mentioned by Russian sources are at 500-600 km in hi-hi profile , 300-350 km in Hi-lo and 120-150 km in lo lo profile

Even DRDO own presentation says its 600 km in Hi-hi profile ,So brahmos/onyx profile should match once the range is extended.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Oct 2016 18:07

Russia and India may set up joint production of Il-114-300 plane

http://tass.com/economy/907156?_ga=1.65 ... 1462511035

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 18 Oct 2016 18:25

Sum sir, surely you know the lengths that Philip saar is ready to go to protect his beloved

Sample this gem for instance

A million Indians on its eastern border with China would also aid in securing a defensive shield against the Hans!

Link to the post - viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3689&p=2049543&hili ... n#p2049543

sum wrote:
ASs explained,after China used its "veto" in favour of Pak,there was little that Russia could do.In fact it is a bl;essing in disguise at it has nailed China's inimical colours to the mast
Errr, what?

Somehow, Russia escapes unscatched even in this matter?

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 18 Oct 2016 18:52

From Arindham Chaudhuri's FB page:

As Modi makes up slightly for his previous mistake of snubbing Putin, am happy to share my October edition editorial from "The Sunday Indian"
AS PUTIN BRINGS ON COLD WAR - PHASE 2, INDIA MUST NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF EXCESSIVE HEROISM VIS A VIS PAKISTAN
I will first talk a bit about Russia before coming to India-Pakistan.
Exactly about a year back, Russia started its war on the ISIS in Syria! That was what the world needed desperately. Almost like the Cold War era, Russia took America head on without caring... smashing the USA-backed extremists in Syria, while additionally destroying ISIS; bombing them in a manner last seen maybe 70 years back. From state-of-the-art bombers and missiles to absolutely brilliant sea-to-land missile attacks from a distance of 1500 km to deploying the 'Blazing Sun' – heavy flamethrower 24 barrel missile launchers capable of flattening eight city blocks, not just by sheer heat but also by sucking up the oxygen in that area and creating a near vacuum – Russia spared no effort.
Expectably, after years of near silence and efforts to demean Russian existence, the Western media has woken up to its power. And the West and its media have unleashed a huge campaign to make Russia look evil as a way to downplay their heroics.
The truth, however, is a bit different. The truth is that the world's most inhumane and dangerous terror organization, ISIS, is almost destroyed; and it's thanks only and only to Russia, which achieved this almost by the end of the first month of strikes itself. And now, ISIS is comprehensively on the run. During this phase, Iran and Lebanon have joined hands with Russia. Putin has been called Sheikh Putin in Iraq, as more and more middle eastern nations warm up to Russia leaving the suckers – America – behind. The NATO forces silently stepped away and virtually grounded their jets, so that by mistake they don't end up crashing with Russian jets, in fear of a World War III-like situation – a situation that they realize, they are bound to lose. And the truth is that they haven't seen the kind of weapons that Russia is using with precision and determination, as Russians show how a war against terrorism of the worst and most shocking kinds can be destroyed in a matter of days. Obviously calling into question what was America doing for more than two years spending 10 million dollars a day "fighting ISIS" while the IS militants chopped off hundreds of heads and made videos for the Facebook propagation of their heinous crimes (not to mention the additional embarrassment of the US dropping a bomb on a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan).
I have always believed that eventually, religious extremism of all kinds which create terrorism and deaths, will be bombed out, because the religious extremists will never realize they are wrong, and therefore carry on with their imbecile beliefs. And this time, the bombing has been started by Russia.
For far too long, US and CIA have been responsible for creating Al-Qaeda and similar extremist outfits in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Sadly, Russia remained a spectator while China decided not to interfere and concentrate on making money. Thus leaving USA with a free hand at spreading terrorism of the imperialistic kind and war mongering around the world – from Latin America to Middle East. That's why I always favoured the balance of power of the Cold War era over the post-1989 era of one-sided greed-driven war mongering of the US-NATO combine. Syria is a typical case of the US spreading war to dislodge a government not to its liking, like they have done endless number of times in the past – in Latin America, Africa, Iraq etc... – and the sad part is that the US has farcically fought these wars in the name of democracy, while in reality, post the war, they have put a devilish dictator in power as an American stooge and disappeared after getting their required contracts.
This war had ended up with Russia destroying ISIS as well as other so called moderate militant groups (those terrorists that the US backs are called moderate). And that's where the hurt has been for USA. While they wanted to dislodge the present regime in Syria with the help of their so called moderate terrorists, Russia has not just destroyed ISIS spectacularly but also the US backed moderate terrorists. And the whole world became a spectator. At first, the US tried to resent – even used the Olympics to humiliate Russia by banning their players unfairly... then finally, they thought of having a joint mission to save face. However, they soon realized joining hands with Russia would show they failed. So they backed out of it and started their usual campaign of painting Russians as devils, trying to cite some bombings that had killed civilians. As if the Americans have never made mistakes. In fact, they were the ones who, in a planned manner, nuked the Japanese. It was no mistake.
Now, the Russians have called back the relatives of their government officials from other countries in preparation of a possible World War and has deployed nuclear launchers on the borders of Poland and Lithuania; and none other than Gorbachev has described the situation as dangerous. What has thus started in effect is Cold War Phase 2!
To my mind, it's not yet a scary situation, but of course a situation that needs to be studied intelligently. Yes, in all probabilities, a full fledged war between NATO and Russia wouldn't really happen because of two reasons. One, because Russia has almost won the war in Syria and the NATO forces have been on the back foot; so they are unlikely to do anything now. This is the same war that the US has been fighting for more than two years by shamefully arming "moderate extremists" of Syria, as if arming them earlier and creating an unmanageable breakaway faction in the form of ISIS was not enough or arming "moderate extremists" in Afghanistan and creating Al-Qaeda and Osama weren't good enough! And here, Russia comes and finishes it off almost in a few weeks! It only shows that USA was busier making money playing war games instead of finishing ISIS.
The second reason I believe a third World War like situation won't happen is because all the NATO countries including UK realize very well that they have no military capability to really go into a war with Russia. Last year, I was reading regularly that Russian jets had been getting into British airspace to test British reaction times, creating total shock in the British Parliament. And yet, the consensus was that UK really can't do anything as their limited number of jets aren't swift and equipped enough to take on Russian jets; and their ground tanks are absolutely rusting! Not just the UK, it's the same story with the Germans and French with their military equipment on a rusting mode and military recruitments throughout the West at their lowest. To add to the American and Western fear is the fact that in case of a war, it's inevitable that China will join hands with Russia. That would mean a double blow. Firstly, through a grinding halt to the production of all US goods being produced in China; and secondly, through a phenomenal addition to the Russian might.
So the question of a Russia versus NATO war really doesn't arise. Actually, I bet Obama must be cursing the day they stupidly made Putin stand isolated – a few meters away from them – for the G-8 group leaders' photograph and put those childish sanctions on Russia. Personally, I am sure that's the day that Putin had decided to change the track of modern history and remind the world that the only real power that exists in the world today is Russia. America might be having almost similar weapons, but it can't afford to go to war as Americans can't afford body bags. Specially given their current, growing, massive internal unrest with the blacks, the last thing they would want are body bags which essentially have black soldiers laying down their lives. Russia, on the other hand, has no such fear and a massive and ready ground army. And to win wars, a ground army is most essential. Add to that the chances of the Chinese army joining hands with Russia, and what you have is a certain defeat for anyone taking them on.
I call this "changing the track of modern history" because more than stopping ISIS, this Russian action was perhaps a necessity to stop the unbridled spread of war mongering for ulterior motives. At times, a war is the only way to keep peace. Not the type of greed driven ones that USA fights for. But the type of non-exploitative peace driven ones that Russia has focused upon in Syria and the USSR used to threaten with earlier. That's the way the erstwhile USSR maintained global peace till 1989, and that's how I hope Russia will now start a new era of global peace... through Cold War Phase 2! The entire era between 1945 to 1990 was the most peaceful in the last hundred years. Only because of the Cold War, Americans dared not mess up with USSR.
And that's what is needed to get the bloodsucking oil-thirsty greedy, American imperialists in control. The most embarrassing blow to the US policy – thanks to Russian intervention exposing American fraudulent war mongering – was dealt within the first fortnight of Russian onslaught, with the Pentagon announcing that it is ending its $500 million program to train and equip Syrian rebels. I am happy that after 25 years, someone has again shown spine. Putin may not be great for people of Russia, but it seems he will end up being great for the world at large. And the good part is Iran, Syria and Russia joining hands in the totally well planned and coordinated attacks, with Iraq already seeking an alliance. All the countries being targeted by the American military, infrastructure and oil companies for the last 25 years are coming together.
However, what could have been potentially a good news for India is now becoming a potential added danger. Any attack on terrorism should have meant that eventually, the US-backed Pakistan would be careful – to whom the greedy Americans also want to sell nuclear technology. And the revival of Russia should have made Pakistan extremely cautious in their approach to spreading any kind of future terrorism in India. After all, it's thanks to USSR's supply of tanks that almost overnight, we had taken the upper hand in the 1965 war with Pakistan that led to the eventual cease fire, giving India the clear moral victory.
But it looks that what could have been an awesome news for India is not so awesome because of our current government's strange priorities. We have decided to cozy up to America, who would never really help us militarily. Their commitment is only for NATO countries, stretching maximum to South Korea at the most. It's the Russians who have not just been our support system during wars but also been there for our internal growth, giving us steel factories and building up our infrastructure. So I was personally shocked at the way the current Indian government treated Putin the last time he was in India, and instead embraced the USA, leading eventually to the first ever joint military exercise between Russia and Pakistan. I was more surprised when recently, India even issued Russia a warning almost, that they shouldn't cosy up with Pakistan. Shocked, because USA was never our friend, I repeat. For years, US supported Pakistan and their terrorism. They didn't even secure the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan despite past speculations. By changing friends, we have now brought Pakistan closer to Russia in addition to their existing proximity to China.
And these are the two countries that we should have been closest to and made a triangle of friendship. If India wants to play the role of a global leader, it must not cosy up to Americans by playing stupid navy war games with them and irritate China or humiliate Putin by showing him as second class in comparison to Obama. I always say that it would make the greatest alliance of power, peace and civilization that the world has ever seen – the alliance between Russia, China and India. They are our neighbors and if they join hands with Pakistan, I do feel it's not just a huge opportunity lost but a potential huge stress for India. And during such times, the last thing India should do is try extra heroics with Pakistan and humiliate them in public. I am personally quite unhappy at the excessive celebrations around our surgical strikes in order to fan nationalism in this country... Firstly, any kind of war is bad; so celebrations are an immature act. I am proud of the Indian army and their capabilities but totally against imbecile showing off. For you are not doing it against a normal nation that's 5000 miles away... You are at war with your next door neighbour, a country which is in a totally broken down unstable state and has nothing to lose in any case. Add to that the fact that they are a completely irresponsible power, almost in competition with North Korea, and with nuclear capabilities. My thoughts: it's a bad idea to humiliate them. They must be handled more strategically for it wouldn't take anything for Pakistan (like North Korea) to bomb anyone... Push them to the corner and they can do anything...
In fact, the truth is that today, behind all the calculated posturing and assumption that they won't hit back, our government is quite tense thinking of the 'what if they hit back' situation... and actually hoping it will be through terrorist attacks and not military attacks... As I tell CEOs in my workshops, it's like you are the boss and you can shout around.. all good... But don't push the unstable fellow too much. If he gets up, shouts back, slaps or hits a paper weight on your head and leaves, and you are on the floor. You might tomorrow get him arrested... fire him... anything... But the story of you being slapped and being on the floor will go on forever in the organization.. And it's you who will have to finally leave the place... Pakistan's nuclear policy clearly states that irrespective of where they are hit from, in case of a nuclear attack, they will first hit India. And that means Delhi and Mumbai. We might hit and destroy Pakistan, but with two of our cities wiped off and millions dead, it's the end of our growth story... And it doesn't seem like a great idea to me. Modi's Balochistan policy was far more intelligent. Let Pakistan break down from within, and by then use your friendship with USA to secure their nuclear weapons and take them away. Pakistan would wither away. India should never let a broken down underdeveloped neighbour get equal status due to false heroics and political gains. It should just quietly win back Russia, forge a relationship with China and aim for further development. Our development and growth is the best answer to Pakistan's terrorism.
I end by saying that India must not lose the friendship of literally the most powerful and non exploitative nation, Russia, at this juncture of its proud journey to global prosperity and dominance, in its excitement to get a few votes and cheers from some ill-educated citizens. Try removing poverty, giving education and health to all sincerely, and votes will flow automatically. If it doesn't, even then it doesn't matter. A strategic mistake for the sake of excessive heroism could ruin the huge advantage we have gained since independence through our democracy and development.
Note : This editorial has some parts from my previous article on Putin vs. ISIS

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 18 Oct 2016 19:13

http://swarajyamag.com/insta/russia-poi ... oil-market

Russia And India Poised To Become Major Player In Asian Oil Market

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Oct 2016 22:21

Revealing to me .........

Russia mum on Pak terror, India stung

Bheeshma · Post by **Bheeshma** » 18 Oct 2016 22:24

Austin wrote:MEA has clarified that BRICS final text did not name any specific country for supporting terrorism but spoke about it in the general sense , Even Russia wanted Syria issue to be name specifically but that was again blocked by using general ME issue and terrorism etc As a matter of policy BRICS does not want to name any spefic country but put across larger idea

Good. India need not interfere in west asia unless our interests are threatened. Syria whether good or bad is of no consequence to us. Israel and Gulf states are economically and militarily more important.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Oct 2016 22:33

Russia-India oil deal challenges Saudi supremacy in Asia

https://www.rt.com/business/363024-deal ... st-market/

The $13 billion sale of India's Essar Oil to Russia's Rosneft and other investors, gives Russia access to the most promising and fastest growing market. The deal also challenges Middle East producers who provide nearly two-thirds of India’s imported energy.

he agreement, signed on Saturday, is the biggest foreign acquisition in India. Rosneft is purchasing a 49 percent stake in Essar, with another 49 percent sold to a consortium of the Netherlands-based commodity trading house Trafigura and a Moscow-based private investment company United Capital Partners.

India is expected to become the fastest growing oil consumer through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency.

The deal includes the sale of nearly 2,700 Essar Oil filling stations and allows Rosneft access to a market of 1.3 billion people which imports 80 percent of its crude requirements.

“India will be the most important product-growth market over the next 25 years, making it important to Russia,” said Neil Beveridge, a Hong Kong-based analyst at investment advisory Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

Another critical aspect for Russia was beating out rival suitors from Iran and Saudi Arabia to buy Essar.

“This would be in response to Saudi Arabia’s attempts to penetrate the European market, which is dominated by Russian oil,” said Abhishek Kumar, an analyst at InterfaxEnergy’s Global Gas Analytics in London, stressing that the acquisition would bring Russia greater influence in the Asian market.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Oct 2016 06:08

NRao wrote:Revealing to me .........

Russia mum on Pak terror, India stung

I think Pak has lost control of maal.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Oct 2016 10:03

Krasnodar from height

http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/85011/

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 20 Oct 2016 18:34

So, India's taller than mountain deeper than ocean friend, along with napakis tallel than mountain and deepel then ocean friend, colluded as comrade-in-arms to not antagonize napakis. Well, the babucracy learnt hopefully right lessons from this and many other episodes from all typhoon, hurricane, rain, shine, freeze, snow, friend's behaviour. Hope they didn't pick up wrong lessons and went into sentimental mode to write much better love letter to India's all-weather friend come next Valentine's day. Sometimes, one goes to expensive school to learn basic foundational courses.
Well, the pathetic nature of babucracy as exemplified by sharm-el-sheikh to phoren minister reading portugal speech were all indicators of the rot that had set in the establishment. With respect to dealing with Russia, the babucracy is still in its slumber. If there is one thing that is overrated, it is the babucracy.

The drug addict is salivating at all the prospect of immediate needs being supplied the dealer for the moment. Some are more ecstatic that designer drugs are also offered to quench the addiction. Well, the de-addiction program just got much more expensive, and babucracy will enroll into more 101 classes paying more premium. The addict is not even acknowledging the problem!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Oct 2016 00:22

Ex-Soviets Still Singing

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Oct 2016 10:57

I have outlined how an Indo-Russian synergy could see our skilled citizens work in droves in Russia helping its declining population exploit their natural reserves worth trillions,sustainable for centuries.Indian industry could find a huge market in Russia so far dependent upon the EU which wants to punish it (Germany in particular) economically.India could sell to Russia dairy products like cheese,foodstuffs,commodities,etc.,which it used to do during the days of the USSR,when Rupee-Rouble trade was at its highest peak.

More than the defence deals the Rosneft buy into Indian oil has had an electrifying effect internationally.It shows that we have finally wised up to reducing dependence upon ME oil using Russia and Iran (first shipment of strat. oil reserves to MLore cavern recently).The extra N-reactors at KKNPP also show that despite Russia adhering to Indian Liability clauses,France and the US have not! More so their costs/unit of power are almost double than that of the Ru N-plants.Even though the new units at KKNPP are costlier than the firrst,the unit rate of power will be the same. It makes sound eco sense to give Russia even more N-plant power projects to teach the west that they can';t take us for a sweet ride as Snake-OIl Singh had promised them!

Coming back to the defence/strat aspect,our MEA was asinine to expect that at a BRICS summit we could armtwist the members into adopting an anti-Pak declaration,especially a hostile China,Pak's all-weather iron friend".It smacks of insecurity and inferiority. "Please Uncle Putin,Uncle XI,tell off those dirty Pakis not to throw stones at me...!"
Simply disgraceful.India's surgical strikes were good enough,we don't need anyone else providing us with a "push".It demeans ourselves. Enough was said at the N and the Paki actions speak loudest with the international community who barring China,have stood up for India.We made our point very clear at the UN,the best forum for doing so.Mr.Modi's "Mothership of terror" phrase was splendid.That should've been enough.The world has heard us.

Secondly,the depth of our defence relationship with Russia has to be properly understood.Much is in the shadows.The fact that a Ru sub rescue ship allegedly helped us during the Arihant sea trials (apart from sustained Ru support for our N-sub programme),shows that Russia is fully behind us in assisting us develop our own ,independent nuclear triad,while our so-called bum-chum,the US ,is unwilling to give us N-reactor tech for a carrier! Has the US ever offered us Tomahawk missiles or an LA class SSN? NO.It is Russia that is now giving us the ability to extend the range of BMos and possibly the Klub/Kalibir series too,so that the reach of the missile is at least doubled,a v.significant fact as even these missiles could theoretically carry a mini-nuke warhead increasing the number of platforms of our N-triad.

With the FGFA and other bleedin' edge deals in the making,Russia is enabling us to maintain our qualitative edge over China,but what has emerged after the summit,is that the economic relationship is also being fast-tracked,a very welcome result,which will benefit both nations immensely.I forsee that in the future,there will be a greater involvement economically between the two countries which will cement ties even further.The production of Ru civil aircraft in India is the next big milestone approaching.

PS:To sum up the state of real power these days,enjoy this cartoon in today's Telegraph UK.It shows passengers in a UK ferry with the captain on the tannoy."The Captain has sighted the Russian Navy.England expoects every passenger to do their duty!"

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09 ... ober-2016/)

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 21 Oct 2016 19:34

^^Sorry state of affairs - that it took the current regime to figure out we need a 'huge' economic relationship in addition to defense purchases to stop (even temporarily) russia from sliding down to cheen camp.

Modi is doubling down on the strategy (mil + eco) and balancing between unkil and bear hoping to get what we want 'faster'. But cheen has added a 3rd dimension to it's partnership with the bear - a guise of doing joint ops. may be a few namesake boots on the ground in syria and probably a tacit understanding of support in indo-vietnam sea to support in syria.

That is something modi will not do in the short term (I can't be sure but I haven't seen any signs of it yet). On the other hand we may do it with unkil in the very into-vietnam sea. Interesting times..

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Oct 2016 21:26

P. S. Raghavan - Reinventing old links

P.S. Raghavan is a former diplomat, and was Ambassador of India to Russia (2014-16).

The India-Russia summit in Goa on October 15 was high on both symbolism and substance. The joint dedication by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin of Unit 2 of the Kudankulam power plant and the “pouring of concrete” for Units 3 and 4 projected a unique partnership in nuclear energy: eight years after India’s foreign collaborations in civil nuclear energy were legitimised, Russia remains the only foreign country involved in nuclear power production in India. Mr. Modi invoked a Russian proverb to reaffirm India-Russia friendship in a changing world: “An old friend is better than two new ones.” The informality of a one-to-one conversation of the leaders over lunch also showcased the intimacy of relations.

Pillars of the partnership

The bilateral agreements and the joint statement contained significant substance. The three defence cooperation projects are notable, not only for their functional importance, but also for the speed of their progress from announcement to agreement. The decision to jointly manufacture Kamov Ka226T helicopters in India was announced in 2014, an Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) was concluded in 2015, and a shareholders’ agreement was signed in Goa. The S-400 air defence system and building of naval frigates have taken an even shorter time from conception to IGA. This is a refreshing departure from the glacial progress of most defence projects. Two other decisions could have a far-reaching impact on India-Russia defence cooperation: the establishment of a ministerial-level Military Industrial Conference to identify new projects and resolve pending issues, and a Science and Technology Commission to facilitate development and sharing of cutting-edge technologies.

These agreements consolidate Russia’s position as India’s principal defence partner. Over the past 10 years, Russia provided 70 per cent of India’s defence imports; the U.S. was next with 14 per cent. About 70 per cent of our weapons and equipment are of Russian or Soviet origin. Diversification of defence acquisitions will necessarily be an extended process. The Russian partnership has a role even in this process: it can be leveraged to increase benefit from other partnerships. Whether it is technology or other support, the Russian benchmark is what other partnerships will be pressed to match. The more we raise this benchmark, the more we benefit.

The effort to strengthen non-defence pillars of the India-Russia partnership shows progress. Agreements for Units 5 and 6 in Kudankulam are under finalisation and six more units are in the pipeline. There are major developments in hydrocarbons: in the last four months alone, Indian companies have invested about $5.5 billion in the Russian oil and gas industry. Equally significant is the acquisition, by a consortium led by Russian oil major Rosneft, of about 98 per cent of Essar Oil and its Vadinar port in a cash deal worth $13 billion. A joint fund of $1 billion, equally shared by Russian sovereign fund RDIF and our National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), is to promote investment in infrastructure and technology projects. The agreement for information security cooperation should enable India to benefit from Russia’s globally acknowledged expertise in cyber technologies. There has been a significant increase in university exchanges and joint science and technology research projects funded by the two governments.

Areas that need improvement

As yet, however, the effort to broad-base the India-Russia economic partnership has not percolated fully to our private sector industry, whose attitudes are shaped by some experiences of the past and unflattering images of Russia in the international media. The popular narrative of a floundering Russian economy distorts reality. International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics highlight some strong fundamentals of the Russian economy: a healthy current account surplus, low unemployment (under 6 per cent), undervalued corporate stocks and external sovereign debt of only 13 per cent of GDP. The IMF has progressively upgraded its outlook on the Russian economy, now predicting growth of over 1 per cent in 2017.

There is also misinformation about sanctions. The sanctions against Russia bind only a few countries — G7 and the European Union — and are specific in their application. European businesses have found channels to circumvent them. Recent investments in Russia by our hydrocarbons companies have also shown the way. The RDIF-NIIF fund provides an opportunity to cast off misconceptions about the Russian economy and sanctions.

The joint statement declares “zero tolerance for direct or indirect support of terrorism”, stressing the need “to deny safe havens to terrorists”. In Afghanistan too, it calls for eliminating “terror sanctuaries, safe havens and other forms of support to terrorists”. The target of these references is clear.

Russia reaffirmed support for India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council. India “recognised” Russia’s efforts for a political settlement in Syria. The call for full implementation of the Minsk Agreements of February 2015 echoes Russia’s position on Ukraine.

Diplomatic norms preclude public airing of areas of “concern” in the relationship that were discussed in the closed-door meetings. On the Indian side, these relate to aspects of Russia-China relations and Russia-Pakistan defence links — dramatically highlighted by joint military drills barely a week after the Uri attack. India’s Foreign Secretary confirmed in his press briefing that India received satisfactory assurance that Russia will not take any step detrimental to India’s security interests. The joint military drills have been privately explained by Russians as inspired by elements inimical to India in the Russian establishment. India cannot accept this explanation, even if it is true. As a former Indian Foreign Secretary wrote recently, this action is as provocative as a joint India-Ukraine military exercise near Crimea would be to Russia. Ways have to be found to prevent such crossed wires. On Russia’s arms supplies to Pakistan, the CEO of Rostec, the apex holding company of the Russian defence industry, confirmed publicly that besides four Mi-35 helicopters, no other military equipment supply to Pakistan is in the pipeline. While welcome, this assurance needs a continued reality check.

The pursuit of strategic interests in the global geopolitical environment dictates alignments along multiple axes. Russia pursues a “multi-vector” foreign policy, dealing with countries of widely divergent perspectives. Contacts with Japan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are examples. The partnership with China and dalliance with Pakistan are part of this mix. Equally, India is broad-basing its international engagement to maximise its room for manoeuvre.

This new dynamic has not diminished the political and strategic relevance of India-Russia relations. India-Russia, India-U.S.-Japan and India-West Asia alignments are not mutually exclusive. Some strands of cooperation from these alignments could intertwine, since there are common interests across them.

A frank and continuous high-level dialogue, reinforced by regular backchannel communications, should ensure that each partner remains sensitive to the core concerns of the other and discordant public messaging is avoided.

P.S. Raghavan is a former diplomat, and was Ambassador of India to Russia (2014-16). The views expressed are personal.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 22 Oct 2016 21:34

Mr Raghavan,s position is pretty much similar to my own. good article.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Oct 2016 05:35

http://www.newsweek.com/india-russia-vl ... 1339?rx=us
WHAT IS RUSSIA'S PLAN WITH INDIA?

On the weekend of October 15 and 16, Russian president Vladimir Putin visited India for the bilateral meeting of leaders of Russia and India, and the BRICS summit in Goa. As usual, president Putin spent few hours in India.This made it more difficult to cover all the important issues of the strategic partnership between Russia and India. Russia seemed reluctant to go into details on some issues. Pakistan was one of them.As ex-speaker of the State Duma Sergey Naryshkin, who is now chief of Foreign Intelligence Service, noted in 2015, the cooperation of Russia and Pakistan has “particular and intrinsic value.” In other words, the most comfortable position for Russians is to have separate tracks and approaches with Pakistan and India.
But it doesn't go down well in south Asia, and it isn't acceptable for Indians, who are following the dramatic development of the military cooperation between Russia and Pakistan with growing concern. Just a week before Putin’s visit, Russia and Pakistan held joint military exercises, Druzhba-2016 (Friendship-2016).Moscow and Islamabad initially agreed trainings in two places, including Rattu in Gilgit-Baltistan, which is seen by Delhi as an Indian territory, occupied by Pakistan. However, on September 18, there was an attack on a military facility of the Indian Armed Forces in Uri, a town in the Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir. India blamed the attack on a Pakistan-based jihadi group, and the situation added to anger in India over its strategic partner, Russia, deciding to undertake military drills with Pakistan.In response to the Indian reaction Russia decided to hold Druzhba-2016 exercises only in Cherat in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa region, rather than in in the disputed region of Gilgit-Baltistan. It would have been wiser to postpone the drills if not to cancel them at all, if Russia sought to take into account the negative feelings of India’s bureaucracy. Yet, to India, Russian authorities seemed almost deaf to voices from Delhi.
In general, before and during Putin's visit to India there was little explanation from the Russian side as to why Russia had decided to boost military cooperation with Pakistan. Indians hardly took seriously the words of the Russian ambassador Alexander Kadakin, as reported in India Times: “"India should not be concerned about military exercises between Russia and Pakistan because the theme of the exercise is anti-terror fighting. [It's] in India’s interests that we teach the Pakistani army not to use itself for terror attacks against India.” The key point of the Indian position, that it considered Pakistan not only part of solution of the terrorist threat in South Asia, but also part of the terrorism problem, was not addressed by the Russian authorities.For Indian leaders the bilateral summit in Goa became a unique opportunity to convince Russia to change its course in south Asia, and to understand the Russian position about hot topics in the region, including cross-border terrorism and the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. But when prime minister Narendra Modi explained Indian concerns to president Putin, the Russian response seemed less concerned than expected. Just before Putin’s visit to India, Russia's land force commander-in-chief general Oleg Salyukov confirmed that Russia would hold another round of military exercises with Pakistan in 2017.As for now it looks like Russia doesn’t want to change its course in south Asia. However, observers could see that the Russian delegation was warmly welcomed by Indian counterparts at the BRICS summit. It might seem like India’s anger over the military cooperation between Russia and Pakistan was over. Yet it would be wrong for Russians to become complacent.
The positive coverage in India could be explained in two ways. First, political leaders of Russia and India decided not to let hot issues leave closed doors. It is in the interests of Putin and Modi to show cordial relations between Russia and India, each for different reasons. At a time of big problems with the West, Moscow tried to show that it has close friends and almost allies around the world. For Modi it was important to show that the foreign policy of India remains diversified and balanced (not pro-American as it’s seen by some inside and outside India).The second explanation of the positive reaction is that for the Indian side it wouldn't be wise to focus on the drills with Pakistan at a time when they are agreeing the purchase of S-400, stealth frigates, and, reports suggest, the possible lease of a second nuclear submarine. How else could Delhi could give the green light to such strategic projects with the Russians, whose flirting with Pakistan gives them reason for serious concerns?Being very interested in such projects, India seemed to prefer to stay mute over the issue of the relations between Russia and Pakistan. Moscow could use the planned military-technology cooperation to tackle Delhi's openly negative reaction to the Druzhba-2016 drills. It looks like Moscow succeeded in doing this.It is widely believed that the Russian leadership is stronger at tactics, short-term planning, than at strategy and long-term foreign policy. If that is the case, the Russian strategic partnership with India may become a victim of this.
Moscow will remain one of the key sources of military technologies for India for many years. No doubt, the Indian path towards acquiring strategic military technologies would be harder and longer without Russian assistance. Moscow played a very important role in the development of the civilian nuclear sector of India. At the summit in Goa, Moscow confirmed its intention to be one of the key players in the oil and gas sector of the Indian economy. And Indians appreciate that.But the problem is that these long-term projects may be developed separately from the wider relationship between Russia and India, where there is poorer economic interdependence, weaker political contacts, and bigger suspiciousness and even mistrust. Russian tactical gains in the fields of military technologies and energy may be sunk by strategic failures in political and economic relations between Russia and India. To avoid this Russia badly needs to produce a long-term strategy towards India and the region of south Asia, and to stop thinking about India and Pakistan tactically and separately.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 23 Oct 2016 15:13

Another way to look at this is that Chinkil arm twisted Ruskies. Russians did not cancel the joint exerise with Pakis mainly because it will make their new partner-in-syria against West, China, unhappy. From Paki point of view their new Gubo master tarrell than mountain delivered the goods in the form of new global connections. There was Chinese influence in the way Pakis pushed away US too. India, as usual, will always take a neutral stand when it comes to bigger global issues like Syria and Afghanistan. This will always make our relationship with the likes of Russi and US a tactical move. So India ends up as the losing side whether it is vying for relationship with US or Russia. This will be the case until India steps up and wield our influence in a more overt way in the world.

Modi might take that step by aligning with US in the south China sea crisis in a very open and aggressive way. If that happens, it will chart a new course for India in geopolitics for sure.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Oct 2016 17:08

India supports Russia/China position on Syria , sushma swaraj said so in many words.

http://googleweblight.com/?lite_url=htt ... wkBAQebyqg

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 23 Oct 2016 17:11

So unkil will now maintain distance. Neither here nor there, again.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 24 Oct 2016 00:57

I think this is Putin's way of signaling his displeasure about LEMOA and any other future military contracts with USA.

Modi's bonhomie with USA/Obama is more than just tactical. if we're signing permanent military/logistics agreements with USA, I think Russia sees that as a reorientation of India into USA's camp.

Given India's place on the map, I think this is a strategic blunder. But what do I know...I'm just a naysayer. Since Modi is doing it, surely it must be pro-India. Nevermind that a similar move by UPA/Sonia would be seen as nothing less than outright treachery.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 24 Oct 2016 01:00

India's strategy is called "Hedging". We will always be neither here nor there but it serves Indian interests.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 24 Oct 2016 01:31

Dilbu wrote:So unkil will now maintain distance. Neither here nor there, again.

India is now in a path for increasing global influence.

Russia and China are embracing India by using BRICS.

It is not India going after them. Russia is using the old partnership to make sure that Its influence in Indian global outreach will remain and is still dominant.

India has to create its own India First doctrine and go global

US will accept this and will adjust.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 24 Oct 2016 09:10

Dilbu wrote:So unkil will now maintain distance. Neither here nor there, again.

The news Austin posted is from 23 Aug 16. This was well before BRICS summit. India had already taken its position.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Oct 2016 11:58

A gentle reminder from Russia,which states that" it is willing to go (for India),where no nation has gone before!"

http://www.defencenews.in/article/We-ar ... _::_RUSSIA

We are an Ally who stood by India in its darkest hours :: RUSSIA
Facebook Twitter Google+ Linked in
Sunday, October 23, 2016
By: Indian Express

With deals over USD 12 billion in kitty this month, including leasing of a second nuclear submarine, Russia hopes to bag more projects as it termed itself as not just a business partner but an “ally” who stood by India in its “darkest hours”. Russia is eying the multi-billion dollar deal for P75-I project of India under which six conventional submarines are to be built with Air Independent Propulsion systems and the next aircraft carrier project besides the deal to jointly develop a fifth generation fighter aircraft.

Asserting that there is no limit to what India and Russia can do together, a top Russian defense official claimed the US and Europeans can never give what Moscow can and has offered. “We are ready not just to deliver most serious weapons, most important weapons but continue to give our state of art technology,” Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec State Corporation, an umbrella organisation of 700 hi-tech civilian and military firms, told PTI.

“Russia is a friend, an ally and not a business partner. Russia stood by India during its darkest hours. Next year will mark 70 years of our relationship. It is a long time,” he said and noted that Russia had stood by India when it faced sanctions after the 1998 nuclear tests.

“Not so in the recent past, when India was under sanctions, we were pretty much the only partner for India. “Russia has been a partner not only in every day military supplies but also most sensitive and most important supplies including a nuclear submarine which was rented to India for you to use,” said Chemezov who is also a close aide of Russian President Vladmir Putin.

“Come to think about it, I would not imagine any other country to do that, he said. Not in the past or in the future. I cannot imagine US or Europe giving India such a strategic asset,” he said when asked about the tough competition that US and Europe are giving to Russia in the Indian defence market. Not only did Russia lease out a nuclear powered submarine, it actively helped in the building India’s first indigenous nuclear weapon carrying capable submarine INS Arihant which has been inducted into the Indian Navy.

Chemezov said “it is a very special year for us and will be marked by major projects and things are starting already.” He, however, admitted that from a third person’s point of view, there might have been some decline in some areas of defense between the two countries. US and some European countries have managed to strike mega deals with India which the Russians were also competing for.

“It is not a linear sort of relationship. We feel that ties are definitely developing and increasing,” he said. Giving example of the deadly BrahMos missile, Chemezov said that not only has Russia delivered high value equipment but has also collaborated with India on developing strategic assets.

He pointed out that in late 1990s, Russia had transferred technology for Su30 MKI, India’s frontline fighter aircraft. “At that point of time, it was our most modern equipment, our most modern plane. When we had actually signed that agreement, Russia did not even equip its army with this.

“This was basically our newest highest technology. That shows and speaks about our relationship with India,” he said. He also gave the example of T90 tanks, saying they are “not in anyway less but in many way, modern than any advanced US or European technologies”. He said there is scope for cooperation in the P75-I and the aircraft carrier project.

“There is definitely scope for both of those. There is pretty much no limit to what we could do together. Anything that is within our realm of things and possibilities, means it is the same with India,” he said.

Chemezov said that Russia has already submitted its proposals for both projects.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Oct 2016 14:44

Russia should be content with what they are getting.

No place for Russia in P75I, as seeing their pathetic torpedos blow up submarines in dock.

We need torpedos like SeaHake with 104 kilometer range, for scorpenes and Aridaman onwards plus for P75I.

So most probably Germans it will be, anyway in all these deals we've been pleasing all US, Russia & french but left out germans. Since our arms procurement has only one purpose to please the foreign powers, why apartheid against germans, let them have some orders too.

zoverian · Post by **zoverian** » 24 Oct 2016 15:23

Manish_Sharma wrote: Since our arms procurement has only one purpose to please the foreign powers, why apartheid against germans, let them have some orders too.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 24 Oct 2016 15:46

devesh wrote:I think this is Putin's way of signaling his displeasure about LEMOA and any other future military contracts with USA.

Modi's bonhomie with USA/Obama is more than just tactical. if we're signing permanent military/logistics agreements with USA, I think Russia sees that as a reorientation of India into USA's camp.

Given India's place on the map, I think this is a strategic blunder. But what do I know...I'm just a naysayer. Since Modi is doing it, surely it must be pro-India. Nevermind that a similar move by UPA/Sonia would be seen as nothing less than outright treachery.

+1 saar. Could not agree more.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 25 Oct 2016 08:02

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 25 Oct 2016 08:05